Aggregator

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and scattered damaging winds are possible through early evening across parts of the Southeast States. ...Southeast... An extensive swath of stratiform rain is ongoing across parts of GA/SC to the northeast of deeper convection that extends towards the central Gulf Coast. This ongoing activity will play a pivotal role in the overall severe threat in terms of both magnitude and timing. Latest guidance has generally trended towards more probable deep convection evolving east from the central Gulf Coast vicinity across parts of north FL and south GA during the morning to afternoon. This should occur as greater diurnal surface heating ensues ahead of it over the FL Peninsula. Low-level hodographs will be enlarged early with a gradual weakening trend into the afternoon as flow becomes veered and wanes. As such, a relative peak in the tornado/wind threat may occur during the late morning to early afternoon. Farther north into the Carolinas, the severe threat appears conditional on sufficient destabilization in the wake of the extensive rain swath shifting east-northeast through this morning. Guidance is insistent that at least weak surface-based instability should develop by afternoon. But with the likelihood of deep convection persisting in south GA/north FL, and recent observational trends, MLCAPE should tend to be rather limited. Still, with appreciable mid-level height falls and strong low to deep-layer shear, the conditional setup could favor a few low-topped supercells in the afternoon with a tornado/localized wind threat. ..Grams/Thornton.. 03/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and scattered damaging winds are possible through early evening across parts of the Southeast States. ...Southeast... An extensive swath of stratiform rain is ongoing across parts of GA/SC to the northeast of deeper convection that extends towards the central Gulf Coast. This ongoing activity will play a pivotal role in the overall severe threat in terms of both magnitude and timing. Latest guidance has generally trended towards more probable deep convection evolving east from the central Gulf Coast vicinity across parts of north FL and south GA during the morning to afternoon. This should occur as greater diurnal surface heating ensues ahead of it over the FL Peninsula. Low-level hodographs will be enlarged early with a gradual weakening trend into the afternoon as flow becomes veered and wanes. As such, a relative peak in the tornado/wind threat may occur during the late morning to early afternoon. Farther north into the Carolinas, the severe threat appears conditional on sufficient destabilization in the wake of the extensive rain swath shifting east-northeast through this morning. Guidance is insistent that at least weak surface-based instability should develop by afternoon. But with the likelihood of deep convection persisting in south GA/north FL, and recent observational trends, MLCAPE should tend to be rather limited. Still, with appreciable mid-level height falls and strong low to deep-layer shear, the conditional setup could favor a few low-topped supercells in the afternoon with a tornado/localized wind threat. ..Grams/Thornton.. 03/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and scattered damaging winds are possible through early evening across parts of the Southeast States. ...Southeast... An extensive swath of stratiform rain is ongoing across parts of GA/SC to the northeast of deeper convection that extends towards the central Gulf Coast. This ongoing activity will play a pivotal role in the overall severe threat in terms of both magnitude and timing. Latest guidance has generally trended towards more probable deep convection evolving east from the central Gulf Coast vicinity across parts of north FL and south GA during the morning to afternoon. This should occur as greater diurnal surface heating ensues ahead of it over the FL Peninsula. Low-level hodographs will be enlarged early with a gradual weakening trend into the afternoon as flow becomes veered and wanes. As such, a relative peak in the tornado/wind threat may occur during the late morning to early afternoon. Farther north into the Carolinas, the severe threat appears conditional on sufficient destabilization in the wake of the extensive rain swath shifting east-northeast through this morning. Guidance is insistent that at least weak surface-based instability should develop by afternoon. But with the likelihood of deep convection persisting in south GA/north FL, and recent observational trends, MLCAPE should tend to be rather limited. Still, with appreciable mid-level height falls and strong low to deep-layer shear, the conditional setup could favor a few low-topped supercells in the afternoon with a tornado/localized wind threat. ..Grams/Thornton.. 03/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and scattered damaging winds are possible through early evening across parts of the Southeast States. ...Southeast... An extensive swath of stratiform rain is ongoing across parts of GA/SC to the northeast of deeper convection that extends towards the central Gulf Coast. This ongoing activity will play a pivotal role in the overall severe threat in terms of both magnitude and timing. Latest guidance has generally trended towards more probable deep convection evolving east from the central Gulf Coast vicinity across parts of north FL and south GA during the morning to afternoon. This should occur as greater diurnal surface heating ensues ahead of it over the FL Peninsula. Low-level hodographs will be enlarged early with a gradual weakening trend into the afternoon as flow becomes veered and wanes. As such, a relative peak in the tornado/wind threat may occur during the late morning to early afternoon. Farther north into the Carolinas, the severe threat appears conditional on sufficient destabilization in the wake of the extensive rain swath shifting east-northeast through this morning. Guidance is insistent that at least weak surface-based instability should develop by afternoon. But with the likelihood of deep convection persisting in south GA/north FL, and recent observational trends, MLCAPE should tend to be rather limited. Still, with appreciable mid-level height falls and strong low to deep-layer shear, the conditional setup could favor a few low-topped supercells in the afternoon with a tornado/localized wind threat. ..Grams/Thornton.. 03/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and scattered damaging winds are possible through early evening across parts of the Southeast States. ...Southeast... An extensive swath of stratiform rain is ongoing across parts of GA/SC to the northeast of deeper convection that extends towards the central Gulf Coast. This ongoing activity will play a pivotal role in the overall severe threat in terms of both magnitude and timing. Latest guidance has generally trended towards more probable deep convection evolving east from the central Gulf Coast vicinity across parts of north FL and south GA during the morning to afternoon. This should occur as greater diurnal surface heating ensues ahead of it over the FL Peninsula. Low-level hodographs will be enlarged early with a gradual weakening trend into the afternoon as flow becomes veered and wanes. As such, a relative peak in the tornado/wind threat may occur during the late morning to early afternoon. Farther north into the Carolinas, the severe threat appears conditional on sufficient destabilization in the wake of the extensive rain swath shifting east-northeast through this morning. Guidance is insistent that at least weak surface-based instability should develop by afternoon. But with the likelihood of deep convection persisting in south GA/north FL, and recent observational trends, MLCAPE should tend to be rather limited. Still, with appreciable mid-level height falls and strong low to deep-layer shear, the conditional setup could favor a few low-topped supercells in the afternoon with a tornado/localized wind threat. ..Grams/Thornton.. 03/09/2024 Read more

MD 0208 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA INTO SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA AND THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0208 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Areas affected...southeastern Alabama into southwestern Georgia and the eastern Florida Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 090144Z - 090415Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...The area across southeastern Alabama into southwestern Georgia and the eastern Florida Panhandle will be monitored for potential severe risk later this evening into the early morning. DISCUSSION...A large area of ongoing convection along a stationary front draped across the Gulf northward into portions of southern Mississippi and southern/central Alabama has struggled to organize this evening given the poor thermodynamic profiles as the warm sector has struggled to advance inland. Dew points are largely in the mid -60s along the immediate coast of Florida into southern Alabama/Georgia. Shear profiles have remained supportive of more organized convection but forcing along the stationary boundary in tandem with the main upper level wave has led to multi-cell clusters with transient embedded rotation. Through the rest of the evening/early morning, this area of convection is expected to move east and northeast. CAMs continue to indicate the possibility of addition thunderstorm development overnight, with potential for more discrete supercell development as better moisture works inland. Given the favorable shear profiles, with effective SRH around 200-300 m2/s2, it is possible that an isolated tornado risk could persist into the early morning. Given uncertainty on thermodynamics and redevelopment/storm mode, this area will need to be monitored for watch potential in the coming hours. ..Thornton/Thompson.. 03/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... LAT...LON 30578491 30238627 30248779 30488789 30868793 31518729 31758698 32038623 32088559 32108514 32118486 31988458 31748441 31288445 30938450 30688457 30578491 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO SOUTHWEST GA... ...SUMMARY... Potential for a couple tornadoes and locally damaging winds may persist overnight from the central Gulf Coast northeast across parts of south Alabama to central Georgia. ...Central Gulf Coast to central GA... Extensive, non-severe convection is ongoing across most of the region across a southwest to northeast-oriented quasi-stationary front. Rather rich Gulf moisture (characterized by 2"+ PW values per the 00Z LIX sounding) will continue to advect northeast and maintain a conditionally favorable warm sector for nocturnal tornado potential. Inland penetration of instability amid weak mid-level lapse rates will remain tempered, with MLCAPE at or above 500 J/kg likely only reaching into parts of south AL and the western FL Panhandle. Recent HRRR/RRFS guidance suggests regenerative convection may be reinvigorated overnight, initiating across the central Gulf Coast and spreading northeast along the baroclinic zone. Stronger low-level flow/shear will gradually shift east-northeast with time, further confining the low-probability tornado/wind threat in the early morning. ..Grams.. 03/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO SOUTHWEST GA... ...SUMMARY... Potential for a couple tornadoes and locally damaging winds may persist overnight from the central Gulf Coast northeast across parts of south Alabama to central Georgia. ...Central Gulf Coast to central GA... Extensive, non-severe convection is ongoing across most of the region across a southwest to northeast-oriented quasi-stationary front. Rather rich Gulf moisture (characterized by 2"+ PW values per the 00Z LIX sounding) will continue to advect northeast and maintain a conditionally favorable warm sector for nocturnal tornado potential. Inland penetration of instability amid weak mid-level lapse rates will remain tempered, with MLCAPE at or above 500 J/kg likely only reaching into parts of south AL and the western FL Panhandle. Recent HRRR/RRFS guidance suggests regenerative convection may be reinvigorated overnight, initiating across the central Gulf Coast and spreading northeast along the baroclinic zone. Stronger low-level flow/shear will gradually shift east-northeast with time, further confining the low-probability tornado/wind threat in the early morning. ..Grams.. 03/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO SOUTHWEST GA... ...SUMMARY... Potential for a couple tornadoes and locally damaging winds may persist overnight from the central Gulf Coast northeast across parts of south Alabama to central Georgia. ...Central Gulf Coast to central GA... Extensive, non-severe convection is ongoing across most of the region across a southwest to northeast-oriented quasi-stationary front. Rather rich Gulf moisture (characterized by 2"+ PW values per the 00Z LIX sounding) will continue to advect northeast and maintain a conditionally favorable warm sector for nocturnal tornado potential. Inland penetration of instability amid weak mid-level lapse rates will remain tempered, with MLCAPE at or above 500 J/kg likely only reaching into parts of south AL and the western FL Panhandle. Recent HRRR/RRFS guidance suggests regenerative convection may be reinvigorated overnight, initiating across the central Gulf Coast and spreading northeast along the baroclinic zone. Stronger low-level flow/shear will gradually shift east-northeast with time, further confining the low-probability tornado/wind threat in the early morning. ..Grams.. 03/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO SOUTHWEST GA... ...SUMMARY... Potential for a couple tornadoes and locally damaging winds may persist overnight from the central Gulf Coast northeast across parts of south Alabama to central Georgia. ...Central Gulf Coast to central GA... Extensive, non-severe convection is ongoing across most of the region across a southwest to northeast-oriented quasi-stationary front. Rather rich Gulf moisture (characterized by 2"+ PW values per the 00Z LIX sounding) will continue to advect northeast and maintain a conditionally favorable warm sector for nocturnal tornado potential. Inland penetration of instability amid weak mid-level lapse rates will remain tempered, with MLCAPE at or above 500 J/kg likely only reaching into parts of south AL and the western FL Panhandle. Recent HRRR/RRFS guidance suggests regenerative convection may be reinvigorated overnight, initiating across the central Gulf Coast and spreading northeast along the baroclinic zone. Stronger low-level flow/shear will gradually shift east-northeast with time, further confining the low-probability tornado/wind threat in the early morning. ..Grams.. 03/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO SOUTHWEST GA... ...SUMMARY... Potential for a couple tornadoes and locally damaging winds may persist overnight from the central Gulf Coast northeast across parts of south Alabama to central Georgia. ...Central Gulf Coast to central GA... Extensive, non-severe convection is ongoing across most of the region across a southwest to northeast-oriented quasi-stationary front. Rather rich Gulf moisture (characterized by 2"+ PW values per the 00Z LIX sounding) will continue to advect northeast and maintain a conditionally favorable warm sector for nocturnal tornado potential. Inland penetration of instability amid weak mid-level lapse rates will remain tempered, with MLCAPE at or above 500 J/kg likely only reaching into parts of south AL and the western FL Panhandle. Recent HRRR/RRFS guidance suggests regenerative convection may be reinvigorated overnight, initiating across the central Gulf Coast and spreading northeast along the baroclinic zone. Stronger low-level flow/shear will gradually shift east-northeast with time, further confining the low-probability tornado/wind threat in the early morning. ..Grams.. 03/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO SOUTHWEST GA... ...SUMMARY... Potential for a couple tornadoes and locally damaging winds may persist overnight from the central Gulf Coast northeast across parts of south Alabama to central Georgia. ...Central Gulf Coast to central GA... Extensive, non-severe convection is ongoing across most of the region across a southwest to northeast-oriented quasi-stationary front. Rather rich Gulf moisture (characterized by 2"+ PW values per the 00Z LIX sounding) will continue to advect northeast and maintain a conditionally favorable warm sector for nocturnal tornado potential. Inland penetration of instability amid weak mid-level lapse rates will remain tempered, with MLCAPE at or above 500 J/kg likely only reaching into parts of south AL and the western FL Panhandle. Recent HRRR/RRFS guidance suggests regenerative convection may be reinvigorated overnight, initiating across the central Gulf Coast and spreading northeast along the baroclinic zone. Stronger low-level flow/shear will gradually shift east-northeast with time, further confining the low-probability tornado/wind threat in the early morning. ..Grams.. 03/09/2024 Read more

WW 0032 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 32 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW HUM TO 30 ESE MCB TO 40 E PIB TO 40 SE MEI AND 15 ESE MSY TO 35 SSW PIB TO 60 SSE MEI TO 60 ESE MEI. ..KERR..03/09/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB...LCH...LIX...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 32 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-025-097-129-090140- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN CLARKE MOBILE WASHINGTON LAC051-071-087-090140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE JEFFERSON ORLEANS ST. BERNARD MSC039-041-045-047-059-111-131-090140- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GEORGE GREENE HANCOCK HARRISON JACKSON PERRY Read more

WW 0032 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 32 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW HUM TO 30 ESE MCB TO 40 E PIB TO 40 SE MEI AND 15 ESE MSY TO 35 SSW PIB TO 60 SSE MEI TO 60 ESE MEI. ..KERR..03/09/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB...LCH...LIX...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 32 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-025-097-129-090140- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN CLARKE MOBILE WASHINGTON LAC051-071-087-090140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE JEFFERSON ORLEANS ST. BERNARD MSC039-041-045-047-059-111-131-090140- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GEORGE GREENE HANCOCK HARRISON JACKSON PERRY Read more

WW 32 TORNADO AL LA MS CW 081955Z - 090300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 32 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 155 PM CST Fri Mar 8 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southwest Alabama Southern Louisiana Southern Mississippi Coastal Waters * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 155 PM until 900 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to gradually develop and intensify across the Watch area this afternoon into the evening. The stronger storms will potentially be capable of large hail, damaging gusts, and a tornado risk with the more intensely rotating thunderstorms. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles north northwest of Lafayette LA to 50 miles east northeast of Mobile AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Smith Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Mar 8 23:17:01 UTC 2024.

WW 0032 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 32 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW HUM TO 30 ESE MCB TO 40 E PIB TO 40 SE MEI. ..KERR..03/08/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB...LCH...LIX...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 32 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-025-097-129-090040- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN CLARKE MOBILE WASHINGTON LAC051-071-087-089-093-095-103-117-090040- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE JEFFERSON ORLEANS ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST ST. TAMMANY WASHINGTON MSC035-039-041-045-047-059-109-111-131-090040- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FORREST GEORGE GREENE Read more

WW 32 TORNADO AL LA MS CW 081955Z - 090300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 32 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 155 PM CST Fri Mar 8 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southwest Alabama Southern Louisiana Southern Mississippi Coastal Waters * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 155 PM until 900 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to gradually develop and intensify across the Watch area this afternoon into the evening. The stronger storms will potentially be capable of large hail, damaging gusts, and a tornado risk with the more intensely rotating thunderstorms. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles north northwest of Lafayette LA to 50 miles east northeast of Mobile AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Smith Read more

MD 0207 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 32... FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0207 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern Louisiana...southern Mississippi...and southwest Alabama Concerning...Tornado Watch 32... Valid 082142Z - 082315Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 32 continues. SUMMARY...The environment remains broadly favorable for damaging gusts and a tornado or two this afternoon across WW032. DISCUSSION...Across Tornado Watch 32, widespread convection is ongoing along a southward surging outflow across parts of southern MS and eastern LA. Transient supercell structures and bowing segments have been noted with this activity over the past several hours. The environment remains broadly favorable for damaging gusts of 50-60 mph and/or a brief tornado, given ~1000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 50-60+ kt of effective shear. However, the surging nature of outflow and numerous storm interactions may continue to limit greater severe potential within this broader cluster. Farther south, more discrete convection is ongoing across southeastern LA and far southern MS. An impressive kinematic parameter space with strong low-level shear (0-1 km SRH of 300-400 m2/s2) remains in place along with minimal inhibition. WOFS and other hi-res guidance continue to suggest a favorable environment for damaging gusts of 55-65 mph and a tornado, should better organized supercells emerge. With this in mind, the severe risk will likely continue as storms track east/northeastward the warm front over parts of southern AL. ..Lyons.. 03/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... LAT...LON 29699036 29689161 29949189 30459163 31509034 31878881 31858770 31638746 30788748 30088750 29699036 Read more

MD 0206 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTH TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0206 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0312 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Areas affected...Parts of north TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 082112Z - 082315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A couple strong storms are possible through late afternoon, with an isolated hail threat. DISCUSSION...A thunderstorm has recently developed near the southwest Metroplex, with building cumulus noted along a cold front that is moving southeastward across the region. Despite rather modest low-level moisture, diurnal heating and relatively cool midlevel temperatures are supporting MLCAPE of around 500 J/kg immediately ahead of the front. Rather strong flow above 3 km AGL is resulting in effective shear of 40+ kt, and a couple more organized storms (including potential for a transient/marginal supercell) may evolve out of developing convection. Weak buoyancy will tend to limit the overall hail risk, but isolated instances of hail between 0.75-1.5 inches in diameter cannot be ruled out through late afternoon. Relatively steep low-level lapse rates could support outflow gusts of 50-60 mph if any stronger storms can be sustained. With the threat expected to remain rather limited in magnitude and areal extent, watch issuance is unlikely. ..Dean/Smith.. 03/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD... LAT...LON 32139754 32649709 32819656 32819624 32399614 31969620 31709627 31369644 31249681 31469747 31789755 32139754 Read more