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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Tue May 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO... The Elevated area was extended westward into the White Mountains in northern Arizona. Latest fuel guidance indicates ERCs in this region are approaching the 75 percentile. Otherwise, no changes were made to the Critical area. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Tue May 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper cyclone will be situated in the northern Plains today. Strong mid-level winds will remain across the southern Rockies. A surface cyclone will deepen in the southern High Plains. ...Southwest... Strong surface winds will develop in response to the upper trough and surface cyclone to the east. Winds of 15-25 mph appear probable with locally higher speeds in terrain-favored areas. RH will fall to 10-15% though single digits could occur locally. Fuels in the area will continue to support an elevated to critical fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Tue May 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO... The Elevated area was extended westward into the White Mountains in northern Arizona. Latest fuel guidance indicates ERCs in this region are approaching the 75 percentile. Otherwise, no changes were made to the Critical area. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Tue May 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper cyclone will be situated in the northern Plains today. Strong mid-level winds will remain across the southern Rockies. A surface cyclone will deepen in the southern High Plains. ...Southwest... Strong surface winds will develop in response to the upper trough and surface cyclone to the east. Winds of 15-25 mph appear probable with locally higher speeds in terrain-favored areas. RH will fall to 10-15% though single digits could occur locally. Fuels in the area will continue to support an elevated to critical fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Tue May 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO... The Elevated area was extended westward into the White Mountains in northern Arizona. Latest fuel guidance indicates ERCs in this region are approaching the 75 percentile. Otherwise, no changes were made to the Critical area. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Tue May 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper cyclone will be situated in the northern Plains today. Strong mid-level winds will remain across the southern Rockies. A surface cyclone will deepen in the southern High Plains. ...Southwest... Strong surface winds will develop in response to the upper trough and surface cyclone to the east. Winds of 15-25 mph appear probable with locally higher speeds in terrain-favored areas. RH will fall to 10-15% though single digits could occur locally. Fuels in the area will continue to support an elevated to critical fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Tue May 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO... The Elevated area was extended westward into the White Mountains in northern Arizona. Latest fuel guidance indicates ERCs in this region are approaching the 75 percentile. Otherwise, no changes were made to the Critical area. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Tue May 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper cyclone will be situated in the northern Plains today. Strong mid-level winds will remain across the southern Rockies. A surface cyclone will deepen in the southern High Plains. ...Southwest... Strong surface winds will develop in response to the upper trough and surface cyclone to the east. Winds of 15-25 mph appear probable with locally higher speeds in terrain-favored areas. RH will fall to 10-15% though single digits could occur locally. Fuels in the area will continue to support an elevated to critical fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Tue May 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO... The Elevated area was extended westward into the White Mountains in northern Arizona. Latest fuel guidance indicates ERCs in this region are approaching the 75 percentile. Otherwise, no changes were made to the Critical area. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Tue May 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper cyclone will be situated in the northern Plains today. Strong mid-level winds will remain across the southern Rockies. A surface cyclone will deepen in the southern High Plains. ...Southwest... Strong surface winds will develop in response to the upper trough and surface cyclone to the east. Winds of 15-25 mph appear probable with locally higher speeds in terrain-favored areas. RH will fall to 10-15% though single digits could occur locally. Fuels in the area will continue to support an elevated to critical fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Tue May 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO... The Elevated area was extended westward into the White Mountains in northern Arizona. Latest fuel guidance indicates ERCs in this region are approaching the 75 percentile. Otherwise, no changes were made to the Critical area. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Tue May 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper cyclone will be situated in the northern Plains today. Strong mid-level winds will remain across the southern Rockies. A surface cyclone will deepen in the southern High Plains. ...Southwest... Strong surface winds will develop in response to the upper trough and surface cyclone to the east. Winds of 15-25 mph appear probable with locally higher speeds in terrain-favored areas. RH will fall to 10-15% though single digits could occur locally. Fuels in the area will continue to support an elevated to critical fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Tue May 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO... The Elevated area was extended westward into the White Mountains in northern Arizona. Latest fuel guidance indicates ERCs in this region are approaching the 75 percentile. Otherwise, no changes were made to the Critical area. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Tue May 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper cyclone will be situated in the northern Plains today. Strong mid-level winds will remain across the southern Rockies. A surface cyclone will deepen in the southern High Plains. ...Southwest... Strong surface winds will develop in response to the upper trough and surface cyclone to the east. Winds of 15-25 mph appear probable with locally higher speeds in terrain-favored areas. RH will fall to 10-15% though single digits could occur locally. Fuels in the area will continue to support an elevated to critical fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Tue May 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO... The Elevated area was extended westward into the White Mountains in northern Arizona. Latest fuel guidance indicates ERCs in this region are approaching the 75 percentile. Otherwise, no changes were made to the Critical area. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Tue May 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper cyclone will be situated in the northern Plains today. Strong mid-level winds will remain across the southern Rockies. A surface cyclone will deepen in the southern High Plains. ...Southwest... Strong surface winds will develop in response to the upper trough and surface cyclone to the east. Winds of 15-25 mph appear probable with locally higher speeds in terrain-favored areas. RH will fall to 10-15% though single digits could occur locally. Fuels in the area will continue to support an elevated to critical fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Tue May 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO... The Elevated area was extended westward into the White Mountains in northern Arizona. Latest fuel guidance indicates ERCs in this region are approaching the 75 percentile. Otherwise, no changes were made to the Critical area. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Tue May 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper cyclone will be situated in the northern Plains today. Strong mid-level winds will remain across the southern Rockies. A surface cyclone will deepen in the southern High Plains. ...Southwest... Strong surface winds will develop in response to the upper trough and surface cyclone to the east. Winds of 15-25 mph appear probable with locally higher speeds in terrain-favored areas. RH will fall to 10-15% though single digits could occur locally. Fuels in the area will continue to support an elevated to critical fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue May 7 16:56:01 UTC 2024.

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Tue May 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR INDIANA...WESTERN AND CENTRAL OHIO...AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening. A few tornadoes (some strong), large to very large hail, and severe/damaging winds all appear possible. ...Southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and vicinity... Considerable uncertainty remains for this forecast due largely in part to an ongoing broken squall line moving east across KY/IN/Lake Michigan and the related influences for airmass destabilization in its wake. However, clearing skies in the MCS' wake will result in a seemingly sufficient period of heating during the afternoon. Water-vapor imagery shows the deep-layer cyclone centered over the northern Great Plains. A mid-level speed max rotating through the base of the larger-scale trough will move from the mid MS Valley late this morning into the southern Great Lakes by early evening. Rapid strengthening of southwesterly 500-mb flow is forecast over northern IL into the northern half of IN through the mid-late afternoon. As an effective warm frontal zone becomes draped across the southern Great Lakes/OH Valley regions, curved low-level hodographs beneath a lengthening of the mid and upper part of the hodograph will support a supercell risk. It seems most probable based on morning model guidance that storms will initially develop across central/northern IL and move northeast into northern IN. Isolated to scattered storms are forecast to eventually develop this afternoon across parts of the OH Valley in association with warm/moist-air advection---although considerable uncertainty remains regarding this scenario. The stronger storms (i.e., supercells) will be potentially capable of a large to very large hail threat, in addition to several tornadoes (perhaps a few which may be strong). ...Arklatex to north-central and south-central TX... Not much change in the forecast thinking across the Mid South southwestward into parts of TX. Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible during mid/late afternoon. Damaging gusts and large hail would be the main concerns. The threat over the area is conditional -- more due to weak lift than thermodynamic considerations. Surface dewpoints commonly in the 70s F will underlie a deep troposphere and enough middle-level lapse rates for MLCAPE in the 3500-4500 J/kg range. Weak low-level winds will constrain hodograph size and boundary- layer shear. However, enough mid/upper flow remains to support around 45-55 kt effective-shear magnitudes, yielding a conditional supercell environment. In the absence of meaningful large-scale support, and with shallower overall lift near the front/dryline, convective coverage over this region is more in question and likely isolated. Additional convection may form overnight in a warm-advection plume near and southeast of the front, across parts of the Mid-South to Arklatex regions. Marginal hail and isolated damaging gusts would be the main concerns. ...Southeast KS late tonight... A strengthening LLJ and associated warm-air advection will be focused over the northeast OK/southeast KS region late tonight. Forecast soundings show large MUCAPE amidst strong deep-layer shear. Large hail may accompany a stronger storm or two that manages to develop/become sustained during the 08-12z period. ..Smith/Jewell.. 05/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Tue May 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR INDIANA...WESTERN AND CENTRAL OHIO...AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening. A few tornadoes (some strong), large to very large hail, and severe/damaging winds all appear possible. ...Southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and vicinity... Considerable uncertainty remains for this forecast due largely in part to an ongoing broken squall line moving east across KY/IN/Lake Michigan and the related influences for airmass destabilization in its wake. However, clearing skies in the MCS' wake will result in a seemingly sufficient period of heating during the afternoon. Water-vapor imagery shows the deep-layer cyclone centered over the northern Great Plains. A mid-level speed max rotating through the base of the larger-scale trough will move from the mid MS Valley late this morning into the southern Great Lakes by early evening. Rapid strengthening of southwesterly 500-mb flow is forecast over northern IL into the northern half of IN through the mid-late afternoon. As an effective warm frontal zone becomes draped across the southern Great Lakes/OH Valley regions, curved low-level hodographs beneath a lengthening of the mid and upper part of the hodograph will support a supercell risk. It seems most probable based on morning model guidance that storms will initially develop across central/northern IL and move northeast into northern IN. Isolated to scattered storms are forecast to eventually develop this afternoon across parts of the OH Valley in association with warm/moist-air advection---although considerable uncertainty remains regarding this scenario. The stronger storms (i.e., supercells) will be potentially capable of a large to very large hail threat, in addition to several tornadoes (perhaps a few which may be strong). ...Arklatex to north-central and south-central TX... Not much change in the forecast thinking across the Mid South southwestward into parts of TX. Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible during mid/late afternoon. Damaging gusts and large hail would be the main concerns. The threat over the area is conditional -- more due to weak lift than thermodynamic considerations. Surface dewpoints commonly in the 70s F will underlie a deep troposphere and enough middle-level lapse rates for MLCAPE in the 3500-4500 J/kg range. Weak low-level winds will constrain hodograph size and boundary- layer shear. However, enough mid/upper flow remains to support around 45-55 kt effective-shear magnitudes, yielding a conditional supercell environment. In the absence of meaningful large-scale support, and with shallower overall lift near the front/dryline, convective coverage over this region is more in question and likely isolated. Additional convection may form overnight in a warm-advection plume near and southeast of the front, across parts of the Mid-South to Arklatex regions. Marginal hail and isolated damaging gusts would be the main concerns. ...Southeast KS late tonight... A strengthening LLJ and associated warm-air advection will be focused over the northeast OK/southeast KS region late tonight. Forecast soundings show large MUCAPE amidst strong deep-layer shear. Large hail may accompany a stronger storm or two that manages to develop/become sustained during the 08-12z period. ..Smith/Jewell.. 05/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Tue May 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR INDIANA...WESTERN AND CENTRAL OHIO...AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening. A few tornadoes (some strong), large to very large hail, and severe/damaging winds all appear possible. ...Southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and vicinity... Considerable uncertainty remains for this forecast due largely in part to an ongoing broken squall line moving east across KY/IN/Lake Michigan and the related influences for airmass destabilization in its wake. However, clearing skies in the MCS' wake will result in a seemingly sufficient period of heating during the afternoon. Water-vapor imagery shows the deep-layer cyclone centered over the northern Great Plains. A mid-level speed max rotating through the base of the larger-scale trough will move from the mid MS Valley late this morning into the southern Great Lakes by early evening. Rapid strengthening of southwesterly 500-mb flow is forecast over northern IL into the northern half of IN through the mid-late afternoon. As an effective warm frontal zone becomes draped across the southern Great Lakes/OH Valley regions, curved low-level hodographs beneath a lengthening of the mid and upper part of the hodograph will support a supercell risk. It seems most probable based on morning model guidance that storms will initially develop across central/northern IL and move northeast into northern IN. Isolated to scattered storms are forecast to eventually develop this afternoon across parts of the OH Valley in association with warm/moist-air advection---although considerable uncertainty remains regarding this scenario. The stronger storms (i.e., supercells) will be potentially capable of a large to very large hail threat, in addition to several tornadoes (perhaps a few which may be strong). ...Arklatex to north-central and south-central TX... Not much change in the forecast thinking across the Mid South southwestward into parts of TX. Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible during mid/late afternoon. Damaging gusts and large hail would be the main concerns. The threat over the area is conditional -- more due to weak lift than thermodynamic considerations. Surface dewpoints commonly in the 70s F will underlie a deep troposphere and enough middle-level lapse rates for MLCAPE in the 3500-4500 J/kg range. Weak low-level winds will constrain hodograph size and boundary- layer shear. However, enough mid/upper flow remains to support around 45-55 kt effective-shear magnitudes, yielding a conditional supercell environment. In the absence of meaningful large-scale support, and with shallower overall lift near the front/dryline, convective coverage over this region is more in question and likely isolated. Additional convection may form overnight in a warm-advection plume near and southeast of the front, across parts of the Mid-South to Arklatex regions. Marginal hail and isolated damaging gusts would be the main concerns. ...Southeast KS late tonight... A strengthening LLJ and associated warm-air advection will be focused over the northeast OK/southeast KS region late tonight. Forecast soundings show large MUCAPE amidst strong deep-layer shear. Large hail may accompany a stronger storm or two that manages to develop/become sustained during the 08-12z period. ..Smith/Jewell.. 05/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Tue May 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR INDIANA...WESTERN AND CENTRAL OHIO...AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening. A few tornadoes (some strong), large to very large hail, and severe/damaging winds all appear possible. ...Southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and vicinity... Considerable uncertainty remains for this forecast due largely in part to an ongoing broken squall line moving east across KY/IN/Lake Michigan and the related influences for airmass destabilization in its wake. However, clearing skies in the MCS' wake will result in a seemingly sufficient period of heating during the afternoon. Water-vapor imagery shows the deep-layer cyclone centered over the northern Great Plains. A mid-level speed max rotating through the base of the larger-scale trough will move from the mid MS Valley late this morning into the southern Great Lakes by early evening. Rapid strengthening of southwesterly 500-mb flow is forecast over northern IL into the northern half of IN through the mid-late afternoon. As an effective warm frontal zone becomes draped across the southern Great Lakes/OH Valley regions, curved low-level hodographs beneath a lengthening of the mid and upper part of the hodograph will support a supercell risk. It seems most probable based on morning model guidance that storms will initially develop across central/northern IL and move northeast into northern IN. Isolated to scattered storms are forecast to eventually develop this afternoon across parts of the OH Valley in association with warm/moist-air advection---although considerable uncertainty remains regarding this scenario. The stronger storms (i.e., supercells) will be potentially capable of a large to very large hail threat, in addition to several tornadoes (perhaps a few which may be strong). ...Arklatex to north-central and south-central TX... Not much change in the forecast thinking across the Mid South southwestward into parts of TX. Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible during mid/late afternoon. Damaging gusts and large hail would be the main concerns. The threat over the area is conditional -- more due to weak lift than thermodynamic considerations. Surface dewpoints commonly in the 70s F will underlie a deep troposphere and enough middle-level lapse rates for MLCAPE in the 3500-4500 J/kg range. Weak low-level winds will constrain hodograph size and boundary- layer shear. However, enough mid/upper flow remains to support around 45-55 kt effective-shear magnitudes, yielding a conditional supercell environment. In the absence of meaningful large-scale support, and with shallower overall lift near the front/dryline, convective coverage over this region is more in question and likely isolated. Additional convection may form overnight in a warm-advection plume near and southeast of the front, across parts of the Mid-South to Arklatex regions. Marginal hail and isolated damaging gusts would be the main concerns. ...Southeast KS late tonight... A strengthening LLJ and associated warm-air advection will be focused over the northeast OK/southeast KS region late tonight. Forecast soundings show large MUCAPE amidst strong deep-layer shear. Large hail may accompany a stronger storm or two that manages to develop/become sustained during the 08-12z period. ..Smith/Jewell.. 05/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Tue May 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR INDIANA...WESTERN AND CENTRAL OHIO...AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening. A few tornadoes (some strong), large to very large hail, and severe/damaging winds all appear possible. ...Southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and vicinity... Considerable uncertainty remains for this forecast due largely in part to an ongoing broken squall line moving east across KY/IN/Lake Michigan and the related influences for airmass destabilization in its wake. However, clearing skies in the MCS' wake will result in a seemingly sufficient period of heating during the afternoon. Water-vapor imagery shows the deep-layer cyclone centered over the northern Great Plains. A mid-level speed max rotating through the base of the larger-scale trough will move from the mid MS Valley late this morning into the southern Great Lakes by early evening. Rapid strengthening of southwesterly 500-mb flow is forecast over northern IL into the northern half of IN through the mid-late afternoon. As an effective warm frontal zone becomes draped across the southern Great Lakes/OH Valley regions, curved low-level hodographs beneath a lengthening of the mid and upper part of the hodograph will support a supercell risk. It seems most probable based on morning model guidance that storms will initially develop across central/northern IL and move northeast into northern IN. Isolated to scattered storms are forecast to eventually develop this afternoon across parts of the OH Valley in association with warm/moist-air advection---although considerable uncertainty remains regarding this scenario. The stronger storms (i.e., supercells) will be potentially capable of a large to very large hail threat, in addition to several tornadoes (perhaps a few which may be strong). ...Arklatex to north-central and south-central TX... Not much change in the forecast thinking across the Mid South southwestward into parts of TX. Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible during mid/late afternoon. Damaging gusts and large hail would be the main concerns. The threat over the area is conditional -- more due to weak lift than thermodynamic considerations. Surface dewpoints commonly in the 70s F will underlie a deep troposphere and enough middle-level lapse rates for MLCAPE in the 3500-4500 J/kg range. Weak low-level winds will constrain hodograph size and boundary- layer shear. However, enough mid/upper flow remains to support around 45-55 kt effective-shear magnitudes, yielding a conditional supercell environment. In the absence of meaningful large-scale support, and with shallower overall lift near the front/dryline, convective coverage over this region is more in question and likely isolated. Additional convection may form overnight in a warm-advection plume near and southeast of the front, across parts of the Mid-South to Arklatex regions. Marginal hail and isolated damaging gusts would be the main concerns. ...Southeast KS late tonight... A strengthening LLJ and associated warm-air advection will be focused over the northeast OK/southeast KS region late tonight. Forecast soundings show large MUCAPE amidst strong deep-layer shear. Large hail may accompany a stronger storm or two that manages to develop/become sustained during the 08-12z period. ..Smith/Jewell.. 05/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Tue May 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR INDIANA...WESTERN AND CENTRAL OHIO...AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening. A few tornadoes (some strong), large to very large hail, and severe/damaging winds all appear possible. ...Southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and vicinity... Considerable uncertainty remains for this forecast due largely in part to an ongoing broken squall line moving east across KY/IN/Lake Michigan and the related influences for airmass destabilization in its wake. However, clearing skies in the MCS' wake will result in a seemingly sufficient period of heating during the afternoon. Water-vapor imagery shows the deep-layer cyclone centered over the northern Great Plains. A mid-level speed max rotating through the base of the larger-scale trough will move from the mid MS Valley late this morning into the southern Great Lakes by early evening. Rapid strengthening of southwesterly 500-mb flow is forecast over northern IL into the northern half of IN through the mid-late afternoon. As an effective warm frontal zone becomes draped across the southern Great Lakes/OH Valley regions, curved low-level hodographs beneath a lengthening of the mid and upper part of the hodograph will support a supercell risk. It seems most probable based on morning model guidance that storms will initially develop across central/northern IL and move northeast into northern IN. Isolated to scattered storms are forecast to eventually develop this afternoon across parts of the OH Valley in association with warm/moist-air advection---although considerable uncertainty remains regarding this scenario. The stronger storms (i.e., supercells) will be potentially capable of a large to very large hail threat, in addition to several tornadoes (perhaps a few which may be strong). ...Arklatex to north-central and south-central TX... Not much change in the forecast thinking across the Mid South southwestward into parts of TX. Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible during mid/late afternoon. Damaging gusts and large hail would be the main concerns. The threat over the area is conditional -- more due to weak lift than thermodynamic considerations. Surface dewpoints commonly in the 70s F will underlie a deep troposphere and enough middle-level lapse rates for MLCAPE in the 3500-4500 J/kg range. Weak low-level winds will constrain hodograph size and boundary- layer shear. However, enough mid/upper flow remains to support around 45-55 kt effective-shear magnitudes, yielding a conditional supercell environment. In the absence of meaningful large-scale support, and with shallower overall lift near the front/dryline, convective coverage over this region is more in question and likely isolated. Additional convection may form overnight in a warm-advection plume near and southeast of the front, across parts of the Mid-South to Arklatex regions. Marginal hail and isolated damaging gusts would be the main concerns. ...Southeast KS late tonight... A strengthening LLJ and associated warm-air advection will be focused over the northeast OK/southeast KS region late tonight. Forecast soundings show large MUCAPE amidst strong deep-layer shear. Large hail may accompany a stronger storm or two that manages to develop/become sustained during the 08-12z period. ..Smith/Jewell.. 05/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Tue May 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR INDIANA...WESTERN AND CENTRAL OHIO...AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening. A few tornadoes (some strong), large to very large hail, and severe/damaging winds all appear possible. ...Southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and vicinity... Considerable uncertainty remains for this forecast due largely in part to an ongoing broken squall line moving east across KY/IN/Lake Michigan and the related influences for airmass destabilization in its wake. However, clearing skies in the MCS' wake will result in a seemingly sufficient period of heating during the afternoon. Water-vapor imagery shows the deep-layer cyclone centered over the northern Great Plains. A mid-level speed max rotating through the base of the larger-scale trough will move from the mid MS Valley late this morning into the southern Great Lakes by early evening. Rapid strengthening of southwesterly 500-mb flow is forecast over northern IL into the northern half of IN through the mid-late afternoon. As an effective warm frontal zone becomes draped across the southern Great Lakes/OH Valley regions, curved low-level hodographs beneath a lengthening of the mid and upper part of the hodograph will support a supercell risk. It seems most probable based on morning model guidance that storms will initially develop across central/northern IL and move northeast into northern IN. Isolated to scattered storms are forecast to eventually develop this afternoon across parts of the OH Valley in association with warm/moist-air advection---although considerable uncertainty remains regarding this scenario. The stronger storms (i.e., supercells) will be potentially capable of a large to very large hail threat, in addition to several tornadoes (perhaps a few which may be strong). ...Arklatex to north-central and south-central TX... Not much change in the forecast thinking across the Mid South southwestward into parts of TX. Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible during mid/late afternoon. Damaging gusts and large hail would be the main concerns. The threat over the area is conditional -- more due to weak lift than thermodynamic considerations. Surface dewpoints commonly in the 70s F will underlie a deep troposphere and enough middle-level lapse rates for MLCAPE in the 3500-4500 J/kg range. Weak low-level winds will constrain hodograph size and boundary- layer shear. However, enough mid/upper flow remains to support around 45-55 kt effective-shear magnitudes, yielding a conditional supercell environment. In the absence of meaningful large-scale support, and with shallower overall lift near the front/dryline, convective coverage over this region is more in question and likely isolated. Additional convection may form overnight in a warm-advection plume near and southeast of the front, across parts of the Mid-South to Arklatex regions. Marginal hail and isolated damaging gusts would be the main concerns. ...Southeast KS late tonight... A strengthening LLJ and associated warm-air advection will be focused over the northeast OK/southeast KS region late tonight. Forecast soundings show large MUCAPE amidst strong deep-layer shear. Large hail may accompany a stronger storm or two that manages to develop/become sustained during the 08-12z period. ..Smith/Jewell.. 05/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Tue May 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR INDIANA...WESTERN AND CENTRAL OHIO...AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening. A few tornadoes (some strong), large to very large hail, and severe/damaging winds all appear possible. ...Southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and vicinity... Considerable uncertainty remains for this forecast due largely in part to an ongoing broken squall line moving east across KY/IN/Lake Michigan and the related influences for airmass destabilization in its wake. However, clearing skies in the MCS' wake will result in a seemingly sufficient period of heating during the afternoon. Water-vapor imagery shows the deep-layer cyclone centered over the northern Great Plains. A mid-level speed max rotating through the base of the larger-scale trough will move from the mid MS Valley late this morning into the southern Great Lakes by early evening. Rapid strengthening of southwesterly 500-mb flow is forecast over northern IL into the northern half of IN through the mid-late afternoon. As an effective warm frontal zone becomes draped across the southern Great Lakes/OH Valley regions, curved low-level hodographs beneath a lengthening of the mid and upper part of the hodograph will support a supercell risk. It seems most probable based on morning model guidance that storms will initially develop across central/northern IL and move northeast into northern IN. Isolated to scattered storms are forecast to eventually develop this afternoon across parts of the OH Valley in association with warm/moist-air advection---although considerable uncertainty remains regarding this scenario. The stronger storms (i.e., supercells) will be potentially capable of a large to very large hail threat, in addition to several tornadoes (perhaps a few which may be strong). ...Arklatex to north-central and south-central TX... Not much change in the forecast thinking across the Mid South southwestward into parts of TX. Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible during mid/late afternoon. Damaging gusts and large hail would be the main concerns. The threat over the area is conditional -- more due to weak lift than thermodynamic considerations. Surface dewpoints commonly in the 70s F will underlie a deep troposphere and enough middle-level lapse rates for MLCAPE in the 3500-4500 J/kg range. Weak low-level winds will constrain hodograph size and boundary- layer shear. However, enough mid/upper flow remains to support around 45-55 kt effective-shear magnitudes, yielding a conditional supercell environment. In the absence of meaningful large-scale support, and with shallower overall lift near the front/dryline, convective coverage over this region is more in question and likely isolated. Additional convection may form overnight in a warm-advection plume near and southeast of the front, across parts of the Mid-South to Arklatex regions. Marginal hail and isolated damaging gusts would be the main concerns. ...Southeast KS late tonight... A strengthening LLJ and associated warm-air advection will be focused over the northeast OK/southeast KS region late tonight. Forecast soundings show large MUCAPE amidst strong deep-layer shear. Large hail may accompany a stronger storm or two that manages to develop/become sustained during the 08-12z period. ..Smith/Jewell.. 05/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Tue May 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR INDIANA...WESTERN AND CENTRAL OHIO...AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening. A few tornadoes (some strong), large to very large hail, and severe/damaging winds all appear possible. ...Southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and vicinity... Considerable uncertainty remains for this forecast due largely in part to an ongoing broken squall line moving east across KY/IN/Lake Michigan and the related influences for airmass destabilization in its wake. However, clearing skies in the MCS' wake will result in a seemingly sufficient period of heating during the afternoon. Water-vapor imagery shows the deep-layer cyclone centered over the northern Great Plains. A mid-level speed max rotating through the base of the larger-scale trough will move from the mid MS Valley late this morning into the southern Great Lakes by early evening. Rapid strengthening of southwesterly 500-mb flow is forecast over northern IL into the northern half of IN through the mid-late afternoon. As an effective warm frontal zone becomes draped across the southern Great Lakes/OH Valley regions, curved low-level hodographs beneath a lengthening of the mid and upper part of the hodograph will support a supercell risk. It seems most probable based on morning model guidance that storms will initially develop across central/northern IL and move northeast into northern IN. Isolated to scattered storms are forecast to eventually develop this afternoon across parts of the OH Valley in association with warm/moist-air advection---although considerable uncertainty remains regarding this scenario. The stronger storms (i.e., supercells) will be potentially capable of a large to very large hail threat, in addition to several tornadoes (perhaps a few which may be strong). ...Arklatex to north-central and south-central TX... Not much change in the forecast thinking across the Mid South southwestward into parts of TX. Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible during mid/late afternoon. Damaging gusts and large hail would be the main concerns. The threat over the area is conditional -- more due to weak lift than thermodynamic considerations. Surface dewpoints commonly in the 70s F will underlie a deep troposphere and enough middle-level lapse rates for MLCAPE in the 3500-4500 J/kg range. Weak low-level winds will constrain hodograph size and boundary- layer shear. However, enough mid/upper flow remains to support around 45-55 kt effective-shear magnitudes, yielding a conditional supercell environment. In the absence of meaningful large-scale support, and with shallower overall lift near the front/dryline, convective coverage over this region is more in question and likely isolated. Additional convection may form overnight in a warm-advection plume near and southeast of the front, across parts of the Mid-South to Arklatex regions. Marginal hail and isolated damaging gusts would be the main concerns. ...Southeast KS late tonight... A strengthening LLJ and associated warm-air advection will be focused over the northeast OK/southeast KS region late tonight. Forecast soundings show large MUCAPE amidst strong deep-layer shear. Large hail may accompany a stronger storm or two that manages to develop/become sustained during the 08-12z period. ..Smith/Jewell.. 05/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Tue May 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR INDIANA...WESTERN AND CENTRAL OHIO...AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening. A few tornadoes (some strong), large to very large hail, and severe/damaging winds all appear possible. ...Southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and vicinity... Considerable uncertainty remains for this forecast due largely in part to an ongoing broken squall line moving east across KY/IN/Lake Michigan and the related influences for airmass destabilization in its wake. However, clearing skies in the MCS' wake will result in a seemingly sufficient period of heating during the afternoon. Water-vapor imagery shows the deep-layer cyclone centered over the northern Great Plains. A mid-level speed max rotating through the base of the larger-scale trough will move from the mid MS Valley late this morning into the southern Great Lakes by early evening. Rapid strengthening of southwesterly 500-mb flow is forecast over northern IL into the northern half of IN through the mid-late afternoon. As an effective warm frontal zone becomes draped across the southern Great Lakes/OH Valley regions, curved low-level hodographs beneath a lengthening of the mid and upper part of the hodograph will support a supercell risk. It seems most probable based on morning model guidance that storms will initially develop across central/northern IL and move northeast into northern IN. Isolated to scattered storms are forecast to eventually develop this afternoon across parts of the OH Valley in association with warm/moist-air advection---although considerable uncertainty remains regarding this scenario. The stronger storms (i.e., supercells) will be potentially capable of a large to very large hail threat, in addition to several tornadoes (perhaps a few which may be strong). ...Arklatex to north-central and south-central TX... Not much change in the forecast thinking across the Mid South southwestward into parts of TX. Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible during mid/late afternoon. Damaging gusts and large hail would be the main concerns. The threat over the area is conditional -- more due to weak lift than thermodynamic considerations. Surface dewpoints commonly in the 70s F will underlie a deep troposphere and enough middle-level lapse rates for MLCAPE in the 3500-4500 J/kg range. Weak low-level winds will constrain hodograph size and boundary- layer shear. However, enough mid/upper flow remains to support around 45-55 kt effective-shear magnitudes, yielding a conditional supercell environment. In the absence of meaningful large-scale support, and with shallower overall lift near the front/dryline, convective coverage over this region is more in question and likely isolated. Additional convection may form overnight in a warm-advection plume near and southeast of the front, across parts of the Mid-South to Arklatex regions. Marginal hail and isolated damaging gusts would be the main concerns. ...Southeast KS late tonight... A strengthening LLJ and associated warm-air advection will be focused over the northeast OK/southeast KS region late tonight. Forecast soundings show large MUCAPE amidst strong deep-layer shear. Large hail may accompany a stronger storm or two that manages to develop/become sustained during the 08-12z period. ..Smith/Jewell.. 05/07/2024 Read more