Aggregator

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN WYOMING INTO FAR SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE NORTHWEST NEBRASKA PANHANDLE... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...AND MUCH OF CENTRAL/WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS... Made significant expansion to the Elevated area to include most of Kansas, western Iowa, eastern Nebraska, southern South Dakota and eastern Wyoming. Within this Elevated area a Critical delineation has been added for eastern Wyoming and the Critical area in the High Plains has been expanded into north-central Kansas. The forecast remains on track for portions of the southern High Plains. However, 12Z forecast guidance shows dry and windy conditions extending across much of the central Plains. Critical conditions are likely in central Kansas where only minimal precipitation has fallen in the past week. Farther east relative humidity will not be as low given recent rainfall, but sustained winds near or above critical strength are still expected. Therefore, despite the recent rainfall, have expanded the Elevated to these areas to cover the threat for large fires, especially where grasses remain dormant/freeze-cured. Snowcover remains across northeast Colorado and southwest Nebraska, but outside of these areas there will be some large fire threat given the meteorological conditions. Have drawn the Elevated delineation to include areas which are free of snowcover as of this afternoon, where fine fuels have had some time to dry by tomorrow afternoon. Finally, added a critical area for east-central Wyoming. Downslope flow and a deeply mixed airmass will support sustained surface winds of 20 to 25 mph across eastern Wyoming into the Nebraska Panhandle and far southwest South Dakota. This region has seen well below normal precipitation in the past month with minimal precipitation in the past 2 weeks. Therefore, fine fuels will be sufficiently dry to carry fire. ..Bentley.. 03/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CST Sun Mar 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave will move into the Great Basin on Monday with westerly flow increasing across the Rockies and strengthening lee troughing across the Plains. Critical fire weather conditions are expected across northeastern New Mexico into portions of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and southwestern Kansas. In these regions, afternoon relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap with sustained southwest winds at 15-20 mph. Early spring green up of fine fuels, which were subsequently cured by recent freezing temperatures, has led to large fire activity in the last month across these regions. Given confidence in status of fuels and meteorological conditions, the 70 percent D3 probabilities were maintained with a D2 Critical delineation. Similar fuel conditions extend into the Elevated risk areas across east-central/south-central New Mexico and southwestern Texas. Ensemble probabilities are less supportive of sustained Critical conditions with more marginal winds across these regions. As such, D3 40 percent probabilities were kept as an Elevated delineation. Trends will continue to be monitored. Elevated fire weather conditions will extend into portions of southwestern and south-central Kansas. Guidance has more spread on afternoon relative humidity in these regions with ensemble guidance lending higher probabilities to Elevated over Critical conditions. As such, this area was also maintained in an Elevated delineation with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN WYOMING INTO FAR SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE NORTHWEST NEBRASKA PANHANDLE... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...AND MUCH OF CENTRAL/WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS... Made significant expansion to the Elevated area to include most of Kansas, western Iowa, eastern Nebraska, southern South Dakota and eastern Wyoming. Within this Elevated area a Critical delineation has been added for eastern Wyoming and the Critical area in the High Plains has been expanded into north-central Kansas. The forecast remains on track for portions of the southern High Plains. However, 12Z forecast guidance shows dry and windy conditions extending across much of the central Plains. Critical conditions are likely in central Kansas where only minimal precipitation has fallen in the past week. Farther east relative humidity will not be as low given recent rainfall, but sustained winds near or above critical strength are still expected. Therefore, despite the recent rainfall, have expanded the Elevated to these areas to cover the threat for large fires, especially where grasses remain dormant/freeze-cured. Snowcover remains across northeast Colorado and southwest Nebraska, but outside of these areas there will be some large fire threat given the meteorological conditions. Have drawn the Elevated delineation to include areas which are free of snowcover as of this afternoon, where fine fuels have had some time to dry by tomorrow afternoon. Finally, added a critical area for east-central Wyoming. Downslope flow and a deeply mixed airmass will support sustained surface winds of 20 to 25 mph across eastern Wyoming into the Nebraska Panhandle and far southwest South Dakota. This region has seen well below normal precipitation in the past month with minimal precipitation in the past 2 weeks. Therefore, fine fuels will be sufficiently dry to carry fire. ..Bentley.. 03/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CST Sun Mar 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave will move into the Great Basin on Monday with westerly flow increasing across the Rockies and strengthening lee troughing across the Plains. Critical fire weather conditions are expected across northeastern New Mexico into portions of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and southwestern Kansas. In these regions, afternoon relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap with sustained southwest winds at 15-20 mph. Early spring green up of fine fuels, which were subsequently cured by recent freezing temperatures, has led to large fire activity in the last month across these regions. Given confidence in status of fuels and meteorological conditions, the 70 percent D3 probabilities were maintained with a D2 Critical delineation. Similar fuel conditions extend into the Elevated risk areas across east-central/south-central New Mexico and southwestern Texas. Ensemble probabilities are less supportive of sustained Critical conditions with more marginal winds across these regions. As such, D3 40 percent probabilities were kept as an Elevated delineation. Trends will continue to be monitored. Elevated fire weather conditions will extend into portions of southwestern and south-central Kansas. Guidance has more spread on afternoon relative humidity in these regions with ensemble guidance lending higher probabilities to Elevated over Critical conditions. As such, this area was also maintained in an Elevated delineation with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN WYOMING INTO FAR SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE NORTHWEST NEBRASKA PANHANDLE... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...AND MUCH OF CENTRAL/WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS... Made significant expansion to the Elevated area to include most of Kansas, western Iowa, eastern Nebraska, southern South Dakota and eastern Wyoming. Within this Elevated area a Critical delineation has been added for eastern Wyoming and the Critical area in the High Plains has been expanded into north-central Kansas. The forecast remains on track for portions of the southern High Plains. However, 12Z forecast guidance shows dry and windy conditions extending across much of the central Plains. Critical conditions are likely in central Kansas where only minimal precipitation has fallen in the past week. Farther east relative humidity will not be as low given recent rainfall, but sustained winds near or above critical strength are still expected. Therefore, despite the recent rainfall, have expanded the Elevated to these areas to cover the threat for large fires, especially where grasses remain dormant/freeze-cured. Snowcover remains across northeast Colorado and southwest Nebraska, but outside of these areas there will be some large fire threat given the meteorological conditions. Have drawn the Elevated delineation to include areas which are free of snowcover as of this afternoon, where fine fuels have had some time to dry by tomorrow afternoon. Finally, added a critical area for east-central Wyoming. Downslope flow and a deeply mixed airmass will support sustained surface winds of 20 to 25 mph across eastern Wyoming into the Nebraska Panhandle and far southwest South Dakota. This region has seen well below normal precipitation in the past month with minimal precipitation in the past 2 weeks. Therefore, fine fuels will be sufficiently dry to carry fire. ..Bentley.. 03/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CST Sun Mar 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave will move into the Great Basin on Monday with westerly flow increasing across the Rockies and strengthening lee troughing across the Plains. Critical fire weather conditions are expected across northeastern New Mexico into portions of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and southwestern Kansas. In these regions, afternoon relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap with sustained southwest winds at 15-20 mph. Early spring green up of fine fuels, which were subsequently cured by recent freezing temperatures, has led to large fire activity in the last month across these regions. Given confidence in status of fuels and meteorological conditions, the 70 percent D3 probabilities were maintained with a D2 Critical delineation. Similar fuel conditions extend into the Elevated risk areas across east-central/south-central New Mexico and southwestern Texas. Ensemble probabilities are less supportive of sustained Critical conditions with more marginal winds across these regions. As such, D3 40 percent probabilities were kept as an Elevated delineation. Trends will continue to be monitored. Elevated fire weather conditions will extend into portions of southwestern and south-central Kansas. Guidance has more spread on afternoon relative humidity in these regions with ensemble guidance lending higher probabilities to Elevated over Critical conditions. As such, this area was also maintained in an Elevated delineation with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN WYOMING INTO FAR SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE NORTHWEST NEBRASKA PANHANDLE... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...AND MUCH OF CENTRAL/WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS... Made significant expansion to the Elevated area to include most of Kansas, western Iowa, eastern Nebraska, southern South Dakota and eastern Wyoming. Within this Elevated area a Critical delineation has been added for eastern Wyoming and the Critical area in the High Plains has been expanded into north-central Kansas. The forecast remains on track for portions of the southern High Plains. However, 12Z forecast guidance shows dry and windy conditions extending across much of the central Plains. Critical conditions are likely in central Kansas where only minimal precipitation has fallen in the past week. Farther east relative humidity will not be as low given recent rainfall, but sustained winds near or above critical strength are still expected. Therefore, despite the recent rainfall, have expanded the Elevated to these areas to cover the threat for large fires, especially where grasses remain dormant/freeze-cured. Snowcover remains across northeast Colorado and southwest Nebraska, but outside of these areas there will be some large fire threat given the meteorological conditions. Have drawn the Elevated delineation to include areas which are free of snowcover as of this afternoon, where fine fuels have had some time to dry by tomorrow afternoon. Finally, added a critical area for east-central Wyoming. Downslope flow and a deeply mixed airmass will support sustained surface winds of 20 to 25 mph across eastern Wyoming into the Nebraska Panhandle and far southwest South Dakota. This region has seen well below normal precipitation in the past month with minimal precipitation in the past 2 weeks. Therefore, fine fuels will be sufficiently dry to carry fire. ..Bentley.. 03/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CST Sun Mar 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave will move into the Great Basin on Monday with westerly flow increasing across the Rockies and strengthening lee troughing across the Plains. Critical fire weather conditions are expected across northeastern New Mexico into portions of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and southwestern Kansas. In these regions, afternoon relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap with sustained southwest winds at 15-20 mph. Early spring green up of fine fuels, which were subsequently cured by recent freezing temperatures, has led to large fire activity in the last month across these regions. Given confidence in status of fuels and meteorological conditions, the 70 percent D3 probabilities were maintained with a D2 Critical delineation. Similar fuel conditions extend into the Elevated risk areas across east-central/south-central New Mexico and southwestern Texas. Ensemble probabilities are less supportive of sustained Critical conditions with more marginal winds across these regions. As such, D3 40 percent probabilities were kept as an Elevated delineation. Trends will continue to be monitored. Elevated fire weather conditions will extend into portions of southwestern and south-central Kansas. Guidance has more spread on afternoon relative humidity in these regions with ensemble guidance lending higher probabilities to Elevated over Critical conditions. As such, this area was also maintained in an Elevated delineation with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential will remain low over much of the CONUS on Monday. A prior cold front passage and surface high pressure over the Mid-South and Southeast will result in a dearth of boundary-layer moisture east of the Rockies. A series of shortwave upper trough will move across the Pacific Northwest. A few thunderstorms will be possible as west/southwesterly deep-layer flow maintains a stream of moisture across the WA/OR coastal vicinity. Isolated lightning activity may be more likely overnight as steeper midlevel lapse rates/cooling aloft impinges on the region. ..Leitman.. 03/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential will remain low over much of the CONUS on Monday. A prior cold front passage and surface high pressure over the Mid-South and Southeast will result in a dearth of boundary-layer moisture east of the Rockies. A series of shortwave upper trough will move across the Pacific Northwest. A few thunderstorms will be possible as west/southwesterly deep-layer flow maintains a stream of moisture across the WA/OR coastal vicinity. Isolated lightning activity may be more likely overnight as steeper midlevel lapse rates/cooling aloft impinges on the region. ..Leitman.. 03/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential will remain low over much of the CONUS on Monday. A prior cold front passage and surface high pressure over the Mid-South and Southeast will result in a dearth of boundary-layer moisture east of the Rockies. A series of shortwave upper trough will move across the Pacific Northwest. A few thunderstorms will be possible as west/southwesterly deep-layer flow maintains a stream of moisture across the WA/OR coastal vicinity. Isolated lightning activity may be more likely overnight as steeper midlevel lapse rates/cooling aloft impinges on the region. ..Leitman.. 03/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential will remain low over much of the CONUS on Monday. A prior cold front passage and surface high pressure over the Mid-South and Southeast will result in a dearth of boundary-layer moisture east of the Rockies. A series of shortwave upper trough will move across the Pacific Northwest. A few thunderstorms will be possible as west/southwesterly deep-layer flow maintains a stream of moisture across the WA/OR coastal vicinity. Isolated lightning activity may be more likely overnight as steeper midlevel lapse rates/cooling aloft impinges on the region. ..Leitman.. 03/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential will remain low over much of the CONUS on Monday. A prior cold front passage and surface high pressure over the Mid-South and Southeast will result in a dearth of boundary-layer moisture east of the Rockies. A series of shortwave upper trough will move across the Pacific Northwest. A few thunderstorms will be possible as west/southwesterly deep-layer flow maintains a stream of moisture across the WA/OR coastal vicinity. Isolated lightning activity may be more likely overnight as steeper midlevel lapse rates/cooling aloft impinges on the region. ..Leitman.. 03/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential will remain low over much of the CONUS on Monday. A prior cold front passage and surface high pressure over the Mid-South and Southeast will result in a dearth of boundary-layer moisture east of the Rockies. A series of shortwave upper trough will move across the Pacific Northwest. A few thunderstorms will be possible as west/southwesterly deep-layer flow maintains a stream of moisture across the WA/OR coastal vicinity. Isolated lightning activity may be more likely overnight as steeper midlevel lapse rates/cooling aloft impinges on the region. ..Leitman.. 03/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential will remain low over much of the CONUS on Monday. A prior cold front passage and surface high pressure over the Mid-South and Southeast will result in a dearth of boundary-layer moisture east of the Rockies. A series of shortwave upper trough will move across the Pacific Northwest. A few thunderstorms will be possible as west/southwesterly deep-layer flow maintains a stream of moisture across the WA/OR coastal vicinity. Isolated lightning activity may be more likely overnight as steeper midlevel lapse rates/cooling aloft impinges on the region. ..Leitman.. 03/10/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CST Sun Mar 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... The surface high across the central US will shift eastward today as ridging aloft is undercut by a shortwave disturbance moving eastward across the central Plains. Pockets of breezy southwesterly surface winds will be possible across northeastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Relative humidity in this region may drop as low as 15-20 percent for locally elevated fire weather concerns. Overall, short duration and spotty coverage of overlap of breezes and low relative humidity preclude the need to include any areas with this outlook. Locally elevated meteorological conditions will be possible across the plains of eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. Recent snowfall across this region will leave availability of receptive fuels low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CST Sun Mar 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... The surface high across the central US will shift eastward today as ridging aloft is undercut by a shortwave disturbance moving eastward across the central Plains. Pockets of breezy southwesterly surface winds will be possible across northeastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Relative humidity in this region may drop as low as 15-20 percent for locally elevated fire weather concerns. Overall, short duration and spotty coverage of overlap of breezes and low relative humidity preclude the need to include any areas with this outlook. Locally elevated meteorological conditions will be possible across the plains of eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. Recent snowfall across this region will leave availability of receptive fuels low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CST Sun Mar 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... The surface high across the central US will shift eastward today as ridging aloft is undercut by a shortwave disturbance moving eastward across the central Plains. Pockets of breezy southwesterly surface winds will be possible across northeastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Relative humidity in this region may drop as low as 15-20 percent for locally elevated fire weather concerns. Overall, short duration and spotty coverage of overlap of breezes and low relative humidity preclude the need to include any areas with this outlook. Locally elevated meteorological conditions will be possible across the plains of eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. Recent snowfall across this region will leave availability of receptive fuels low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CST Sun Mar 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... The surface high across the central US will shift eastward today as ridging aloft is undercut by a shortwave disturbance moving eastward across the central Plains. Pockets of breezy southwesterly surface winds will be possible across northeastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Relative humidity in this region may drop as low as 15-20 percent for locally elevated fire weather concerns. Overall, short duration and spotty coverage of overlap of breezes and low relative humidity preclude the need to include any areas with this outlook. Locally elevated meteorological conditions will be possible across the plains of eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. Recent snowfall across this region will leave availability of receptive fuels low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CST Sun Mar 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... The surface high across the central US will shift eastward today as ridging aloft is undercut by a shortwave disturbance moving eastward across the central Plains. Pockets of breezy southwesterly surface winds will be possible across northeastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Relative humidity in this region may drop as low as 15-20 percent for locally elevated fire weather concerns. Overall, short duration and spotty coverage of overlap of breezes and low relative humidity preclude the need to include any areas with this outlook. Locally elevated meteorological conditions will be possible across the plains of eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. Recent snowfall across this region will leave availability of receptive fuels low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CST Sun Mar 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... The surface high across the central US will shift eastward today as ridging aloft is undercut by a shortwave disturbance moving eastward across the central Plains. Pockets of breezy southwesterly surface winds will be possible across northeastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Relative humidity in this region may drop as low as 15-20 percent for locally elevated fire weather concerns. Overall, short duration and spotty coverage of overlap of breezes and low relative humidity preclude the need to include any areas with this outlook. Locally elevated meteorological conditions will be possible across the plains of eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. Recent snowfall across this region will leave availability of receptive fuels low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CST Sun Mar 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... The surface high across the central US will shift eastward today as ridging aloft is undercut by a shortwave disturbance moving eastward across the central Plains. Pockets of breezy southwesterly surface winds will be possible across northeastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Relative humidity in this region may drop as low as 15-20 percent for locally elevated fire weather concerns. Overall, short duration and spotty coverage of overlap of breezes and low relative humidity preclude the need to include any areas with this outlook. Locally elevated meteorological conditions will be possible across the plains of eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. Recent snowfall across this region will leave availability of receptive fuels low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected today. ...Synopsis... A broad upper low over the eastern US is forecast to move slowly eastward today as an associated cold front moves offshore across New England and South FL. To the west, a weak Pacific upper trough will move inland with ascent overspreading the Cascades and northern Rockies. Transient ridging over the central US will keep much of the country cool and stable with dry offshore flow. Weak thunderstorms ongoing across southern New England should gradually diminish through the day as the increasingly narrow warm sector moves toward the coast. Across South FL, weak convergence along the cold front and limited large-scale ascent should keep thunderstorm coverage low. Thunderstorm chances should lessen this afternoon as weak buoyancy is removed with the frontal passage. Across the Northwest, mid-level cooling and steepening lapse rates aloft may support isolated lightning flashes over portions of the Pacific Coast, Cascades and northern Rockies. However, with low storm coverage and marginal thermodynamics expected, severe weather is not expected. ..Smith/Lyons.. 03/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected today. ...Synopsis... A broad upper low over the eastern US is forecast to move slowly eastward today as an associated cold front moves offshore across New England and South FL. To the west, a weak Pacific upper trough will move inland with ascent overspreading the Cascades and northern Rockies. Transient ridging over the central US will keep much of the country cool and stable with dry offshore flow. Weak thunderstorms ongoing across southern New England should gradually diminish through the day as the increasingly narrow warm sector moves toward the coast. Across South FL, weak convergence along the cold front and limited large-scale ascent should keep thunderstorm coverage low. Thunderstorm chances should lessen this afternoon as weak buoyancy is removed with the frontal passage. Across the Northwest, mid-level cooling and steepening lapse rates aloft may support isolated lightning flashes over portions of the Pacific Coast, Cascades and northern Rockies. However, with low storm coverage and marginal thermodynamics expected, severe weather is not expected. ..Smith/Lyons.. 03/10/2024 Read more