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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THE CAROLINAS INTO THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of isolated damaging gusts are possible from the Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and from the Carolinas into the Northeast tomorrow (Tuesday). ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will persist across the Southwest as mid-level troughs impinge on the OH Valleys and the West Coast tomorrow (Tuesday). Weak surface troughs will be positioned over the Northeast and MS Valley into the southern Plains by afternoon, promoting lift of a moist low-level airmass. Enough buoyancy will be in place, amid modest vertical wind shear, to promote the development of organized thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to potentially severe. ...Carolinas into southern New England... Scattered thunderstorms will develop by early afternoon, as surface temperatures warm well into the 80s F amid 70+ F dewpoints, eroding MLCINH and boosting MLCAPE to 2000-3000 J/kg. Poor mid-level lapse rates will result in the aforementioned buoyancy being constrained to tall/thin profiles, amid 15-25 kts of effective bulk shear. The stronger storms should be multicellular, capable of mainly damaging gusts. ...Mid-MS Valley into the southern Plains... Scattered to potentially widespread thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon given the abundance of low-level moisture and minimal convective inhibition. Storm development is particularly likely along leftover boundaries from preceding storms on Day 1. Surface temperatures approaching 90 F, with dewpoints exceeding 70 F, will contribute to over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE given 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates. As the mid-level trough moves away toward the OH Valley, mid-level flow will shift to northwesterly, above southerly low-level winds, contributing to 25 kts of effective bulk shear. Multiple merging multicells may form one or more southward-moving MCSs capable of producing a few strong to severe gusts. ...Central to Southern High Plains... Weak upslope flow of 60 F surface dewpoints, from the southeast, beneath northwesterly flow and 8-9 C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates, will yield 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE amid straight hodographs and 35 kts of effective bulk shear. By afternoon peak heating, isolated supercell will move off of the higher terrain, accompanied by an isolated severe wind/hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 07/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THE CAROLINAS INTO THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of isolated damaging gusts are possible from the Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and from the Carolinas into the Northeast tomorrow (Tuesday). ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will persist across the Southwest as mid-level troughs impinge on the OH Valleys and the West Coast tomorrow (Tuesday). Weak surface troughs will be positioned over the Northeast and MS Valley into the southern Plains by afternoon, promoting lift of a moist low-level airmass. Enough buoyancy will be in place, amid modest vertical wind shear, to promote the development of organized thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to potentially severe. ...Carolinas into southern New England... Scattered thunderstorms will develop by early afternoon, as surface temperatures warm well into the 80s F amid 70+ F dewpoints, eroding MLCINH and boosting MLCAPE to 2000-3000 J/kg. Poor mid-level lapse rates will result in the aforementioned buoyancy being constrained to tall/thin profiles, amid 15-25 kts of effective bulk shear. The stronger storms should be multicellular, capable of mainly damaging gusts. ...Mid-MS Valley into the southern Plains... Scattered to potentially widespread thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon given the abundance of low-level moisture and minimal convective inhibition. Storm development is particularly likely along leftover boundaries from preceding storms on Day 1. Surface temperatures approaching 90 F, with dewpoints exceeding 70 F, will contribute to over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE given 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates. As the mid-level trough moves away toward the OH Valley, mid-level flow will shift to northwesterly, above southerly low-level winds, contributing to 25 kts of effective bulk shear. Multiple merging multicells may form one or more southward-moving MCSs capable of producing a few strong to severe gusts. ...Central to Southern High Plains... Weak upslope flow of 60 F surface dewpoints, from the southeast, beneath northwesterly flow and 8-9 C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates, will yield 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE amid straight hodographs and 35 kts of effective bulk shear. By afternoon peak heating, isolated supercell will move off of the higher terrain, accompanied by an isolated severe wind/hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 07/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THE CAROLINAS INTO THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of isolated damaging gusts are possible from the Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and from the Carolinas into the Northeast tomorrow (Tuesday). ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will persist across the Southwest as mid-level troughs impinge on the OH Valleys and the West Coast tomorrow (Tuesday). Weak surface troughs will be positioned over the Northeast and MS Valley into the southern Plains by afternoon, promoting lift of a moist low-level airmass. Enough buoyancy will be in place, amid modest vertical wind shear, to promote the development of organized thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to potentially severe. ...Carolinas into southern New England... Scattered thunderstorms will develop by early afternoon, as surface temperatures warm well into the 80s F amid 70+ F dewpoints, eroding MLCINH and boosting MLCAPE to 2000-3000 J/kg. Poor mid-level lapse rates will result in the aforementioned buoyancy being constrained to tall/thin profiles, amid 15-25 kts of effective bulk shear. The stronger storms should be multicellular, capable of mainly damaging gusts. ...Mid-MS Valley into the southern Plains... Scattered to potentially widespread thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon given the abundance of low-level moisture and minimal convective inhibition. Storm development is particularly likely along leftover boundaries from preceding storms on Day 1. Surface temperatures approaching 90 F, with dewpoints exceeding 70 F, will contribute to over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE given 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates. As the mid-level trough moves away toward the OH Valley, mid-level flow will shift to northwesterly, above southerly low-level winds, contributing to 25 kts of effective bulk shear. Multiple merging multicells may form one or more southward-moving MCSs capable of producing a few strong to severe gusts. ...Central to Southern High Plains... Weak upslope flow of 60 F surface dewpoints, from the southeast, beneath northwesterly flow and 8-9 C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates, will yield 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE amid straight hodographs and 35 kts of effective bulk shear. By afternoon peak heating, isolated supercell will move off of the higher terrain, accompanied by an isolated severe wind/hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 07/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THE CAROLINAS INTO THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of isolated damaging gusts are possible from the Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and from the Carolinas into the Northeast tomorrow (Tuesday). ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will persist across the Southwest as mid-level troughs impinge on the OH Valleys and the West Coast tomorrow (Tuesday). Weak surface troughs will be positioned over the Northeast and MS Valley into the southern Plains by afternoon, promoting lift of a moist low-level airmass. Enough buoyancy will be in place, amid modest vertical wind shear, to promote the development of organized thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to potentially severe. ...Carolinas into southern New England... Scattered thunderstorms will develop by early afternoon, as surface temperatures warm well into the 80s F amid 70+ F dewpoints, eroding MLCINH and boosting MLCAPE to 2000-3000 J/kg. Poor mid-level lapse rates will result in the aforementioned buoyancy being constrained to tall/thin profiles, amid 15-25 kts of effective bulk shear. The stronger storms should be multicellular, capable of mainly damaging gusts. ...Mid-MS Valley into the southern Plains... Scattered to potentially widespread thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon given the abundance of low-level moisture and minimal convective inhibition. Storm development is particularly likely along leftover boundaries from preceding storms on Day 1. Surface temperatures approaching 90 F, with dewpoints exceeding 70 F, will contribute to over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE given 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates. As the mid-level trough moves away toward the OH Valley, mid-level flow will shift to northwesterly, above southerly low-level winds, contributing to 25 kts of effective bulk shear. Multiple merging multicells may form one or more southward-moving MCSs capable of producing a few strong to severe gusts. ...Central to Southern High Plains... Weak upslope flow of 60 F surface dewpoints, from the southeast, beneath northwesterly flow and 8-9 C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates, will yield 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE amid straight hodographs and 35 kts of effective bulk shear. By afternoon peak heating, isolated supercell will move off of the higher terrain, accompanied by an isolated severe wind/hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 07/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THE CAROLINAS INTO THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of isolated damaging gusts are possible from the Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and from the Carolinas into the Northeast tomorrow (Tuesday). ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will persist across the Southwest as mid-level troughs impinge on the OH Valleys and the West Coast tomorrow (Tuesday). Weak surface troughs will be positioned over the Northeast and MS Valley into the southern Plains by afternoon, promoting lift of a moist low-level airmass. Enough buoyancy will be in place, amid modest vertical wind shear, to promote the development of organized thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to potentially severe. ...Carolinas into southern New England... Scattered thunderstorms will develop by early afternoon, as surface temperatures warm well into the 80s F amid 70+ F dewpoints, eroding MLCINH and boosting MLCAPE to 2000-3000 J/kg. Poor mid-level lapse rates will result in the aforementioned buoyancy being constrained to tall/thin profiles, amid 15-25 kts of effective bulk shear. The stronger storms should be multicellular, capable of mainly damaging gusts. ...Mid-MS Valley into the southern Plains... Scattered to potentially widespread thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon given the abundance of low-level moisture and minimal convective inhibition. Storm development is particularly likely along leftover boundaries from preceding storms on Day 1. Surface temperatures approaching 90 F, with dewpoints exceeding 70 F, will contribute to over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE given 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates. As the mid-level trough moves away toward the OH Valley, mid-level flow will shift to northwesterly, above southerly low-level winds, contributing to 25 kts of effective bulk shear. Multiple merging multicells may form one or more southward-moving MCSs capable of producing a few strong to severe gusts. ...Central to Southern High Plains... Weak upslope flow of 60 F surface dewpoints, from the southeast, beneath northwesterly flow and 8-9 C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates, will yield 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE amid straight hodographs and 35 kts of effective bulk shear. By afternoon peak heating, isolated supercell will move off of the higher terrain, accompanied by an isolated severe wind/hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 07/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THE CAROLINAS INTO THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of isolated damaging gusts are possible from the Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and from the Carolinas into the Northeast tomorrow (Tuesday). ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will persist across the Southwest as mid-level troughs impinge on the OH Valleys and the West Coast tomorrow (Tuesday). Weak surface troughs will be positioned over the Northeast and MS Valley into the southern Plains by afternoon, promoting lift of a moist low-level airmass. Enough buoyancy will be in place, amid modest vertical wind shear, to promote the development of organized thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to potentially severe. ...Carolinas into southern New England... Scattered thunderstorms will develop by early afternoon, as surface temperatures warm well into the 80s F amid 70+ F dewpoints, eroding MLCINH and boosting MLCAPE to 2000-3000 J/kg. Poor mid-level lapse rates will result in the aforementioned buoyancy being constrained to tall/thin profiles, amid 15-25 kts of effective bulk shear. The stronger storms should be multicellular, capable of mainly damaging gusts. ...Mid-MS Valley into the southern Plains... Scattered to potentially widespread thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon given the abundance of low-level moisture and minimal convective inhibition. Storm development is particularly likely along leftover boundaries from preceding storms on Day 1. Surface temperatures approaching 90 F, with dewpoints exceeding 70 F, will contribute to over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE given 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates. As the mid-level trough moves away toward the OH Valley, mid-level flow will shift to northwesterly, above southerly low-level winds, contributing to 25 kts of effective bulk shear. Multiple merging multicells may form one or more southward-moving MCSs capable of producing a few strong to severe gusts. ...Central to Southern High Plains... Weak upslope flow of 60 F surface dewpoints, from the southeast, beneath northwesterly flow and 8-9 C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates, will yield 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE amid straight hodographs and 35 kts of effective bulk shear. By afternoon peak heating, isolated supercell will move off of the higher terrain, accompanied by an isolated severe wind/hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 07/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THE CAROLINAS INTO THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of isolated damaging gusts are possible from the Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and from the Carolinas into the Northeast tomorrow (Tuesday). ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will persist across the Southwest as mid-level troughs impinge on the OH Valleys and the West Coast tomorrow (Tuesday). Weak surface troughs will be positioned over the Northeast and MS Valley into the southern Plains by afternoon, promoting lift of a moist low-level airmass. Enough buoyancy will be in place, amid modest vertical wind shear, to promote the development of organized thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to potentially severe. ...Carolinas into southern New England... Scattered thunderstorms will develop by early afternoon, as surface temperatures warm well into the 80s F amid 70+ F dewpoints, eroding MLCINH and boosting MLCAPE to 2000-3000 J/kg. Poor mid-level lapse rates will result in the aforementioned buoyancy being constrained to tall/thin profiles, amid 15-25 kts of effective bulk shear. The stronger storms should be multicellular, capable of mainly damaging gusts. ...Mid-MS Valley into the southern Plains... Scattered to potentially widespread thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon given the abundance of low-level moisture and minimal convective inhibition. Storm development is particularly likely along leftover boundaries from preceding storms on Day 1. Surface temperatures approaching 90 F, with dewpoints exceeding 70 F, will contribute to over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE given 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates. As the mid-level trough moves away toward the OH Valley, mid-level flow will shift to northwesterly, above southerly low-level winds, contributing to 25 kts of effective bulk shear. Multiple merging multicells may form one or more southward-moving MCSs capable of producing a few strong to severe gusts. ...Central to Southern High Plains... Weak upslope flow of 60 F surface dewpoints, from the southeast, beneath northwesterly flow and 8-9 C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates, will yield 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE amid straight hodographs and 35 kts of effective bulk shear. By afternoon peak heating, isolated supercell will move off of the higher terrain, accompanied by an isolated severe wind/hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 07/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THE CAROLINAS INTO THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of isolated damaging gusts are possible from the Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and from the Carolinas into the Northeast tomorrow (Tuesday). ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will persist across the Southwest as mid-level troughs impinge on the OH Valleys and the West Coast tomorrow (Tuesday). Weak surface troughs will be positioned over the Northeast and MS Valley into the southern Plains by afternoon, promoting lift of a moist low-level airmass. Enough buoyancy will be in place, amid modest vertical wind shear, to promote the development of organized thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to potentially severe. ...Carolinas into southern New England... Scattered thunderstorms will develop by early afternoon, as surface temperatures warm well into the 80s F amid 70+ F dewpoints, eroding MLCINH and boosting MLCAPE to 2000-3000 J/kg. Poor mid-level lapse rates will result in the aforementioned buoyancy being constrained to tall/thin profiles, amid 15-25 kts of effective bulk shear. The stronger storms should be multicellular, capable of mainly damaging gusts. ...Mid-MS Valley into the southern Plains... Scattered to potentially widespread thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon given the abundance of low-level moisture and minimal convective inhibition. Storm development is particularly likely along leftover boundaries from preceding storms on Day 1. Surface temperatures approaching 90 F, with dewpoints exceeding 70 F, will contribute to over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE given 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates. As the mid-level trough moves away toward the OH Valley, mid-level flow will shift to northwesterly, above southerly low-level winds, contributing to 25 kts of effective bulk shear. Multiple merging multicells may form one or more southward-moving MCSs capable of producing a few strong to severe gusts. ...Central to Southern High Plains... Weak upslope flow of 60 F surface dewpoints, from the southeast, beneath northwesterly flow and 8-9 C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates, will yield 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE amid straight hodographs and 35 kts of effective bulk shear. By afternoon peak heating, isolated supercell will move off of the higher terrain, accompanied by an isolated severe wind/hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 07/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THE CAROLINAS INTO THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of isolated damaging gusts are possible from the Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and from the Carolinas into the Northeast tomorrow (Tuesday). ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will persist across the Southwest as mid-level troughs impinge on the OH Valleys and the West Coast tomorrow (Tuesday). Weak surface troughs will be positioned over the Northeast and MS Valley into the southern Plains by afternoon, promoting lift of a moist low-level airmass. Enough buoyancy will be in place, amid modest vertical wind shear, to promote the development of organized thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to potentially severe. ...Carolinas into southern New England... Scattered thunderstorms will develop by early afternoon, as surface temperatures warm well into the 80s F amid 70+ F dewpoints, eroding MLCINH and boosting MLCAPE to 2000-3000 J/kg. Poor mid-level lapse rates will result in the aforementioned buoyancy being constrained to tall/thin profiles, amid 15-25 kts of effective bulk shear. The stronger storms should be multicellular, capable of mainly damaging gusts. ...Mid-MS Valley into the southern Plains... Scattered to potentially widespread thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon given the abundance of low-level moisture and minimal convective inhibition. Storm development is particularly likely along leftover boundaries from preceding storms on Day 1. Surface temperatures approaching 90 F, with dewpoints exceeding 70 F, will contribute to over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE given 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates. As the mid-level trough moves away toward the OH Valley, mid-level flow will shift to northwesterly, above southerly low-level winds, contributing to 25 kts of effective bulk shear. Multiple merging multicells may form one or more southward-moving MCSs capable of producing a few strong to severe gusts. ...Central to Southern High Plains... Weak upslope flow of 60 F surface dewpoints, from the southeast, beneath northwesterly flow and 8-9 C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates, will yield 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE amid straight hodographs and 35 kts of effective bulk shear. By afternoon peak heating, isolated supercell will move off of the higher terrain, accompanied by an isolated severe wind/hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 07/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEAST COLORADO...AND FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across the central into northern Plains. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main threats. Isolated damaging winds are also possible across parts of the Lower Great Lakes, Upper Ohio River Valley, and the Northeast. ...Central High Plains into the northern Plains... A low-amplitude midlevel trough and related belt of 40-50-kt midlevel westerlies will track eastward across the northern Plains during the day. At the same time, a cold front extending southward from the northern Plains into the central High Plains will move eastward during the afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected at the intersection of the cold front and a lee surface trough over the central High Plains during the afternoon -- aided by peripheral large-scale ascent accompanying the midlevel trough. Ahead of the evolving storms, a corridor of steep midlevel lapse rates/strong surface-based buoyancy and 40-50 kt of effective shear will promote supercells and organized clusters. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible with the initial storms. Current indications are that this activity will organize into one or more organized clusters, capable of producing swaths of severe wind (some 75+ mph). Given steep deep-layer lapse rates, lingering surface boundaries, and sufficient hodograph curvature, a couple tornadoes will also be possible. Farther north, stronger forcing for ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will support scattered thunderstorm development along the front from the Dakotas into the Upper MS Valley during the afternoon. Around 40 kt of front-orthogonal deep-layer shear will favor a mix of organized clusters and supercells, capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts. With time, these storms may grow upscale into an east-southeastward-moving MCS, with an increasing severe-wind risk. ...Upper OH River Valley, Lower Great Lakes, and the Northeast... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected along/ahead of a slow-moving cold front extending from the Northeast into the Lower Great Lakes/Upper OH River Valley during the afternoon. Around 30 kt of effective shear (stronger over New England) amid a diurnally destabilizing boundary layer will allow for loosely organized multicell clusters capable of producing wind damage. ..Weinman/Guyer.. 07/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEAST COLORADO...AND FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across the central into northern Plains. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main threats. Isolated damaging winds are also possible across parts of the Lower Great Lakes, Upper Ohio River Valley, and the Northeast. ...Central High Plains into the northern Plains... A low-amplitude midlevel trough and related belt of 40-50-kt midlevel westerlies will track eastward across the northern Plains during the day. At the same time, a cold front extending southward from the northern Plains into the central High Plains will move eastward during the afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected at the intersection of the cold front and a lee surface trough over the central High Plains during the afternoon -- aided by peripheral large-scale ascent accompanying the midlevel trough. Ahead of the evolving storms, a corridor of steep midlevel lapse rates/strong surface-based buoyancy and 40-50 kt of effective shear will promote supercells and organized clusters. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible with the initial storms. Current indications are that this activity will organize into one or more organized clusters, capable of producing swaths of severe wind (some 75+ mph). Given steep deep-layer lapse rates, lingering surface boundaries, and sufficient hodograph curvature, a couple tornadoes will also be possible. Farther north, stronger forcing for ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will support scattered thunderstorm development along the front from the Dakotas into the Upper MS Valley during the afternoon. Around 40 kt of front-orthogonal deep-layer shear will favor a mix of organized clusters and supercells, capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts. With time, these storms may grow upscale into an east-southeastward-moving MCS, with an increasing severe-wind risk. ...Upper OH River Valley, Lower Great Lakes, and the Northeast... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected along/ahead of a slow-moving cold front extending from the Northeast into the Lower Great Lakes/Upper OH River Valley during the afternoon. Around 30 kt of effective shear (stronger over New England) amid a diurnally destabilizing boundary layer will allow for loosely organized multicell clusters capable of producing wind damage. ..Weinman/Guyer.. 07/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEAST COLORADO...AND FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across the central into northern Plains. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main threats. Isolated damaging winds are also possible across parts of the Lower Great Lakes, Upper Ohio River Valley, and the Northeast. ...Central High Plains into the northern Plains... A low-amplitude midlevel trough and related belt of 40-50-kt midlevel westerlies will track eastward across the northern Plains during the day. At the same time, a cold front extending southward from the northern Plains into the central High Plains will move eastward during the afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected at the intersection of the cold front and a lee surface trough over the central High Plains during the afternoon -- aided by peripheral large-scale ascent accompanying the midlevel trough. Ahead of the evolving storms, a corridor of steep midlevel lapse rates/strong surface-based buoyancy and 40-50 kt of effective shear will promote supercells and organized clusters. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible with the initial storms. Current indications are that this activity will organize into one or more organized clusters, capable of producing swaths of severe wind (some 75+ mph). Given steep deep-layer lapse rates, lingering surface boundaries, and sufficient hodograph curvature, a couple tornadoes will also be possible. Farther north, stronger forcing for ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will support scattered thunderstorm development along the front from the Dakotas into the Upper MS Valley during the afternoon. Around 40 kt of front-orthogonal deep-layer shear will favor a mix of organized clusters and supercells, capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts. With time, these storms may grow upscale into an east-southeastward-moving MCS, with an increasing severe-wind risk. ...Upper OH River Valley, Lower Great Lakes, and the Northeast... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected along/ahead of a slow-moving cold front extending from the Northeast into the Lower Great Lakes/Upper OH River Valley during the afternoon. Around 30 kt of effective shear (stronger over New England) amid a diurnally destabilizing boundary layer will allow for loosely organized multicell clusters capable of producing wind damage. ..Weinman/Guyer.. 07/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEAST COLORADO...AND FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across the central into northern Plains. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main threats. Isolated damaging winds are also possible across parts of the Lower Great Lakes, Upper Ohio River Valley, and the Northeast. ...Central High Plains into the northern Plains... A low-amplitude midlevel trough and related belt of 40-50-kt midlevel westerlies will track eastward across the northern Plains during the day. At the same time, a cold front extending southward from the northern Plains into the central High Plains will move eastward during the afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected at the intersection of the cold front and a lee surface trough over the central High Plains during the afternoon -- aided by peripheral large-scale ascent accompanying the midlevel trough. Ahead of the evolving storms, a corridor of steep midlevel lapse rates/strong surface-based buoyancy and 40-50 kt of effective shear will promote supercells and organized clusters. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible with the initial storms. Current indications are that this activity will organize into one or more organized clusters, capable of producing swaths of severe wind (some 75+ mph). Given steep deep-layer lapse rates, lingering surface boundaries, and sufficient hodograph curvature, a couple tornadoes will also be possible. Farther north, stronger forcing for ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will support scattered thunderstorm development along the front from the Dakotas into the Upper MS Valley during the afternoon. Around 40 kt of front-orthogonal deep-layer shear will favor a mix of organized clusters and supercells, capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts. With time, these storms may grow upscale into an east-southeastward-moving MCS, with an increasing severe-wind risk. ...Upper OH River Valley, Lower Great Lakes, and the Northeast... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected along/ahead of a slow-moving cold front extending from the Northeast into the Lower Great Lakes/Upper OH River Valley during the afternoon. Around 30 kt of effective shear (stronger over New England) amid a diurnally destabilizing boundary layer will allow for loosely organized multicell clusters capable of producing wind damage. ..Weinman/Guyer.. 07/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEAST COLORADO...AND FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across the central into northern Plains. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main threats. Isolated damaging winds are also possible across parts of the Lower Great Lakes, Upper Ohio River Valley, and the Northeast. ...Central High Plains into the northern Plains... A low-amplitude midlevel trough and related belt of 40-50-kt midlevel westerlies will track eastward across the northern Plains during the day. At the same time, a cold front extending southward from the northern Plains into the central High Plains will move eastward during the afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected at the intersection of the cold front and a lee surface trough over the central High Plains during the afternoon -- aided by peripheral large-scale ascent accompanying the midlevel trough. Ahead of the evolving storms, a corridor of steep midlevel lapse rates/strong surface-based buoyancy and 40-50 kt of effective shear will promote supercells and organized clusters. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible with the initial storms. Current indications are that this activity will organize into one or more organized clusters, capable of producing swaths of severe wind (some 75+ mph). Given steep deep-layer lapse rates, lingering surface boundaries, and sufficient hodograph curvature, a couple tornadoes will also be possible. Farther north, stronger forcing for ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will support scattered thunderstorm development along the front from the Dakotas into the Upper MS Valley during the afternoon. Around 40 kt of front-orthogonal deep-layer shear will favor a mix of organized clusters and supercells, capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts. With time, these storms may grow upscale into an east-southeastward-moving MCS, with an increasing severe-wind risk. ...Upper OH River Valley, Lower Great Lakes, and the Northeast... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected along/ahead of a slow-moving cold front extending from the Northeast into the Lower Great Lakes/Upper OH River Valley during the afternoon. Around 30 kt of effective shear (stronger over New England) amid a diurnally destabilizing boundary layer will allow for loosely organized multicell clusters capable of producing wind damage. ..Weinman/Guyer.. 07/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEAST COLORADO...AND FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across the central into northern Plains. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main threats. Isolated damaging winds are also possible across parts of the Lower Great Lakes, Upper Ohio River Valley, and the Northeast. ...Central High Plains into the northern Plains... A low-amplitude midlevel trough and related belt of 40-50-kt midlevel westerlies will track eastward across the northern Plains during the day. At the same time, a cold front extending southward from the northern Plains into the central High Plains will move eastward during the afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected at the intersection of the cold front and a lee surface trough over the central High Plains during the afternoon -- aided by peripheral large-scale ascent accompanying the midlevel trough. Ahead of the evolving storms, a corridor of steep midlevel lapse rates/strong surface-based buoyancy and 40-50 kt of effective shear will promote supercells and organized clusters. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible with the initial storms. Current indications are that this activity will organize into one or more organized clusters, capable of producing swaths of severe wind (some 75+ mph). Given steep deep-layer lapse rates, lingering surface boundaries, and sufficient hodograph curvature, a couple tornadoes will also be possible. Farther north, stronger forcing for ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will support scattered thunderstorm development along the front from the Dakotas into the Upper MS Valley during the afternoon. Around 40 kt of front-orthogonal deep-layer shear will favor a mix of organized clusters and supercells, capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts. With time, these storms may grow upscale into an east-southeastward-moving MCS, with an increasing severe-wind risk. ...Upper OH River Valley, Lower Great Lakes, and the Northeast... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected along/ahead of a slow-moving cold front extending from the Northeast into the Lower Great Lakes/Upper OH River Valley during the afternoon. Around 30 kt of effective shear (stronger over New England) amid a diurnally destabilizing boundary layer will allow for loosely organized multicell clusters capable of producing wind damage. ..Weinman/Guyer.. 07/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEAST COLORADO...AND FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across the central into northern Plains. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main threats. Isolated damaging winds are also possible across parts of the Lower Great Lakes, Upper Ohio River Valley, and the Northeast. ...Central High Plains into the northern Plains... A low-amplitude midlevel trough and related belt of 40-50-kt midlevel westerlies will track eastward across the northern Plains during the day. At the same time, a cold front extending southward from the northern Plains into the central High Plains will move eastward during the afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected at the intersection of the cold front and a lee surface trough over the central High Plains during the afternoon -- aided by peripheral large-scale ascent accompanying the midlevel trough. Ahead of the evolving storms, a corridor of steep midlevel lapse rates/strong surface-based buoyancy and 40-50 kt of effective shear will promote supercells and organized clusters. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible with the initial storms. Current indications are that this activity will organize into one or more organized clusters, capable of producing swaths of severe wind (some 75+ mph). Given steep deep-layer lapse rates, lingering surface boundaries, and sufficient hodograph curvature, a couple tornadoes will also be possible. Farther north, stronger forcing for ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will support scattered thunderstorm development along the front from the Dakotas into the Upper MS Valley during the afternoon. Around 40 kt of front-orthogonal deep-layer shear will favor a mix of organized clusters and supercells, capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts. With time, these storms may grow upscale into an east-southeastward-moving MCS, with an increasing severe-wind risk. ...Upper OH River Valley, Lower Great Lakes, and the Northeast... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected along/ahead of a slow-moving cold front extending from the Northeast into the Lower Great Lakes/Upper OH River Valley during the afternoon. Around 30 kt of effective shear (stronger over New England) amid a diurnally destabilizing boundary layer will allow for loosely organized multicell clusters capable of producing wind damage. ..Weinman/Guyer.. 07/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEAST COLORADO...AND FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across the central into northern Plains. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main threats. Isolated damaging winds are also possible across parts of the Lower Great Lakes, Upper Ohio River Valley, and the Northeast. ...Central High Plains into the northern Plains... A low-amplitude midlevel trough and related belt of 40-50-kt midlevel westerlies will track eastward across the northern Plains during the day. At the same time, a cold front extending southward from the northern Plains into the central High Plains will move eastward during the afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected at the intersection of the cold front and a lee surface trough over the central High Plains during the afternoon -- aided by peripheral large-scale ascent accompanying the midlevel trough. Ahead of the evolving storms, a corridor of steep midlevel lapse rates/strong surface-based buoyancy and 40-50 kt of effective shear will promote supercells and organized clusters. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible with the initial storms. Current indications are that this activity will organize into one or more organized clusters, capable of producing swaths of severe wind (some 75+ mph). Given steep deep-layer lapse rates, lingering surface boundaries, and sufficient hodograph curvature, a couple tornadoes will also be possible. Farther north, stronger forcing for ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will support scattered thunderstorm development along the front from the Dakotas into the Upper MS Valley during the afternoon. Around 40 kt of front-orthogonal deep-layer shear will favor a mix of organized clusters and supercells, capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts. With time, these storms may grow upscale into an east-southeastward-moving MCS, with an increasing severe-wind risk. ...Upper OH River Valley, Lower Great Lakes, and the Northeast... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected along/ahead of a slow-moving cold front extending from the Northeast into the Lower Great Lakes/Upper OH River Valley during the afternoon. Around 30 kt of effective shear (stronger over New England) amid a diurnally destabilizing boundary layer will allow for loosely organized multicell clusters capable of producing wind damage. ..Weinman/Guyer.. 07/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEAST COLORADO...AND FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across the central into northern Plains. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main threats. Isolated damaging winds are also possible across parts of the Lower Great Lakes, Upper Ohio River Valley, and the Northeast. ...Central High Plains into the northern Plains... A low-amplitude midlevel trough and related belt of 40-50-kt midlevel westerlies will track eastward across the northern Plains during the day. At the same time, a cold front extending southward from the northern Plains into the central High Plains will move eastward during the afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected at the intersection of the cold front and a lee surface trough over the central High Plains during the afternoon -- aided by peripheral large-scale ascent accompanying the midlevel trough. Ahead of the evolving storms, a corridor of steep midlevel lapse rates/strong surface-based buoyancy and 40-50 kt of effective shear will promote supercells and organized clusters. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible with the initial storms. Current indications are that this activity will organize into one or more organized clusters, capable of producing swaths of severe wind (some 75+ mph). Given steep deep-layer lapse rates, lingering surface boundaries, and sufficient hodograph curvature, a couple tornadoes will also be possible. Farther north, stronger forcing for ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will support scattered thunderstorm development along the front from the Dakotas into the Upper MS Valley during the afternoon. Around 40 kt of front-orthogonal deep-layer shear will favor a mix of organized clusters and supercells, capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts. With time, these storms may grow upscale into an east-southeastward-moving MCS, with an increasing severe-wind risk. ...Upper OH River Valley, Lower Great Lakes, and the Northeast... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected along/ahead of a slow-moving cold front extending from the Northeast into the Lower Great Lakes/Upper OH River Valley during the afternoon. Around 30 kt of effective shear (stronger over New England) amid a diurnally destabilizing boundary layer will allow for loosely organized multicell clusters capable of producing wind damage. ..Weinman/Guyer.. 07/07/2025 Read more

601
ABPZ20 KNHC 070504
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Jul 6 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Central East Pacific (EP96):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of
low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continue this morning.
Some additional development remains possible, and a short-lived
tropical depression could still form, but the system is quickly
running out of time as it moves westward into a more stable
environment, with drier mid-level air and progressively cooler
waters later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles offshore of
southwestern Mexico late this week. Some gradual development of this
system is possible thereafter while it moves generally
west-northwestward well off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs

Orchards in Washington's Yakima Valley have been showing the effects of three years of drought. One grower removed 30 acres of fruit trees to reduce the financial strain of watering. Apple Valley News Now (WA), July 7, 2025.