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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z Given recent and expected precipitation across much of the CONUS through the extended forecast period, fire weather concerns should remain low for most areas. Portions of the Southwest and southern Great Basin are expected to generally remain dry. At present, fuels are not receptive and winds are forecast to remain rather light. Toward mid to late next week, models are in reasonable agreement that a broad trough will be in the West. Some potential for an increase in fire weather concerns will exist in parts of central/western New Mexico where fuels may become dry enough to support fire spread. This increase will coincide with increasing winds as the trough moves eastward. Confidence in critical fire weather occurring is too low for highlights. ..Wendt.. 04/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0474 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 122... FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL OH
Mesoscale Discussion 0474 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Areas affected...portions of western and north-central OH Concerning...Tornado Watch 122... Valid 171944Z - 172115Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 122 continues. SUMMARY...All-hazards severe potential is increasing across parts of western into north-central Ohio the next 1-2 hours. DISCUSSION...Supercell thunderstorms roughly from Miami County to Wyandot County have intensified over the past hour. Radar data shows strengthening cores in 7 km CAPPI analysis while storm relative velocity data shows strengthening of mid and low-level mesocyclones. Furthermore, MRMS MESH has increased on a few thunderstorm cores with at least one TBSS noted. The 17z ILN RAOB showed favorable parameters for continued supercells storm mode with a risk of all severe hazards expected. An increased risk for tornadoes is expected with the activity over the next 1-2 hours. ..Leitman.. 04/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN... LAT...LON 41038336 41038253 40578217 40138249 39898320 39878379 39888433 40038455 40468387 41038336 Read more

MD 0475 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0475 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Areas affected...central Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 171946Z - 172115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated supercells are possible in central Texas this afternoon/evening. DISCUSSION...The day-cloud RGB band from GOES-16 shows agitated cumulus through the upper clouds along a moisture boundary moving north through central Texas. SPC mesoanalysis shows some CIN in the vicinity, but with additional heating/moistening, expect a mostly uncapped environment within the next 1 to 2 hours. Forcing in the region is weak, but convergence along this boundary (evident in moisture convergence on SPC mesoanalysis) may be sufficient to break the cap. If any storms develop, the mode will be supercellular given 55 knot of effective shear and 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Long, straight hodographs will support splitting supercells. Given the lack of greater forcing, expect the threat to remain isolated to only one or two storms with the threat waning near sunset as the boundary layer cools. ..Bentley.. 04/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 30150004 30480011 30870009 31259978 31869893 32099749 31419712 30469750 29999816 30109920 30150004 Read more

WW 0121 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 121 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE MTC TO 35 ENE FNT TO 20 SE OSC. ..LEITMAN..04/17/24 ATTN...WFO...GRR...DTX...IWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 121 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MIC063-147-151-172140- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HURON ST. CLAIR SANILAC LCZ422-LHZ421-441-442-443-172140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE ST. CLAIR RIVER OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER SAGINAW BAY PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI Read more

WW 0121 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 121 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE MTC TO 35 ENE FNT TO 20 SE OSC. ..LEITMAN..04/17/24 ATTN...WFO...GRR...DTX...IWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 121 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MIC063-147-151-172140- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HURON ST. CLAIR SANILAC LCZ422-LHZ421-441-442-443-172140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE ST. CLAIR RIVER OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER SAGINAW BAY PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI Read more

WW 0121 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 121 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE MTC TO 35 ENE FNT TO 20 SE OSC. ..LEITMAN..04/17/24 ATTN...WFO...GRR...DTX...IWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 121 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MIC063-147-151-172140- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HURON ST. CLAIR SANILAC LCZ422-LHZ421-441-442-443-172140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE ST. CLAIR RIVER OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER SAGINAW BAY PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI Read more

WW 0121 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 121 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE MTC TO 35 ENE FNT TO 20 SE OSC. ..LEITMAN..04/17/24 ATTN...WFO...GRR...DTX...IWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 121 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MIC063-147-151-172140- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HURON ST. CLAIR SANILAC LCZ422-LHZ421-441-442-443-172140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE ST. CLAIR RIVER OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER SAGINAW BAY PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI Read more

WW 0121 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 121 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE MTC TO 35 ENE FNT TO 20 SE OSC. ..LEITMAN..04/17/24 ATTN...WFO...GRR...DTX...IWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 121 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MIC063-147-151-172140- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HURON ST. CLAIR SANILAC LCZ422-LHZ421-441-442-443-172140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE ST. CLAIR RIVER OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER SAGINAW BAY PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI Read more

WW 0121 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 121 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE MTC TO 35 ENE FNT TO 20 SE OSC. ..LEITMAN..04/17/24 ATTN...WFO...GRR...DTX...IWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 121 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MIC063-147-151-172140- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HURON ST. CLAIR SANILAC LCZ422-LHZ421-441-442-443-172140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE ST. CLAIR RIVER OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER SAGINAW BAY PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI Read more

WW 121 SEVERE TSTM MI LE LH 171550Z - 172300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 121 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Southern Lower Michigan Lake Erie Lake Huron * Effective this Wednesday morning and evening from 1150 AM until 700 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms currently developing across southwestern Lower Michigan is expected to continue northeastward throughout the day while intensifying. Primary severe hazards within this developing line will be damaging gusts, with some isolated hail possible as well. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles northwest of Kalamazoo MI to 30 miles north northeast of Mount Clemens MI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24030. ...Mosier Read more

WW 0122 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 122 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N LUK TO 15 NE DAY TO 30 WSW MFD TO 45 SE DTW. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0474 ..LEITMAN..04/17/24 ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...ILN...CLE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 122 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC005-021-023-027-033-035-041-043-045-047-049-057-075-077-083- 089-093-097-101-103-117-129-139-159-165-169-172140- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLAND CHAMPAIGN CLARK CLINTON CRAWFORD CUYAHOGA DELAWARE ERIE FAIRFIELD FAYETTE FRANKLIN GREENE HOLMES HURON KNOX LICKING LORAIN MADISON MARION MEDINA MORROW PICKAWAY RICHLAND UNION WARREN WAYNE LEZ143-144-145-146-172140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0122 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 122 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N LUK TO 15 NE DAY TO 30 WSW MFD TO 45 SE DTW. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0474 ..LEITMAN..04/17/24 ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...ILN...CLE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 122 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC005-021-023-027-033-035-041-043-045-047-049-057-075-077-083- 089-093-097-101-103-117-129-139-159-165-169-172140- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLAND CHAMPAIGN CLARK CLINTON CRAWFORD CUYAHOGA DELAWARE ERIE FAIRFIELD FAYETTE FRANKLIN GREENE HOLMES HURON KNOX LICKING LORAIN MADISON MARION MEDINA MORROW PICKAWAY RICHLAND UNION WARREN WAYNE LEZ143-144-145-146-172140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes remain possible across parts of the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes this afternoon. Thunderstorms with mainly a large hail threat may still occur tonight over parts of the central Plains. ...20Z Update... Primary changes to the outlook have been to: 1) Add 5 percent wind and hail probabilities to portions of the TX Hill Country to parts of northwestern TX. 2) Remove the Marginal Risk from the Southeast. 3) Add 5 percent wind probabilities to portions of central NE. 4) Clear probabilities behind the main band of storms over the OH Valley. Though confidence is still not overly high in organized thunderstorm development across central into northern TX this afternoon, agitated cumulus over central TX has recently developed, suggesting that a sparse storm or two is possible. Given adequate buoyancy and shear over central TX, any storms that can develop and mature into supercells may be accompanied by a severe wind and hail threat, warranting the introduction of 5 percent wind/hail probabilities. Please see MCD #475 for more information. Storms have percolated in intensity across AL, but have not yet become overly robust. A strong wind gust or instance of small hail cannot be completely ruled out, but current thinking is that the severe threat will be too sparse to warrant categorical highlights. A well-mixed boundary layer is becoming established across central NE, where storms are expected to develop later today. Given the mixed boundary layer, 5 percent wind probabilities have been added to account for the possibility of a severe gust or two. Otherwise, the rest of the outlook remains on track, with severe probabilities maintained in eastern parts of the OH Valley ahead of ongoing storms. ..Squitieri.. 04/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1144 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery continues to show a negatively tilted upper trough extending from the Upper Midwest into the OH Valley. Surface low associated with this trough is currently over northeast WI. An occluded front extends southwestward from this low to a triple point in the southern Lake Michigan vicinity. From this triple point, a warm front extends east-southeastward across southern Lower MI into northeast OH and a cold front extends south-southwestward across western IN and southern IL. Strong to severe thunderstorms are anticipated along and ahead of the cold front as it moves across the OH Valley and Lower MI today and tonight. This cold front then becomes stationary as it becomes more east-west orientated over AR before transitioning to a warm front OK. ...Lower Michigan into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... As mentioned in recently issued MCDs #469 and #470, the showers and isolated thunderstorms currently ongoing along and ahead of the cold front are expected to gradually intensify as the downstream air mass diurnally destabilizes. Stronger forcing for ascent is anticipated across Lower MI, which will favor quicker upscale growth into one or more bowing segments. As such, primary severe risk over Lower MI is expected to be damaging gusts from 45 to 65 mph. Farther south, less forcing for ascent and generally modest buoyancy should favor less storm coverage than areas farther north, with a more cellular storm mode anticipated as well. This region will be displaced north of the stronger upper-level flow, but the enhanced mid-level flow in place should still be sufficient for updraft organization and the potential for a few supercells. Primary risk with these storms will be hail around 1" and damaging gusts from 45 to 65 mph, but low-level flow is expected to be strong enough to support some tornado potential as well. Continued development along and ahead of the front could lead foster a transition to a more linear mode with eastern extent this evening. Damaging gusts and line-embedded tornadoes will still be possible. ...Eastern KS into the Mid/Lower MO Valley... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the north-central CONUS tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are possible later this evening in central NE. Expectation is for these storms to be elevated, but some hail is possible. A 40-45 kt southerly low-level jet will develop this evening across parts of the southern/central Plains in response to the approaching trough. Thunderstorms should eventually initiate near the northern edge of the low-level jet late this evening from central KS into far southeast NE. Ample buoyancy, and strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer should support some threat for large hail with this mainly elevated convection. If convection can grow upscale into a small bowing cluster, then isolated damaging winds may also occur. ...Mid-Atlantic... Across the Mid-Atlantic, filtered daytime heating will contribute to a well-mixed boundary layer and steep low-level lapse rates, resulting in modest buoyancy this afternoon. A few thunderstorms may move into the region off the higher terrain, with occasionally damaging gusts possible. Given the limited instability, the overall severe wind threat will likely remain isolated. ...Texas Hill Country into Northwest TX... Isolated thunderstorms may develop late this afternoon and early evening across parts of south-central into central TX along the dryline. If any convection can be sustained, it could produce severe winds and hail, but the threat currently appears too uncertain to introduce any severe probabilities. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes remain possible across parts of the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes this afternoon. Thunderstorms with mainly a large hail threat may still occur tonight over parts of the central Plains. ...20Z Update... Primary changes to the outlook have been to: 1) Add 5 percent wind and hail probabilities to portions of the TX Hill Country to parts of northwestern TX. 2) Remove the Marginal Risk from the Southeast. 3) Add 5 percent wind probabilities to portions of central NE. 4) Clear probabilities behind the main band of storms over the OH Valley. Though confidence is still not overly high in organized thunderstorm development across central into northern TX this afternoon, agitated cumulus over central TX has recently developed, suggesting that a sparse storm or two is possible. Given adequate buoyancy and shear over central TX, any storms that can develop and mature into supercells may be accompanied by a severe wind and hail threat, warranting the introduction of 5 percent wind/hail probabilities. Please see MCD #475 for more information. Storms have percolated in intensity across AL, but have not yet become overly robust. A strong wind gust or instance of small hail cannot be completely ruled out, but current thinking is that the severe threat will be too sparse to warrant categorical highlights. A well-mixed boundary layer is becoming established across central NE, where storms are expected to develop later today. Given the mixed boundary layer, 5 percent wind probabilities have been added to account for the possibility of a severe gust or two. Otherwise, the rest of the outlook remains on track, with severe probabilities maintained in eastern parts of the OH Valley ahead of ongoing storms. ..Squitieri.. 04/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1144 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery continues to show a negatively tilted upper trough extending from the Upper Midwest into the OH Valley. Surface low associated with this trough is currently over northeast WI. An occluded front extends southwestward from this low to a triple point in the southern Lake Michigan vicinity. From this triple point, a warm front extends east-southeastward across southern Lower MI into northeast OH and a cold front extends south-southwestward across western IN and southern IL. Strong to severe thunderstorms are anticipated along and ahead of the cold front as it moves across the OH Valley and Lower MI today and tonight. This cold front then becomes stationary as it becomes more east-west orientated over AR before transitioning to a warm front OK. ...Lower Michigan into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... As mentioned in recently issued MCDs #469 and #470, the showers and isolated thunderstorms currently ongoing along and ahead of the cold front are expected to gradually intensify as the downstream air mass diurnally destabilizes. Stronger forcing for ascent is anticipated across Lower MI, which will favor quicker upscale growth into one or more bowing segments. As such, primary severe risk over Lower MI is expected to be damaging gusts from 45 to 65 mph. Farther south, less forcing for ascent and generally modest buoyancy should favor less storm coverage than areas farther north, with a more cellular storm mode anticipated as well. This region will be displaced north of the stronger upper-level flow, but the enhanced mid-level flow in place should still be sufficient for updraft organization and the potential for a few supercells. Primary risk with these storms will be hail around 1" and damaging gusts from 45 to 65 mph, but low-level flow is expected to be strong enough to support some tornado potential as well. Continued development along and ahead of the front could lead foster a transition to a more linear mode with eastern extent this evening. Damaging gusts and line-embedded tornadoes will still be possible. ...Eastern KS into the Mid/Lower MO Valley... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the north-central CONUS tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are possible later this evening in central NE. Expectation is for these storms to be elevated, but some hail is possible. A 40-45 kt southerly low-level jet will develop this evening across parts of the southern/central Plains in response to the approaching trough. Thunderstorms should eventually initiate near the northern edge of the low-level jet late this evening from central KS into far southeast NE. Ample buoyancy, and strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer should support some threat for large hail with this mainly elevated convection. If convection can grow upscale into a small bowing cluster, then isolated damaging winds may also occur. ...Mid-Atlantic... Across the Mid-Atlantic, filtered daytime heating will contribute to a well-mixed boundary layer and steep low-level lapse rates, resulting in modest buoyancy this afternoon. A few thunderstorms may move into the region off the higher terrain, with occasionally damaging gusts possible. Given the limited instability, the overall severe wind threat will likely remain isolated. ...Texas Hill Country into Northwest TX... Isolated thunderstorms may develop late this afternoon and early evening across parts of south-central into central TX along the dryline. If any convection can be sustained, it could produce severe winds and hail, but the threat currently appears too uncertain to introduce any severe probabilities. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes remain possible across parts of the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes this afternoon. Thunderstorms with mainly a large hail threat may still occur tonight over parts of the central Plains. ...20Z Update... Primary changes to the outlook have been to: 1) Add 5 percent wind and hail probabilities to portions of the TX Hill Country to parts of northwestern TX. 2) Remove the Marginal Risk from the Southeast. 3) Add 5 percent wind probabilities to portions of central NE. 4) Clear probabilities behind the main band of storms over the OH Valley. Though confidence is still not overly high in organized thunderstorm development across central into northern TX this afternoon, agitated cumulus over central TX has recently developed, suggesting that a sparse storm or two is possible. Given adequate buoyancy and shear over central TX, any storms that can develop and mature into supercells may be accompanied by a severe wind and hail threat, warranting the introduction of 5 percent wind/hail probabilities. Please see MCD #475 for more information. Storms have percolated in intensity across AL, but have not yet become overly robust. A strong wind gust or instance of small hail cannot be completely ruled out, but current thinking is that the severe threat will be too sparse to warrant categorical highlights. A well-mixed boundary layer is becoming established across central NE, where storms are expected to develop later today. Given the mixed boundary layer, 5 percent wind probabilities have been added to account for the possibility of a severe gust or two. Otherwise, the rest of the outlook remains on track, with severe probabilities maintained in eastern parts of the OH Valley ahead of ongoing storms. ..Squitieri.. 04/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1144 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery continues to show a negatively tilted upper trough extending from the Upper Midwest into the OH Valley. Surface low associated with this trough is currently over northeast WI. An occluded front extends southwestward from this low to a triple point in the southern Lake Michigan vicinity. From this triple point, a warm front extends east-southeastward across southern Lower MI into northeast OH and a cold front extends south-southwestward across western IN and southern IL. Strong to severe thunderstorms are anticipated along and ahead of the cold front as it moves across the OH Valley and Lower MI today and tonight. This cold front then becomes stationary as it becomes more east-west orientated over AR before transitioning to a warm front OK. ...Lower Michigan into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... As mentioned in recently issued MCDs #469 and #470, the showers and isolated thunderstorms currently ongoing along and ahead of the cold front are expected to gradually intensify as the downstream air mass diurnally destabilizes. Stronger forcing for ascent is anticipated across Lower MI, which will favor quicker upscale growth into one or more bowing segments. As such, primary severe risk over Lower MI is expected to be damaging gusts from 45 to 65 mph. Farther south, less forcing for ascent and generally modest buoyancy should favor less storm coverage than areas farther north, with a more cellular storm mode anticipated as well. This region will be displaced north of the stronger upper-level flow, but the enhanced mid-level flow in place should still be sufficient for updraft organization and the potential for a few supercells. Primary risk with these storms will be hail around 1" and damaging gusts from 45 to 65 mph, but low-level flow is expected to be strong enough to support some tornado potential as well. Continued development along and ahead of the front could lead foster a transition to a more linear mode with eastern extent this evening. Damaging gusts and line-embedded tornadoes will still be possible. ...Eastern KS into the Mid/Lower MO Valley... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the north-central CONUS tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are possible later this evening in central NE. Expectation is for these storms to be elevated, but some hail is possible. A 40-45 kt southerly low-level jet will develop this evening across parts of the southern/central Plains in response to the approaching trough. Thunderstorms should eventually initiate near the northern edge of the low-level jet late this evening from central KS into far southeast NE. Ample buoyancy, and strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer should support some threat for large hail with this mainly elevated convection. If convection can grow upscale into a small bowing cluster, then isolated damaging winds may also occur. ...Mid-Atlantic... Across the Mid-Atlantic, filtered daytime heating will contribute to a well-mixed boundary layer and steep low-level lapse rates, resulting in modest buoyancy this afternoon. A few thunderstorms may move into the region off the higher terrain, with occasionally damaging gusts possible. Given the limited instability, the overall severe wind threat will likely remain isolated. ...Texas Hill Country into Northwest TX... Isolated thunderstorms may develop late this afternoon and early evening across parts of south-central into central TX along the dryline. If any convection can be sustained, it could produce severe winds and hail, but the threat currently appears too uncertain to introduce any severe probabilities. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes remain possible across parts of the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes this afternoon. Thunderstorms with mainly a large hail threat may still occur tonight over parts of the central Plains. ...20Z Update... Primary changes to the outlook have been to: 1) Add 5 percent wind and hail probabilities to portions of the TX Hill Country to parts of northwestern TX. 2) Remove the Marginal Risk from the Southeast. 3) Add 5 percent wind probabilities to portions of central NE. 4) Clear probabilities behind the main band of storms over the OH Valley. Though confidence is still not overly high in organized thunderstorm development across central into northern TX this afternoon, agitated cumulus over central TX has recently developed, suggesting that a sparse storm or two is possible. Given adequate buoyancy and shear over central TX, any storms that can develop and mature into supercells may be accompanied by a severe wind and hail threat, warranting the introduction of 5 percent wind/hail probabilities. Please see MCD #475 for more information. Storms have percolated in intensity across AL, but have not yet become overly robust. A strong wind gust or instance of small hail cannot be completely ruled out, but current thinking is that the severe threat will be too sparse to warrant categorical highlights. A well-mixed boundary layer is becoming established across central NE, where storms are expected to develop later today. Given the mixed boundary layer, 5 percent wind probabilities have been added to account for the possibility of a severe gust or two. Otherwise, the rest of the outlook remains on track, with severe probabilities maintained in eastern parts of the OH Valley ahead of ongoing storms. ..Squitieri.. 04/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1144 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery continues to show a negatively tilted upper trough extending from the Upper Midwest into the OH Valley. Surface low associated with this trough is currently over northeast WI. An occluded front extends southwestward from this low to a triple point in the southern Lake Michigan vicinity. From this triple point, a warm front extends east-southeastward across southern Lower MI into northeast OH and a cold front extends south-southwestward across western IN and southern IL. Strong to severe thunderstorms are anticipated along and ahead of the cold front as it moves across the OH Valley and Lower MI today and tonight. This cold front then becomes stationary as it becomes more east-west orientated over AR before transitioning to a warm front OK. ...Lower Michigan into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... As mentioned in recently issued MCDs #469 and #470, the showers and isolated thunderstorms currently ongoing along and ahead of the cold front are expected to gradually intensify as the downstream air mass diurnally destabilizes. Stronger forcing for ascent is anticipated across Lower MI, which will favor quicker upscale growth into one or more bowing segments. As such, primary severe risk over Lower MI is expected to be damaging gusts from 45 to 65 mph. Farther south, less forcing for ascent and generally modest buoyancy should favor less storm coverage than areas farther north, with a more cellular storm mode anticipated as well. This region will be displaced north of the stronger upper-level flow, but the enhanced mid-level flow in place should still be sufficient for updraft organization and the potential for a few supercells. Primary risk with these storms will be hail around 1" and damaging gusts from 45 to 65 mph, but low-level flow is expected to be strong enough to support some tornado potential as well. Continued development along and ahead of the front could lead foster a transition to a more linear mode with eastern extent this evening. Damaging gusts and line-embedded tornadoes will still be possible. ...Eastern KS into the Mid/Lower MO Valley... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the north-central CONUS tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are possible later this evening in central NE. Expectation is for these storms to be elevated, but some hail is possible. A 40-45 kt southerly low-level jet will develop this evening across parts of the southern/central Plains in response to the approaching trough. Thunderstorms should eventually initiate near the northern edge of the low-level jet late this evening from central KS into far southeast NE. Ample buoyancy, and strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer should support some threat for large hail with this mainly elevated convection. If convection can grow upscale into a small bowing cluster, then isolated damaging winds may also occur. ...Mid-Atlantic... Across the Mid-Atlantic, filtered daytime heating will contribute to a well-mixed boundary layer and steep low-level lapse rates, resulting in modest buoyancy this afternoon. A few thunderstorms may move into the region off the higher terrain, with occasionally damaging gusts possible. Given the limited instability, the overall severe wind threat will likely remain isolated. ...Texas Hill Country into Northwest TX... Isolated thunderstorms may develop late this afternoon and early evening across parts of south-central into central TX along the dryline. If any convection can be sustained, it could produce severe winds and hail, but the threat currently appears too uncertain to introduce any severe probabilities. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes remain possible across parts of the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes this afternoon. Thunderstorms with mainly a large hail threat may still occur tonight over parts of the central Plains. ...20Z Update... Primary changes to the outlook have been to: 1) Add 5 percent wind and hail probabilities to portions of the TX Hill Country to parts of northwestern TX. 2) Remove the Marginal Risk from the Southeast. 3) Add 5 percent wind probabilities to portions of central NE. 4) Clear probabilities behind the main band of storms over the OH Valley. Though confidence is still not overly high in organized thunderstorm development across central into northern TX this afternoon, agitated cumulus over central TX has recently developed, suggesting that a sparse storm or two is possible. Given adequate buoyancy and shear over central TX, any storms that can develop and mature into supercells may be accompanied by a severe wind and hail threat, warranting the introduction of 5 percent wind/hail probabilities. Please see MCD #475 for more information. Storms have percolated in intensity across AL, but have not yet become overly robust. A strong wind gust or instance of small hail cannot be completely ruled out, but current thinking is that the severe threat will be too sparse to warrant categorical highlights. A well-mixed boundary layer is becoming established across central NE, where storms are expected to develop later today. Given the mixed boundary layer, 5 percent wind probabilities have been added to account for the possibility of a severe gust or two. Otherwise, the rest of the outlook remains on track, with severe probabilities maintained in eastern parts of the OH Valley ahead of ongoing storms. ..Squitieri.. 04/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1144 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery continues to show a negatively tilted upper trough extending from the Upper Midwest into the OH Valley. Surface low associated with this trough is currently over northeast WI. An occluded front extends southwestward from this low to a triple point in the southern Lake Michigan vicinity. From this triple point, a warm front extends east-southeastward across southern Lower MI into northeast OH and a cold front extends south-southwestward across western IN and southern IL. Strong to severe thunderstorms are anticipated along and ahead of the cold front as it moves across the OH Valley and Lower MI today and tonight. This cold front then becomes stationary as it becomes more east-west orientated over AR before transitioning to a warm front OK. ...Lower Michigan into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... As mentioned in recently issued MCDs #469 and #470, the showers and isolated thunderstorms currently ongoing along and ahead of the cold front are expected to gradually intensify as the downstream air mass diurnally destabilizes. Stronger forcing for ascent is anticipated across Lower MI, which will favor quicker upscale growth into one or more bowing segments. As such, primary severe risk over Lower MI is expected to be damaging gusts from 45 to 65 mph. Farther south, less forcing for ascent and generally modest buoyancy should favor less storm coverage than areas farther north, with a more cellular storm mode anticipated as well. This region will be displaced north of the stronger upper-level flow, but the enhanced mid-level flow in place should still be sufficient for updraft organization and the potential for a few supercells. Primary risk with these storms will be hail around 1" and damaging gusts from 45 to 65 mph, but low-level flow is expected to be strong enough to support some tornado potential as well. Continued development along and ahead of the front could lead foster a transition to a more linear mode with eastern extent this evening. Damaging gusts and line-embedded tornadoes will still be possible. ...Eastern KS into the Mid/Lower MO Valley... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the north-central CONUS tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are possible later this evening in central NE. Expectation is for these storms to be elevated, but some hail is possible. A 40-45 kt southerly low-level jet will develop this evening across parts of the southern/central Plains in response to the approaching trough. Thunderstorms should eventually initiate near the northern edge of the low-level jet late this evening from central KS into far southeast NE. Ample buoyancy, and strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer should support some threat for large hail with this mainly elevated convection. If convection can grow upscale into a small bowing cluster, then isolated damaging winds may also occur. ...Mid-Atlantic... Across the Mid-Atlantic, filtered daytime heating will contribute to a well-mixed boundary layer and steep low-level lapse rates, resulting in modest buoyancy this afternoon. A few thunderstorms may move into the region off the higher terrain, with occasionally damaging gusts possible. Given the limited instability, the overall severe wind threat will likely remain isolated. ...Texas Hill Country into Northwest TX... Isolated thunderstorms may develop late this afternoon and early evening across parts of south-central into central TX along the dryline. If any convection can be sustained, it could produce severe winds and hail, but the threat currently appears too uncertain to introduce any severe probabilities. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes remain possible across parts of the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes this afternoon. Thunderstorms with mainly a large hail threat may still occur tonight over parts of the central Plains. ...20Z Update... Primary changes to the outlook have been to: 1) Add 5 percent wind and hail probabilities to portions of the TX Hill Country to parts of northwestern TX. 2) Remove the Marginal Risk from the Southeast. 3) Add 5 percent wind probabilities to portions of central NE. 4) Clear probabilities behind the main band of storms over the OH Valley. Though confidence is still not overly high in organized thunderstorm development across central into northern TX this afternoon, agitated cumulus over central TX has recently developed, suggesting that a sparse storm or two is possible. Given adequate buoyancy and shear over central TX, any storms that can develop and mature into supercells may be accompanied by a severe wind and hail threat, warranting the introduction of 5 percent wind/hail probabilities. Please see MCD #475 for more information. Storms have percolated in intensity across AL, but have not yet become overly robust. A strong wind gust or instance of small hail cannot be completely ruled out, but current thinking is that the severe threat will be too sparse to warrant categorical highlights. A well-mixed boundary layer is becoming established across central NE, where storms are expected to develop later today. Given the mixed boundary layer, 5 percent wind probabilities have been added to account for the possibility of a severe gust or two. Otherwise, the rest of the outlook remains on track, with severe probabilities maintained in eastern parts of the OH Valley ahead of ongoing storms. ..Squitieri.. 04/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1144 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery continues to show a negatively tilted upper trough extending from the Upper Midwest into the OH Valley. Surface low associated with this trough is currently over northeast WI. An occluded front extends southwestward from this low to a triple point in the southern Lake Michigan vicinity. From this triple point, a warm front extends east-southeastward across southern Lower MI into northeast OH and a cold front extends south-southwestward across western IN and southern IL. Strong to severe thunderstorms are anticipated along and ahead of the cold front as it moves across the OH Valley and Lower MI today and tonight. This cold front then becomes stationary as it becomes more east-west orientated over AR before transitioning to a warm front OK. ...Lower Michigan into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... As mentioned in recently issued MCDs #469 and #470, the showers and isolated thunderstorms currently ongoing along and ahead of the cold front are expected to gradually intensify as the downstream air mass diurnally destabilizes. Stronger forcing for ascent is anticipated across Lower MI, which will favor quicker upscale growth into one or more bowing segments. As such, primary severe risk over Lower MI is expected to be damaging gusts from 45 to 65 mph. Farther south, less forcing for ascent and generally modest buoyancy should favor less storm coverage than areas farther north, with a more cellular storm mode anticipated as well. This region will be displaced north of the stronger upper-level flow, but the enhanced mid-level flow in place should still be sufficient for updraft organization and the potential for a few supercells. Primary risk with these storms will be hail around 1" and damaging gusts from 45 to 65 mph, but low-level flow is expected to be strong enough to support some tornado potential as well. Continued development along and ahead of the front could lead foster a transition to a more linear mode with eastern extent this evening. Damaging gusts and line-embedded tornadoes will still be possible. ...Eastern KS into the Mid/Lower MO Valley... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the north-central CONUS tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are possible later this evening in central NE. Expectation is for these storms to be elevated, but some hail is possible. A 40-45 kt southerly low-level jet will develop this evening across parts of the southern/central Plains in response to the approaching trough. Thunderstorms should eventually initiate near the northern edge of the low-level jet late this evening from central KS into far southeast NE. Ample buoyancy, and strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer should support some threat for large hail with this mainly elevated convection. If convection can grow upscale into a small bowing cluster, then isolated damaging winds may also occur. ...Mid-Atlantic... Across the Mid-Atlantic, filtered daytime heating will contribute to a well-mixed boundary layer and steep low-level lapse rates, resulting in modest buoyancy this afternoon. A few thunderstorms may move into the region off the higher terrain, with occasionally damaging gusts possible. Given the limited instability, the overall severe wind threat will likely remain isolated. ...Texas Hill Country into Northwest TX... Isolated thunderstorms may develop late this afternoon and early evening across parts of south-central into central TX along the dryline. If any convection can be sustained, it could produce severe winds and hail, but the threat currently appears too uncertain to introduce any severe probabilities. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes remain possible across parts of the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes this afternoon. Thunderstorms with mainly a large hail threat may still occur tonight over parts of the central Plains. ...20Z Update... Primary changes to the outlook have been to: 1) Add 5 percent wind and hail probabilities to portions of the TX Hill Country to parts of northwestern TX. 2) Remove the Marginal Risk from the Southeast. 3) Add 5 percent wind probabilities to portions of central NE. 4) Clear probabilities behind the main band of storms over the OH Valley. Though confidence is still not overly high in organized thunderstorm development across central into northern TX this afternoon, agitated cumulus over central TX has recently developed, suggesting that a sparse storm or two is possible. Given adequate buoyancy and shear over central TX, any storms that can develop and mature into supercells may be accompanied by a severe wind and hail threat, warranting the introduction of 5 percent wind/hail probabilities. Please see MCD #475 for more information. Storms have percolated in intensity across AL, but have not yet become overly robust. A strong wind gust or instance of small hail cannot be completely ruled out, but current thinking is that the severe threat will be too sparse to warrant categorical highlights. A well-mixed boundary layer is becoming established across central NE, where storms are expected to develop later today. Given the mixed boundary layer, 5 percent wind probabilities have been added to account for the possibility of a severe gust or two. Otherwise, the rest of the outlook remains on track, with severe probabilities maintained in eastern parts of the OH Valley ahead of ongoing storms. ..Squitieri.. 04/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1144 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery continues to show a negatively tilted upper trough extending from the Upper Midwest into the OH Valley. Surface low associated with this trough is currently over northeast WI. An occluded front extends southwestward from this low to a triple point in the southern Lake Michigan vicinity. From this triple point, a warm front extends east-southeastward across southern Lower MI into northeast OH and a cold front extends south-southwestward across western IN and southern IL. Strong to severe thunderstorms are anticipated along and ahead of the cold front as it moves across the OH Valley and Lower MI today and tonight. This cold front then becomes stationary as it becomes more east-west orientated over AR before transitioning to a warm front OK. ...Lower Michigan into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... As mentioned in recently issued MCDs #469 and #470, the showers and isolated thunderstorms currently ongoing along and ahead of the cold front are expected to gradually intensify as the downstream air mass diurnally destabilizes. Stronger forcing for ascent is anticipated across Lower MI, which will favor quicker upscale growth into one or more bowing segments. As such, primary severe risk over Lower MI is expected to be damaging gusts from 45 to 65 mph. Farther south, less forcing for ascent and generally modest buoyancy should favor less storm coverage than areas farther north, with a more cellular storm mode anticipated as well. This region will be displaced north of the stronger upper-level flow, but the enhanced mid-level flow in place should still be sufficient for updraft organization and the potential for a few supercells. Primary risk with these storms will be hail around 1" and damaging gusts from 45 to 65 mph, but low-level flow is expected to be strong enough to support some tornado potential as well. Continued development along and ahead of the front could lead foster a transition to a more linear mode with eastern extent this evening. Damaging gusts and line-embedded tornadoes will still be possible. ...Eastern KS into the Mid/Lower MO Valley... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the north-central CONUS tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are possible later this evening in central NE. Expectation is for these storms to be elevated, but some hail is possible. A 40-45 kt southerly low-level jet will develop this evening across parts of the southern/central Plains in response to the approaching trough. Thunderstorms should eventually initiate near the northern edge of the low-level jet late this evening from central KS into far southeast NE. Ample buoyancy, and strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer should support some threat for large hail with this mainly elevated convection. If convection can grow upscale into a small bowing cluster, then isolated damaging winds may also occur. ...Mid-Atlantic... Across the Mid-Atlantic, filtered daytime heating will contribute to a well-mixed boundary layer and steep low-level lapse rates, resulting in modest buoyancy this afternoon. A few thunderstorms may move into the region off the higher terrain, with occasionally damaging gusts possible. Given the limited instability, the overall severe wind threat will likely remain isolated. ...Texas Hill Country into Northwest TX... Isolated thunderstorms may develop late this afternoon and early evening across parts of south-central into central TX along the dryline. If any convection can be sustained, it could produce severe winds and hail, but the threat currently appears too uncertain to introduce any severe probabilities. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes remain possible across parts of the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes this afternoon. Thunderstorms with mainly a large hail threat may still occur tonight over parts of the central Plains. ...20Z Update... Primary changes to the outlook have been to: 1) Add 5 percent wind and hail probabilities to portions of the TX Hill Country to parts of northwestern TX. 2) Remove the Marginal Risk from the Southeast. 3) Add 5 percent wind probabilities to portions of central NE. 4) Clear probabilities behind the main band of storms over the OH Valley. Though confidence is still not overly high in organized thunderstorm development across central into northern TX this afternoon, agitated cumulus over central TX has recently developed, suggesting that a sparse storm or two is possible. Given adequate buoyancy and shear over central TX, any storms that can develop and mature into supercells may be accompanied by a severe wind and hail threat, warranting the introduction of 5 percent wind/hail probabilities. Please see MCD #475 for more information. Storms have percolated in intensity across AL, but have not yet become overly robust. A strong wind gust or instance of small hail cannot be completely ruled out, but current thinking is that the severe threat will be too sparse to warrant categorical highlights. A well-mixed boundary layer is becoming established across central NE, where storms are expected to develop later today. Given the mixed boundary layer, 5 percent wind probabilities have been added to account for the possibility of a severe gust or two. Otherwise, the rest of the outlook remains on track, with severe probabilities maintained in eastern parts of the OH Valley ahead of ongoing storms. ..Squitieri.. 04/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1144 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery continues to show a negatively tilted upper trough extending from the Upper Midwest into the OH Valley. Surface low associated with this trough is currently over northeast WI. An occluded front extends southwestward from this low to a triple point in the southern Lake Michigan vicinity. From this triple point, a warm front extends east-southeastward across southern Lower MI into northeast OH and a cold front extends south-southwestward across western IN and southern IL. Strong to severe thunderstorms are anticipated along and ahead of the cold front as it moves across the OH Valley and Lower MI today and tonight. This cold front then becomes stationary as it becomes more east-west orientated over AR before transitioning to a warm front OK. ...Lower Michigan into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... As mentioned in recently issued MCDs #469 and #470, the showers and isolated thunderstorms currently ongoing along and ahead of the cold front are expected to gradually intensify as the downstream air mass diurnally destabilizes. Stronger forcing for ascent is anticipated across Lower MI, which will favor quicker upscale growth into one or more bowing segments. As such, primary severe risk over Lower MI is expected to be damaging gusts from 45 to 65 mph. Farther south, less forcing for ascent and generally modest buoyancy should favor less storm coverage than areas farther north, with a more cellular storm mode anticipated as well. This region will be displaced north of the stronger upper-level flow, but the enhanced mid-level flow in place should still be sufficient for updraft organization and the potential for a few supercells. Primary risk with these storms will be hail around 1" and damaging gusts from 45 to 65 mph, but low-level flow is expected to be strong enough to support some tornado potential as well. Continued development along and ahead of the front could lead foster a transition to a more linear mode with eastern extent this evening. Damaging gusts and line-embedded tornadoes will still be possible. ...Eastern KS into the Mid/Lower MO Valley... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the north-central CONUS tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are possible later this evening in central NE. Expectation is for these storms to be elevated, but some hail is possible. A 40-45 kt southerly low-level jet will develop this evening across parts of the southern/central Plains in response to the approaching trough. Thunderstorms should eventually initiate near the northern edge of the low-level jet late this evening from central KS into far southeast NE. Ample buoyancy, and strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer should support some threat for large hail with this mainly elevated convection. If convection can grow upscale into a small bowing cluster, then isolated damaging winds may also occur. ...Mid-Atlantic... Across the Mid-Atlantic, filtered daytime heating will contribute to a well-mixed boundary layer and steep low-level lapse rates, resulting in modest buoyancy this afternoon. A few thunderstorms may move into the region off the higher terrain, with occasionally damaging gusts possible. Given the limited instability, the overall severe wind threat will likely remain isolated. ...Texas Hill Country into Northwest TX... Isolated thunderstorms may develop late this afternoon and early evening across parts of south-central into central TX along the dryline. If any convection can be sustained, it could produce severe winds and hail, but the threat currently appears too uncertain to introduce any severe probabilities. Read more