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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TX TO THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today from central and east Texas across parts of the Gulf Coast states. The potential may develop for corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southeastern U.S. today, with multiple embedded impulses poised to pivot around the trough an support multiple rounds of thunderstorms this morning into later tonight. Earlier rounds of convection will reinforce a surface baroclinic boundary just north of the I-10 corridor, which may either remain stationary or drift slowly north through the day. Continued low-level warm-air and moisture advection ahead of the mid-level trough will boost at least elevated buoyancy on both sides of the baroclinic boundary, while cooler mid-level temperatures overspreads the southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley. Stronger mid-level flow accompanying the cooler temperatures aloft will result in appreciable deep-layer shear coinciding the aforementioned buoyancy, which will support multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms, spanning from parts of the southern Plains to the FL peninsula through the forecast period. ...Portions of central into eastern TX... Showers and thunderstorms should clear out of central TX through the early to mid-morning hours, allowing for 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates to overspread a moist boundary layer. Though diurnal heating may be limited by cloud cover to a degree, temperatures should rise over 80 F, supporting 2000-4000 J/kg SBCAPE (perhaps locally higher in spots) given the aforementioned dewpoints/lapse rates. A belt of stronger mid-level flow will overspread the region, supporting elongated, straight hodographs supporting splitting supercells as an initial storm mode. Large hail will be the main threat with these storms, with some of the largest stones potentially reaching 2-4 inches in diameter, especially of a more sustained supercell structure can develop. With time though, storms should grow upscale into an MCS later in the afternoon/evening as they interact more favorably with the baroclinic boundary. By this point, severe gusts become the primary threat, with a couple of QLCS tornadoes also possible. ...Portions of the southern Plains into the Ozarks... Showers and thunderstorms should linger across much of the southern Plains into the Ozarks from the morning to at least mid-afternoon. Weak surface low development is anticipated across MO/AR later in the day, which will encourage modest low-level moisture advection beneath gradually steepening mid-level lapse rates. SBCAPE should rise into the 1000-1500 J/kg range later in the afternoon. Deep-layer shear is not expected to be overly strong, though some elongation of straight hodographs suggests that multicells or brief, transient supercells may develop and produce isolated instances of severe hail or wind. ...The Gulf Coast... The potential for multiple rounds of thunderstorms introduces complications to the forecast. Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms, perhaps in the form of an MCS, may be ongoing at the start of the period across portions of the Lower MS Valley. These storms may be ongoing along or north of a baroclinic boundary, along the eastern periphery of a buoyancy axis, characterized by poor lapse rates but abundant low-level moisture. SBCAPE may be as high as 1500 J/kg as the MCS moves through. Forecast hodographs depict modest low-level curvature and mid-level elongation as the low-level jet passes over the Gulf Coast. As the MCS traverses the baroclinic boundary and ingests locally higher effective SRH, damaging gusts and tornadoes may occur. However, the passage of this first MCS may shunt the baroclinic boundary further south toward the Gulf Coast, which will impact the evolution of subsequent thunderstorm clusters. Should the boundary not be shunted offshore, the TX afternoon thunderstorms, congealing into an MCS, may traverse the boundary and pose a damaging gust/tornado threat along the Gulf Coast during the evening/overnight hours. ...Parts of the Florida Peninsula... At least one of the lead embedded mid-level impulses should traverse the northern FL Peninsula, most likely by afternoon, when surface temperatures will rising into the 80s F amid dewpoints around 70 F. Though mid-level lapse rates will be relatively poor, the strong surface heating of the moist airmass will boost SBCAPE into the 1000-2000 J/kg range amid 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear. Multicells and transient supercells are expected to initiate during the afternoon, especially along sea-breeze boundaries, with isolated instances of hail damaging gusts possible, and a tornado cannot be ruled out. ..Squitieri/Goss.. 05/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TX TO THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today from central and east Texas across parts of the Gulf Coast states. The potential may develop for corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southeastern U.S. today, with multiple embedded impulses poised to pivot around the trough an support multiple rounds of thunderstorms this morning into later tonight. Earlier rounds of convection will reinforce a surface baroclinic boundary just north of the I-10 corridor, which may either remain stationary or drift slowly north through the day. Continued low-level warm-air and moisture advection ahead of the mid-level trough will boost at least elevated buoyancy on both sides of the baroclinic boundary, while cooler mid-level temperatures overspreads the southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley. Stronger mid-level flow accompanying the cooler temperatures aloft will result in appreciable deep-layer shear coinciding the aforementioned buoyancy, which will support multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms, spanning from parts of the southern Plains to the FL peninsula through the forecast period. ...Portions of central into eastern TX... Showers and thunderstorms should clear out of central TX through the early to mid-morning hours, allowing for 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates to overspread a moist boundary layer. Though diurnal heating may be limited by cloud cover to a degree, temperatures should rise over 80 F, supporting 2000-4000 J/kg SBCAPE (perhaps locally higher in spots) given the aforementioned dewpoints/lapse rates. A belt of stronger mid-level flow will overspread the region, supporting elongated, straight hodographs supporting splitting supercells as an initial storm mode. Large hail will be the main threat with these storms, with some of the largest stones potentially reaching 2-4 inches in diameter, especially of a more sustained supercell structure can develop. With time though, storms should grow upscale into an MCS later in the afternoon/evening as they interact more favorably with the baroclinic boundary. By this point, severe gusts become the primary threat, with a couple of QLCS tornadoes also possible. ...Portions of the southern Plains into the Ozarks... Showers and thunderstorms should linger across much of the southern Plains into the Ozarks from the morning to at least mid-afternoon. Weak surface low development is anticipated across MO/AR later in the day, which will encourage modest low-level moisture advection beneath gradually steepening mid-level lapse rates. SBCAPE should rise into the 1000-1500 J/kg range later in the afternoon. Deep-layer shear is not expected to be overly strong, though some elongation of straight hodographs suggests that multicells or brief, transient supercells may develop and produce isolated instances of severe hail or wind. ...The Gulf Coast... The potential for multiple rounds of thunderstorms introduces complications to the forecast. Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms, perhaps in the form of an MCS, may be ongoing at the start of the period across portions of the Lower MS Valley. These storms may be ongoing along or north of a baroclinic boundary, along the eastern periphery of a buoyancy axis, characterized by poor lapse rates but abundant low-level moisture. SBCAPE may be as high as 1500 J/kg as the MCS moves through. Forecast hodographs depict modest low-level curvature and mid-level elongation as the low-level jet passes over the Gulf Coast. As the MCS traverses the baroclinic boundary and ingests locally higher effective SRH, damaging gusts and tornadoes may occur. However, the passage of this first MCS may shunt the baroclinic boundary further south toward the Gulf Coast, which will impact the evolution of subsequent thunderstorm clusters. Should the boundary not be shunted offshore, the TX afternoon thunderstorms, congealing into an MCS, may traverse the boundary and pose a damaging gust/tornado threat along the Gulf Coast during the evening/overnight hours. ...Parts of the Florida Peninsula... At least one of the lead embedded mid-level impulses should traverse the northern FL Peninsula, most likely by afternoon, when surface temperatures will rising into the 80s F amid dewpoints around 70 F. Though mid-level lapse rates will be relatively poor, the strong surface heating of the moist airmass will boost SBCAPE into the 1000-2000 J/kg range amid 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear. Multicells and transient supercells are expected to initiate during the afternoon, especially along sea-breeze boundaries, with isolated instances of hail damaging gusts possible, and a tornado cannot be ruled out. ..Squitieri/Goss.. 05/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TX TO THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today from central and east Texas across parts of the Gulf Coast states. The potential may develop for corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southeastern U.S. today, with multiple embedded impulses poised to pivot around the trough an support multiple rounds of thunderstorms this morning into later tonight. Earlier rounds of convection will reinforce a surface baroclinic boundary just north of the I-10 corridor, which may either remain stationary or drift slowly north through the day. Continued low-level warm-air and moisture advection ahead of the mid-level trough will boost at least elevated buoyancy on both sides of the baroclinic boundary, while cooler mid-level temperatures overspreads the southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley. Stronger mid-level flow accompanying the cooler temperatures aloft will result in appreciable deep-layer shear coinciding the aforementioned buoyancy, which will support multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms, spanning from parts of the southern Plains to the FL peninsula through the forecast period. ...Portions of central into eastern TX... Showers and thunderstorms should clear out of central TX through the early to mid-morning hours, allowing for 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates to overspread a moist boundary layer. Though diurnal heating may be limited by cloud cover to a degree, temperatures should rise over 80 F, supporting 2000-4000 J/kg SBCAPE (perhaps locally higher in spots) given the aforementioned dewpoints/lapse rates. A belt of stronger mid-level flow will overspread the region, supporting elongated, straight hodographs supporting splitting supercells as an initial storm mode. Large hail will be the main threat with these storms, with some of the largest stones potentially reaching 2-4 inches in diameter, especially of a more sustained supercell structure can develop. With time though, storms should grow upscale into an MCS later in the afternoon/evening as they interact more favorably with the baroclinic boundary. By this point, severe gusts become the primary threat, with a couple of QLCS tornadoes also possible. ...Portions of the southern Plains into the Ozarks... Showers and thunderstorms should linger across much of the southern Plains into the Ozarks from the morning to at least mid-afternoon. Weak surface low development is anticipated across MO/AR later in the day, which will encourage modest low-level moisture advection beneath gradually steepening mid-level lapse rates. SBCAPE should rise into the 1000-1500 J/kg range later in the afternoon. Deep-layer shear is not expected to be overly strong, though some elongation of straight hodographs suggests that multicells or brief, transient supercells may develop and produce isolated instances of severe hail or wind. ...The Gulf Coast... The potential for multiple rounds of thunderstorms introduces complications to the forecast. Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms, perhaps in the form of an MCS, may be ongoing at the start of the period across portions of the Lower MS Valley. These storms may be ongoing along or north of a baroclinic boundary, along the eastern periphery of a buoyancy axis, characterized by poor lapse rates but abundant low-level moisture. SBCAPE may be as high as 1500 J/kg as the MCS moves through. Forecast hodographs depict modest low-level curvature and mid-level elongation as the low-level jet passes over the Gulf Coast. As the MCS traverses the baroclinic boundary and ingests locally higher effective SRH, damaging gusts and tornadoes may occur. However, the passage of this first MCS may shunt the baroclinic boundary further south toward the Gulf Coast, which will impact the evolution of subsequent thunderstorm clusters. Should the boundary not be shunted offshore, the TX afternoon thunderstorms, congealing into an MCS, may traverse the boundary and pose a damaging gust/tornado threat along the Gulf Coast during the evening/overnight hours. ...Parts of the Florida Peninsula... At least one of the lead embedded mid-level impulses should traverse the northern FL Peninsula, most likely by afternoon, when surface temperatures will rising into the 80s F amid dewpoints around 70 F. Though mid-level lapse rates will be relatively poor, the strong surface heating of the moist airmass will boost SBCAPE into the 1000-2000 J/kg range amid 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear. Multicells and transient supercells are expected to initiate during the afternoon, especially along sea-breeze boundaries, with isolated instances of hail damaging gusts possible, and a tornado cannot be ruled out. ..Squitieri/Goss.. 05/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TX TO THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today from central and east Texas across parts of the Gulf Coast states. The potential may develop for corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southeastern U.S. today, with multiple embedded impulses poised to pivot around the trough an support multiple rounds of thunderstorms this morning into later tonight. Earlier rounds of convection will reinforce a surface baroclinic boundary just north of the I-10 corridor, which may either remain stationary or drift slowly north through the day. Continued low-level warm-air and moisture advection ahead of the mid-level trough will boost at least elevated buoyancy on both sides of the baroclinic boundary, while cooler mid-level temperatures overspreads the southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley. Stronger mid-level flow accompanying the cooler temperatures aloft will result in appreciable deep-layer shear coinciding the aforementioned buoyancy, which will support multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms, spanning from parts of the southern Plains to the FL peninsula through the forecast period. ...Portions of central into eastern TX... Showers and thunderstorms should clear out of central TX through the early to mid-morning hours, allowing for 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates to overspread a moist boundary layer. Though diurnal heating may be limited by cloud cover to a degree, temperatures should rise over 80 F, supporting 2000-4000 J/kg SBCAPE (perhaps locally higher in spots) given the aforementioned dewpoints/lapse rates. A belt of stronger mid-level flow will overspread the region, supporting elongated, straight hodographs supporting splitting supercells as an initial storm mode. Large hail will be the main threat with these storms, with some of the largest stones potentially reaching 2-4 inches in diameter, especially of a more sustained supercell structure can develop. With time though, storms should grow upscale into an MCS later in the afternoon/evening as they interact more favorably with the baroclinic boundary. By this point, severe gusts become the primary threat, with a couple of QLCS tornadoes also possible. ...Portions of the southern Plains into the Ozarks... Showers and thunderstorms should linger across much of the southern Plains into the Ozarks from the morning to at least mid-afternoon. Weak surface low development is anticipated across MO/AR later in the day, which will encourage modest low-level moisture advection beneath gradually steepening mid-level lapse rates. SBCAPE should rise into the 1000-1500 J/kg range later in the afternoon. Deep-layer shear is not expected to be overly strong, though some elongation of straight hodographs suggests that multicells or brief, transient supercells may develop and produce isolated instances of severe hail or wind. ...The Gulf Coast... The potential for multiple rounds of thunderstorms introduces complications to the forecast. Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms, perhaps in the form of an MCS, may be ongoing at the start of the period across portions of the Lower MS Valley. These storms may be ongoing along or north of a baroclinic boundary, along the eastern periphery of a buoyancy axis, characterized by poor lapse rates but abundant low-level moisture. SBCAPE may be as high as 1500 J/kg as the MCS moves through. Forecast hodographs depict modest low-level curvature and mid-level elongation as the low-level jet passes over the Gulf Coast. As the MCS traverses the baroclinic boundary and ingests locally higher effective SRH, damaging gusts and tornadoes may occur. However, the passage of this first MCS may shunt the baroclinic boundary further south toward the Gulf Coast, which will impact the evolution of subsequent thunderstorm clusters. Should the boundary not be shunted offshore, the TX afternoon thunderstorms, congealing into an MCS, may traverse the boundary and pose a damaging gust/tornado threat along the Gulf Coast during the evening/overnight hours. ...Parts of the Florida Peninsula... At least one of the lead embedded mid-level impulses should traverse the northern FL Peninsula, most likely by afternoon, when surface temperatures will rising into the 80s F amid dewpoints around 70 F. Though mid-level lapse rates will be relatively poor, the strong surface heating of the moist airmass will boost SBCAPE into the 1000-2000 J/kg range amid 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear. Multicells and transient supercells are expected to initiate during the afternoon, especially along sea-breeze boundaries, with isolated instances of hail damaging gusts possible, and a tornado cannot be ruled out. ..Squitieri/Goss.. 05/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TX TO THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today from central and east Texas across parts of the Gulf Coast states. The potential may develop for corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southeastern U.S. today, with multiple embedded impulses poised to pivot around the trough an support multiple rounds of thunderstorms this morning into later tonight. Earlier rounds of convection will reinforce a surface baroclinic boundary just north of the I-10 corridor, which may either remain stationary or drift slowly north through the day. Continued low-level warm-air and moisture advection ahead of the mid-level trough will boost at least elevated buoyancy on both sides of the baroclinic boundary, while cooler mid-level temperatures overspreads the southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley. Stronger mid-level flow accompanying the cooler temperatures aloft will result in appreciable deep-layer shear coinciding the aforementioned buoyancy, which will support multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms, spanning from parts of the southern Plains to the FL peninsula through the forecast period. ...Portions of central into eastern TX... Showers and thunderstorms should clear out of central TX through the early to mid-morning hours, allowing for 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates to overspread a moist boundary layer. Though diurnal heating may be limited by cloud cover to a degree, temperatures should rise over 80 F, supporting 2000-4000 J/kg SBCAPE (perhaps locally higher in spots) given the aforementioned dewpoints/lapse rates. A belt of stronger mid-level flow will overspread the region, supporting elongated, straight hodographs supporting splitting supercells as an initial storm mode. Large hail will be the main threat with these storms, with some of the largest stones potentially reaching 2-4 inches in diameter, especially of a more sustained supercell structure can develop. With time though, storms should grow upscale into an MCS later in the afternoon/evening as they interact more favorably with the baroclinic boundary. By this point, severe gusts become the primary threat, with a couple of QLCS tornadoes also possible. ...Portions of the southern Plains into the Ozarks... Showers and thunderstorms should linger across much of the southern Plains into the Ozarks from the morning to at least mid-afternoon. Weak surface low development is anticipated across MO/AR later in the day, which will encourage modest low-level moisture advection beneath gradually steepening mid-level lapse rates. SBCAPE should rise into the 1000-1500 J/kg range later in the afternoon. Deep-layer shear is not expected to be overly strong, though some elongation of straight hodographs suggests that multicells or brief, transient supercells may develop and produce isolated instances of severe hail or wind. ...The Gulf Coast... The potential for multiple rounds of thunderstorms introduces complications to the forecast. Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms, perhaps in the form of an MCS, may be ongoing at the start of the period across portions of the Lower MS Valley. These storms may be ongoing along or north of a baroclinic boundary, along the eastern periphery of a buoyancy axis, characterized by poor lapse rates but abundant low-level moisture. SBCAPE may be as high as 1500 J/kg as the MCS moves through. Forecast hodographs depict modest low-level curvature and mid-level elongation as the low-level jet passes over the Gulf Coast. As the MCS traverses the baroclinic boundary and ingests locally higher effective SRH, damaging gusts and tornadoes may occur. However, the passage of this first MCS may shunt the baroclinic boundary further south toward the Gulf Coast, which will impact the evolution of subsequent thunderstorm clusters. Should the boundary not be shunted offshore, the TX afternoon thunderstorms, congealing into an MCS, may traverse the boundary and pose a damaging gust/tornado threat along the Gulf Coast during the evening/overnight hours. ...Parts of the Florida Peninsula... At least one of the lead embedded mid-level impulses should traverse the northern FL Peninsula, most likely by afternoon, when surface temperatures will rising into the 80s F amid dewpoints around 70 F. Though mid-level lapse rates will be relatively poor, the strong surface heating of the moist airmass will boost SBCAPE into the 1000-2000 J/kg range amid 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear. Multicells and transient supercells are expected to initiate during the afternoon, especially along sea-breeze boundaries, with isolated instances of hail damaging gusts possible, and a tornado cannot be ruled out. ..Squitieri/Goss.. 05/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TX TO THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today from central and east Texas across parts of the Gulf Coast states. The potential may develop for corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southeastern U.S. today, with multiple embedded impulses poised to pivot around the trough an support multiple rounds of thunderstorms this morning into later tonight. Earlier rounds of convection will reinforce a surface baroclinic boundary just north of the I-10 corridor, which may either remain stationary or drift slowly north through the day. Continued low-level warm-air and moisture advection ahead of the mid-level trough will boost at least elevated buoyancy on both sides of the baroclinic boundary, while cooler mid-level temperatures overspreads the southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley. Stronger mid-level flow accompanying the cooler temperatures aloft will result in appreciable deep-layer shear coinciding the aforementioned buoyancy, which will support multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms, spanning from parts of the southern Plains to the FL peninsula through the forecast period. ...Portions of central into eastern TX... Showers and thunderstorms should clear out of central TX through the early to mid-morning hours, allowing for 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates to overspread a moist boundary layer. Though diurnal heating may be limited by cloud cover to a degree, temperatures should rise over 80 F, supporting 2000-4000 J/kg SBCAPE (perhaps locally higher in spots) given the aforementioned dewpoints/lapse rates. A belt of stronger mid-level flow will overspread the region, supporting elongated, straight hodographs supporting splitting supercells as an initial storm mode. Large hail will be the main threat with these storms, with some of the largest stones potentially reaching 2-4 inches in diameter, especially of a more sustained supercell structure can develop. With time though, storms should grow upscale into an MCS later in the afternoon/evening as they interact more favorably with the baroclinic boundary. By this point, severe gusts become the primary threat, with a couple of QLCS tornadoes also possible. ...Portions of the southern Plains into the Ozarks... Showers and thunderstorms should linger across much of the southern Plains into the Ozarks from the morning to at least mid-afternoon. Weak surface low development is anticipated across MO/AR later in the day, which will encourage modest low-level moisture advection beneath gradually steepening mid-level lapse rates. SBCAPE should rise into the 1000-1500 J/kg range later in the afternoon. Deep-layer shear is not expected to be overly strong, though some elongation of straight hodographs suggests that multicells or brief, transient supercells may develop and produce isolated instances of severe hail or wind. ...The Gulf Coast... The potential for multiple rounds of thunderstorms introduces complications to the forecast. Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms, perhaps in the form of an MCS, may be ongoing at the start of the period across portions of the Lower MS Valley. These storms may be ongoing along or north of a baroclinic boundary, along the eastern periphery of a buoyancy axis, characterized by poor lapse rates but abundant low-level moisture. SBCAPE may be as high as 1500 J/kg as the MCS moves through. Forecast hodographs depict modest low-level curvature and mid-level elongation as the low-level jet passes over the Gulf Coast. As the MCS traverses the baroclinic boundary and ingests locally higher effective SRH, damaging gusts and tornadoes may occur. However, the passage of this first MCS may shunt the baroclinic boundary further south toward the Gulf Coast, which will impact the evolution of subsequent thunderstorm clusters. Should the boundary not be shunted offshore, the TX afternoon thunderstorms, congealing into an MCS, may traverse the boundary and pose a damaging gust/tornado threat along the Gulf Coast during the evening/overnight hours. ...Parts of the Florida Peninsula... At least one of the lead embedded mid-level impulses should traverse the northern FL Peninsula, most likely by afternoon, when surface temperatures will rising into the 80s F amid dewpoints around 70 F. Though mid-level lapse rates will be relatively poor, the strong surface heating of the moist airmass will boost SBCAPE into the 1000-2000 J/kg range amid 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear. Multicells and transient supercells are expected to initiate during the afternoon, especially along sea-breeze boundaries, with isolated instances of hail damaging gusts possible, and a tornado cannot be ruled out. ..Squitieri/Goss.. 05/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TX TO THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today from central and east Texas across parts of the Gulf Coast states. The potential may develop for corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southeastern U.S. today, with multiple embedded impulses poised to pivot around the trough an support multiple rounds of thunderstorms this morning into later tonight. Earlier rounds of convection will reinforce a surface baroclinic boundary just north of the I-10 corridor, which may either remain stationary or drift slowly north through the day. Continued low-level warm-air and moisture advection ahead of the mid-level trough will boost at least elevated buoyancy on both sides of the baroclinic boundary, while cooler mid-level temperatures overspreads the southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley. Stronger mid-level flow accompanying the cooler temperatures aloft will result in appreciable deep-layer shear coinciding the aforementioned buoyancy, which will support multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms, spanning from parts of the southern Plains to the FL peninsula through the forecast period. ...Portions of central into eastern TX... Showers and thunderstorms should clear out of central TX through the early to mid-morning hours, allowing for 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates to overspread a moist boundary layer. Though diurnal heating may be limited by cloud cover to a degree, temperatures should rise over 80 F, supporting 2000-4000 J/kg SBCAPE (perhaps locally higher in spots) given the aforementioned dewpoints/lapse rates. A belt of stronger mid-level flow will overspread the region, supporting elongated, straight hodographs supporting splitting supercells as an initial storm mode. Large hail will be the main threat with these storms, with some of the largest stones potentially reaching 2-4 inches in diameter, especially of a more sustained supercell structure can develop. With time though, storms should grow upscale into an MCS later in the afternoon/evening as they interact more favorably with the baroclinic boundary. By this point, severe gusts become the primary threat, with a couple of QLCS tornadoes also possible. ...Portions of the southern Plains into the Ozarks... Showers and thunderstorms should linger across much of the southern Plains into the Ozarks from the morning to at least mid-afternoon. Weak surface low development is anticipated across MO/AR later in the day, which will encourage modest low-level moisture advection beneath gradually steepening mid-level lapse rates. SBCAPE should rise into the 1000-1500 J/kg range later in the afternoon. Deep-layer shear is not expected to be overly strong, though some elongation of straight hodographs suggests that multicells or brief, transient supercells may develop and produce isolated instances of severe hail or wind. ...The Gulf Coast... The potential for multiple rounds of thunderstorms introduces complications to the forecast. Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms, perhaps in the form of an MCS, may be ongoing at the start of the period across portions of the Lower MS Valley. These storms may be ongoing along or north of a baroclinic boundary, along the eastern periphery of a buoyancy axis, characterized by poor lapse rates but abundant low-level moisture. SBCAPE may be as high as 1500 J/kg as the MCS moves through. Forecast hodographs depict modest low-level curvature and mid-level elongation as the low-level jet passes over the Gulf Coast. As the MCS traverses the baroclinic boundary and ingests locally higher effective SRH, damaging gusts and tornadoes may occur. However, the passage of this first MCS may shunt the baroclinic boundary further south toward the Gulf Coast, which will impact the evolution of subsequent thunderstorm clusters. Should the boundary not be shunted offshore, the TX afternoon thunderstorms, congealing into an MCS, may traverse the boundary and pose a damaging gust/tornado threat along the Gulf Coast during the evening/overnight hours. ...Parts of the Florida Peninsula... At least one of the lead embedded mid-level impulses should traverse the northern FL Peninsula, most likely by afternoon, when surface temperatures will rising into the 80s F amid dewpoints around 70 F. Though mid-level lapse rates will be relatively poor, the strong surface heating of the moist airmass will boost SBCAPE into the 1000-2000 J/kg range amid 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear. Multicells and transient supercells are expected to initiate during the afternoon, especially along sea-breeze boundaries, with isolated instances of hail damaging gusts possible, and a tornado cannot be ruled out. ..Squitieri/Goss.. 05/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TX TO THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today from central and east Texas across parts of the Gulf Coast states. The potential may develop for corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southeastern U.S. today, with multiple embedded impulses poised to pivot around the trough an support multiple rounds of thunderstorms this morning into later tonight. Earlier rounds of convection will reinforce a surface baroclinic boundary just north of the I-10 corridor, which may either remain stationary or drift slowly north through the day. Continued low-level warm-air and moisture advection ahead of the mid-level trough will boost at least elevated buoyancy on both sides of the baroclinic boundary, while cooler mid-level temperatures overspreads the southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley. Stronger mid-level flow accompanying the cooler temperatures aloft will result in appreciable deep-layer shear coinciding the aforementioned buoyancy, which will support multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms, spanning from parts of the southern Plains to the FL peninsula through the forecast period. ...Portions of central into eastern TX... Showers and thunderstorms should clear out of central TX through the early to mid-morning hours, allowing for 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates to overspread a moist boundary layer. Though diurnal heating may be limited by cloud cover to a degree, temperatures should rise over 80 F, supporting 2000-4000 J/kg SBCAPE (perhaps locally higher in spots) given the aforementioned dewpoints/lapse rates. A belt of stronger mid-level flow will overspread the region, supporting elongated, straight hodographs supporting splitting supercells as an initial storm mode. Large hail will be the main threat with these storms, with some of the largest stones potentially reaching 2-4 inches in diameter, especially of a more sustained supercell structure can develop. With time though, storms should grow upscale into an MCS later in the afternoon/evening as they interact more favorably with the baroclinic boundary. By this point, severe gusts become the primary threat, with a couple of QLCS tornadoes also possible. ...Portions of the southern Plains into the Ozarks... Showers and thunderstorms should linger across much of the southern Plains into the Ozarks from the morning to at least mid-afternoon. Weak surface low development is anticipated across MO/AR later in the day, which will encourage modest low-level moisture advection beneath gradually steepening mid-level lapse rates. SBCAPE should rise into the 1000-1500 J/kg range later in the afternoon. Deep-layer shear is not expected to be overly strong, though some elongation of straight hodographs suggests that multicells or brief, transient supercells may develop and produce isolated instances of severe hail or wind. ...The Gulf Coast... The potential for multiple rounds of thunderstorms introduces complications to the forecast. Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms, perhaps in the form of an MCS, may be ongoing at the start of the period across portions of the Lower MS Valley. These storms may be ongoing along or north of a baroclinic boundary, along the eastern periphery of a buoyancy axis, characterized by poor lapse rates but abundant low-level moisture. SBCAPE may be as high as 1500 J/kg as the MCS moves through. Forecast hodographs depict modest low-level curvature and mid-level elongation as the low-level jet passes over the Gulf Coast. As the MCS traverses the baroclinic boundary and ingests locally higher effective SRH, damaging gusts and tornadoes may occur. However, the passage of this first MCS may shunt the baroclinic boundary further south toward the Gulf Coast, which will impact the evolution of subsequent thunderstorm clusters. Should the boundary not be shunted offshore, the TX afternoon thunderstorms, congealing into an MCS, may traverse the boundary and pose a damaging gust/tornado threat along the Gulf Coast during the evening/overnight hours. ...Parts of the Florida Peninsula... At least one of the lead embedded mid-level impulses should traverse the northern FL Peninsula, most likely by afternoon, when surface temperatures will rising into the 80s F amid dewpoints around 70 F. Though mid-level lapse rates will be relatively poor, the strong surface heating of the moist airmass will boost SBCAPE into the 1000-2000 J/kg range amid 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear. Multicells and transient supercells are expected to initiate during the afternoon, especially along sea-breeze boundaries, with isolated instances of hail damaging gusts possible, and a tornado cannot be ruled out. ..Squitieri/Goss.. 05/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TX TO THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today from central and east Texas across parts of the Gulf Coast states. The potential may develop for corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southeastern U.S. today, with multiple embedded impulses poised to pivot around the trough an support multiple rounds of thunderstorms this morning into later tonight. Earlier rounds of convection will reinforce a surface baroclinic boundary just north of the I-10 corridor, which may either remain stationary or drift slowly north through the day. Continued low-level warm-air and moisture advection ahead of the mid-level trough will boost at least elevated buoyancy on both sides of the baroclinic boundary, while cooler mid-level temperatures overspreads the southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley. Stronger mid-level flow accompanying the cooler temperatures aloft will result in appreciable deep-layer shear coinciding the aforementioned buoyancy, which will support multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms, spanning from parts of the southern Plains to the FL peninsula through the forecast period. ...Portions of central into eastern TX... Showers and thunderstorms should clear out of central TX through the early to mid-morning hours, allowing for 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates to overspread a moist boundary layer. Though diurnal heating may be limited by cloud cover to a degree, temperatures should rise over 80 F, supporting 2000-4000 J/kg SBCAPE (perhaps locally higher in spots) given the aforementioned dewpoints/lapse rates. A belt of stronger mid-level flow will overspread the region, supporting elongated, straight hodographs supporting splitting supercells as an initial storm mode. Large hail will be the main threat with these storms, with some of the largest stones potentially reaching 2-4 inches in diameter, especially of a more sustained supercell structure can develop. With time though, storms should grow upscale into an MCS later in the afternoon/evening as they interact more favorably with the baroclinic boundary. By this point, severe gusts become the primary threat, with a couple of QLCS tornadoes also possible. ...Portions of the southern Plains into the Ozarks... Showers and thunderstorms should linger across much of the southern Plains into the Ozarks from the morning to at least mid-afternoon. Weak surface low development is anticipated across MO/AR later in the day, which will encourage modest low-level moisture advection beneath gradually steepening mid-level lapse rates. SBCAPE should rise into the 1000-1500 J/kg range later in the afternoon. Deep-layer shear is not expected to be overly strong, though some elongation of straight hodographs suggests that multicells or brief, transient supercells may develop and produce isolated instances of severe hail or wind. ...The Gulf Coast... The potential for multiple rounds of thunderstorms introduces complications to the forecast. Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms, perhaps in the form of an MCS, may be ongoing at the start of the period across portions of the Lower MS Valley. These storms may be ongoing along or north of a baroclinic boundary, along the eastern periphery of a buoyancy axis, characterized by poor lapse rates but abundant low-level moisture. SBCAPE may be as high as 1500 J/kg as the MCS moves through. Forecast hodographs depict modest low-level curvature and mid-level elongation as the low-level jet passes over the Gulf Coast. As the MCS traverses the baroclinic boundary and ingests locally higher effective SRH, damaging gusts and tornadoes may occur. However, the passage of this first MCS may shunt the baroclinic boundary further south toward the Gulf Coast, which will impact the evolution of subsequent thunderstorm clusters. Should the boundary not be shunted offshore, the TX afternoon thunderstorms, congealing into an MCS, may traverse the boundary and pose a damaging gust/tornado threat along the Gulf Coast during the evening/overnight hours. ...Parts of the Florida Peninsula... At least one of the lead embedded mid-level impulses should traverse the northern FL Peninsula, most likely by afternoon, when surface temperatures will rising into the 80s F amid dewpoints around 70 F. Though mid-level lapse rates will be relatively poor, the strong surface heating of the moist airmass will boost SBCAPE into the 1000-2000 J/kg range amid 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear. Multicells and transient supercells are expected to initiate during the afternoon, especially along sea-breeze boundaries, with isolated instances of hail damaging gusts possible, and a tornado cannot be ruled out. ..Squitieri/Goss.. 05/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0808 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN TX INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and locally damaging winds are possible from southeast Texas into Louisiana and southwest Mississippi through tonight. Isolated large hail will remain possible this evening across the Edwards Plateau of Texas. Damaging winds and hail could still occur this evening across northeast Wisconsin toward the Lower Peninsula of Michigan. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough is currently traversing the southern Plains as a second mid-level trough continues to graze the Great Lakes region through this evening. A surface cold front continues to drift southward across the northern Plains and into the central High Plains, serving as a source of convergence for scattered strong thunderstorms. Ahead of the surface front, a low-level jet will become focused over eastern TX into LA and MS, supporting increased lift and destabilization tonight due to warm-air advection. As such, isentropic lift over convective outflow left behind by earlier storms should encourage additional strong storms into tonight. ...Northern Plains... Scattered thunderstorms continue to percolate in intensity over portions of Wisconsin toward Lower Michigan. SBCAPE around 1000 J/kg may support additional strong storms capable of wind and hail (perhaps briefly reaching severe limits) for at least a few more hours. However, nocturnal cooling should result in boundary-layer stabilization, limiting the severe risk to very brief and isolated occurrences. ...Central Plains into the southern High Plains... Strong multicellular storms continue to develop along or near the stationary portion of the surface front across KS into the TX/OK Panhandles. Adequate low-level CAPE colocated with abundant vertical-oriented surface vorticity has supported stronger cells with a history of occasional severe hail and isolated landspouts. The landspout risk should gradually diminish through the evening as diurnal heating wanes and convective overturning from the many ongoing storms reduces buoyancy. Given modest lapse rates over the Plains though, at least an isolated severe wind/hail risk should persist for at least a few more hours. ...Portions of central Texas... An isolated supercell continues to progress south over Irion/Tom Green Counties in central TX, and this storm may continue for a few more hours given the presence of 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates and 60+ kts of effective bulk shear. Deep-layer ascent should remain weak through the remainder of the period, with convective coverage expected to remain isolated. However, surface temperatures around 90 F amid low 70s F dewpoints, beneath 8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, will support over 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE to linger over central and southern TX through the evening. Furthermore, strong mid-level flow overspreading this regime support elongated hodographs and 70 kts of effective bulk shear. Should an additional storm develop and become sustained, a supercell with large hail could result, warranting the continuation and expansion of severe probabilities into the evening. ...Eastern Texas toward southern Mississippi... Earlier storms have reinforced a surface baroclinic zone immediately north of the Gulf coast, which will be overspread by a developing low-level jet overnight. Warm-air advection atop this boundary will foster over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE amid 70+ kts of effective bulk shear, which may support multicells and transient supercells capable of producing severe wind and hail through tonight. ..Squitieri.. 05/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0808 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN TX INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and locally damaging winds are possible from southeast Texas into Louisiana and southwest Mississippi through tonight. Isolated large hail will remain possible this evening across the Edwards Plateau of Texas. Damaging winds and hail could still occur this evening across northeast Wisconsin toward the Lower Peninsula of Michigan. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough is currently traversing the southern Plains as a second mid-level trough continues to graze the Great Lakes region through this evening. A surface cold front continues to drift southward across the northern Plains and into the central High Plains, serving as a source of convergence for scattered strong thunderstorms. Ahead of the surface front, a low-level jet will become focused over eastern TX into LA and MS, supporting increased lift and destabilization tonight due to warm-air advection. As such, isentropic lift over convective outflow left behind by earlier storms should encourage additional strong storms into tonight. ...Northern Plains... Scattered thunderstorms continue to percolate in intensity over portions of Wisconsin toward Lower Michigan. SBCAPE around 1000 J/kg may support additional strong storms capable of wind and hail (perhaps briefly reaching severe limits) for at least a few more hours. However, nocturnal cooling should result in boundary-layer stabilization, limiting the severe risk to very brief and isolated occurrences. ...Central Plains into the southern High Plains... Strong multicellular storms continue to develop along or near the stationary portion of the surface front across KS into the TX/OK Panhandles. Adequate low-level CAPE colocated with abundant vertical-oriented surface vorticity has supported stronger cells with a history of occasional severe hail and isolated landspouts. The landspout risk should gradually diminish through the evening as diurnal heating wanes and convective overturning from the many ongoing storms reduces buoyancy. Given modest lapse rates over the Plains though, at least an isolated severe wind/hail risk should persist for at least a few more hours. ...Portions of central Texas... An isolated supercell continues to progress south over Irion/Tom Green Counties in central TX, and this storm may continue for a few more hours given the presence of 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates and 60+ kts of effective bulk shear. Deep-layer ascent should remain weak through the remainder of the period, with convective coverage expected to remain isolated. However, surface temperatures around 90 F amid low 70s F dewpoints, beneath 8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, will support over 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE to linger over central and southern TX through the evening. Furthermore, strong mid-level flow overspreading this regime support elongated hodographs and 70 kts of effective bulk shear. Should an additional storm develop and become sustained, a supercell with large hail could result, warranting the continuation and expansion of severe probabilities into the evening. ...Eastern Texas toward southern Mississippi... Earlier storms have reinforced a surface baroclinic zone immediately north of the Gulf coast, which will be overspread by a developing low-level jet overnight. Warm-air advection atop this boundary will foster over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE amid 70+ kts of effective bulk shear, which may support multicells and transient supercells capable of producing severe wind and hail through tonight. ..Squitieri.. 05/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0808 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN TX INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and locally damaging winds are possible from southeast Texas into Louisiana and southwest Mississippi through tonight. Isolated large hail will remain possible this evening across the Edwards Plateau of Texas. Damaging winds and hail could still occur this evening across northeast Wisconsin toward the Lower Peninsula of Michigan. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough is currently traversing the southern Plains as a second mid-level trough continues to graze the Great Lakes region through this evening. A surface cold front continues to drift southward across the northern Plains and into the central High Plains, serving as a source of convergence for scattered strong thunderstorms. Ahead of the surface front, a low-level jet will become focused over eastern TX into LA and MS, supporting increased lift and destabilization tonight due to warm-air advection. As such, isentropic lift over convective outflow left behind by earlier storms should encourage additional strong storms into tonight. ...Northern Plains... Scattered thunderstorms continue to percolate in intensity over portions of Wisconsin toward Lower Michigan. SBCAPE around 1000 J/kg may support additional strong storms capable of wind and hail (perhaps briefly reaching severe limits) for at least a few more hours. However, nocturnal cooling should result in boundary-layer stabilization, limiting the severe risk to very brief and isolated occurrences. ...Central Plains into the southern High Plains... Strong multicellular storms continue to develop along or near the stationary portion of the surface front across KS into the TX/OK Panhandles. Adequate low-level CAPE colocated with abundant vertical-oriented surface vorticity has supported stronger cells with a history of occasional severe hail and isolated landspouts. The landspout risk should gradually diminish through the evening as diurnal heating wanes and convective overturning from the many ongoing storms reduces buoyancy. Given modest lapse rates over the Plains though, at least an isolated severe wind/hail risk should persist for at least a few more hours. ...Portions of central Texas... An isolated supercell continues to progress south over Irion/Tom Green Counties in central TX, and this storm may continue for a few more hours given the presence of 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates and 60+ kts of effective bulk shear. Deep-layer ascent should remain weak through the remainder of the period, with convective coverage expected to remain isolated. However, surface temperatures around 90 F amid low 70s F dewpoints, beneath 8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, will support over 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE to linger over central and southern TX through the evening. Furthermore, strong mid-level flow overspreading this regime support elongated hodographs and 70 kts of effective bulk shear. Should an additional storm develop and become sustained, a supercell with large hail could result, warranting the continuation and expansion of severe probabilities into the evening. ...Eastern Texas toward southern Mississippi... Earlier storms have reinforced a surface baroclinic zone immediately north of the Gulf coast, which will be overspread by a developing low-level jet overnight. Warm-air advection atop this boundary will foster over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE amid 70+ kts of effective bulk shear, which may support multicells and transient supercells capable of producing severe wind and hail through tonight. ..Squitieri.. 05/13/2024 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun May 12 23:39:09 UTC 2024.

WW 0233 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 233 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW LFT TO 30 N BPT TO 20 WSW LFK. ..HART..05/12/24 ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 233 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC003-009-011-039-079-097-115-122340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD EVANGELINE RAPIDES ST. LANDRY VERNON TXC241-351-457-122340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JASPER NEWTON TYLER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0233 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 233 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW LFT TO 30 N BPT TO 20 WSW LFK. ..HART..05/12/24 ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 233 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC003-009-011-039-079-097-115-122340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD EVANGELINE RAPIDES ST. LANDRY VERNON TXC241-351-457-122340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JASPER NEWTON TYLER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 233 TORNADO LA TX CW 121730Z - 130000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 233 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southwest Louisiana Southeast Texas Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 1230 PM until 700 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...The threat for supercells with a couple of tornadoes will slowly increase through the afternoon as a warm front moves slowly northward across southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana. The tornado threat will be greater with storms along the warm front. Storms along and to the cool side of the front will pose a threat for large hail of 1-2 inches in diameter, as well as isolated damaging gusts of 60-70 mph. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles north and south of a line from 120 miles west of Port Arthur TX to 35 miles east northeast of Lake Charles LA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 232... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 26025. ...Thompson Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z Mid-level flow is forecast to remain partially displaced across the southern third of the CONUS with an active subtropical jet through early next week. A mid-level ridge will slowly build over the western CONUS forcing flow aloft to trend northwesterly through midweek. Widespread cooler temperatures and precipitation are expected over the central and eastern CONUS through the forecast period. This should keep fire-weather concerns limited, with a few exceptions. ...Southwest and southern High Plains... With cooler and wetter conditions likely to persist with northwest flow aloft through the first part of next week, fire-weather concerns appear limited. More sheltered parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains, over southern NM and far west TX, may see occasional dry and breezy conditions. Some ensemble guidance suggests elevated to near-critical dry and breezy conditions will be possible D4-D6 Wed-Fri, though confidence in coverage and duration are low. Forecast uncertainty in the medium range is quite high owing to difference in the magnitude of the western US ridging. Greater fire-weather potential may evolve towards the end of the extended forecast period as stronger southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to redevelop over the southern Great Basin and Desert Southwest into next weekend and week 2. ...Central/southern FL... Rapidly developing short-term drought is expected to worsen across portions of the central and southern FL Peninsula through mid week, possibly extending into next weekend. Displaced from the higher rain chances, minimum RH is likely to drop below 40% daily with temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s F. Dry northerly winds may increase mid to late week as a dry cold front approaches. However, confidence on the extent and magnitude of potential critical conditions remain too low for higher probabilities. ..Lyons.. 05/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z Mid-level flow is forecast to remain partially displaced across the southern third of the CONUS with an active subtropical jet through early next week. A mid-level ridge will slowly build over the western CONUS forcing flow aloft to trend northwesterly through midweek. Widespread cooler temperatures and precipitation are expected over the central and eastern CONUS through the forecast period. This should keep fire-weather concerns limited, with a few exceptions. ...Southwest and southern High Plains... With cooler and wetter conditions likely to persist with northwest flow aloft through the first part of next week, fire-weather concerns appear limited. More sheltered parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains, over southern NM and far west TX, may see occasional dry and breezy conditions. Some ensemble guidance suggests elevated to near-critical dry and breezy conditions will be possible D4-D6 Wed-Fri, though confidence in coverage and duration are low. Forecast uncertainty in the medium range is quite high owing to difference in the magnitude of the western US ridging. Greater fire-weather potential may evolve towards the end of the extended forecast period as stronger southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to redevelop over the southern Great Basin and Desert Southwest into next weekend and week 2. ...Central/southern FL... Rapidly developing short-term drought is expected to worsen across portions of the central and southern FL Peninsula through mid week, possibly extending into next weekend. Displaced from the higher rain chances, minimum RH is likely to drop below 40% daily with temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s F. Dry northerly winds may increase mid to late week as a dry cold front approaches. However, confidence on the extent and magnitude of potential critical conditions remain too low for higher probabilities. ..Lyons.. 05/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z Mid-level flow is forecast to remain partially displaced across the southern third of the CONUS with an active subtropical jet through early next week. A mid-level ridge will slowly build over the western CONUS forcing flow aloft to trend northwesterly through midweek. Widespread cooler temperatures and precipitation are expected over the central and eastern CONUS through the forecast period. This should keep fire-weather concerns limited, with a few exceptions. ...Southwest and southern High Plains... With cooler and wetter conditions likely to persist with northwest flow aloft through the first part of next week, fire-weather concerns appear limited. More sheltered parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains, over southern NM and far west TX, may see occasional dry and breezy conditions. Some ensemble guidance suggests elevated to near-critical dry and breezy conditions will be possible D4-D6 Wed-Fri, though confidence in coverage and duration are low. Forecast uncertainty in the medium range is quite high owing to difference in the magnitude of the western US ridging. Greater fire-weather potential may evolve towards the end of the extended forecast period as stronger southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to redevelop over the southern Great Basin and Desert Southwest into next weekend and week 2. ...Central/southern FL... Rapidly developing short-term drought is expected to worsen across portions of the central and southern FL Peninsula through mid week, possibly extending into next weekend. Displaced from the higher rain chances, minimum RH is likely to drop below 40% daily with temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s F. Dry northerly winds may increase mid to late week as a dry cold front approaches. However, confidence on the extent and magnitude of potential critical conditions remain too low for higher probabilities. ..Lyons.. 05/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z Mid-level flow is forecast to remain partially displaced across the southern third of the CONUS with an active subtropical jet through early next week. A mid-level ridge will slowly build over the western CONUS forcing flow aloft to trend northwesterly through midweek. Widespread cooler temperatures and precipitation are expected over the central and eastern CONUS through the forecast period. This should keep fire-weather concerns limited, with a few exceptions. ...Southwest and southern High Plains... With cooler and wetter conditions likely to persist with northwest flow aloft through the first part of next week, fire-weather concerns appear limited. More sheltered parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains, over southern NM and far west TX, may see occasional dry and breezy conditions. Some ensemble guidance suggests elevated to near-critical dry and breezy conditions will be possible D4-D6 Wed-Fri, though confidence in coverage and duration are low. Forecast uncertainty in the medium range is quite high owing to difference in the magnitude of the western US ridging. Greater fire-weather potential may evolve towards the end of the extended forecast period as stronger southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to redevelop over the southern Great Basin and Desert Southwest into next weekend and week 2. ...Central/southern FL... Rapidly developing short-term drought is expected to worsen across portions of the central and southern FL Peninsula through mid week, possibly extending into next weekend. Displaced from the higher rain chances, minimum RH is likely to drop below 40% daily with temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s F. Dry northerly winds may increase mid to late week as a dry cold front approaches. However, confidence on the extent and magnitude of potential critical conditions remain too low for higher probabilities. ..Lyons.. 05/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more