Aggregator

822
ABPZ20 KNHC 232302
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu May 23 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

WW 0296 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0296 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu May 23 22:39:07 UTC 2024.

WW 0295 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 295 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..05/23/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 295 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC009-039-055-057-065-075-129-141-149-232340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKHAM CUSTER GREER HARMON JACKSON KIOWA ROGER MILLS TILLMAN WASHITA TXC023-049-059-075-081-083-087-095-101-151-155-197-207-253-269- 275-307-319-327-353-399-411-413-417-433-441-447-451-483-487- 232340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAYLOR BROWN CALLAHAN CHILDRESS COKE COLEMAN COLLINGSWORTH CONCHO COTTLE FISHER FOARD HARDEMAN HASKELL JONES KING KNOX MCCULLOCH MASON MENARD NOLAN RUNNELS SAN SABA SCHLEICHER SHACKELFORD STONEWALL TAYLOR THROCKMORTON Read more

WW 0294 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 294 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..05/23/24 ATTN...WFO...BIS...FGF...LBF...FSD...ABR...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 294 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC005-009-015-017-029-031-041-049-063-069-071-075-085-089-091- 101-103-111-113-115-117-135-149-171-183-232340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR BLAINE BOYD BROWN CHASE CHERRY CUSTER DEUEL FRONTIER GARDEN GARFIELD GRANT HAYES HOLT HOOKER KEITH KEYA PAHA LINCOLN LOGAN LOUP MCPHERSON PERKINS ROCK THOMAS WHEELER NDC001-021-029-037-041-045-047-051-073-077-081-085-232340- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS DICKEY EMMONS GRANT HETTINGER LAMOURE LOGAN MCINTOSH RANSOM RICHLAND SARGENT SIOUX Read more

WW 0293 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 293 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W CHA TO 55 NNW CSV TO 15 NNW BWG. ..DEAN..05/23/24 ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL...MRX...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 293 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC001-005-009-011-013-017-021-025-045-049-051-053-057-061-065- 067-073-079-087-095-097-099-109-113-121-123-125-129-131-137-147- 151-155-165-167-169-171-173-179-181-189-193-197-199-203-207-209- 215-217-229-231-235-237-239-232340- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ANDERSON BARREN BATH BELL BOURBON BOYLE BREATHITT CASEY CLARK CLAY CLINTON CUMBERLAND EDMONSON ESTILL FAYETTE FRANKLIN GARRARD GREEN HARLAN HARRISON HART JACKSON JESSAMINE KNOX LARUE LAUREL LEE LESLIE LINCOLN MCCREARY MADISON MARION MENIFEE MERCER METCALFE MONROE MONTGOMERY NELSON NICHOLAS OWSLEY PERRY POWELL PULASKI ROCKCASTLE RUSSELL SCOTT SPENCER TAYLOR WASHINGTON WAYNE Read more

WW 0293 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 293 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE HSV TO 40 NW CSV TO 40 ESE BWG TO 25 WNW BWG. ..DEAN..05/23/24 ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL...MRX...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 293 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC001-003-005-009-011-013-017-021-025-045-049-051-053-057-061- 065-067-073-079-087-095-097-099-109-113-121-123-125-129-131-137- 147-151-155-165-167-169-171-173-179-181-189-193-197-199-203-207- 209-215-217-227-229-231-235-237-239-232240- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN ANDERSON BARREN BATH BELL BOURBON BOYLE BREATHITT CASEY CLARK CLAY CLINTON CUMBERLAND EDMONSON ESTILL FAYETTE FRANKLIN GARRARD GREEN HARLAN HARRISON HART JACKSON JESSAMINE KNOX LARUE LAUREL LEE LESLIE LINCOLN MCCREARY MADISON MARION MENIFEE MERCER METCALFE MONROE MONTGOMERY NELSON NICHOLAS OWSLEY PERRY POWELL PULASKI ROCKCASTLE RUSSELL SCOTT SPENCER TAYLOR WARREN Read more

MD 0914 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 0914 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Areas affected...Western Nebraska into central South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 231953Z - 232200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch is likely this afternoon for parts of western Nebraska into central South Dakota. Very-large hail will be possible with initial supercells before a transition to a more linear mode. Severe wind gusts will then become the dominant threat. DISCUSSION...Cumulus continue to increase along a surface trough/cold front in western Nebraska and south-central South Dakota. With the approach of the shortwave trough now in western/central Wyoming, these trends should continue. Moisture continues to increase ahead of the boundary, particularly into western Nebraska, where a corridor of upper 50s F dewpoints are noted farther southeast in surface observations. Objective mesoanalysis shows decreasing MLCIN. Initiation of storms seems probable in the next 1-3 hours. Storms will initially be supercells capable of very large hail. Upscale growth may occur relatively quickly given the linear forcing and larger T/Td spreads at the surface. Severe wind gusts will become increasing likely as this transition occurs. ..Wendt/Hart.. 05/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 40680140 40710163 41450239 41870234 43410129 44180067 44759946 44459861 43219907 41060102 40680140 Read more

WW 0295 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0295 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

Yakima residents were encouraged to conserve water due to drought conditions. The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation was also prorationing water supplies for junior water rights holders in the Yakima River Basin due to drought, with prorationing set at 54%. FOX11 (Kennewick, Wash.), May 23, 2024

MD 0911 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 293... FOR PORTIONS OF MIDDLE/EASTERN TENNESSEE INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0911 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Areas affected...Portions of Middle/Eastern Tennessee into central/eastern Kentucky Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 293... Valid 231916Z - 232115Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 293 continues. SUMMARY...Wind damage and isolated large hail remains possible this afternoon. Storm coverage should increase into more central/eastern Kentucky over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Storms continue to develop ahead of a weak MCV in the Mid-South. Destabilization continues into eastern Kentucky where temperatures have risen to near 80 F. A cluster of storms west of Bowling Green will pose a more organized threat of wind damage, particularly as buoyancy increases ahead of this activity. Isolated large hail is possible in the most intense, discrete storms. ..Wendt.. 05/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH... LAT...LON 35938574 36638671 36988702 37298700 37498695 37718621 37878560 37988452 38278370 38188343 37538249 36978318 35848507 35938574 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z ...Southwest into southern High Plains - Day 3/Saturday... Within the base of an eastward-moving large-scale trough over the West, a strong (60-70 kt) west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will overspread the Southwest and southern High Plains during peak heating. This will promote a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, with a southward-extending dryline over the southern Plains. West of the dryline, a tightening pressure gradient, coupled with deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will yield widespread 20-25+ mph sustained westerly surface winds across NM and west TX. The combination of these winds and single-digit /lower-teens RH will favor an expansive area of critical fire-weather conditions across the region on Day 3/Saturday, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. Critical meteorological conditions are also expected well into southeast CO/southwest KS, though fuels do not appear as receptive here. Additionally, pockets of extremely critical meteorological conditions are possible (especially over portions of eastern NM), though these conditions appear too localized for such highlights -- especially given the current state of fuels. Elevated to locally critical conditions may redevelop across similar areas on Day 4/Sunday, aided by a trailing belt of moderate westerly flow aloft and a weak lee cyclone over the central/southern High Plains. However, most guidance indicates a modest surface pressure gradient owing to the weak lee cyclogenesis, limiting confidence in any more than locally critical conditions at this time. Thereafter, a large-scale ridge will build over the West, generally limiting fire-weather concerns for the remainder of the extended forecast period. ..Weinman.. 05/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z ...Southwest into southern High Plains - Day 3/Saturday... Within the base of an eastward-moving large-scale trough over the West, a strong (60-70 kt) west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will overspread the Southwest and southern High Plains during peak heating. This will promote a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, with a southward-extending dryline over the southern Plains. West of the dryline, a tightening pressure gradient, coupled with deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will yield widespread 20-25+ mph sustained westerly surface winds across NM and west TX. The combination of these winds and single-digit /lower-teens RH will favor an expansive area of critical fire-weather conditions across the region on Day 3/Saturday, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. Critical meteorological conditions are also expected well into southeast CO/southwest KS, though fuels do not appear as receptive here. Additionally, pockets of extremely critical meteorological conditions are possible (especially over portions of eastern NM), though these conditions appear too localized for such highlights -- especially given the current state of fuels. Elevated to locally critical conditions may redevelop across similar areas on Day 4/Sunday, aided by a trailing belt of moderate westerly flow aloft and a weak lee cyclone over the central/southern High Plains. However, most guidance indicates a modest surface pressure gradient owing to the weak lee cyclogenesis, limiting confidence in any more than locally critical conditions at this time. Thereafter, a large-scale ridge will build over the West, generally limiting fire-weather concerns for the remainder of the extended forecast period. ..Weinman.. 05/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z ...Southwest into southern High Plains - Day 3/Saturday... Within the base of an eastward-moving large-scale trough over the West, a strong (60-70 kt) west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will overspread the Southwest and southern High Plains during peak heating. This will promote a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, with a southward-extending dryline over the southern Plains. West of the dryline, a tightening pressure gradient, coupled with deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will yield widespread 20-25+ mph sustained westerly surface winds across NM and west TX. The combination of these winds and single-digit /lower-teens RH will favor an expansive area of critical fire-weather conditions across the region on Day 3/Saturday, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. Critical meteorological conditions are also expected well into southeast CO/southwest KS, though fuels do not appear as receptive here. Additionally, pockets of extremely critical meteorological conditions are possible (especially over portions of eastern NM), though these conditions appear too localized for such highlights -- especially given the current state of fuels. Elevated to locally critical conditions may redevelop across similar areas on Day 4/Sunday, aided by a trailing belt of moderate westerly flow aloft and a weak lee cyclone over the central/southern High Plains. However, most guidance indicates a modest surface pressure gradient owing to the weak lee cyclogenesis, limiting confidence in any more than locally critical conditions at this time. Thereafter, a large-scale ridge will build over the West, generally limiting fire-weather concerns for the remainder of the extended forecast period. ..Weinman.. 05/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z ...Southwest into southern High Plains - Day 3/Saturday... Within the base of an eastward-moving large-scale trough over the West, a strong (60-70 kt) west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will overspread the Southwest and southern High Plains during peak heating. This will promote a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, with a southward-extending dryline over the southern Plains. West of the dryline, a tightening pressure gradient, coupled with deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will yield widespread 20-25+ mph sustained westerly surface winds across NM and west TX. The combination of these winds and single-digit /lower-teens RH will favor an expansive area of critical fire-weather conditions across the region on Day 3/Saturday, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. Critical meteorological conditions are also expected well into southeast CO/southwest KS, though fuels do not appear as receptive here. Additionally, pockets of extremely critical meteorological conditions are possible (especially over portions of eastern NM), though these conditions appear too localized for such highlights -- especially given the current state of fuels. Elevated to locally critical conditions may redevelop across similar areas on Day 4/Sunday, aided by a trailing belt of moderate westerly flow aloft and a weak lee cyclone over the central/southern High Plains. However, most guidance indicates a modest surface pressure gradient owing to the weak lee cyclogenesis, limiting confidence in any more than locally critical conditions at this time. Thereafter, a large-scale ridge will build over the West, generally limiting fire-weather concerns for the remainder of the extended forecast period. ..Weinman.. 05/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z ...Southwest into southern High Plains - Day 3/Saturday... Within the base of an eastward-moving large-scale trough over the West, a strong (60-70 kt) west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will overspread the Southwest and southern High Plains during peak heating. This will promote a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, with a southward-extending dryline over the southern Plains. West of the dryline, a tightening pressure gradient, coupled with deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will yield widespread 20-25+ mph sustained westerly surface winds across NM and west TX. The combination of these winds and single-digit /lower-teens RH will favor an expansive area of critical fire-weather conditions across the region on Day 3/Saturday, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. Critical meteorological conditions are also expected well into southeast CO/southwest KS, though fuels do not appear as receptive here. Additionally, pockets of extremely critical meteorological conditions are possible (especially over portions of eastern NM), though these conditions appear too localized for such highlights -- especially given the current state of fuels. Elevated to locally critical conditions may redevelop across similar areas on Day 4/Sunday, aided by a trailing belt of moderate westerly flow aloft and a weak lee cyclone over the central/southern High Plains. However, most guidance indicates a modest surface pressure gradient owing to the weak lee cyclogenesis, limiting confidence in any more than locally critical conditions at this time. Thereafter, a large-scale ridge will build over the West, generally limiting fire-weather concerns for the remainder of the extended forecast period. ..Weinman.. 05/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z ...Southwest into southern High Plains - Day 3/Saturday... Within the base of an eastward-moving large-scale trough over the West, a strong (60-70 kt) west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will overspread the Southwest and southern High Plains during peak heating. This will promote a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, with a southward-extending dryline over the southern Plains. West of the dryline, a tightening pressure gradient, coupled with deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will yield widespread 20-25+ mph sustained westerly surface winds across NM and west TX. The combination of these winds and single-digit /lower-teens RH will favor an expansive area of critical fire-weather conditions across the region on Day 3/Saturday, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. Critical meteorological conditions are also expected well into southeast CO/southwest KS, though fuels do not appear as receptive here. Additionally, pockets of extremely critical meteorological conditions are possible (especially over portions of eastern NM), though these conditions appear too localized for such highlights -- especially given the current state of fuels. Elevated to locally critical conditions may redevelop across similar areas on Day 4/Sunday, aided by a trailing belt of moderate westerly flow aloft and a weak lee cyclone over the central/southern High Plains. However, most guidance indicates a modest surface pressure gradient owing to the weak lee cyclogenesis, limiting confidence in any more than locally critical conditions at this time. Thereafter, a large-scale ridge will build over the West, generally limiting fire-weather concerns for the remainder of the extended forecast period. ..Weinman.. 05/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z ...Southwest into southern High Plains - Day 3/Saturday... Within the base of an eastward-moving large-scale trough over the West, a strong (60-70 kt) west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will overspread the Southwest and southern High Plains during peak heating. This will promote a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, with a southward-extending dryline over the southern Plains. West of the dryline, a tightening pressure gradient, coupled with deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will yield widespread 20-25+ mph sustained westerly surface winds across NM and west TX. The combination of these winds and single-digit /lower-teens RH will favor an expansive area of critical fire-weather conditions across the region on Day 3/Saturday, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. Critical meteorological conditions are also expected well into southeast CO/southwest KS, though fuels do not appear as receptive here. Additionally, pockets of extremely critical meteorological conditions are possible (especially over portions of eastern NM), though these conditions appear too localized for such highlights -- especially given the current state of fuels. Elevated to locally critical conditions may redevelop across similar areas on Day 4/Sunday, aided by a trailing belt of moderate westerly flow aloft and a weak lee cyclone over the central/southern High Plains. However, most guidance indicates a modest surface pressure gradient owing to the weak lee cyclogenesis, limiting confidence in any more than locally critical conditions at this time. Thereafter, a large-scale ridge will build over the West, generally limiting fire-weather concerns for the remainder of the extended forecast period. ..Weinman.. 05/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z ...Southwest into southern High Plains - Day 3/Saturday... Within the base of an eastward-moving large-scale trough over the West, a strong (60-70 kt) west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will overspread the Southwest and southern High Plains during peak heating. This will promote a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, with a southward-extending dryline over the southern Plains. West of the dryline, a tightening pressure gradient, coupled with deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will yield widespread 20-25+ mph sustained westerly surface winds across NM and west TX. The combination of these winds and single-digit /lower-teens RH will favor an expansive area of critical fire-weather conditions across the region on Day 3/Saturday, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. Critical meteorological conditions are also expected well into southeast CO/southwest KS, though fuels do not appear as receptive here. Additionally, pockets of extremely critical meteorological conditions are possible (especially over portions of eastern NM), though these conditions appear too localized for such highlights -- especially given the current state of fuels. Elevated to locally critical conditions may redevelop across similar areas on Day 4/Sunday, aided by a trailing belt of moderate westerly flow aloft and a weak lee cyclone over the central/southern High Plains. However, most guidance indicates a modest surface pressure gradient owing to the weak lee cyclogenesis, limiting confidence in any more than locally critical conditions at this time. Thereafter, a large-scale ridge will build over the West, generally limiting fire-weather concerns for the remainder of the extended forecast period. ..Weinman.. 05/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z ...Southwest into southern High Plains - Day 3/Saturday... Within the base of an eastward-moving large-scale trough over the West, a strong (60-70 kt) west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will overspread the Southwest and southern High Plains during peak heating. This will promote a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, with a southward-extending dryline over the southern Plains. West of the dryline, a tightening pressure gradient, coupled with deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will yield widespread 20-25+ mph sustained westerly surface winds across NM and west TX. The combination of these winds and single-digit /lower-teens RH will favor an expansive area of critical fire-weather conditions across the region on Day 3/Saturday, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. Critical meteorological conditions are also expected well into southeast CO/southwest KS, though fuels do not appear as receptive here. Additionally, pockets of extremely critical meteorological conditions are possible (especially over portions of eastern NM), though these conditions appear too localized for such highlights -- especially given the current state of fuels. Elevated to locally critical conditions may redevelop across similar areas on Day 4/Sunday, aided by a trailing belt of moderate westerly flow aloft and a weak lee cyclone over the central/southern High Plains. However, most guidance indicates a modest surface pressure gradient owing to the weak lee cyclogenesis, limiting confidence in any more than locally critical conditions at this time. Thereafter, a large-scale ridge will build over the West, generally limiting fire-weather concerns for the remainder of the extended forecast period. ..Weinman.. 05/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more