Aggregator

WW 0297 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 297 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MOORE..05/24/24 ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GLD...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 297 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC021-035-041-085-093-133-141-149-155-165-167-193-240340- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUENA VISTA CHEROKEE CLAY HARRISON IDA MONONA O'BRIEN PLYMOUTH POTTAWATTAMIE SHELBY SIOUX WOODBURY KSC039-089-137-147-183-240340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DECATUR JEWELL NORTON PHILLIPS SMITH NEC001-003-011-019-021-023-025-027-035-037-039-043-047-051-053- 055-059-061-065-073-077-079-081-083-087-093-095-099-107-109-119- 121-125-129-137-139-141-143-145-151-153-155-159-163-167-169-173- 175-177-179-181-185-240340- NE Read more

WW 0294 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 294 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE IML TO 25 N LBF TO 35 WNW BUB TO 30 NNE 9V9 TO 35 SSE BIS. ..MOORE..05/24/24 ATTN...WFO...BIS...FGF...LBF...FSD...ABR...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 294 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC009-015-041-063-071-085-089-111-113-115-149-183-240340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE BOYD CUSTER FRONTIER GARFIELD HAYES HOLT LINCOLN LOGAN LOUP ROCK WHEELER NDC073-077-081-240340- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE RANSOM RICHLAND SARGENT SDC003-005-013-015-021-023-025-035-037-043-045-049-053-059-073- 089-091-111-115-240340- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0294 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 294 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N GLD TO 35 E MHN TO 35 NNE ANW TO 45 SE MBG TO 10 E BIS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0919 ..MOORE..05/24/24 ATTN...WFO...BIS...FGF...LBF...FSD...ABR...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 294 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC009-015-017-041-063-071-085-089-103-111-113-115-149-183- 240340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE BOYD BROWN CUSTER FRONTIER GARFIELD HAYES HOLT KEYA PAHA LINCOLN LOGAN LOUP ROCK WHEELER NDC021-029-045-047-051-073-077-081-240340- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DICKEY EMMONS LAMOURE LOGAN MCINTOSH RANSOM RICHLAND SARGENT Read more

WW 0295 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 295 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W JCT TO 50 SW BWD TO 30 N BWD TO 40 SW SPS TO 20 ENE CDS TO 45 W CSM TO 60 NW CSM. ..MOORE..05/24/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 295 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC009-039-055-057-065-075-129-141-149-240240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKHAM CUSTER GREER HARMON JACKSON KIOWA ROGER MILLS TILLMAN WASHITA TXC049-307-319-411-487-240240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN MCCULLOCH MASON SAN SABA WILBARGER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0297 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0297 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0918 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 295... FOR SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0918 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Areas affected...Southwestern Oklahoma Concerning...Tornado Watch 295... Valid 240033Z - 240130Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 295 continues. SUMMARY...A dangerous, tornadic supercell is expected to continue slowly moving ESE across Jackson County, and as far south as the Red River over the next hour. DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery from KFDR indicates VROT has increased to 90-105 kt within an ongoing, confirmed tornado located just west of Olustee, OK (southwest of Altus). The extremely unstable environment downstream of this strong to violent tornado will continue to favor tornadogensis, where SSE sustained surface winds around 20 to 25 kt will enhance localized surface vorticity. ..Barnes.. 05/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN... LAT...LON 34429971 34689979 34889951 34709905 34589867 34469859 34189856 34069888 33989911 33999941 34169960 34429971 Read more

MD 0917 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 293... FOR PORTIONS OF MIDDLE/EASTERN TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0917 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0641 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Areas affected...Portions of middle/eastern Tennessee and Kentucky Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 293... Valid 232341Z - 240115Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 293 continues. SUMMARY...A locally damaging wind and marginally severe hail threat will continue for another 1 to 2 hours across portions middle and eastern TN, and KY. DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms associated with an MCV, along with an embedded bowing segment now moving into Campbell County, will continue to pose a severe damaging wind threat over the next couple of hours. After-which, the system will begin to move into a less favorable thermodynamic environment downstream. In addition to damaging winds, any of the more discrete updrafts within 30-35 kt of deep effective layer shear could become briefly organized and produce marginally severe hail up to 1.25" in diameter. However, poor mid-level lapse rates should keep this threat fairly isolated. A watch extension east of the cluster may be necessary. ..Barnes.. 05/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...OHX... LAT...LON 35268492 35918454 36408493 37018444 36988405 36978357 36568329 36098363 35648363 35518392 35148437 35268492 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NE TO WESTERN IA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Great Plains and Mid-Missouri Valley through sunrise. A swath of damaging winds with gusts from 70-90 mph is most likely across central and eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. Isolated intense thunderstorms remain possible this evening into tonight across parts of the southern Great Plains, including a few tornadoes and very large hail. ...Central to northern Great Plains... Large hail and a few tornadoes have been the primary reported hazards thus far with scattered to widespread thunderstorms from far southern ND into western NE. While the storms over the Dakotas are expected to weaken after sunset, pronounced MCS development appears probable tonight through tomorrow morning across NE into IA. The current tail-end supercell complex, just west of North Platte, should grow upscale into a bowing MCS. This will be aided by rapid strengthening of the low-level jet over KS/NE to 60-70 kts during the next few hours and a downstream plume of moderate to large buoyancy advecting quickly northward across the Mid-MO Valley. While low-level instability, especially with northern extent, should remain weak, the strong forcing for ascent and abundant MUCAPE will be favorable for a swath of severe wind gusts. Recent HRRR soundings indicate a rear-inflow jet to around 80 kts, suggesting that gusts from 70-90 mph should be anticipated as the bowing MCS matures. Have expanded level 2-3/SLGT-ENH threats farther east-northeast in IA to account for potential severe winds persisting through 12Z. ...Southern Great Plains... A few intense supercells have been sustained along the dryline from southwest OK to central TX and east along a residual outflow in east-central TX. Tornadoes, very large hail, and localized severe gusts will remain possible over the next couple hours within a large CAPE but weak forcing for ascent environment, before these storms wane into late evening. Additional low-level warm theta-e advection storms may develop over parts of the Red River Valley overnight with large hail as the primary threat. ...Southern Appalachians and Carolinas... Downstream of an MCV over KY, a plume of modest buoyancy (as sampled by the 00Z Nashville sounding) with scattered thunderstorms should persist tonight from eastern TN across parts of NC and northern NC. Locally strong gusts capable of damaging winds will remain the primary threat. ..Grams.. 05/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NE TO WESTERN IA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Great Plains and Mid-Missouri Valley through sunrise. A swath of damaging winds with gusts from 70-90 mph is most likely across central and eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. Isolated intense thunderstorms remain possible this evening into tonight across parts of the southern Great Plains, including a few tornadoes and very large hail. ...Central to northern Great Plains... Large hail and a few tornadoes have been the primary reported hazards thus far with scattered to widespread thunderstorms from far southern ND into western NE. While the storms over the Dakotas are expected to weaken after sunset, pronounced MCS development appears probable tonight through tomorrow morning across NE into IA. The current tail-end supercell complex, just west of North Platte, should grow upscale into a bowing MCS. This will be aided by rapid strengthening of the low-level jet over KS/NE to 60-70 kts during the next few hours and a downstream plume of moderate to large buoyancy advecting quickly northward across the Mid-MO Valley. While low-level instability, especially with northern extent, should remain weak, the strong forcing for ascent and abundant MUCAPE will be favorable for a swath of severe wind gusts. Recent HRRR soundings indicate a rear-inflow jet to around 80 kts, suggesting that gusts from 70-90 mph should be anticipated as the bowing MCS matures. Have expanded level 2-3/SLGT-ENH threats farther east-northeast in IA to account for potential severe winds persisting through 12Z. ...Southern Great Plains... A few intense supercells have been sustained along the dryline from southwest OK to central TX and east along a residual outflow in east-central TX. Tornadoes, very large hail, and localized severe gusts will remain possible over the next couple hours within a large CAPE but weak forcing for ascent environment, before these storms wane into late evening. Additional low-level warm theta-e advection storms may develop over parts of the Red River Valley overnight with large hail as the primary threat. ...Southern Appalachians and Carolinas... Downstream of an MCV over KY, a plume of modest buoyancy (as sampled by the 00Z Nashville sounding) with scattered thunderstorms should persist tonight from eastern TN across parts of NC and northern NC. Locally strong gusts capable of damaging winds will remain the primary threat. ..Grams.. 05/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NE TO WESTERN IA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Great Plains and Mid-Missouri Valley through sunrise. A swath of damaging winds with gusts from 70-90 mph is most likely across central and eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. Isolated intense thunderstorms remain possible this evening into tonight across parts of the southern Great Plains, including a few tornadoes and very large hail. ...Central to northern Great Plains... Large hail and a few tornadoes have been the primary reported hazards thus far with scattered to widespread thunderstorms from far southern ND into western NE. While the storms over the Dakotas are expected to weaken after sunset, pronounced MCS development appears probable tonight through tomorrow morning across NE into IA. The current tail-end supercell complex, just west of North Platte, should grow upscale into a bowing MCS. This will be aided by rapid strengthening of the low-level jet over KS/NE to 60-70 kts during the next few hours and a downstream plume of moderate to large buoyancy advecting quickly northward across the Mid-MO Valley. While low-level instability, especially with northern extent, should remain weak, the strong forcing for ascent and abundant MUCAPE will be favorable for a swath of severe wind gusts. Recent HRRR soundings indicate a rear-inflow jet to around 80 kts, suggesting that gusts from 70-90 mph should be anticipated as the bowing MCS matures. Have expanded level 2-3/SLGT-ENH threats farther east-northeast in IA to account for potential severe winds persisting through 12Z. ...Southern Great Plains... A few intense supercells have been sustained along the dryline from southwest OK to central TX and east along a residual outflow in east-central TX. Tornadoes, very large hail, and localized severe gusts will remain possible over the next couple hours within a large CAPE but weak forcing for ascent environment, before these storms wane into late evening. Additional low-level warm theta-e advection storms may develop over parts of the Red River Valley overnight with large hail as the primary threat. ...Southern Appalachians and Carolinas... Downstream of an MCV over KY, a plume of modest buoyancy (as sampled by the 00Z Nashville sounding) with scattered thunderstorms should persist tonight from eastern TN across parts of NC and northern NC. Locally strong gusts capable of damaging winds will remain the primary threat. ..Grams.. 05/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NE TO WESTERN IA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Great Plains and Mid-Missouri Valley through sunrise. A swath of damaging winds with gusts from 70-90 mph is most likely across central and eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. Isolated intense thunderstorms remain possible this evening into tonight across parts of the southern Great Plains, including a few tornadoes and very large hail. ...Central to northern Great Plains... Large hail and a few tornadoes have been the primary reported hazards thus far with scattered to widespread thunderstorms from far southern ND into western NE. While the storms over the Dakotas are expected to weaken after sunset, pronounced MCS development appears probable tonight through tomorrow morning across NE into IA. The current tail-end supercell complex, just west of North Platte, should grow upscale into a bowing MCS. This will be aided by rapid strengthening of the low-level jet over KS/NE to 60-70 kts during the next few hours and a downstream plume of moderate to large buoyancy advecting quickly northward across the Mid-MO Valley. While low-level instability, especially with northern extent, should remain weak, the strong forcing for ascent and abundant MUCAPE will be favorable for a swath of severe wind gusts. Recent HRRR soundings indicate a rear-inflow jet to around 80 kts, suggesting that gusts from 70-90 mph should be anticipated as the bowing MCS matures. Have expanded level 2-3/SLGT-ENH threats farther east-northeast in IA to account for potential severe winds persisting through 12Z. ...Southern Great Plains... A few intense supercells have been sustained along the dryline from southwest OK to central TX and east along a residual outflow in east-central TX. Tornadoes, very large hail, and localized severe gusts will remain possible over the next couple hours within a large CAPE but weak forcing for ascent environment, before these storms wane into late evening. Additional low-level warm theta-e advection storms may develop over parts of the Red River Valley overnight with large hail as the primary threat. ...Southern Appalachians and Carolinas... Downstream of an MCV over KY, a plume of modest buoyancy (as sampled by the 00Z Nashville sounding) with scattered thunderstorms should persist tonight from eastern TN across parts of NC and northern NC. Locally strong gusts capable of damaging winds will remain the primary threat. ..Grams.. 05/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NE TO WESTERN IA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Great Plains and Mid-Missouri Valley through sunrise. A swath of damaging winds with gusts from 70-90 mph is most likely across central and eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. Isolated intense thunderstorms remain possible this evening into tonight across parts of the southern Great Plains, including a few tornadoes and very large hail. ...Central to northern Great Plains... Large hail and a few tornadoes have been the primary reported hazards thus far with scattered to widespread thunderstorms from far southern ND into western NE. While the storms over the Dakotas are expected to weaken after sunset, pronounced MCS development appears probable tonight through tomorrow morning across NE into IA. The current tail-end supercell complex, just west of North Platte, should grow upscale into a bowing MCS. This will be aided by rapid strengthening of the low-level jet over KS/NE to 60-70 kts during the next few hours and a downstream plume of moderate to large buoyancy advecting quickly northward across the Mid-MO Valley. While low-level instability, especially with northern extent, should remain weak, the strong forcing for ascent and abundant MUCAPE will be favorable for a swath of severe wind gusts. Recent HRRR soundings indicate a rear-inflow jet to around 80 kts, suggesting that gusts from 70-90 mph should be anticipated as the bowing MCS matures. Have expanded level 2-3/SLGT-ENH threats farther east-northeast in IA to account for potential severe winds persisting through 12Z. ...Southern Great Plains... A few intense supercells have been sustained along the dryline from southwest OK to central TX and east along a residual outflow in east-central TX. Tornadoes, very large hail, and localized severe gusts will remain possible over the next couple hours within a large CAPE but weak forcing for ascent environment, before these storms wane into late evening. Additional low-level warm theta-e advection storms may develop over parts of the Red River Valley overnight with large hail as the primary threat. ...Southern Appalachians and Carolinas... Downstream of an MCV over KY, a plume of modest buoyancy (as sampled by the 00Z Nashville sounding) with scattered thunderstorms should persist tonight from eastern TN across parts of NC and northern NC. Locally strong gusts capable of damaging winds will remain the primary threat. ..Grams.. 05/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NE TO WESTERN IA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Great Plains and Mid-Missouri Valley through sunrise. A swath of damaging winds with gusts from 70-90 mph is most likely across central and eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. Isolated intense thunderstorms remain possible this evening into tonight across parts of the southern Great Plains, including a few tornadoes and very large hail. ...Central to northern Great Plains... Large hail and a few tornadoes have been the primary reported hazards thus far with scattered to widespread thunderstorms from far southern ND into western NE. While the storms over the Dakotas are expected to weaken after sunset, pronounced MCS development appears probable tonight through tomorrow morning across NE into IA. The current tail-end supercell complex, just west of North Platte, should grow upscale into a bowing MCS. This will be aided by rapid strengthening of the low-level jet over KS/NE to 60-70 kts during the next few hours and a downstream plume of moderate to large buoyancy advecting quickly northward across the Mid-MO Valley. While low-level instability, especially with northern extent, should remain weak, the strong forcing for ascent and abundant MUCAPE will be favorable for a swath of severe wind gusts. Recent HRRR soundings indicate a rear-inflow jet to around 80 kts, suggesting that gusts from 70-90 mph should be anticipated as the bowing MCS matures. Have expanded level 2-3/SLGT-ENH threats farther east-northeast in IA to account for potential severe winds persisting through 12Z. ...Southern Great Plains... A few intense supercells have been sustained along the dryline from southwest OK to central TX and east along a residual outflow in east-central TX. Tornadoes, very large hail, and localized severe gusts will remain possible over the next couple hours within a large CAPE but weak forcing for ascent environment, before these storms wane into late evening. Additional low-level warm theta-e advection storms may develop over parts of the Red River Valley overnight with large hail as the primary threat. ...Southern Appalachians and Carolinas... Downstream of an MCV over KY, a plume of modest buoyancy (as sampled by the 00Z Nashville sounding) with scattered thunderstorms should persist tonight from eastern TN across parts of NC and northern NC. Locally strong gusts capable of damaging winds will remain the primary threat. ..Grams.. 05/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NE TO WESTERN IA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Great Plains and Mid-Missouri Valley through sunrise. A swath of damaging winds with gusts from 70-90 mph is most likely across central and eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. Isolated intense thunderstorms remain possible this evening into tonight across parts of the southern Great Plains, including a few tornadoes and very large hail. ...Central to northern Great Plains... Large hail and a few tornadoes have been the primary reported hazards thus far with scattered to widespread thunderstorms from far southern ND into western NE. While the storms over the Dakotas are expected to weaken after sunset, pronounced MCS development appears probable tonight through tomorrow morning across NE into IA. The current tail-end supercell complex, just west of North Platte, should grow upscale into a bowing MCS. This will be aided by rapid strengthening of the low-level jet over KS/NE to 60-70 kts during the next few hours and a downstream plume of moderate to large buoyancy advecting quickly northward across the Mid-MO Valley. While low-level instability, especially with northern extent, should remain weak, the strong forcing for ascent and abundant MUCAPE will be favorable for a swath of severe wind gusts. Recent HRRR soundings indicate a rear-inflow jet to around 80 kts, suggesting that gusts from 70-90 mph should be anticipated as the bowing MCS matures. Have expanded level 2-3/SLGT-ENH threats farther east-northeast in IA to account for potential severe winds persisting through 12Z. ...Southern Great Plains... A few intense supercells have been sustained along the dryline from southwest OK to central TX and east along a residual outflow in east-central TX. Tornadoes, very large hail, and localized severe gusts will remain possible over the next couple hours within a large CAPE but weak forcing for ascent environment, before these storms wane into late evening. Additional low-level warm theta-e advection storms may develop over parts of the Red River Valley overnight with large hail as the primary threat. ...Southern Appalachians and Carolinas... Downstream of an MCV over KY, a plume of modest buoyancy (as sampled by the 00Z Nashville sounding) with scattered thunderstorms should persist tonight from eastern TN across parts of NC and northern NC. Locally strong gusts capable of damaging winds will remain the primary threat. ..Grams.. 05/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NE TO WESTERN IA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Great Plains and Mid-Missouri Valley through sunrise. A swath of damaging winds with gusts from 70-90 mph is most likely across central and eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. Isolated intense thunderstorms remain possible this evening into tonight across parts of the southern Great Plains, including a few tornadoes and very large hail. ...Central to northern Great Plains... Large hail and a few tornadoes have been the primary reported hazards thus far with scattered to widespread thunderstorms from far southern ND into western NE. While the storms over the Dakotas are expected to weaken after sunset, pronounced MCS development appears probable tonight through tomorrow morning across NE into IA. The current tail-end supercell complex, just west of North Platte, should grow upscale into a bowing MCS. This will be aided by rapid strengthening of the low-level jet over KS/NE to 60-70 kts during the next few hours and a downstream plume of moderate to large buoyancy advecting quickly northward across the Mid-MO Valley. While low-level instability, especially with northern extent, should remain weak, the strong forcing for ascent and abundant MUCAPE will be favorable for a swath of severe wind gusts. Recent HRRR soundings indicate a rear-inflow jet to around 80 kts, suggesting that gusts from 70-90 mph should be anticipated as the bowing MCS matures. Have expanded level 2-3/SLGT-ENH threats farther east-northeast in IA to account for potential severe winds persisting through 12Z. ...Southern Great Plains... A few intense supercells have been sustained along the dryline from southwest OK to central TX and east along a residual outflow in east-central TX. Tornadoes, very large hail, and localized severe gusts will remain possible over the next couple hours within a large CAPE but weak forcing for ascent environment, before these storms wane into late evening. Additional low-level warm theta-e advection storms may develop over parts of the Red River Valley overnight with large hail as the primary threat. ...Southern Appalachians and Carolinas... Downstream of an MCV over KY, a plume of modest buoyancy (as sampled by the 00Z Nashville sounding) with scattered thunderstorms should persist tonight from eastern TN across parts of NC and northern NC. Locally strong gusts capable of damaging winds will remain the primary threat. ..Grams.. 05/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NE TO WESTERN IA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Great Plains and Mid-Missouri Valley through sunrise. A swath of damaging winds with gusts from 70-90 mph is most likely across central and eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. Isolated intense thunderstorms remain possible this evening into tonight across parts of the southern Great Plains, including a few tornadoes and very large hail. ...Central to northern Great Plains... Large hail and a few tornadoes have been the primary reported hazards thus far with scattered to widespread thunderstorms from far southern ND into western NE. While the storms over the Dakotas are expected to weaken after sunset, pronounced MCS development appears probable tonight through tomorrow morning across NE into IA. The current tail-end supercell complex, just west of North Platte, should grow upscale into a bowing MCS. This will be aided by rapid strengthening of the low-level jet over KS/NE to 60-70 kts during the next few hours and a downstream plume of moderate to large buoyancy advecting quickly northward across the Mid-MO Valley. While low-level instability, especially with northern extent, should remain weak, the strong forcing for ascent and abundant MUCAPE will be favorable for a swath of severe wind gusts. Recent HRRR soundings indicate a rear-inflow jet to around 80 kts, suggesting that gusts from 70-90 mph should be anticipated as the bowing MCS matures. Have expanded level 2-3/SLGT-ENH threats farther east-northeast in IA to account for potential severe winds persisting through 12Z. ...Southern Great Plains... A few intense supercells have been sustained along the dryline from southwest OK to central TX and east along a residual outflow in east-central TX. Tornadoes, very large hail, and localized severe gusts will remain possible over the next couple hours within a large CAPE but weak forcing for ascent environment, before these storms wane into late evening. Additional low-level warm theta-e advection storms may develop over parts of the Red River Valley overnight with large hail as the primary threat. ...Southern Appalachians and Carolinas... Downstream of an MCV over KY, a plume of modest buoyancy (as sampled by the 00Z Nashville sounding) with scattered thunderstorms should persist tonight from eastern TN across parts of NC and northern NC. Locally strong gusts capable of damaging winds will remain the primary threat. ..Grams.. 05/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NE TO WESTERN IA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Great Plains and Mid-Missouri Valley through sunrise. A swath of damaging winds with gusts from 70-90 mph is most likely across central and eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. Isolated intense thunderstorms remain possible this evening into tonight across parts of the southern Great Plains, including a few tornadoes and very large hail. ...Central to northern Great Plains... Large hail and a few tornadoes have been the primary reported hazards thus far with scattered to widespread thunderstorms from far southern ND into western NE. While the storms over the Dakotas are expected to weaken after sunset, pronounced MCS development appears probable tonight through tomorrow morning across NE into IA. The current tail-end supercell complex, just west of North Platte, should grow upscale into a bowing MCS. This will be aided by rapid strengthening of the low-level jet over KS/NE to 60-70 kts during the next few hours and a downstream plume of moderate to large buoyancy advecting quickly northward across the Mid-MO Valley. While low-level instability, especially with northern extent, should remain weak, the strong forcing for ascent and abundant MUCAPE will be favorable for a swath of severe wind gusts. Recent HRRR soundings indicate a rear-inflow jet to around 80 kts, suggesting that gusts from 70-90 mph should be anticipated as the bowing MCS matures. Have expanded level 2-3/SLGT-ENH threats farther east-northeast in IA to account for potential severe winds persisting through 12Z. ...Southern Great Plains... A few intense supercells have been sustained along the dryline from southwest OK to central TX and east along a residual outflow in east-central TX. Tornadoes, very large hail, and localized severe gusts will remain possible over the next couple hours within a large CAPE but weak forcing for ascent environment, before these storms wane into late evening. Additional low-level warm theta-e advection storms may develop over parts of the Red River Valley overnight with large hail as the primary threat. ...Southern Appalachians and Carolinas... Downstream of an MCV over KY, a plume of modest buoyancy (as sampled by the 00Z Nashville sounding) with scattered thunderstorms should persist tonight from eastern TN across parts of NC and northern NC. Locally strong gusts capable of damaging winds will remain the primary threat. ..Grams.. 05/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NE TO WESTERN IA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Great Plains and Mid-Missouri Valley through sunrise. A swath of damaging winds with gusts from 70-90 mph is most likely across central and eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. Isolated intense thunderstorms remain possible this evening into tonight across parts of the southern Great Plains, including a few tornadoes and very large hail. ...Central to northern Great Plains... Large hail and a few tornadoes have been the primary reported hazards thus far with scattered to widespread thunderstorms from far southern ND into western NE. While the storms over the Dakotas are expected to weaken after sunset, pronounced MCS development appears probable tonight through tomorrow morning across NE into IA. The current tail-end supercell complex, just west of North Platte, should grow upscale into a bowing MCS. This will be aided by rapid strengthening of the low-level jet over KS/NE to 60-70 kts during the next few hours and a downstream plume of moderate to large buoyancy advecting quickly northward across the Mid-MO Valley. While low-level instability, especially with northern extent, should remain weak, the strong forcing for ascent and abundant MUCAPE will be favorable for a swath of severe wind gusts. Recent HRRR soundings indicate a rear-inflow jet to around 80 kts, suggesting that gusts from 70-90 mph should be anticipated as the bowing MCS matures. Have expanded level 2-3/SLGT-ENH threats farther east-northeast in IA to account for potential severe winds persisting through 12Z. ...Southern Great Plains... A few intense supercells have been sustained along the dryline from southwest OK to central TX and east along a residual outflow in east-central TX. Tornadoes, very large hail, and localized severe gusts will remain possible over the next couple hours within a large CAPE but weak forcing for ascent environment, before these storms wane into late evening. Additional low-level warm theta-e advection storms may develop over parts of the Red River Valley overnight with large hail as the primary threat. ...Southern Appalachians and Carolinas... Downstream of an MCV over KY, a plume of modest buoyancy (as sampled by the 00Z Nashville sounding) with scattered thunderstorms should persist tonight from eastern TN across parts of NC and northern NC. Locally strong gusts capable of damaging winds will remain the primary threat. ..Grams.. 05/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NE TO WESTERN IA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Great Plains and Mid-Missouri Valley through sunrise. A swath of damaging winds with gusts from 70-90 mph is most likely across central and eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. Isolated intense thunderstorms remain possible this evening into tonight across parts of the southern Great Plains, including a few tornadoes and very large hail. ...Central to northern Great Plains... Large hail and a few tornadoes have been the primary reported hazards thus far with scattered to widespread thunderstorms from far southern ND into western NE. While the storms over the Dakotas are expected to weaken after sunset, pronounced MCS development appears probable tonight through tomorrow morning across NE into IA. The current tail-end supercell complex, just west of North Platte, should grow upscale into a bowing MCS. This will be aided by rapid strengthening of the low-level jet over KS/NE to 60-70 kts during the next few hours and a downstream plume of moderate to large buoyancy advecting quickly northward across the Mid-MO Valley. While low-level instability, especially with northern extent, should remain weak, the strong forcing for ascent and abundant MUCAPE will be favorable for a swath of severe wind gusts. Recent HRRR soundings indicate a rear-inflow jet to around 80 kts, suggesting that gusts from 70-90 mph should be anticipated as the bowing MCS matures. Have expanded level 2-3/SLGT-ENH threats farther east-northeast in IA to account for potential severe winds persisting through 12Z. ...Southern Great Plains... A few intense supercells have been sustained along the dryline from southwest OK to central TX and east along a residual outflow in east-central TX. Tornadoes, very large hail, and localized severe gusts will remain possible over the next couple hours within a large CAPE but weak forcing for ascent environment, before these storms wane into late evening. Additional low-level warm theta-e advection storms may develop over parts of the Red River Valley overnight with large hail as the primary threat. ...Southern Appalachians and Carolinas... Downstream of an MCV over KY, a plume of modest buoyancy (as sampled by the 00Z Nashville sounding) with scattered thunderstorms should persist tonight from eastern TN across parts of NC and northern NC. Locally strong gusts capable of damaging winds will remain the primary threat. ..Grams.. 05/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NE TO WESTERN IA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Great Plains and Mid-Missouri Valley through sunrise. A swath of damaging winds with gusts from 70-90 mph is most likely across central and eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. Isolated intense thunderstorms remain possible this evening into tonight across parts of the southern Great Plains, including a few tornadoes and very large hail. ...Central to northern Great Plains... Large hail and a few tornadoes have been the primary reported hazards thus far with scattered to widespread thunderstorms from far southern ND into western NE. While the storms over the Dakotas are expected to weaken after sunset, pronounced MCS development appears probable tonight through tomorrow morning across NE into IA. The current tail-end supercell complex, just west of North Platte, should grow upscale into a bowing MCS. This will be aided by rapid strengthening of the low-level jet over KS/NE to 60-70 kts during the next few hours and a downstream plume of moderate to large buoyancy advecting quickly northward across the Mid-MO Valley. While low-level instability, especially with northern extent, should remain weak, the strong forcing for ascent and abundant MUCAPE will be favorable for a swath of severe wind gusts. Recent HRRR soundings indicate a rear-inflow jet to around 80 kts, suggesting that gusts from 70-90 mph should be anticipated as the bowing MCS matures. Have expanded level 2-3/SLGT-ENH threats farther east-northeast in IA to account for potential severe winds persisting through 12Z. ...Southern Great Plains... A few intense supercells have been sustained along the dryline from southwest OK to central TX and east along a residual outflow in east-central TX. Tornadoes, very large hail, and localized severe gusts will remain possible over the next couple hours within a large CAPE but weak forcing for ascent environment, before these storms wane into late evening. Additional low-level warm theta-e advection storms may develop over parts of the Red River Valley overnight with large hail as the primary threat. ...Southern Appalachians and Carolinas... Downstream of an MCV over KY, a plume of modest buoyancy (as sampled by the 00Z Nashville sounding) with scattered thunderstorms should persist tonight from eastern TN across parts of NC and northern NC. Locally strong gusts capable of damaging winds will remain the primary threat. ..Grams.. 05/24/2024 Read more