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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z No further forecast updates were needed, as current thinking remains unchanged. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... An approaching West Coast trough will increase westerly gradients across portions of Idaho on Thursday. Across the Snake River Valley, relative-humidity reductions around 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 10-20 mph. Critical winds look to remain too localized for Critical highlights at this time. As such, an Elevated delineation was maintained to cover this threat. Precipitable water will increase across southern/central Arizona on Thursday with an increase in thunderstorm coverage. Along the edge of this moisture, across central/northern Arizona, a few high-based dry thunderstorms will be possible, with new ignitions from lighting starts. Slow storm motions should help keep this threat too localized for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z No further forecast updates were needed, as current thinking remains unchanged. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... An approaching West Coast trough will increase westerly gradients across portions of Idaho on Thursday. Across the Snake River Valley, relative-humidity reductions around 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 10-20 mph. Critical winds look to remain too localized for Critical highlights at this time. As such, an Elevated delineation was maintained to cover this threat. Precipitable water will increase across southern/central Arizona on Thursday with an increase in thunderstorm coverage. Along the edge of this moisture, across central/northern Arizona, a few high-based dry thunderstorms will be possible, with new ignitions from lighting starts. Slow storm motions should help keep this threat too localized for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z No further forecast updates were needed, as current thinking remains unchanged. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... An approaching West Coast trough will increase westerly gradients across portions of Idaho on Thursday. Across the Snake River Valley, relative-humidity reductions around 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 10-20 mph. Critical winds look to remain too localized for Critical highlights at this time. As such, an Elevated delineation was maintained to cover this threat. Precipitable water will increase across southern/central Arizona on Thursday with an increase in thunderstorm coverage. Along the edge of this moisture, across central/northern Arizona, a few high-based dry thunderstorms will be possible, with new ignitions from lighting starts. Slow storm motions should help keep this threat too localized for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z No further forecast updates were needed, as current thinking remains unchanged. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... An approaching West Coast trough will increase westerly gradients across portions of Idaho on Thursday. Across the Snake River Valley, relative-humidity reductions around 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 10-20 mph. Critical winds look to remain too localized for Critical highlights at this time. As such, an Elevated delineation was maintained to cover this threat. Precipitable water will increase across southern/central Arizona on Thursday with an increase in thunderstorm coverage. Along the edge of this moisture, across central/northern Arizona, a few high-based dry thunderstorms will be possible, with new ignitions from lighting starts. Slow storm motions should help keep this threat too localized for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z No further forecast updates were needed, as current thinking remains unchanged. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... An approaching West Coast trough will increase westerly gradients across portions of Idaho on Thursday. Across the Snake River Valley, relative-humidity reductions around 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 10-20 mph. Critical winds look to remain too localized for Critical highlights at this time. As such, an Elevated delineation was maintained to cover this threat. Precipitable water will increase across southern/central Arizona on Thursday with an increase in thunderstorm coverage. Along the edge of this moisture, across central/northern Arizona, a few high-based dry thunderstorms will be possible, with new ignitions from lighting starts. Slow storm motions should help keep this threat too localized for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z No further forecast updates were needed, as current thinking remains unchanged. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... An approaching West Coast trough will increase westerly gradients across portions of Idaho on Thursday. Across the Snake River Valley, relative-humidity reductions around 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 10-20 mph. Critical winds look to remain too localized for Critical highlights at this time. As such, an Elevated delineation was maintained to cover this threat. Precipitable water will increase across southern/central Arizona on Thursday with an increase in thunderstorm coverage. Along the edge of this moisture, across central/northern Arizona, a few high-based dry thunderstorms will be possible, with new ignitions from lighting starts. Slow storm motions should help keep this threat too localized for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z No further forecast updates were needed, as current thinking remains unchanged. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... An approaching West Coast trough will increase westerly gradients across portions of Idaho on Thursday. Across the Snake River Valley, relative-humidity reductions around 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 10-20 mph. Critical winds look to remain too localized for Critical highlights at this time. As such, an Elevated delineation was maintained to cover this threat. Precipitable water will increase across southern/central Arizona on Thursday with an increase in thunderstorm coverage. Along the edge of this moisture, across central/northern Arizona, a few high-based dry thunderstorms will be possible, with new ignitions from lighting starts. Slow storm motions should help keep this threat too localized for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0518 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 518 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..07/10/24 ATTN...WFO...LWX...CTP...AKQ...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 518 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DCC001-102040- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC001-003-005-013-015-017-021-025-027-031-033-043-510-102040- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGANY ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CARROLL CECIL CHARLES FREDERICK HARFORD HOWARD MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES WASHINGTON MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY Read more

WW 0517 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 517 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W AOO TO 30 ESE DUJ TO 30 ENE DUJ TO 20 SSE BFD TO 10 SSW BFD TO 20 W BFD TO 25 NNE FKL. ..LYONS..07/10/24 ATTN...WFO...ALY...BUF...BGM...BTV...CTP...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 517 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NYC001-003-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-023-025-029-031-033-035- 037-041-043-045-049-051-053-055-057-063-065-067-069-073-075-077- 083-089-091-093-095-097-099-101-107-109-113-115-117-121-123- 102040- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALBANY ALLEGANY BROOME CATTARAUGUS CAYUGA CHAUTAUQUA CHEMUNG CHENANGO CLINTON CORTLAND DELAWARE ERIE ESSEX FRANKLIN FULTON GENESEE HAMILTON HERKIMER JEFFERSON LEWIS LIVINGSTON MADISON MONROE MONTGOMERY NIAGARA ONEIDA ONONDAGA ONTARIO ORLEANS OSWEGO OTSEGO RENSSELAER ST. LAWRENCE SARATOGA SCHENECTADY SCHOHARIE SCHUYLER SENECA STEUBEN TIOGA TOMPKINS WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE WYOMING YATES Read more

MD 1570 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 517... FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 1570 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Areas affected...Parts of central/northern New York Concerning...Tornado Watch 517... Valid 101715Z - 101845Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 517 continues. SUMMARY...Discrete storms in central New York will encounter increasingly favorable environment for tornadoes as the move northeast the next 1-2 hours. DISCUSSION...A few discrete storms have formed north-northeast of Binghamton. With the more dense cloud cover shifting northward, temperatures are beginning to rise into the low to mid 80s F ahead of these storms. Given the favorable storm mode and low-level shear near the warm front (effective SRH around 200 m2/s2 per objective mesoanalysis), the tornado risk with these storms will likely increase over the next 1-2 hours. ..Wendt.. 07/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... LAT...LON 42807597 43557580 43917540 44107453 43867407 43577392 43127409 42637474 42527518 42427592 42447603 42807597 Read more

MD 1569 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...CENTRAL MARYLAND...NORTHERN/CENTRAL VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1569 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Areas affected...South-central Pennsylvania...central Maryland...northern/central Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 101652Z - 101845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Widely scattered to scattered storms will pose a threat of mainly damaging winds and a tornado or two. A severe thunderstorm watch is likely for parts of Virginia into south-central Pennsylvania. DISCUSSION...A very moist airmass is in place across the Mid-Atlantic. Dewpoints are in generally in the low/mid 70s F. Morning observed soundings from the region suggest even limited heating would lead to surface-based destabilization. Current surface observations already show temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s F which should be sufficient. Visible satellite shows a few updrafts beginning to deepen within the Blue Ridge. Modest mid-level ascent will occur this afternoon, particularly for northern Virginia into south-central Pennsylvania. Coupled with the approach of a cold front from the west, widely scattered to scattered storms are expected. The greatest potential for supercells will be in south-central Pennsylvania into central Maryland/northern Virginia where effective shear will be 35-40 kts. Farther south, multicells will be the predominant mode. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazard this afternoon. A low-end tornado threat will also be present for northern Virginia into south-central Pennsylvania, where low-level shear will be slightly greater nearer to the surface low. This is also supported by KCCX/KLWX VAD data. A severe thunderstorm watch is likely for parts of the Mid-Atlantic, though uncertainty is greater with southern extent. ..Wendt/Guyer.. 07/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK... LAT...LON 38097711 37257791 37107913 37297948 37917931 38537884 39837828 40317753 40327686 39697656 38977666 38097711 Read more

MD 1568 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE
Mesoscale Discussion 1568 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1027 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Areas affected...much of central through northern New York State Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 101527Z - 101830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms may develop supercell structure and pose increasing potential for a couple of tornadoes across parts of the Finger Lakes and Mohawk Valley into the Adirondacks and Champlain Valley vicinity through 2-6 PM EDT. DISCUSSION...Downstream of a modest surface low associated with the remnants of Beryl, boundary-layer destabilization is well underway in response to insolation and moistening, across the Finger Lakes and Mohawk Valley into Adirondacks. This is occurring beneath the leading edge of notably warm and warming mid-level air (including roughly the -6 C isotherm at 500 mb), which is forecast to continue advecting northeastward across the lower Great Lakes and New England through this afternoon. As destabilization continues, thunderstorm probabilities appear likely to increase this afternoon with gradually deepening convective development. Deep-layer shear to the east of the lower Great Lakes is already sufficient for the development of supercell structures, with a belt of 30 kt flow around 850 mb enhancing low-level shear across the southern tier of New York into areas near/east of Lake Ontario, where modest clockwise-curved low-level hodographs appear most conducive to the risk for a tornado or two, in the presence of lower/mid 70s F dew points. Models suggest that this environment will tend to shift from the lee of Lake Ontario toward the Champlain Valley vicinity through 18-22Z. ..Kerr/Guyer.. 07/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... LAT...LON 43267677 43767590 44597519 44787360 43387373 42897493 42607535 42457689 42977751 43267677 Read more

WW 0518 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0518 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0518 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0518 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 101723
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Jul 10 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Papin

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND OVER A SMALL PART OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A couple instances of severe gusts or hail are possible over the central into northern High Plains Thursday afternoon. Locally damaging gusts will also be possible mainly over southeast Arizona during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, a positive-tilt upper trough will extend from the mid MS Valley and Upper Great Lakes northeastward to an upper low over southwest Quebec. A leading low-amplitude feature will move across northern New England early in the day, with warming aloft during the afternoon. To the west, a large upper ridge will remain centered over the Great Basin. Winds around the high will result in a modest northwest flow regime across the northern and central High Plains, and northeasterly winds over AZ and NM. At the surface, low pressure associated with the early day wave will likely weaken over northern New England, with substantial drying occurring from the southwest. A few thunderstorms will be possible along the Canadian border and across parts of ME, but subsidence will result in sparse/weak activity. ...Southern AZ... Storms are expected to form along the Mogollon Rim and extending into southwest NM after 18Z, with strong to locally damaging gusts spreading southwestward mainly across the Tucson area. Precipitable water around 1.00" and steep lapse rates will favor development over the higher terrain, while modest northeasterly midlevel winds around the ridge will favor a southwestward push to the storms/outflows. While instability will be greatest east of the Phoenix area, locally strong gusts could affect portions of metro. ...Central High Plains... Mid and high level winds are forecast to increase a bit over the northern high Plains, with a weak surface trough deepening into the peak heating hours. Strong heating will lead to deep mixed layers, with little inhibition. Moisture will be the limiting factor for overall storm coverage, but at least isolated cells are expected from near the Black Hills spreading southeastward across the NE Panhandle and extreme northeast CO. Given the meager moisture and fairly weak shear hail appears a lower risk as compared to locally strong to severe gusts. However, stronger cells could briefly produce hail in closer proximity to the moisture/instability gradient. ..Jewell.. 07/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND OVER A SMALL PART OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A couple instances of severe gusts or hail are possible over the central into northern High Plains Thursday afternoon. Locally damaging gusts will also be possible mainly over southeast Arizona during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, a positive-tilt upper trough will extend from the mid MS Valley and Upper Great Lakes northeastward to an upper low over southwest Quebec. A leading low-amplitude feature will move across northern New England early in the day, with warming aloft during the afternoon. To the west, a large upper ridge will remain centered over the Great Basin. Winds around the high will result in a modest northwest flow regime across the northern and central High Plains, and northeasterly winds over AZ and NM. At the surface, low pressure associated with the early day wave will likely weaken over northern New England, with substantial drying occurring from the southwest. A few thunderstorms will be possible along the Canadian border and across parts of ME, but subsidence will result in sparse/weak activity. ...Southern AZ... Storms are expected to form along the Mogollon Rim and extending into southwest NM after 18Z, with strong to locally damaging gusts spreading southwestward mainly across the Tucson area. Precipitable water around 1.00" and steep lapse rates will favor development over the higher terrain, while modest northeasterly midlevel winds around the ridge will favor a southwestward push to the storms/outflows. While instability will be greatest east of the Phoenix area, locally strong gusts could affect portions of metro. ...Central High Plains... Mid and high level winds are forecast to increase a bit over the northern high Plains, with a weak surface trough deepening into the peak heating hours. Strong heating will lead to deep mixed layers, with little inhibition. Moisture will be the limiting factor for overall storm coverage, but at least isolated cells are expected from near the Black Hills spreading southeastward across the NE Panhandle and extreme northeast CO. Given the meager moisture and fairly weak shear hail appears a lower risk as compared to locally strong to severe gusts. However, stronger cells could briefly produce hail in closer proximity to the moisture/instability gradient. ..Jewell.. 07/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND OVER A SMALL PART OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A couple instances of severe gusts or hail are possible over the central into northern High Plains Thursday afternoon. Locally damaging gusts will also be possible mainly over southeast Arizona during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, a positive-tilt upper trough will extend from the mid MS Valley and Upper Great Lakes northeastward to an upper low over southwest Quebec. A leading low-amplitude feature will move across northern New England early in the day, with warming aloft during the afternoon. To the west, a large upper ridge will remain centered over the Great Basin. Winds around the high will result in a modest northwest flow regime across the northern and central High Plains, and northeasterly winds over AZ and NM. At the surface, low pressure associated with the early day wave will likely weaken over northern New England, with substantial drying occurring from the southwest. A few thunderstorms will be possible along the Canadian border and across parts of ME, but subsidence will result in sparse/weak activity. ...Southern AZ... Storms are expected to form along the Mogollon Rim and extending into southwest NM after 18Z, with strong to locally damaging gusts spreading southwestward mainly across the Tucson area. Precipitable water around 1.00" and steep lapse rates will favor development over the higher terrain, while modest northeasterly midlevel winds around the ridge will favor a southwestward push to the storms/outflows. While instability will be greatest east of the Phoenix area, locally strong gusts could affect portions of metro. ...Central High Plains... Mid and high level winds are forecast to increase a bit over the northern high Plains, with a weak surface trough deepening into the peak heating hours. Strong heating will lead to deep mixed layers, with little inhibition. Moisture will be the limiting factor for overall storm coverage, but at least isolated cells are expected from near the Black Hills spreading southeastward across the NE Panhandle and extreme northeast CO. Given the meager moisture and fairly weak shear hail appears a lower risk as compared to locally strong to severe gusts. However, stronger cells could briefly produce hail in closer proximity to the moisture/instability gradient. ..Jewell.. 07/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND OVER A SMALL PART OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A couple instances of severe gusts or hail are possible over the central into northern High Plains Thursday afternoon. Locally damaging gusts will also be possible mainly over southeast Arizona during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, a positive-tilt upper trough will extend from the mid MS Valley and Upper Great Lakes northeastward to an upper low over southwest Quebec. A leading low-amplitude feature will move across northern New England early in the day, with warming aloft during the afternoon. To the west, a large upper ridge will remain centered over the Great Basin. Winds around the high will result in a modest northwest flow regime across the northern and central High Plains, and northeasterly winds over AZ and NM. At the surface, low pressure associated with the early day wave will likely weaken over northern New England, with substantial drying occurring from the southwest. A few thunderstorms will be possible along the Canadian border and across parts of ME, but subsidence will result in sparse/weak activity. ...Southern AZ... Storms are expected to form along the Mogollon Rim and extending into southwest NM after 18Z, with strong to locally damaging gusts spreading southwestward mainly across the Tucson area. Precipitable water around 1.00" and steep lapse rates will favor development over the higher terrain, while modest northeasterly midlevel winds around the ridge will favor a southwestward push to the storms/outflows. While instability will be greatest east of the Phoenix area, locally strong gusts could affect portions of metro. ...Central High Plains... Mid and high level winds are forecast to increase a bit over the northern high Plains, with a weak surface trough deepening into the peak heating hours. Strong heating will lead to deep mixed layers, with little inhibition. Moisture will be the limiting factor for overall storm coverage, but at least isolated cells are expected from near the Black Hills spreading southeastward across the NE Panhandle and extreme northeast CO. Given the meager moisture and fairly weak shear hail appears a lower risk as compared to locally strong to severe gusts. However, stronger cells could briefly produce hail in closer proximity to the moisture/instability gradient. ..Jewell.. 07/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND OVER A SMALL PART OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A couple instances of severe gusts or hail are possible over the central into northern High Plains Thursday afternoon. Locally damaging gusts will also be possible mainly over southeast Arizona during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, a positive-tilt upper trough will extend from the mid MS Valley and Upper Great Lakes northeastward to an upper low over southwest Quebec. A leading low-amplitude feature will move across northern New England early in the day, with warming aloft during the afternoon. To the west, a large upper ridge will remain centered over the Great Basin. Winds around the high will result in a modest northwest flow regime across the northern and central High Plains, and northeasterly winds over AZ and NM. At the surface, low pressure associated with the early day wave will likely weaken over northern New England, with substantial drying occurring from the southwest. A few thunderstorms will be possible along the Canadian border and across parts of ME, but subsidence will result in sparse/weak activity. ...Southern AZ... Storms are expected to form along the Mogollon Rim and extending into southwest NM after 18Z, with strong to locally damaging gusts spreading southwestward mainly across the Tucson area. Precipitable water around 1.00" and steep lapse rates will favor development over the higher terrain, while modest northeasterly midlevel winds around the ridge will favor a southwestward push to the storms/outflows. While instability will be greatest east of the Phoenix area, locally strong gusts could affect portions of metro. ...Central High Plains... Mid and high level winds are forecast to increase a bit over the northern high Plains, with a weak surface trough deepening into the peak heating hours. Strong heating will lead to deep mixed layers, with little inhibition. Moisture will be the limiting factor for overall storm coverage, but at least isolated cells are expected from near the Black Hills spreading southeastward across the NE Panhandle and extreme northeast CO. Given the meager moisture and fairly weak shear hail appears a lower risk as compared to locally strong to severe gusts. However, stronger cells could briefly produce hail in closer proximity to the moisture/instability gradient. ..Jewell.. 07/10/2024 Read more