Aggregator

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 102318
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Jul 10 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is expected to form this weekend or early
next week several hundred miles south of the southern tip of Baja
California. Conditions appear favorable for some slow development
thereafter while the system moves generally west-northwestward at 10
to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

MD 1575 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 519... FOR SOUTHEAST NE...NORTHEAST KS...SOUTHERN IA...NORTHERN MO
Mesoscale Discussion 1575 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0504 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Areas affected...southeast NE...northeast KS...southern IA...northern MO Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 519... Valid 102204Z - 102330Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 519 continues. SUMMARY...A threat for at least isolated hail and damaging wind may persist into the early evening. There is some potential for redevelopment northwest of the ongoing storms. DISCUSSION...A compact mid/upper-level low will continue moving south-southeastward across Iowa into this evening. Strong to occasionally severe storms that earlier developed across southwest IA are moving into northern MO late this afternoon. Storms have struggled to remain organized thus far, likely due to marginal effective shear (generally 20-30 kt). However, moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of greater than 1500 J/kg) and seasonably cool temperatures aloft could support occasional hail potential with the strongest updrafts. Rather extensive outflow has developed in the wake of these storms, which could support an isolated damaging-wind threat with any stronger storms along or just behind the gust front. Farther northwest into eastern NE, there is less influence from convective outflow, with moderate buoyancy expected to persist into early evening. While the surface pattern is rather nebulous, additional development is underway across the northwest portion of WW 519, and also just to the west of the watch, which could pose a threat of isolated hail and damaging gusts. Trends will continue to be monitored for the potential need of local watch expansion to the north and west of WW 319. ..Dean.. 07/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID... LAT...LON 41029776 41489601 40999502 40639341 40799184 40229147 39679146 39319247 39499482 39629604 39809672 40089727 40209756 41029776 Read more

WW 0519 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 519 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW LNK TO 10 NE SDA TO 10 ESE LWD TO 25 WNW IRK TO 25 NE IRK TO 15 SW BRL. ..LYONS..07/10/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...DVN...TOP...EAX...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 519 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC071-145-173-110040- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FREMONT PAGE TAYLOR KSC013-043-131-110040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN DONIPHAN NEMAHA MOC001-003-005-021-025-033-041-045-049-061-063-075-079-081-087- 103-111-115-117-121-127-129-137-147-175-177-205-211-227- 110040- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ANDREW ATCHISON Read more

WW 519 SEVERE TSTM IA KS MO NE 101945Z - 110300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 519 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 245 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Iowa Northeast Kansas Northern Missouri Southeast Nebraska * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 245 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Clusters of storms and possibly a semi-discrete supercell or two will spread generally southeastward across the region through early evening, with severe hail and wind possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles west northwest of Falls City NE to 40 miles east of Kirksville MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 517...WW 518... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 30025. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0517 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 517 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE AOO TO 25 WNW IPT TO 15 SW ITH TO 35 ENE ART TO 25 WNW BTV TO 25 ESE EFK TO 35 NNE BML. ..LYONS..07/10/24 ATTN...WFO...ALY...BUF...BGM...BTV...CTP...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 517 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NYC001-007-017-023-025-031-035-041-043-049-053-057-065-067-077- 083-091-093-095-107-113-115-110040- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALBANY BROOME CHENANGO CORTLAND DELAWARE ESSEX FULTON HAMILTON HERKIMER LEWIS MADISON MONTGOMERY ONEIDA ONONDAGA OTSEGO RENSSELAER SARATOGA SCHENECTADY SCHOHARIE TIOGA WARREN WASHINGTON PAC015-037-043-067-069-079-081-087-093-097-099-107-109-113-115- 117-119-127-131-110040- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRADFORD COLUMBIA DAUPHIN JUNIATA LACKAWANNA LUZERNE Read more

WW 517 TORNADO NY PA VT LE LO 101605Z - 110100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 517 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Upstate New York Northern and Central Pennsylvania Vermont Lake Erie Lake Ontario * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 1205 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A moist air mass along and south of a warm front, and strong atmospheric winds associated with the remnants of Beryl, will influence storms capable of tornadoes and wind damage this afternoon through early/mid-evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles west southwest of Bradford PA to 25 miles south southeast of Burlington VT. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24025. ...Guyer Read more

MD 1574 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 517... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 1574 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Areas affected...Portions of northern Mid-Atlantic into parts of northern New England Concerning...Tornado Watch 517... Valid 102053Z - 102230Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 517 continues. SUMMARY...The tornado risk will continue in WW 517, particularly near the effective warm front. A new tornado watch is possible into New Hampshire and far western Maine. DISCUSSION...Discrete supercells continue to move through central/eastern New York and into Vermont. A few weaker, but rotating, cells have developed southwest of Burlington, VT, recently. Discrete storms, particularly those near the effective warm front, will pose the greatest risk of a tornado in addition to damaging winds. Regional VAD winds from central/eastern New York into Vermont show improved low-level shear over the last couple of hours. While destabilization has been a bit more modest into New Hampshire/western Maine, there is a possibility that severe storms will progress into these areas this evening. With continued mid-level ascent and a strengthening low-level jet, a tornado watch will need to be considered farther east from WW 517. ..Wendt.. 07/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP... LAT...LON 42457675 43727597 44177413 44297290 44237148 44157098 43807055 43397080 43037172 42627365 41497635 41227692 41287744 42457675 Read more

The National Park Service issued a burn ban for campfires, fire pits and barbecue grills in North Cascades National Park and the Ross Lake National Recreation Area that took effect on July 12. The intent of the ban was to lower the risk of wildfires. The ban also affects the Lake Chelan National Recreation Area in Chelan County. The Bellingham Herald (Wash.), July 10, 2024

MD 1573 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 518... FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1573 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Areas affected...Central Virginia into south-central Pennsylvania Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 518... Valid 102022Z - 102215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 518 continues. SUMMARY...Additional storm development is possible along the cold front moving through the Mid-Atlantic. Damaging winds will be the primary risk late this afternoon into the evening. DISCUSSION...Lack of mid-level ascent has likely contributed to storm coverage and intensity being rather low near the Blue Ridge. However, with the cold front moving through the region, additional storms may develop and organize along this front late this afternoon. Temperatures broadly in the low/mid 90s F have contributed to 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE. Storm organization will be greater farther north given the proximity to the mid-level jet, but cold pool mergers could lead to linear structures farther south. Damaging winds remain the primary threat. ..Wendt.. 07/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK... LAT...LON 37227942 38547856 39857820 40177758 40187634 39697615 38317700 37517757 37077782 36907807 36977866 37227942 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Beginning D3/Friday, a weak upper-level low located off of the California coast will begin moving northward along the western periphery of an upper-level ridge centered over the Great Basin. Throughout D4/Saturday, this upper feature is expected to translate northward to the Pacific Northwest, bringing some increased chances of dry thunderstorm occurrence across much of the Sierra range into the Cascades. By D5/Sunday, significant disagreement in the medium range guidance occurs in the timing and phasing of a shortwave trough that approaches the Oregon/Washington Coast, though the occurrence of at least some dry thunder appears possible. D6/Monday through D8/Wednesday, ridging is forecast to return to much of the West, bringing with it hot and dry conditions. ...Northwest... Dry/breezy conditions are expected across portions of the southern Cascades on D3/Friday, into far Northern California. Some uncertainty remains in the strength of forecast surface winds, though with low relative humidity and terrain induced winds, there may be locally critical conditions. By D4/Saturday, isolated dry thunderstorm occurrence appears possible across much of the Sierra and Cascade ranges, into Eastern Oregon and Western Idaho, as better moisture arrives in advance of the approaching upper low. Chances for dry thunder will continue into D5/Sunday for much of Eastern Oregon into Idaho, though uncertainty in the forecast for ascent precludes the expansion or addition of dry thunder areas. There is some indication of an additional shortwave trough bringing chances of dry thunder to portions of Washington, though significant disagreement exists in model guidance on the timing and placement of the trough, precluding the addition of any dry thunder probabilities at this time. ...Northern Arizona into Southern Utah... Some chances for dry thunder exist along the northern periphery of monsoonal moisture in northern Arizona into Southern Utah on D3/Friday and D4/Saturday. However, the threat appears to be localized, with generally higher PWAT values and only modestly receptive fuels where dry thunder is most likely. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Beginning D3/Friday, a weak upper-level low located off of the California coast will begin moving northward along the western periphery of an upper-level ridge centered over the Great Basin. Throughout D4/Saturday, this upper feature is expected to translate northward to the Pacific Northwest, bringing some increased chances of dry thunderstorm occurrence across much of the Sierra range into the Cascades. By D5/Sunday, significant disagreement in the medium range guidance occurs in the timing and phasing of a shortwave trough that approaches the Oregon/Washington Coast, though the occurrence of at least some dry thunder appears possible. D6/Monday through D8/Wednesday, ridging is forecast to return to much of the West, bringing with it hot and dry conditions. ...Northwest... Dry/breezy conditions are expected across portions of the southern Cascades on D3/Friday, into far Northern California. Some uncertainty remains in the strength of forecast surface winds, though with low relative humidity and terrain induced winds, there may be locally critical conditions. By D4/Saturday, isolated dry thunderstorm occurrence appears possible across much of the Sierra and Cascade ranges, into Eastern Oregon and Western Idaho, as better moisture arrives in advance of the approaching upper low. Chances for dry thunder will continue into D5/Sunday for much of Eastern Oregon into Idaho, though uncertainty in the forecast for ascent precludes the expansion or addition of dry thunder areas. There is some indication of an additional shortwave trough bringing chances of dry thunder to portions of Washington, though significant disagreement exists in model guidance on the timing and placement of the trough, precluding the addition of any dry thunder probabilities at this time. ...Northern Arizona into Southern Utah... Some chances for dry thunder exist along the northern periphery of monsoonal moisture in northern Arizona into Southern Utah on D3/Friday and D4/Saturday. However, the threat appears to be localized, with generally higher PWAT values and only modestly receptive fuels where dry thunder is most likely. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Beginning D3/Friday, a weak upper-level low located off of the California coast will begin moving northward along the western periphery of an upper-level ridge centered over the Great Basin. Throughout D4/Saturday, this upper feature is expected to translate northward to the Pacific Northwest, bringing some increased chances of dry thunderstorm occurrence across much of the Sierra range into the Cascades. By D5/Sunday, significant disagreement in the medium range guidance occurs in the timing and phasing of a shortwave trough that approaches the Oregon/Washington Coast, though the occurrence of at least some dry thunder appears possible. D6/Monday through D8/Wednesday, ridging is forecast to return to much of the West, bringing with it hot and dry conditions. ...Northwest... Dry/breezy conditions are expected across portions of the southern Cascades on D3/Friday, into far Northern California. Some uncertainty remains in the strength of forecast surface winds, though with low relative humidity and terrain induced winds, there may be locally critical conditions. By D4/Saturday, isolated dry thunderstorm occurrence appears possible across much of the Sierra and Cascade ranges, into Eastern Oregon and Western Idaho, as better moisture arrives in advance of the approaching upper low. Chances for dry thunder will continue into D5/Sunday for much of Eastern Oregon into Idaho, though uncertainty in the forecast for ascent precludes the expansion or addition of dry thunder areas. There is some indication of an additional shortwave trough bringing chances of dry thunder to portions of Washington, though significant disagreement exists in model guidance on the timing and placement of the trough, precluding the addition of any dry thunder probabilities at this time. ...Northern Arizona into Southern Utah... Some chances for dry thunder exist along the northern periphery of monsoonal moisture in northern Arizona into Southern Utah on D3/Friday and D4/Saturday. However, the threat appears to be localized, with generally higher PWAT values and only modestly receptive fuels where dry thunder is most likely. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Beginning D3/Friday, a weak upper-level low located off of the California coast will begin moving northward along the western periphery of an upper-level ridge centered over the Great Basin. Throughout D4/Saturday, this upper feature is expected to translate northward to the Pacific Northwest, bringing some increased chances of dry thunderstorm occurrence across much of the Sierra range into the Cascades. By D5/Sunday, significant disagreement in the medium range guidance occurs in the timing and phasing of a shortwave trough that approaches the Oregon/Washington Coast, though the occurrence of at least some dry thunder appears possible. D6/Monday through D8/Wednesday, ridging is forecast to return to much of the West, bringing with it hot and dry conditions. ...Northwest... Dry/breezy conditions are expected across portions of the southern Cascades on D3/Friday, into far Northern California. Some uncertainty remains in the strength of forecast surface winds, though with low relative humidity and terrain induced winds, there may be locally critical conditions. By D4/Saturday, isolated dry thunderstorm occurrence appears possible across much of the Sierra and Cascade ranges, into Eastern Oregon and Western Idaho, as better moisture arrives in advance of the approaching upper low. Chances for dry thunder will continue into D5/Sunday for much of Eastern Oregon into Idaho, though uncertainty in the forecast for ascent precludes the expansion or addition of dry thunder areas. There is some indication of an additional shortwave trough bringing chances of dry thunder to portions of Washington, though significant disagreement exists in model guidance on the timing and placement of the trough, precluding the addition of any dry thunder probabilities at this time. ...Northern Arizona into Southern Utah... Some chances for dry thunder exist along the northern periphery of monsoonal moisture in northern Arizona into Southern Utah on D3/Friday and D4/Saturday. However, the threat appears to be localized, with generally higher PWAT values and only modestly receptive fuels where dry thunder is most likely. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Beginning D3/Friday, a weak upper-level low located off of the California coast will begin moving northward along the western periphery of an upper-level ridge centered over the Great Basin. Throughout D4/Saturday, this upper feature is expected to translate northward to the Pacific Northwest, bringing some increased chances of dry thunderstorm occurrence across much of the Sierra range into the Cascades. By D5/Sunday, significant disagreement in the medium range guidance occurs in the timing and phasing of a shortwave trough that approaches the Oregon/Washington Coast, though the occurrence of at least some dry thunder appears possible. D6/Monday through D8/Wednesday, ridging is forecast to return to much of the West, bringing with it hot and dry conditions. ...Northwest... Dry/breezy conditions are expected across portions of the southern Cascades on D3/Friday, into far Northern California. Some uncertainty remains in the strength of forecast surface winds, though with low relative humidity and terrain induced winds, there may be locally critical conditions. By D4/Saturday, isolated dry thunderstorm occurrence appears possible across much of the Sierra and Cascade ranges, into Eastern Oregon and Western Idaho, as better moisture arrives in advance of the approaching upper low. Chances for dry thunder will continue into D5/Sunday for much of Eastern Oregon into Idaho, though uncertainty in the forecast for ascent precludes the expansion or addition of dry thunder areas. There is some indication of an additional shortwave trough bringing chances of dry thunder to portions of Washington, though significant disagreement exists in model guidance on the timing and placement of the trough, precluding the addition of any dry thunder probabilities at this time. ...Northern Arizona into Southern Utah... Some chances for dry thunder exist along the northern periphery of monsoonal moisture in northern Arizona into Southern Utah on D3/Friday and D4/Saturday. However, the threat appears to be localized, with generally higher PWAT values and only modestly receptive fuels where dry thunder is most likely. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Beginning D3/Friday, a weak upper-level low located off of the California coast will begin moving northward along the western periphery of an upper-level ridge centered over the Great Basin. Throughout D4/Saturday, this upper feature is expected to translate northward to the Pacific Northwest, bringing some increased chances of dry thunderstorm occurrence across much of the Sierra range into the Cascades. By D5/Sunday, significant disagreement in the medium range guidance occurs in the timing and phasing of a shortwave trough that approaches the Oregon/Washington Coast, though the occurrence of at least some dry thunder appears possible. D6/Monday through D8/Wednesday, ridging is forecast to return to much of the West, bringing with it hot and dry conditions. ...Northwest... Dry/breezy conditions are expected across portions of the southern Cascades on D3/Friday, into far Northern California. Some uncertainty remains in the strength of forecast surface winds, though with low relative humidity and terrain induced winds, there may be locally critical conditions. By D4/Saturday, isolated dry thunderstorm occurrence appears possible across much of the Sierra and Cascade ranges, into Eastern Oregon and Western Idaho, as better moisture arrives in advance of the approaching upper low. Chances for dry thunder will continue into D5/Sunday for much of Eastern Oregon into Idaho, though uncertainty in the forecast for ascent precludes the expansion or addition of dry thunder areas. There is some indication of an additional shortwave trough bringing chances of dry thunder to portions of Washington, though significant disagreement exists in model guidance on the timing and placement of the trough, precluding the addition of any dry thunder probabilities at this time. ...Northern Arizona into Southern Utah... Some chances for dry thunder exist along the northern periphery of monsoonal moisture in northern Arizona into Southern Utah on D3/Friday and D4/Saturday. However, the threat appears to be localized, with generally higher PWAT values and only modestly receptive fuels where dry thunder is most likely. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Beginning D3/Friday, a weak upper-level low located off of the California coast will begin moving northward along the western periphery of an upper-level ridge centered over the Great Basin. Throughout D4/Saturday, this upper feature is expected to translate northward to the Pacific Northwest, bringing some increased chances of dry thunderstorm occurrence across much of the Sierra range into the Cascades. By D5/Sunday, significant disagreement in the medium range guidance occurs in the timing and phasing of a shortwave trough that approaches the Oregon/Washington Coast, though the occurrence of at least some dry thunder appears possible. D6/Monday through D8/Wednesday, ridging is forecast to return to much of the West, bringing with it hot and dry conditions. ...Northwest... Dry/breezy conditions are expected across portions of the southern Cascades on D3/Friday, into far Northern California. Some uncertainty remains in the strength of forecast surface winds, though with low relative humidity and terrain induced winds, there may be locally critical conditions. By D4/Saturday, isolated dry thunderstorm occurrence appears possible across much of the Sierra and Cascade ranges, into Eastern Oregon and Western Idaho, as better moisture arrives in advance of the approaching upper low. Chances for dry thunder will continue into D5/Sunday for much of Eastern Oregon into Idaho, though uncertainty in the forecast for ascent precludes the expansion or addition of dry thunder areas. There is some indication of an additional shortwave trough bringing chances of dry thunder to portions of Washington, though significant disagreement exists in model guidance on the timing and placement of the trough, precluding the addition of any dry thunder probabilities at this time. ...Northern Arizona into Southern Utah... Some chances for dry thunder exist along the northern periphery of monsoonal moisture in northern Arizona into Southern Utah on D3/Friday and D4/Saturday. However, the threat appears to be localized, with generally higher PWAT values and only modestly receptive fuels where dry thunder is most likely. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Beginning D3/Friday, a weak upper-level low located off of the California coast will begin moving northward along the western periphery of an upper-level ridge centered over the Great Basin. Throughout D4/Saturday, this upper feature is expected to translate northward to the Pacific Northwest, bringing some increased chances of dry thunderstorm occurrence across much of the Sierra range into the Cascades. By D5/Sunday, significant disagreement in the medium range guidance occurs in the timing and phasing of a shortwave trough that approaches the Oregon/Washington Coast, though the occurrence of at least some dry thunder appears possible. D6/Monday through D8/Wednesday, ridging is forecast to return to much of the West, bringing with it hot and dry conditions. ...Northwest... Dry/breezy conditions are expected across portions of the southern Cascades on D3/Friday, into far Northern California. Some uncertainty remains in the strength of forecast surface winds, though with low relative humidity and terrain induced winds, there may be locally critical conditions. By D4/Saturday, isolated dry thunderstorm occurrence appears possible across much of the Sierra and Cascade ranges, into Eastern Oregon and Western Idaho, as better moisture arrives in advance of the approaching upper low. Chances for dry thunder will continue into D5/Sunday for much of Eastern Oregon into Idaho, though uncertainty in the forecast for ascent precludes the expansion or addition of dry thunder areas. There is some indication of an additional shortwave trough bringing chances of dry thunder to portions of Washington, though significant disagreement exists in model guidance on the timing and placement of the trough, precluding the addition of any dry thunder probabilities at this time. ...Northern Arizona into Southern Utah... Some chances for dry thunder exist along the northern periphery of monsoonal moisture in northern Arizona into Southern Utah on D3/Friday and D4/Saturday. However, the threat appears to be localized, with generally higher PWAT values and only modestly receptive fuels where dry thunder is most likely. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Beginning D3/Friday, a weak upper-level low located off of the California coast will begin moving northward along the western periphery of an upper-level ridge centered over the Great Basin. Throughout D4/Saturday, this upper feature is expected to translate northward to the Pacific Northwest, bringing some increased chances of dry thunderstorm occurrence across much of the Sierra range into the Cascades. By D5/Sunday, significant disagreement in the medium range guidance occurs in the timing and phasing of a shortwave trough that approaches the Oregon/Washington Coast, though the occurrence of at least some dry thunder appears possible. D6/Monday through D8/Wednesday, ridging is forecast to return to much of the West, bringing with it hot and dry conditions. ...Northwest... Dry/breezy conditions are expected across portions of the southern Cascades on D3/Friday, into far Northern California. Some uncertainty remains in the strength of forecast surface winds, though with low relative humidity and terrain induced winds, there may be locally critical conditions. By D4/Saturday, isolated dry thunderstorm occurrence appears possible across much of the Sierra and Cascade ranges, into Eastern Oregon and Western Idaho, as better moisture arrives in advance of the approaching upper low. Chances for dry thunder will continue into D5/Sunday for much of Eastern Oregon into Idaho, though uncertainty in the forecast for ascent precludes the expansion or addition of dry thunder areas. There is some indication of an additional shortwave trough bringing chances of dry thunder to portions of Washington, though significant disagreement exists in model guidance on the timing and placement of the trough, precluding the addition of any dry thunder probabilities at this time. ...Northern Arizona into Southern Utah... Some chances for dry thunder exist along the northern periphery of monsoonal moisture in northern Arizona into Southern Utah on D3/Friday and D4/Saturday. However, the threat appears to be localized, with generally higher PWAT values and only modestly receptive fuels where dry thunder is most likely. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Beginning D3/Friday, a weak upper-level low located off of the California coast will begin moving northward along the western periphery of an upper-level ridge centered over the Great Basin. Throughout D4/Saturday, this upper feature is expected to translate northward to the Pacific Northwest, bringing some increased chances of dry thunderstorm occurrence across much of the Sierra range into the Cascades. By D5/Sunday, significant disagreement in the medium range guidance occurs in the timing and phasing of a shortwave trough that approaches the Oregon/Washington Coast, though the occurrence of at least some dry thunder appears possible. D6/Monday through D8/Wednesday, ridging is forecast to return to much of the West, bringing with it hot and dry conditions. ...Northwest... Dry/breezy conditions are expected across portions of the southern Cascades on D3/Friday, into far Northern California. Some uncertainty remains in the strength of forecast surface winds, though with low relative humidity and terrain induced winds, there may be locally critical conditions. By D4/Saturday, isolated dry thunderstorm occurrence appears possible across much of the Sierra and Cascade ranges, into Eastern Oregon and Western Idaho, as better moisture arrives in advance of the approaching upper low. Chances for dry thunder will continue into D5/Sunday for much of Eastern Oregon into Idaho, though uncertainty in the forecast for ascent precludes the expansion or addition of dry thunder areas. There is some indication of an additional shortwave trough bringing chances of dry thunder to portions of Washington, though significant disagreement exists in model guidance on the timing and placement of the trough, precluding the addition of any dry thunder probabilities at this time. ...Northern Arizona into Southern Utah... Some chances for dry thunder exist along the northern periphery of monsoonal moisture in northern Arizona into Southern Utah on D3/Friday and D4/Saturday. However, the threat appears to be localized, with generally higher PWAT values and only modestly receptive fuels where dry thunder is most likely. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Beginning D3/Friday, a weak upper-level low located off of the California coast will begin moving northward along the western periphery of an upper-level ridge centered over the Great Basin. Throughout D4/Saturday, this upper feature is expected to translate northward to the Pacific Northwest, bringing some increased chances of dry thunderstorm occurrence across much of the Sierra range into the Cascades. By D5/Sunday, significant disagreement in the medium range guidance occurs in the timing and phasing of a shortwave trough that approaches the Oregon/Washington Coast, though the occurrence of at least some dry thunder appears possible. D6/Monday through D8/Wednesday, ridging is forecast to return to much of the West, bringing with it hot and dry conditions. ...Northwest... Dry/breezy conditions are expected across portions of the southern Cascades on D3/Friday, into far Northern California. Some uncertainty remains in the strength of forecast surface winds, though with low relative humidity and terrain induced winds, there may be locally critical conditions. By D4/Saturday, isolated dry thunderstorm occurrence appears possible across much of the Sierra and Cascade ranges, into Eastern Oregon and Western Idaho, as better moisture arrives in advance of the approaching upper low. Chances for dry thunder will continue into D5/Sunday for much of Eastern Oregon into Idaho, though uncertainty in the forecast for ascent precludes the expansion or addition of dry thunder areas. There is some indication of an additional shortwave trough bringing chances of dry thunder to portions of Washington, though significant disagreement exists in model guidance on the timing and placement of the trough, precluding the addition of any dry thunder probabilities at this time. ...Northern Arizona into Southern Utah... Some chances for dry thunder exist along the northern periphery of monsoonal moisture in northern Arizona into Southern Utah on D3/Friday and D4/Saturday. However, the threat appears to be localized, with generally higher PWAT values and only modestly receptive fuels where dry thunder is most likely. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more