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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe-thunderstorm potential is expected to be low on Sunday. ...Discussion... Little change is expected in the upper flow field configuration over the U.S. Sunday, with ridging to remain over the West, and weak troughing/cyclonic flow over most of the central and eastern portions of the country. At the surface, a weak baroclinic zone is forecast to extend from the southern New England vicinity west-southwestward across the Tennessee Valley area and into the southern Plains. Showers and thunderstorms -- with coverage peaking through the afternoon and evening hours -- are expected across a large portion of the country. However, with modest flow aloft prevailing, potential for well-organized storms remains low. One area where risk for a strong wind gust or two may be slightly greater, will be across roughly the southern half of Arizona. Storms developing over the Mogollon Rim during the afternoon should move southward off the higher terrain. With the typical dry/deep mixed layer expected over the lower deserts, evaporative effects may support some downdraft enhancement with the strongest storms. However, at this time it appears that mid-level northerlies are a bit weak to support a more organized, southward-propagating convective event. ..Goss.. 07/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe-thunderstorm potential is expected to be low on Sunday. ...Discussion... Little change is expected in the upper flow field configuration over the U.S. Sunday, with ridging to remain over the West, and weak troughing/cyclonic flow over most of the central and eastern portions of the country. At the surface, a weak baroclinic zone is forecast to extend from the southern New England vicinity west-southwestward across the Tennessee Valley area and into the southern Plains. Showers and thunderstorms -- with coverage peaking through the afternoon and evening hours -- are expected across a large portion of the country. However, with modest flow aloft prevailing, potential for well-organized storms remains low. One area where risk for a strong wind gust or two may be slightly greater, will be across roughly the southern half of Arizona. Storms developing over the Mogollon Rim during the afternoon should move southward off the higher terrain. With the typical dry/deep mixed layer expected over the lower deserts, evaporative effects may support some downdraft enhancement with the strongest storms. However, at this time it appears that mid-level northerlies are a bit weak to support a more organized, southward-propagating convective event. ..Goss.. 07/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe-thunderstorm potential is expected to be low on Sunday. ...Discussion... Little change is expected in the upper flow field configuration over the U.S. Sunday, with ridging to remain over the West, and weak troughing/cyclonic flow over most of the central and eastern portions of the country. At the surface, a weak baroclinic zone is forecast to extend from the southern New England vicinity west-southwestward across the Tennessee Valley area and into the southern Plains. Showers and thunderstorms -- with coverage peaking through the afternoon and evening hours -- are expected across a large portion of the country. However, with modest flow aloft prevailing, potential for well-organized storms remains low. One area where risk for a strong wind gust or two may be slightly greater, will be across roughly the southern half of Arizona. Storms developing over the Mogollon Rim during the afternoon should move southward off the higher terrain. With the typical dry/deep mixed layer expected over the lower deserts, evaporative effects may support some downdraft enhancement with the strongest storms. However, at this time it appears that mid-level northerlies are a bit weak to support a more organized, southward-propagating convective event. ..Goss.. 07/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe-thunderstorm potential is expected to be low on Sunday. ...Discussion... Little change is expected in the upper flow field configuration over the U.S. Sunday, with ridging to remain over the West, and weak troughing/cyclonic flow over most of the central and eastern portions of the country. At the surface, a weak baroclinic zone is forecast to extend from the southern New England vicinity west-southwestward across the Tennessee Valley area and into the southern Plains. Showers and thunderstorms -- with coverage peaking through the afternoon and evening hours -- are expected across a large portion of the country. However, with modest flow aloft prevailing, potential for well-organized storms remains low. One area where risk for a strong wind gust or two may be slightly greater, will be across roughly the southern half of Arizona. Storms developing over the Mogollon Rim during the afternoon should move southward off the higher terrain. With the typical dry/deep mixed layer expected over the lower deserts, evaporative effects may support some downdraft enhancement with the strongest storms. However, at this time it appears that mid-level northerlies are a bit weak to support a more organized, southward-propagating convective event. ..Goss.. 07/20/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...Update... Only very minor adjustments were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area across the northern Great Basin and Northwest. Shallow mid-level moisture atop a well mixed boundary layer is still anticipated near the aforementioned areas later this afternoon through early Sunday morning. Subtle ascent accompanying a mid to upper-level trough, along with orographic lift, should result in isolated dry thunderstorms developing. Further southeast across central NV and the rest of the Sierra Nevada Mountains, slower moving thunderstorms and showers are more likely to result in wetting rains. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0219 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large upper ridge will dominate the western US through the forecast period within a relatively stagnant mid-level flow pattern. A broad Pacific trough will move onshore to the west of the ridge, bringing isolated thunderstorms to portions of the Northwest. To the east, northwesterly flow aloft will continue over the northern Rockies and Intermountain west with seasonable monsoon moisture. Widely scattered thunderstorms are likely through the afternoon. ...Northern Great Basin and Northwest... To the west of the upper ridge, subtle ascent will gradually overspread portions of the northern Great Basin and Pacific Northwest ahead of the advancing upper trough. PWAT values are forecast to increase through the day, reaching 0.8 to 1 inches by this evening. Continued moisture advection should allow for gradual mid-level destabilization and dry thunderstorm development along the higher terrain by mid afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms over the northern Great Basin should slowly expand in coverage to the northwest from late in the afternoon and into the overnight period. Enhanced flow aloft will allow for moderate storm motions of 20-25 kt atop relatively dry boundary layer. This will likely support dry thunderstorm potential through the overnight hours despite increasing mid-level moisture. Given the potential for lightning over very receptive fuels (95th percentile ERCs), the ISODRYT area was expanded westward into portions of west/southwest OR. ...Northern Rockies... East of the ridge, confidence in dry storms is lower, as flow aloft will be weaker and deeper monsoonal moisture is expected to be in place. The combination of slower speeds and higher PWATs suggests storms may have greater rainfall efficiency. Still, the potential for lighting outside of the wetter cores from scattered storm coverage, and the possibility of a few drier storms, suggest some threat for lightning ignitions. However, the best storm coverage appears displaced to the east, away from the more receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...Update... Only very minor adjustments were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area across the northern Great Basin and Northwest. Shallow mid-level moisture atop a well mixed boundary layer is still anticipated near the aforementioned areas later this afternoon through early Sunday morning. Subtle ascent accompanying a mid to upper-level trough, along with orographic lift, should result in isolated dry thunderstorms developing. Further southeast across central NV and the rest of the Sierra Nevada Mountains, slower moving thunderstorms and showers are more likely to result in wetting rains. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0219 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large upper ridge will dominate the western US through the forecast period within a relatively stagnant mid-level flow pattern. A broad Pacific trough will move onshore to the west of the ridge, bringing isolated thunderstorms to portions of the Northwest. To the east, northwesterly flow aloft will continue over the northern Rockies and Intermountain west with seasonable monsoon moisture. Widely scattered thunderstorms are likely through the afternoon. ...Northern Great Basin and Northwest... To the west of the upper ridge, subtle ascent will gradually overspread portions of the northern Great Basin and Pacific Northwest ahead of the advancing upper trough. PWAT values are forecast to increase through the day, reaching 0.8 to 1 inches by this evening. Continued moisture advection should allow for gradual mid-level destabilization and dry thunderstorm development along the higher terrain by mid afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms over the northern Great Basin should slowly expand in coverage to the northwest from late in the afternoon and into the overnight period. Enhanced flow aloft will allow for moderate storm motions of 20-25 kt atop relatively dry boundary layer. This will likely support dry thunderstorm potential through the overnight hours despite increasing mid-level moisture. Given the potential for lightning over very receptive fuels (95th percentile ERCs), the ISODRYT area was expanded westward into portions of west/southwest OR. ...Northern Rockies... East of the ridge, confidence in dry storms is lower, as flow aloft will be weaker and deeper monsoonal moisture is expected to be in place. The combination of slower speeds and higher PWATs suggests storms may have greater rainfall efficiency. Still, the potential for lighting outside of the wetter cores from scattered storm coverage, and the possibility of a few drier storms, suggest some threat for lightning ignitions. However, the best storm coverage appears displaced to the east, away from the more receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...Update... Only very minor adjustments were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area across the northern Great Basin and Northwest. Shallow mid-level moisture atop a well mixed boundary layer is still anticipated near the aforementioned areas later this afternoon through early Sunday morning. Subtle ascent accompanying a mid to upper-level trough, along with orographic lift, should result in isolated dry thunderstorms developing. Further southeast across central NV and the rest of the Sierra Nevada Mountains, slower moving thunderstorms and showers are more likely to result in wetting rains. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0219 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large upper ridge will dominate the western US through the forecast period within a relatively stagnant mid-level flow pattern. A broad Pacific trough will move onshore to the west of the ridge, bringing isolated thunderstorms to portions of the Northwest. To the east, northwesterly flow aloft will continue over the northern Rockies and Intermountain west with seasonable monsoon moisture. Widely scattered thunderstorms are likely through the afternoon. ...Northern Great Basin and Northwest... To the west of the upper ridge, subtle ascent will gradually overspread portions of the northern Great Basin and Pacific Northwest ahead of the advancing upper trough. PWAT values are forecast to increase through the day, reaching 0.8 to 1 inches by this evening. Continued moisture advection should allow for gradual mid-level destabilization and dry thunderstorm development along the higher terrain by mid afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms over the northern Great Basin should slowly expand in coverage to the northwest from late in the afternoon and into the overnight period. Enhanced flow aloft will allow for moderate storm motions of 20-25 kt atop relatively dry boundary layer. This will likely support dry thunderstorm potential through the overnight hours despite increasing mid-level moisture. Given the potential for lightning over very receptive fuels (95th percentile ERCs), the ISODRYT area was expanded westward into portions of west/southwest OR. ...Northern Rockies... East of the ridge, confidence in dry storms is lower, as flow aloft will be weaker and deeper monsoonal moisture is expected to be in place. The combination of slower speeds and higher PWATs suggests storms may have greater rainfall efficiency. Still, the potential for lighting outside of the wetter cores from scattered storm coverage, and the possibility of a few drier storms, suggest some threat for lightning ignitions. However, the best storm coverage appears displaced to the east, away from the more receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...Update... Only very minor adjustments were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area across the northern Great Basin and Northwest. Shallow mid-level moisture atop a well mixed boundary layer is still anticipated near the aforementioned areas later this afternoon through early Sunday morning. Subtle ascent accompanying a mid to upper-level trough, along with orographic lift, should result in isolated dry thunderstorms developing. Further southeast across central NV and the rest of the Sierra Nevada Mountains, slower moving thunderstorms and showers are more likely to result in wetting rains. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0219 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large upper ridge will dominate the western US through the forecast period within a relatively stagnant mid-level flow pattern. A broad Pacific trough will move onshore to the west of the ridge, bringing isolated thunderstorms to portions of the Northwest. To the east, northwesterly flow aloft will continue over the northern Rockies and Intermountain west with seasonable monsoon moisture. Widely scattered thunderstorms are likely through the afternoon. ...Northern Great Basin and Northwest... To the west of the upper ridge, subtle ascent will gradually overspread portions of the northern Great Basin and Pacific Northwest ahead of the advancing upper trough. PWAT values are forecast to increase through the day, reaching 0.8 to 1 inches by this evening. Continued moisture advection should allow for gradual mid-level destabilization and dry thunderstorm development along the higher terrain by mid afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms over the northern Great Basin should slowly expand in coverage to the northwest from late in the afternoon and into the overnight period. Enhanced flow aloft will allow for moderate storm motions of 20-25 kt atop relatively dry boundary layer. This will likely support dry thunderstorm potential through the overnight hours despite increasing mid-level moisture. Given the potential for lightning over very receptive fuels (95th percentile ERCs), the ISODRYT area was expanded westward into portions of west/southwest OR. ...Northern Rockies... East of the ridge, confidence in dry storms is lower, as flow aloft will be weaker and deeper monsoonal moisture is expected to be in place. The combination of slower speeds and higher PWATs suggests storms may have greater rainfall efficiency. Still, the potential for lighting outside of the wetter cores from scattered storm coverage, and the possibility of a few drier storms, suggest some threat for lightning ignitions. However, the best storm coverage appears displaced to the east, away from the more receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...Update... Only very minor adjustments were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area across the northern Great Basin and Northwest. Shallow mid-level moisture atop a well mixed boundary layer is still anticipated near the aforementioned areas later this afternoon through early Sunday morning. Subtle ascent accompanying a mid to upper-level trough, along with orographic lift, should result in isolated dry thunderstorms developing. Further southeast across central NV and the rest of the Sierra Nevada Mountains, slower moving thunderstorms and showers are more likely to result in wetting rains. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0219 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large upper ridge will dominate the western US through the forecast period within a relatively stagnant mid-level flow pattern. A broad Pacific trough will move onshore to the west of the ridge, bringing isolated thunderstorms to portions of the Northwest. To the east, northwesterly flow aloft will continue over the northern Rockies and Intermountain west with seasonable monsoon moisture. Widely scattered thunderstorms are likely through the afternoon. ...Northern Great Basin and Northwest... To the west of the upper ridge, subtle ascent will gradually overspread portions of the northern Great Basin and Pacific Northwest ahead of the advancing upper trough. PWAT values are forecast to increase through the day, reaching 0.8 to 1 inches by this evening. Continued moisture advection should allow for gradual mid-level destabilization and dry thunderstorm development along the higher terrain by mid afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms over the northern Great Basin should slowly expand in coverage to the northwest from late in the afternoon and into the overnight period. Enhanced flow aloft will allow for moderate storm motions of 20-25 kt atop relatively dry boundary layer. This will likely support dry thunderstorm potential through the overnight hours despite increasing mid-level moisture. Given the potential for lightning over very receptive fuels (95th percentile ERCs), the ISODRYT area was expanded westward into portions of west/southwest OR. ...Northern Rockies... East of the ridge, confidence in dry storms is lower, as flow aloft will be weaker and deeper monsoonal moisture is expected to be in place. The combination of slower speeds and higher PWATs suggests storms may have greater rainfall efficiency. Still, the potential for lighting outside of the wetter cores from scattered storm coverage, and the possibility of a few drier storms, suggest some threat for lightning ignitions. However, the best storm coverage appears displaced to the east, away from the more receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...Update... Only very minor adjustments were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area across the northern Great Basin and Northwest. Shallow mid-level moisture atop a well mixed boundary layer is still anticipated near the aforementioned areas later this afternoon through early Sunday morning. Subtle ascent accompanying a mid to upper-level trough, along with orographic lift, should result in isolated dry thunderstorms developing. Further southeast across central NV and the rest of the Sierra Nevada Mountains, slower moving thunderstorms and showers are more likely to result in wetting rains. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0219 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large upper ridge will dominate the western US through the forecast period within a relatively stagnant mid-level flow pattern. A broad Pacific trough will move onshore to the west of the ridge, bringing isolated thunderstorms to portions of the Northwest. To the east, northwesterly flow aloft will continue over the northern Rockies and Intermountain west with seasonable monsoon moisture. Widely scattered thunderstorms are likely through the afternoon. ...Northern Great Basin and Northwest... To the west of the upper ridge, subtle ascent will gradually overspread portions of the northern Great Basin and Pacific Northwest ahead of the advancing upper trough. PWAT values are forecast to increase through the day, reaching 0.8 to 1 inches by this evening. Continued moisture advection should allow for gradual mid-level destabilization and dry thunderstorm development along the higher terrain by mid afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms over the northern Great Basin should slowly expand in coverage to the northwest from late in the afternoon and into the overnight period. Enhanced flow aloft will allow for moderate storm motions of 20-25 kt atop relatively dry boundary layer. This will likely support dry thunderstorm potential through the overnight hours despite increasing mid-level moisture. Given the potential for lightning over very receptive fuels (95th percentile ERCs), the ISODRYT area was expanded westward into portions of west/southwest OR. ...Northern Rockies... East of the ridge, confidence in dry storms is lower, as flow aloft will be weaker and deeper monsoonal moisture is expected to be in place. The combination of slower speeds and higher PWATs suggests storms may have greater rainfall efficiency. Still, the potential for lighting outside of the wetter cores from scattered storm coverage, and the possibility of a few drier storms, suggest some threat for lightning ignitions. However, the best storm coverage appears displaced to the east, away from the more receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Southeast and central to southern High Plains, mainly from mid-afternoon to evening. ...Southeast... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough moving slowly east across KY/TN/AL towards the southern Appalachians. A mid-level anticyclone located over the Gulf Stream to the east of the Southeast U.S. will move little during the period. Late morning surface analysis indicates a very moist airmass resides over the coastal plains of GA/Carolinas with mid 70s deg F dewpoints. Ample heating via mostly sunny skies (per visible satellite data) east of a line from Macon, GA to Columbia, SC, and to the Research Triangle, will result in a moderately unstable boundary layer by early to mid afternoon. Forecast soundings show PW around 2 to 2.25 inches and moderate effective shear (20-30 kt). Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop in several clusters as convective temperatures are breached by early afternoon. Given the buoyant/high PW environment, water-loaded downdrafts will accompany the stronger thunderstorm cores. Isolated wet microbursts capable of 45-60 mph gusts will potentially result in isolated to widely scattered wind damage this afternoon and early evening. ...Central and southern High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon along the Front Range/Sangre de Cristo corridor from southeastern WY to NM, as well as over the Raton Mesa, near the lee trough, and along leftover outflow/differential-heating boundaries from prior overnight/morning convection. Isolated severe gusts and hail are possible with the stronger storms before this activity diminishes by mid to late evening. ..Smith/Jirak.. 07/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Southeast and central to southern High Plains, mainly from mid-afternoon to evening. ...Southeast... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough moving slowly east across KY/TN/AL towards the southern Appalachians. A mid-level anticyclone located over the Gulf Stream to the east of the Southeast U.S. will move little during the period. Late morning surface analysis indicates a very moist airmass resides over the coastal plains of GA/Carolinas with mid 70s deg F dewpoints. Ample heating via mostly sunny skies (per visible satellite data) east of a line from Macon, GA to Columbia, SC, and to the Research Triangle, will result in a moderately unstable boundary layer by early to mid afternoon. Forecast soundings show PW around 2 to 2.25 inches and moderate effective shear (20-30 kt). Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop in several clusters as convective temperatures are breached by early afternoon. Given the buoyant/high PW environment, water-loaded downdrafts will accompany the stronger thunderstorm cores. Isolated wet microbursts capable of 45-60 mph gusts will potentially result in isolated to widely scattered wind damage this afternoon and early evening. ...Central and southern High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon along the Front Range/Sangre de Cristo corridor from southeastern WY to NM, as well as over the Raton Mesa, near the lee trough, and along leftover outflow/differential-heating boundaries from prior overnight/morning convection. Isolated severe gusts and hail are possible with the stronger storms before this activity diminishes by mid to late evening. ..Smith/Jirak.. 07/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Southeast and central to southern High Plains, mainly from mid-afternoon to evening. ...Southeast... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough moving slowly east across KY/TN/AL towards the southern Appalachians. A mid-level anticyclone located over the Gulf Stream to the east of the Southeast U.S. will move little during the period. Late morning surface analysis indicates a very moist airmass resides over the coastal plains of GA/Carolinas with mid 70s deg F dewpoints. Ample heating via mostly sunny skies (per visible satellite data) east of a line from Macon, GA to Columbia, SC, and to the Research Triangle, will result in a moderately unstable boundary layer by early to mid afternoon. Forecast soundings show PW around 2 to 2.25 inches and moderate effective shear (20-30 kt). Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop in several clusters as convective temperatures are breached by early afternoon. Given the buoyant/high PW environment, water-loaded downdrafts will accompany the stronger thunderstorm cores. Isolated wet microbursts capable of 45-60 mph gusts will potentially result in isolated to widely scattered wind damage this afternoon and early evening. ...Central and southern High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon along the Front Range/Sangre de Cristo corridor from southeastern WY to NM, as well as over the Raton Mesa, near the lee trough, and along leftover outflow/differential-heating boundaries from prior overnight/morning convection. Isolated severe gusts and hail are possible with the stronger storms before this activity diminishes by mid to late evening. ..Smith/Jirak.. 07/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Southeast and central to southern High Plains, mainly from mid-afternoon to evening. ...Southeast... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough moving slowly east across KY/TN/AL towards the southern Appalachians. A mid-level anticyclone located over the Gulf Stream to the east of the Southeast U.S. will move little during the period. Late morning surface analysis indicates a very moist airmass resides over the coastal plains of GA/Carolinas with mid 70s deg F dewpoints. Ample heating via mostly sunny skies (per visible satellite data) east of a line from Macon, GA to Columbia, SC, and to the Research Triangle, will result in a moderately unstable boundary layer by early to mid afternoon. Forecast soundings show PW around 2 to 2.25 inches and moderate effective shear (20-30 kt). Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop in several clusters as convective temperatures are breached by early afternoon. Given the buoyant/high PW environment, water-loaded downdrafts will accompany the stronger thunderstorm cores. Isolated wet microbursts capable of 45-60 mph gusts will potentially result in isolated to widely scattered wind damage this afternoon and early evening. ...Central and southern High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon along the Front Range/Sangre de Cristo corridor from southeastern WY to NM, as well as over the Raton Mesa, near the lee trough, and along leftover outflow/differential-heating boundaries from prior overnight/morning convection. Isolated severe gusts and hail are possible with the stronger storms before this activity diminishes by mid to late evening. ..Smith/Jirak.. 07/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Southeast and central to southern High Plains, mainly from mid-afternoon to evening. ...Southeast... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough moving slowly east across KY/TN/AL towards the southern Appalachians. A mid-level anticyclone located over the Gulf Stream to the east of the Southeast U.S. will move little during the period. Late morning surface analysis indicates a very moist airmass resides over the coastal plains of GA/Carolinas with mid 70s deg F dewpoints. Ample heating via mostly sunny skies (per visible satellite data) east of a line from Macon, GA to Columbia, SC, and to the Research Triangle, will result in a moderately unstable boundary layer by early to mid afternoon. Forecast soundings show PW around 2 to 2.25 inches and moderate effective shear (20-30 kt). Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop in several clusters as convective temperatures are breached by early afternoon. Given the buoyant/high PW environment, water-loaded downdrafts will accompany the stronger thunderstorm cores. Isolated wet microbursts capable of 45-60 mph gusts will potentially result in isolated to widely scattered wind damage this afternoon and early evening. ...Central and southern High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon along the Front Range/Sangre de Cristo corridor from southeastern WY to NM, as well as over the Raton Mesa, near the lee trough, and along leftover outflow/differential-heating boundaries from prior overnight/morning convection. Isolated severe gusts and hail are possible with the stronger storms before this activity diminishes by mid to late evening. ..Smith/Jirak.. 07/20/2024 Read more

Many pine trees died during last year's drought, and now the Ips engraver beetle is eating those trees and causing limbs to fall. Since the beetles are now present in such high numbers, they are also eating ornamental trees. Affected trees need to be trimmed or removed to avoid parts or the entire tree falling on people. WBRZ (Louisiana), July 19, 2024.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Southeast and central to southern High Plains, mainly from mid-afternoon to evening. ...Synopsis... The large-scale pattern in mid/upper levels will continue to feature longwave troughing over eastern North America, and ridging in the West. The latter will be anchored by an anticyclone -- now centered over AZ -- that will retrograde slowly northwestward through the period. This process -- and a broad field of minor shortwaves and vorticity lobes in northerly/northwesterly flow -- will contribute to net height falls over much of the central CONUS. A downstream shortwave trough was evident in moisture-channel imagery from the lower Ohio Valley southwestward across western TN to eastern LA. This perturbation should move eastward across the Tennessee Valley region through midday, then over parts of GA and the Carolinas through this evening. The 11Z surface map showed a weak, quasistationary frontal zone from southern VA across eastern TN, western MS, central LA, and south-central TX. Except where locally reconfigured by convection, this frontal zone should remain quasistationary, while gradually losing definition. A lee trough -- drawn from western MT to western SD and western KS, should remain nearly in place through the day, with slight shifts possible in late afternoon toward strongly heated areas. ...Southeast... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms should form and move northeastward over the area this afternoon, as large-scale lift ahead of the approaching trough spreads atop a richly moist, strongly heated, weakly capped boundary layer. Damaging to isolated severe gusts are possible. Some of the activity may aggregate into loosely organized clusters that maximize damage potential locally. Somewhat enhanced mid/upper flow will contribute to spotty effective-shear magnitudes of 30-35 kt, aiding in organization of some of this activity. The inflow layer will be characterized by surface dewpoints commonly in the low-mid 70s F and favorable lapse rates from surface heating beneath a deep troposphere. As such, and despite the lack of large mid/upper-level lapse rates, a deeply buoyant preconvective profile should take shape, with peak MLCAPE in the 2000-3000 J/kg range over the Low Country/coastal plain, and 1500-2500 J/kg across the Piedmont. ...Central/southern High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon along the Front Range/Sangre de Cristo corridor from southeastern WY to NM, as well as over the Raton Mesa, near the lee trough, and along leftover outflow/differential-heating boundaries from prior overnight/morning convection. Isolated severe gusts and hail are possible. This activity will be moving into a generally less-buoyant airmass than the previous day, thanks to extensive prior convection and outflow over much of the region. Nevertheless, sufficient diurnal heating and residual boundary-layer moisture are expected to support both well-mixed subcloud layers and enough CAPE for deep convection. Though outflow-driven forward propagation may contribute to erratic storm motions locally, a general southeastward to southward translation is forecast, given the ambient midlevel winds. Although strong directional shear is expected, forecast soundings indicate much of this will be in the form of backing with height instead of veering, and with weak low/middle-level winds limiting vertical bulk shear. Peak afternoon MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg is possible near an irregularly defined moist axis extending from the eastern Panhandles and southwestern KS northeastward, and over eastern CO. Buoyancy will diminish atop a drier, more deeply mixed layer westward toward the mountains. Overall, convection should diminish in coverage and intensity throughout the evening. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 07/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Southeast and central to southern High Plains, mainly from mid-afternoon to evening. ...Synopsis... The large-scale pattern in mid/upper levels will continue to feature longwave troughing over eastern North America, and ridging in the West. The latter will be anchored by an anticyclone -- now centered over AZ -- that will retrograde slowly northwestward through the period. This process -- and a broad field of minor shortwaves and vorticity lobes in northerly/northwesterly flow -- will contribute to net height falls over much of the central CONUS. A downstream shortwave trough was evident in moisture-channel imagery from the lower Ohio Valley southwestward across western TN to eastern LA. This perturbation should move eastward across the Tennessee Valley region through midday, then over parts of GA and the Carolinas through this evening. The 11Z surface map showed a weak, quasistationary frontal zone from southern VA across eastern TN, western MS, central LA, and south-central TX. Except where locally reconfigured by convection, this frontal zone should remain quasistationary, while gradually losing definition. A lee trough -- drawn from western MT to western SD and western KS, should remain nearly in place through the day, with slight shifts possible in late afternoon toward strongly heated areas. ...Southeast... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms should form and move northeastward over the area this afternoon, as large-scale lift ahead of the approaching trough spreads atop a richly moist, strongly heated, weakly capped boundary layer. Damaging to isolated severe gusts are possible. Some of the activity may aggregate into loosely organized clusters that maximize damage potential locally. Somewhat enhanced mid/upper flow will contribute to spotty effective-shear magnitudes of 30-35 kt, aiding in organization of some of this activity. The inflow layer will be characterized by surface dewpoints commonly in the low-mid 70s F and favorable lapse rates from surface heating beneath a deep troposphere. As such, and despite the lack of large mid/upper-level lapse rates, a deeply buoyant preconvective profile should take shape, with peak MLCAPE in the 2000-3000 J/kg range over the Low Country/coastal plain, and 1500-2500 J/kg across the Piedmont. ...Central/southern High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon along the Front Range/Sangre de Cristo corridor from southeastern WY to NM, as well as over the Raton Mesa, near the lee trough, and along leftover outflow/differential-heating boundaries from prior overnight/morning convection. Isolated severe gusts and hail are possible. This activity will be moving into a generally less-buoyant airmass than the previous day, thanks to extensive prior convection and outflow over much of the region. Nevertheless, sufficient diurnal heating and residual boundary-layer moisture are expected to support both well-mixed subcloud layers and enough CAPE for deep convection. Though outflow-driven forward propagation may contribute to erratic storm motions locally, a general southeastward to southward translation is forecast, given the ambient midlevel winds. Although strong directional shear is expected, forecast soundings indicate much of this will be in the form of backing with height instead of veering, and with weak low/middle-level winds limiting vertical bulk shear. Peak afternoon MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg is possible near an irregularly defined moist axis extending from the eastern Panhandles and southwestern KS northeastward, and over eastern CO. Buoyancy will diminish atop a drier, more deeply mixed layer westward toward the mountains. Overall, convection should diminish in coverage and intensity throughout the evening. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 07/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Southeast and central to southern High Plains, mainly from mid-afternoon to evening. ...Synopsis... The large-scale pattern in mid/upper levels will continue to feature longwave troughing over eastern North America, and ridging in the West. The latter will be anchored by an anticyclone -- now centered over AZ -- that will retrograde slowly northwestward through the period. This process -- and a broad field of minor shortwaves and vorticity lobes in northerly/northwesterly flow -- will contribute to net height falls over much of the central CONUS. A downstream shortwave trough was evident in moisture-channel imagery from the lower Ohio Valley southwestward across western TN to eastern LA. This perturbation should move eastward across the Tennessee Valley region through midday, then over parts of GA and the Carolinas through this evening. The 11Z surface map showed a weak, quasistationary frontal zone from southern VA across eastern TN, western MS, central LA, and south-central TX. Except where locally reconfigured by convection, this frontal zone should remain quasistationary, while gradually losing definition. A lee trough -- drawn from western MT to western SD and western KS, should remain nearly in place through the day, with slight shifts possible in late afternoon toward strongly heated areas. ...Southeast... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms should form and move northeastward over the area this afternoon, as large-scale lift ahead of the approaching trough spreads atop a richly moist, strongly heated, weakly capped boundary layer. Damaging to isolated severe gusts are possible. Some of the activity may aggregate into loosely organized clusters that maximize damage potential locally. Somewhat enhanced mid/upper flow will contribute to spotty effective-shear magnitudes of 30-35 kt, aiding in organization of some of this activity. The inflow layer will be characterized by surface dewpoints commonly in the low-mid 70s F and favorable lapse rates from surface heating beneath a deep troposphere. As such, and despite the lack of large mid/upper-level lapse rates, a deeply buoyant preconvective profile should take shape, with peak MLCAPE in the 2000-3000 J/kg range over the Low Country/coastal plain, and 1500-2500 J/kg across the Piedmont. ...Central/southern High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon along the Front Range/Sangre de Cristo corridor from southeastern WY to NM, as well as over the Raton Mesa, near the lee trough, and along leftover outflow/differential-heating boundaries from prior overnight/morning convection. Isolated severe gusts and hail are possible. This activity will be moving into a generally less-buoyant airmass than the previous day, thanks to extensive prior convection and outflow over much of the region. Nevertheless, sufficient diurnal heating and residual boundary-layer moisture are expected to support both well-mixed subcloud layers and enough CAPE for deep convection. Though outflow-driven forward propagation may contribute to erratic storm motions locally, a general southeastward to southward translation is forecast, given the ambient midlevel winds. Although strong directional shear is expected, forecast soundings indicate much of this will be in the form of backing with height instead of veering, and with weak low/middle-level winds limiting vertical bulk shear. Peak afternoon MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg is possible near an irregularly defined moist axis extending from the eastern Panhandles and southwestern KS northeastward, and over eastern CO. Buoyancy will diminish atop a drier, more deeply mixed layer westward toward the mountains. Overall, convection should diminish in coverage and intensity throughout the evening. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 07/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Southeast and central to southern High Plains, mainly from mid-afternoon to evening. ...Synopsis... The large-scale pattern in mid/upper levels will continue to feature longwave troughing over eastern North America, and ridging in the West. The latter will be anchored by an anticyclone -- now centered over AZ -- that will retrograde slowly northwestward through the period. This process -- and a broad field of minor shortwaves and vorticity lobes in northerly/northwesterly flow -- will contribute to net height falls over much of the central CONUS. A downstream shortwave trough was evident in moisture-channel imagery from the lower Ohio Valley southwestward across western TN to eastern LA. This perturbation should move eastward across the Tennessee Valley region through midday, then over parts of GA and the Carolinas through this evening. The 11Z surface map showed a weak, quasistationary frontal zone from southern VA across eastern TN, western MS, central LA, and south-central TX. Except where locally reconfigured by convection, this frontal zone should remain quasistationary, while gradually losing definition. A lee trough -- drawn from western MT to western SD and western KS, should remain nearly in place through the day, with slight shifts possible in late afternoon toward strongly heated areas. ...Southeast... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms should form and move northeastward over the area this afternoon, as large-scale lift ahead of the approaching trough spreads atop a richly moist, strongly heated, weakly capped boundary layer. Damaging to isolated severe gusts are possible. Some of the activity may aggregate into loosely organized clusters that maximize damage potential locally. Somewhat enhanced mid/upper flow will contribute to spotty effective-shear magnitudes of 30-35 kt, aiding in organization of some of this activity. The inflow layer will be characterized by surface dewpoints commonly in the low-mid 70s F and favorable lapse rates from surface heating beneath a deep troposphere. As such, and despite the lack of large mid/upper-level lapse rates, a deeply buoyant preconvective profile should take shape, with peak MLCAPE in the 2000-3000 J/kg range over the Low Country/coastal plain, and 1500-2500 J/kg across the Piedmont. ...Central/southern High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon along the Front Range/Sangre de Cristo corridor from southeastern WY to NM, as well as over the Raton Mesa, near the lee trough, and along leftover outflow/differential-heating boundaries from prior overnight/morning convection. Isolated severe gusts and hail are possible. This activity will be moving into a generally less-buoyant airmass than the previous day, thanks to extensive prior convection and outflow over much of the region. Nevertheless, sufficient diurnal heating and residual boundary-layer moisture are expected to support both well-mixed subcloud layers and enough CAPE for deep convection. Though outflow-driven forward propagation may contribute to erratic storm motions locally, a general southeastward to southward translation is forecast, given the ambient midlevel winds. Although strong directional shear is expected, forecast soundings indicate much of this will be in the form of backing with height instead of veering, and with weak low/middle-level winds limiting vertical bulk shear. Peak afternoon MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg is possible near an irregularly defined moist axis extending from the eastern Panhandles and southwestern KS northeastward, and over eastern CO. Buoyancy will diminish atop a drier, more deeply mixed layer westward toward the mountains. Overall, convection should diminish in coverage and intensity throughout the evening. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 07/20/2024 Read more