Aggregator

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Mid/upper-level ridging is forecast to remain over the Western U.S. Day 3/Sunday through the middle of the week, promoting very warm and dry conditions. Meanwhile, a compact mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to slide northward along the Oregon and Washington coastlines Day 3/Sunday into Day 4/Monday. Thereafter, the latest ensemble guidance continues to suggest that the mid/upper-level ridging may begin to breakdown toward the middle of the week around Day 6/Wednesday into Day 7/Thursday across portions of the Northwest U.S. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase late Day 2/Saturday into Day 3/Sunday across portions of the Pacific Northwest as ascent increases associated with the aforementioned shortwave trough. Fast-moving thunderstorms and receptive fuels (ERCs exceeding the 90th percentile) will favor efficient lightning ignitions, especially along the periphery of heavier storm cores. Isolated dry thunderstorm potential is forecast to shift a bit further east Day 4/Monday into eastern portions of the Northwest U.S. and the northern Great Basin. However, confidence remains too low to introduce a dry thunderstorm area at this time. ...Winds and Relative Humidity... Surface winds are expected to increase in terrain-favored areas to the east of the Cascades in Oregon and Washington beginning as early as Day 3/Sunday and continuing through Day 5/Tuesday, as stronger mid-level flow impinges on the area. While elevated to locally critical conditions are possible, the coverage and/or duration of critical conditions currently appears too low to introduce a Critical probability area. A greater potential for larger-scale Elevated to Critical conditions across the Western United States is expected to accompany at least a partial breakdown of the aforementioned mid/upper-level ridge near the middle of the week. Though, at this time, there is too much uncertainty to introduce a Critical probability area. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Mid/upper-level ridging is forecast to remain over the Western U.S. Day 3/Sunday through the middle of the week, promoting very warm and dry conditions. Meanwhile, a compact mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to slide northward along the Oregon and Washington coastlines Day 3/Sunday into Day 4/Monday. Thereafter, the latest ensemble guidance continues to suggest that the mid/upper-level ridging may begin to breakdown toward the middle of the week around Day 6/Wednesday into Day 7/Thursday across portions of the Northwest U.S. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase late Day 2/Saturday into Day 3/Sunday across portions of the Pacific Northwest as ascent increases associated with the aforementioned shortwave trough. Fast-moving thunderstorms and receptive fuels (ERCs exceeding the 90th percentile) will favor efficient lightning ignitions, especially along the periphery of heavier storm cores. Isolated dry thunderstorm potential is forecast to shift a bit further east Day 4/Monday into eastern portions of the Northwest U.S. and the northern Great Basin. However, confidence remains too low to introduce a dry thunderstorm area at this time. ...Winds and Relative Humidity... Surface winds are expected to increase in terrain-favored areas to the east of the Cascades in Oregon and Washington beginning as early as Day 3/Sunday and continuing through Day 5/Tuesday, as stronger mid-level flow impinges on the area. While elevated to locally critical conditions are possible, the coverage and/or duration of critical conditions currently appears too low to introduce a Critical probability area. A greater potential for larger-scale Elevated to Critical conditions across the Western United States is expected to accompany at least a partial breakdown of the aforementioned mid/upper-level ridge near the middle of the week. Though, at this time, there is too much uncertainty to introduce a Critical probability area. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Mid/upper-level ridging is forecast to remain over the Western U.S. Day 3/Sunday through the middle of the week, promoting very warm and dry conditions. Meanwhile, a compact mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to slide northward along the Oregon and Washington coastlines Day 3/Sunday into Day 4/Monday. Thereafter, the latest ensemble guidance continues to suggest that the mid/upper-level ridging may begin to breakdown toward the middle of the week around Day 6/Wednesday into Day 7/Thursday across portions of the Northwest U.S. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase late Day 2/Saturday into Day 3/Sunday across portions of the Pacific Northwest as ascent increases associated with the aforementioned shortwave trough. Fast-moving thunderstorms and receptive fuels (ERCs exceeding the 90th percentile) will favor efficient lightning ignitions, especially along the periphery of heavier storm cores. Isolated dry thunderstorm potential is forecast to shift a bit further east Day 4/Monday into eastern portions of the Northwest U.S. and the northern Great Basin. However, confidence remains too low to introduce a dry thunderstorm area at this time. ...Winds and Relative Humidity... Surface winds are expected to increase in terrain-favored areas to the east of the Cascades in Oregon and Washington beginning as early as Day 3/Sunday and continuing through Day 5/Tuesday, as stronger mid-level flow impinges on the area. While elevated to locally critical conditions are possible, the coverage and/or duration of critical conditions currently appears too low to introduce a Critical probability area. A greater potential for larger-scale Elevated to Critical conditions across the Western United States is expected to accompany at least a partial breakdown of the aforementioned mid/upper-level ridge near the middle of the week. Though, at this time, there is too much uncertainty to introduce a Critical probability area. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Mid/upper-level ridging is forecast to remain over the Western U.S. Day 3/Sunday through the middle of the week, promoting very warm and dry conditions. Meanwhile, a compact mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to slide northward along the Oregon and Washington coastlines Day 3/Sunday into Day 4/Monday. Thereafter, the latest ensemble guidance continues to suggest that the mid/upper-level ridging may begin to breakdown toward the middle of the week around Day 6/Wednesday into Day 7/Thursday across portions of the Northwest U.S. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase late Day 2/Saturday into Day 3/Sunday across portions of the Pacific Northwest as ascent increases associated with the aforementioned shortwave trough. Fast-moving thunderstorms and receptive fuels (ERCs exceeding the 90th percentile) will favor efficient lightning ignitions, especially along the periphery of heavier storm cores. Isolated dry thunderstorm potential is forecast to shift a bit further east Day 4/Monday into eastern portions of the Northwest U.S. and the northern Great Basin. However, confidence remains too low to introduce a dry thunderstorm area at this time. ...Winds and Relative Humidity... Surface winds are expected to increase in terrain-favored areas to the east of the Cascades in Oregon and Washington beginning as early as Day 3/Sunday and continuing through Day 5/Tuesday, as stronger mid-level flow impinges on the area. While elevated to locally critical conditions are possible, the coverage and/or duration of critical conditions currently appears too low to introduce a Critical probability area. A greater potential for larger-scale Elevated to Critical conditions across the Western United States is expected to accompany at least a partial breakdown of the aforementioned mid/upper-level ridge near the middle of the week. Though, at this time, there is too much uncertainty to introduce a Critical probability area. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Mid/upper-level ridging is forecast to remain over the Western U.S. Day 3/Sunday through the middle of the week, promoting very warm and dry conditions. Meanwhile, a compact mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to slide northward along the Oregon and Washington coastlines Day 3/Sunday into Day 4/Monday. Thereafter, the latest ensemble guidance continues to suggest that the mid/upper-level ridging may begin to breakdown toward the middle of the week around Day 6/Wednesday into Day 7/Thursday across portions of the Northwest U.S. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase late Day 2/Saturday into Day 3/Sunday across portions of the Pacific Northwest as ascent increases associated with the aforementioned shortwave trough. Fast-moving thunderstorms and receptive fuels (ERCs exceeding the 90th percentile) will favor efficient lightning ignitions, especially along the periphery of heavier storm cores. Isolated dry thunderstorm potential is forecast to shift a bit further east Day 4/Monday into eastern portions of the Northwest U.S. and the northern Great Basin. However, confidence remains too low to introduce a dry thunderstorm area at this time. ...Winds and Relative Humidity... Surface winds are expected to increase in terrain-favored areas to the east of the Cascades in Oregon and Washington beginning as early as Day 3/Sunday and continuing through Day 5/Tuesday, as stronger mid-level flow impinges on the area. While elevated to locally critical conditions are possible, the coverage and/or duration of critical conditions currently appears too low to introduce a Critical probability area. A greater potential for larger-scale Elevated to Critical conditions across the Western United States is expected to accompany at least a partial breakdown of the aforementioned mid/upper-level ridge near the middle of the week. Though, at this time, there is too much uncertainty to introduce a Critical probability area. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Mid/upper-level ridging is forecast to remain over the Western U.S. Day 3/Sunday through the middle of the week, promoting very warm and dry conditions. Meanwhile, a compact mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to slide northward along the Oregon and Washington coastlines Day 3/Sunday into Day 4/Monday. Thereafter, the latest ensemble guidance continues to suggest that the mid/upper-level ridging may begin to breakdown toward the middle of the week around Day 6/Wednesday into Day 7/Thursday across portions of the Northwest U.S. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase late Day 2/Saturday into Day 3/Sunday across portions of the Pacific Northwest as ascent increases associated with the aforementioned shortwave trough. Fast-moving thunderstorms and receptive fuels (ERCs exceeding the 90th percentile) will favor efficient lightning ignitions, especially along the periphery of heavier storm cores. Isolated dry thunderstorm potential is forecast to shift a bit further east Day 4/Monday into eastern portions of the Northwest U.S. and the northern Great Basin. However, confidence remains too low to introduce a dry thunderstorm area at this time. ...Winds and Relative Humidity... Surface winds are expected to increase in terrain-favored areas to the east of the Cascades in Oregon and Washington beginning as early as Day 3/Sunday and continuing through Day 5/Tuesday, as stronger mid-level flow impinges on the area. While elevated to locally critical conditions are possible, the coverage and/or duration of critical conditions currently appears too low to introduce a Critical probability area. A greater potential for larger-scale Elevated to Critical conditions across the Western United States is expected to accompany at least a partial breakdown of the aforementioned mid/upper-level ridge near the middle of the week. Though, at this time, there is too much uncertainty to introduce a Critical probability area. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Mid/upper-level ridging is forecast to remain over the Western U.S. Day 3/Sunday through the middle of the week, promoting very warm and dry conditions. Meanwhile, a compact mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to slide northward along the Oregon and Washington coastlines Day 3/Sunday into Day 4/Monday. Thereafter, the latest ensemble guidance continues to suggest that the mid/upper-level ridging may begin to breakdown toward the middle of the week around Day 6/Wednesday into Day 7/Thursday across portions of the Northwest U.S. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase late Day 2/Saturday into Day 3/Sunday across portions of the Pacific Northwest as ascent increases associated with the aforementioned shortwave trough. Fast-moving thunderstorms and receptive fuels (ERCs exceeding the 90th percentile) will favor efficient lightning ignitions, especially along the periphery of heavier storm cores. Isolated dry thunderstorm potential is forecast to shift a bit further east Day 4/Monday into eastern portions of the Northwest U.S. and the northern Great Basin. However, confidence remains too low to introduce a dry thunderstorm area at this time. ...Winds and Relative Humidity... Surface winds are expected to increase in terrain-favored areas to the east of the Cascades in Oregon and Washington beginning as early as Day 3/Sunday and continuing through Day 5/Tuesday, as stronger mid-level flow impinges on the area. While elevated to locally critical conditions are possible, the coverage and/or duration of critical conditions currently appears too low to introduce a Critical probability area. A greater potential for larger-scale Elevated to Critical conditions across the Western United States is expected to accompany at least a partial breakdown of the aforementioned mid/upper-level ridge near the middle of the week. Though, at this time, there is too much uncertainty to introduce a Critical probability area. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Mid/upper-level ridging is forecast to remain over the Western U.S. Day 3/Sunday through the middle of the week, promoting very warm and dry conditions. Meanwhile, a compact mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to slide northward along the Oregon and Washington coastlines Day 3/Sunday into Day 4/Monday. Thereafter, the latest ensemble guidance continues to suggest that the mid/upper-level ridging may begin to breakdown toward the middle of the week around Day 6/Wednesday into Day 7/Thursday across portions of the Northwest U.S. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase late Day 2/Saturday into Day 3/Sunday across portions of the Pacific Northwest as ascent increases associated with the aforementioned shortwave trough. Fast-moving thunderstorms and receptive fuels (ERCs exceeding the 90th percentile) will favor efficient lightning ignitions, especially along the periphery of heavier storm cores. Isolated dry thunderstorm potential is forecast to shift a bit further east Day 4/Monday into eastern portions of the Northwest U.S. and the northern Great Basin. However, confidence remains too low to introduce a dry thunderstorm area at this time. ...Winds and Relative Humidity... Surface winds are expected to increase in terrain-favored areas to the east of the Cascades in Oregon and Washington beginning as early as Day 3/Sunday and continuing through Day 5/Tuesday, as stronger mid-level flow impinges on the area. While elevated to locally critical conditions are possible, the coverage and/or duration of critical conditions currently appears too low to introduce a Critical probability area. A greater potential for larger-scale Elevated to Critical conditions across the Western United States is expected to accompany at least a partial breakdown of the aforementioned mid/upper-level ridge near the middle of the week. Though, at this time, there is too much uncertainty to introduce a Critical probability area. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Mid/upper-level ridging is forecast to remain over the Western U.S. Day 3/Sunday through the middle of the week, promoting very warm and dry conditions. Meanwhile, a compact mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to slide northward along the Oregon and Washington coastlines Day 3/Sunday into Day 4/Monday. Thereafter, the latest ensemble guidance continues to suggest that the mid/upper-level ridging may begin to breakdown toward the middle of the week around Day 6/Wednesday into Day 7/Thursday across portions of the Northwest U.S. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase late Day 2/Saturday into Day 3/Sunday across portions of the Pacific Northwest as ascent increases associated with the aforementioned shortwave trough. Fast-moving thunderstorms and receptive fuels (ERCs exceeding the 90th percentile) will favor efficient lightning ignitions, especially along the periphery of heavier storm cores. Isolated dry thunderstorm potential is forecast to shift a bit further east Day 4/Monday into eastern portions of the Northwest U.S. and the northern Great Basin. However, confidence remains too low to introduce a dry thunderstorm area at this time. ...Winds and Relative Humidity... Surface winds are expected to increase in terrain-favored areas to the east of the Cascades in Oregon and Washington beginning as early as Day 3/Sunday and continuing through Day 5/Tuesday, as stronger mid-level flow impinges on the area. While elevated to locally critical conditions are possible, the coverage and/or duration of critical conditions currently appears too low to introduce a Critical probability area. A greater potential for larger-scale Elevated to Critical conditions across the Western United States is expected to accompany at least a partial breakdown of the aforementioned mid/upper-level ridge near the middle of the week. Though, at this time, there is too much uncertainty to introduce a Critical probability area. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Mid/upper-level ridging is forecast to remain over the Western U.S. Day 3/Sunday through the middle of the week, promoting very warm and dry conditions. Meanwhile, a compact mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to slide northward along the Oregon and Washington coastlines Day 3/Sunday into Day 4/Monday. Thereafter, the latest ensemble guidance continues to suggest that the mid/upper-level ridging may begin to breakdown toward the middle of the week around Day 6/Wednesday into Day 7/Thursday across portions of the Northwest U.S. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase late Day 2/Saturday into Day 3/Sunday across portions of the Pacific Northwest as ascent increases associated with the aforementioned shortwave trough. Fast-moving thunderstorms and receptive fuels (ERCs exceeding the 90th percentile) will favor efficient lightning ignitions, especially along the periphery of heavier storm cores. Isolated dry thunderstorm potential is forecast to shift a bit further east Day 4/Monday into eastern portions of the Northwest U.S. and the northern Great Basin. However, confidence remains too low to introduce a dry thunderstorm area at this time. ...Winds and Relative Humidity... Surface winds are expected to increase in terrain-favored areas to the east of the Cascades in Oregon and Washington beginning as early as Day 3/Sunday and continuing through Day 5/Tuesday, as stronger mid-level flow impinges on the area. While elevated to locally critical conditions are possible, the coverage and/or duration of critical conditions currently appears too low to introduce a Critical probability area. A greater potential for larger-scale Elevated to Critical conditions across the Western United States is expected to accompany at least a partial breakdown of the aforementioned mid/upper-level ridge near the middle of the week. Though, at this time, there is too much uncertainty to introduce a Critical probability area. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe gusts (60-75 mph) are possible this afternoon into tonight across portions of the central Great Plains. ...20Z Update... Primary adjustment to the ongoing forecast was to shift the northern bound of the Enhanced risk slightly farther south to account for the progression of convection in southwest Nebraska/northwest Kansas. An area of agitated cumulus have developed in south-central North Dakota. The environment and some CAM guidance suggest some potential for large hail and severe gusts should storms develop. The Marginal risk area has been expanded to account for this possibility. ..Wendt.. 07/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024/ ...Central/southern Great Plains... Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows several clusters of sub-severe thunderstorms over central/northern NE into SD ahead of a southeastward-migrating mid-level shortwave impulse. The disturbance is evident in water-vapor imagery and approaching the Black Hills vicinity. The mid- to upper-level anticyclone over the Great Basin/Desert Southwest will move little during the period, and aid in allowing the aforementioned disturbance to move southeastward into eastern NE/western IA later tonight. Morning surface analysis places a moist axis from western KS northward into west-central NE and SD with lower 60s deg F surface dewpoints. This adequately moist airmass will become moderately unstable by mid afternoon across southwest NE southward into extreme eastern CO and western KS (2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE). It seems plausible a southward-moving cluster will emerge from the midday ongoing thunderstorm activity over central NE and move into a boundary layer featuring steep 0-3 km lapse rates. Veering flow with height will support 35-45 kt effective shear and promote storm organization. Large hail and severe gusts will be possible with the stronger storms over mainly parts of NE and SD. As additional storms develop, a coalescing into one or more clusters will likely evolve by late afternoon over the central Great Plains. Additionally, scattered storm development is expected near/east of the Front Range with coverage forecast to increase as storms move into a more moist environment over eastern CO. Upscale growth into one or more linear clusters is expected before an MCS evolves (perhaps from a merging of thunderstorm clusters) over western KS by this evening. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard later this afternoon through the late evening. As storms move farther southwest into central KS and parts of northwest OK/TX Panhandle later this evening, weaker instability and greater CINH will likely lead to a gradual decrease in storm intensity and severe risk. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe gusts (60-75 mph) are possible this afternoon into tonight across portions of the central Great Plains. ...20Z Update... Primary adjustment to the ongoing forecast was to shift the northern bound of the Enhanced risk slightly farther south to account for the progression of convection in southwest Nebraska/northwest Kansas. An area of agitated cumulus have developed in south-central North Dakota. The environment and some CAM guidance suggest some potential for large hail and severe gusts should storms develop. The Marginal risk area has been expanded to account for this possibility. ..Wendt.. 07/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024/ ...Central/southern Great Plains... Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows several clusters of sub-severe thunderstorms over central/northern NE into SD ahead of a southeastward-migrating mid-level shortwave impulse. The disturbance is evident in water-vapor imagery and approaching the Black Hills vicinity. The mid- to upper-level anticyclone over the Great Basin/Desert Southwest will move little during the period, and aid in allowing the aforementioned disturbance to move southeastward into eastern NE/western IA later tonight. Morning surface analysis places a moist axis from western KS northward into west-central NE and SD with lower 60s deg F surface dewpoints. This adequately moist airmass will become moderately unstable by mid afternoon across southwest NE southward into extreme eastern CO and western KS (2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE). It seems plausible a southward-moving cluster will emerge from the midday ongoing thunderstorm activity over central NE and move into a boundary layer featuring steep 0-3 km lapse rates. Veering flow with height will support 35-45 kt effective shear and promote storm organization. Large hail and severe gusts will be possible with the stronger storms over mainly parts of NE and SD. As additional storms develop, a coalescing into one or more clusters will likely evolve by late afternoon over the central Great Plains. Additionally, scattered storm development is expected near/east of the Front Range with coverage forecast to increase as storms move into a more moist environment over eastern CO. Upscale growth into one or more linear clusters is expected before an MCS evolves (perhaps from a merging of thunderstorm clusters) over western KS by this evening. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard later this afternoon through the late evening. As storms move farther southwest into central KS and parts of northwest OK/TX Panhandle later this evening, weaker instability and greater CINH will likely lead to a gradual decrease in storm intensity and severe risk. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe gusts (60-75 mph) are possible this afternoon into tonight across portions of the central Great Plains. ...20Z Update... Primary adjustment to the ongoing forecast was to shift the northern bound of the Enhanced risk slightly farther south to account for the progression of convection in southwest Nebraska/northwest Kansas. An area of agitated cumulus have developed in south-central North Dakota. The environment and some CAM guidance suggest some potential for large hail and severe gusts should storms develop. The Marginal risk area has been expanded to account for this possibility. ..Wendt.. 07/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024/ ...Central/southern Great Plains... Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows several clusters of sub-severe thunderstorms over central/northern NE into SD ahead of a southeastward-migrating mid-level shortwave impulse. The disturbance is evident in water-vapor imagery and approaching the Black Hills vicinity. The mid- to upper-level anticyclone over the Great Basin/Desert Southwest will move little during the period, and aid in allowing the aforementioned disturbance to move southeastward into eastern NE/western IA later tonight. Morning surface analysis places a moist axis from western KS northward into west-central NE and SD with lower 60s deg F surface dewpoints. This adequately moist airmass will become moderately unstable by mid afternoon across southwest NE southward into extreme eastern CO and western KS (2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE). It seems plausible a southward-moving cluster will emerge from the midday ongoing thunderstorm activity over central NE and move into a boundary layer featuring steep 0-3 km lapse rates. Veering flow with height will support 35-45 kt effective shear and promote storm organization. Large hail and severe gusts will be possible with the stronger storms over mainly parts of NE and SD. As additional storms develop, a coalescing into one or more clusters will likely evolve by late afternoon over the central Great Plains. Additionally, scattered storm development is expected near/east of the Front Range with coverage forecast to increase as storms move into a more moist environment over eastern CO. Upscale growth into one or more linear clusters is expected before an MCS evolves (perhaps from a merging of thunderstorm clusters) over western KS by this evening. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard later this afternoon through the late evening. As storms move farther southwest into central KS and parts of northwest OK/TX Panhandle later this evening, weaker instability and greater CINH will likely lead to a gradual decrease in storm intensity and severe risk. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe gusts (60-75 mph) are possible this afternoon into tonight across portions of the central Great Plains. ...20Z Update... Primary adjustment to the ongoing forecast was to shift the northern bound of the Enhanced risk slightly farther south to account for the progression of convection in southwest Nebraska/northwest Kansas. An area of agitated cumulus have developed in south-central North Dakota. The environment and some CAM guidance suggest some potential for large hail and severe gusts should storms develop. The Marginal risk area has been expanded to account for this possibility. ..Wendt.. 07/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024/ ...Central/southern Great Plains... Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows several clusters of sub-severe thunderstorms over central/northern NE into SD ahead of a southeastward-migrating mid-level shortwave impulse. The disturbance is evident in water-vapor imagery and approaching the Black Hills vicinity. The mid- to upper-level anticyclone over the Great Basin/Desert Southwest will move little during the period, and aid in allowing the aforementioned disturbance to move southeastward into eastern NE/western IA later tonight. Morning surface analysis places a moist axis from western KS northward into west-central NE and SD with lower 60s deg F surface dewpoints. This adequately moist airmass will become moderately unstable by mid afternoon across southwest NE southward into extreme eastern CO and western KS (2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE). It seems plausible a southward-moving cluster will emerge from the midday ongoing thunderstorm activity over central NE and move into a boundary layer featuring steep 0-3 km lapse rates. Veering flow with height will support 35-45 kt effective shear and promote storm organization. Large hail and severe gusts will be possible with the stronger storms over mainly parts of NE and SD. As additional storms develop, a coalescing into one or more clusters will likely evolve by late afternoon over the central Great Plains. Additionally, scattered storm development is expected near/east of the Front Range with coverage forecast to increase as storms move into a more moist environment over eastern CO. Upscale growth into one or more linear clusters is expected before an MCS evolves (perhaps from a merging of thunderstorm clusters) over western KS by this evening. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard later this afternoon through the late evening. As storms move farther southwest into central KS and parts of northwest OK/TX Panhandle later this evening, weaker instability and greater CINH will likely lead to a gradual decrease in storm intensity and severe risk. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe gusts (60-75 mph) are possible this afternoon into tonight across portions of the central Great Plains. ...20Z Update... Primary adjustment to the ongoing forecast was to shift the northern bound of the Enhanced risk slightly farther south to account for the progression of convection in southwest Nebraska/northwest Kansas. An area of agitated cumulus have developed in south-central North Dakota. The environment and some CAM guidance suggest some potential for large hail and severe gusts should storms develop. The Marginal risk area has been expanded to account for this possibility. ..Wendt.. 07/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024/ ...Central/southern Great Plains... Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows several clusters of sub-severe thunderstorms over central/northern NE into SD ahead of a southeastward-migrating mid-level shortwave impulse. The disturbance is evident in water-vapor imagery and approaching the Black Hills vicinity. The mid- to upper-level anticyclone over the Great Basin/Desert Southwest will move little during the period, and aid in allowing the aforementioned disturbance to move southeastward into eastern NE/western IA later tonight. Morning surface analysis places a moist axis from western KS northward into west-central NE and SD with lower 60s deg F surface dewpoints. This adequately moist airmass will become moderately unstable by mid afternoon across southwest NE southward into extreme eastern CO and western KS (2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE). It seems plausible a southward-moving cluster will emerge from the midday ongoing thunderstorm activity over central NE and move into a boundary layer featuring steep 0-3 km lapse rates. Veering flow with height will support 35-45 kt effective shear and promote storm organization. Large hail and severe gusts will be possible with the stronger storms over mainly parts of NE and SD. As additional storms develop, a coalescing into one or more clusters will likely evolve by late afternoon over the central Great Plains. Additionally, scattered storm development is expected near/east of the Front Range with coverage forecast to increase as storms move into a more moist environment over eastern CO. Upscale growth into one or more linear clusters is expected before an MCS evolves (perhaps from a merging of thunderstorm clusters) over western KS by this evening. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard later this afternoon through the late evening. As storms move farther southwest into central KS and parts of northwest OK/TX Panhandle later this evening, weaker instability and greater CINH will likely lead to a gradual decrease in storm intensity and severe risk. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe gusts (60-75 mph) are possible this afternoon into tonight across portions of the central Great Plains. ...20Z Update... Primary adjustment to the ongoing forecast was to shift the northern bound of the Enhanced risk slightly farther south to account for the progression of convection in southwest Nebraska/northwest Kansas. An area of agitated cumulus have developed in south-central North Dakota. The environment and some CAM guidance suggest some potential for large hail and severe gusts should storms develop. The Marginal risk area has been expanded to account for this possibility. ..Wendt.. 07/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024/ ...Central/southern Great Plains... Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows several clusters of sub-severe thunderstorms over central/northern NE into SD ahead of a southeastward-migrating mid-level shortwave impulse. The disturbance is evident in water-vapor imagery and approaching the Black Hills vicinity. The mid- to upper-level anticyclone over the Great Basin/Desert Southwest will move little during the period, and aid in allowing the aforementioned disturbance to move southeastward into eastern NE/western IA later tonight. Morning surface analysis places a moist axis from western KS northward into west-central NE and SD with lower 60s deg F surface dewpoints. This adequately moist airmass will become moderately unstable by mid afternoon across southwest NE southward into extreme eastern CO and western KS (2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE). It seems plausible a southward-moving cluster will emerge from the midday ongoing thunderstorm activity over central NE and move into a boundary layer featuring steep 0-3 km lapse rates. Veering flow with height will support 35-45 kt effective shear and promote storm organization. Large hail and severe gusts will be possible with the stronger storms over mainly parts of NE and SD. As additional storms develop, a coalescing into one or more clusters will likely evolve by late afternoon over the central Great Plains. Additionally, scattered storm development is expected near/east of the Front Range with coverage forecast to increase as storms move into a more moist environment over eastern CO. Upscale growth into one or more linear clusters is expected before an MCS evolves (perhaps from a merging of thunderstorm clusters) over western KS by this evening. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard later this afternoon through the late evening. As storms move farther southwest into central KS and parts of northwest OK/TX Panhandle later this evening, weaker instability and greater CINH will likely lead to a gradual decrease in storm intensity and severe risk. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe gusts (60-75 mph) are possible this afternoon into tonight across portions of the central Great Plains. ...20Z Update... Primary adjustment to the ongoing forecast was to shift the northern bound of the Enhanced risk slightly farther south to account for the progression of convection in southwest Nebraska/northwest Kansas. An area of agitated cumulus have developed in south-central North Dakota. The environment and some CAM guidance suggest some potential for large hail and severe gusts should storms develop. The Marginal risk area has been expanded to account for this possibility. ..Wendt.. 07/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024/ ...Central/southern Great Plains... Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows several clusters of sub-severe thunderstorms over central/northern NE into SD ahead of a southeastward-migrating mid-level shortwave impulse. The disturbance is evident in water-vapor imagery and approaching the Black Hills vicinity. The mid- to upper-level anticyclone over the Great Basin/Desert Southwest will move little during the period, and aid in allowing the aforementioned disturbance to move southeastward into eastern NE/western IA later tonight. Morning surface analysis places a moist axis from western KS northward into west-central NE and SD with lower 60s deg F surface dewpoints. This adequately moist airmass will become moderately unstable by mid afternoon across southwest NE southward into extreme eastern CO and western KS (2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE). It seems plausible a southward-moving cluster will emerge from the midday ongoing thunderstorm activity over central NE and move into a boundary layer featuring steep 0-3 km lapse rates. Veering flow with height will support 35-45 kt effective shear and promote storm organization. Large hail and severe gusts will be possible with the stronger storms over mainly parts of NE and SD. As additional storms develop, a coalescing into one or more clusters will likely evolve by late afternoon over the central Great Plains. Additionally, scattered storm development is expected near/east of the Front Range with coverage forecast to increase as storms move into a more moist environment over eastern CO. Upscale growth into one or more linear clusters is expected before an MCS evolves (perhaps from a merging of thunderstorm clusters) over western KS by this evening. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard later this afternoon through the late evening. As storms move farther southwest into central KS and parts of northwest OK/TX Panhandle later this evening, weaker instability and greater CINH will likely lead to a gradual decrease in storm intensity and severe risk. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe gusts (60-75 mph) are possible this afternoon into tonight across portions of the central Great Plains. ...20Z Update... Primary adjustment to the ongoing forecast was to shift the northern bound of the Enhanced risk slightly farther south to account for the progression of convection in southwest Nebraska/northwest Kansas. An area of agitated cumulus have developed in south-central North Dakota. The environment and some CAM guidance suggest some potential for large hail and severe gusts should storms develop. The Marginal risk area has been expanded to account for this possibility. ..Wendt.. 07/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024/ ...Central/southern Great Plains... Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows several clusters of sub-severe thunderstorms over central/northern NE into SD ahead of a southeastward-migrating mid-level shortwave impulse. The disturbance is evident in water-vapor imagery and approaching the Black Hills vicinity. The mid- to upper-level anticyclone over the Great Basin/Desert Southwest will move little during the period, and aid in allowing the aforementioned disturbance to move southeastward into eastern NE/western IA later tonight. Morning surface analysis places a moist axis from western KS northward into west-central NE and SD with lower 60s deg F surface dewpoints. This adequately moist airmass will become moderately unstable by mid afternoon across southwest NE southward into extreme eastern CO and western KS (2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE). It seems plausible a southward-moving cluster will emerge from the midday ongoing thunderstorm activity over central NE and move into a boundary layer featuring steep 0-3 km lapse rates. Veering flow with height will support 35-45 kt effective shear and promote storm organization. Large hail and severe gusts will be possible with the stronger storms over mainly parts of NE and SD. As additional storms develop, a coalescing into one or more clusters will likely evolve by late afternoon over the central Great Plains. Additionally, scattered storm development is expected near/east of the Front Range with coverage forecast to increase as storms move into a more moist environment over eastern CO. Upscale growth into one or more linear clusters is expected before an MCS evolves (perhaps from a merging of thunderstorm clusters) over western KS by this evening. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard later this afternoon through the late evening. As storms move farther southwest into central KS and parts of northwest OK/TX Panhandle later this evening, weaker instability and greater CINH will likely lead to a gradual decrease in storm intensity and severe risk. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe gusts (60-75 mph) are possible this afternoon into tonight across portions of the central Great Plains. ...20Z Update... Primary adjustment to the ongoing forecast was to shift the northern bound of the Enhanced risk slightly farther south to account for the progression of convection in southwest Nebraska/northwest Kansas. An area of agitated cumulus have developed in south-central North Dakota. The environment and some CAM guidance suggest some potential for large hail and severe gusts should storms develop. The Marginal risk area has been expanded to account for this possibility. ..Wendt.. 07/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024/ ...Central/southern Great Plains... Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows several clusters of sub-severe thunderstorms over central/northern NE into SD ahead of a southeastward-migrating mid-level shortwave impulse. The disturbance is evident in water-vapor imagery and approaching the Black Hills vicinity. The mid- to upper-level anticyclone over the Great Basin/Desert Southwest will move little during the period, and aid in allowing the aforementioned disturbance to move southeastward into eastern NE/western IA later tonight. Morning surface analysis places a moist axis from western KS northward into west-central NE and SD with lower 60s deg F surface dewpoints. This adequately moist airmass will become moderately unstable by mid afternoon across southwest NE southward into extreme eastern CO and western KS (2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE). It seems plausible a southward-moving cluster will emerge from the midday ongoing thunderstorm activity over central NE and move into a boundary layer featuring steep 0-3 km lapse rates. Veering flow with height will support 35-45 kt effective shear and promote storm organization. Large hail and severe gusts will be possible with the stronger storms over mainly parts of NE and SD. As additional storms develop, a coalescing into one or more clusters will likely evolve by late afternoon over the central Great Plains. Additionally, scattered storm development is expected near/east of the Front Range with coverage forecast to increase as storms move into a more moist environment over eastern CO. Upscale growth into one or more linear clusters is expected before an MCS evolves (perhaps from a merging of thunderstorm clusters) over western KS by this evening. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard later this afternoon through the late evening. As storms move farther southwest into central KS and parts of northwest OK/TX Panhandle later this evening, weaker instability and greater CINH will likely lead to a gradual decrease in storm intensity and severe risk. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe gusts (60-75 mph) are possible this afternoon into tonight across portions of the central Great Plains. ...20Z Update... Primary adjustment to the ongoing forecast was to shift the northern bound of the Enhanced risk slightly farther south to account for the progression of convection in southwest Nebraska/northwest Kansas. An area of agitated cumulus have developed in south-central North Dakota. The environment and some CAM guidance suggest some potential for large hail and severe gusts should storms develop. The Marginal risk area has been expanded to account for this possibility. ..Wendt.. 07/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024/ ...Central/southern Great Plains... Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows several clusters of sub-severe thunderstorms over central/northern NE into SD ahead of a southeastward-migrating mid-level shortwave impulse. The disturbance is evident in water-vapor imagery and approaching the Black Hills vicinity. The mid- to upper-level anticyclone over the Great Basin/Desert Southwest will move little during the period, and aid in allowing the aforementioned disturbance to move southeastward into eastern NE/western IA later tonight. Morning surface analysis places a moist axis from western KS northward into west-central NE and SD with lower 60s deg F surface dewpoints. This adequately moist airmass will become moderately unstable by mid afternoon across southwest NE southward into extreme eastern CO and western KS (2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE). It seems plausible a southward-moving cluster will emerge from the midday ongoing thunderstorm activity over central NE and move into a boundary layer featuring steep 0-3 km lapse rates. Veering flow with height will support 35-45 kt effective shear and promote storm organization. Large hail and severe gusts will be possible with the stronger storms over mainly parts of NE and SD. As additional storms develop, a coalescing into one or more clusters will likely evolve by late afternoon over the central Great Plains. Additionally, scattered storm development is expected near/east of the Front Range with coverage forecast to increase as storms move into a more moist environment over eastern CO. Upscale growth into one or more linear clusters is expected before an MCS evolves (perhaps from a merging of thunderstorm clusters) over western KS by this evening. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard later this afternoon through the late evening. As storms move farther southwest into central KS and parts of northwest OK/TX Panhandle later this evening, weaker instability and greater CINH will likely lead to a gradual decrease in storm intensity and severe risk. Read more