Aggregator

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe-thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Discussion... A largely unchanging upper flow field is forecast to persist across the U.S. on Monday, with a ridge over the west, and weak/cyclonic flow covering much of the central and eastern states. At the surface, a weak surface baroclinic zone will remain in place from the Northeast southwestward to Texas, while a weak/largely nondescript pattern prevails elsewhere. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected across a large portion of the country, as in previous days. A stronger storm or two could affect portions of New York, where an amply unstable environment will combine with shear possibly supporting local multicell organization. Risk appears too low to warrant inclusion of severe wind probabilities at this time. Convection is also expected to develop once again across the Mogollon Rim during the afternoon, and with modest northerly flow aloft, some southward/southwestward propagation of storms into the lower deserts is again a possibility. While the deep mixed layer could support isolated stronger gusts, risk at this time does not appear to warrant introduction of 5% risk. Elsewhere, aside from a sporadic, isolated stronger storm, severe-weather is not anticipated CONUS-wide. ..Goss.. 07/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe-thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Discussion... A largely unchanging upper flow field is forecast to persist across the U.S. on Monday, with a ridge over the west, and weak/cyclonic flow covering much of the central and eastern states. At the surface, a weak surface baroclinic zone will remain in place from the Northeast southwestward to Texas, while a weak/largely nondescript pattern prevails elsewhere. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected across a large portion of the country, as in previous days. A stronger storm or two could affect portions of New York, where an amply unstable environment will combine with shear possibly supporting local multicell organization. Risk appears too low to warrant inclusion of severe wind probabilities at this time. Convection is also expected to develop once again across the Mogollon Rim during the afternoon, and with modest northerly flow aloft, some southward/southwestward propagation of storms into the lower deserts is again a possibility. While the deep mixed layer could support isolated stronger gusts, risk at this time does not appear to warrant introduction of 5% risk. Elsewhere, aside from a sporadic, isolated stronger storm, severe-weather is not anticipated CONUS-wide. ..Goss.. 07/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe-thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Discussion... A largely unchanging upper flow field is forecast to persist across the U.S. on Monday, with a ridge over the west, and weak/cyclonic flow covering much of the central and eastern states. At the surface, a weak surface baroclinic zone will remain in place from the Northeast southwestward to Texas, while a weak/largely nondescript pattern prevails elsewhere. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected across a large portion of the country, as in previous days. A stronger storm or two could affect portions of New York, where an amply unstable environment will combine with shear possibly supporting local multicell organization. Risk appears too low to warrant inclusion of severe wind probabilities at this time. Convection is also expected to develop once again across the Mogollon Rim during the afternoon, and with modest northerly flow aloft, some southward/southwestward propagation of storms into the lower deserts is again a possibility. While the deep mixed layer could support isolated stronger gusts, risk at this time does not appear to warrant introduction of 5% risk. Elsewhere, aside from a sporadic, isolated stronger storm, severe-weather is not anticipated CONUS-wide. ..Goss.. 07/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe-thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Discussion... A largely unchanging upper flow field is forecast to persist across the U.S. on Monday, with a ridge over the west, and weak/cyclonic flow covering much of the central and eastern states. At the surface, a weak surface baroclinic zone will remain in place from the Northeast southwestward to Texas, while a weak/largely nondescript pattern prevails elsewhere. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected across a large portion of the country, as in previous days. A stronger storm or two could affect portions of New York, where an amply unstable environment will combine with shear possibly supporting local multicell organization. Risk appears too low to warrant inclusion of severe wind probabilities at this time. Convection is also expected to develop once again across the Mogollon Rim during the afternoon, and with modest northerly flow aloft, some southward/southwestward propagation of storms into the lower deserts is again a possibility. While the deep mixed layer could support isolated stronger gusts, risk at this time does not appear to warrant introduction of 5% risk. Elsewhere, aside from a sporadic, isolated stronger storm, severe-weather is not anticipated CONUS-wide. ..Goss.. 07/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe-thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Discussion... A largely unchanging upper flow field is forecast to persist across the U.S. on Monday, with a ridge over the west, and weak/cyclonic flow covering much of the central and eastern states. At the surface, a weak surface baroclinic zone will remain in place from the Northeast southwestward to Texas, while a weak/largely nondescript pattern prevails elsewhere. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected across a large portion of the country, as in previous days. A stronger storm or two could affect portions of New York, where an amply unstable environment will combine with shear possibly supporting local multicell organization. Risk appears too low to warrant inclusion of severe wind probabilities at this time. Convection is also expected to develop once again across the Mogollon Rim during the afternoon, and with modest northerly flow aloft, some southward/southwestward propagation of storms into the lower deserts is again a possibility. While the deep mixed layer could support isolated stronger gusts, risk at this time does not appear to warrant introduction of 5% risk. Elsewhere, aside from a sporadic, isolated stronger storm, severe-weather is not anticipated CONUS-wide. ..Goss.. 07/21/2024 Read more

056
ABPZ20 KNHC 211725
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Jul 21 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Western East Pacific:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over
the far western portion of the eastern Pacific is associated with a
trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions are forecast
to be marginally conducive for some slow development during the
next day or so. The disturbance is forecast to move westward at
10 to 15 mph and into the central Pacific basin tonight or early
Monday. By midweek, strong upper-level winds are expected to
inhibit further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Central and Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave located well to the south-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California Peninsula is producing limited shower
and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions could become a
little more conducive for some gradual development of this system
over the next several days while it moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central and western
portions of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA...AND FROM SOUTHERN COLORADO TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into the evening across parts of central and southern Arizona, and from southern Colorado to eastern New Mexico. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level disturbance moving south-southeast across WY/CO to the east of a mid-level ridge located over the Interior West. A mid-level shortwave trough will move northward along the Pacific Northwest coast into British Columbia by tonight. Farther east, a mid-level trough/low centered over the lower MO/mid MS Valleys will meander slowly eastward. ...Sangre de Cristos and adjacent escarpment/plains... Scattered orographically favored thunderstorm development is forecast by early to mid afternoon across the mountains ahead of the aforementioned weak upper disturbance. A seasonably moist airmass (reference 12 UTC Albuquerque raob data) is in place across the region with considerable cloud breaks and partly sunny skies noted in visible-satellite imagery. Strong heating will foster upwards of 500-1250 J/kg MLCAPE by peak heating. Modest deep-layer shear will limit overall convective organization potential, but the stronger multicells (becoming numerous in coverage) will likely be capable of an isolated hail/wind risk through the early evening before this activity dissipates. ...AZ... A weak PV anomaly was noted in upper-layer water-vapor imagery this morning over northern AZ. This upper feature may aid in storm development near the Mogollon Rim later this afternoon with scattered thunderstorms forecast. A hot and a deeply mixed sub-cloud layer in the lower desert will likely support some risk for severe gusts via evaporatively cooled downbursts as this activity slowly pushes southward late this afternoon through the evening. Isolated to widely scattered severe gusts (60-75 mph) are possible with the stronger cores and outflow surges. ...Central/eastern Oregon into northwest NV... Model guidance indicates scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop later this afternoon on the southeast periphery of the mid-level shortwave trough glancing the region. Inverted-V profiles per forecast soundings suggest gusty winds may accompany the stronger downdrafts. The overall severe risk appears too limited in time/space to include a 5-percent severe wind highlight. ..Smith/Jirak.. 07/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA...AND FROM SOUTHERN COLORADO TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into the evening across parts of central and southern Arizona, and from southern Colorado to eastern New Mexico. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level disturbance moving south-southeast across WY/CO to the east of a mid-level ridge located over the Interior West. A mid-level shortwave trough will move northward along the Pacific Northwest coast into British Columbia by tonight. Farther east, a mid-level trough/low centered over the lower MO/mid MS Valleys will meander slowly eastward. ...Sangre de Cristos and adjacent escarpment/plains... Scattered orographically favored thunderstorm development is forecast by early to mid afternoon across the mountains ahead of the aforementioned weak upper disturbance. A seasonably moist airmass (reference 12 UTC Albuquerque raob data) is in place across the region with considerable cloud breaks and partly sunny skies noted in visible-satellite imagery. Strong heating will foster upwards of 500-1250 J/kg MLCAPE by peak heating. Modest deep-layer shear will limit overall convective organization potential, but the stronger multicells (becoming numerous in coverage) will likely be capable of an isolated hail/wind risk through the early evening before this activity dissipates. ...AZ... A weak PV anomaly was noted in upper-layer water-vapor imagery this morning over northern AZ. This upper feature may aid in storm development near the Mogollon Rim later this afternoon with scattered thunderstorms forecast. A hot and a deeply mixed sub-cloud layer in the lower desert will likely support some risk for severe gusts via evaporatively cooled downbursts as this activity slowly pushes southward late this afternoon through the evening. Isolated to widely scattered severe gusts (60-75 mph) are possible with the stronger cores and outflow surges. ...Central/eastern Oregon into northwest NV... Model guidance indicates scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop later this afternoon on the southeast periphery of the mid-level shortwave trough glancing the region. Inverted-V profiles per forecast soundings suggest gusty winds may accompany the stronger downdrafts. The overall severe risk appears too limited in time/space to include a 5-percent severe wind highlight. ..Smith/Jirak.. 07/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA...AND FROM SOUTHERN COLORADO TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into the evening across parts of central and southern Arizona, and from southern Colorado to eastern New Mexico. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level disturbance moving south-southeast across WY/CO to the east of a mid-level ridge located over the Interior West. A mid-level shortwave trough will move northward along the Pacific Northwest coast into British Columbia by tonight. Farther east, a mid-level trough/low centered over the lower MO/mid MS Valleys will meander slowly eastward. ...Sangre de Cristos and adjacent escarpment/plains... Scattered orographically favored thunderstorm development is forecast by early to mid afternoon across the mountains ahead of the aforementioned weak upper disturbance. A seasonably moist airmass (reference 12 UTC Albuquerque raob data) is in place across the region with considerable cloud breaks and partly sunny skies noted in visible-satellite imagery. Strong heating will foster upwards of 500-1250 J/kg MLCAPE by peak heating. Modest deep-layer shear will limit overall convective organization potential, but the stronger multicells (becoming numerous in coverage) will likely be capable of an isolated hail/wind risk through the early evening before this activity dissipates. ...AZ... A weak PV anomaly was noted in upper-layer water-vapor imagery this morning over northern AZ. This upper feature may aid in storm development near the Mogollon Rim later this afternoon with scattered thunderstorms forecast. A hot and a deeply mixed sub-cloud layer in the lower desert will likely support some risk for severe gusts via evaporatively cooled downbursts as this activity slowly pushes southward late this afternoon through the evening. Isolated to widely scattered severe gusts (60-75 mph) are possible with the stronger cores and outflow surges. ...Central/eastern Oregon into northwest NV... Model guidance indicates scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop later this afternoon on the southeast periphery of the mid-level shortwave trough glancing the region. Inverted-V profiles per forecast soundings suggest gusty winds may accompany the stronger downdrafts. The overall severe risk appears too limited in time/space to include a 5-percent severe wind highlight. ..Smith/Jirak.. 07/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA...AND FROM SOUTHERN COLORADO TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into the evening across parts of central and southern Arizona, and from southern Colorado to eastern New Mexico. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level disturbance moving south-southeast across WY/CO to the east of a mid-level ridge located over the Interior West. A mid-level shortwave trough will move northward along the Pacific Northwest coast into British Columbia by tonight. Farther east, a mid-level trough/low centered over the lower MO/mid MS Valleys will meander slowly eastward. ...Sangre de Cristos and adjacent escarpment/plains... Scattered orographically favored thunderstorm development is forecast by early to mid afternoon across the mountains ahead of the aforementioned weak upper disturbance. A seasonably moist airmass (reference 12 UTC Albuquerque raob data) is in place across the region with considerable cloud breaks and partly sunny skies noted in visible-satellite imagery. Strong heating will foster upwards of 500-1250 J/kg MLCAPE by peak heating. Modest deep-layer shear will limit overall convective organization potential, but the stronger multicells (becoming numerous in coverage) will likely be capable of an isolated hail/wind risk through the early evening before this activity dissipates. ...AZ... A weak PV anomaly was noted in upper-layer water-vapor imagery this morning over northern AZ. This upper feature may aid in storm development near the Mogollon Rim later this afternoon with scattered thunderstorms forecast. A hot and a deeply mixed sub-cloud layer in the lower desert will likely support some risk for severe gusts via evaporatively cooled downbursts as this activity slowly pushes southward late this afternoon through the evening. Isolated to widely scattered severe gusts (60-75 mph) are possible with the stronger cores and outflow surges. ...Central/eastern Oregon into northwest NV... Model guidance indicates scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop later this afternoon on the southeast periphery of the mid-level shortwave trough glancing the region. Inverted-V profiles per forecast soundings suggest gusty winds may accompany the stronger downdrafts. The overall severe risk appears too limited in time/space to include a 5-percent severe wind highlight. ..Smith/Jirak.. 07/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA...AND FROM SOUTHERN COLORADO TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into the evening across parts of central and southern Arizona, and from southern Colorado to eastern New Mexico. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level disturbance moving south-southeast across WY/CO to the east of a mid-level ridge located over the Interior West. A mid-level shortwave trough will move northward along the Pacific Northwest coast into British Columbia by tonight. Farther east, a mid-level trough/low centered over the lower MO/mid MS Valleys will meander slowly eastward. ...Sangre de Cristos and adjacent escarpment/plains... Scattered orographically favored thunderstorm development is forecast by early to mid afternoon across the mountains ahead of the aforementioned weak upper disturbance. A seasonably moist airmass (reference 12 UTC Albuquerque raob data) is in place across the region with considerable cloud breaks and partly sunny skies noted in visible-satellite imagery. Strong heating will foster upwards of 500-1250 J/kg MLCAPE by peak heating. Modest deep-layer shear will limit overall convective organization potential, but the stronger multicells (becoming numerous in coverage) will likely be capable of an isolated hail/wind risk through the early evening before this activity dissipates. ...AZ... A weak PV anomaly was noted in upper-layer water-vapor imagery this morning over northern AZ. This upper feature may aid in storm development near the Mogollon Rim later this afternoon with scattered thunderstorms forecast. A hot and a deeply mixed sub-cloud layer in the lower desert will likely support some risk for severe gusts via evaporatively cooled downbursts as this activity slowly pushes southward late this afternoon through the evening. Isolated to widely scattered severe gusts (60-75 mph) are possible with the stronger cores and outflow surges. ...Central/eastern Oregon into northwest NV... Model guidance indicates scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop later this afternoon on the southeast periphery of the mid-level shortwave trough glancing the region. Inverted-V profiles per forecast soundings suggest gusty winds may accompany the stronger downdrafts. The overall severe risk appears too limited in time/space to include a 5-percent severe wind highlight. ..Smith/Jirak.. 07/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA...AND FROM SOUTHERN COLORADO TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into the evening across parts of central and southern Arizona, and from southern Colorado to eastern New Mexico. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level disturbance moving south-southeast across WY/CO to the east of a mid-level ridge located over the Interior West. A mid-level shortwave trough will move northward along the Pacific Northwest coast into British Columbia by tonight. Farther east, a mid-level trough/low centered over the lower MO/mid MS Valleys will meander slowly eastward. ...Sangre de Cristos and adjacent escarpment/plains... Scattered orographically favored thunderstorm development is forecast by early to mid afternoon across the mountains ahead of the aforementioned weak upper disturbance. A seasonably moist airmass (reference 12 UTC Albuquerque raob data) is in place across the region with considerable cloud breaks and partly sunny skies noted in visible-satellite imagery. Strong heating will foster upwards of 500-1250 J/kg MLCAPE by peak heating. Modest deep-layer shear will limit overall convective organization potential, but the stronger multicells (becoming numerous in coverage) will likely be capable of an isolated hail/wind risk through the early evening before this activity dissipates. ...AZ... A weak PV anomaly was noted in upper-layer water-vapor imagery this morning over northern AZ. This upper feature may aid in storm development near the Mogollon Rim later this afternoon with scattered thunderstorms forecast. A hot and a deeply mixed sub-cloud layer in the lower desert will likely support some risk for severe gusts via evaporatively cooled downbursts as this activity slowly pushes southward late this afternoon through the evening. Isolated to widely scattered severe gusts (60-75 mph) are possible with the stronger cores and outflow surges. ...Central/eastern Oregon into northwest NV... Model guidance indicates scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop later this afternoon on the southeast periphery of the mid-level shortwave trough glancing the region. Inverted-V profiles per forecast soundings suggest gusty winds may accompany the stronger downdrafts. The overall severe risk appears too limited in time/space to include a 5-percent severe wind highlight. ..Smith/Jirak.. 07/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA...AND FROM SOUTHERN COLORADO TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into the evening across parts of central and southern Arizona, and from southern Colorado to eastern New Mexico. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level disturbance moving south-southeast across WY/CO to the east of a mid-level ridge located over the Interior West. A mid-level shortwave trough will move northward along the Pacific Northwest coast into British Columbia by tonight. Farther east, a mid-level trough/low centered over the lower MO/mid MS Valleys will meander slowly eastward. ...Sangre de Cristos and adjacent escarpment/plains... Scattered orographically favored thunderstorm development is forecast by early to mid afternoon across the mountains ahead of the aforementioned weak upper disturbance. A seasonably moist airmass (reference 12 UTC Albuquerque raob data) is in place across the region with considerable cloud breaks and partly sunny skies noted in visible-satellite imagery. Strong heating will foster upwards of 500-1250 J/kg MLCAPE by peak heating. Modest deep-layer shear will limit overall convective organization potential, but the stronger multicells (becoming numerous in coverage) will likely be capable of an isolated hail/wind risk through the early evening before this activity dissipates. ...AZ... A weak PV anomaly was noted in upper-layer water-vapor imagery this morning over northern AZ. This upper feature may aid in storm development near the Mogollon Rim later this afternoon with scattered thunderstorms forecast. A hot and a deeply mixed sub-cloud layer in the lower desert will likely support some risk for severe gusts via evaporatively cooled downbursts as this activity slowly pushes southward late this afternoon through the evening. Isolated to widely scattered severe gusts (60-75 mph) are possible with the stronger cores and outflow surges. ...Central/eastern Oregon into northwest NV... Model guidance indicates scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop later this afternoon on the southeast periphery of the mid-level shortwave trough glancing the region. Inverted-V profiles per forecast soundings suggest gusty winds may accompany the stronger downdrafts. The overall severe risk appears too limited in time/space to include a 5-percent severe wind highlight. ..Smith/Jirak.. 07/21/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT BASIN INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OREGON... Behind the mid-level shortwave trough now over northwest Oregon/western Washington, thunderstorm potential has decreased in parts of southwestern Oregon. The isolated dry thunder area has been modified to account for this decreased potential. Elsewhere, the outlook remains unchanged as isolated to scattered thunderstorms remain possible late this morning into this afternoon. ..Wendt.. 07/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak upper trough moving along the western periphery of the stout ridge centered west of the Rockies will bring increasing mid-level moisture onshore through today. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are possible, along with hot, dry and unstable conditions, from the northern Great Basin through much of the Pacific Northwest. An outbreak of dry lightning is probable over receptive fuels across the interior Northwest today and tonight. ...Northern Great Basin and Northwest... Isolated high-based thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing at the start of the period underneath the northward-moving upper trough along the coastal ranges of OR and southern WA. While gradually decreasing in coverage through the morning, a few storms may persist with a risk for lightning strikes as they move north into WA along and west of the Cascade Crest. Behind the initial round of storms, weak height falls and mid-level moisture advection will continue through the day across parts of northern CA/NV and south-central OR. Weak broad-scale ascent, in combination with diurnal heating and orographic lift, will support scattered thunderstorm development from mid afternoon through the evening hours. A combination of wet (displaced farther south), but mostly dry thunderstorms appear likely with weak buoyancy atop deep mixed-layers and moderate storm motions. Given the low precipitation efficiency and faster storm motions, wetting rainfall potential appears quite low. A significant outbreak of dry lightning is probable within very dry fuel beds across parts of the northern Great Basin and interior Northwest. Thunderstorms may continue overnight expanding northward along the northern Cascades and into the Columbia Basin. Some risk for isolated lightning strikes may extend into Day2/Monday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT BASIN INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OREGON... Behind the mid-level shortwave trough now over northwest Oregon/western Washington, thunderstorm potential has decreased in parts of southwestern Oregon. The isolated dry thunder area has been modified to account for this decreased potential. Elsewhere, the outlook remains unchanged as isolated to scattered thunderstorms remain possible late this morning into this afternoon. ..Wendt.. 07/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak upper trough moving along the western periphery of the stout ridge centered west of the Rockies will bring increasing mid-level moisture onshore through today. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are possible, along with hot, dry and unstable conditions, from the northern Great Basin through much of the Pacific Northwest. An outbreak of dry lightning is probable over receptive fuels across the interior Northwest today and tonight. ...Northern Great Basin and Northwest... Isolated high-based thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing at the start of the period underneath the northward-moving upper trough along the coastal ranges of OR and southern WA. While gradually decreasing in coverage through the morning, a few storms may persist with a risk for lightning strikes as they move north into WA along and west of the Cascade Crest. Behind the initial round of storms, weak height falls and mid-level moisture advection will continue through the day across parts of northern CA/NV and south-central OR. Weak broad-scale ascent, in combination with diurnal heating and orographic lift, will support scattered thunderstorm development from mid afternoon through the evening hours. A combination of wet (displaced farther south), but mostly dry thunderstorms appear likely with weak buoyancy atop deep mixed-layers and moderate storm motions. Given the low precipitation efficiency and faster storm motions, wetting rainfall potential appears quite low. A significant outbreak of dry lightning is probable within very dry fuel beds across parts of the northern Great Basin and interior Northwest. Thunderstorms may continue overnight expanding northward along the northern Cascades and into the Columbia Basin. Some risk for isolated lightning strikes may extend into Day2/Monday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT BASIN INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OREGON... Behind the mid-level shortwave trough now over northwest Oregon/western Washington, thunderstorm potential has decreased in parts of southwestern Oregon. The isolated dry thunder area has been modified to account for this decreased potential. Elsewhere, the outlook remains unchanged as isolated to scattered thunderstorms remain possible late this morning into this afternoon. ..Wendt.. 07/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak upper trough moving along the western periphery of the stout ridge centered west of the Rockies will bring increasing mid-level moisture onshore through today. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are possible, along with hot, dry and unstable conditions, from the northern Great Basin through much of the Pacific Northwest. An outbreak of dry lightning is probable over receptive fuels across the interior Northwest today and tonight. ...Northern Great Basin and Northwest... Isolated high-based thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing at the start of the period underneath the northward-moving upper trough along the coastal ranges of OR and southern WA. While gradually decreasing in coverage through the morning, a few storms may persist with a risk for lightning strikes as they move north into WA along and west of the Cascade Crest. Behind the initial round of storms, weak height falls and mid-level moisture advection will continue through the day across parts of northern CA/NV and south-central OR. Weak broad-scale ascent, in combination with diurnal heating and orographic lift, will support scattered thunderstorm development from mid afternoon through the evening hours. A combination of wet (displaced farther south), but mostly dry thunderstorms appear likely with weak buoyancy atop deep mixed-layers and moderate storm motions. Given the low precipitation efficiency and faster storm motions, wetting rainfall potential appears quite low. A significant outbreak of dry lightning is probable within very dry fuel beds across parts of the northern Great Basin and interior Northwest. Thunderstorms may continue overnight expanding northward along the northern Cascades and into the Columbia Basin. Some risk for isolated lightning strikes may extend into Day2/Monday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT BASIN INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OREGON... Behind the mid-level shortwave trough now over northwest Oregon/western Washington, thunderstorm potential has decreased in parts of southwestern Oregon. The isolated dry thunder area has been modified to account for this decreased potential. Elsewhere, the outlook remains unchanged as isolated to scattered thunderstorms remain possible late this morning into this afternoon. ..Wendt.. 07/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak upper trough moving along the western periphery of the stout ridge centered west of the Rockies will bring increasing mid-level moisture onshore through today. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are possible, along with hot, dry and unstable conditions, from the northern Great Basin through much of the Pacific Northwest. An outbreak of dry lightning is probable over receptive fuels across the interior Northwest today and tonight. ...Northern Great Basin and Northwest... Isolated high-based thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing at the start of the period underneath the northward-moving upper trough along the coastal ranges of OR and southern WA. While gradually decreasing in coverage through the morning, a few storms may persist with a risk for lightning strikes as they move north into WA along and west of the Cascade Crest. Behind the initial round of storms, weak height falls and mid-level moisture advection will continue through the day across parts of northern CA/NV and south-central OR. Weak broad-scale ascent, in combination with diurnal heating and orographic lift, will support scattered thunderstorm development from mid afternoon through the evening hours. A combination of wet (displaced farther south), but mostly dry thunderstorms appear likely with weak buoyancy atop deep mixed-layers and moderate storm motions. Given the low precipitation efficiency and faster storm motions, wetting rainfall potential appears quite low. A significant outbreak of dry lightning is probable within very dry fuel beds across parts of the northern Great Basin and interior Northwest. Thunderstorms may continue overnight expanding northward along the northern Cascades and into the Columbia Basin. Some risk for isolated lightning strikes may extend into Day2/Monday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT BASIN INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OREGON... Behind the mid-level shortwave trough now over northwest Oregon/western Washington, thunderstorm potential has decreased in parts of southwestern Oregon. The isolated dry thunder area has been modified to account for this decreased potential. Elsewhere, the outlook remains unchanged as isolated to scattered thunderstorms remain possible late this morning into this afternoon. ..Wendt.. 07/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak upper trough moving along the western periphery of the stout ridge centered west of the Rockies will bring increasing mid-level moisture onshore through today. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are possible, along with hot, dry and unstable conditions, from the northern Great Basin through much of the Pacific Northwest. An outbreak of dry lightning is probable over receptive fuels across the interior Northwest today and tonight. ...Northern Great Basin and Northwest... Isolated high-based thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing at the start of the period underneath the northward-moving upper trough along the coastal ranges of OR and southern WA. While gradually decreasing in coverage through the morning, a few storms may persist with a risk for lightning strikes as they move north into WA along and west of the Cascade Crest. Behind the initial round of storms, weak height falls and mid-level moisture advection will continue through the day across parts of northern CA/NV and south-central OR. Weak broad-scale ascent, in combination with diurnal heating and orographic lift, will support scattered thunderstorm development from mid afternoon through the evening hours. A combination of wet (displaced farther south), but mostly dry thunderstorms appear likely with weak buoyancy atop deep mixed-layers and moderate storm motions. Given the low precipitation efficiency and faster storm motions, wetting rainfall potential appears quite low. A significant outbreak of dry lightning is probable within very dry fuel beds across parts of the northern Great Basin and interior Northwest. Thunderstorms may continue overnight expanding northward along the northern Cascades and into the Columbia Basin. Some risk for isolated lightning strikes may extend into Day2/Monday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT BASIN INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OREGON... Behind the mid-level shortwave trough now over northwest Oregon/western Washington, thunderstorm potential has decreased in parts of southwestern Oregon. The isolated dry thunder area has been modified to account for this decreased potential. Elsewhere, the outlook remains unchanged as isolated to scattered thunderstorms remain possible late this morning into this afternoon. ..Wendt.. 07/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak upper trough moving along the western periphery of the stout ridge centered west of the Rockies will bring increasing mid-level moisture onshore through today. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are possible, along with hot, dry and unstable conditions, from the northern Great Basin through much of the Pacific Northwest. An outbreak of dry lightning is probable over receptive fuels across the interior Northwest today and tonight. ...Northern Great Basin and Northwest... Isolated high-based thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing at the start of the period underneath the northward-moving upper trough along the coastal ranges of OR and southern WA. While gradually decreasing in coverage through the morning, a few storms may persist with a risk for lightning strikes as they move north into WA along and west of the Cascade Crest. Behind the initial round of storms, weak height falls and mid-level moisture advection will continue through the day across parts of northern CA/NV and south-central OR. Weak broad-scale ascent, in combination with diurnal heating and orographic lift, will support scattered thunderstorm development from mid afternoon through the evening hours. A combination of wet (displaced farther south), but mostly dry thunderstorms appear likely with weak buoyancy atop deep mixed-layers and moderate storm motions. Given the low precipitation efficiency and faster storm motions, wetting rainfall potential appears quite low. A significant outbreak of dry lightning is probable within very dry fuel beds across parts of the northern Great Basin and interior Northwest. Thunderstorms may continue overnight expanding northward along the northern Cascades and into the Columbia Basin. Some risk for isolated lightning strikes may extend into Day2/Monday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT BASIN INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OREGON... Behind the mid-level shortwave trough now over northwest Oregon/western Washington, thunderstorm potential has decreased in parts of southwestern Oregon. The isolated dry thunder area has been modified to account for this decreased potential. Elsewhere, the outlook remains unchanged as isolated to scattered thunderstorms remain possible late this morning into this afternoon. ..Wendt.. 07/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak upper trough moving along the western periphery of the stout ridge centered west of the Rockies will bring increasing mid-level moisture onshore through today. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are possible, along with hot, dry and unstable conditions, from the northern Great Basin through much of the Pacific Northwest. An outbreak of dry lightning is probable over receptive fuels across the interior Northwest today and tonight. ...Northern Great Basin and Northwest... Isolated high-based thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing at the start of the period underneath the northward-moving upper trough along the coastal ranges of OR and southern WA. While gradually decreasing in coverage through the morning, a few storms may persist with a risk for lightning strikes as they move north into WA along and west of the Cascade Crest. Behind the initial round of storms, weak height falls and mid-level moisture advection will continue through the day across parts of northern CA/NV and south-central OR. Weak broad-scale ascent, in combination with diurnal heating and orographic lift, will support scattered thunderstorm development from mid afternoon through the evening hours. A combination of wet (displaced farther south), but mostly dry thunderstorms appear likely with weak buoyancy atop deep mixed-layers and moderate storm motions. Given the low precipitation efficiency and faster storm motions, wetting rainfall potential appears quite low. A significant outbreak of dry lightning is probable within very dry fuel beds across parts of the northern Great Basin and interior Northwest. Thunderstorms may continue overnight expanding northward along the northern Cascades and into the Columbia Basin. Some risk for isolated lightning strikes may extend into Day2/Monday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more