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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE MS/OH/TN VALLEYS...AND ALSO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible today into tonight across a broad area from eastern Nebraska and Iowa into parts of the Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys. There is some potential for a swath of severe/damaging winds within this corridor. A few severe storms are also possible across parts of the northern Plains. ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will remain in place across the southern Great Plains today. North of the ridge, multiple shortwave troughs and embedded MCVs will move eastward from the northern Rockies/Plains into the upper Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Northeast. The surface pattern will be complicated by the potential influence of overnight/morning convection, but in general, a broad surface low will remain in place across the central Plains, with a surface trough extending northward across the western Dakotas. Very rich low-level moisture will remain in place from the central Plains eastward into parts of the MS/OH Valleys. Farther east, a surface low is expected to move across the lower Great Lakes vicinity, as a trailing surface trough moves through parts of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic. ...Central Plains into parts of the upper Midwest...mid/upper MS Valley and OH/TN Valleys... Considerable uncertainty remains regarding storm evolution later today, but there is some potential for a swath of severe/damaging gusts from parts of NE/IA into parts of the MS/OH Valleys. At least one remnant or ongoing MCS may be ongoing across parts of the upper Midwest later this morning. Strong destabilization will be possible within a very moist environment from NE/IA into the mid MS Valley, though the effects of morning outflow on the instability reservoir remain somewhat uncertain. With modestly favorable deep-layer shear in place, a broad area will have conditional potential for organized severe storms. If the cold pool from an ongoing or developing MCS can be maintained or intensify later this morning into the afternoon (as suggested by some HREF members and recent HRRR runs), there is potential for a rather long-lived MCS to produce a swath of damaging wind gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph) as it moves southeastward. A significant wind (hatched) area has been added to highlight this potential, and greater unconditional wind probabilities will be needed if confidence in this scenario increases. Even if a dominant MCS does not develop, more localized severe storm development will be possible by late afternoon, especially near any remnant outflow boundaries. Any discrete convection could evolve into a supercells with a conditional risk of all severe hazards, though a tendency toward storm clustering is expected with time, with some guidance suggesting multiple potentially severe storm clusters emanating out of the central Plains. Father southeast, some intensification of remnant overnight convection across the Ohio Valley could occur across parts of TN into the Southeast, within a modest northwesterly flow regime. Isolated to scattered damaging wind should be the primary threat. Any intense MCS that develops upstream could eventually approach this region from the northwest, potentially posing another round of damaging-wind potential. ...Northern Plains... Weak height falls amid moderate to strong instability may lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development along a surface trough/dryline across the Dakotas this afternoon. Moderate westerlies should support moderate deep-layer vertical shear around 30 to 35 kt from 0-6 km, sufficient a few organized storms capable of both large hail and damaging gusts. ...Northern NY into northern New England... Moderate buoyancy may develop this afternoon from northern NY into northern New England. While storm coverage remains somewhat uncertain, deep-layer shear and relatively cool temperatures aloft could support a couple modestly organized storms capable of locally damaging wind, and possibly some hail. ...Mid Atlantic vicinity... A mid/upper-level trough and possibly an MCV will move across the Mid Atlantic vicinity later today. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by afternoon from northern VA into parts of PA. While there is some uncertainty regarding the extent of heating and destabilization, a couple stronger cells/clusters may become capable of producing isolated damaging wind. ..Dean/Weinman.. 07/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE MS/OH/TN VALLEYS...AND ALSO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible today into tonight across a broad area from eastern Nebraska and Iowa into parts of the Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys. There is some potential for a swath of severe/damaging winds within this corridor. A few severe storms are also possible across parts of the northern Plains. ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will remain in place across the southern Great Plains today. North of the ridge, multiple shortwave troughs and embedded MCVs will move eastward from the northern Rockies/Plains into the upper Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Northeast. The surface pattern will be complicated by the potential influence of overnight/morning convection, but in general, a broad surface low will remain in place across the central Plains, with a surface trough extending northward across the western Dakotas. Very rich low-level moisture will remain in place from the central Plains eastward into parts of the MS/OH Valleys. Farther east, a surface low is expected to move across the lower Great Lakes vicinity, as a trailing surface trough moves through parts of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic. ...Central Plains into parts of the upper Midwest...mid/upper MS Valley and OH/TN Valleys... Considerable uncertainty remains regarding storm evolution later today, but there is some potential for a swath of severe/damaging gusts from parts of NE/IA into parts of the MS/OH Valleys. At least one remnant or ongoing MCS may be ongoing across parts of the upper Midwest later this morning. Strong destabilization will be possible within a very moist environment from NE/IA into the mid MS Valley, though the effects of morning outflow on the instability reservoir remain somewhat uncertain. With modestly favorable deep-layer shear in place, a broad area will have conditional potential for organized severe storms. If the cold pool from an ongoing or developing MCS can be maintained or intensify later this morning into the afternoon (as suggested by some HREF members and recent HRRR runs), there is potential for a rather long-lived MCS to produce a swath of damaging wind gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph) as it moves southeastward. A significant wind (hatched) area has been added to highlight this potential, and greater unconditional wind probabilities will be needed if confidence in this scenario increases. Even if a dominant MCS does not develop, more localized severe storm development will be possible by late afternoon, especially near any remnant outflow boundaries. Any discrete convection could evolve into a supercells with a conditional risk of all severe hazards, though a tendency toward storm clustering is expected with time, with some guidance suggesting multiple potentially severe storm clusters emanating out of the central Plains. Father southeast, some intensification of remnant overnight convection across the Ohio Valley could occur across parts of TN into the Southeast, within a modest northwesterly flow regime. Isolated to scattered damaging wind should be the primary threat. Any intense MCS that develops upstream could eventually approach this region from the northwest, potentially posing another round of damaging-wind potential. ...Northern Plains... Weak height falls amid moderate to strong instability may lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development along a surface trough/dryline across the Dakotas this afternoon. Moderate westerlies should support moderate deep-layer vertical shear around 30 to 35 kt from 0-6 km, sufficient a few organized storms capable of both large hail and damaging gusts. ...Northern NY into northern New England... Moderate buoyancy may develop this afternoon from northern NY into northern New England. While storm coverage remains somewhat uncertain, deep-layer shear and relatively cool temperatures aloft could support a couple modestly organized storms capable of locally damaging wind, and possibly some hail. ...Mid Atlantic vicinity... A mid/upper-level trough and possibly an MCV will move across the Mid Atlantic vicinity later today. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by afternoon from northern VA into parts of PA. While there is some uncertainty regarding the extent of heating and destabilization, a couple stronger cells/clusters may become capable of producing isolated damaging wind. ..Dean/Weinman.. 07/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE MS/OH/TN VALLEYS...AND ALSO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible today into tonight across a broad area from eastern Nebraska and Iowa into parts of the Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys. There is some potential for a swath of severe/damaging winds within this corridor. A few severe storms are also possible across parts of the northern Plains. ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will remain in place across the southern Great Plains today. North of the ridge, multiple shortwave troughs and embedded MCVs will move eastward from the northern Rockies/Plains into the upper Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Northeast. The surface pattern will be complicated by the potential influence of overnight/morning convection, but in general, a broad surface low will remain in place across the central Plains, with a surface trough extending northward across the western Dakotas. Very rich low-level moisture will remain in place from the central Plains eastward into parts of the MS/OH Valleys. Farther east, a surface low is expected to move across the lower Great Lakes vicinity, as a trailing surface trough moves through parts of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic. ...Central Plains into parts of the upper Midwest...mid/upper MS Valley and OH/TN Valleys... Considerable uncertainty remains regarding storm evolution later today, but there is some potential for a swath of severe/damaging gusts from parts of NE/IA into parts of the MS/OH Valleys. At least one remnant or ongoing MCS may be ongoing across parts of the upper Midwest later this morning. Strong destabilization will be possible within a very moist environment from NE/IA into the mid MS Valley, though the effects of morning outflow on the instability reservoir remain somewhat uncertain. With modestly favorable deep-layer shear in place, a broad area will have conditional potential for organized severe storms. If the cold pool from an ongoing or developing MCS can be maintained or intensify later this morning into the afternoon (as suggested by some HREF members and recent HRRR runs), there is potential for a rather long-lived MCS to produce a swath of damaging wind gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph) as it moves southeastward. A significant wind (hatched) area has been added to highlight this potential, and greater unconditional wind probabilities will be needed if confidence in this scenario increases. Even if a dominant MCS does not develop, more localized severe storm development will be possible by late afternoon, especially near any remnant outflow boundaries. Any discrete convection could evolve into a supercells with a conditional risk of all severe hazards, though a tendency toward storm clustering is expected with time, with some guidance suggesting multiple potentially severe storm clusters emanating out of the central Plains. Father southeast, some intensification of remnant overnight convection across the Ohio Valley could occur across parts of TN into the Southeast, within a modest northwesterly flow regime. Isolated to scattered damaging wind should be the primary threat. Any intense MCS that develops upstream could eventually approach this region from the northwest, potentially posing another round of damaging-wind potential. ...Northern Plains... Weak height falls amid moderate to strong instability may lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development along a surface trough/dryline across the Dakotas this afternoon. Moderate westerlies should support moderate deep-layer vertical shear around 30 to 35 kt from 0-6 km, sufficient a few organized storms capable of both large hail and damaging gusts. ...Northern NY into northern New England... Moderate buoyancy may develop this afternoon from northern NY into northern New England. While storm coverage remains somewhat uncertain, deep-layer shear and relatively cool temperatures aloft could support a couple modestly organized storms capable of locally damaging wind, and possibly some hail. ...Mid Atlantic vicinity... A mid/upper-level trough and possibly an MCV will move across the Mid Atlantic vicinity later today. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by afternoon from northern VA into parts of PA. While there is some uncertainty regarding the extent of heating and destabilization, a couple stronger cells/clusters may become capable of producing isolated damaging wind. ..Dean/Weinman.. 07/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE MS/OH/TN VALLEYS...AND ALSO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible today into tonight across a broad area from eastern Nebraska and Iowa into parts of the Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys. There is some potential for a swath of severe/damaging winds within this corridor. A few severe storms are also possible across parts of the northern Plains. ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will remain in place across the southern Great Plains today. North of the ridge, multiple shortwave troughs and embedded MCVs will move eastward from the northern Rockies/Plains into the upper Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Northeast. The surface pattern will be complicated by the potential influence of overnight/morning convection, but in general, a broad surface low will remain in place across the central Plains, with a surface trough extending northward across the western Dakotas. Very rich low-level moisture will remain in place from the central Plains eastward into parts of the MS/OH Valleys. Farther east, a surface low is expected to move across the lower Great Lakes vicinity, as a trailing surface trough moves through parts of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic. ...Central Plains into parts of the upper Midwest...mid/upper MS Valley and OH/TN Valleys... Considerable uncertainty remains regarding storm evolution later today, but there is some potential for a swath of severe/damaging gusts from parts of NE/IA into parts of the MS/OH Valleys. At least one remnant or ongoing MCS may be ongoing across parts of the upper Midwest later this morning. Strong destabilization will be possible within a very moist environment from NE/IA into the mid MS Valley, though the effects of morning outflow on the instability reservoir remain somewhat uncertain. With modestly favorable deep-layer shear in place, a broad area will have conditional potential for organized severe storms. If the cold pool from an ongoing or developing MCS can be maintained or intensify later this morning into the afternoon (as suggested by some HREF members and recent HRRR runs), there is potential for a rather long-lived MCS to produce a swath of damaging wind gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph) as it moves southeastward. A significant wind (hatched) area has been added to highlight this potential, and greater unconditional wind probabilities will be needed if confidence in this scenario increases. Even if a dominant MCS does not develop, more localized severe storm development will be possible by late afternoon, especially near any remnant outflow boundaries. Any discrete convection could evolve into a supercells with a conditional risk of all severe hazards, though a tendency toward storm clustering is expected with time, with some guidance suggesting multiple potentially severe storm clusters emanating out of the central Plains. Father southeast, some intensification of remnant overnight convection across the Ohio Valley could occur across parts of TN into the Southeast, within a modest northwesterly flow regime. Isolated to scattered damaging wind should be the primary threat. Any intense MCS that develops upstream could eventually approach this region from the northwest, potentially posing another round of damaging-wind potential. ...Northern Plains... Weak height falls amid moderate to strong instability may lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development along a surface trough/dryline across the Dakotas this afternoon. Moderate westerlies should support moderate deep-layer vertical shear around 30 to 35 kt from 0-6 km, sufficient a few organized storms capable of both large hail and damaging gusts. ...Northern NY into northern New England... Moderate buoyancy may develop this afternoon from northern NY into northern New England. While storm coverage remains somewhat uncertain, deep-layer shear and relatively cool temperatures aloft could support a couple modestly organized storms capable of locally damaging wind, and possibly some hail. ...Mid Atlantic vicinity... A mid/upper-level trough and possibly an MCV will move across the Mid Atlantic vicinity later today. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by afternoon from northern VA into parts of PA. While there is some uncertainty regarding the extent of heating and destabilization, a couple stronger cells/clusters may become capable of producing isolated damaging wind. ..Dean/Weinman.. 07/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE MS/OH/TN VALLEYS...AND ALSO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible today into tonight across a broad area from eastern Nebraska and Iowa into parts of the Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys. There is some potential for a swath of severe/damaging winds within this corridor. A few severe storms are also possible across parts of the northern Plains. ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will remain in place across the southern Great Plains today. North of the ridge, multiple shortwave troughs and embedded MCVs will move eastward from the northern Rockies/Plains into the upper Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Northeast. The surface pattern will be complicated by the potential influence of overnight/morning convection, but in general, a broad surface low will remain in place across the central Plains, with a surface trough extending northward across the western Dakotas. Very rich low-level moisture will remain in place from the central Plains eastward into parts of the MS/OH Valleys. Farther east, a surface low is expected to move across the lower Great Lakes vicinity, as a trailing surface trough moves through parts of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic. ...Central Plains into parts of the upper Midwest...mid/upper MS Valley and OH/TN Valleys... Considerable uncertainty remains regarding storm evolution later today, but there is some potential for a swath of severe/damaging gusts from parts of NE/IA into parts of the MS/OH Valleys. At least one remnant or ongoing MCS may be ongoing across parts of the upper Midwest later this morning. Strong destabilization will be possible within a very moist environment from NE/IA into the mid MS Valley, though the effects of morning outflow on the instability reservoir remain somewhat uncertain. With modestly favorable deep-layer shear in place, a broad area will have conditional potential for organized severe storms. If the cold pool from an ongoing or developing MCS can be maintained or intensify later this morning into the afternoon (as suggested by some HREF members and recent HRRR runs), there is potential for a rather long-lived MCS to produce a swath of damaging wind gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph) as it moves southeastward. A significant wind (hatched) area has been added to highlight this potential, and greater unconditional wind probabilities will be needed if confidence in this scenario increases. Even if a dominant MCS does not develop, more localized severe storm development will be possible by late afternoon, especially near any remnant outflow boundaries. Any discrete convection could evolve into a supercells with a conditional risk of all severe hazards, though a tendency toward storm clustering is expected with time, with some guidance suggesting multiple potentially severe storm clusters emanating out of the central Plains. Father southeast, some intensification of remnant overnight convection across the Ohio Valley could occur across parts of TN into the Southeast, within a modest northwesterly flow regime. Isolated to scattered damaging wind should be the primary threat. Any intense MCS that develops upstream could eventually approach this region from the northwest, potentially posing another round of damaging-wind potential. ...Northern Plains... Weak height falls amid moderate to strong instability may lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development along a surface trough/dryline across the Dakotas this afternoon. Moderate westerlies should support moderate deep-layer vertical shear around 30 to 35 kt from 0-6 km, sufficient a few organized storms capable of both large hail and damaging gusts. ...Northern NY into northern New England... Moderate buoyancy may develop this afternoon from northern NY into northern New England. While storm coverage remains somewhat uncertain, deep-layer shear and relatively cool temperatures aloft could support a couple modestly organized storms capable of locally damaging wind, and possibly some hail. ...Mid Atlantic vicinity... A mid/upper-level trough and possibly an MCV will move across the Mid Atlantic vicinity later today. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by afternoon from northern VA into parts of PA. While there is some uncertainty regarding the extent of heating and destabilization, a couple stronger cells/clusters may become capable of producing isolated damaging wind. ..Dean/Weinman.. 07/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE MS/OH/TN VALLEYS...AND ALSO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible today into tonight across a broad area from eastern Nebraska and Iowa into parts of the Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys. There is some potential for a swath of severe/damaging winds within this corridor. A few severe storms are also possible across parts of the northern Plains. ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will remain in place across the southern Great Plains today. North of the ridge, multiple shortwave troughs and embedded MCVs will move eastward from the northern Rockies/Plains into the upper Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Northeast. The surface pattern will be complicated by the potential influence of overnight/morning convection, but in general, a broad surface low will remain in place across the central Plains, with a surface trough extending northward across the western Dakotas. Very rich low-level moisture will remain in place from the central Plains eastward into parts of the MS/OH Valleys. Farther east, a surface low is expected to move across the lower Great Lakes vicinity, as a trailing surface trough moves through parts of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic. ...Central Plains into parts of the upper Midwest...mid/upper MS Valley and OH/TN Valleys... Considerable uncertainty remains regarding storm evolution later today, but there is some potential for a swath of severe/damaging gusts from parts of NE/IA into parts of the MS/OH Valleys. At least one remnant or ongoing MCS may be ongoing across parts of the upper Midwest later this morning. Strong destabilization will be possible within a very moist environment from NE/IA into the mid MS Valley, though the effects of morning outflow on the instability reservoir remain somewhat uncertain. With modestly favorable deep-layer shear in place, a broad area will have conditional potential for organized severe storms. If the cold pool from an ongoing or developing MCS can be maintained or intensify later this morning into the afternoon (as suggested by some HREF members and recent HRRR runs), there is potential for a rather long-lived MCS to produce a swath of damaging wind gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph) as it moves southeastward. A significant wind (hatched) area has been added to highlight this potential, and greater unconditional wind probabilities will be needed if confidence in this scenario increases. Even if a dominant MCS does not develop, more localized severe storm development will be possible by late afternoon, especially near any remnant outflow boundaries. Any discrete convection could evolve into a supercells with a conditional risk of all severe hazards, though a tendency toward storm clustering is expected with time, with some guidance suggesting multiple potentially severe storm clusters emanating out of the central Plains. Father southeast, some intensification of remnant overnight convection across the Ohio Valley could occur across parts of TN into the Southeast, within a modest northwesterly flow regime. Isolated to scattered damaging wind should be the primary threat. Any intense MCS that develops upstream could eventually approach this region from the northwest, potentially posing another round of damaging-wind potential. ...Northern Plains... Weak height falls amid moderate to strong instability may lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development along a surface trough/dryline across the Dakotas this afternoon. Moderate westerlies should support moderate deep-layer vertical shear around 30 to 35 kt from 0-6 km, sufficient a few organized storms capable of both large hail and damaging gusts. ...Northern NY into northern New England... Moderate buoyancy may develop this afternoon from northern NY into northern New England. While storm coverage remains somewhat uncertain, deep-layer shear and relatively cool temperatures aloft could support a couple modestly organized storms capable of locally damaging wind, and possibly some hail. ...Mid Atlantic vicinity... A mid/upper-level trough and possibly an MCV will move across the Mid Atlantic vicinity later today. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by afternoon from northern VA into parts of PA. While there is some uncertainty regarding the extent of heating and destabilization, a couple stronger cells/clusters may become capable of producing isolated damaging wind. ..Dean/Weinman.. 07/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE MS/OH/TN VALLEYS...AND ALSO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible today into tonight across a broad area from eastern Nebraska and Iowa into parts of the Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys. There is some potential for a swath of severe/damaging winds within this corridor. A few severe storms are also possible across parts of the northern Plains. ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will remain in place across the southern Great Plains today. North of the ridge, multiple shortwave troughs and embedded MCVs will move eastward from the northern Rockies/Plains into the upper Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Northeast. The surface pattern will be complicated by the potential influence of overnight/morning convection, but in general, a broad surface low will remain in place across the central Plains, with a surface trough extending northward across the western Dakotas. Very rich low-level moisture will remain in place from the central Plains eastward into parts of the MS/OH Valleys. Farther east, a surface low is expected to move across the lower Great Lakes vicinity, as a trailing surface trough moves through parts of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic. ...Central Plains into parts of the upper Midwest...mid/upper MS Valley and OH/TN Valleys... Considerable uncertainty remains regarding storm evolution later today, but there is some potential for a swath of severe/damaging gusts from parts of NE/IA into parts of the MS/OH Valleys. At least one remnant or ongoing MCS may be ongoing across parts of the upper Midwest later this morning. Strong destabilization will be possible within a very moist environment from NE/IA into the mid MS Valley, though the effects of morning outflow on the instability reservoir remain somewhat uncertain. With modestly favorable deep-layer shear in place, a broad area will have conditional potential for organized severe storms. If the cold pool from an ongoing or developing MCS can be maintained or intensify later this morning into the afternoon (as suggested by some HREF members and recent HRRR runs), there is potential for a rather long-lived MCS to produce a swath of damaging wind gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph) as it moves southeastward. A significant wind (hatched) area has been added to highlight this potential, and greater unconditional wind probabilities will be needed if confidence in this scenario increases. Even if a dominant MCS does not develop, more localized severe storm development will be possible by late afternoon, especially near any remnant outflow boundaries. Any discrete convection could evolve into a supercells with a conditional risk of all severe hazards, though a tendency toward storm clustering is expected with time, with some guidance suggesting multiple potentially severe storm clusters emanating out of the central Plains. Father southeast, some intensification of remnant overnight convection across the Ohio Valley could occur across parts of TN into the Southeast, within a modest northwesterly flow regime. Isolated to scattered damaging wind should be the primary threat. Any intense MCS that develops upstream could eventually approach this region from the northwest, potentially posing another round of damaging-wind potential. ...Northern Plains... Weak height falls amid moderate to strong instability may lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development along a surface trough/dryline across the Dakotas this afternoon. Moderate westerlies should support moderate deep-layer vertical shear around 30 to 35 kt from 0-6 km, sufficient a few organized storms capable of both large hail and damaging gusts. ...Northern NY into northern New England... Moderate buoyancy may develop this afternoon from northern NY into northern New England. While storm coverage remains somewhat uncertain, deep-layer shear and relatively cool temperatures aloft could support a couple modestly organized storms capable of locally damaging wind, and possibly some hail. ...Mid Atlantic vicinity... A mid/upper-level trough and possibly an MCV will move across the Mid Atlantic vicinity later today. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by afternoon from northern VA into parts of PA. While there is some uncertainty regarding the extent of heating and destabilization, a couple stronger cells/clusters may become capable of producing isolated damaging wind. ..Dean/Weinman.. 07/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE MS/OH/TN VALLEYS...AND ALSO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible today into tonight across a broad area from eastern Nebraska and Iowa into parts of the Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys. There is some potential for a swath of severe/damaging winds within this corridor. A few severe storms are also possible across parts of the northern Plains. ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will remain in place across the southern Great Plains today. North of the ridge, multiple shortwave troughs and embedded MCVs will move eastward from the northern Rockies/Plains into the upper Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Northeast. The surface pattern will be complicated by the potential influence of overnight/morning convection, but in general, a broad surface low will remain in place across the central Plains, with a surface trough extending northward across the western Dakotas. Very rich low-level moisture will remain in place from the central Plains eastward into parts of the MS/OH Valleys. Farther east, a surface low is expected to move across the lower Great Lakes vicinity, as a trailing surface trough moves through parts of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic. ...Central Plains into parts of the upper Midwest...mid/upper MS Valley and OH/TN Valleys... Considerable uncertainty remains regarding storm evolution later today, but there is some potential for a swath of severe/damaging gusts from parts of NE/IA into parts of the MS/OH Valleys. At least one remnant or ongoing MCS may be ongoing across parts of the upper Midwest later this morning. Strong destabilization will be possible within a very moist environment from NE/IA into the mid MS Valley, though the effects of morning outflow on the instability reservoir remain somewhat uncertain. With modestly favorable deep-layer shear in place, a broad area will have conditional potential for organized severe storms. If the cold pool from an ongoing or developing MCS can be maintained or intensify later this morning into the afternoon (as suggested by some HREF members and recent HRRR runs), there is potential for a rather long-lived MCS to produce a swath of damaging wind gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph) as it moves southeastward. A significant wind (hatched) area has been added to highlight this potential, and greater unconditional wind probabilities will be needed if confidence in this scenario increases. Even if a dominant MCS does not develop, more localized severe storm development will be possible by late afternoon, especially near any remnant outflow boundaries. Any discrete convection could evolve into a supercells with a conditional risk of all severe hazards, though a tendency toward storm clustering is expected with time, with some guidance suggesting multiple potentially severe storm clusters emanating out of the central Plains. Father southeast, some intensification of remnant overnight convection across the Ohio Valley could occur across parts of TN into the Southeast, within a modest northwesterly flow regime. Isolated to scattered damaging wind should be the primary threat. Any intense MCS that develops upstream could eventually approach this region from the northwest, potentially posing another round of damaging-wind potential. ...Northern Plains... Weak height falls amid moderate to strong instability may lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development along a surface trough/dryline across the Dakotas this afternoon. Moderate westerlies should support moderate deep-layer vertical shear around 30 to 35 kt from 0-6 km, sufficient a few organized storms capable of both large hail and damaging gusts. ...Northern NY into northern New England... Moderate buoyancy may develop this afternoon from northern NY into northern New England. While storm coverage remains somewhat uncertain, deep-layer shear and relatively cool temperatures aloft could support a couple modestly organized storms capable of locally damaging wind, and possibly some hail. ...Mid Atlantic vicinity... A mid/upper-level trough and possibly an MCV will move across the Mid Atlantic vicinity later today. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by afternoon from northern VA into parts of PA. While there is some uncertainty regarding the extent of heating and destabilization, a couple stronger cells/clusters may become capable of producing isolated damaging wind. ..Dean/Weinman.. 07/30/2024 Read more

WW 0562 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 562 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE BLV TO 10 WSW EVV TO 30 S BMG TO 45 NE SDF. ..GRAMS..07/30/24 ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...PAH...IND...LMK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 562 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC055-059-065-081-145-165-189-193-199-300640- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FRANKLIN GALLATIN HAMILTON JEFFERSON PERRY SALINE WASHINGTON WHITE WILLIAMSON INC019-025-043-061-077-093-117-123-129-143-147-163-173-175- 300640- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK CRAWFORD FLOYD HARRISON JEFFERSON LAWRENCE ORANGE PERRY POSEY SCOTT SPENCER VANDERBURGH WARRICK WASHINGTON KYC027-029-059-091-093-101-103-111-123-149-163-179-185-211-215- 223-225-233-300640- Read more

WW 0563 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 563 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W TQE TO 20 ENE SUX TO 10 SSE FSD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1736. ..GRAMS..07/30/24 ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 563 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC021-035-041-093-133-141-149-167-193-300640- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUENA VISTA CHEROKEE CLAY IDA MONONA O'BRIEN PLYMOUTH SIOUX WOODBURY NEC021-300640- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BURT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0563 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 563 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W TQE TO 20 ENE SUX TO 10 SSE FSD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1736. ..GRAMS..07/30/24 ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 563 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC021-035-041-093-133-141-149-167-193-300640- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUENA VISTA CHEROKEE CLAY IDA MONONA O'BRIEN PLYMOUTH SIOUX WOODBURY NEC021-300640- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BURT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0563 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 563 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W TQE TO 20 ENE SUX TO 10 SSE FSD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1736. ..GRAMS..07/30/24 ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 563 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC021-035-041-093-133-141-149-167-193-300640- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUENA VISTA CHEROKEE CLAY IDA MONONA O'BRIEN PLYMOUTH SIOUX WOODBURY NEC021-300640- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BURT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0563 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 563 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W TQE TO 20 ENE SUX TO 10 SSE FSD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1736. ..GRAMS..07/30/24 ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 563 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC021-035-041-093-133-141-149-167-193-300640- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUENA VISTA CHEROKEE CLAY IDA MONONA O'BRIEN PLYMOUTH SIOUX WOODBURY NEC021-300640- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BURT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0563 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 563 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W TQE TO 20 ENE SUX TO 10 SSE FSD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1736. ..GRAMS..07/30/24 ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 563 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC021-035-041-093-133-141-149-167-193-300640- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUENA VISTA CHEROKEE CLAY IDA MONONA O'BRIEN PLYMOUTH SIOUX WOODBURY NEC021-300640- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BURT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0563 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 563 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W TQE TO 20 ENE SUX TO 10 SSE FSD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1736. ..GRAMS..07/30/24 ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 563 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC021-035-041-093-133-141-149-167-193-300640- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUENA VISTA CHEROKEE CLAY IDA MONONA O'BRIEN PLYMOUTH SIOUX WOODBURY NEC021-300640- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BURT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 563 SEVERE TSTM IA NE SD 300145Z - 300700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 563 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 845 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest Iowa Northeast Nebraska Southeast South Dakota * Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 845 PM until 200 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A large cluster of thunderstorms over south-central South Dakota will track east-southeastward, likely posing a continued risk of damaging wind gusts and some hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles west southwest of Yankton SD to 15 miles east southeast of Storm Lake IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 561...WW 562... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28035. ...Hart Read more

WW 0564 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 564 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE ABR TO 60 NW VVV TO 25 NW FAR. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1735. ..GRAMS..07/30/24 ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 564 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC005-011-027-041-051-111-121-149-151-155-167-300640- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKER BIG STONE CLAY DOUGLAS GRANT OTTER TAIL POPE STEVENS SWIFT TRAVERSE WILKIN NDC017-077-300640- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CASS RICHLAND SDC037-051-109-300640- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

748
ABPZ20 KNHC 300509
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Jul 29 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southern Mexico (EP94):
Satellite images indicate that an area of low pressure located a
few hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico continues
to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical
depression is very likely to form within the next couple of days.
The system is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at 10
to 15 mph during the next several days, remaining offshore of the
southern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave located well to the southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California Peninsula continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is
possible during the middle and latter parts of the week while it
moves westward to west-northwestward at about 10 mph across the
western portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
Central America and southern Mexico later this week. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression is likely to form towards the end of the
week or this weekend. The system is forecast to move westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next several days,
remaining offshore.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

WW 0565 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0565 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0565 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0565 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more