SPC MD 1728

1 year 1 month ago
MD 1728 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1728 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Areas affected...far southeastern Montana eastward to the central Dakotas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 292038Z - 292145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Isolated storm development is occurring from far southeastern Montana into west-central South Dakota, and should increase across the western and central Dakotas over the next 1 to 2 hours. WW issuance may be needed in the next hour. DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite and radar imagery show a lone thunderstorm developing over Meade County in South Dakota, and TCU/CB growth over far southeastern Montana along the southwestern North Dakota/northwestern South Dakota border area. The convection is developing on the western fringe of the CAPE axis, with 1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE observed either side of the North Dakota/South Dakota border. Storm development -- though overall coverage appears likely to remain widely scattered -- is expected to increase over the next 1 to 2 hours. Though low-level flow remains weak across the area, moderate mid-level flow is contributing to sufficient shear for organized/rotating updrafts. Presuming sufficient storm coverage evolves, risk for damaging winds and hail with the stronger cells will likely warrant WW issuance -- perhaps within the next hour or so. ..Goss/Gleason.. 07/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ... LAT...LON 44260364 45250443 46880368 47740077 46609870 44689950 43890141 44260364 Read more

SPC MD 1726

1 year 1 month ago
MD 1726 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR LOWER MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND NORTHERN GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1726 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Areas affected...Lower middle Tennessee into northeast Alabama and northern Georgia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 291938Z - 292145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A corridor of damaging wind potential may materialize in the next few hours across lower middle Tennessee into northeast Alabama and northwest Georgia. Watch issuance is not currently anticipated given an overall modest kinematic environment. DISCUSSION...A cluster of poorly organized convection - driven by the remnant outflow of an early-morning MCS across the lower OH River Valley - has been percolating for much of the late morning/early afternoon hours. Over the past 30-60 minutes, regional reflectivity and velocity data has shown some tendency for consolidating outflows and the development of a more coherent cold pool to the south of the Nashville, TN area. This may be the start of a loosely organized convective line that should propagate to the southeast into parts of northeast AL and northern GA in the coming hours along a diffuse buoyancy gradient. This cluster is currently on the periphery of stronger flow aloft, but the KHPX and KOHX VWPs are sampling 25-30 knot winds between 5-6 km, which may be sufficient for similar effective bulk shear values given weak low-level flow. These mid-level winds are expected to spread southeast in tandem with the developing line, which may promote some degree of organization and longevity of the line. Consequently, the potential for damaging wind may increase in the next few hours if a coherent line can become organized. ..Moore/Gleason.. 07/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN... LAT...LON 35568771 35908776 36088729 36158658 35998604 35988587 34858414 34668390 34418384 34108392 33808427 33728463 33678503 33688555 33698611 33918650 35568771 Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 561

1 year 1 month ago
WW 561 SEVERE TSTM ND NE SD 292125Z - 300500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 561 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 425 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central North Dakota Northern Nebraska Central South Dakota * Effective this Monday afternoon from 425 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter likely SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will develop and intensify across the watch area through the late afternoon and evening hours, with initial cells capable of large hail and locally damaging winds. The potential exists for more widespread wind damage potential by mid evening as storm clusters organize. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles north northwest of Bismarck ND to 10 miles south southeast of Ainsworth NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28030. ...Hart Read more

SPC MD 1725

1 year 1 month ago
MD 1725 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA TO CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1725 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Areas affected...Southeast Alabama to central Georgia and the Carolinas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 291909Z - 292115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Widespread thunderstorms will continue to spread across portions of Alabama, Georgia, and parts of the Carolinas through the afternoon hours. A few stronger to severe thunderstorms are possible and will mainly pose a damaging wind threat. Watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Recent regional radar composites across AL, GA, and SC show widespread thunderstorm development as temperatures warm into the mid to upper 80s (and even low 90s in some locations) within a very moist environment (mid to upper 70s dewpoints), resulting in the erosion of any lingering SBCIN. Recent RAP mesoanalysis estimates suggests that portions of southeast AL into southwest and central GA currently have the more conducive environment for strong to severe thunderstorms with MLLCLs between 1-2 km, theta-e deficits above 30 K, and SBCAPE approaching 3000 J/kg. Very weak mid/upper-level flow will continue to favor pulse cellular convection and multi-cell clusters with relatively short longevity. However, these thermodynamic conditions should be favorable for strong downburst winds that may reach 50-60 mph. To the northeast across northeast GA and SC, more linear convection has developed along a residual outflow boundary with consolidating cold pools noted in regional velocity data. While the thermodynamic environment is not currently as favorable for strong/severe downbursts as further southwest, continued daytime heating should gradually improve low-level lapse rates through mid/late afternoon, resulting in an increasing damaging wind threat. However, given the poor deep-layer wind shear, the overall severity of these lines/clusters will remain limited and precludes watch issuance. ..Moore/Gleason.. 07/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... LAT...LON 31128345 30868398 30838441 30928509 31138561 31458605 31818629 32358625 32808606 33078548 33208494 33298450 33378411 33758351 34138295 34828222 35168178 35318125 35198063 34948037 34518034 33898063 33208125 32588167 32188213 31838256 31578291 31308323 31128345 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 1 month ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z A mid-level trough will eject into the Plains states as an upper ridge becomes established across the Interior west through the remainder of the period. During the week, warm and dry conditions will continue and perhaps intensify over areas west of the Rockies, potentially priming fuels in the process. Dry/breezy conditions and any dry thunderstorms should be sparse and possibly localized, with no Critical or dry thunderstorm probabilities introduced through Day 5 (Friday). By the weekend into next Monday (Days 6-8) though, mid-level monsoonal moisture should pivot around the upper ridge and rotate northward into northern California, to points east of the Cascades, fostering isolated thunderstorm potential. These storms are likely to be dry in nature, and are poised to overspread critically dry fuels supporting efficient lightning-induced ignitions. Though considerable uncertainty remains regarding exactly where and when lightning will occur this far in advance, the volatile nature of the fuels and overall likelihood of thunderstorms at some point this weekend into next Monday warrant the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 07/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 1 month ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z A mid-level trough will eject into the Plains states as an upper ridge becomes established across the Interior west through the remainder of the period. During the week, warm and dry conditions will continue and perhaps intensify over areas west of the Rockies, potentially priming fuels in the process. Dry/breezy conditions and any dry thunderstorms should be sparse and possibly localized, with no Critical or dry thunderstorm probabilities introduced through Day 5 (Friday). By the weekend into next Monday (Days 6-8) though, mid-level monsoonal moisture should pivot around the upper ridge and rotate northward into northern California, to points east of the Cascades, fostering isolated thunderstorm potential. These storms are likely to be dry in nature, and are poised to overspread critically dry fuels supporting efficient lightning-induced ignitions. Though considerable uncertainty remains regarding exactly where and when lightning will occur this far in advance, the volatile nature of the fuels and overall likelihood of thunderstorms at some point this weekend into next Monday warrant the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 07/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 1 month ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z A mid-level trough will eject into the Plains states as an upper ridge becomes established across the Interior west through the remainder of the period. During the week, warm and dry conditions will continue and perhaps intensify over areas west of the Rockies, potentially priming fuels in the process. Dry/breezy conditions and any dry thunderstorms should be sparse and possibly localized, with no Critical or dry thunderstorm probabilities introduced through Day 5 (Friday). By the weekend into next Monday (Days 6-8) though, mid-level monsoonal moisture should pivot around the upper ridge and rotate northward into northern California, to points east of the Cascades, fostering isolated thunderstorm potential. These storms are likely to be dry in nature, and are poised to overspread critically dry fuels supporting efficient lightning-induced ignitions. Though considerable uncertainty remains regarding exactly where and when lightning will occur this far in advance, the volatile nature of the fuels and overall likelihood of thunderstorms at some point this weekend into next Monday warrant the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 07/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 1 month ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z A mid-level trough will eject into the Plains states as an upper ridge becomes established across the Interior west through the remainder of the period. During the week, warm and dry conditions will continue and perhaps intensify over areas west of the Rockies, potentially priming fuels in the process. Dry/breezy conditions and any dry thunderstorms should be sparse and possibly localized, with no Critical or dry thunderstorm probabilities introduced through Day 5 (Friday). By the weekend into next Monday (Days 6-8) though, mid-level monsoonal moisture should pivot around the upper ridge and rotate northward into northern California, to points east of the Cascades, fostering isolated thunderstorm potential. These storms are likely to be dry in nature, and are poised to overspread critically dry fuels supporting efficient lightning-induced ignitions. Though considerable uncertainty remains regarding exactly where and when lightning will occur this far in advance, the volatile nature of the fuels and overall likelihood of thunderstorms at some point this weekend into next Monday warrant the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 07/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 1 month ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z A mid-level trough will eject into the Plains states as an upper ridge becomes established across the Interior west through the remainder of the period. During the week, warm and dry conditions will continue and perhaps intensify over areas west of the Rockies, potentially priming fuels in the process. Dry/breezy conditions and any dry thunderstorms should be sparse and possibly localized, with no Critical or dry thunderstorm probabilities introduced through Day 5 (Friday). By the weekend into next Monday (Days 6-8) though, mid-level monsoonal moisture should pivot around the upper ridge and rotate northward into northern California, to points east of the Cascades, fostering isolated thunderstorm potential. These storms are likely to be dry in nature, and are poised to overspread critically dry fuels supporting efficient lightning-induced ignitions. Though considerable uncertainty remains regarding exactly where and when lightning will occur this far in advance, the volatile nature of the fuels and overall likelihood of thunderstorms at some point this weekend into next Monday warrant the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 07/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 1 month ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z A mid-level trough will eject into the Plains states as an upper ridge becomes established across the Interior west through the remainder of the period. During the week, warm and dry conditions will continue and perhaps intensify over areas west of the Rockies, potentially priming fuels in the process. Dry/breezy conditions and any dry thunderstorms should be sparse and possibly localized, with no Critical or dry thunderstorm probabilities introduced through Day 5 (Friday). By the weekend into next Monday (Days 6-8) though, mid-level monsoonal moisture should pivot around the upper ridge and rotate northward into northern California, to points east of the Cascades, fostering isolated thunderstorm potential. These storms are likely to be dry in nature, and are poised to overspread critically dry fuels supporting efficient lightning-induced ignitions. Though considerable uncertainty remains regarding exactly where and when lightning will occur this far in advance, the volatile nature of the fuels and overall likelihood of thunderstorms at some point this weekend into next Monday warrant the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 07/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 1 month ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z A mid-level trough will eject into the Plains states as an upper ridge becomes established across the Interior west through the remainder of the period. During the week, warm and dry conditions will continue and perhaps intensify over areas west of the Rockies, potentially priming fuels in the process. Dry/breezy conditions and any dry thunderstorms should be sparse and possibly localized, with no Critical or dry thunderstorm probabilities introduced through Day 5 (Friday). By the weekend into next Monday (Days 6-8) though, mid-level monsoonal moisture should pivot around the upper ridge and rotate northward into northern California, to points east of the Cascades, fostering isolated thunderstorm potential. These storms are likely to be dry in nature, and are poised to overspread critically dry fuels supporting efficient lightning-induced ignitions. Though considerable uncertainty remains regarding exactly where and when lightning will occur this far in advance, the volatile nature of the fuels and overall likelihood of thunderstorms at some point this weekend into next Monday warrant the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 07/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 1 month ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z A mid-level trough will eject into the Plains states as an upper ridge becomes established across the Interior west through the remainder of the period. During the week, warm and dry conditions will continue and perhaps intensify over areas west of the Rockies, potentially priming fuels in the process. Dry/breezy conditions and any dry thunderstorms should be sparse and possibly localized, with no Critical or dry thunderstorm probabilities introduced through Day 5 (Friday). By the weekend into next Monday (Days 6-8) though, mid-level monsoonal moisture should pivot around the upper ridge and rotate northward into northern California, to points east of the Cascades, fostering isolated thunderstorm potential. These storms are likely to be dry in nature, and are poised to overspread critically dry fuels supporting efficient lightning-induced ignitions. Though considerable uncertainty remains regarding exactly where and when lightning will occur this far in advance, the volatile nature of the fuels and overall likelihood of thunderstorms at some point this weekend into next Monday warrant the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 07/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 1 month ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z A mid-level trough will eject into the Plains states as an upper ridge becomes established across the Interior west through the remainder of the period. During the week, warm and dry conditions will continue and perhaps intensify over areas west of the Rockies, potentially priming fuels in the process. Dry/breezy conditions and any dry thunderstorms should be sparse and possibly localized, with no Critical or dry thunderstorm probabilities introduced through Day 5 (Friday). By the weekend into next Monday (Days 6-8) though, mid-level monsoonal moisture should pivot around the upper ridge and rotate northward into northern California, to points east of the Cascades, fostering isolated thunderstorm potential. These storms are likely to be dry in nature, and are poised to overspread critically dry fuels supporting efficient lightning-induced ignitions. Though considerable uncertainty remains regarding exactly where and when lightning will occur this far in advance, the volatile nature of the fuels and overall likelihood of thunderstorms at some point this weekend into next Monday warrant the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 07/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 1 month ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z A mid-level trough will eject into the Plains states as an upper ridge becomes established across the Interior west through the remainder of the period. During the week, warm and dry conditions will continue and perhaps intensify over areas west of the Rockies, potentially priming fuels in the process. Dry/breezy conditions and any dry thunderstorms should be sparse and possibly localized, with no Critical or dry thunderstorm probabilities introduced through Day 5 (Friday). By the weekend into next Monday (Days 6-8) though, mid-level monsoonal moisture should pivot around the upper ridge and rotate northward into northern California, to points east of the Cascades, fostering isolated thunderstorm potential. These storms are likely to be dry in nature, and are poised to overspread critically dry fuels supporting efficient lightning-induced ignitions. Though considerable uncertainty remains regarding exactly where and when lightning will occur this far in advance, the volatile nature of the fuels and overall likelihood of thunderstorms at some point this weekend into next Monday warrant the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 07/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more