Aggregator

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across parts of the lower Great Lakes, Southeast and from the Four Corners region northeastward into the north-central states. No severe thunderstorms are expected Monday or Monday night. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the Northeast on Monday. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible near the through in the lower Great Lakes region. Additional storms are expected to develop near the Gulf Coast along and near a front. Other storms will likely develop from the Four Corners region northeastward into the north-central states. No severe storms are expected Monday and Monday night across the U.S. ..Broyles.. 09/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across parts of the lower Great Lakes, Southeast and from the Four Corners region northeastward into the north-central states. No severe thunderstorms are expected Monday or Monday night. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the Northeast on Monday. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible near the through in the lower Great Lakes region. Additional storms are expected to develop near the Gulf Coast along and near a front. Other storms will likely develop from the Four Corners region northeastward into the north-central states. No severe storms are expected Monday and Monday night across the U.S. ..Broyles.. 09/07/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... The upper trough on the Pacific Coast is forecast to move inland Sunday while the mid-level ridge over much of the West is expected to continue retreating. A belt of stronger mid-level flow associated with the trough will gradually overspread portions of the Northwest and northern Great Basin, supporting an increase in surface winds to 15-25 mph. Aided by the increased mixing, and residual warm temperatures beneath the weakening ridge, diurnal minimum RH values below 15% are likely. Widespread elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are possible across the northern Sierra and Great Basin, where the dry and breezy conditions will overlap with areas of dry fuels. Farther north in the lee of the Cascades, gusty downslope and gap winds may also support brief elevated fire-weather potential as stronger flow aloft develops. However, some humidity recovery will eventually occur as marine influence will increase with time, potentially limiting the coverage and duration of fire-weather concerns. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing early in the period as the cold core of the upper trough moves inland over the Northwest. As lift from the upper trough and mid-level moisture move inland, additional storms may develop into the afternoon atop warm and dry low levels. Forecast soundings suggest mid/high-level cloud cover and some potential for smoke to limit heating and diurnal storm coverage. Still, isolated storm potential, along with dry low levels and storm motions greater than 20 kt will likely support a risk for dry thunderstorms atop receptive fuels. Confidence in dry thunderstorm coverage is greatest across portions of the northern and central Cascades, into eastern ID and far southwestern MT. Scattered thunderstorms are also possible farther across the southern Great Basin and southern CA. Displaced from the stronger flow aloft, and with access to more robust monsoon moisture, slower storm speeds and a wetter storm mode are expected. Still, a few drier lightning strikes will remain possible atop mostly receptive fuel beds. ..Lyons.. 09/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... The upper trough on the Pacific Coast is forecast to move inland Sunday while the mid-level ridge over much of the West is expected to continue retreating. A belt of stronger mid-level flow associated with the trough will gradually overspread portions of the Northwest and northern Great Basin, supporting an increase in surface winds to 15-25 mph. Aided by the increased mixing, and residual warm temperatures beneath the weakening ridge, diurnal minimum RH values below 15% are likely. Widespread elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are possible across the northern Sierra and Great Basin, where the dry and breezy conditions will overlap with areas of dry fuels. Farther north in the lee of the Cascades, gusty downslope and gap winds may also support brief elevated fire-weather potential as stronger flow aloft develops. However, some humidity recovery will eventually occur as marine influence will increase with time, potentially limiting the coverage and duration of fire-weather concerns. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing early in the period as the cold core of the upper trough moves inland over the Northwest. As lift from the upper trough and mid-level moisture move inland, additional storms may develop into the afternoon atop warm and dry low levels. Forecast soundings suggest mid/high-level cloud cover and some potential for smoke to limit heating and diurnal storm coverage. Still, isolated storm potential, along with dry low levels and storm motions greater than 20 kt will likely support a risk for dry thunderstorms atop receptive fuels. Confidence in dry thunderstorm coverage is greatest across portions of the northern and central Cascades, into eastern ID and far southwestern MT. Scattered thunderstorms are also possible farther across the southern Great Basin and southern CA. Displaced from the stronger flow aloft, and with access to more robust monsoon moisture, slower storm speeds and a wetter storm mode are expected. Still, a few drier lightning strikes will remain possible atop mostly receptive fuel beds. ..Lyons.. 09/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... The upper trough on the Pacific Coast is forecast to move inland Sunday while the mid-level ridge over much of the West is expected to continue retreating. A belt of stronger mid-level flow associated with the trough will gradually overspread portions of the Northwest and northern Great Basin, supporting an increase in surface winds to 15-25 mph. Aided by the increased mixing, and residual warm temperatures beneath the weakening ridge, diurnal minimum RH values below 15% are likely. Widespread elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are possible across the northern Sierra and Great Basin, where the dry and breezy conditions will overlap with areas of dry fuels. Farther north in the lee of the Cascades, gusty downslope and gap winds may also support brief elevated fire-weather potential as stronger flow aloft develops. However, some humidity recovery will eventually occur as marine influence will increase with time, potentially limiting the coverage and duration of fire-weather concerns. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing early in the period as the cold core of the upper trough moves inland over the Northwest. As lift from the upper trough and mid-level moisture move inland, additional storms may develop into the afternoon atop warm and dry low levels. Forecast soundings suggest mid/high-level cloud cover and some potential for smoke to limit heating and diurnal storm coverage. Still, isolated storm potential, along with dry low levels and storm motions greater than 20 kt will likely support a risk for dry thunderstorms atop receptive fuels. Confidence in dry thunderstorm coverage is greatest across portions of the northern and central Cascades, into eastern ID and far southwestern MT. Scattered thunderstorms are also possible farther across the southern Great Basin and southern CA. Displaced from the stronger flow aloft, and with access to more robust monsoon moisture, slower storm speeds and a wetter storm mode are expected. Still, a few drier lightning strikes will remain possible atop mostly receptive fuel beds. ..Lyons.. 09/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... The upper trough on the Pacific Coast is forecast to move inland Sunday while the mid-level ridge over much of the West is expected to continue retreating. A belt of stronger mid-level flow associated with the trough will gradually overspread portions of the Northwest and northern Great Basin, supporting an increase in surface winds to 15-25 mph. Aided by the increased mixing, and residual warm temperatures beneath the weakening ridge, diurnal minimum RH values below 15% are likely. Widespread elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are possible across the northern Sierra and Great Basin, where the dry and breezy conditions will overlap with areas of dry fuels. Farther north in the lee of the Cascades, gusty downslope and gap winds may also support brief elevated fire-weather potential as stronger flow aloft develops. However, some humidity recovery will eventually occur as marine influence will increase with time, potentially limiting the coverage and duration of fire-weather concerns. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing early in the period as the cold core of the upper trough moves inland over the Northwest. As lift from the upper trough and mid-level moisture move inland, additional storms may develop into the afternoon atop warm and dry low levels. Forecast soundings suggest mid/high-level cloud cover and some potential for smoke to limit heating and diurnal storm coverage. Still, isolated storm potential, along with dry low levels and storm motions greater than 20 kt will likely support a risk for dry thunderstorms atop receptive fuels. Confidence in dry thunderstorm coverage is greatest across portions of the northern and central Cascades, into eastern ID and far southwestern MT. Scattered thunderstorms are also possible farther across the southern Great Basin and southern CA. Displaced from the stronger flow aloft, and with access to more robust monsoon moisture, slower storm speeds and a wetter storm mode are expected. Still, a few drier lightning strikes will remain possible atop mostly receptive fuel beds. ..Lyons.. 09/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... An upper ridge over the western CONUS is forecast to slowly weaken under the influence of an approaching Pacific trough today and tonight. As ascent from the trough overspreads mid-level moisture, thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Cascades in OR and southern WA. Model and observed soundings show weak buoyancy atop hot and well-mixed boundary-layer profiles, supporting low precipitation efficiency, especially with storm motions greater than 20 kt. Hi-res model guidance suggests dry thunderstorm potential is highest across portions of the central Cascades, though more isolated and drier storms will also be possible across the northern Sierra and portions of southern CA. ...Sierra and northwest Great Basin... To the south of the main trough, moderate mid-level flow should gradually expand over parts of northern CA and the northern Great Basin. Gusty winds of 15-20 mph in the lee of the Sierra are likely to overlap with afternoon RH values of 15-20%. With receptive fuels and at least a few hours of dry and breezy conditions possible, elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. ..Lyons.. 09/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... An upper ridge over the western CONUS is forecast to slowly weaken under the influence of an approaching Pacific trough today and tonight. As ascent from the trough overspreads mid-level moisture, thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Cascades in OR and southern WA. Model and observed soundings show weak buoyancy atop hot and well-mixed boundary-layer profiles, supporting low precipitation efficiency, especially with storm motions greater than 20 kt. Hi-res model guidance suggests dry thunderstorm potential is highest across portions of the central Cascades, though more isolated and drier storms will also be possible across the northern Sierra and portions of southern CA. ...Sierra and northwest Great Basin... To the south of the main trough, moderate mid-level flow should gradually expand over parts of northern CA and the northern Great Basin. Gusty winds of 15-20 mph in the lee of the Sierra are likely to overlap with afternoon RH values of 15-20%. With receptive fuels and at least a few hours of dry and breezy conditions possible, elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. ..Lyons.. 09/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... An upper ridge over the western CONUS is forecast to slowly weaken under the influence of an approaching Pacific trough today and tonight. As ascent from the trough overspreads mid-level moisture, thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Cascades in OR and southern WA. Model and observed soundings show weak buoyancy atop hot and well-mixed boundary-layer profiles, supporting low precipitation efficiency, especially with storm motions greater than 20 kt. Hi-res model guidance suggests dry thunderstorm potential is highest across portions of the central Cascades, though more isolated and drier storms will also be possible across the northern Sierra and portions of southern CA. ...Sierra and northwest Great Basin... To the south of the main trough, moderate mid-level flow should gradually expand over parts of northern CA and the northern Great Basin. Gusty winds of 15-20 mph in the lee of the Sierra are likely to overlap with afternoon RH values of 15-20%. With receptive fuels and at least a few hours of dry and breezy conditions possible, elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. ..Lyons.. 09/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... An upper ridge over the western CONUS is forecast to slowly weaken under the influence of an approaching Pacific trough today and tonight. As ascent from the trough overspreads mid-level moisture, thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Cascades in OR and southern WA. Model and observed soundings show weak buoyancy atop hot and well-mixed boundary-layer profiles, supporting low precipitation efficiency, especially with storm motions greater than 20 kt. Hi-res model guidance suggests dry thunderstorm potential is highest across portions of the central Cascades, though more isolated and drier storms will also be possible across the northern Sierra and portions of southern CA. ...Sierra and northwest Great Basin... To the south of the main trough, moderate mid-level flow should gradually expand over parts of northern CA and the northern Great Basin. Gusty winds of 15-20 mph in the lee of the Sierra are likely to overlap with afternoon RH values of 15-20%. With receptive fuels and at least a few hours of dry and breezy conditions possible, elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. ..Lyons.. 09/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday in parts of the Southeast, western states and Great Lakes. No severe weather is expected. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Sunday. In the wake of the trough, northwest mid-level flow will be in place over the Great Lakes. Strong large-scale ascent and cold temperatures aloft, associated with the trough, will be favorable for isolated thunderstorms. Additional thunderstorms will be possible in the central and eastern Gulf Coast states near and to the south of a front. In the western U.S., scattered thunderstorms are expected to the west of an upper-level ridge, over much of the Intermountain West. No severe threat is expected in the U.S. on Sunday or Sunday night. ..Broyles.. 09/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday in parts of the Southeast, western states and Great Lakes. No severe weather is expected. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Sunday. In the wake of the trough, northwest mid-level flow will be in place over the Great Lakes. Strong large-scale ascent and cold temperatures aloft, associated with the trough, will be favorable for isolated thunderstorms. Additional thunderstorms will be possible in the central and eastern Gulf Coast states near and to the south of a front. In the western U.S., scattered thunderstorms are expected to the west of an upper-level ridge, over much of the Intermountain West. No severe threat is expected in the U.S. on Sunday or Sunday night. ..Broyles.. 09/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday in parts of the Southeast, western states and Great Lakes. No severe weather is expected. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Sunday. In the wake of the trough, northwest mid-level flow will be in place over the Great Lakes. Strong large-scale ascent and cold temperatures aloft, associated with the trough, will be favorable for isolated thunderstorms. Additional thunderstorms will be possible in the central and eastern Gulf Coast states near and to the south of a front. In the western U.S., scattered thunderstorms are expected to the west of an upper-level ridge, over much of the Intermountain West. No severe threat is expected in the U.S. on Sunday or Sunday night. ..Broyles.. 09/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday in parts of the Southeast, western states and Great Lakes. No severe weather is expected. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Sunday. In the wake of the trough, northwest mid-level flow will be in place over the Great Lakes. Strong large-scale ascent and cold temperatures aloft, associated with the trough, will be favorable for isolated thunderstorms. Additional thunderstorms will be possible in the central and eastern Gulf Coast states near and to the south of a front. In the western U.S., scattered thunderstorms are expected to the west of an upper-level ridge, over much of the Intermountain West. No severe threat is expected in the U.S. on Sunday or Sunday night. ..Broyles.. 09/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast today; although, a few strong gusts could accompany the most robust convection. ...Northeast... Seasonally strong upper trough will shift across the lower Great Lakes later this afternoon, along with 60-120m, 12hr 500mb height falls. Latest guidance suggests a 70kt 500mb speed max will translate through the base of the trough across eastern PA into southern New England after 08/00z. This feature should encourage scattered convection along the synoptic front, though mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be quite weak, and this will limit buoyancy across the Hudson Valley into northern NJ. Forecast soundings ahead of the front suggest MLCAPE values will remain less than 1000 J/kg, with only modest shear in the lowest 3km. While weak frontal convection may exhibit some organization, given the large-scale support, weak lapse rates and only modest lower-tropospheric flow do not favor severe thunderstorms. ...Central High Plains... Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a weak, but well-defined short-wave trough over eastern MT, digging south-southeast toward the Black Hills region. This feature will ensure a focused lee trough holds across the central High Plains, and should encourage a strengthening LLJ this evening across western KS into western NE. Latest model guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will occur across eastern CO into the NE Panhandle. While convective temperatures should be breached by late afternoon, PW values will likely remain generally less than 1 inch across this region. Even so, forecast soundings support high-based convection that will be strongly sheared. Some consideration has been given for adding a MRGL risk to portions of the NE Panhandle into northeast CO to account for a few strong gusts, or perhaps marginally severe hail. Will continue to monitor this region. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 09/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast today; although, a few strong gusts could accompany the most robust convection. ...Northeast... Seasonally strong upper trough will shift across the lower Great Lakes later this afternoon, along with 60-120m, 12hr 500mb height falls. Latest guidance suggests a 70kt 500mb speed max will translate through the base of the trough across eastern PA into southern New England after 08/00z. This feature should encourage scattered convection along the synoptic front, though mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be quite weak, and this will limit buoyancy across the Hudson Valley into northern NJ. Forecast soundings ahead of the front suggest MLCAPE values will remain less than 1000 J/kg, with only modest shear in the lowest 3km. While weak frontal convection may exhibit some organization, given the large-scale support, weak lapse rates and only modest lower-tropospheric flow do not favor severe thunderstorms. ...Central High Plains... Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a weak, but well-defined short-wave trough over eastern MT, digging south-southeast toward the Black Hills region. This feature will ensure a focused lee trough holds across the central High Plains, and should encourage a strengthening LLJ this evening across western KS into western NE. Latest model guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will occur across eastern CO into the NE Panhandle. While convective temperatures should be breached by late afternoon, PW values will likely remain generally less than 1 inch across this region. Even so, forecast soundings support high-based convection that will be strongly sheared. Some consideration has been given for adding a MRGL risk to portions of the NE Panhandle into northeast CO to account for a few strong gusts, or perhaps marginally severe hail. Will continue to monitor this region. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 09/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast today; although, a few strong gusts could accompany the most robust convection. ...Northeast... Seasonally strong upper trough will shift across the lower Great Lakes later this afternoon, along with 60-120m, 12hr 500mb height falls. Latest guidance suggests a 70kt 500mb speed max will translate through the base of the trough across eastern PA into southern New England after 08/00z. This feature should encourage scattered convection along the synoptic front, though mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be quite weak, and this will limit buoyancy across the Hudson Valley into northern NJ. Forecast soundings ahead of the front suggest MLCAPE values will remain less than 1000 J/kg, with only modest shear in the lowest 3km. While weak frontal convection may exhibit some organization, given the large-scale support, weak lapse rates and only modest lower-tropospheric flow do not favor severe thunderstorms. ...Central High Plains... Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a weak, but well-defined short-wave trough over eastern MT, digging south-southeast toward the Black Hills region. This feature will ensure a focused lee trough holds across the central High Plains, and should encourage a strengthening LLJ this evening across western KS into western NE. Latest model guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will occur across eastern CO into the NE Panhandle. While convective temperatures should be breached by late afternoon, PW values will likely remain generally less than 1 inch across this region. Even so, forecast soundings support high-based convection that will be strongly sheared. Some consideration has been given for adding a MRGL risk to portions of the NE Panhandle into northeast CO to account for a few strong gusts, or perhaps marginally severe hail. Will continue to monitor this region. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 09/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast today; although, a few strong gusts could accompany the most robust convection. ...Northeast... Seasonally strong upper trough will shift across the lower Great Lakes later this afternoon, along with 60-120m, 12hr 500mb height falls. Latest guidance suggests a 70kt 500mb speed max will translate through the base of the trough across eastern PA into southern New England after 08/00z. This feature should encourage scattered convection along the synoptic front, though mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be quite weak, and this will limit buoyancy across the Hudson Valley into northern NJ. Forecast soundings ahead of the front suggest MLCAPE values will remain less than 1000 J/kg, with only modest shear in the lowest 3km. While weak frontal convection may exhibit some organization, given the large-scale support, weak lapse rates and only modest lower-tropospheric flow do not favor severe thunderstorms. ...Central High Plains... Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a weak, but well-defined short-wave trough over eastern MT, digging south-southeast toward the Black Hills region. This feature will ensure a focused lee trough holds across the central High Plains, and should encourage a strengthening LLJ this evening across western KS into western NE. Latest model guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will occur across eastern CO into the NE Panhandle. While convective temperatures should be breached by late afternoon, PW values will likely remain generally less than 1 inch across this region. Even so, forecast soundings support high-based convection that will be strongly sheared. Some consideration has been given for adding a MRGL risk to portions of the NE Panhandle into northeast CO to account for a few strong gusts, or perhaps marginally severe hail. Will continue to monitor this region. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 09/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast today; although, a few strong gusts could accompany the most robust convection. ...Northeast... Seasonally strong upper trough will shift across the lower Great Lakes later this afternoon, along with 60-120m, 12hr 500mb height falls. Latest guidance suggests a 70kt 500mb speed max will translate through the base of the trough across eastern PA into southern New England after 08/00z. This feature should encourage scattered convection along the synoptic front, though mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be quite weak, and this will limit buoyancy across the Hudson Valley into northern NJ. Forecast soundings ahead of the front suggest MLCAPE values will remain less than 1000 J/kg, with only modest shear in the lowest 3km. While weak frontal convection may exhibit some organization, given the large-scale support, weak lapse rates and only modest lower-tropospheric flow do not favor severe thunderstorms. ...Central High Plains... Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a weak, but well-defined short-wave trough over eastern MT, digging south-southeast toward the Black Hills region. This feature will ensure a focused lee trough holds across the central High Plains, and should encourage a strengthening LLJ this evening across western KS into western NE. Latest model guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will occur across eastern CO into the NE Panhandle. While convective temperatures should be breached by late afternoon, PW values will likely remain generally less than 1 inch across this region. Even so, forecast soundings support high-based convection that will be strongly sheared. Some consideration has been given for adding a MRGL risk to portions of the NE Panhandle into northeast CO to account for a few strong gusts, or perhaps marginally severe hail. Will continue to monitor this region. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 09/07/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 070508
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Sep 6 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form during the early to
middle part of next week, near or just to the south of the coast of
southern or southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions could
support gradual development of this system thereafter while it moves
generally northwestward, near the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart