Aggregator

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast today, though a few strong gusts could accompany the more robust storms across the central High Plains and Lower Colorado River Valley vicinity. ...01Z Update... ...Northeast... General thunder was removed across the region given the scant buoyancy and limited land area ahead of the cold front across southern New England. A flash or two is still possible within the more cellular activity across western NY and PA. However, coverage is expected to be less than 10%. ...Elsewhere... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible along the immediate Gulf Coast and across the FL Peninsula tonight through tomorrow morning. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm are expected to continue from the central High Plains/central Rockies through much of AZ and the Lower CO River Valley. Highest coverage is expected over the Lower CO River Valley. A few stronger storms capable of hail and/or damaging wind gusts in these areas, but overall coverage should remain very isolated. Lastly, isolated thunderstorms could last a few more hour across central OR and adjacent south-central WA. ..Mosier.. 09/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast today, though a few strong gusts could accompany the more robust storms across the central High Plains and Lower Colorado River Valley vicinity. ...01Z Update... ...Northeast... General thunder was removed across the region given the scant buoyancy and limited land area ahead of the cold front across southern New England. A flash or two is still possible within the more cellular activity across western NY and PA. However, coverage is expected to be less than 10%. ...Elsewhere... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible along the immediate Gulf Coast and across the FL Peninsula tonight through tomorrow morning. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm are expected to continue from the central High Plains/central Rockies through much of AZ and the Lower CO River Valley. Highest coverage is expected over the Lower CO River Valley. A few stronger storms capable of hail and/or damaging wind gusts in these areas, but overall coverage should remain very isolated. Lastly, isolated thunderstorms could last a few more hour across central OR and adjacent south-central WA. ..Mosier.. 09/08/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 072332
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Sep 7 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form during the early to
middle part of next week, near or just to the south of the coast of
southern or southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions could
support gradual development of this system thereafter while it moves
generally northwestward, near the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

No watches are valid as of Sat Sep 7 22:31:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Sep 7 22:31:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 PM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A seasonably strong trough will move into the Northwest early next week. This feature will dig into the Great Basin mid/late next week before lifting northeastward by the weekend. Fire weather concerns will be greatest within parts of the Great Basin beginning next week. Additional concerns are possible in the Plains depending on trends in model guidance and fuel receptiveness. ...Great Basin... Fire weather concerns will increase across the Great Basin on Tuesday as upper-level winds begin to increase across the Sierra. The spatial extent of stronger surface winds on Tuesday is a bit uncertain given the initially weak surface pressure pattern. Potential for critical fire weather will increase on Wednesday as the trough digs farther south and east and a deeper surface trough develops in the central/eastern Basin. Very dry conditions are possible along with winds that could exceed 20 mph, especially in southern Nevada into western Utah. ...Northwest... A few hours of elevated to near-critical conditions are possible in the lee of the Cascades as winds increase ahead of the surface front on Monday. RH may be on the marginal side, particularly with northward extent, as the influence of marine air will be on the increase. However, recent active fire behavior and ignitions from recent lightning suggest some fire weather concerns will be present with the modest increase in westerly surface winds. ...Central and Northern High Plains/Plains... As the strong trough moves into the Great Basin and eventually lifts northeastward mid/late next week, southerly winds across these regions will increase as a surface low and lee trough deepens. The typically drier GFS would suggest at least elevated fire weather conditions are possible, but there is low confidence in ensemble guidance as well as the ECMWF as to where and for how long near-critical/critical conditions may occur. Furthermore, fuels are not equally dry across all areas. In general, initial return flow cases tend to verify drier than expected and with the added potential for a tropical system to impact the central Gulf Coast into the Mid South late next week, this may further stunt moisture return northward. Trends in model guidance and fuel dryness will continue to be monitored. ...Western/central Montana... As a surface low deepens in Alberta/Saskatchewan and a lee trough extends into the central High Plains, surface winds will increase in the lee of the terrain and into parts of central Montana. Downslope winds will lead to dry afternoon conditions on Monday. Upper-level winds over the area will be only modest and fuels are only moderately dry, however. Potential for critical fire weather appears too low for highlights, though at least a few hours of elevated conditions are possible. ..Wendt.. 09/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 PM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A seasonably strong trough will move into the Northwest early next week. This feature will dig into the Great Basin mid/late next week before lifting northeastward by the weekend. Fire weather concerns will be greatest within parts of the Great Basin beginning next week. Additional concerns are possible in the Plains depending on trends in model guidance and fuel receptiveness. ...Great Basin... Fire weather concerns will increase across the Great Basin on Tuesday as upper-level winds begin to increase across the Sierra. The spatial extent of stronger surface winds on Tuesday is a bit uncertain given the initially weak surface pressure pattern. Potential for critical fire weather will increase on Wednesday as the trough digs farther south and east and a deeper surface trough develops in the central/eastern Basin. Very dry conditions are possible along with winds that could exceed 20 mph, especially in southern Nevada into western Utah. ...Northwest... A few hours of elevated to near-critical conditions are possible in the lee of the Cascades as winds increase ahead of the surface front on Monday. RH may be on the marginal side, particularly with northward extent, as the influence of marine air will be on the increase. However, recent active fire behavior and ignitions from recent lightning suggest some fire weather concerns will be present with the modest increase in westerly surface winds. ...Central and Northern High Plains/Plains... As the strong trough moves into the Great Basin and eventually lifts northeastward mid/late next week, southerly winds across these regions will increase as a surface low and lee trough deepens. The typically drier GFS would suggest at least elevated fire weather conditions are possible, but there is low confidence in ensemble guidance as well as the ECMWF as to where and for how long near-critical/critical conditions may occur. Furthermore, fuels are not equally dry across all areas. In general, initial return flow cases tend to verify drier than expected and with the added potential for a tropical system to impact the central Gulf Coast into the Mid South late next week, this may further stunt moisture return northward. Trends in model guidance and fuel dryness will continue to be monitored. ...Western/central Montana... As a surface low deepens in Alberta/Saskatchewan and a lee trough extends into the central High Plains, surface winds will increase in the lee of the terrain and into parts of central Montana. Downslope winds will lead to dry afternoon conditions on Monday. Upper-level winds over the area will be only modest and fuels are only moderately dry, however. Potential for critical fire weather appears too low for highlights, though at least a few hours of elevated conditions are possible. ..Wendt.. 09/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 PM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A seasonably strong trough will move into the Northwest early next week. This feature will dig into the Great Basin mid/late next week before lifting northeastward by the weekend. Fire weather concerns will be greatest within parts of the Great Basin beginning next week. Additional concerns are possible in the Plains depending on trends in model guidance and fuel receptiveness. ...Great Basin... Fire weather concerns will increase across the Great Basin on Tuesday as upper-level winds begin to increase across the Sierra. The spatial extent of stronger surface winds on Tuesday is a bit uncertain given the initially weak surface pressure pattern. Potential for critical fire weather will increase on Wednesday as the trough digs farther south and east and a deeper surface trough develops in the central/eastern Basin. Very dry conditions are possible along with winds that could exceed 20 mph, especially in southern Nevada into western Utah. ...Northwest... A few hours of elevated to near-critical conditions are possible in the lee of the Cascades as winds increase ahead of the surface front on Monday. RH may be on the marginal side, particularly with northward extent, as the influence of marine air will be on the increase. However, recent active fire behavior and ignitions from recent lightning suggest some fire weather concerns will be present with the modest increase in westerly surface winds. ...Central and Northern High Plains/Plains... As the strong trough moves into the Great Basin and eventually lifts northeastward mid/late next week, southerly winds across these regions will increase as a surface low and lee trough deepens. The typically drier GFS would suggest at least elevated fire weather conditions are possible, but there is low confidence in ensemble guidance as well as the ECMWF as to where and for how long near-critical/critical conditions may occur. Furthermore, fuels are not equally dry across all areas. In general, initial return flow cases tend to verify drier than expected and with the added potential for a tropical system to impact the central Gulf Coast into the Mid South late next week, this may further stunt moisture return northward. Trends in model guidance and fuel dryness will continue to be monitored. ...Western/central Montana... As a surface low deepens in Alberta/Saskatchewan and a lee trough extends into the central High Plains, surface winds will increase in the lee of the terrain and into parts of central Montana. Downslope winds will lead to dry afternoon conditions on Monday. Upper-level winds over the area will be only modest and fuels are only moderately dry, however. Potential for critical fire weather appears too low for highlights, though at least a few hours of elevated conditions are possible. ..Wendt.. 09/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 PM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A seasonably strong trough will move into the Northwest early next week. This feature will dig into the Great Basin mid/late next week before lifting northeastward by the weekend. Fire weather concerns will be greatest within parts of the Great Basin beginning next week. Additional concerns are possible in the Plains depending on trends in model guidance and fuel receptiveness. ...Great Basin... Fire weather concerns will increase across the Great Basin on Tuesday as upper-level winds begin to increase across the Sierra. The spatial extent of stronger surface winds on Tuesday is a bit uncertain given the initially weak surface pressure pattern. Potential for critical fire weather will increase on Wednesday as the trough digs farther south and east and a deeper surface trough develops in the central/eastern Basin. Very dry conditions are possible along with winds that could exceed 20 mph, especially in southern Nevada into western Utah. ...Northwest... A few hours of elevated to near-critical conditions are possible in the lee of the Cascades as winds increase ahead of the surface front on Monday. RH may be on the marginal side, particularly with northward extent, as the influence of marine air will be on the increase. However, recent active fire behavior and ignitions from recent lightning suggest some fire weather concerns will be present with the modest increase in westerly surface winds. ...Central and Northern High Plains/Plains... As the strong trough moves into the Great Basin and eventually lifts northeastward mid/late next week, southerly winds across these regions will increase as a surface low and lee trough deepens. The typically drier GFS would suggest at least elevated fire weather conditions are possible, but there is low confidence in ensemble guidance as well as the ECMWF as to where and for how long near-critical/critical conditions may occur. Furthermore, fuels are not equally dry across all areas. In general, initial return flow cases tend to verify drier than expected and with the added potential for a tropical system to impact the central Gulf Coast into the Mid South late next week, this may further stunt moisture return northward. Trends in model guidance and fuel dryness will continue to be monitored. ...Western/central Montana... As a surface low deepens in Alberta/Saskatchewan and a lee trough extends into the central High Plains, surface winds will increase in the lee of the terrain and into parts of central Montana. Downslope winds will lead to dry afternoon conditions on Monday. Upper-level winds over the area will be only modest and fuels are only moderately dry, however. Potential for critical fire weather appears too low for highlights, though at least a few hours of elevated conditions are possible. ..Wendt.. 09/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 PM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A seasonably strong trough will move into the Northwest early next week. This feature will dig into the Great Basin mid/late next week before lifting northeastward by the weekend. Fire weather concerns will be greatest within parts of the Great Basin beginning next week. Additional concerns are possible in the Plains depending on trends in model guidance and fuel receptiveness. ...Great Basin... Fire weather concerns will increase across the Great Basin on Tuesday as upper-level winds begin to increase across the Sierra. The spatial extent of stronger surface winds on Tuesday is a bit uncertain given the initially weak surface pressure pattern. Potential for critical fire weather will increase on Wednesday as the trough digs farther south and east and a deeper surface trough develops in the central/eastern Basin. Very dry conditions are possible along with winds that could exceed 20 mph, especially in southern Nevada into western Utah. ...Northwest... A few hours of elevated to near-critical conditions are possible in the lee of the Cascades as winds increase ahead of the surface front on Monday. RH may be on the marginal side, particularly with northward extent, as the influence of marine air will be on the increase. However, recent active fire behavior and ignitions from recent lightning suggest some fire weather concerns will be present with the modest increase in westerly surface winds. ...Central and Northern High Plains/Plains... As the strong trough moves into the Great Basin and eventually lifts northeastward mid/late next week, southerly winds across these regions will increase as a surface low and lee trough deepens. The typically drier GFS would suggest at least elevated fire weather conditions are possible, but there is low confidence in ensemble guidance as well as the ECMWF as to where and for how long near-critical/critical conditions may occur. Furthermore, fuels are not equally dry across all areas. In general, initial return flow cases tend to verify drier than expected and with the added potential for a tropical system to impact the central Gulf Coast into the Mid South late next week, this may further stunt moisture return northward. Trends in model guidance and fuel dryness will continue to be monitored. ...Western/central Montana... As a surface low deepens in Alberta/Saskatchewan and a lee trough extends into the central High Plains, surface winds will increase in the lee of the terrain and into parts of central Montana. Downslope winds will lead to dry afternoon conditions on Monday. Upper-level winds over the area will be only modest and fuels are only moderately dry, however. Potential for critical fire weather appears too low for highlights, though at least a few hours of elevated conditions are possible. ..Wendt.. 09/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 PM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A seasonably strong trough will move into the Northwest early next week. This feature will dig into the Great Basin mid/late next week before lifting northeastward by the weekend. Fire weather concerns will be greatest within parts of the Great Basin beginning next week. Additional concerns are possible in the Plains depending on trends in model guidance and fuel receptiveness. ...Great Basin... Fire weather concerns will increase across the Great Basin on Tuesday as upper-level winds begin to increase across the Sierra. The spatial extent of stronger surface winds on Tuesday is a bit uncertain given the initially weak surface pressure pattern. Potential for critical fire weather will increase on Wednesday as the trough digs farther south and east and a deeper surface trough develops in the central/eastern Basin. Very dry conditions are possible along with winds that could exceed 20 mph, especially in southern Nevada into western Utah. ...Northwest... A few hours of elevated to near-critical conditions are possible in the lee of the Cascades as winds increase ahead of the surface front on Monday. RH may be on the marginal side, particularly with northward extent, as the influence of marine air will be on the increase. However, recent active fire behavior and ignitions from recent lightning suggest some fire weather concerns will be present with the modest increase in westerly surface winds. ...Central and Northern High Plains/Plains... As the strong trough moves into the Great Basin and eventually lifts northeastward mid/late next week, southerly winds across these regions will increase as a surface low and lee trough deepens. The typically drier GFS would suggest at least elevated fire weather conditions are possible, but there is low confidence in ensemble guidance as well as the ECMWF as to where and for how long near-critical/critical conditions may occur. Furthermore, fuels are not equally dry across all areas. In general, initial return flow cases tend to verify drier than expected and with the added potential for a tropical system to impact the central Gulf Coast into the Mid South late next week, this may further stunt moisture return northward. Trends in model guidance and fuel dryness will continue to be monitored. ...Western/central Montana... As a surface low deepens in Alberta/Saskatchewan and a lee trough extends into the central High Plains, surface winds will increase in the lee of the terrain and into parts of central Montana. Downslope winds will lead to dry afternoon conditions on Monday. Upper-level winds over the area will be only modest and fuels are only moderately dry, however. Potential for critical fire weather appears too low for highlights, though at least a few hours of elevated conditions are possible. ..Wendt.. 09/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 PM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A seasonably strong trough will move into the Northwest early next week. This feature will dig into the Great Basin mid/late next week before lifting northeastward by the weekend. Fire weather concerns will be greatest within parts of the Great Basin beginning next week. Additional concerns are possible in the Plains depending on trends in model guidance and fuel receptiveness. ...Great Basin... Fire weather concerns will increase across the Great Basin on Tuesday as upper-level winds begin to increase across the Sierra. The spatial extent of stronger surface winds on Tuesday is a bit uncertain given the initially weak surface pressure pattern. Potential for critical fire weather will increase on Wednesday as the trough digs farther south and east and a deeper surface trough develops in the central/eastern Basin. Very dry conditions are possible along with winds that could exceed 20 mph, especially in southern Nevada into western Utah. ...Northwest... A few hours of elevated to near-critical conditions are possible in the lee of the Cascades as winds increase ahead of the surface front on Monday. RH may be on the marginal side, particularly with northward extent, as the influence of marine air will be on the increase. However, recent active fire behavior and ignitions from recent lightning suggest some fire weather concerns will be present with the modest increase in westerly surface winds. ...Central and Northern High Plains/Plains... As the strong trough moves into the Great Basin and eventually lifts northeastward mid/late next week, southerly winds across these regions will increase as a surface low and lee trough deepens. The typically drier GFS would suggest at least elevated fire weather conditions are possible, but there is low confidence in ensemble guidance as well as the ECMWF as to where and for how long near-critical/critical conditions may occur. Furthermore, fuels are not equally dry across all areas. In general, initial return flow cases tend to verify drier than expected and with the added potential for a tropical system to impact the central Gulf Coast into the Mid South late next week, this may further stunt moisture return northward. Trends in model guidance and fuel dryness will continue to be monitored. ...Western/central Montana... As a surface low deepens in Alberta/Saskatchewan and a lee trough extends into the central High Plains, surface winds will increase in the lee of the terrain and into parts of central Montana. Downslope winds will lead to dry afternoon conditions on Monday. Upper-level winds over the area will be only modest and fuels are only moderately dry, however. Potential for critical fire weather appears too low for highlights, though at least a few hours of elevated conditions are possible. ..Wendt.. 09/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 PM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A seasonably strong trough will move into the Northwest early next week. This feature will dig into the Great Basin mid/late next week before lifting northeastward by the weekend. Fire weather concerns will be greatest within parts of the Great Basin beginning next week. Additional concerns are possible in the Plains depending on trends in model guidance and fuel receptiveness. ...Great Basin... Fire weather concerns will increase across the Great Basin on Tuesday as upper-level winds begin to increase across the Sierra. The spatial extent of stronger surface winds on Tuesday is a bit uncertain given the initially weak surface pressure pattern. Potential for critical fire weather will increase on Wednesday as the trough digs farther south and east and a deeper surface trough develops in the central/eastern Basin. Very dry conditions are possible along with winds that could exceed 20 mph, especially in southern Nevada into western Utah. ...Northwest... A few hours of elevated to near-critical conditions are possible in the lee of the Cascades as winds increase ahead of the surface front on Monday. RH may be on the marginal side, particularly with northward extent, as the influence of marine air will be on the increase. However, recent active fire behavior and ignitions from recent lightning suggest some fire weather concerns will be present with the modest increase in westerly surface winds. ...Central and Northern High Plains/Plains... As the strong trough moves into the Great Basin and eventually lifts northeastward mid/late next week, southerly winds across these regions will increase as a surface low and lee trough deepens. The typically drier GFS would suggest at least elevated fire weather conditions are possible, but there is low confidence in ensemble guidance as well as the ECMWF as to where and for how long near-critical/critical conditions may occur. Furthermore, fuels are not equally dry across all areas. In general, initial return flow cases tend to verify drier than expected and with the added potential for a tropical system to impact the central Gulf Coast into the Mid South late next week, this may further stunt moisture return northward. Trends in model guidance and fuel dryness will continue to be monitored. ...Western/central Montana... As a surface low deepens in Alberta/Saskatchewan and a lee trough extends into the central High Plains, surface winds will increase in the lee of the terrain and into parts of central Montana. Downslope winds will lead to dry afternoon conditions on Monday. Upper-level winds over the area will be only modest and fuels are only moderately dry, however. Potential for critical fire weather appears too low for highlights, though at least a few hours of elevated conditions are possible. ..Wendt.. 09/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast today, though a few strong gusts could accompany the more robust storms. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made to the outlook with this update. In particular, the General Thunder line was trimmed behind the frontal rain band and associated wind shift in the Northeast, where cool post-frontal conditions have generally depleted instability. Updrafts within this band have remained too shallow/weak for an appreciable lightning risk thus far. However, an isolated strike still cannot be ruled out, especially over portions of eastern NJ and far southeastern NY/Long Island -- where filtered boundary-layer heating has occurred amid middle 60s dewpoints. Isolated/embedded strong gusts also remain possible (earlier 44 mph gust in eastern PA), though the weak/shallow updrafts (and associated downdrafts) should continue to limit the severe risk. Elsewhere, severe potential still appears too localized and/or marginal for severe probabilities. See the previous discussion below for details. ..Weinman.. 09/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024/ ...Northeast... A cold front will move steadily east across the northeast today, accompanied by showers and thunderstorms. Extensive cloud cover in advance of the front will tend to limit heating/destabilization, however modest MLCAPE (on the order of 250-500 J/kg) may develop from the northern Delmarva Peninsula north into southeast NY this afternoon. Ascent with an upper-level trough will continue to move east in tandem with the front, and scattered thunderstorms may develop this afternoon with some potential for locally gusty winds. Weak instability and poor low-level lapse rates should limit severe potential. ...Central High Plains... Low-level moisture will be generally modest east of a surface trough that will extend north-south across eastern portions of WY/CO this afternoon. Still, lower 50s surface dew points and steep mid-level lapse rates should contribute to MLCAPE of 750-locally near 1000 J/kg. Isolated thunderstorms may form and move southeast within a northwest mid-level flow environment late this afternoon/evening, and a deep/well-mixed boundary layer suggests some potential for localized strong wind gusts. Thunderstorm potential may extend eastward into western portions of NE/KS this evening as a low-level jet strengthens. The overall coverage of any severe potential remains too low to introduce severe probabilities. ...Interior Northwest... The potential for isolated thunderstorms, already ongoing this morning over south-central OR, will continue today as modest large-scale ascent associated with a mid-level trough overspreads inland areas of the Pacific Northwest. These storms may produce limited rainfall, exacerbating fire weather concerns. ...Lower Colorado River Valley and Vicinity... Strong heating will contribute to scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon, and 12z hi-res guidance suggests that a couple of stronger storms or small clusters may have the potential for gusty outflow winds within a hot/well-mixed boundary layer. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast today, though a few strong gusts could accompany the more robust storms. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made to the outlook with this update. In particular, the General Thunder line was trimmed behind the frontal rain band and associated wind shift in the Northeast, where cool post-frontal conditions have generally depleted instability. Updrafts within this band have remained too shallow/weak for an appreciable lightning risk thus far. However, an isolated strike still cannot be ruled out, especially over portions of eastern NJ and far southeastern NY/Long Island -- where filtered boundary-layer heating has occurred amid middle 60s dewpoints. Isolated/embedded strong gusts also remain possible (earlier 44 mph gust in eastern PA), though the weak/shallow updrafts (and associated downdrafts) should continue to limit the severe risk. Elsewhere, severe potential still appears too localized and/or marginal for severe probabilities. See the previous discussion below for details. ..Weinman.. 09/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024/ ...Northeast... A cold front will move steadily east across the northeast today, accompanied by showers and thunderstorms. Extensive cloud cover in advance of the front will tend to limit heating/destabilization, however modest MLCAPE (on the order of 250-500 J/kg) may develop from the northern Delmarva Peninsula north into southeast NY this afternoon. Ascent with an upper-level trough will continue to move east in tandem with the front, and scattered thunderstorms may develop this afternoon with some potential for locally gusty winds. Weak instability and poor low-level lapse rates should limit severe potential. ...Central High Plains... Low-level moisture will be generally modest east of a surface trough that will extend north-south across eastern portions of WY/CO this afternoon. Still, lower 50s surface dew points and steep mid-level lapse rates should contribute to MLCAPE of 750-locally near 1000 J/kg. Isolated thunderstorms may form and move southeast within a northwest mid-level flow environment late this afternoon/evening, and a deep/well-mixed boundary layer suggests some potential for localized strong wind gusts. Thunderstorm potential may extend eastward into western portions of NE/KS this evening as a low-level jet strengthens. The overall coverage of any severe potential remains too low to introduce severe probabilities. ...Interior Northwest... The potential for isolated thunderstorms, already ongoing this morning over south-central OR, will continue today as modest large-scale ascent associated with a mid-level trough overspreads inland areas of the Pacific Northwest. These storms may produce limited rainfall, exacerbating fire weather concerns. ...Lower Colorado River Valley and Vicinity... Strong heating will contribute to scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon, and 12z hi-res guidance suggests that a couple of stronger storms or small clusters may have the potential for gusty outflow winds within a hot/well-mixed boundary layer. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast today, though a few strong gusts could accompany the more robust storms. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made to the outlook with this update. In particular, the General Thunder line was trimmed behind the frontal rain band and associated wind shift in the Northeast, where cool post-frontal conditions have generally depleted instability. Updrafts within this band have remained too shallow/weak for an appreciable lightning risk thus far. However, an isolated strike still cannot be ruled out, especially over portions of eastern NJ and far southeastern NY/Long Island -- where filtered boundary-layer heating has occurred amid middle 60s dewpoints. Isolated/embedded strong gusts also remain possible (earlier 44 mph gust in eastern PA), though the weak/shallow updrafts (and associated downdrafts) should continue to limit the severe risk. Elsewhere, severe potential still appears too localized and/or marginal for severe probabilities. See the previous discussion below for details. ..Weinman.. 09/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024/ ...Northeast... A cold front will move steadily east across the northeast today, accompanied by showers and thunderstorms. Extensive cloud cover in advance of the front will tend to limit heating/destabilization, however modest MLCAPE (on the order of 250-500 J/kg) may develop from the northern Delmarva Peninsula north into southeast NY this afternoon. Ascent with an upper-level trough will continue to move east in tandem with the front, and scattered thunderstorms may develop this afternoon with some potential for locally gusty winds. Weak instability and poor low-level lapse rates should limit severe potential. ...Central High Plains... Low-level moisture will be generally modest east of a surface trough that will extend north-south across eastern portions of WY/CO this afternoon. Still, lower 50s surface dew points and steep mid-level lapse rates should contribute to MLCAPE of 750-locally near 1000 J/kg. Isolated thunderstorms may form and move southeast within a northwest mid-level flow environment late this afternoon/evening, and a deep/well-mixed boundary layer suggests some potential for localized strong wind gusts. Thunderstorm potential may extend eastward into western portions of NE/KS this evening as a low-level jet strengthens. The overall coverage of any severe potential remains too low to introduce severe probabilities. ...Interior Northwest... The potential for isolated thunderstorms, already ongoing this morning over south-central OR, will continue today as modest large-scale ascent associated with a mid-level trough overspreads inland areas of the Pacific Northwest. These storms may produce limited rainfall, exacerbating fire weather concerns. ...Lower Colorado River Valley and Vicinity... Strong heating will contribute to scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon, and 12z hi-res guidance suggests that a couple of stronger storms or small clusters may have the potential for gusty outflow winds within a hot/well-mixed boundary layer. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast today, though a few strong gusts could accompany the more robust storms. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made to the outlook with this update. In particular, the General Thunder line was trimmed behind the frontal rain band and associated wind shift in the Northeast, where cool post-frontal conditions have generally depleted instability. Updrafts within this band have remained too shallow/weak for an appreciable lightning risk thus far. However, an isolated strike still cannot be ruled out, especially over portions of eastern NJ and far southeastern NY/Long Island -- where filtered boundary-layer heating has occurred amid middle 60s dewpoints. Isolated/embedded strong gusts also remain possible (earlier 44 mph gust in eastern PA), though the weak/shallow updrafts (and associated downdrafts) should continue to limit the severe risk. Elsewhere, severe potential still appears too localized and/or marginal for severe probabilities. See the previous discussion below for details. ..Weinman.. 09/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024/ ...Northeast... A cold front will move steadily east across the northeast today, accompanied by showers and thunderstorms. Extensive cloud cover in advance of the front will tend to limit heating/destabilization, however modest MLCAPE (on the order of 250-500 J/kg) may develop from the northern Delmarva Peninsula north into southeast NY this afternoon. Ascent with an upper-level trough will continue to move east in tandem with the front, and scattered thunderstorms may develop this afternoon with some potential for locally gusty winds. Weak instability and poor low-level lapse rates should limit severe potential. ...Central High Plains... Low-level moisture will be generally modest east of a surface trough that will extend north-south across eastern portions of WY/CO this afternoon. Still, lower 50s surface dew points and steep mid-level lapse rates should contribute to MLCAPE of 750-locally near 1000 J/kg. Isolated thunderstorms may form and move southeast within a northwest mid-level flow environment late this afternoon/evening, and a deep/well-mixed boundary layer suggests some potential for localized strong wind gusts. Thunderstorm potential may extend eastward into western portions of NE/KS this evening as a low-level jet strengthens. The overall coverage of any severe potential remains too low to introduce severe probabilities. ...Interior Northwest... The potential for isolated thunderstorms, already ongoing this morning over south-central OR, will continue today as modest large-scale ascent associated with a mid-level trough overspreads inland areas of the Pacific Northwest. These storms may produce limited rainfall, exacerbating fire weather concerns. ...Lower Colorado River Valley and Vicinity... Strong heating will contribute to scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon, and 12z hi-res guidance suggests that a couple of stronger storms or small clusters may have the potential for gusty outflow winds within a hot/well-mixed boundary layer. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast today, though a few strong gusts could accompany the more robust storms. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made to the outlook with this update. In particular, the General Thunder line was trimmed behind the frontal rain band and associated wind shift in the Northeast, where cool post-frontal conditions have generally depleted instability. Updrafts within this band have remained too shallow/weak for an appreciable lightning risk thus far. However, an isolated strike still cannot be ruled out, especially over portions of eastern NJ and far southeastern NY/Long Island -- where filtered boundary-layer heating has occurred amid middle 60s dewpoints. Isolated/embedded strong gusts also remain possible (earlier 44 mph gust in eastern PA), though the weak/shallow updrafts (and associated downdrafts) should continue to limit the severe risk. Elsewhere, severe potential still appears too localized and/or marginal for severe probabilities. See the previous discussion below for details. ..Weinman.. 09/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024/ ...Northeast... A cold front will move steadily east across the northeast today, accompanied by showers and thunderstorms. Extensive cloud cover in advance of the front will tend to limit heating/destabilization, however modest MLCAPE (on the order of 250-500 J/kg) may develop from the northern Delmarva Peninsula north into southeast NY this afternoon. Ascent with an upper-level trough will continue to move east in tandem with the front, and scattered thunderstorms may develop this afternoon with some potential for locally gusty winds. Weak instability and poor low-level lapse rates should limit severe potential. ...Central High Plains... Low-level moisture will be generally modest east of a surface trough that will extend north-south across eastern portions of WY/CO this afternoon. Still, lower 50s surface dew points and steep mid-level lapse rates should contribute to MLCAPE of 750-locally near 1000 J/kg. Isolated thunderstorms may form and move southeast within a northwest mid-level flow environment late this afternoon/evening, and a deep/well-mixed boundary layer suggests some potential for localized strong wind gusts. Thunderstorm potential may extend eastward into western portions of NE/KS this evening as a low-level jet strengthens. The overall coverage of any severe potential remains too low to introduce severe probabilities. ...Interior Northwest... The potential for isolated thunderstorms, already ongoing this morning over south-central OR, will continue today as modest large-scale ascent associated with a mid-level trough overspreads inland areas of the Pacific Northwest. These storms may produce limited rainfall, exacerbating fire weather concerns. ...Lower Colorado River Valley and Vicinity... Strong heating will contribute to scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon, and 12z hi-res guidance suggests that a couple of stronger storms or small clusters may have the potential for gusty outflow winds within a hot/well-mixed boundary layer. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast today, though a few strong gusts could accompany the more robust storms. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made to the outlook with this update. In particular, the General Thunder line was trimmed behind the frontal rain band and associated wind shift in the Northeast, where cool post-frontal conditions have generally depleted instability. Updrafts within this band have remained too shallow/weak for an appreciable lightning risk thus far. However, an isolated strike still cannot be ruled out, especially over portions of eastern NJ and far southeastern NY/Long Island -- where filtered boundary-layer heating has occurred amid middle 60s dewpoints. Isolated/embedded strong gusts also remain possible (earlier 44 mph gust in eastern PA), though the weak/shallow updrafts (and associated downdrafts) should continue to limit the severe risk. Elsewhere, severe potential still appears too localized and/or marginal for severe probabilities. See the previous discussion below for details. ..Weinman.. 09/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024/ ...Northeast... A cold front will move steadily east across the northeast today, accompanied by showers and thunderstorms. Extensive cloud cover in advance of the front will tend to limit heating/destabilization, however modest MLCAPE (on the order of 250-500 J/kg) may develop from the northern Delmarva Peninsula north into southeast NY this afternoon. Ascent with an upper-level trough will continue to move east in tandem with the front, and scattered thunderstorms may develop this afternoon with some potential for locally gusty winds. Weak instability and poor low-level lapse rates should limit severe potential. ...Central High Plains... Low-level moisture will be generally modest east of a surface trough that will extend north-south across eastern portions of WY/CO this afternoon. Still, lower 50s surface dew points and steep mid-level lapse rates should contribute to MLCAPE of 750-locally near 1000 J/kg. Isolated thunderstorms may form and move southeast within a northwest mid-level flow environment late this afternoon/evening, and a deep/well-mixed boundary layer suggests some potential for localized strong wind gusts. Thunderstorm potential may extend eastward into western portions of NE/KS this evening as a low-level jet strengthens. The overall coverage of any severe potential remains too low to introduce severe probabilities. ...Interior Northwest... The potential for isolated thunderstorms, already ongoing this morning over south-central OR, will continue today as modest large-scale ascent associated with a mid-level trough overspreads inland areas of the Pacific Northwest. These storms may produce limited rainfall, exacerbating fire weather concerns. ...Lower Colorado River Valley and Vicinity... Strong heating will contribute to scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon, and 12z hi-res guidance suggests that a couple of stronger storms or small clusters may have the potential for gusty outflow winds within a hot/well-mixed boundary layer. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast today, though a few strong gusts could accompany the more robust storms. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made to the outlook with this update. In particular, the General Thunder line was trimmed behind the frontal rain band and associated wind shift in the Northeast, where cool post-frontal conditions have generally depleted instability. Updrafts within this band have remained too shallow/weak for an appreciable lightning risk thus far. However, an isolated strike still cannot be ruled out, especially over portions of eastern NJ and far southeastern NY/Long Island -- where filtered boundary-layer heating has occurred amid middle 60s dewpoints. Isolated/embedded strong gusts also remain possible (earlier 44 mph gust in eastern PA), though the weak/shallow updrafts (and associated downdrafts) should continue to limit the severe risk. Elsewhere, severe potential still appears too localized and/or marginal for severe probabilities. See the previous discussion below for details. ..Weinman.. 09/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024/ ...Northeast... A cold front will move steadily east across the northeast today, accompanied by showers and thunderstorms. Extensive cloud cover in advance of the front will tend to limit heating/destabilization, however modest MLCAPE (on the order of 250-500 J/kg) may develop from the northern Delmarva Peninsula north into southeast NY this afternoon. Ascent with an upper-level trough will continue to move east in tandem with the front, and scattered thunderstorms may develop this afternoon with some potential for locally gusty winds. Weak instability and poor low-level lapse rates should limit severe potential. ...Central High Plains... Low-level moisture will be generally modest east of a surface trough that will extend north-south across eastern portions of WY/CO this afternoon. Still, lower 50s surface dew points and steep mid-level lapse rates should contribute to MLCAPE of 750-locally near 1000 J/kg. Isolated thunderstorms may form and move southeast within a northwest mid-level flow environment late this afternoon/evening, and a deep/well-mixed boundary layer suggests some potential for localized strong wind gusts. Thunderstorm potential may extend eastward into western portions of NE/KS this evening as a low-level jet strengthens. The overall coverage of any severe potential remains too low to introduce severe probabilities. ...Interior Northwest... The potential for isolated thunderstorms, already ongoing this morning over south-central OR, will continue today as modest large-scale ascent associated with a mid-level trough overspreads inland areas of the Pacific Northwest. These storms may produce limited rainfall, exacerbating fire weather concerns. ...Lower Colorado River Valley and Vicinity... Strong heating will contribute to scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon, and 12z hi-res guidance suggests that a couple of stronger storms or small clusters may have the potential for gusty outflow winds within a hot/well-mixed boundary layer. Read more