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Issued at 500 PM MST Fri Sep 13 2024 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 132347 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ileana Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 500 PM MST Fri Sep 13 2024 ...CENTER OF ILEANA MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 500 PM MST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.0N 109.4W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM ENE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Santa Fe southward * East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from San Evaristo southward A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico north of San Evaristo to Loreto * Mainland Mexico from Topolobampo to Huatabampito A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, and Sonora should closely monitor the progress of Ileana. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM MST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 109.4 West. Ileana is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slow northward to north-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, Ileana is forecast to move near or over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula this evening, and over the southern and central Gulf of California this weekend. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Ileana is expected to weaken to a tropical depression on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ileana can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Through this weekend, Tropical Storm Ileana may produce rainfall of 4 to 6 inches, with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches, across southern Baja California. For northwest coastal Sinaloa, Tropical Storm Ileana may result between 6 to 8 inches with localized higher amounts up to 12 inches. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Ileana, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Ileana, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the warning area in southern Baja California Peninsula through this evening and into early Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by early Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Bucci

...CENTER OF ILEANA MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... As of 5:00 PM MST Fri Sep 13 the center of Ileana was located near 23.0, -109.4 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 132312
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Sep 13 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ileana, located near the southern tip of the Baja California
Peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

No watches are valid as of Fri Sep 13 22:35:01 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Sep 13 22:35:01 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z A strong upper-level trough will amplify across the western CONUS late this weekend and early next week. This will overspread some dry and breezy conditions across portions of the southern Great Basin. Some Elevated to Critical fire-weather conditions may be possible Sunday to Tuesday with the worst conditions likely on Monday as the strongest mid-level flow overspreads the region. Critical probabilities have not been added at this time due to only marginally dry fuels in the region that should be most affected by these stronger winds and only marginally low relative humidity given a Pacific/monsoonal moisture plume which will advect northward on Monday. Otherwise, wetting rainfall is forecast across much of the CONUS during the extended forecast period which should significantly lessen fire weather concerns by later in September. ..Bentley.. 09/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z A strong upper-level trough will amplify across the western CONUS late this weekend and early next week. This will overspread some dry and breezy conditions across portions of the southern Great Basin. Some Elevated to Critical fire-weather conditions may be possible Sunday to Tuesday with the worst conditions likely on Monday as the strongest mid-level flow overspreads the region. Critical probabilities have not been added at this time due to only marginally dry fuels in the region that should be most affected by these stronger winds and only marginally low relative humidity given a Pacific/monsoonal moisture plume which will advect northward on Monday. Otherwise, wetting rainfall is forecast across much of the CONUS during the extended forecast period which should significantly lessen fire weather concerns by later in September. ..Bentley.. 09/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z A strong upper-level trough will amplify across the western CONUS late this weekend and early next week. This will overspread some dry and breezy conditions across portions of the southern Great Basin. Some Elevated to Critical fire-weather conditions may be possible Sunday to Tuesday with the worst conditions likely on Monday as the strongest mid-level flow overspreads the region. Critical probabilities have not been added at this time due to only marginally dry fuels in the region that should be most affected by these stronger winds and only marginally low relative humidity given a Pacific/monsoonal moisture plume which will advect northward on Monday. Otherwise, wetting rainfall is forecast across much of the CONUS during the extended forecast period which should significantly lessen fire weather concerns by later in September. ..Bentley.. 09/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z A strong upper-level trough will amplify across the western CONUS late this weekend and early next week. This will overspread some dry and breezy conditions across portions of the southern Great Basin. Some Elevated to Critical fire-weather conditions may be possible Sunday to Tuesday with the worst conditions likely on Monday as the strongest mid-level flow overspreads the region. Critical probabilities have not been added at this time due to only marginally dry fuels in the region that should be most affected by these stronger winds and only marginally low relative humidity given a Pacific/monsoonal moisture plume which will advect northward on Monday. Otherwise, wetting rainfall is forecast across much of the CONUS during the extended forecast period which should significantly lessen fire weather concerns by later in September. ..Bentley.. 09/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z A strong upper-level trough will amplify across the western CONUS late this weekend and early next week. This will overspread some dry and breezy conditions across portions of the southern Great Basin. Some Elevated to Critical fire-weather conditions may be possible Sunday to Tuesday with the worst conditions likely on Monday as the strongest mid-level flow overspreads the region. Critical probabilities have not been added at this time due to only marginally dry fuels in the region that should be most affected by these stronger winds and only marginally low relative humidity given a Pacific/monsoonal moisture plume which will advect northward on Monday. Otherwise, wetting rainfall is forecast across much of the CONUS during the extended forecast period which should significantly lessen fire weather concerns by later in September. ..Bentley.. 09/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z A strong upper-level trough will amplify across the western CONUS late this weekend and early next week. This will overspread some dry and breezy conditions across portions of the southern Great Basin. Some Elevated to Critical fire-weather conditions may be possible Sunday to Tuesday with the worst conditions likely on Monday as the strongest mid-level flow overspreads the region. Critical probabilities have not been added at this time due to only marginally dry fuels in the region that should be most affected by these stronger winds and only marginally low relative humidity given a Pacific/monsoonal moisture plume which will advect northward on Monday. Otherwise, wetting rainfall is forecast across much of the CONUS during the extended forecast period which should significantly lessen fire weather concerns by later in September. ..Bentley.. 09/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z A strong upper-level trough will amplify across the western CONUS late this weekend and early next week. This will overspread some dry and breezy conditions across portions of the southern Great Basin. Some Elevated to Critical fire-weather conditions may be possible Sunday to Tuesday with the worst conditions likely on Monday as the strongest mid-level flow overspreads the region. Critical probabilities have not been added at this time due to only marginally dry fuels in the region that should be most affected by these stronger winds and only marginally low relative humidity given a Pacific/monsoonal moisture plume which will advect northward on Monday. Otherwise, wetting rainfall is forecast across much of the CONUS during the extended forecast period which should significantly lessen fire weather concerns by later in September. ..Bentley.. 09/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z A strong upper-level trough will amplify across the western CONUS late this weekend and early next week. This will overspread some dry and breezy conditions across portions of the southern Great Basin. Some Elevated to Critical fire-weather conditions may be possible Sunday to Tuesday with the worst conditions likely on Monday as the strongest mid-level flow overspreads the region. Critical probabilities have not been added at this time due to only marginally dry fuels in the region that should be most affected by these stronger winds and only marginally low relative humidity given a Pacific/monsoonal moisture plume which will advect northward on Monday. Otherwise, wetting rainfall is forecast across much of the CONUS during the extended forecast period which should significantly lessen fire weather concerns by later in September. ..Bentley.. 09/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2024 20:49:54 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2024 21:28:46 GMT

Issued at 200 PM MST Fri Sep 13 2024 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 132041 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 200 PM MST Fri Sep 13 2024 Satellite imagery and radar data from Cabo San Lucas indicate that Ileana remains poorly organized with poorly-defined convective banding around the elongated center. The latest satellite and radar imagery suggests the center is just east of the latest burst of convection south of Cabo San Lucas, and this is in reasonable agreement with positions from recently received ASCAT data. The scatterometer passes show 30-35 kt winds to the east of the center, and based on this and the possibility of undersampling, the initial intensity is held at a possibly generous 40 kt. The scatterometer and and an earlier microwave image show that Ileana is moving slower than thought previously, and the initial motion is now 345/6. A slow north-northwestward to northward motion should continue until the cyclone dissipates, with the center passing near or over the southern end of the Baja California peninsula during the next 6-12 h and then moving over the central and southern Gulf of California. The track guidance shifted a little to the east of the previous guidance, and the new forecast track is a little to the east of the previous track. The cyclone should be moving into an environment of increasing southwesterly to westerly shear and a drier airmass as it moves into the Gulf of California. The intensity guidance is in good agreement that Ileana should weaken, and the new intensity forecast follows this trend. The forecast now calls for the system to become a depression by 36 h, a remnant low by 48 h, and dissipate by 72 h. It is possible that Ileana could decay to a remnant low by 36 h, as the GFS and ECMWF forecast the associated convection to dissipate by that time. Key Messages: 1. Tropical Storm Ileana will bring heavy rainfall to portions of western Mexico and southern Baja California through this weekend. This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding and mudslides to portions of the area. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in portions of Baja California Sur during the next several hours where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 22.7N 109.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 23.7N 109.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 24.9N 109.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 25.8N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 26.6N 110.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 16/0600Z 27.5N 111.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 200 PM MST Fri Sep 13 2024 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 132040 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ileana Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 200 PM MST Fri Sep 13 2024 ...CENTER OF ILEANA MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.7N 109.4W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Santa Fe southward * East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from San Evaristo southward A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico north of San Evaristo to Loreto * Mainland Mexico from Topolobampo to Huatabampito A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, and Sonora should closely monitor the progress of Ileana. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 109.4 West. Ileana is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slow north-northwestward to northward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, Ileana is expected to move near or over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula this afternoon and evening, and over the southern and central Gulf of California this weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Ileana is expected to weaken to a tropical depression on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ileana can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Through this weekend, Tropical Storm Ileana may produce rainfall of 4 to 6 inches, with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches, across southern Baja California. For northwest coastal Sinaloa, Tropical Storm Ileana may result between 6 to 8 inches with localized higher amounts up to 12 inches. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Ileana, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Ileana, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula within the warning area during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by early Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 500 PM MST. Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Beven

...CENTER OF ILEANA MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... As of 2:00 PM MST Fri Sep 13 the center of Ileana was located near 22.7, -109.4 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 13 2024 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 132040 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092024 2100 UTC FRI SEP 13 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN JOSE CABO 34 12 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) LA PAZ 34 4 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LORETO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUAYMAS 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 13 2024 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 132040 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092024 2100 UTC FRI SEP 13 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 109.4W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 45SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 109.4W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 109.2W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 23.7N 109.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 24.9N 109.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 25.8N 110.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 26.6N 110.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 27.5N 111.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 109.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 14/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal/isolated tornado threat should continue through this afternoon across parts of Alabama, western Georgia, and middle Tennessee. Isolated damaging winds may also occur. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 09/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024/ ...Southeast... The remnant surface circulation associated with Francine located over AR late this morning is forecast to continue filling/weakening through the day as a weak mid-level trough across the Mid-South moves slowly eastward. Surface observations/analysis indicate a front is draped northwest to southeast from western TN into northern/central AL and southern GA. This boundary may serve as a focus for additional convective development this afternoon, even though the overall system is weakening. Cloud cover remains prevalent across much of this region, which should hinder daytime heating to some extent. Poor mid-level lapse rates are also present, which will likely limit updraft intensities. Even with a marginal thermodynamic environment expected, modest but sufficient low-level shear will persist through at least early afternoon. This may support occasional low-level updraft rotation, and the threat for a tornado or two. Otherwise, occasional damaging winds may also occur with any robust thunderstorm that can persist. This isolated/marginal severe threat should remain focused along/near the surface front, before waning this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Read more