Aggregator

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 14 2024 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 140852 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092024 0900 UTC SAT SEP 14 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GUAYMAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HUATABAMPO 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LOS MOCHIS 34 6 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 14 2024 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 140851 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092024 0900 UTC SAT SEP 14 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 109.2W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 109.2W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 109.2W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 25.1N 109.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 25.9N 109.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 26.6N 110.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 27.4N 111.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.3N 109.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 14/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4... Severe potential may be maximized on D4/Tuesday, but persistent predictability concerns preclude a 15 percent highlight. A mid-level low centered the ID/NV/UT border area at 12Z Tuesday should advance north-northeast towards the MT/AB/SK border area by 12Z Wednesday. Guidance has improved consistency with this track. But models remain inconsistent with the amplitude of the meridional mid-level jet to the east of the low, and spatial/temporal spread appears to have increased with evolution of surface cyclogenesis over the northern High Plains. It is plausible that a meso-alpha scale corridor of 15 percent severe probabilities may be warranted in later outlooks, somewhere in the eastern MT/WY to western Dakotas vicinity. The large spread in guidance with the development of a near-coastal subtropical/tropical cyclone on D3 renders minimal predictability for D4 severe potential in NC and the Lower Mid-Atlantic region. ...D6-8... Latest guidance has trended towards a slower, positive-tilt large-scale trough evolution over the West, as the next upstream shortwave impulse digs back into the Southwest. A moderate mid-level southwesterly flow regime and persistent moderate to well-above normal temperatures may yield daily bouts of low-probability severe from the south-central High Plains to the Upper Midwest. Despite typical predictability concerns in this time frame, overall setup appears unlikely to support a synoptically evident severe episode. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4... Severe potential may be maximized on D4/Tuesday, but persistent predictability concerns preclude a 15 percent highlight. A mid-level low centered the ID/NV/UT border area at 12Z Tuesday should advance north-northeast towards the MT/AB/SK border area by 12Z Wednesday. Guidance has improved consistency with this track. But models remain inconsistent with the amplitude of the meridional mid-level jet to the east of the low, and spatial/temporal spread appears to have increased with evolution of surface cyclogenesis over the northern High Plains. It is plausible that a meso-alpha scale corridor of 15 percent severe probabilities may be warranted in later outlooks, somewhere in the eastern MT/WY to western Dakotas vicinity. The large spread in guidance with the development of a near-coastal subtropical/tropical cyclone on D3 renders minimal predictability for D4 severe potential in NC and the Lower Mid-Atlantic region. ...D6-8... Latest guidance has trended towards a slower, positive-tilt large-scale trough evolution over the West, as the next upstream shortwave impulse digs back into the Southwest. A moderate mid-level southwesterly flow regime and persistent moderate to well-above normal temperatures may yield daily bouts of low-probability severe from the south-central High Plains to the Upper Midwest. Despite typical predictability concerns in this time frame, overall setup appears unlikely to support a synoptically evident severe episode. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4... Severe potential may be maximized on D4/Tuesday, but persistent predictability concerns preclude a 15 percent highlight. A mid-level low centered the ID/NV/UT border area at 12Z Tuesday should advance north-northeast towards the MT/AB/SK border area by 12Z Wednesday. Guidance has improved consistency with this track. But models remain inconsistent with the amplitude of the meridional mid-level jet to the east of the low, and spatial/temporal spread appears to have increased with evolution of surface cyclogenesis over the northern High Plains. It is plausible that a meso-alpha scale corridor of 15 percent severe probabilities may be warranted in later outlooks, somewhere in the eastern MT/WY to western Dakotas vicinity. The large spread in guidance with the development of a near-coastal subtropical/tropical cyclone on D3 renders minimal predictability for D4 severe potential in NC and the Lower Mid-Atlantic region. ...D6-8... Latest guidance has trended towards a slower, positive-tilt large-scale trough evolution over the West, as the next upstream shortwave impulse digs back into the Southwest. A moderate mid-level southwesterly flow regime and persistent moderate to well-above normal temperatures may yield daily bouts of low-probability severe from the south-central High Plains to the Upper Midwest. Despite typical predictability concerns in this time frame, overall setup appears unlikely to support a synoptically evident severe episode. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4... Severe potential may be maximized on D4/Tuesday, but persistent predictability concerns preclude a 15 percent highlight. A mid-level low centered the ID/NV/UT border area at 12Z Tuesday should advance north-northeast towards the MT/AB/SK border area by 12Z Wednesday. Guidance has improved consistency with this track. But models remain inconsistent with the amplitude of the meridional mid-level jet to the east of the low, and spatial/temporal spread appears to have increased with evolution of surface cyclogenesis over the northern High Plains. It is plausible that a meso-alpha scale corridor of 15 percent severe probabilities may be warranted in later outlooks, somewhere in the eastern MT/WY to western Dakotas vicinity. The large spread in guidance with the development of a near-coastal subtropical/tropical cyclone on D3 renders minimal predictability for D4 severe potential in NC and the Lower Mid-Atlantic region. ...D6-8... Latest guidance has trended towards a slower, positive-tilt large-scale trough evolution over the West, as the next upstream shortwave impulse digs back into the Southwest. A moderate mid-level southwesterly flow regime and persistent moderate to well-above normal temperatures may yield daily bouts of low-probability severe from the south-central High Plains to the Upper Midwest. Despite typical predictability concerns in this time frame, overall setup appears unlikely to support a synoptically evident severe episode. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4... Severe potential may be maximized on D4/Tuesday, but persistent predictability concerns preclude a 15 percent highlight. A mid-level low centered the ID/NV/UT border area at 12Z Tuesday should advance north-northeast towards the MT/AB/SK border area by 12Z Wednesday. Guidance has improved consistency with this track. But models remain inconsistent with the amplitude of the meridional mid-level jet to the east of the low, and spatial/temporal spread appears to have increased with evolution of surface cyclogenesis over the northern High Plains. It is plausible that a meso-alpha scale corridor of 15 percent severe probabilities may be warranted in later outlooks, somewhere in the eastern MT/WY to western Dakotas vicinity. The large spread in guidance with the development of a near-coastal subtropical/tropical cyclone on D3 renders minimal predictability for D4 severe potential in NC and the Lower Mid-Atlantic region. ...D6-8... Latest guidance has trended towards a slower, positive-tilt large-scale trough evolution over the West, as the next upstream shortwave impulse digs back into the Southwest. A moderate mid-level southwesterly flow regime and persistent moderate to well-above normal temperatures may yield daily bouts of low-probability severe from the south-central High Plains to the Upper Midwest. Despite typical predictability concerns in this time frame, overall setup appears unlikely to support a synoptically evident severe episode. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4... Severe potential may be maximized on D4/Tuesday, but persistent predictability concerns preclude a 15 percent highlight. A mid-level low centered the ID/NV/UT border area at 12Z Tuesday should advance north-northeast towards the MT/AB/SK border area by 12Z Wednesday. Guidance has improved consistency with this track. But models remain inconsistent with the amplitude of the meridional mid-level jet to the east of the low, and spatial/temporal spread appears to have increased with evolution of surface cyclogenesis over the northern High Plains. It is plausible that a meso-alpha scale corridor of 15 percent severe probabilities may be warranted in later outlooks, somewhere in the eastern MT/WY to western Dakotas vicinity. The large spread in guidance with the development of a near-coastal subtropical/tropical cyclone on D3 renders minimal predictability for D4 severe potential in NC and the Lower Mid-Atlantic region. ...D6-8... Latest guidance has trended towards a slower, positive-tilt large-scale trough evolution over the West, as the next upstream shortwave impulse digs back into the Southwest. A moderate mid-level southwesterly flow regime and persistent moderate to well-above normal temperatures may yield daily bouts of low-probability severe from the south-central High Plains to the Upper Midwest. Despite typical predictability concerns in this time frame, overall setup appears unlikely to support a synoptically evident severe episode. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN TO FOUR CORNERS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts and small to marginally severe hail will be possible on Monday afternoon to early evening across parts of the eastern Great Basin to Four Corners. ...Eastern Great Basin to the Four Corners... An amplified closed mid/upper low over northern/central CA at 12Z Monday should initially move east before curling northeast Monday night towards the NV/UT/ID border area. This will occur in response to a vigorous mid-level jet translating through the basal portion of the large-scale trough across the Desert Southwest into the eastern Great Basin. Surface cyclogenesis should be induced near the UT/NV border area, with a predominant meridional deep-layer flow regime near/just ahead of the low. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop as modest steepening of mid-level lapse rates overspreads a deepening boundary layer during the afternoon. The strengthening synoptic flow regime coupled with inverted-v thermodynamic profiles west of the Wasatch Range may yield sporadic severe gusts with low-topped, high-based convection. Farther southeast towards the Four Corners, a more southwesterly mid to upper-flow regime should yield hodograph elongation, conditionally supporting splitting supercells. Warmer mid-level temperatures and correspondingly weaker lapse rates should temper parcel acceleration to an extent, but this may be offset by somewhat higher PW values. Marginally severe hail/gusts will be possible. ...Coastal Carolinas... Guidance has trended towards a greater signal for offshore subtropical or tropical cyclogenesis by Monday. Still, spread is quite large with the degree of amplification as NCEP guidance appears to be on the aggressive spectrum relative to non-NCEP models. With timing and spatial differences also large, will defer on a potential tornado threat highlight. ..Grams.. 09/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN TO FOUR CORNERS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts and small to marginally severe hail will be possible on Monday afternoon to early evening across parts of the eastern Great Basin to Four Corners. ...Eastern Great Basin to the Four Corners... An amplified closed mid/upper low over northern/central CA at 12Z Monday should initially move east before curling northeast Monday night towards the NV/UT/ID border area. This will occur in response to a vigorous mid-level jet translating through the basal portion of the large-scale trough across the Desert Southwest into the eastern Great Basin. Surface cyclogenesis should be induced near the UT/NV border area, with a predominant meridional deep-layer flow regime near/just ahead of the low. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop as modest steepening of mid-level lapse rates overspreads a deepening boundary layer during the afternoon. The strengthening synoptic flow regime coupled with inverted-v thermodynamic profiles west of the Wasatch Range may yield sporadic severe gusts with low-topped, high-based convection. Farther southeast towards the Four Corners, a more southwesterly mid to upper-flow regime should yield hodograph elongation, conditionally supporting splitting supercells. Warmer mid-level temperatures and correspondingly weaker lapse rates should temper parcel acceleration to an extent, but this may be offset by somewhat higher PW values. Marginally severe hail/gusts will be possible. ...Coastal Carolinas... Guidance has trended towards a greater signal for offshore subtropical or tropical cyclogenesis by Monday. Still, spread is quite large with the degree of amplification as NCEP guidance appears to be on the aggressive spectrum relative to non-NCEP models. With timing and spatial differences also large, will defer on a potential tornado threat highlight. ..Grams.. 09/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN TO FOUR CORNERS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts and small to marginally severe hail will be possible on Monday afternoon to early evening across parts of the eastern Great Basin to Four Corners. ...Eastern Great Basin to the Four Corners... An amplified closed mid/upper low over northern/central CA at 12Z Monday should initially move east before curling northeast Monday night towards the NV/UT/ID border area. This will occur in response to a vigorous mid-level jet translating through the basal portion of the large-scale trough across the Desert Southwest into the eastern Great Basin. Surface cyclogenesis should be induced near the UT/NV border area, with a predominant meridional deep-layer flow regime near/just ahead of the low. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop as modest steepening of mid-level lapse rates overspreads a deepening boundary layer during the afternoon. The strengthening synoptic flow regime coupled with inverted-v thermodynamic profiles west of the Wasatch Range may yield sporadic severe gusts with low-topped, high-based convection. Farther southeast towards the Four Corners, a more southwesterly mid to upper-flow regime should yield hodograph elongation, conditionally supporting splitting supercells. Warmer mid-level temperatures and correspondingly weaker lapse rates should temper parcel acceleration to an extent, but this may be offset by somewhat higher PW values. Marginally severe hail/gusts will be possible. ...Coastal Carolinas... Guidance has trended towards a greater signal for offshore subtropical or tropical cyclogenesis by Monday. Still, spread is quite large with the degree of amplification as NCEP guidance appears to be on the aggressive spectrum relative to non-NCEP models. With timing and spatial differences also large, will defer on a potential tornado threat highlight. ..Grams.. 09/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN TO FOUR CORNERS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts and small to marginally severe hail will be possible on Monday afternoon to early evening across parts of the eastern Great Basin to Four Corners. ...Eastern Great Basin to the Four Corners... An amplified closed mid/upper low over northern/central CA at 12Z Monday should initially move east before curling northeast Monday night towards the NV/UT/ID border area. This will occur in response to a vigorous mid-level jet translating through the basal portion of the large-scale trough across the Desert Southwest into the eastern Great Basin. Surface cyclogenesis should be induced near the UT/NV border area, with a predominant meridional deep-layer flow regime near/just ahead of the low. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop as modest steepening of mid-level lapse rates overspreads a deepening boundary layer during the afternoon. The strengthening synoptic flow regime coupled with inverted-v thermodynamic profiles west of the Wasatch Range may yield sporadic severe gusts with low-topped, high-based convection. Farther southeast towards the Four Corners, a more southwesterly mid to upper-flow regime should yield hodograph elongation, conditionally supporting splitting supercells. Warmer mid-level temperatures and correspondingly weaker lapse rates should temper parcel acceleration to an extent, but this may be offset by somewhat higher PW values. Marginally severe hail/gusts will be possible. ...Coastal Carolinas... Guidance has trended towards a greater signal for offshore subtropical or tropical cyclogenesis by Monday. Still, spread is quite large with the degree of amplification as NCEP guidance appears to be on the aggressive spectrum relative to non-NCEP models. With timing and spatial differences also large, will defer on a potential tornado threat highlight. ..Grams.. 09/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN TO FOUR CORNERS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts and small to marginally severe hail will be possible on Monday afternoon to early evening across parts of the eastern Great Basin to Four Corners. ...Eastern Great Basin to the Four Corners... An amplified closed mid/upper low over northern/central CA at 12Z Monday should initially move east before curling northeast Monday night towards the NV/UT/ID border area. This will occur in response to a vigorous mid-level jet translating through the basal portion of the large-scale trough across the Desert Southwest into the eastern Great Basin. Surface cyclogenesis should be induced near the UT/NV border area, with a predominant meridional deep-layer flow regime near/just ahead of the low. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop as modest steepening of mid-level lapse rates overspreads a deepening boundary layer during the afternoon. The strengthening synoptic flow regime coupled with inverted-v thermodynamic profiles west of the Wasatch Range may yield sporadic severe gusts with low-topped, high-based convection. Farther southeast towards the Four Corners, a more southwesterly mid to upper-flow regime should yield hodograph elongation, conditionally supporting splitting supercells. Warmer mid-level temperatures and correspondingly weaker lapse rates should temper parcel acceleration to an extent, but this may be offset by somewhat higher PW values. Marginally severe hail/gusts will be possible. ...Coastal Carolinas... Guidance has trended towards a greater signal for offshore subtropical or tropical cyclogenesis by Monday. Still, spread is quite large with the degree of amplification as NCEP guidance appears to be on the aggressive spectrum relative to non-NCEP models. With timing and spatial differences also large, will defer on a potential tornado threat highlight. ..Grams.. 09/14/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... Ahead of an amplifying large-scale trough over the West Coast, enhanced deep-layer meridional flow will overspread a diurnally deepening boundary layer (15-20 percent RH) over portions of the southern Great Basin. This, coupled with a tightening pressure gradient along the southern periphery of an evolving surface cyclone, will yield 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds. These winds will overlap the lowest RH over portions of southern NV, and given modestly receptive fuels here, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 09/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... Ahead of an amplifying large-scale trough over the West Coast, enhanced deep-layer meridional flow will overspread a diurnally deepening boundary layer (15-20 percent RH) over portions of the southern Great Basin. This, coupled with a tightening pressure gradient along the southern periphery of an evolving surface cyclone, will yield 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds. These winds will overlap the lowest RH over portions of southern NV, and given modestly receptive fuels here, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 09/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... Ahead of an amplifying large-scale trough over the West Coast, enhanced deep-layer meridional flow will overspread a diurnally deepening boundary layer (15-20 percent RH) over portions of the southern Great Basin. This, coupled with a tightening pressure gradient along the southern periphery of an evolving surface cyclone, will yield 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds. These winds will overlap the lowest RH over portions of southern NV, and given modestly receptive fuels here, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 09/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... Ahead of an amplifying large-scale trough over the West Coast, enhanced deep-layer meridional flow will overspread a diurnally deepening boundary layer (15-20 percent RH) over portions of the southern Great Basin. This, coupled with a tightening pressure gradient along the southern periphery of an evolving surface cyclone, will yield 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds. These winds will overlap the lowest RH over portions of southern NV, and given modestly receptive fuels here, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 09/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... Ahead of an amplifying large-scale trough over the West Coast, enhanced deep-layer meridional flow will overspread a diurnally deepening boundary layer (15-20 percent RH) over portions of the southern Great Basin. This, coupled with a tightening pressure gradient along the southern periphery of an evolving surface cyclone, will yield 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds. These winds will overlap the lowest RH over portions of southern NV, and given modestly receptive fuels here, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 09/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel jet streak will cross the northern Rockies today, encouraging lee troughing along the northern/central High Plains. Over portions of WY, 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds and 10-15 percent RH will develop in response to the lee troughing and deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft. Given modestly receptive fuels across the area, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected during the afternoon. Farther west, breezy southerly surface winds are expected amid 15-20 percent RH across portions of the southern Great Basin -- within the base of a gradually amplifying large-scale trough. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, a lack of stronger sustained surface winds should limit the overall fire-weather risk. ..Weinman.. 09/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel jet streak will cross the northern Rockies today, encouraging lee troughing along the northern/central High Plains. Over portions of WY, 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds and 10-15 percent RH will develop in response to the lee troughing and deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft. Given modestly receptive fuels across the area, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected during the afternoon. Farther west, breezy southerly surface winds are expected amid 15-20 percent RH across portions of the southern Great Basin -- within the base of a gradually amplifying large-scale trough. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, a lack of stronger sustained surface winds should limit the overall fire-weather risk. ..Weinman.. 09/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more