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Issued at 300 AM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 230852 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm John Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 300 AM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 ...JOHN BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...A HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.4N 98.5W ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM S OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Mexico from Punta Maldonado to Bahias de Huatulco. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta Maldonado to Bahias de Huatulco A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Maldonado to Bahias de Huatulco A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of Bahias de Huatulco to Salina Cruz A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm John was located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 98.5 West. John is moving toward the north-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow motion to the north-northeast or northeast is expected for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to approach the southern coast of Mexico during the next day or two and move inland on Tuesday or Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. John is forecast to strengthen over the next day or two, and could become a hurricane before landfall. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for John can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml RAINFALL: Through Thursday, John is expected to produce 6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated totals around 15 inches across the coastal areas of Chiapas. In areas along and near the Oaxaca coast to southeast Guerrero, between 10 and 20 inches of rain with isolated totals near 30 inches can be expected through Thursday. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and possibly catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and southeast Guerrero, particularly in areas near the coast. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm John, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep10.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible early Tuesday within the Hurricane Watch area. Tropical storm conditions are expected to start within portions of the warning area late today or early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within portions of the watch area beginning on Tuesday. SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to begin to affect the coast of southern Mexico later today, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents much of the week. Please see local statements for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Blake

...JOHN BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...A HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... As of 3:00 AM CST Mon Sep 23 the center of John was located near 14.4, -98.5 with movement NNE at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 23 2024 508 WTPZ25 KNHC 230851 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 0900 UTC MON SEP 23 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 98.5W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 98.5W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 98.5W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.8N 98.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.4N 97.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 15.8N 97.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 70SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 16.0N 97.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 80SE 50SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 98.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 23/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... Some severe potential may develop over parts of the South/Southeast on Day 4/Thu in relation to the potential tropical cyclone currently over the western Caribbean. Uncertainty in the evolution/track of this system precludes severe probabilities at this time. Beyond Day 4/Thu, increasing spread among forecast guidance and a somewhat anomalous mid/upper level pattern lends to low predictability. However, while uncertainty exists regarding the overall evolution of an eastern upper trough/cut-off cyclone, severe potential in general appears low given potential for widespread rainfall along with poor lapse rates/instability. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... Some severe potential may develop over parts of the South/Southeast on Day 4/Thu in relation to the potential tropical cyclone currently over the western Caribbean. Uncertainty in the evolution/track of this system precludes severe probabilities at this time. Beyond Day 4/Thu, increasing spread among forecast guidance and a somewhat anomalous mid/upper level pattern lends to low predictability. However, while uncertainty exists regarding the overall evolution of an eastern upper trough/cut-off cyclone, severe potential in general appears low given potential for widespread rainfall along with poor lapse rates/instability. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... Some severe potential may develop over parts of the South/Southeast on Day 4/Thu in relation to the potential tropical cyclone currently over the western Caribbean. Uncertainty in the evolution/track of this system precludes severe probabilities at this time. Beyond Day 4/Thu, increasing spread among forecast guidance and a somewhat anomalous mid/upper level pattern lends to low predictability. However, while uncertainty exists regarding the overall evolution of an eastern upper trough/cut-off cyclone, severe potential in general appears low given potential for widespread rainfall along with poor lapse rates/instability. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... Some severe potential may develop over parts of the South/Southeast on Day 4/Thu in relation to the potential tropical cyclone currently over the western Caribbean. Uncertainty in the evolution/track of this system precludes severe probabilities at this time. Beyond Day 4/Thu, increasing spread among forecast guidance and a somewhat anomalous mid/upper level pattern lends to low predictability. However, while uncertainty exists regarding the overall evolution of an eastern upper trough/cut-off cyclone, severe potential in general appears low given potential for widespread rainfall along with poor lapse rates/instability. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... Some severe potential may develop over parts of the South/Southeast on Day 4/Thu in relation to the potential tropical cyclone currently over the western Caribbean. Uncertainty in the evolution/track of this system precludes severe probabilities at this time. Beyond Day 4/Thu, increasing spread among forecast guidance and a somewhat anomalous mid/upper level pattern lends to low predictability. However, while uncertainty exists regarding the overall evolution of an eastern upper trough/cut-off cyclone, severe potential in general appears low given potential for widespread rainfall along with poor lapse rates/instability. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is uncertain, but limited, on Wednesday. ...Southeast into the central Appalachians... Forecast uncertainty is quite high for Day 3/Wed. The evolution of the upper trough over the Upper Midwest/MS Valley early in the day is varied across forecast guidance. A northern stream upper shortwave trough will probably migrate across the Great Lakes. The southern stream of this trough may develop a closed low over the Mid-South into the lower OH/TN Valley vicinity. Meanwhile, the tropical disturbance currently over the western Caribbean is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday per latest NHC guidance. The track of this feature is also uncertain and will be influenced by the evolution of the aforementioned upper trough. Some tropical cyclone related tornado risk could develop across the west coast of FL, but given the high degree of uncertainty at this time, will hold off on introducing a Marginal risk. Otherwise, a moist warm sector will exist across much of the Gulf coast states into parts oft he central Appalachians as moderate deep-layer south/southwesterly flow streams over the region. Precipitation will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning, resulting in uncertainty in daytime destabilization across the region. Some low-end severe thunderstorm potential may evolve, but uncertainty is too great to include probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 09/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is uncertain, but limited, on Wednesday. ...Southeast into the central Appalachians... Forecast uncertainty is quite high for Day 3/Wed. The evolution of the upper trough over the Upper Midwest/MS Valley early in the day is varied across forecast guidance. A northern stream upper shortwave trough will probably migrate across the Great Lakes. The southern stream of this trough may develop a closed low over the Mid-South into the lower OH/TN Valley vicinity. Meanwhile, the tropical disturbance currently over the western Caribbean is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday per latest NHC guidance. The track of this feature is also uncertain and will be influenced by the evolution of the aforementioned upper trough. Some tropical cyclone related tornado risk could develop across the west coast of FL, but given the high degree of uncertainty at this time, will hold off on introducing a Marginal risk. Otherwise, a moist warm sector will exist across much of the Gulf coast states into parts oft he central Appalachians as moderate deep-layer south/southwesterly flow streams over the region. Precipitation will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning, resulting in uncertainty in daytime destabilization across the region. Some low-end severe thunderstorm potential may evolve, but uncertainty is too great to include probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 09/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is uncertain, but limited, on Wednesday. ...Southeast into the central Appalachians... Forecast uncertainty is quite high for Day 3/Wed. The evolution of the upper trough over the Upper Midwest/MS Valley early in the day is varied across forecast guidance. A northern stream upper shortwave trough will probably migrate across the Great Lakes. The southern stream of this trough may develop a closed low over the Mid-South into the lower OH/TN Valley vicinity. Meanwhile, the tropical disturbance currently over the western Caribbean is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday per latest NHC guidance. The track of this feature is also uncertain and will be influenced by the evolution of the aforementioned upper trough. Some tropical cyclone related tornado risk could develop across the west coast of FL, but given the high degree of uncertainty at this time, will hold off on introducing a Marginal risk. Otherwise, a moist warm sector will exist across much of the Gulf coast states into parts oft he central Appalachians as moderate deep-layer south/southwesterly flow streams over the region. Precipitation will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning, resulting in uncertainty in daytime destabilization across the region. Some low-end severe thunderstorm potential may evolve, but uncertainty is too great to include probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 09/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is uncertain, but limited, on Wednesday. ...Southeast into the central Appalachians... Forecast uncertainty is quite high for Day 3/Wed. The evolution of the upper trough over the Upper Midwest/MS Valley early in the day is varied across forecast guidance. A northern stream upper shortwave trough will probably migrate across the Great Lakes. The southern stream of this trough may develop a closed low over the Mid-South into the lower OH/TN Valley vicinity. Meanwhile, the tropical disturbance currently over the western Caribbean is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday per latest NHC guidance. The track of this feature is also uncertain and will be influenced by the evolution of the aforementioned upper trough. Some tropical cyclone related tornado risk could develop across the west coast of FL, but given the high degree of uncertainty at this time, will hold off on introducing a Marginal risk. Otherwise, a moist warm sector will exist across much of the Gulf coast states into parts oft he central Appalachians as moderate deep-layer south/southwesterly flow streams over the region. Precipitation will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning, resulting in uncertainty in daytime destabilization across the region. Some low-end severe thunderstorm potential may evolve, but uncertainty is too great to include probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 09/23/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low on Tuesday across the CONUS. A ridge will build in across the western US, with dry and warming conditions amid generally light winds. Longwave troughing will deepen across the Plains, with some post-frontal northwesterly breezes across the High Plains. Overall, cool conditions will keep relative humidity values high and there is potential for wetting rainfall Monday into Tuesday. ..Thornton.. 09/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low on Tuesday across the CONUS. A ridge will build in across the western US, with dry and warming conditions amid generally light winds. Longwave troughing will deepen across the Plains, with some post-frontal northwesterly breezes across the High Plains. Overall, cool conditions will keep relative humidity values high and there is potential for wetting rainfall Monday into Tuesday. ..Thornton.. 09/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low on Tuesday across the CONUS. A ridge will build in across the western US, with dry and warming conditions amid generally light winds. Longwave troughing will deepen across the Plains, with some post-frontal northwesterly breezes across the High Plains. Overall, cool conditions will keep relative humidity values high and there is potential for wetting rainfall Monday into Tuesday. ..Thornton.. 09/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low on Tuesday across the CONUS. A ridge will build in across the western US, with dry and warming conditions amid generally light winds. Longwave troughing will deepen across the Plains, with some post-frontal northwesterly breezes across the High Plains. Overall, cool conditions will keep relative humidity values high and there is potential for wetting rainfall Monday into Tuesday. ..Thornton.. 09/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low today across the CONUS. Across the central US, cool and wet conditions continue beneath mid-level troughing. Ridging will begin building across the western US with warming conditions. Dry conditions are expected across the southwest, but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. ..Thornton.. 09/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low today across the CONUS. Across the central US, cool and wet conditions continue beneath mid-level troughing. Ridging will begin building across the western US with warming conditions. Dry conditions are expected across the southwest, but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. ..Thornton.. 09/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low today across the CONUS. Across the central US, cool and wet conditions continue beneath mid-level troughing. Ridging will begin building across the western US with warming conditions. Dry conditions are expected across the southwest, but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. ..Thornton.. 09/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low today across the CONUS. Across the central US, cool and wet conditions continue beneath mid-level troughing. Ridging will begin building across the western US with warming conditions. Dry conditions are expected across the southwest, but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. ..Thornton.. 09/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more