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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS TO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into evening from the Ozarks into parts of the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys. ...Ozarks to TN/OH Valleys and southern Appalachians... A positive-tilt upper trough will influence the region, with a general increase in relatively strong deep-layer southwesterly winds. Severe storms are possible this afternoon, particularly and initially across the Ozarks including far south-central to southeast Missouri, as well as far northern Arkansas and far southern Illinois. This will be in vicinity of a weak surface wave and a northward-shifting warm front as lingering morning convection along/north of the Ohio River abates and shifts eastward. Increasingly strong deep-layer winds could support some supercells. Some hail is possible given the buoyancy/deep-layer wind profiles, although mid-level lapse rates are not steep. Locally damaging winds may also occur, with some potential for a tornado or two mainly near the warm front. Although uncertainties linger regarding destabilization and the magnitude of the severe risk later this afternoon, portions of southeast Missouri and far southern Illinois will continue to be reevaluated into mid-afternoon (20Z update) for a potential risk upgrade. Farther east, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably develop near the ridge tops of the southern Appalachians and adjacent parts of the Carolinas Piedmont this afternoon. Moist low levels coupled with heating will result in around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Some modest multicell organization may occur due to adequately strong upper-level westerly flow, with a few locally damaging wind gusts a possibility. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 09/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS TO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into evening from the Ozarks into parts of the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys. ...Ozarks to TN/OH Valleys and southern Appalachians... A positive-tilt upper trough will influence the region, with a general increase in relatively strong deep-layer southwesterly winds. Severe storms are possible this afternoon, particularly and initially across the Ozarks including far south-central to southeast Missouri, as well as far northern Arkansas and far southern Illinois. This will be in vicinity of a weak surface wave and a northward-shifting warm front as lingering morning convection along/north of the Ohio River abates and shifts eastward. Increasingly strong deep-layer winds could support some supercells. Some hail is possible given the buoyancy/deep-layer wind profiles, although mid-level lapse rates are not steep. Locally damaging winds may also occur, with some potential for a tornado or two mainly near the warm front. Although uncertainties linger regarding destabilization and the magnitude of the severe risk later this afternoon, portions of southeast Missouri and far southern Illinois will continue to be reevaluated into mid-afternoon (20Z update) for a potential risk upgrade. Farther east, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably develop near the ridge tops of the southern Appalachians and adjacent parts of the Carolinas Piedmont this afternoon. Moist low levels coupled with heating will result in around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Some modest multicell organization may occur due to adequately strong upper-level westerly flow, with a few locally damaging wind gusts a possibility. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 09/23/2024 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2024 14:48:53 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2024 15:28:47 GMT

Issued at 900 AM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 231447 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm John Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 900 AM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 Satellite images show that John has been strengthening quickly. A large area of cold cloud tops between -70C and -85C is present over the tropical cyclone, with tight curved bands wrapping around the center. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates are T-3.5/55 kt from TAFB and T-3.0/45 kt from SAB. Recent objective Dvorak intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS have been ranging between 57 and 76 kt. A 23/0836 UTC AMSR-2 microwave pass shows that the inner core has become much better defined, showing a small eye-like feature on microwave imagery, although there are no signs of an eye showing up yet in infrared or visible images. A 23/1011 UTC SSMIS pass showed a similar structure to the AMSR-2 pass. Based on the above data and imagery, the initial intensity is raised to 60 kt. John will continue to be located within an environment of extremely warm ocean temperatures, light wind shear and a moist low- to mid-level troposphere as it approaches the coast of Mexico. While the hurricane regional and dynamical models show a more limited amount of additional strengthening, the statistical models like SHIPS and LGEM are at the high end of the guidance suite. Given that the system has already intensified by 30 kt in the past 18 h, and given that the SHIPS rapid intensity index is showing greater than an 85 percent chance of a 30-kt increase in the next 24 h, the NHC intensity forecast will now explicitly show rapid strengthening over the next 24 h. This intensity forecast is at the high end of the guidance suite. It is possible that John could peak even higher than shown below between the 24 h forecast point and when it is forecast to move inland around 36 hours. Interests along the coast of southern Mexico should closely monitor future forecast updates on John. Based on center fixes over the past 6 to 12 hours, John's motion is estimated to be northward, or 0 degrees at 3 kt. John is embedded in very weak steering currents, and the primary steering mechanism is likely the southwesterly monsoonal flow that the cyclone is embedded in. The new NHC track forecast has been shifted to the west of the previous official forecast and now lies very near the latest model consensus. It should be noted that the track forecast and timing of when the center reaches the coast is more uncertain than normal. KEY MESSAGES: 1. John is expected to become a hurricane later today and additional strengthening is likely before the center reaches the coast of southern Mexico within the Hurricane Warning area on Tuesday. Damaging hurricane-force winds and a dangerous storm surge are expected within portions of the warning area. 2. John will bring very heavy rainfall to coastal portions of southern Mexico through this week. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and possibly catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and southeast Guerrero, particularly in areas near the coast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 14.8N 98.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 15.2N 98.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 15.7N 97.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 16.0N 97.6W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND 48H 25/1200Z 16.2N 97.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen

Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 23 2024 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 231447 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 1500 UTC MON SEP 23 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 100W 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) ACAPULCO 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) P MALDONADO 34 9 43(52) 12(64) 3(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) P MALDONADO 50 X 8( 8) 7(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) P MALDONADO 64 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) P ANGEL 34 1 23(24) 34(58) 7(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) P ANGEL 50 X 1( 1) 11(12) 5(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) P ANGEL 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HUATULCO 34 X 4( 4) 19(23) 5(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) HUATULCO 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HUATULCO 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 95W 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 6(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 23 2024 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 231447 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 1500 UTC MON SEP 23 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 98.5W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 0 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 75SE 75SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 98.5W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 98.6W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.2N 98.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.7N 97.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.0N 97.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 5NE 10SE 10SW 5NW. 50 KT... 15NE 20SE 20SW 15NW. 34 KT... 40NE 80SE 80SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 16.2N 97.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 98.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 23/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

Issued at 900 AM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 231447 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm John Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 900 AM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 ...JOHN RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... ...DAMAGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 98.5W ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM S OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SW OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Punta Maldonado to Bahias de Huatulco A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Bahias de Huatulco to Salina Cruz A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 h. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm John was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 98.5 West. John is moving toward the north near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow motion to the north-northeast or northeast is expected for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to approach the southern coast of Mexico late tonight and early Tuesday, and move inland on Tuesday or Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast, and John is expected to become a hurricane by this afternoon, with additional strengthening expected before the center reaches the coast of southern Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for John can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml RAINFALL: Through Thursday, John is expected to produce 6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated totals around 15 inches across the coastal areas of Chiapas. In areas along and near the Oaxaca coast to southeast Guerrero, between 10 and 20 inches of rain with isolated totals near 30 inches can be expected through Thursday. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and possibly catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and southeast Guerrero, particularly in areas near the coast. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm John, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area early Tuesday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the tropical storm warning area on Tuesday. SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue affecting the coast of southern Mexico during the next couple of days, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents much of the week. Please see local statements for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Hagen

A pumpkin grower in Licking County got roughly 30% fewer pumpkins and they were smaller than usual. Dust was also more prevalent than usual in the field and on the paths. Sunflowers only grew to about three feet in height, although they usually get about twice that tall. WBNS 10 (Columbus, Ohio), Sept 23, 2024

...DAMAGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... As of 9:00 AM CST Mon Sep 23 the center of John was located near 14.8, -98.5 with movement N at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 000 WTPZ65 KNHC 231342 TCUEP5 Tropical Storm John Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 1000 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Recent satellite imagery indicates that John continues to become better organized, and that it is likely to become a hurricane later today. Continued strengthening appears likely while John approaches the coast of southern Mexico within the Hurricane Warning area. This will result in changes to the initial and forecast intensity that will be reflected in the next forecast advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center at 900 AM CST (1500 UTC). $$ Forecaster Brown

...JOHN QUICKLY STRENGTHENING AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... As of 6:00 AM CST Mon Sep 23 the center of John was located near 14.5, -98.5 with movement NNE at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS TO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this afternoon into the early evening from the Ozarks into parts of the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys. ...Ozarks into TN/OH Valleys and southern Appalachians... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a digging trough over eastern MT with it forecast to move into the Dakotas this afternoon. A positive-tilt mid-level trough over the central Plains will move east and deamplify over the MS Valley overnight. This evolution is expected to aid weak surface wave/low development along the synoptic front over the Ozarks before moving to the IL/IN border by early Tuesday morning. Ongoing showers/thunderstorms over southeast MO will continue east into the lower OH Valley this morning and temper destabilization through at least midday. In its wake, models indicate MLCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg developing from AR into western KY/TN, coincident with modest 0-6km bulk shear. The surface boundary will serve as the focus for scattered convection later today with some of the stronger storms potentially capable of a localized severe threat. This activity is expected to diminish during the evening. Farther east, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably develop near the ridge tops of the southern Appalachians and adjacent parts of the Carolinas Piedmont this afternoon. Moist low levels coupled with heating will result in around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Some modest multicell organization may occur due to adequately strong upper-level westerly flow. However, weak flow in the lowest 5 km and modest lapse rates will probably temper the overall potential for localized strong gusts (40-55 mph). ..Smith/Broyles.. 09/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS TO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this afternoon into the early evening from the Ozarks into parts of the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys. ...Ozarks into TN/OH Valleys and southern Appalachians... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a digging trough over eastern MT with it forecast to move into the Dakotas this afternoon. A positive-tilt mid-level trough over the central Plains will move east and deamplify over the MS Valley overnight. This evolution is expected to aid weak surface wave/low development along the synoptic front over the Ozarks before moving to the IL/IN border by early Tuesday morning. Ongoing showers/thunderstorms over southeast MO will continue east into the lower OH Valley this morning and temper destabilization through at least midday. In its wake, models indicate MLCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg developing from AR into western KY/TN, coincident with modest 0-6km bulk shear. The surface boundary will serve as the focus for scattered convection later today with some of the stronger storms potentially capable of a localized severe threat. This activity is expected to diminish during the evening. Farther east, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably develop near the ridge tops of the southern Appalachians and adjacent parts of the Carolinas Piedmont this afternoon. Moist low levels coupled with heating will result in around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Some modest multicell organization may occur due to adequately strong upper-level westerly flow. However, weak flow in the lowest 5 km and modest lapse rates will probably temper the overall potential for localized strong gusts (40-55 mph). ..Smith/Broyles.. 09/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS TO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this afternoon into the early evening from the Ozarks into parts of the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys. ...Ozarks into TN/OH Valleys and southern Appalachians... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a digging trough over eastern MT with it forecast to move into the Dakotas this afternoon. A positive-tilt mid-level trough over the central Plains will move east and deamplify over the MS Valley overnight. This evolution is expected to aid weak surface wave/low development along the synoptic front over the Ozarks before moving to the IL/IN border by early Tuesday morning. Ongoing showers/thunderstorms over southeast MO will continue east into the lower OH Valley this morning and temper destabilization through at least midday. In its wake, models indicate MLCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg developing from AR into western KY/TN, coincident with modest 0-6km bulk shear. The surface boundary will serve as the focus for scattered convection later today with some of the stronger storms potentially capable of a localized severe threat. This activity is expected to diminish during the evening. Farther east, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably develop near the ridge tops of the southern Appalachians and adjacent parts of the Carolinas Piedmont this afternoon. Moist low levels coupled with heating will result in around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Some modest multicell organization may occur due to adequately strong upper-level westerly flow. However, weak flow in the lowest 5 km and modest lapse rates will probably temper the overall potential for localized strong gusts (40-55 mph). ..Smith/Broyles.. 09/23/2024 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2024 11:54:45 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2024 09:22:45 GMT

Issued at 600 AM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 231154 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm John Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 600 AM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 ...JOHN QUICKLY STRENGTHENING AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 98.5W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM S OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM WSW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the coast of Mexico from Punta Maldonado to Bahias de Huatulco. The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Mexico from east of Bahias de Huatulco to Salina Cruz. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Punta Maldonado to Bahias de Huatulco A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Bahias de Huatulco to Salina Cruz A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 h. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm John was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 98.5 West. John is moving toward the north-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow motion to the north-northeast or northeast is expected for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to approach the southern coast of Mexico during the next day or two and move inland on Tuesday or Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. John is forecast to strengthen as it approaches the coast of southern Mexico, and the chances of it becoming a hurricane before landfall are increasing. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for John can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml RAINFALL: Through Thursday, John is expected to produce 6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated totals around 15 inches across the coastal areas of Chiapas. In areas along and near the Oaxaca coast to southeast Guerrero, between 10 and 20 inches of rain with isolated totals near 30 inches can be expected through Thursday. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and possibly catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and southeast Guerrero, particularly in areas near the coast. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm John, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep10.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area early Tuesday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the tropical storm warning area on Tuesday. SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to begin to affect the coast of southern Mexico later today, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents much of the week. Please see local statements for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Hagen

...JOHN QUICKLY STRENGTHENING AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... As of 6:00 AM CST Mon Sep 23 the center of John was located near 14.5, -98.5 with movement NNE at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 231143
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Sep 23 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm John, located just south of southern Mexico.

Central Portion of the East Pacific:
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles
west-southwest of southwestern Mexico is producing limited shower
and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions only appear
marginally favorable for gradual development of this system while
it moves slowly eastward to the south of the coast of Mexico
through the middle of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm John are issued under WMO
header WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm John are issued under WMO
header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2024 08:57:15 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2024 09:22:45 GMT

Issued at 300 AM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 230853 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm John Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 300 AM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 Satellite images indicate that John continues to become better organized, with very deep convection near the center and some tight curved band features. Earlier microwave imagery also showed some inner core development, with perhaps a partial eyewall trying to form. Subjective Dvorak estimates at 06z were 35 kt from both TAFB/SAB, though the objective values were between 40-50 kt. The intensity is set to 40 kt as a blend of these data. The storm is moving slowly to the north-northeast, caught in the large-scale southwesterly flow associated with the monsoon trough near Central America. There has been a big change in most of the track guidance since yesterday, with a fair number of the models now showing a steadier northeastward motion with less eastward steering from the incipient tropical cyclone in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Consequently, the models have shifted leftward and faster. The official forecast is also trended in that direction, but could still be too far to the east. John is forecast to be over very warm waters with light shear while it approaches the coast of Mexico over the next day or so. While none of the regional hurricane models make John a hurricane before landfall, the rapid intensification indices are indicating at least a 50 percent chance that this system strengthens 30 kt in the next 24 hours, which would indicate hurricane-strength. Given the uncertainties involved, a Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning have been issued by the government of Mexico for portions of the coast of southern Mexico on this advisory, and interests there should closely monitor for future forecast updates. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Slow-moving Tropical Storm John will bring very heavy rainfall to coastal portions of southwest Mexico through the upcoming week. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and possibly catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and southeast Guerrero, particularly in areas near the coast. 2. John is forecast to strengthen before landfall, and a Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning have been issued for a portion of the coastline of southern Mexico, where tropical storm conditions could begin late today. 3. John could strengthen more than forecast depending on how long it remains over water. Interests along the coast of southern Mexico should monitor the latest forecast updates, as Hurricane Warnings could be required for a portion of the coastline later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 14.4N 98.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 14.8N 98.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 15.4N 97.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 15.8N 97.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 16.0N 97.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 60H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake