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WW 0683 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 683 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..09/26/24 ATTN...WFO...MLB...MFL...TBW...JAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 683 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC009-011-015-017-021-027-043-049-051-053-055-057-061-069-071- 075-081-083-085-086-087-093-095-097-099-101-103-105-111-115-117- 119-127-261340- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BREVARD BROWARD CHARLOTTE CITRUS COLLIER DESOTO GLADES HARDEE HENDRY HERNANDO HIGHLANDS HILLSBOROUGH INDIAN RIVER LAKE LEE LEVY MANATEE MARION MARTIN MIAMI-DADE MONROE OKEECHOBEE ORANGE OSCEOLA PALM BEACH PASCO PINELLAS POLK ST. LUCIE SARASOTA SEMINOLE SUMTER VOLUSIA AMZ550-552-555-610-630-650-651-GMZ656-657-830-836-850-853-856- 261340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0683 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 683 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..09/26/24 ATTN...WFO...MLB...MFL...TBW...JAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 683 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC009-011-015-017-021-027-043-049-051-053-055-057-061-069-071- 075-081-083-085-086-087-093-095-097-099-101-103-105-111-115-117- 119-127-261340- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BREVARD BROWARD CHARLOTTE CITRUS COLLIER DESOTO GLADES HARDEE HENDRY HERNANDO HIGHLANDS HILLSBOROUGH INDIAN RIVER LAKE LEE LEVY MANATEE MARION MARTIN MIAMI-DADE MONROE OKEECHOBEE ORANGE OSCEOLA PALM BEACH PASCO PINELLAS POLK ST. LUCIE SARASOTA SEMINOLE SUMTER VOLUSIA AMZ550-552-555-610-630-650-651-GMZ656-657-830-836-850-853-856- 261340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0683 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 683 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..09/26/24 ATTN...WFO...MLB...MFL...TBW...JAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 683 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC009-011-015-017-021-027-043-049-051-053-055-057-061-069-071- 075-081-083-085-086-087-093-095-097-099-101-103-105-111-115-117- 119-127-261340- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BREVARD BROWARD CHARLOTTE CITRUS COLLIER DESOTO GLADES HARDEE HENDRY HERNANDO HIGHLANDS HILLSBOROUGH INDIAN RIVER LAKE LEE LEVY MANATEE MARION MARTIN MIAMI-DADE MONROE OKEECHOBEE ORANGE OSCEOLA PALM BEACH PASCO PINELLAS POLK ST. LUCIE SARASOTA SEMINOLE SUMTER VOLUSIA AMZ550-552-555-610-630-650-651-GMZ656-657-830-836-850-853-856- 261340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0684 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0684 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0684 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0684 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0684 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0684 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0684 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0684 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0684 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0684 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0684 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0684 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 261144
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Sep 26 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
John, located just south of southwestern Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Hurricane John are issued under WMO header
WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5.
Forecast/Advisories on Hurricane John are issued under WMO header
WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 26 Sep 2024 11:44:29 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 26 Sep 2024 09:35:24 GMT

Issued at 600 AM CST Thu Sep 26 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 261144 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane John Intermediate Advisory Number 14A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 600 AM CST Thu Sep 26 2024 ...JOHN BECOMES A HURRICANE ONCE AGAIN... ...CATASTROPHIC LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 102.6W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM WSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Maldonado to east of Tecpan de Galeana * West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane John was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 102.6 West. John is moving toward the west-northwest near 4 mph (7 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue today, followed by a gradual turn to the northwest by this evening. On the forecast track, the center of John is forecast to approach and move along the coast of southwestern Mexico or just inland on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected until the center moves along the coast or inland on Friday, which should cause John to quickly weaken to a depression Friday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (15 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Through Friday, Hurricane John is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches with isolated totals around 30 inches across portions of the Mexican States of Guerrero, Oaxaca and Michoacan. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with John, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected along the coast within the hurricane warning area by tonight or early Friday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength later this morning, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are currently occurring over portions of the coast within the tropical storm warning area, and should continue through today. SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue to affect the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico through the week, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents. Please see local statements for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly

...JOHN BECOMES A HURRICANE ONCE AGAIN... ...CATASTROPHIC LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... As of 6:00 AM CST Thu Sep 26 the center of John was located near 17.3, -102.6 with movement WNW at 4 mph. The minimum central pressure was 979 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

MD 2109 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 2109 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Areas affected...South Florida Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 260846Z - 261115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...An isolated tornado threat will continue across parts of south Florida over the next few hours. Weather watch will be possible at some point this morning. DISCUSSION...Hurricane Helene is currently located over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, with the outer rain bands extending to near the west coast of south Florida. The latest hi-resolution radar imagery from Miami shows widely spaced discrete storms ongoing along and near the Florida Gulf Coast. The WSR-88D VWP at Miami has 0-6 km shear around 35 knots, with 0-3 storm-relative helicity near 275 m2/s2, which is pretty similar to what was evident on the 06Z sounding at Miami. This will be favorable for storm rotation and potentially tornado development within the cells that obtain supercell structure. RAP forecast soundings across south Florida slowly strengthen low-level shear this morning, and have a gradual increase in instability. This suggests that the tornado threat will be maintained across south Florida. Additionally, a band of storms has developed to the south of the Florida Keys over the last couple of hours. As this band of storms spreads northward into south Florida this morning, the tornado threat may increase. ..Broyles/Gleason.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW... LAT...LON 25708005 26147999 26528003 26928031 27178098 27108143 26878182 26488202 25838192 25228197 24738201 24518184 24498160 24588130 24798075 25138027 25708005 Read more

WW 0683 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0683 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0683 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0683 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Sep 26 10:23:02 UTC 2024.

Issued at 300 AM CST Thu Sep 26 2024 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 260919 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm John Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 300 AM CST Thu Sep 26 2024 Recent TROPICS/TMS and SSMIS microwave passes indicated an improved inner core with a 70 percent closed small eye feature. The UW-CIMSS objective intensity guidance ranges from 56 to 65 kt, and the latest SATCON analysis indicated an intensity of 61 kt. The subjective satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB are 65 and 55 kt, respectively. The initial intensity is set at 60 kt using a blend of these data. The ocean sea surface temperatures are very warm, and the shear is low, and there is ample moisture in the low to mid-portions of the atmosphere for John to quickly strengthen before the cyclone moves over the coast on Friday. The UW-CIMSS AI RI index and the SHIPS statistical-dynamical RI model both continue to show increasing chances of John quickly strengthening during the next 24 hrs and the NHC intensity forecast follows suit and shows a peak of 85 kt before landfall. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 285/3 kt and is being steered by a mid-tropospheric ridge centered over Northern Mexico. John should continue in this general motion through today, followed by a gradual turn to the northwest by this evening. On the forecast track, the center of John is forecast to approach and move along the coast of southwestern Mexico or just inland on Friday. The official track forecast is adjusted a little to the left of the previous one and follows a compromise of the skilled HCCA consensus model and the ECMWF global model, which has been performing the best with this system. The wind radii have been adjusted for this advisory, and was based on a 0426 UTC METOP-C scatterometer overpass. It cannot be emphasized enough that catastrophic life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected to continue through the end of the week for portions of the Mexican States of Guerrero, Oaxaca and Michoacan. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical Storm John will bring additional very heavy rainfall to coastal portions of southwest Mexico through Friday. The additional rainfall totals will be falling across areas that have received very heavy rainfall amounts over the past few days. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and catastrophic life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Guerrero, Oaxaca and Michoacan. 2. John is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane before landfall, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect along the coastline of southwestern Mexico, where tropical storm conditions could begin during the next few hours. Tropical Storm Warnings are also in effect for portions of the area and has been extended westward to Manzanillo. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 17.1N 102.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 17.2N 102.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 17.8N 103.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 18.8N 103.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 19.7N 104.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 28/1800Z 20.2N 106.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts

Issued at 300 AM CST Thu Sep 26 2024 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 260909 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm John Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 300 AM CST Thu Sep 26 2024 Recent TROPICS/TMS and SSMIS microwave passes indicated an improved inner core with a 70 percent closed small eye feature. The UW-CIMSS objective intensity guidance ranges from 56 to 65 kt, and the latest SATCON analysis indicated an intensity of 61 kt. The subjective satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB are 65 and 55 kt, respectively. The initial intensity is set at 60 kt using a blend of these data. The ocean sea surface temperatures are very warm, and the shear is low, and there is ample moisture in the low to mid-portions of the atmosphere for John to quickly strengthen before the cyclone moves over the coast on Friday. The UW-CIMSS AI RI index and the SHIPS statistical-dynamical RI model both continue to show increasing chances of John quickly strengthening during the next 24 hrs and the NHC intensity forecast follows suit and shows a peak of 85 kt before landfall. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 285/3 kt and is being steered by a mid-tropospheric ridge centered over Northern Mexico. John should continue in this general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a gradual turn to the northwest by this evening. On the forecast track, the center of John is forecast to approach and move along the coast of southwestern Mexico or just inland on Friday. The official track forecast is adjusted to a little to the left of the previous one and follows a compromise of the skilled HCCA consensus model and the ECMWF global model, which has been performing the best with this system. The wind radii have been adjusted for this advisory, and was based on a 0426 UTC METOP-C scatterometer overpass. It cannot be emphasized enough that catastrophic life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected to continue through the end of the week for portions of the Mexican States of Guerrero, Oaxaca and Michoacan. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical Storm John will bring additional very heavy rainfall to coastal portions of southwest Mexico through Friday. The additional rainfall totals will be falling across areas that have received very heavy rainfall amounts over the past few days. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and catastrophic life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Guerrero, Oaxaca and Michoacan. 2. John is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane before landfall, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect along the coastline of southwestern Mexico, where tropical storm conditions could begin during the next few hours. Tropical Storm Warnings are also in effect for portions of the area and has been extended westward to Manzanillo. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 17.1N 102.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 17.2N 102.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 17.8N 103.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 18.8N 103.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 19.7N 104.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 28/1800Z 20.2N 106.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 26 Sep 2024 08:36:55 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 26 Sep 2024 09:35:24 GMT