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...HURRICANE JOHN IS PRODUCING CATASTROPHIC LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... As of 9:00 AM CST Thu Sep 26 the center of John was located near 17.5, -102.7 with movement NW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 979 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Seneca County area soybean growers have had yields ranging from 25 bushels per acre up to 80 bpa. Many of the beans were from pods that had just two beans, flat pods or very small beans. A corn and soybean farmer in Preble County has seen soybean yields of 70 to 82 bpa. The beans are really dry, about 6% to 7% moisture. The corn harvest has not yet begun, but ears filled out completely and look good. Clark County has been very dry for about six weeks until the week of September 22. Prior to the rain, conditions were so dry that field fires and combine fires were a problem. The corn and soybean harvests were underway with the corn yields down about 10% and the soybean yield was down about 20%. Moisture levels were unusually low at 12% to 13% for corn and 7% to 9% for soybeans. Drought cost the farmer on yield and the dryness of the soybeans will cost him about $30 to $35 per acre. Corn and soybean harvests in Pickaway County were yielding 100 bpa, compared to a normal yield of 175 bpa or more, and 25 to 30 bpa, compared to 55 bpa or more, respectively. Just two inches of rain have fallen since planting. SF| Successful Farming (Des Moines, Iowa), Sept 25, 2024

MD 2110 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FAR EASTERN GEORGIA...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 2110 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Areas affected...Far Eastern Georgia...Southern and Central South Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 261136Z - 261330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...An isolated tornado threat is expected to continue over the several hours from far eastern Georgia into southern and central South Carolina. Tornado watch issuance may become necessary. DISCUSSION...Hurricane Helene continues to move northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Ahead of the system, onshore flow is present across much of the southern Atlantic Seaboard. Low-level convergence is maximized near the coast of Georgia and South Carolina where isolated storms have been generating over the last hour. RAP analysis shows weak instability near the coast, but also has an 850 mb speed max located over eastern Georgia with wind speeds in the 30 to 35 knot range. This is reflected on the Charleston, South Carolina WSR-88D VWP, which has 0-6 km shear near 40 knots, and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity of near 170 m2/s2. This should be enough for tornado development associated with short-topped supercells. The tornado threat may spread northward into central South Carolina over the next few hours. ..Broyles/Guyer.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC... LAT...LON 32128025 31348099 31108137 31168179 31498203 32248236 33108239 33658218 33998190 34098139 33958065 33678006 33217979 32657982 32128025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are expected today into tonight across the coastal Southeast in association with Hurricane Helene. The greatest threat is expected across parts of Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. ...Florida/Georgia and the Carolinas... Hurricane Helene, centered 300-350 miles southwest of Tampa early this morning, will continue to move north-northeast and accelerate over the eastern/northeastern Gulf of Mexico today into tonight, with landfall expected in the Florida Big Bend region this evening. Consult National Hurricane Center forecasts and advisories for more track, intensity, and impact details. Related to Helene's large size and increasingly fast forward speed, an associated increase of low-level flow/shear will occur across the Florida Peninsula today, southeast Georgia and parts of South Carolina by afternoon, and eventually into parts of North Carolina tonight. Low-level shear (and moisture/buoyancy) is already supportive of a tornado risk in some areas regionally, reference 12z observed soundings from Miami and especially Tampa Bay. However, this tornado-supportive scenario will diurnally increase and expand north-northeastward regionally through the afternoon and evening. Low-level hodographs will become quite large, with 0-1 km SRH increasing into at least the 250-500 m2/s2 range. This will support tornado potential with any low-topped supercells that are able to develop and persist within Helene's rain bands. Some tornado potential will reach into parts of North Carolina later tonight. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are expected today into tonight across the coastal Southeast in association with Hurricane Helene. The greatest threat is expected across parts of Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. ...Florida/Georgia and the Carolinas... Hurricane Helene, centered 300-350 miles southwest of Tampa early this morning, will continue to move north-northeast and accelerate over the eastern/northeastern Gulf of Mexico today into tonight, with landfall expected in the Florida Big Bend region this evening. Consult National Hurricane Center forecasts and advisories for more track, intensity, and impact details. Related to Helene's large size and increasingly fast forward speed, an associated increase of low-level flow/shear will occur across the Florida Peninsula today, southeast Georgia and parts of South Carolina by afternoon, and eventually into parts of North Carolina tonight. Low-level shear (and moisture/buoyancy) is already supportive of a tornado risk in some areas regionally, reference 12z observed soundings from Miami and especially Tampa Bay. However, this tornado-supportive scenario will diurnally increase and expand north-northeastward regionally through the afternoon and evening. Low-level hodographs will become quite large, with 0-1 km SRH increasing into at least the 250-500 m2/s2 range. This will support tornado potential with any low-topped supercells that are able to develop and persist within Helene's rain bands. Some tornado potential will reach into parts of North Carolina later tonight. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are expected today into tonight across the coastal Southeast in association with Hurricane Helene. The greatest threat is expected across parts of Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. ...Florida/Georgia and the Carolinas... Hurricane Helene, centered 300-350 miles southwest of Tampa early this morning, will continue to move north-northeast and accelerate over the eastern/northeastern Gulf of Mexico today into tonight, with landfall expected in the Florida Big Bend region this evening. Consult National Hurricane Center forecasts and advisories for more track, intensity, and impact details. Related to Helene's large size and increasingly fast forward speed, an associated increase of low-level flow/shear will occur across the Florida Peninsula today, southeast Georgia and parts of South Carolina by afternoon, and eventually into parts of North Carolina tonight. Low-level shear (and moisture/buoyancy) is already supportive of a tornado risk in some areas regionally, reference 12z observed soundings from Miami and especially Tampa Bay. However, this tornado-supportive scenario will diurnally increase and expand north-northeastward regionally through the afternoon and evening. Low-level hodographs will become quite large, with 0-1 km SRH increasing into at least the 250-500 m2/s2 range. This will support tornado potential with any low-topped supercells that are able to develop and persist within Helene's rain bands. Some tornado potential will reach into parts of North Carolina later tonight. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are expected today into tonight across the coastal Southeast in association with Hurricane Helene. The greatest threat is expected across parts of Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. ...Florida/Georgia and the Carolinas... Hurricane Helene, centered 300-350 miles southwest of Tampa early this morning, will continue to move north-northeast and accelerate over the eastern/northeastern Gulf of Mexico today into tonight, with landfall expected in the Florida Big Bend region this evening. Consult National Hurricane Center forecasts and advisories for more track, intensity, and impact details. Related to Helene's large size and increasingly fast forward speed, an associated increase of low-level flow/shear will occur across the Florida Peninsula today, southeast Georgia and parts of South Carolina by afternoon, and eventually into parts of North Carolina tonight. Low-level shear (and moisture/buoyancy) is already supportive of a tornado risk in some areas regionally, reference 12z observed soundings from Miami and especially Tampa Bay. However, this tornado-supportive scenario will diurnally increase and expand north-northeastward regionally through the afternoon and evening. Low-level hodographs will become quite large, with 0-1 km SRH increasing into at least the 250-500 m2/s2 range. This will support tornado potential with any low-topped supercells that are able to develop and persist within Helene's rain bands. Some tornado potential will reach into parts of North Carolina later tonight. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are expected today into tonight across the coastal Southeast in association with Hurricane Helene. The greatest threat is expected across parts of Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. ...Florida/Georgia and the Carolinas... Hurricane Helene, centered 300-350 miles southwest of Tampa early this morning, will continue to move north-northeast and accelerate over the eastern/northeastern Gulf of Mexico today into tonight, with landfall expected in the Florida Big Bend region this evening. Consult National Hurricane Center forecasts and advisories for more track, intensity, and impact details. Related to Helene's large size and increasingly fast forward speed, an associated increase of low-level flow/shear will occur across the Florida Peninsula today, southeast Georgia and parts of South Carolina by afternoon, and eventually into parts of North Carolina tonight. Low-level shear (and moisture/buoyancy) is already supportive of a tornado risk in some areas regionally, reference 12z observed soundings from Miami and especially Tampa Bay. However, this tornado-supportive scenario will diurnally increase and expand north-northeastward regionally through the afternoon and evening. Low-level hodographs will become quite large, with 0-1 km SRH increasing into at least the 250-500 m2/s2 range. This will support tornado potential with any low-topped supercells that are able to develop and persist within Helene's rain bands. Some tornado potential will reach into parts of North Carolina later tonight. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are expected today into tonight across the coastal Southeast in association with Hurricane Helene. The greatest threat is expected across parts of Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. ...Florida/Georgia and the Carolinas... Hurricane Helene, centered 300-350 miles southwest of Tampa early this morning, will continue to move north-northeast and accelerate over the eastern/northeastern Gulf of Mexico today into tonight, with landfall expected in the Florida Big Bend region this evening. Consult National Hurricane Center forecasts and advisories for more track, intensity, and impact details. Related to Helene's large size and increasingly fast forward speed, an associated increase of low-level flow/shear will occur across the Florida Peninsula today, southeast Georgia and parts of South Carolina by afternoon, and eventually into parts of North Carolina tonight. Low-level shear (and moisture/buoyancy) is already supportive of a tornado risk in some areas regionally, reference 12z observed soundings from Miami and especially Tampa Bay. However, this tornado-supportive scenario will diurnally increase and expand north-northeastward regionally through the afternoon and evening. Low-level hodographs will become quite large, with 0-1 km SRH increasing into at least the 250-500 m2/s2 range. This will support tornado potential with any low-topped supercells that are able to develop and persist within Helene's rain bands. Some tornado potential will reach into parts of North Carolina later tonight. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are expected today into tonight across the coastal Southeast in association with Hurricane Helene. The greatest threat is expected across parts of Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. ...Florida/Georgia and the Carolinas... Hurricane Helene, centered 300-350 miles southwest of Tampa early this morning, will continue to move north-northeast and accelerate over the eastern/northeastern Gulf of Mexico today into tonight, with landfall expected in the Florida Big Bend region this evening. Consult National Hurricane Center forecasts and advisories for more track, intensity, and impact details. Related to Helene's large size and increasingly fast forward speed, an associated increase of low-level flow/shear will occur across the Florida Peninsula today, southeast Georgia and parts of South Carolina by afternoon, and eventually into parts of North Carolina tonight. Low-level shear (and moisture/buoyancy) is already supportive of a tornado risk in some areas regionally, reference 12z observed soundings from Miami and especially Tampa Bay. However, this tornado-supportive scenario will diurnally increase and expand north-northeastward regionally through the afternoon and evening. Low-level hodographs will become quite large, with 0-1 km SRH increasing into at least the 250-500 m2/s2 range. This will support tornado potential with any low-topped supercells that are able to develop and persist within Helene's rain bands. Some tornado potential will reach into parts of North Carolina later tonight. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are expected today into tonight across the coastal Southeast in association with Hurricane Helene. The greatest threat is expected across parts of Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. ...Florida/Georgia and the Carolinas... Hurricane Helene, centered 300-350 miles southwest of Tampa early this morning, will continue to move north-northeast and accelerate over the eastern/northeastern Gulf of Mexico today into tonight, with landfall expected in the Florida Big Bend region this evening. Consult National Hurricane Center forecasts and advisories for more track, intensity, and impact details. Related to Helene's large size and increasingly fast forward speed, an associated increase of low-level flow/shear will occur across the Florida Peninsula today, southeast Georgia and parts of South Carolina by afternoon, and eventually into parts of North Carolina tonight. Low-level shear (and moisture/buoyancy) is already supportive of a tornado risk in some areas regionally, reference 12z observed soundings from Miami and especially Tampa Bay. However, this tornado-supportive scenario will diurnally increase and expand north-northeastward regionally through the afternoon and evening. Low-level hodographs will become quite large, with 0-1 km SRH increasing into at least the 250-500 m2/s2 range. This will support tornado potential with any low-topped supercells that are able to develop and persist within Helene's rain bands. Some tornado potential will reach into parts of North Carolina later tonight. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are expected today into tonight across the coastal Southeast in association with Hurricane Helene. The greatest threat is expected across parts of Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. ...Florida/Georgia and the Carolinas... Hurricane Helene, centered 300-350 miles southwest of Tampa early this morning, will continue to move north-northeast and accelerate over the eastern/northeastern Gulf of Mexico today into tonight, with landfall expected in the Florida Big Bend region this evening. Consult National Hurricane Center forecasts and advisories for more track, intensity, and impact details. Related to Helene's large size and increasingly fast forward speed, an associated increase of low-level flow/shear will occur across the Florida Peninsula today, southeast Georgia and parts of South Carolina by afternoon, and eventually into parts of North Carolina tonight. Low-level shear (and moisture/buoyancy) is already supportive of a tornado risk in some areas regionally, reference 12z observed soundings from Miami and especially Tampa Bay. However, this tornado-supportive scenario will diurnally increase and expand north-northeastward regionally through the afternoon and evening. Low-level hodographs will become quite large, with 0-1 km SRH increasing into at least the 250-500 m2/s2 range. This will support tornado potential with any low-topped supercells that are able to develop and persist within Helene's rain bands. Some tornado potential will reach into parts of North Carolina later tonight. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are expected today into tonight across the coastal Southeast in association with Hurricane Helene. The greatest threat is expected across parts of Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. ...Florida/Georgia and the Carolinas... Hurricane Helene, centered 300-350 miles southwest of Tampa early this morning, will continue to move north-northeast and accelerate over the eastern/northeastern Gulf of Mexico today into tonight, with landfall expected in the Florida Big Bend region this evening. Consult National Hurricane Center forecasts and advisories for more track, intensity, and impact details. Related to Helene's large size and increasingly fast forward speed, an associated increase of low-level flow/shear will occur across the Florida Peninsula today, southeast Georgia and parts of South Carolina by afternoon, and eventually into parts of North Carolina tonight. Low-level shear (and moisture/buoyancy) is already supportive of a tornado risk in some areas regionally, reference 12z observed soundings from Miami and especially Tampa Bay. However, this tornado-supportive scenario will diurnally increase and expand north-northeastward regionally through the afternoon and evening. Low-level hodographs will become quite large, with 0-1 km SRH increasing into at least the 250-500 m2/s2 range. This will support tornado potential with any low-topped supercells that are able to develop and persist within Helene's rain bands. Some tornado potential will reach into parts of North Carolina later tonight. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are expected today into tonight across the coastal Southeast in association with Hurricane Helene. The greatest threat is expected across parts of Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. ...Florida/Georgia and the Carolinas... Hurricane Helene, centered 300-350 miles southwest of Tampa early this morning, will continue to move north-northeast and accelerate over the eastern/northeastern Gulf of Mexico today into tonight, with landfall expected in the Florida Big Bend region this evening. Consult National Hurricane Center forecasts and advisories for more track, intensity, and impact details. Related to Helene's large size and increasingly fast forward speed, an associated increase of low-level flow/shear will occur across the Florida Peninsula today, southeast Georgia and parts of South Carolina by afternoon, and eventually into parts of North Carolina tonight. Low-level shear (and moisture/buoyancy) is already supportive of a tornado risk in some areas regionally, reference 12z observed soundings from Miami and especially Tampa Bay. However, this tornado-supportive scenario will diurnally increase and expand north-northeastward regionally through the afternoon and evening. Low-level hodographs will become quite large, with 0-1 km SRH increasing into at least the 250-500 m2/s2 range. This will support tornado potential with any low-topped supercells that are able to develop and persist within Helene's rain bands. Some tornado potential will reach into parts of North Carolina later tonight. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are expected today into tonight across the coastal Southeast in association with Hurricane Helene. The greatest threat is expected across parts of Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. ...Florida/Georgia and the Carolinas... Hurricane Helene, centered 300-350 miles southwest of Tampa early this morning, will continue to move north-northeast and accelerate over the eastern/northeastern Gulf of Mexico today into tonight, with landfall expected in the Florida Big Bend region this evening. Consult National Hurricane Center forecasts and advisories for more track, intensity, and impact details. Related to Helene's large size and increasingly fast forward speed, an associated increase of low-level flow/shear will occur across the Florida Peninsula today, southeast Georgia and parts of South Carolina by afternoon, and eventually into parts of North Carolina tonight. Low-level shear (and moisture/buoyancy) is already supportive of a tornado risk in some areas regionally, reference 12z observed soundings from Miami and especially Tampa Bay. However, this tornado-supportive scenario will diurnally increase and expand north-northeastward regionally through the afternoon and evening. Low-level hodographs will become quite large, with 0-1 km SRH increasing into at least the 250-500 m2/s2 range. This will support tornado potential with any low-topped supercells that are able to develop and persist within Helene's rain bands. Some tornado potential will reach into parts of North Carolina later tonight. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are expected today into tonight across the coastal Southeast in association with Hurricane Helene. The greatest threat is expected across parts of Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. ...Florida/Georgia and the Carolinas... Hurricane Helene, centered 300-350 miles southwest of Tampa early this morning, will continue to move north-northeast and accelerate over the eastern/northeastern Gulf of Mexico today into tonight, with landfall expected in the Florida Big Bend region this evening. Consult National Hurricane Center forecasts and advisories for more track, intensity, and impact details. Related to Helene's large size and increasingly fast forward speed, an associated increase of low-level flow/shear will occur across the Florida Peninsula today, southeast Georgia and parts of South Carolina by afternoon, and eventually into parts of North Carolina tonight. Low-level shear (and moisture/buoyancy) is already supportive of a tornado risk in some areas regionally, reference 12z observed soundings from Miami and especially Tampa Bay. However, this tornado-supportive scenario will diurnally increase and expand north-northeastward regionally through the afternoon and evening. Low-level hodographs will become quite large, with 0-1 km SRH increasing into at least the 250-500 m2/s2 range. This will support tornado potential with any low-topped supercells that are able to develop and persist within Helene's rain bands. Some tornado potential will reach into parts of North Carolina later tonight. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are expected today into tonight across the coastal Southeast in association with Hurricane Helene. The greatest threat is expected across parts of Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. ...Florida/Georgia and the Carolinas... Hurricane Helene, centered 300-350 miles southwest of Tampa early this morning, will continue to move north-northeast and accelerate over the eastern/northeastern Gulf of Mexico today into tonight, with landfall expected in the Florida Big Bend region this evening. Consult National Hurricane Center forecasts and advisories for more track, intensity, and impact details. Related to Helene's large size and increasingly fast forward speed, an associated increase of low-level flow/shear will occur across the Florida Peninsula today, southeast Georgia and parts of South Carolina by afternoon, and eventually into parts of North Carolina tonight. Low-level shear (and moisture/buoyancy) is already supportive of a tornado risk in some areas regionally, reference 12z observed soundings from Miami and especially Tampa Bay. However, this tornado-supportive scenario will diurnally increase and expand north-northeastward regionally through the afternoon and evening. Low-level hodographs will become quite large, with 0-1 km SRH increasing into at least the 250-500 m2/s2 range. This will support tornado potential with any low-topped supercells that are able to develop and persist within Helene's rain bands. Some tornado potential will reach into parts of North Carolina later tonight. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 09/26/2024 Read more

WW 0683 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 683 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..09/26/24 ATTN...WFO...MLB...MFL...TBW...JAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 683 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC009-011-015-017-021-027-043-049-051-053-055-057-061-069-071- 075-081-083-085-086-087-093-095-097-099-101-103-105-111-115-117- 119-127-261340- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BREVARD BROWARD CHARLOTTE CITRUS COLLIER DESOTO GLADES HARDEE HENDRY HERNANDO HIGHLANDS HILLSBOROUGH INDIAN RIVER LAKE LEE LEVY MANATEE MARION MARTIN MIAMI-DADE MONROE OKEECHOBEE ORANGE OSCEOLA PALM BEACH PASCO PINELLAS POLK ST. LUCIE SARASOTA SEMINOLE SUMTER VOLUSIA AMZ550-552-555-610-630-650-651-GMZ656-657-830-836-850-853-856- 261340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0683 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 683 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..09/26/24 ATTN...WFO...MLB...MFL...TBW...JAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 683 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC009-011-015-017-021-027-043-049-051-053-055-057-061-069-071- 075-081-083-085-086-087-093-095-097-099-101-103-105-111-115-117- 119-127-261340- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BREVARD BROWARD CHARLOTTE CITRUS COLLIER DESOTO GLADES HARDEE HENDRY HERNANDO HIGHLANDS HILLSBOROUGH INDIAN RIVER LAKE LEE LEVY MANATEE MARION MARTIN MIAMI-DADE MONROE OKEECHOBEE ORANGE OSCEOLA PALM BEACH PASCO PINELLAS POLK ST. LUCIE SARASOTA SEMINOLE SUMTER VOLUSIA AMZ550-552-555-610-630-650-651-GMZ656-657-830-836-850-853-856- 261340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0683 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 683 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..09/26/24 ATTN...WFO...MLB...MFL...TBW...JAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 683 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC009-011-015-017-021-027-043-049-051-053-055-057-061-069-071- 075-081-083-085-086-087-093-095-097-099-101-103-105-111-115-117- 119-127-261340- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BREVARD BROWARD CHARLOTTE CITRUS COLLIER DESOTO GLADES HARDEE HENDRY HERNANDO HIGHLANDS HILLSBOROUGH INDIAN RIVER LAKE LEE LEVY MANATEE MARION MARTIN MIAMI-DADE MONROE OKEECHOBEE ORANGE OSCEOLA PALM BEACH PASCO PINELLAS POLK ST. LUCIE SARASOTA SEMINOLE SUMTER VOLUSIA AMZ550-552-555-610-630-650-651-GMZ656-657-830-836-850-853-856- 261340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more