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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be possible this evening across parts of the northern Plains. An isolated tornado threat will continue across parts of eastern North Carolina. A marginal severe threat may continue in parts of the Four Corners region. ...Northern Plains... Southwest mid-level flow is evident on water vapor imagery over the north-central U.S. A shortwave trough appears to be in northern North Dakota, where the RAP is analyzing a distinct vorticity max. At the surface, a low is in southeast Montana with a warm front extending east-northeastward across central and northeast North Dakota. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing to the north of the front from northern North Dakota into northwest Minnesota. This activity is located along and to the north of an axis of moderate instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Near this convection, regional WSR-88D VWPs have 0-6 km shear around 35 knots, with a substantial amount of directional shear in the low to mid-levels. RAP forecast soundings in the same area have steep 700-500 mb lapse rates. This environment will support a potential for supercells with isolated large hail and severe wind gusts. Organized bowing line segments with a wind-damage threat will also be possible, especially in areas where low-level lapse rates are steep due to warmer surface temperatures. The severe threat will likely continue through much of the evening, as a strong to severe line segment moves east-northeastward across north-central and northeastern North Dakota. ...Eastern North Carolina... A tropical cyclone will move northwestward across northern South Carolina this evening. Rainbands extend from north of the center east-southeastward across central and eastern North Carolina. The latest RAP has moderate instability in place along much of the North Carolina coast, with MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. The Moorehead City WSR-88D VWP has a gradually veering wind profile from the surface to about 4 km, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 320 m2/s2. This suggesting the environment will be favorable for rotating storms and possibly tornadoes. The tornado threat will be maximized with cells that remain semi-discrete and are close to the coast where surface dewpoints are higher. The threat is expected to gradually shift northward into the Cape Hatteras area by late evening. ...Four Corners Region... According to water vapor imagery, a mid-level low is located over northern California, with southwest flow from much of the Desert Southwest into the central Rockies. The RAP has a pocket of instability near the Four Corners with another in eastern Arizona. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are ongoing in these areas. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates should be enough for a marginal severe this evening, with isolated severe winds and hail as the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 09/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be possible this evening across parts of the northern Plains. An isolated tornado threat will continue across parts of eastern North Carolina. A marginal severe threat may continue in parts of the Four Corners region. ...Northern Plains... Southwest mid-level flow is evident on water vapor imagery over the north-central U.S. A shortwave trough appears to be in northern North Dakota, where the RAP is analyzing a distinct vorticity max. At the surface, a low is in southeast Montana with a warm front extending east-northeastward across central and northeast North Dakota. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing to the north of the front from northern North Dakota into northwest Minnesota. This activity is located along and to the north of an axis of moderate instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Near this convection, regional WSR-88D VWPs have 0-6 km shear around 35 knots, with a substantial amount of directional shear in the low to mid-levels. RAP forecast soundings in the same area have steep 700-500 mb lapse rates. This environment will support a potential for supercells with isolated large hail and severe wind gusts. Organized bowing line segments with a wind-damage threat will also be possible, especially in areas where low-level lapse rates are steep due to warmer surface temperatures. The severe threat will likely continue through much of the evening, as a strong to severe line segment moves east-northeastward across north-central and northeastern North Dakota. ...Eastern North Carolina... A tropical cyclone will move northwestward across northern South Carolina this evening. Rainbands extend from north of the center east-southeastward across central and eastern North Carolina. The latest RAP has moderate instability in place along much of the North Carolina coast, with MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. The Moorehead City WSR-88D VWP has a gradually veering wind profile from the surface to about 4 km, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 320 m2/s2. This suggesting the environment will be favorable for rotating storms and possibly tornadoes. The tornado threat will be maximized with cells that remain semi-discrete and are close to the coast where surface dewpoints are higher. The threat is expected to gradually shift northward into the Cape Hatteras area by late evening. ...Four Corners Region... According to water vapor imagery, a mid-level low is located over northern California, with southwest flow from much of the Desert Southwest into the central Rockies. The RAP has a pocket of instability near the Four Corners with another in eastern Arizona. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are ongoing in these areas. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates should be enough for a marginal severe this evening, with isolated severe winds and hail as the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 09/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be possible this evening across parts of the northern Plains. An isolated tornado threat will continue across parts of eastern North Carolina. A marginal severe threat may continue in parts of the Four Corners region. ...Northern Plains... Southwest mid-level flow is evident on water vapor imagery over the north-central U.S. A shortwave trough appears to be in northern North Dakota, where the RAP is analyzing a distinct vorticity max. At the surface, a low is in southeast Montana with a warm front extending east-northeastward across central and northeast North Dakota. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing to the north of the front from northern North Dakota into northwest Minnesota. This activity is located along and to the north of an axis of moderate instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Near this convection, regional WSR-88D VWPs have 0-6 km shear around 35 knots, with a substantial amount of directional shear in the low to mid-levels. RAP forecast soundings in the same area have steep 700-500 mb lapse rates. This environment will support a potential for supercells with isolated large hail and severe wind gusts. Organized bowing line segments with a wind-damage threat will also be possible, especially in areas where low-level lapse rates are steep due to warmer surface temperatures. The severe threat will likely continue through much of the evening, as a strong to severe line segment moves east-northeastward across north-central and northeastern North Dakota. ...Eastern North Carolina... A tropical cyclone will move northwestward across northern South Carolina this evening. Rainbands extend from north of the center east-southeastward across central and eastern North Carolina. The latest RAP has moderate instability in place along much of the North Carolina coast, with MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. The Moorehead City WSR-88D VWP has a gradually veering wind profile from the surface to about 4 km, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 320 m2/s2. This suggesting the environment will be favorable for rotating storms and possibly tornadoes. The tornado threat will be maximized with cells that remain semi-discrete and are close to the coast where surface dewpoints are higher. The threat is expected to gradually shift northward into the Cape Hatteras area by late evening. ...Four Corners Region... According to water vapor imagery, a mid-level low is located over northern California, with southwest flow from much of the Desert Southwest into the central Rockies. The RAP has a pocket of instability near the Four Corners with another in eastern Arizona. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are ongoing in these areas. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates should be enough for a marginal severe this evening, with isolated severe winds and hail as the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 09/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be possible this evening across parts of the northern Plains. An isolated tornado threat will continue across parts of eastern North Carolina. A marginal severe threat may continue in parts of the Four Corners region. ...Northern Plains... Southwest mid-level flow is evident on water vapor imagery over the north-central U.S. A shortwave trough appears to be in northern North Dakota, where the RAP is analyzing a distinct vorticity max. At the surface, a low is in southeast Montana with a warm front extending east-northeastward across central and northeast North Dakota. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing to the north of the front from northern North Dakota into northwest Minnesota. This activity is located along and to the north of an axis of moderate instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Near this convection, regional WSR-88D VWPs have 0-6 km shear around 35 knots, with a substantial amount of directional shear in the low to mid-levels. RAP forecast soundings in the same area have steep 700-500 mb lapse rates. This environment will support a potential for supercells with isolated large hail and severe wind gusts. Organized bowing line segments with a wind-damage threat will also be possible, especially in areas where low-level lapse rates are steep due to warmer surface temperatures. The severe threat will likely continue through much of the evening, as a strong to severe line segment moves east-northeastward across north-central and northeastern North Dakota. ...Eastern North Carolina... A tropical cyclone will move northwestward across northern South Carolina this evening. Rainbands extend from north of the center east-southeastward across central and eastern North Carolina. The latest RAP has moderate instability in place along much of the North Carolina coast, with MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. The Moorehead City WSR-88D VWP has a gradually veering wind profile from the surface to about 4 km, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 320 m2/s2. This suggesting the environment will be favorable for rotating storms and possibly tornadoes. The tornado threat will be maximized with cells that remain semi-discrete and are close to the coast where surface dewpoints are higher. The threat is expected to gradually shift northward into the Cape Hatteras area by late evening. ...Four Corners Region... According to water vapor imagery, a mid-level low is located over northern California, with southwest flow from much of the Desert Southwest into the central Rockies. The RAP has a pocket of instability near the Four Corners with another in eastern Arizona. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are ongoing in these areas. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates should be enough for a marginal severe this evening, with isolated severe winds and hail as the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 09/17/2024 Read more

WW 0673 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0673 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 162314
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Sep 16 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Sep 16 23:01:01 UTC 2024.

No watches are valid as of Mon Sep 16 23:01:01 UTC 2024.

MD 2074 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND FAR NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 2074 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern North Dakota and far northwestern Minnesota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 162059Z - 162300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Damaging gusts, a few hail reports, and perhaps a tornado or two are possible this afternoon and evening across portions of eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota. A watch may be needed in the next hour or two. DISCUSSION...With a weak mid-level shortwave trough moving across the northern CONUS, storms are developing near a remnant boundary across portions of northern North Dakota this afternoon. South of this boundary, solar heating has resulted in air mass recovery in the wake of an MCS this morning. Dewpoints across central North Dakota are in the upper 60s and low 70s with temperatures generally near 80, resulting in appreciable CAPE. Additionally, some shear is present, with 10-15 kts 0-1 km shear from the KBIS VWP and 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear per mesoanalysis. With initial discrete convection, some severe hail is expected given deep CAPE profiles and modest low-level shear. Additionally, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out, given an increasing low-level jet this evening. However, the window for such a tornado threat may be short before convection grows upscale due to merging cold pools. From there, a damaging wind threat should become more dominant through the evening hours. ..Supinie/Gleason.. 09/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... LAT...LON 49109754 49039681 48739677 48189700 47389805 46959977 47030117 47400170 47960158 48380098 49089921 49109754 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z Mid-level troughing is expected to persist over much of the western CONUS through the extended forecast period. At the same time, ridging is expected to build over the central and eastern parts of the country keeping the upper-level pattern relatively stagnant. By midweek, a mid-level low associated with broader troughing over the West will eject over the northern Rockies/Plains. Strong surface winds are expected near a deepening low and cold front, but widespread wetting rainfall is also expected. This pattern will continue later in the week and into next weekend as a second trough is forecast to eject over the central and southern Plains. While strong winds are again expected, area fuels are also likely to be tempered by rainfall. Thus, fire-weather concerns appear modest through the next 7 days. ...Plains D3/Wed-D6/Sat... As the aforementioned troughing shifts eastward, several more prominent impulses will move over the Plains D3/Wed and D6/Sat. Strong lee cyclogenesis should accompany each of these upper-level troughs, bolstering surface winds (20-25 mph) over much of the Plains through the week and early weekend. However, ongoing moisture return will support only modestly low diurnal RH values, with widespread wetting rainfall also likely ahead of strong cold fronts associated with the deepening surface lows. This should temper area fuels, and casts significant uncertainty on the areal/temporal overlap of dry and windy conditions. While some risk for elevated fire-weather conditions is possible over parts of the southern and central High Plains, confidence remains too low to introduce probabilities. ..Lyons.. 09/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z Mid-level troughing is expected to persist over much of the western CONUS through the extended forecast period. At the same time, ridging is expected to build over the central and eastern parts of the country keeping the upper-level pattern relatively stagnant. By midweek, a mid-level low associated with broader troughing over the West will eject over the northern Rockies/Plains. Strong surface winds are expected near a deepening low and cold front, but widespread wetting rainfall is also expected. This pattern will continue later in the week and into next weekend as a second trough is forecast to eject over the central and southern Plains. While strong winds are again expected, area fuels are also likely to be tempered by rainfall. Thus, fire-weather concerns appear modest through the next 7 days. ...Plains D3/Wed-D6/Sat... As the aforementioned troughing shifts eastward, several more prominent impulses will move over the Plains D3/Wed and D6/Sat. Strong lee cyclogenesis should accompany each of these upper-level troughs, bolstering surface winds (20-25 mph) over much of the Plains through the week and early weekend. However, ongoing moisture return will support only modestly low diurnal RH values, with widespread wetting rainfall also likely ahead of strong cold fronts associated with the deepening surface lows. This should temper area fuels, and casts significant uncertainty on the areal/temporal overlap of dry and windy conditions. While some risk for elevated fire-weather conditions is possible over parts of the southern and central High Plains, confidence remains too low to introduce probabilities. ..Lyons.. 09/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z Mid-level troughing is expected to persist over much of the western CONUS through the extended forecast period. At the same time, ridging is expected to build over the central and eastern parts of the country keeping the upper-level pattern relatively stagnant. By midweek, a mid-level low associated with broader troughing over the West will eject over the northern Rockies/Plains. Strong surface winds are expected near a deepening low and cold front, but widespread wetting rainfall is also expected. This pattern will continue later in the week and into next weekend as a second trough is forecast to eject over the central and southern Plains. While strong winds are again expected, area fuels are also likely to be tempered by rainfall. Thus, fire-weather concerns appear modest through the next 7 days. ...Plains D3/Wed-D6/Sat... As the aforementioned troughing shifts eastward, several more prominent impulses will move over the Plains D3/Wed and D6/Sat. Strong lee cyclogenesis should accompany each of these upper-level troughs, bolstering surface winds (20-25 mph) over much of the Plains through the week and early weekend. However, ongoing moisture return will support only modestly low diurnal RH values, with widespread wetting rainfall also likely ahead of strong cold fronts associated with the deepening surface lows. This should temper area fuels, and casts significant uncertainty on the areal/temporal overlap of dry and windy conditions. While some risk for elevated fire-weather conditions is possible over parts of the southern and central High Plains, confidence remains too low to introduce probabilities. ..Lyons.. 09/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z Mid-level troughing is expected to persist over much of the western CONUS through the extended forecast period. At the same time, ridging is expected to build over the central and eastern parts of the country keeping the upper-level pattern relatively stagnant. By midweek, a mid-level low associated with broader troughing over the West will eject over the northern Rockies/Plains. Strong surface winds are expected near a deepening low and cold front, but widespread wetting rainfall is also expected. This pattern will continue later in the week and into next weekend as a second trough is forecast to eject over the central and southern Plains. While strong winds are again expected, area fuels are also likely to be tempered by rainfall. Thus, fire-weather concerns appear modest through the next 7 days. ...Plains D3/Wed-D6/Sat... As the aforementioned troughing shifts eastward, several more prominent impulses will move over the Plains D3/Wed and D6/Sat. Strong lee cyclogenesis should accompany each of these upper-level troughs, bolstering surface winds (20-25 mph) over much of the Plains through the week and early weekend. However, ongoing moisture return will support only modestly low diurnal RH values, with widespread wetting rainfall also likely ahead of strong cold fronts associated with the deepening surface lows. This should temper area fuels, and casts significant uncertainty on the areal/temporal overlap of dry and windy conditions. While some risk for elevated fire-weather conditions is possible over parts of the southern and central High Plains, confidence remains too low to introduce probabilities. ..Lyons.. 09/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z Mid-level troughing is expected to persist over much of the western CONUS through the extended forecast period. At the same time, ridging is expected to build over the central and eastern parts of the country keeping the upper-level pattern relatively stagnant. By midweek, a mid-level low associated with broader troughing over the West will eject over the northern Rockies/Plains. Strong surface winds are expected near a deepening low and cold front, but widespread wetting rainfall is also expected. This pattern will continue later in the week and into next weekend as a second trough is forecast to eject over the central and southern Plains. While strong winds are again expected, area fuels are also likely to be tempered by rainfall. Thus, fire-weather concerns appear modest through the next 7 days. ...Plains D3/Wed-D6/Sat... As the aforementioned troughing shifts eastward, several more prominent impulses will move over the Plains D3/Wed and D6/Sat. Strong lee cyclogenesis should accompany each of these upper-level troughs, bolstering surface winds (20-25 mph) over much of the Plains through the week and early weekend. However, ongoing moisture return will support only modestly low diurnal RH values, with widespread wetting rainfall also likely ahead of strong cold fronts associated with the deepening surface lows. This should temper area fuels, and casts significant uncertainty on the areal/temporal overlap of dry and windy conditions. While some risk for elevated fire-weather conditions is possible over parts of the southern and central High Plains, confidence remains too low to introduce probabilities. ..Lyons.. 09/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z Mid-level troughing is expected to persist over much of the western CONUS through the extended forecast period. At the same time, ridging is expected to build over the central and eastern parts of the country keeping the upper-level pattern relatively stagnant. By midweek, a mid-level low associated with broader troughing over the West will eject over the northern Rockies/Plains. Strong surface winds are expected near a deepening low and cold front, but widespread wetting rainfall is also expected. This pattern will continue later in the week and into next weekend as a second trough is forecast to eject over the central and southern Plains. While strong winds are again expected, area fuels are also likely to be tempered by rainfall. Thus, fire-weather concerns appear modest through the next 7 days. ...Plains D3/Wed-D6/Sat... As the aforementioned troughing shifts eastward, several more prominent impulses will move over the Plains D3/Wed and D6/Sat. Strong lee cyclogenesis should accompany each of these upper-level troughs, bolstering surface winds (20-25 mph) over much of the Plains through the week and early weekend. However, ongoing moisture return will support only modestly low diurnal RH values, with widespread wetting rainfall also likely ahead of strong cold fronts associated with the deepening surface lows. This should temper area fuels, and casts significant uncertainty on the areal/temporal overlap of dry and windy conditions. While some risk for elevated fire-weather conditions is possible over parts of the southern and central High Plains, confidence remains too low to introduce probabilities. ..Lyons.. 09/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z Mid-level troughing is expected to persist over much of the western CONUS through the extended forecast period. At the same time, ridging is expected to build over the central and eastern parts of the country keeping the upper-level pattern relatively stagnant. By midweek, a mid-level low associated with broader troughing over the West will eject over the northern Rockies/Plains. Strong surface winds are expected near a deepening low and cold front, but widespread wetting rainfall is also expected. This pattern will continue later in the week and into next weekend as a second trough is forecast to eject over the central and southern Plains. While strong winds are again expected, area fuels are also likely to be tempered by rainfall. Thus, fire-weather concerns appear modest through the next 7 days. ...Plains D3/Wed-D6/Sat... As the aforementioned troughing shifts eastward, several more prominent impulses will move over the Plains D3/Wed and D6/Sat. Strong lee cyclogenesis should accompany each of these upper-level troughs, bolstering surface winds (20-25 mph) over much of the Plains through the week and early weekend. However, ongoing moisture return will support only modestly low diurnal RH values, with widespread wetting rainfall also likely ahead of strong cold fronts associated with the deepening surface lows. This should temper area fuels, and casts significant uncertainty on the areal/temporal overlap of dry and windy conditions. While some risk for elevated fire-weather conditions is possible over parts of the southern and central High Plains, confidence remains too low to introduce probabilities. ..Lyons.. 09/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z Mid-level troughing is expected to persist over much of the western CONUS through the extended forecast period. At the same time, ridging is expected to build over the central and eastern parts of the country keeping the upper-level pattern relatively stagnant. By midweek, a mid-level low associated with broader troughing over the West will eject over the northern Rockies/Plains. Strong surface winds are expected near a deepening low and cold front, but widespread wetting rainfall is also expected. This pattern will continue later in the week and into next weekend as a second trough is forecast to eject over the central and southern Plains. While strong winds are again expected, area fuels are also likely to be tempered by rainfall. Thus, fire-weather concerns appear modest through the next 7 days. ...Plains D3/Wed-D6/Sat... As the aforementioned troughing shifts eastward, several more prominent impulses will move over the Plains D3/Wed and D6/Sat. Strong lee cyclogenesis should accompany each of these upper-level troughs, bolstering surface winds (20-25 mph) over much of the Plains through the week and early weekend. However, ongoing moisture return will support only modestly low diurnal RH values, with widespread wetting rainfall also likely ahead of strong cold fronts associated with the deepening surface lows. This should temper area fuels, and casts significant uncertainty on the areal/temporal overlap of dry and windy conditions. While some risk for elevated fire-weather conditions is possible over parts of the southern and central High Plains, confidence remains too low to introduce probabilities. ..Lyons.. 09/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z Mid-level troughing is expected to persist over much of the western CONUS through the extended forecast period. At the same time, ridging is expected to build over the central and eastern parts of the country keeping the upper-level pattern relatively stagnant. By midweek, a mid-level low associated with broader troughing over the West will eject over the northern Rockies/Plains. Strong surface winds are expected near a deepening low and cold front, but widespread wetting rainfall is also expected. This pattern will continue later in the week and into next weekend as a second trough is forecast to eject over the central and southern Plains. While strong winds are again expected, area fuels are also likely to be tempered by rainfall. Thus, fire-weather concerns appear modest through the next 7 days. ...Plains D3/Wed-D6/Sat... As the aforementioned troughing shifts eastward, several more prominent impulses will move over the Plains D3/Wed and D6/Sat. Strong lee cyclogenesis should accompany each of these upper-level troughs, bolstering surface winds (20-25 mph) over much of the Plains through the week and early weekend. However, ongoing moisture return will support only modestly low diurnal RH values, with widespread wetting rainfall also likely ahead of strong cold fronts associated with the deepening surface lows. This should temper area fuels, and casts significant uncertainty on the areal/temporal overlap of dry and windy conditions. While some risk for elevated fire-weather conditions is possible over parts of the southern and central High Plains, confidence remains too low to introduce probabilities. ..Lyons.. 09/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 2073 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NEVADA...NORTHWESTERN UTAH...AND FAR SOUTHERN IDAHO
Mesoscale Discussion 2073 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Areas affected...portions of northeastern Nevada...northwestern Utah...and far southern Idaho Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 161919Z - 162115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A few severe gusts are possible across portions of northeastern Nevada, northwestern Utah, and far southern Idaho this afternoon. A watch is not currently anticipated. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed across portions of northeastern Nevada to the east of an expansive upper-level closed low centered over central California. Despite seasonably strong mid-level flow across the region (40-50 kts of 500 mb flow), deep-layer shear is not particularly impressive, with approximately 30 kts of effective bulk shear. Additionally, some lingering cloud cover has resulted in slow surface destabilization across portions of the region. In spite of this, however, there are some areas of 9 C/km or greater low-level lapse rates, per mesoanalysis and short-term RAP forecast soundings. This may result in a threat for severe wind gusts across the region this afternoon. Some uncertainty exists with respect to the northward extend of the threat due to the aforementioned cloud cover across portions of southern Idaho and northwestern Utah. Regardless, some multicell clustering is expected with time as storms move to the north-northeast. ..Supinie/Gleason.. 09/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SLC...PIH...VEF...BOI...LKN... LAT...LON 38551378 38301443 38321543 38811623 39661675 41011665 41661624 42111581 42331501 42041387 41491341 40201319 38951345 38551378 Read more

An open burn emergency took effect in unincorporated Vanderburgh County on Aug. 29. On Sept. 6, the ban was extended to Sept. 24 and also included Evansville. Courier and Press (Evansville, Ind.), Sept. 6, 2024