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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing scattered to numerous severe wind gusts and isolated large hail should occur this afternoon and evening across much of the High Plains. Some of the wind gusts may be significant (75+ mph). ...High Plains and Central/Southern Rockies... Expansions have been made to the Slight and Enhanced Risks across the northern/central High Plains to account for latest trends in guidance and observations. The Marginal Risk has also been expanded westward to include more of western CO and western/central WY, where isolated strong to severe winds are already ongoing with high-based convection. A strong upper trough/low over the Great Basin will pivot east-northeastward across the northern/central Rockies through this evening. An associated 50-60 kt mid-level jet will move eastward across the central/southern Rockies this afternoon, and over parts of the adjacent High Plains through this evening. As large-scale ascent with the upper trough and mid-level jet overspreads these regions, a surface low is forecast to deepen over eastern MT through this evening, while another low also develops over the central High Plains. A surface trough will extend southward from the central High Plains low, and it should sharpen as it develops eastward across the central/southern High Plains through the day. Greater low-level moisture, characterized by generally mid 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints, will gradually increase today along/east of the surface trough, while remaining more limited across the higher terrain of the central/southern Rockies. Moderate instability should develop to the east of the surface trough across much of the High Plains through peak afternoon heating. Strengthening deep-layer shear with the approach of the mid-level jet will support organized convection, including some potential for initial supercells across the northern High Plains (eastern MT and vicinity). Related threat for large hail will exist with any of this more discrete convection. Otherwise, thunderstorms will continue to develop this afternoon over the central/southern Rockies while producing isolated strong to severe wind gusts in a weakly unstable but strongly sheared environment. This activity will eventually spread off the higher terrain and into the central/southern High Plains. Steepened low-level lapse rates with robust daytime heating, along with more limited/shallow low-level moisture along/west of the surface trough, will likely support a gradually increasing severe wind threat with the high-based convection spreading east-northeastward across the southern/central Rockies. As these clusters and linear segments encounter greater low-level moisture and related instability along/east of the surface trough across the High Plains late this afternoon into early evening, the threat for scattered to numerous severe wind gusts should increase. This may particularly be the case across parts of the central High Plains, where the best combination of steepened low-level lapse rates, moderate instability, moderate to strong deep-layer shear, and greatest linear convective signal exists in 12Z guidance. Some chance for isolated gusts of 75+ mph may also be realized across this region with the more intense clusters spreading east-northeastward in tandem with the mid-level jet. The threat for severe winds is expected to gradually decrease with eastward extent across the Plains this evening as convection encounters increasing MLCIN with nocturnal cooling of the boundary layer. ...Florida... A weak mid/upper-level low will remain centered over the Southeast today. Modest mid-level westerly flow will persist over FL on the southern periphery of the upper low. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop later this afternoon along/south of a remnant front, and along the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. Even with daytime heating of a rather moist low-level airmass, poor mid-level lapse rates should temper updraft intensities to some extent, even as moderate instability develops. That said, the stronger cores may be capable of producing isolated strong to damaging winds, with 20-25 kt of deep-layer shear aiding in modest thunderstorm organization. Some adjustments have been made to the Marginal Risk across parts of the FL Peninsula, based on latest observational trends and 12Z guidance. ...Southeast Virginia/Northeast North Carolina... A weak convective band is ongoing across far northeast NC into southeast VA, on the northeast side of a mid/upper-level low over the Southeast. Occasional strong/gusty winds may occur with the more robust cores this afternoon as the convective band pivots further into southeast VA. Even so, weak instability, modest low/mid-level flow, and related weak shear should temper overall thunderstorm organization. Accordingly, severe wind potential should remain low. ..Gleason/Moore.. 09/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing scattered to numerous severe wind gusts and isolated large hail should occur this afternoon and evening across much of the High Plains. Some of the wind gusts may be significant (75+ mph). ...High Plains and Central/Southern Rockies... Expansions have been made to the Slight and Enhanced Risks across the northern/central High Plains to account for latest trends in guidance and observations. The Marginal Risk has also been expanded westward to include more of western CO and western/central WY, where isolated strong to severe winds are already ongoing with high-based convection. A strong upper trough/low over the Great Basin will pivot east-northeastward across the northern/central Rockies through this evening. An associated 50-60 kt mid-level jet will move eastward across the central/southern Rockies this afternoon, and over parts of the adjacent High Plains through this evening. As large-scale ascent with the upper trough and mid-level jet overspreads these regions, a surface low is forecast to deepen over eastern MT through this evening, while another low also develops over the central High Plains. A surface trough will extend southward from the central High Plains low, and it should sharpen as it develops eastward across the central/southern High Plains through the day. Greater low-level moisture, characterized by generally mid 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints, will gradually increase today along/east of the surface trough, while remaining more limited across the higher terrain of the central/southern Rockies. Moderate instability should develop to the east of the surface trough across much of the High Plains through peak afternoon heating. Strengthening deep-layer shear with the approach of the mid-level jet will support organized convection, including some potential for initial supercells across the northern High Plains (eastern MT and vicinity). Related threat for large hail will exist with any of this more discrete convection. Otherwise, thunderstorms will continue to develop this afternoon over the central/southern Rockies while producing isolated strong to severe wind gusts in a weakly unstable but strongly sheared environment. This activity will eventually spread off the higher terrain and into the central/southern High Plains. Steepened low-level lapse rates with robust daytime heating, along with more limited/shallow low-level moisture along/west of the surface trough, will likely support a gradually increasing severe wind threat with the high-based convection spreading east-northeastward across the southern/central Rockies. As these clusters and linear segments encounter greater low-level moisture and related instability along/east of the surface trough across the High Plains late this afternoon into early evening, the threat for scattered to numerous severe wind gusts should increase. This may particularly be the case across parts of the central High Plains, where the best combination of steepened low-level lapse rates, moderate instability, moderate to strong deep-layer shear, and greatest linear convective signal exists in 12Z guidance. Some chance for isolated gusts of 75+ mph may also be realized across this region with the more intense clusters spreading east-northeastward in tandem with the mid-level jet. The threat for severe winds is expected to gradually decrease with eastward extent across the Plains this evening as convection encounters increasing MLCIN with nocturnal cooling of the boundary layer. ...Florida... A weak mid/upper-level low will remain centered over the Southeast today. Modest mid-level westerly flow will persist over FL on the southern periphery of the upper low. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop later this afternoon along/south of a remnant front, and along the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. Even with daytime heating of a rather moist low-level airmass, poor mid-level lapse rates should temper updraft intensities to some extent, even as moderate instability develops. That said, the stronger cores may be capable of producing isolated strong to damaging winds, with 20-25 kt of deep-layer shear aiding in modest thunderstorm organization. Some adjustments have been made to the Marginal Risk across parts of the FL Peninsula, based on latest observational trends and 12Z guidance. ...Southeast Virginia/Northeast North Carolina... A weak convective band is ongoing across far northeast NC into southeast VA, on the northeast side of a mid/upper-level low over the Southeast. Occasional strong/gusty winds may occur with the more robust cores this afternoon as the convective band pivots further into southeast VA. Even so, weak instability, modest low/mid-level flow, and related weak shear should temper overall thunderstorm organization. Accordingly, severe wind potential should remain low. ..Gleason/Moore.. 09/17/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...17z Update... No changes. Spotty elevated conditions are possible owing to strong southerly winds ahead of a cold front. Strong gusts may linger after the frontal passage and with shower/thunderstorms expected later today. Fire concerns will remain highest within patchy dry fuels across the southern most portions of the NE panhandle where less rainfall and lower humidity recoveries have occurred. See the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 09/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough, accompanied by strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow, will overspread the northern/central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A related lee cyclone will deepen near western SD, promoting a tight pressure gradient and 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds (with higher gusts) over portions of western NE during the afternoon. Here, diurnal heating along the western edge of the richer boundary-layer moisture plume should yield 20-30 percent RH. Despite these marginal RH reductions, the strong/gusty winds will still favor a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions, before a cold front and related precipitation overspread the area during the evening. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...17z Update... No changes. Spotty elevated conditions are possible owing to strong southerly winds ahead of a cold front. Strong gusts may linger after the frontal passage and with shower/thunderstorms expected later today. Fire concerns will remain highest within patchy dry fuels across the southern most portions of the NE panhandle where less rainfall and lower humidity recoveries have occurred. See the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 09/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough, accompanied by strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow, will overspread the northern/central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A related lee cyclone will deepen near western SD, promoting a tight pressure gradient and 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds (with higher gusts) over portions of western NE during the afternoon. Here, diurnal heating along the western edge of the richer boundary-layer moisture plume should yield 20-30 percent RH. Despite these marginal RH reductions, the strong/gusty winds will still favor a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions, before a cold front and related precipitation overspread the area during the evening. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...17z Update... No changes. Spotty elevated conditions are possible owing to strong southerly winds ahead of a cold front. Strong gusts may linger after the frontal passage and with shower/thunderstorms expected later today. Fire concerns will remain highest within patchy dry fuels across the southern most portions of the NE panhandle where less rainfall and lower humidity recoveries have occurred. See the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 09/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough, accompanied by strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow, will overspread the northern/central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A related lee cyclone will deepen near western SD, promoting a tight pressure gradient and 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds (with higher gusts) over portions of western NE during the afternoon. Here, diurnal heating along the western edge of the richer boundary-layer moisture plume should yield 20-30 percent RH. Despite these marginal RH reductions, the strong/gusty winds will still favor a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions, before a cold front and related precipitation overspread the area during the evening. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...17z Update... No changes. Spotty elevated conditions are possible owing to strong southerly winds ahead of a cold front. Strong gusts may linger after the frontal passage and with shower/thunderstorms expected later today. Fire concerns will remain highest within patchy dry fuels across the southern most portions of the NE panhandle where less rainfall and lower humidity recoveries have occurred. See the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 09/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough, accompanied by strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow, will overspread the northern/central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A related lee cyclone will deepen near western SD, promoting a tight pressure gradient and 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds (with higher gusts) over portions of western NE during the afternoon. Here, diurnal heating along the western edge of the richer boundary-layer moisture plume should yield 20-30 percent RH. Despite these marginal RH reductions, the strong/gusty winds will still favor a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions, before a cold front and related precipitation overspread the area during the evening. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...17z Update... No changes. Spotty elevated conditions are possible owing to strong southerly winds ahead of a cold front. Strong gusts may linger after the frontal passage and with shower/thunderstorms expected later today. Fire concerns will remain highest within patchy dry fuels across the southern most portions of the NE panhandle where less rainfall and lower humidity recoveries have occurred. See the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 09/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough, accompanied by strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow, will overspread the northern/central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A related lee cyclone will deepen near western SD, promoting a tight pressure gradient and 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds (with higher gusts) over portions of western NE during the afternoon. Here, diurnal heating along the western edge of the richer boundary-layer moisture plume should yield 20-30 percent RH. Despite these marginal RH reductions, the strong/gusty winds will still favor a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions, before a cold front and related precipitation overspread the area during the evening. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...17z Update... No changes. Spotty elevated conditions are possible owing to strong southerly winds ahead of a cold front. Strong gusts may linger after the frontal passage and with shower/thunderstorms expected later today. Fire concerns will remain highest within patchy dry fuels across the southern most portions of the NE panhandle where less rainfall and lower humidity recoveries have occurred. See the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 09/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough, accompanied by strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow, will overspread the northern/central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A related lee cyclone will deepen near western SD, promoting a tight pressure gradient and 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds (with higher gusts) over portions of western NE during the afternoon. Here, diurnal heating along the western edge of the richer boundary-layer moisture plume should yield 20-30 percent RH. Despite these marginal RH reductions, the strong/gusty winds will still favor a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions, before a cold front and related precipitation overspread the area during the evening. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...17z Update... No changes. Spotty elevated conditions are possible owing to strong southerly winds ahead of a cold front. Strong gusts may linger after the frontal passage and with shower/thunderstorms expected later today. Fire concerns will remain highest within patchy dry fuels across the southern most portions of the NE panhandle where less rainfall and lower humidity recoveries have occurred. See the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 09/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough, accompanied by strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow, will overspread the northern/central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A related lee cyclone will deepen near western SD, promoting a tight pressure gradient and 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds (with higher gusts) over portions of western NE during the afternoon. Here, diurnal heating along the western edge of the richer boundary-layer moisture plume should yield 20-30 percent RH. Despite these marginal RH reductions, the strong/gusty winds will still favor a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions, before a cold front and related precipitation overspread the area during the evening. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...17z Update... No changes. Spotty elevated conditions are possible owing to strong southerly winds ahead of a cold front. Strong gusts may linger after the frontal passage and with shower/thunderstorms expected later today. Fire concerns will remain highest within patchy dry fuels across the southern most portions of the NE panhandle where less rainfall and lower humidity recoveries have occurred. See the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 09/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough, accompanied by strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow, will overspread the northern/central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A related lee cyclone will deepen near western SD, promoting a tight pressure gradient and 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds (with higher gusts) over portions of western NE during the afternoon. Here, diurnal heating along the western edge of the richer boundary-layer moisture plume should yield 20-30 percent RH. Despite these marginal RH reductions, the strong/gusty winds will still favor a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions, before a cold front and related precipitation overspread the area during the evening. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...17z Update... No changes. Spotty elevated conditions are possible owing to strong southerly winds ahead of a cold front. Strong gusts may linger after the frontal passage and with shower/thunderstorms expected later today. Fire concerns will remain highest within patchy dry fuels across the southern most portions of the NE panhandle where less rainfall and lower humidity recoveries have occurred. See the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 09/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough, accompanied by strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow, will overspread the northern/central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A related lee cyclone will deepen near western SD, promoting a tight pressure gradient and 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds (with higher gusts) over portions of western NE during the afternoon. Here, diurnal heating along the western edge of the richer boundary-layer moisture plume should yield 20-30 percent RH. Despite these marginal RH reductions, the strong/gusty winds will still favor a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions, before a cold front and related precipitation overspread the area during the evening. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...17z Update... No changes. Spotty elevated conditions are possible owing to strong southerly winds ahead of a cold front. Strong gusts may linger after the frontal passage and with shower/thunderstorms expected later today. Fire concerns will remain highest within patchy dry fuels across the southern most portions of the NE panhandle where less rainfall and lower humidity recoveries have occurred. See the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 09/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough, accompanied by strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow, will overspread the northern/central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A related lee cyclone will deepen near western SD, promoting a tight pressure gradient and 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds (with higher gusts) over portions of western NE during the afternoon. Here, diurnal heating along the western edge of the richer boundary-layer moisture plume should yield 20-30 percent RH. Despite these marginal RH reductions, the strong/gusty winds will still favor a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions, before a cold front and related precipitation overspread the area during the evening. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...17z Update... No changes. Spotty elevated conditions are possible owing to strong southerly winds ahead of a cold front. Strong gusts may linger after the frontal passage and with shower/thunderstorms expected later today. Fire concerns will remain highest within patchy dry fuels across the southern most portions of the NE panhandle where less rainfall and lower humidity recoveries have occurred. See the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 09/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough, accompanied by strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow, will overspread the northern/central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A related lee cyclone will deepen near western SD, promoting a tight pressure gradient and 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds (with higher gusts) over portions of western NE during the afternoon. Here, diurnal heating along the western edge of the richer boundary-layer moisture plume should yield 20-30 percent RH. Despite these marginal RH reductions, the strong/gusty winds will still favor a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions, before a cold front and related precipitation overspread the area during the evening. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...17z Update... No changes. Spotty elevated conditions are possible owing to strong southerly winds ahead of a cold front. Strong gusts may linger after the frontal passage and with shower/thunderstorms expected later today. Fire concerns will remain highest within patchy dry fuels across the southern most portions of the NE panhandle where less rainfall and lower humidity recoveries have occurred. See the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 09/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough, accompanied by strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow, will overspread the northern/central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A related lee cyclone will deepen near western SD, promoting a tight pressure gradient and 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds (with higher gusts) over portions of western NE during the afternoon. Here, diurnal heating along the western edge of the richer boundary-layer moisture plume should yield 20-30 percent RH. Despite these marginal RH reductions, the strong/gusty winds will still favor a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions, before a cold front and related precipitation overspread the area during the evening. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

A fire restriction took effect for Dolly Sods Wilderness in the Monongahela National Forest in the Cheat-Potomac Ranger District. It is prohibited to build, maintain, attend or use a wood or charcoal fire or campfire on all National Forest lands, roads and within the bounds of the Dolly Sods Wilderness. Firefighting is more complicated in Dolly Sods because it is a known unexploded ordinance area, further hampering firefighting tactics and endangering the welfare of the public and emergency responders. Bluefield Daily Telegraph (W.V.), Sept 17, 2024

The Muskingum Watershed Conservancy District was encouraging boat owners to plan to remove boats from Atwood Lake due to falling water levels due to drought. The lake was about a foot and a half below normal. Water sales at Atwood were reduced 75 percent just over two weeks ago, and then 100 percent as of last week. “People that have been here a lot longer than I have said this is very close or akin to the 1988 drought,” stated the MWCD director. WJER (Dover, Ohio), Sept 17, 2024

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0706 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern High Plains. ...High Plains/Central and Southern Rockies... Water-vapor imagery early this morning shows a potent mid-level low and associated trough centered over northeast NV. This feature will become negatively tilted and move into the High Plains late today while the low moves east-northeast reaching southeast MT Wednesday morning. Strong attendant forcing for ascent will overspread the High Plains this afternoon into the early evening with an accompanying 50-60 kt 500-mb speed max moving into CO and eventually western NE/SD. In the low levels, a lee trough will sharpen with southerly flow maintaining a fetch of seasonably adequate moisture (50s deg F surface dewpoints) into the High Plains. Ahead of the approaching trough, partial clearing will result in strong surface heating this afternoon over the central High Plains. MLCAPE is expected to peak near 1500 J/kg from eastern Colorado northward into western Nebraska. Initial storm activity late this morning through the early afternoon will develop over the high terrain of CO/northern NM and move/develop east into richer moisture by mid-late afternoon. The increasing large-scale ascent coupled with heating will eventually result in numerous storms mainly in the form of linear clusters evolving into linear bands of convection by early evening. The greatest combination of instability, lift and deep-layer shear is forecast across western Nebraska and northeast Colorado, suggesting an enhanced threat for severe wind gusts. Based on some of the latest CAM data, have expanded the Slight-Risk equivalent wind probabilities farther south into northeast NM/northwest TX Panhandle. Some consideration was given to expand the ENH Risk into southwestern SD, but the later timing of storms lends enough uncertainty to preclude this change this outlook update. ...Northern High Plains... Ahead of the approaching mid-level low, divergent south to south-southeasterly flow will be in place across the northern Rockies and northern Plains. During the afternoon, thunderstorms will develop in the north-central Rockies and move north to northeastward across the northern High Plains. An axis of moderate instability is forecast by afternoon from the Dakotas northwestward into northeast Montana. As large-scale ascent and moderate deep-layer shear overspread the northern High Plains late this afternoon and evening, organized storms will be possible. Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be the primary threats. ...Eastern Florida... A mid-level trough will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico today, as an associated surface trough moves across the Florida Peninsula. Surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F, along with surface heating will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm today, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the surface trough. RAP forecast soundings at 21Z in eastern Florida have MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 20 knots. This, combined with steep low-level lapse rates could be enough for a marginal threat for locally severe wind gusts. ..Smith/Mosier.. 09/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0706 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern High Plains. ...High Plains/Central and Southern Rockies... Water-vapor imagery early this morning shows a potent mid-level low and associated trough centered over northeast NV. This feature will become negatively tilted and move into the High Plains late today while the low moves east-northeast reaching southeast MT Wednesday morning. Strong attendant forcing for ascent will overspread the High Plains this afternoon into the early evening with an accompanying 50-60 kt 500-mb speed max moving into CO and eventually western NE/SD. In the low levels, a lee trough will sharpen with southerly flow maintaining a fetch of seasonably adequate moisture (50s deg F surface dewpoints) into the High Plains. Ahead of the approaching trough, partial clearing will result in strong surface heating this afternoon over the central High Plains. MLCAPE is expected to peak near 1500 J/kg from eastern Colorado northward into western Nebraska. Initial storm activity late this morning through the early afternoon will develop over the high terrain of CO/northern NM and move/develop east into richer moisture by mid-late afternoon. The increasing large-scale ascent coupled with heating will eventually result in numerous storms mainly in the form of linear clusters evolving into linear bands of convection by early evening. The greatest combination of instability, lift and deep-layer shear is forecast across western Nebraska and northeast Colorado, suggesting an enhanced threat for severe wind gusts. Based on some of the latest CAM data, have expanded the Slight-Risk equivalent wind probabilities farther south into northeast NM/northwest TX Panhandle. Some consideration was given to expand the ENH Risk into southwestern SD, but the later timing of storms lends enough uncertainty to preclude this change this outlook update. ...Northern High Plains... Ahead of the approaching mid-level low, divergent south to south-southeasterly flow will be in place across the northern Rockies and northern Plains. During the afternoon, thunderstorms will develop in the north-central Rockies and move north to northeastward across the northern High Plains. An axis of moderate instability is forecast by afternoon from the Dakotas northwestward into northeast Montana. As large-scale ascent and moderate deep-layer shear overspread the northern High Plains late this afternoon and evening, organized storms will be possible. Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be the primary threats. ...Eastern Florida... A mid-level trough will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico today, as an associated surface trough moves across the Florida Peninsula. Surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F, along with surface heating will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm today, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the surface trough. RAP forecast soundings at 21Z in eastern Florida have MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 20 knots. This, combined with steep low-level lapse rates could be enough for a marginal threat for locally severe wind gusts. ..Smith/Mosier.. 09/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0706 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern High Plains. ...High Plains/Central and Southern Rockies... Water-vapor imagery early this morning shows a potent mid-level low and associated trough centered over northeast NV. This feature will become negatively tilted and move into the High Plains late today while the low moves east-northeast reaching southeast MT Wednesday morning. Strong attendant forcing for ascent will overspread the High Plains this afternoon into the early evening with an accompanying 50-60 kt 500-mb speed max moving into CO and eventually western NE/SD. In the low levels, a lee trough will sharpen with southerly flow maintaining a fetch of seasonably adequate moisture (50s deg F surface dewpoints) into the High Plains. Ahead of the approaching trough, partial clearing will result in strong surface heating this afternoon over the central High Plains. MLCAPE is expected to peak near 1500 J/kg from eastern Colorado northward into western Nebraska. Initial storm activity late this morning through the early afternoon will develop over the high terrain of CO/northern NM and move/develop east into richer moisture by mid-late afternoon. The increasing large-scale ascent coupled with heating will eventually result in numerous storms mainly in the form of linear clusters evolving into linear bands of convection by early evening. The greatest combination of instability, lift and deep-layer shear is forecast across western Nebraska and northeast Colorado, suggesting an enhanced threat for severe wind gusts. Based on some of the latest CAM data, have expanded the Slight-Risk equivalent wind probabilities farther south into northeast NM/northwest TX Panhandle. Some consideration was given to expand the ENH Risk into southwestern SD, but the later timing of storms lends enough uncertainty to preclude this change this outlook update. ...Northern High Plains... Ahead of the approaching mid-level low, divergent south to south-southeasterly flow will be in place across the northern Rockies and northern Plains. During the afternoon, thunderstorms will develop in the north-central Rockies and move north to northeastward across the northern High Plains. An axis of moderate instability is forecast by afternoon from the Dakotas northwestward into northeast Montana. As large-scale ascent and moderate deep-layer shear overspread the northern High Plains late this afternoon and evening, organized storms will be possible. Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be the primary threats. ...Eastern Florida... A mid-level trough will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico today, as an associated surface trough moves across the Florida Peninsula. Surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F, along with surface heating will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm today, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the surface trough. RAP forecast soundings at 21Z in eastern Florida have MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 20 knots. This, combined with steep low-level lapse rates could be enough for a marginal threat for locally severe wind gusts. ..Smith/Mosier.. 09/17/2024 Read more