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MD 2096 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 680... FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2096 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0713 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Areas affected...eastern New Mexico into western Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 680... Valid 220013Z - 220315Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 680 continues. SUMMARY...The threat of large hail and scattered severe gusts continues from far eastern NM Into parts of the TX Panhandle and South Plains this evening. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis show a cold front extending from west-central OK into east-central NM, with a dryline punching northeastward across central NM. Gusty southeast winds persist across the warm sector over much of the South Plains and into southeast NM, with scattered strong to severe cells both north and south of the cold front. Around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE exists within the instability axis, as indicated on the 00Z MAF. Winds in the lowest few km are mostly unidirectional, before veering to southwesterly around 700 mb. Hodographs are therefore primarily straight line, with elongation in the mid to upper levels. While low-level shear is stronger along the cold front, much of this will remain ineffective due to the cooler air mass. However, the South Plains portion of the front is a bit more favorably oriented for storms to potentially interact for a longer duration before becoming elevated, and a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. Otherwise, hail appears to be the primary risk this evening. ..Jewell.. 09/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 32190387 32940368 33690364 34470409 34690452 35190547 35670523 35750420 35430237 35240148 34930115 34080093 33340144 32260234 31850310 31910362 32190387 Read more

WW 680 SEVERE TSTM NM TX 212030Z - 220400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 680 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 230 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern New Mexico West Texas South Plains and Panhandle * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 230 PM until 1000 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Severe storms are expected to develop initially across a broad north/south part of eastern New Mexico this afternoon, as well as near the New Mexico/Texas border vicinity. This includes the potential for some supercell storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 105 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles west northwest of Roswell NM to 55 miles southeast of Amarillo TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0680 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 680 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW INK TO 20 WSW HOB TO 35 NNE HOB TO 5 ESE CAO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2096 ..JEWELL..09/22/24 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...AMA...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 680 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC025-220240- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LEA TXC011-017-045-065-069-079-117-129-153-165-179-189-205-219-233- 279-303-341-359-369-375-381-393-437-445-501-220240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG BAILEY BRISCOE CARSON CASTRO COCHRAN DEAF SMITH DONLEY FLOYD GAINES GRAY HALE HARTLEY HOCKLEY HUTCHINSON LAMB LUBBOCK MOORE OLDHAM PARMER POTTER RANDALL ROBERTS SWISHER TERRY YOAKUM Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of all hazards remain possible this evening across portions of the southern High Plains. ...01z Update... Strong upper low has progressed into the Four Corners region early this evening as the primary mid-level speed max translates across southern NM. Large-scale ascent is now spreading across the southern High Plains, and scattered-numerous thunderstorms have evolved across eastern NM into the TX Panhandle. In response to the trough, LLJ should increase a bit over the next few hours, and continued clustering is expected, especially across the TX South Plains into the TX Panhandle. Additionally, several supercells persist within southeast upslope flow regime across eastern NM, south of the synoptic front. 00z sounding from MAF exhibits steep lapse rates with ample shear for supercells, though weak inhibition is noted around 2km. Large hail and damaging wind threat continues with this activity, along with some risk for tornadoes with more discrete supercells. ...Elsewhere... Southern influence of northern-stream short-wave trough is aiding multiple thunderstorm clusters across the upper Midwest. Low-level warm advection is also contributing to this activity, but thermodynamic profiles are not particularly impressive with mostly modest instability noted. Some risk for wind/hail will continue, especially for the next few hours. Boundary-layer cooling should contribute to weakening buoyancy across the Middle Atlantic region. Some risk for locally strong winds persist for the next 1-2hr but overall the severe risk is gradually waning. ..Darrow.. 09/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of all hazards remain possible this evening across portions of the southern High Plains. ...01z Update... Strong upper low has progressed into the Four Corners region early this evening as the primary mid-level speed max translates across southern NM. Large-scale ascent is now spreading across the southern High Plains, and scattered-numerous thunderstorms have evolved across eastern NM into the TX Panhandle. In response to the trough, LLJ should increase a bit over the next few hours, and continued clustering is expected, especially across the TX South Plains into the TX Panhandle. Additionally, several supercells persist within southeast upslope flow regime across eastern NM, south of the synoptic front. 00z sounding from MAF exhibits steep lapse rates with ample shear for supercells, though weak inhibition is noted around 2km. Large hail and damaging wind threat continues with this activity, along with some risk for tornadoes with more discrete supercells. ...Elsewhere... Southern influence of northern-stream short-wave trough is aiding multiple thunderstorm clusters across the upper Midwest. Low-level warm advection is also contributing to this activity, but thermodynamic profiles are not particularly impressive with mostly modest instability noted. Some risk for wind/hail will continue, especially for the next few hours. Boundary-layer cooling should contribute to weakening buoyancy across the Middle Atlantic region. Some risk for locally strong winds persist for the next 1-2hr but overall the severe risk is gradually waning. ..Darrow.. 09/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of all hazards remain possible this evening across portions of the southern High Plains. ...01z Update... Strong upper low has progressed into the Four Corners region early this evening as the primary mid-level speed max translates across southern NM. Large-scale ascent is now spreading across the southern High Plains, and scattered-numerous thunderstorms have evolved across eastern NM into the TX Panhandle. In response to the trough, LLJ should increase a bit over the next few hours, and continued clustering is expected, especially across the TX South Plains into the TX Panhandle. Additionally, several supercells persist within southeast upslope flow regime across eastern NM, south of the synoptic front. 00z sounding from MAF exhibits steep lapse rates with ample shear for supercells, though weak inhibition is noted around 2km. Large hail and damaging wind threat continues with this activity, along with some risk for tornadoes with more discrete supercells. ...Elsewhere... Southern influence of northern-stream short-wave trough is aiding multiple thunderstorm clusters across the upper Midwest. Low-level warm advection is also contributing to this activity, but thermodynamic profiles are not particularly impressive with mostly modest instability noted. Some risk for wind/hail will continue, especially for the next few hours. Boundary-layer cooling should contribute to weakening buoyancy across the Middle Atlantic region. Some risk for locally strong winds persist for the next 1-2hr but overall the severe risk is gradually waning. ..Darrow.. 09/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of all hazards remain possible this evening across portions of the southern High Plains. ...01z Update... Strong upper low has progressed into the Four Corners region early this evening as the primary mid-level speed max translates across southern NM. Large-scale ascent is now spreading across the southern High Plains, and scattered-numerous thunderstorms have evolved across eastern NM into the TX Panhandle. In response to the trough, LLJ should increase a bit over the next few hours, and continued clustering is expected, especially across the TX South Plains into the TX Panhandle. Additionally, several supercells persist within southeast upslope flow regime across eastern NM, south of the synoptic front. 00z sounding from MAF exhibits steep lapse rates with ample shear for supercells, though weak inhibition is noted around 2km. Large hail and damaging wind threat continues with this activity, along with some risk for tornadoes with more discrete supercells. ...Elsewhere... Southern influence of northern-stream short-wave trough is aiding multiple thunderstorm clusters across the upper Midwest. Low-level warm advection is also contributing to this activity, but thermodynamic profiles are not particularly impressive with mostly modest instability noted. Some risk for wind/hail will continue, especially for the next few hours. Boundary-layer cooling should contribute to weakening buoyancy across the Middle Atlantic region. Some risk for locally strong winds persist for the next 1-2hr but overall the severe risk is gradually waning. ..Darrow.. 09/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of all hazards remain possible this evening across portions of the southern High Plains. ...01z Update... Strong upper low has progressed into the Four Corners region early this evening as the primary mid-level speed max translates across southern NM. Large-scale ascent is now spreading across the southern High Plains, and scattered-numerous thunderstorms have evolved across eastern NM into the TX Panhandle. In response to the trough, LLJ should increase a bit over the next few hours, and continued clustering is expected, especially across the TX South Plains into the TX Panhandle. Additionally, several supercells persist within southeast upslope flow regime across eastern NM, south of the synoptic front. 00z sounding from MAF exhibits steep lapse rates with ample shear for supercells, though weak inhibition is noted around 2km. Large hail and damaging wind threat continues with this activity, along with some risk for tornadoes with more discrete supercells. ...Elsewhere... Southern influence of northern-stream short-wave trough is aiding multiple thunderstorm clusters across the upper Midwest. Low-level warm advection is also contributing to this activity, but thermodynamic profiles are not particularly impressive with mostly modest instability noted. Some risk for wind/hail will continue, especially for the next few hours. Boundary-layer cooling should contribute to weakening buoyancy across the Middle Atlantic region. Some risk for locally strong winds persist for the next 1-2hr but overall the severe risk is gradually waning. ..Darrow.. 09/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of all hazards remain possible this evening across portions of the southern High Plains. ...01z Update... Strong upper low has progressed into the Four Corners region early this evening as the primary mid-level speed max translates across southern NM. Large-scale ascent is now spreading across the southern High Plains, and scattered-numerous thunderstorms have evolved across eastern NM into the TX Panhandle. In response to the trough, LLJ should increase a bit over the next few hours, and continued clustering is expected, especially across the TX South Plains into the TX Panhandle. Additionally, several supercells persist within southeast upslope flow regime across eastern NM, south of the synoptic front. 00z sounding from MAF exhibits steep lapse rates with ample shear for supercells, though weak inhibition is noted around 2km. Large hail and damaging wind threat continues with this activity, along with some risk for tornadoes with more discrete supercells. ...Elsewhere... Southern influence of northern-stream short-wave trough is aiding multiple thunderstorm clusters across the upper Midwest. Low-level warm advection is also contributing to this activity, but thermodynamic profiles are not particularly impressive with mostly modest instability noted. Some risk for wind/hail will continue, especially for the next few hours. Boundary-layer cooling should contribute to weakening buoyancy across the Middle Atlantic region. Some risk for locally strong winds persist for the next 1-2hr but overall the severe risk is gradually waning. ..Darrow.. 09/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of all hazards remain possible this evening across portions of the southern High Plains. ...01z Update... Strong upper low has progressed into the Four Corners region early this evening as the primary mid-level speed max translates across southern NM. Large-scale ascent is now spreading across the southern High Plains, and scattered-numerous thunderstorms have evolved across eastern NM into the TX Panhandle. In response to the trough, LLJ should increase a bit over the next few hours, and continued clustering is expected, especially across the TX South Plains into the TX Panhandle. Additionally, several supercells persist within southeast upslope flow regime across eastern NM, south of the synoptic front. 00z sounding from MAF exhibits steep lapse rates with ample shear for supercells, though weak inhibition is noted around 2km. Large hail and damaging wind threat continues with this activity, along with some risk for tornadoes with more discrete supercells. ...Elsewhere... Southern influence of northern-stream short-wave trough is aiding multiple thunderstorm clusters across the upper Midwest. Low-level warm advection is also contributing to this activity, but thermodynamic profiles are not particularly impressive with mostly modest instability noted. Some risk for wind/hail will continue, especially for the next few hours. Boundary-layer cooling should contribute to weakening buoyancy across the Middle Atlantic region. Some risk for locally strong winds persist for the next 1-2hr but overall the severe risk is gradually waning. ..Darrow.. 09/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of all hazards remain possible this evening across portions of the southern High Plains. ...01z Update... Strong upper low has progressed into the Four Corners region early this evening as the primary mid-level speed max translates across southern NM. Large-scale ascent is now spreading across the southern High Plains, and scattered-numerous thunderstorms have evolved across eastern NM into the TX Panhandle. In response to the trough, LLJ should increase a bit over the next few hours, and continued clustering is expected, especially across the TX South Plains into the TX Panhandle. Additionally, several supercells persist within southeast upslope flow regime across eastern NM, south of the synoptic front. 00z sounding from MAF exhibits steep lapse rates with ample shear for supercells, though weak inhibition is noted around 2km. Large hail and damaging wind threat continues with this activity, along with some risk for tornadoes with more discrete supercells. ...Elsewhere... Southern influence of northern-stream short-wave trough is aiding multiple thunderstorm clusters across the upper Midwest. Low-level warm advection is also contributing to this activity, but thermodynamic profiles are not particularly impressive with mostly modest instability noted. Some risk for wind/hail will continue, especially for the next few hours. Boundary-layer cooling should contribute to weakening buoyancy across the Middle Atlantic region. Some risk for locally strong winds persist for the next 1-2hr but overall the severe risk is gradually waning. ..Darrow.. 09/22/2024 Read more

WW 0680 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 680 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE CNM TO 35 W HOB TO 50 E ROW TO 50 NE ROW TO 55 WSW CVS TO 60 SSE LVS TO 20 SSE SAF. ..JEWELL..09/21/24 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...AMA...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 680 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC009-011-015-019-021-025-033-037-041-047-220140- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CURRY DE BACA EDDY GUADALUPE HARDING LEA MORA QUAY ROOSEVELT SAN MIGUEL TXC011-017-045-065-069-079-117-129-153-165-179-189-205-219-233- 279-303-341-359-369-375-381-393-437-445-501-220140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG BAILEY BRISCOE CARSON CASTRO COCHRAN DEAF SMITH DONLEY FLOYD GAINES GRAY HALE HARTLEY HOCKLEY HUTCHINSON LAMB LUBBOCK MOORE OLDHAM PARMER POTTER Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 212331
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Sep 21 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure is producing a large area of showers and
thunderstorms located a few hundred miles south of the coast of
southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some
slow development of this system while it meanders offshore the next
few days, and a tropical depression could form during the early or
middle part of next week when the system begins to move slowly
eastward or northeastward toward the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Central Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form well to the southwest of the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some slow development
of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the
early or middle part of next week while the system moves slowly
eastward or northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Sep 21 23:00:09 UTC 2024.

WW 0680 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 680 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 WNW GDP TO 20 WSW CNM TO 25 NW CNM TO 20 S ROW TO 10 NW ROW TO 50 NNW ROW TO 35 ENE 4CR TO 55 NNE 4CR TO 30 SSE SAF. ..JEWELL..09/21/24 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...AMA...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 680 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC005-009-011-015-019-021-025-033-037-041-047-220040- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHAVES CURRY DE BACA EDDY GUADALUPE HARDING LEA MORA QUAY ROOSEVELT SAN MIGUEL TXC011-017-045-065-069-079-117-129-153-165-179-189-205-219-233- 279-303-341-359-369-375-381-393-437-445-501-220040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG BAILEY BRISCOE CARSON CASTRO COCHRAN DEAF SMITH DONLEY FLOYD GAINES GRAY HALE HARTLEY HOCKLEY HUTCHINSON LAMB LUBBOCK MOORE OLDHAM PARMER POTTER Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z A complicated/chaotic upper-air pattern will evolve across the United States this week. Early in the week, the upper-low across the Southwest this weekend will continue to open up and lift in/through the Plains. In its wake, an expansive ridge will take hold across the West, driving a short-wave trough southward through the Plains, by midweek. By late week, a series of short-wave troughs will move across the Pacific Northwest coincident with a closed low developing across the southern Plains. The result will be cooler/wetter pattern across southern Plains and eastern United States. Across the west, although a ridge will develop by early week, generally weak flow and unreceptive fuels will limit fire-weather concerns. Thus, large-scale critical fire-weather concerns appear to be minimal this week. ..Marsh.. 09/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z A complicated/chaotic upper-air pattern will evolve across the United States this week. Early in the week, the upper-low across the Southwest this weekend will continue to open up and lift in/through the Plains. In its wake, an expansive ridge will take hold across the West, driving a short-wave trough southward through the Plains, by midweek. By late week, a series of short-wave troughs will move across the Pacific Northwest coincident with a closed low developing across the southern Plains. The result will be cooler/wetter pattern across southern Plains and eastern United States. Across the west, although a ridge will develop by early week, generally weak flow and unreceptive fuels will limit fire-weather concerns. Thus, large-scale critical fire-weather concerns appear to be minimal this week. ..Marsh.. 09/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z A complicated/chaotic upper-air pattern will evolve across the United States this week. Early in the week, the upper-low across the Southwest this weekend will continue to open up and lift in/through the Plains. In its wake, an expansive ridge will take hold across the West, driving a short-wave trough southward through the Plains, by midweek. By late week, a series of short-wave troughs will move across the Pacific Northwest coincident with a closed low developing across the southern Plains. The result will be cooler/wetter pattern across southern Plains and eastern United States. Across the west, although a ridge will develop by early week, generally weak flow and unreceptive fuels will limit fire-weather concerns. Thus, large-scale critical fire-weather concerns appear to be minimal this week. ..Marsh.. 09/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z A complicated/chaotic upper-air pattern will evolve across the United States this week. Early in the week, the upper-low across the Southwest this weekend will continue to open up and lift in/through the Plains. In its wake, an expansive ridge will take hold across the West, driving a short-wave trough southward through the Plains, by midweek. By late week, a series of short-wave troughs will move across the Pacific Northwest coincident with a closed low developing across the southern Plains. The result will be cooler/wetter pattern across southern Plains and eastern United States. Across the west, although a ridge will develop by early week, generally weak flow and unreceptive fuels will limit fire-weather concerns. Thus, large-scale critical fire-weather concerns appear to be minimal this week. ..Marsh.. 09/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z A complicated/chaotic upper-air pattern will evolve across the United States this week. Early in the week, the upper-low across the Southwest this weekend will continue to open up and lift in/through the Plains. In its wake, an expansive ridge will take hold across the West, driving a short-wave trough southward through the Plains, by midweek. By late week, a series of short-wave troughs will move across the Pacific Northwest coincident with a closed low developing across the southern Plains. The result will be cooler/wetter pattern across southern Plains and eastern United States. Across the west, although a ridge will develop by early week, generally weak flow and unreceptive fuels will limit fire-weather concerns. Thus, large-scale critical fire-weather concerns appear to be minimal this week. ..Marsh.. 09/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more