Aggregator

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TOWARD THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the central/southern Appalachians. ...OH/TN Valleys toward the Central/Southern Appalachians... A complicated/messy scenario is unfolding for severe potential on Tuesday. Most 00z CAMs and deterministic guidance suggests potentially widespread convection may be ongoing Tuesday morning across the Ohio Valley vicinity. This will limit heating and destabilization across a broad warm sector ahead of an eastward-advancing surface cold front. Nevertheless, a deepening mid/upper trough will slowly shift east from eastern portions of the central/southern Plains toward the MS River. Strengthening deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the region, providing support for organized convection, with a mix clusters and line segments possible. Given uncertainty due to morning convection and subsequent airmass destabilization, as well has some disagreement in timing of the mid/upper trough, have introduced a rather broad Marginal risk (level 1 of 5). Some refinement of this area, and/or potential upgrades may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence sufficiently increases in a more favorable/focused corridor of severe potential. Where stronger heating/destabilization can occur, damaging gusts will be possible. ..Leitman.. 09/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TOWARD THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the central/southern Appalachians. ...OH/TN Valleys toward the Central/Southern Appalachians... A complicated/messy scenario is unfolding for severe potential on Tuesday. Most 00z CAMs and deterministic guidance suggests potentially widespread convection may be ongoing Tuesday morning across the Ohio Valley vicinity. This will limit heating and destabilization across a broad warm sector ahead of an eastward-advancing surface cold front. Nevertheless, a deepening mid/upper trough will slowly shift east from eastern portions of the central/southern Plains toward the MS River. Strengthening deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the region, providing support for organized convection, with a mix clusters and line segments possible. Given uncertainty due to morning convection and subsequent airmass destabilization, as well has some disagreement in timing of the mid/upper trough, have introduced a rather broad Marginal risk (level 1 of 5). Some refinement of this area, and/or potential upgrades may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence sufficiently increases in a more favorable/focused corridor of severe potential. Where stronger heating/destabilization can occur, damaging gusts will be possible. ..Leitman.. 09/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS TO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Ozarks into parts of the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys. ...Ozarks to TN/OH Valley Region... Northern-stream short-wave trough is forecast to dig into the northern Plains later this afternoon, which will encourage the positive-tilt trough over the central Plains to eject east, and deamplify over the MS Valley late in the period. This evolution is expected to aid weak surface wave/low development along the synoptic front, mostly likely over northern AR early in the period. Latest model guidance suggests this weak feature will track northeast into southern IN by 24/12z. While the surface front is not particularly sharp, this boundary will serve as the focus for scattered convection through the period. Pre frontal boundary-layer heating will prove instrumental in destabilization as mid-level lapse rates should remain weak through the period. Latest NAM suggests 0-3km lapse rates will steepen across eastern AR into western KY by early afternoon, which will result in MLCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg, coincident with modest 0-6km bulk shear. Forecast soundings favor multi cell updrafts with some organizational potential, as effective shear will be on the order of 30kt along this pre frontal corridor. At this time it appears most updrafts will struggle to generate more than marginally strong gusts, or perhaps some hail approaching 1 inch. Most robust updrafts should develop by late morning and continue into the early-evening hours before nocturnal cooling lessens buoyancy. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 09/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS TO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Ozarks into parts of the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys. ...Ozarks to TN/OH Valley Region... Northern-stream short-wave trough is forecast to dig into the northern Plains later this afternoon, which will encourage the positive-tilt trough over the central Plains to eject east, and deamplify over the MS Valley late in the period. This evolution is expected to aid weak surface wave/low development along the synoptic front, mostly likely over northern AR early in the period. Latest model guidance suggests this weak feature will track northeast into southern IN by 24/12z. While the surface front is not particularly sharp, this boundary will serve as the focus for scattered convection through the period. Pre frontal boundary-layer heating will prove instrumental in destabilization as mid-level lapse rates should remain weak through the period. Latest NAM suggests 0-3km lapse rates will steepen across eastern AR into western KY by early afternoon, which will result in MLCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg, coincident with modest 0-6km bulk shear. Forecast soundings favor multi cell updrafts with some organizational potential, as effective shear will be on the order of 30kt along this pre frontal corridor. At this time it appears most updrafts will struggle to generate more than marginally strong gusts, or perhaps some hail approaching 1 inch. Most robust updrafts should develop by late morning and continue into the early-evening hours before nocturnal cooling lessens buoyancy. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 09/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS TO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Ozarks into parts of the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys. ...Ozarks to TN/OH Valley Region... Northern-stream short-wave trough is forecast to dig into the northern Plains later this afternoon, which will encourage the positive-tilt trough over the central Plains to eject east, and deamplify over the MS Valley late in the period. This evolution is expected to aid weak surface wave/low development along the synoptic front, mostly likely over northern AR early in the period. Latest model guidance suggests this weak feature will track northeast into southern IN by 24/12z. While the surface front is not particularly sharp, this boundary will serve as the focus for scattered convection through the period. Pre frontal boundary-layer heating will prove instrumental in destabilization as mid-level lapse rates should remain weak through the period. Latest NAM suggests 0-3km lapse rates will steepen across eastern AR into western KY by early afternoon, which will result in MLCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg, coincident with modest 0-6km bulk shear. Forecast soundings favor multi cell updrafts with some organizational potential, as effective shear will be on the order of 30kt along this pre frontal corridor. At this time it appears most updrafts will struggle to generate more than marginally strong gusts, or perhaps some hail approaching 1 inch. Most robust updrafts should develop by late morning and continue into the early-evening hours before nocturnal cooling lessens buoyancy. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 09/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS TO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Ozarks into parts of the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys. ...Ozarks to TN/OH Valley Region... Northern-stream short-wave trough is forecast to dig into the northern Plains later this afternoon, which will encourage the positive-tilt trough over the central Plains to eject east, and deamplify over the MS Valley late in the period. This evolution is expected to aid weak surface wave/low development along the synoptic front, mostly likely over northern AR early in the period. Latest model guidance suggests this weak feature will track northeast into southern IN by 24/12z. While the surface front is not particularly sharp, this boundary will serve as the focus for scattered convection through the period. Pre frontal boundary-layer heating will prove instrumental in destabilization as mid-level lapse rates should remain weak through the period. Latest NAM suggests 0-3km lapse rates will steepen across eastern AR into western KY by early afternoon, which will result in MLCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg, coincident with modest 0-6km bulk shear. Forecast soundings favor multi cell updrafts with some organizational potential, as effective shear will be on the order of 30kt along this pre frontal corridor. At this time it appears most updrafts will struggle to generate more than marginally strong gusts, or perhaps some hail approaching 1 inch. Most robust updrafts should develop by late morning and continue into the early-evening hours before nocturnal cooling lessens buoyancy. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 09/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS TO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Ozarks into parts of the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys. ...Ozarks to TN/OH Valley Region... Northern-stream short-wave trough is forecast to dig into the northern Plains later this afternoon, which will encourage the positive-tilt trough over the central Plains to eject east, and deamplify over the MS Valley late in the period. This evolution is expected to aid weak surface wave/low development along the synoptic front, mostly likely over northern AR early in the period. Latest model guidance suggests this weak feature will track northeast into southern IN by 24/12z. While the surface front is not particularly sharp, this boundary will serve as the focus for scattered convection through the period. Pre frontal boundary-layer heating will prove instrumental in destabilization as mid-level lapse rates should remain weak through the period. Latest NAM suggests 0-3km lapse rates will steepen across eastern AR into western KY by early afternoon, which will result in MLCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg, coincident with modest 0-6km bulk shear. Forecast soundings favor multi cell updrafts with some organizational potential, as effective shear will be on the order of 30kt along this pre frontal corridor. At this time it appears most updrafts will struggle to generate more than marginally strong gusts, or perhaps some hail approaching 1 inch. Most robust updrafts should develop by late morning and continue into the early-evening hours before nocturnal cooling lessens buoyancy. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 09/23/2024 Read more

A Tipp City golf course has not had to mow the greens everyday or cut the fairways three times per week as drought has slowed grass growth, which has saved money on labor. WKEF-TV NBC 22 Dayton (Ohio), Sept 22, 2024

Some local reservoirs were below seasonal averages, prompting officials in the city of Columbus to begin using supplemental water from a reserve source. Columbus was in the watch phase of its drought management plan. No voluntary or mandatory water restrictions were in effect, but could be enacted if needed. The Columbus Dispatch (Ohio), Sept 10, 2024

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2024 02:42:00 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2024 03:24:07 GMT

Issued at 900 PM CST Sun Sep 22 2024 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 230233 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 900 PM CST Sun Sep 22 2024 Satellite images show that the depression is gradually becoming better organized, with some convective banding features developing around the circulation and a small area of very cold cloud tops over the estimated center. Upper-level outflow is fairly well defined over the southern semicircle of the system. Subjective Dvorak classifications from both TAFB and SAB indicate a T-number of 2.0, so the advisory intensity is held at 30 kt for now. Center fixes indicate little movement since earlier today, so the initial motion estimate is nearly stationary. As noted earlier, the track forecast for this tropical cyclone is quite problematic, with a large spread in the guidance models. The regional hurricane models are generally east of the global guidance, with the ECMWF on the western side of the model tracks. The most recent run of the GFS takes the cyclone inland in a couple of days but later develops one or two new centers offshore. Since the dominant steering mechanism seems to be the Central American Gyre, the official track forecast shows a mainly east-northeastward motion during the forecast period, along the southern periphery of the Gyre. This track moves the center close to the southern coast of Mexico for several days before making landfall, and lies between the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus predictions. During most of the forecast period, the system should remain over very warm waters with low vertical wind shear and in a moist low- to mid-level air mass. Therefore strengthening is likely, and the official intensity forecast is similar to the statistical-dynamical LGEM guidance. One major source of uncertainty in the forecast is how much the system interacts with land during the next few days. Given the favorable environment, it is possible that the system could become a hurricane before landfall. Interests along the coast of southern Mexico should closely monitor the latest forecast updates for this system. A Hurricane Watch could be required for a portion of the coast now covered by a Tropical Storm Watch. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Slow-moving Tropical Depression Ten-E will bring very heavy rainfall to coastal portions of southwest Mexico through the upcoming week. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and possibly catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and southeast Guerrero, particularly in areas near the coast. 2. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later tonight or on Monday. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for a portion of the coastline of southern Mexico, where tropical storm conditions could begin on Tuesday. 3. The system could strengthen more than forecast depending on how long it remains over water. Interests along the coast of southern Mexico should monitor the latest forecast updates, as a Hurricane Watch could be required for a portion of the coastline later tonight or on Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 13.9N 98.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 14.3N 98.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 14.6N 97.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 15.0N 97.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 15.2N 96.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 25/1200Z 15.6N 95.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 16.3N 94.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 96H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 23 2024 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 230233 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 0300 UTC MON SEP 23 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 100W 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ACAPULCO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P MALDONADO 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) P ANGEL 34 X 6( 6) 18(24) 12(36) 6(42) X(42) X(42) P ANGEL 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) P ANGEL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HUATULCO 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) 15N 95W 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 16(23) 21(44) X(44) X(44) 15N 95W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) X(13) X(13) 15N 95W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SALINA CRUZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

...DEPRESSION CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... ...BRINGING FLOODING RAINS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... As of 9:00 PM CST Sun Sep 22 the center of Ten-E was located near 13.9, -98.6 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 900 PM CST Sun Sep 22 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 230232 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten-E Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 900 PM CST Sun Sep 22 2024 ...DEPRESSION CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... ...BRINGING FLOODING RAINS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.9N 98.6W ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM S OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Punta Maldonado to Salina Cruz For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten-E was located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 98.6 West. The depression is nearly stationary, but a slow northeastward motion is expected later tonight and Monday. A northeastward to east-northeastward motion is anticipated on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to move near the southern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the system will likely become a tropical storm tonight or early Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml RAINFALL: Through Thursday, the Tropical Depression is expected to produce 6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated totals around 15 inches across the coastal areas of Chiapas. In areas along and near the Oaxaca coast to southeast Guerrero, between 10 and 20 inches of rain with isolated totals near 30 inches can be expected through Thursday. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Ten, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep10.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within portions of the watch area beginning on Tuesday. SURF: Swells associated with the depression are forecast to begin to affect the coast of southern Mexico on Monday, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents much of the week. Please see local statements for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...DEPRESSION CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... ...BRINGING FLOODING RAINS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... As of 9:00 PM CST Sun Sep 22 the center of Ten-E was located near 13.9, -98.6 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 23 2024 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 230231 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 0300 UTC MON SEP 23 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 98.6W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 98.6W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 98.6W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.3N 98.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.6N 97.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.0N 97.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 15.2N 96.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 15.6N 95.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.3N 94.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 40SE 50SW 20NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 98.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 23/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong, to marginally severe, thunderstorms remain possible this evening across southwest Texas. ...01z Update... Upper low is gradually deamplifying as it becomes positive tilted over the central/southern High Plains region. This evolution has contributed to a surging cold front that now extends from the Ozarks-southeast OK-Edwards Plateau of southwest TX. The majority of convection remains along the cool side of the boundary, but a few storms are noted near/south of the wind shift. Surface temperatures remain in the upper 80s to near 90F across southwest TX, but mid-level lapse rates are modest at best, and this is likely hampering updraft strength within an otherwise strongly sheared environment. Additionally, very few severe wind gusts have been reported with this activity, and hail will likely struggle to achieve levels above 1 inch, except near the International border near Sanderson. Overall, severe threat appears fairly low this evening, but a few gusts and marginally severe hail remain possible. ..Darrow.. 09/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong, to marginally severe, thunderstorms remain possible this evening across southwest Texas. ...01z Update... Upper low is gradually deamplifying as it becomes positive tilted over the central/southern High Plains region. This evolution has contributed to a surging cold front that now extends from the Ozarks-southeast OK-Edwards Plateau of southwest TX. The majority of convection remains along the cool side of the boundary, but a few storms are noted near/south of the wind shift. Surface temperatures remain in the upper 80s to near 90F across southwest TX, but mid-level lapse rates are modest at best, and this is likely hampering updraft strength within an otherwise strongly sheared environment. Additionally, very few severe wind gusts have been reported with this activity, and hail will likely struggle to achieve levels above 1 inch, except near the International border near Sanderson. Overall, severe threat appears fairly low this evening, but a few gusts and marginally severe hail remain possible. ..Darrow.. 09/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong, to marginally severe, thunderstorms remain possible this evening across southwest Texas. ...01z Update... Upper low is gradually deamplifying as it becomes positive tilted over the central/southern High Plains region. This evolution has contributed to a surging cold front that now extends from the Ozarks-southeast OK-Edwards Plateau of southwest TX. The majority of convection remains along the cool side of the boundary, but a few storms are noted near/south of the wind shift. Surface temperatures remain in the upper 80s to near 90F across southwest TX, but mid-level lapse rates are modest at best, and this is likely hampering updraft strength within an otherwise strongly sheared environment. Additionally, very few severe wind gusts have been reported with this activity, and hail will likely struggle to achieve levels above 1 inch, except near the International border near Sanderson. Overall, severe threat appears fairly low this evening, but a few gusts and marginally severe hail remain possible. ..Darrow.. 09/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong, to marginally severe, thunderstorms remain possible this evening across southwest Texas. ...01z Update... Upper low is gradually deamplifying as it becomes positive tilted over the central/southern High Plains region. This evolution has contributed to a surging cold front that now extends from the Ozarks-southeast OK-Edwards Plateau of southwest TX. The majority of convection remains along the cool side of the boundary, but a few storms are noted near/south of the wind shift. Surface temperatures remain in the upper 80s to near 90F across southwest TX, but mid-level lapse rates are modest at best, and this is likely hampering updraft strength within an otherwise strongly sheared environment. Additionally, very few severe wind gusts have been reported with this activity, and hail will likely struggle to achieve levels above 1 inch, except near the International border near Sanderson. Overall, severe threat appears fairly low this evening, but a few gusts and marginally severe hail remain possible. ..Darrow.. 09/23/2024 Read more