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The Highland County Board of Commissioners declared a State of Emergency due to drought. If state funds become available, the county must declare a state of emergency to be eligible. Hillsboro has about 70 days’ worth of water remaining. The valve to Highland County Water was opened on Monday, Sept. 23. Crop yields were down substantially. One farmer’s soybeans produced about half of normal. Some farmers have gotten even less. Some domestic and livestock wells have run dry. The Times-Gazette (Hillsboro, Ohio), Sept 25, 2024

...JOHN EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 3:00 PM CST Wed Sep 25 the center of John was located near 16.8, -101.5 with movement N at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 300 PM CST Wed Sep 25 2024 775 WTPZ35 KNHC 252051 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm John Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 300 PM CST Wed Sep 25 2024 ...JOHN EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 101.5W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM W OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the coast of Mexico from Tecpan de Galeana to Lazaro Cardenas. The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the coast of Mexico from west of Lazaro Cardenas to Punta San Telmo. The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Mexico from west of Lazaro Cardenas to Punta San Telmo. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Tecpan de Galeana to Lazaro Cardenas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana * Lazaro Cardenas to Punta San Telmo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Maldonado to Acapulco * Lazaro Cardenas to Punta San Telmo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, this is case within 12 to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm John was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 101.5 West. John is moving toward the north near 3 mph (6 km/h). This motion should continue for the next day or so, followed by a gradual turn to the west-northwest on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of John is forecast to approach the southwestern coast of Mexico on early Thursday and be inland on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. John is forecast to strengthen as it approaches the coast of southern Mexico on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Through Friday, Tropical Storm John is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches with isolated totals around 30 inches across portions of the Mexican States of Guerrero, Oaxaca and Michoacan. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with John, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected along the coast within the hurricane warning area Thursday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength as early as tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the tropical storm warning area as early as tonight. SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue to affect the coast of southern Mexico through the week, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents. Please see local statements for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Bucci/R. Zelinsky

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 25 Sep 2024 20:53:54 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 25 Sep 2024 21:29:01 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 25 2024 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 252052 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 2100 UTC WED SEP 25 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MANZANILLO 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) L CARDENAS 34 33 15(48) 4(52) 2(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) L CARDENAS 50 1 6( 7) 4(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) L CARDENAS 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ZIHUATANEJO 34 56 15(71) 5(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) ZIHUATANEJO 50 11 17(28) 4(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) ZIHUATANEJO 64 1 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 100W 34 23 4(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) ACAPULCO 34 44 8(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) P MALDONADO 34 10 4(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 300 PM CST Wed Sep 25 2024 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 252052 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm John Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 300 PM CST Wed Sep 25 2024 John is becoming more organized this afternoon. Satellite imagery has shown deep bursts of convection forming near the center with curved banding around the majority of the circulation. Subjective Dvorak from TAFB and SAB were 3.5/55 kt and 2.5/35 kt, respectively, and the initial intensity for this advisory is set to 45 kt to represent a blend of these estimates. An Air Force Hurricane Reconnaissance aircraft is en route to investigate John and gather more information about the intensity, location, and structure. The tropical-storm-force winds in the southeast quadrant have been adjusted outward significantly based on an earlier partial ASCAT pass. Little has changed in the intensity forecast reasoning. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are conducive for further intensification, as long as the storm remains over water. SHIPS-RII, a rapid intensification indicator, shows about a 70 percent chance of rapid intensification in the next 24 hours. The official intensity forecast now shows John becoming a hurricane in 24 hours as it nears the coast of southwestern Mexico. This forecast is near the top of the guidance, closest to HCCA, but could still be conservative. John is moving with an estimated motion of 355/3 kt. The track forecast is rather uncertain. Model guidance has shifted westward, and is showing John either nearly stationary or slowly following the coastline northwestward. This motion seems to depend on the strength of the ridge to the north-northwest, which is centered over the southwestern United States. However, the current motion suggests John should move closer to the coast with the center likely to move inland on Thursday afternoon or evening, though this could occur sooner. Future adjustments to the track forecast may be necessary, and there remains a large spread in the aids. A Hurricane Warning has been issued by the government of Mexico for portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, and interests there should closely monitor future forecasts for updates. The Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch have also been extended westward. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical Storm John will bring additional very heavy rainfall to coastal portions of southwest Mexico through Friday. The additional rainfall totals will be falling across areas that have received very heavy rainfall amounts over the past few days. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and catastrophic life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Guerrero, Oaxaca and Michoacan. 2. John is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane before landfall, and a Hurricane Warning has been issued for a portion of the coastline of southwestern Mexico, where tropical storm conditions could begin later today. The Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch have also been extended westward. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 16.8N 101.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 17.1N 101.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 17.5N 101.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 18.0N 101.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 27/1800Z 18.2N 102.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci/R. Zelinsky

...JOHN EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 3:00 PM CST Wed Sep 25 the center of John was located near 16.8, -101.5 with movement N at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 25 2024 740 WTPZ25 KNHC 252051 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 2100 UTC WED SEP 25 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 101.5W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 130SE 100SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 240SE 210SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 101.5W AT 25/2100Z AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 101.5W FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.1N 101.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 140SE 110SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 17.5N 101.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 50SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 140SE 110SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 18.0N 101.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.2N 102.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 101.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 26/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI/R. ZELINSKY

Some boat owners in Ohio were warned to remove their boats from the water early as drought has lowered lake levels. The owner of a boat sales, service and storage facility has urged customers to take their vessels out of Tappan and Seneca lakes early. Some people with cottages and private docks at Leesville Lake have also been advised to remove their boats before the low water level leaves them stuck in the lake during winter. The Daily Jeff (Cambridge, Ohio), Sept 25, 2024

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms remain possible this afternoon from parts of the Southeast and central/southern Appalachians to the Texas/Louisiana Gulf Coast. Some tornado threat may still develop across the Florida Peninsula by this evening, in association with Hurricane Helene. ...20Z Update... The only changes made to the Day 1 Convective Outlook were to trim thunder and severe contours across the Gulf Coast into the OH Valley, where lightning and strong wind gust coverage should become increasingly sparse through the day. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 09/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024/ ..Southeast and southern Appalachians... The influence of the upstream mid/upper-level trough and moisture streaming north from the Gulf of Mexico and Helene will lead to widespread precipitation across parts of the Southeast and southern Appalachians. This will tend to limit available buoyancy in some areas, but strong to locally severe storms may occur. Favorable deep-layer winds/shear exist, especially across the southern Appalachians vicinity where a few semi-discrete supercells could occur aside from more prevalent quasi-linear convective bands. Locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado could accompany the strongest storms, before low/mid-level lapse rates and buoyancy become increasingly weak with time, and an outflow-reinforced effective front sags southward across the region. ...Texas Gulf Coast/Middle Gulf Coast... Somewhat stronger diurnal destabilization will be possible from parts of central/east Texas into Louisiana, and perhaps into Mississippi, with MLCAPE potentially increasing above 1500 J/kg. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible near a southward-moving cold front. Effective shear will generally range from 25-35 kt, and a few modestly organized storms are possible. Isolated damaging gusts could accompany the strongest storms within this regime. ...Florida Peninsula and Keys... Hurricane Helene's wind field is forecast to be rather large, especially on the east side of the circulation, associated with a strengthening Helene through the afternoon and tonight. Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest Helene details. This scenario will result in modestly strengthening low-level shear/SRH across the Florida Peninsula during the day, but more so into the evening and overnight after the peak diurnal instability cycle. Instability will likely remain rather weak overall, and details regarding the intensity of any outer rain bands remain uncertain. However, some tropical-cyclone tornado threat could evolve across parts of the Florida Peninsula and Keys, mainly into tonight. ...Eastern Washington/northern Idaho/northwest Montana... While buoyancy is expected to remain quite weak, relatively steep mid-level lapse rates will support thunderstorm potential late this afternoon through early evening from eastern Washington into northern Idaho and northwest Montana, in advance of the approaching shortwave trough. Strong deep-layer flow/shear could support a locally severe storm or two with gusty winds and possibly some hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms remain possible this afternoon from parts of the Southeast and central/southern Appalachians to the Texas/Louisiana Gulf Coast. Some tornado threat may still develop across the Florida Peninsula by this evening, in association with Hurricane Helene. ...20Z Update... The only changes made to the Day 1 Convective Outlook were to trim thunder and severe contours across the Gulf Coast into the OH Valley, where lightning and strong wind gust coverage should become increasingly sparse through the day. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 09/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024/ ..Southeast and southern Appalachians... The influence of the upstream mid/upper-level trough and moisture streaming north from the Gulf of Mexico and Helene will lead to widespread precipitation across parts of the Southeast and southern Appalachians. This will tend to limit available buoyancy in some areas, but strong to locally severe storms may occur. Favorable deep-layer winds/shear exist, especially across the southern Appalachians vicinity where a few semi-discrete supercells could occur aside from more prevalent quasi-linear convective bands. Locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado could accompany the strongest storms, before low/mid-level lapse rates and buoyancy become increasingly weak with time, and an outflow-reinforced effective front sags southward across the region. ...Texas Gulf Coast/Middle Gulf Coast... Somewhat stronger diurnal destabilization will be possible from parts of central/east Texas into Louisiana, and perhaps into Mississippi, with MLCAPE potentially increasing above 1500 J/kg. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible near a southward-moving cold front. Effective shear will generally range from 25-35 kt, and a few modestly organized storms are possible. Isolated damaging gusts could accompany the strongest storms within this regime. ...Florida Peninsula and Keys... Hurricane Helene's wind field is forecast to be rather large, especially on the east side of the circulation, associated with a strengthening Helene through the afternoon and tonight. Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest Helene details. This scenario will result in modestly strengthening low-level shear/SRH across the Florida Peninsula during the day, but more so into the evening and overnight after the peak diurnal instability cycle. Instability will likely remain rather weak overall, and details regarding the intensity of any outer rain bands remain uncertain. However, some tropical-cyclone tornado threat could evolve across parts of the Florida Peninsula and Keys, mainly into tonight. ...Eastern Washington/northern Idaho/northwest Montana... While buoyancy is expected to remain quite weak, relatively steep mid-level lapse rates will support thunderstorm potential late this afternoon through early evening from eastern Washington into northern Idaho and northwest Montana, in advance of the approaching shortwave trough. Strong deep-layer flow/shear could support a locally severe storm or two with gusty winds and possibly some hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms remain possible this afternoon from parts of the Southeast and central/southern Appalachians to the Texas/Louisiana Gulf Coast. Some tornado threat may still develop across the Florida Peninsula by this evening, in association with Hurricane Helene. ...20Z Update... The only changes made to the Day 1 Convective Outlook were to trim thunder and severe contours across the Gulf Coast into the OH Valley, where lightning and strong wind gust coverage should become increasingly sparse through the day. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 09/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024/ ..Southeast and southern Appalachians... The influence of the upstream mid/upper-level trough and moisture streaming north from the Gulf of Mexico and Helene will lead to widespread precipitation across parts of the Southeast and southern Appalachians. This will tend to limit available buoyancy in some areas, but strong to locally severe storms may occur. Favorable deep-layer winds/shear exist, especially across the southern Appalachians vicinity where a few semi-discrete supercells could occur aside from more prevalent quasi-linear convective bands. Locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado could accompany the strongest storms, before low/mid-level lapse rates and buoyancy become increasingly weak with time, and an outflow-reinforced effective front sags southward across the region. ...Texas Gulf Coast/Middle Gulf Coast... Somewhat stronger diurnal destabilization will be possible from parts of central/east Texas into Louisiana, and perhaps into Mississippi, with MLCAPE potentially increasing above 1500 J/kg. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible near a southward-moving cold front. Effective shear will generally range from 25-35 kt, and a few modestly organized storms are possible. Isolated damaging gusts could accompany the strongest storms within this regime. ...Florida Peninsula and Keys... Hurricane Helene's wind field is forecast to be rather large, especially on the east side of the circulation, associated with a strengthening Helene through the afternoon and tonight. Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest Helene details. This scenario will result in modestly strengthening low-level shear/SRH across the Florida Peninsula during the day, but more so into the evening and overnight after the peak diurnal instability cycle. Instability will likely remain rather weak overall, and details regarding the intensity of any outer rain bands remain uncertain. However, some tropical-cyclone tornado threat could evolve across parts of the Florida Peninsula and Keys, mainly into tonight. ...Eastern Washington/northern Idaho/northwest Montana... While buoyancy is expected to remain quite weak, relatively steep mid-level lapse rates will support thunderstorm potential late this afternoon through early evening from eastern Washington into northern Idaho and northwest Montana, in advance of the approaching shortwave trough. Strong deep-layer flow/shear could support a locally severe storm or two with gusty winds and possibly some hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms remain possible this afternoon from parts of the Southeast and central/southern Appalachians to the Texas/Louisiana Gulf Coast. Some tornado threat may still develop across the Florida Peninsula by this evening, in association with Hurricane Helene. ...20Z Update... The only changes made to the Day 1 Convective Outlook were to trim thunder and severe contours across the Gulf Coast into the OH Valley, where lightning and strong wind gust coverage should become increasingly sparse through the day. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 09/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024/ ..Southeast and southern Appalachians... The influence of the upstream mid/upper-level trough and moisture streaming north from the Gulf of Mexico and Helene will lead to widespread precipitation across parts of the Southeast and southern Appalachians. This will tend to limit available buoyancy in some areas, but strong to locally severe storms may occur. Favorable deep-layer winds/shear exist, especially across the southern Appalachians vicinity where a few semi-discrete supercells could occur aside from more prevalent quasi-linear convective bands. Locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado could accompany the strongest storms, before low/mid-level lapse rates and buoyancy become increasingly weak with time, and an outflow-reinforced effective front sags southward across the region. ...Texas Gulf Coast/Middle Gulf Coast... Somewhat stronger diurnal destabilization will be possible from parts of central/east Texas into Louisiana, and perhaps into Mississippi, with MLCAPE potentially increasing above 1500 J/kg. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible near a southward-moving cold front. Effective shear will generally range from 25-35 kt, and a few modestly organized storms are possible. Isolated damaging gusts could accompany the strongest storms within this regime. ...Florida Peninsula and Keys... Hurricane Helene's wind field is forecast to be rather large, especially on the east side of the circulation, associated with a strengthening Helene through the afternoon and tonight. Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest Helene details. This scenario will result in modestly strengthening low-level shear/SRH across the Florida Peninsula during the day, but more so into the evening and overnight after the peak diurnal instability cycle. Instability will likely remain rather weak overall, and details regarding the intensity of any outer rain bands remain uncertain. However, some tropical-cyclone tornado threat could evolve across parts of the Florida Peninsula and Keys, mainly into tonight. ...Eastern Washington/northern Idaho/northwest Montana... While buoyancy is expected to remain quite weak, relatively steep mid-level lapse rates will support thunderstorm potential late this afternoon through early evening from eastern Washington into northern Idaho and northwest Montana, in advance of the approaching shortwave trough. Strong deep-layer flow/shear could support a locally severe storm or two with gusty winds and possibly some hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms remain possible this afternoon from parts of the Southeast and central/southern Appalachians to the Texas/Louisiana Gulf Coast. Some tornado threat may still develop across the Florida Peninsula by this evening, in association with Hurricane Helene. ...20Z Update... The only changes made to the Day 1 Convective Outlook were to trim thunder and severe contours across the Gulf Coast into the OH Valley, where lightning and strong wind gust coverage should become increasingly sparse through the day. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 09/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024/ ..Southeast and southern Appalachians... The influence of the upstream mid/upper-level trough and moisture streaming north from the Gulf of Mexico and Helene will lead to widespread precipitation across parts of the Southeast and southern Appalachians. This will tend to limit available buoyancy in some areas, but strong to locally severe storms may occur. Favorable deep-layer winds/shear exist, especially across the southern Appalachians vicinity where a few semi-discrete supercells could occur aside from more prevalent quasi-linear convective bands. Locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado could accompany the strongest storms, before low/mid-level lapse rates and buoyancy become increasingly weak with time, and an outflow-reinforced effective front sags southward across the region. ...Texas Gulf Coast/Middle Gulf Coast... Somewhat stronger diurnal destabilization will be possible from parts of central/east Texas into Louisiana, and perhaps into Mississippi, with MLCAPE potentially increasing above 1500 J/kg. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible near a southward-moving cold front. Effective shear will generally range from 25-35 kt, and a few modestly organized storms are possible. Isolated damaging gusts could accompany the strongest storms within this regime. ...Florida Peninsula and Keys... Hurricane Helene's wind field is forecast to be rather large, especially on the east side of the circulation, associated with a strengthening Helene through the afternoon and tonight. Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest Helene details. This scenario will result in modestly strengthening low-level shear/SRH across the Florida Peninsula during the day, but more so into the evening and overnight after the peak diurnal instability cycle. Instability will likely remain rather weak overall, and details regarding the intensity of any outer rain bands remain uncertain. However, some tropical-cyclone tornado threat could evolve across parts of the Florida Peninsula and Keys, mainly into tonight. ...Eastern Washington/northern Idaho/northwest Montana... While buoyancy is expected to remain quite weak, relatively steep mid-level lapse rates will support thunderstorm potential late this afternoon through early evening from eastern Washington into northern Idaho and northwest Montana, in advance of the approaching shortwave trough. Strong deep-layer flow/shear could support a locally severe storm or two with gusty winds and possibly some hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms remain possible this afternoon from parts of the Southeast and central/southern Appalachians to the Texas/Louisiana Gulf Coast. Some tornado threat may still develop across the Florida Peninsula by this evening, in association with Hurricane Helene. ...20Z Update... The only changes made to the Day 1 Convective Outlook were to trim thunder and severe contours across the Gulf Coast into the OH Valley, where lightning and strong wind gust coverage should become increasingly sparse through the day. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 09/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024/ ..Southeast and southern Appalachians... The influence of the upstream mid/upper-level trough and moisture streaming north from the Gulf of Mexico and Helene will lead to widespread precipitation across parts of the Southeast and southern Appalachians. This will tend to limit available buoyancy in some areas, but strong to locally severe storms may occur. Favorable deep-layer winds/shear exist, especially across the southern Appalachians vicinity where a few semi-discrete supercells could occur aside from more prevalent quasi-linear convective bands. Locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado could accompany the strongest storms, before low/mid-level lapse rates and buoyancy become increasingly weak with time, and an outflow-reinforced effective front sags southward across the region. ...Texas Gulf Coast/Middle Gulf Coast... Somewhat stronger diurnal destabilization will be possible from parts of central/east Texas into Louisiana, and perhaps into Mississippi, with MLCAPE potentially increasing above 1500 J/kg. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible near a southward-moving cold front. Effective shear will generally range from 25-35 kt, and a few modestly organized storms are possible. Isolated damaging gusts could accompany the strongest storms within this regime. ...Florida Peninsula and Keys... Hurricane Helene's wind field is forecast to be rather large, especially on the east side of the circulation, associated with a strengthening Helene through the afternoon and tonight. Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest Helene details. This scenario will result in modestly strengthening low-level shear/SRH across the Florida Peninsula during the day, but more so into the evening and overnight after the peak diurnal instability cycle. Instability will likely remain rather weak overall, and details regarding the intensity of any outer rain bands remain uncertain. However, some tropical-cyclone tornado threat could evolve across parts of the Florida Peninsula and Keys, mainly into tonight. ...Eastern Washington/northern Idaho/northwest Montana... While buoyancy is expected to remain quite weak, relatively steep mid-level lapse rates will support thunderstorm potential late this afternoon through early evening from eastern Washington into northern Idaho and northwest Montana, in advance of the approaching shortwave trough. Strong deep-layer flow/shear could support a locally severe storm or two with gusty winds and possibly some hail. Read more

MD 2108 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS TO CENTRAL GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 2108 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Areas affected...southwestern Virginia and the western Carolinas to central Georgia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 251926Z - 252130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong storms -- a few of which reaching severe levels -- are expected near and east of the higher terrain of the Appalachians. All-hazards severe risk -- including a brief tornado or two -- will be possible with the strongest of these storms, but coverage of the more substantial convection may preclude the need for WW issuance. DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows high cloudiness expanding across the pre-frontal warm sector at this time, though until now, ample heating has resulted in modest destabilization (around 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE) near and just ahead of the slowly advancing cold front. Convection continues to gradually increase across the area, with one particularly organized storm now affecting the Habersham/Rabun County Georgia area, and -- soon -- portions of Oconee County South Carolina. The somewhat modest warm-sector CAPE is being partially offset -- in terms of potential for robust convection -- by relatively strong southwesterlies at mid levels southeast/east of the upper low near the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers. This flow, atop low-level southeasterlies, is providing shear sufficient for both mid-level and -- to some degree -- low-level rotation. Though overall coverage of the more robust storms is expected to remain limited, the area bears watching given the favorable kinematic environment. While current expectations are that a WW will not be required, we will continue to monitor convective evolution and possible/additional destabilization this afternoon. ..Goss/Guyer.. 09/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC... LAT...LON 32858455 35038307 37168089 36938007 35928020 33098306 32678379 32858455 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 09/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be low on Thursday. Hurricane Helene will be absorbed into the upper-level flow across the eastern US with widespread rainfall anticipated. Across the central and western US, a ridge of high pressure will remain in place with generally light winds. As such, no overlap of critically dry fuels with Elevated/Critical conditions is expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 09/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be low on Thursday. Hurricane Helene will be absorbed into the upper-level flow across the eastern US with widespread rainfall anticipated. Across the central and western US, a ridge of high pressure will remain in place with generally light winds. As such, no overlap of critically dry fuels with Elevated/Critical conditions is expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 09/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be low on Thursday. Hurricane Helene will be absorbed into the upper-level flow across the eastern US with widespread rainfall anticipated. Across the central and western US, a ridge of high pressure will remain in place with generally light winds. As such, no overlap of critically dry fuels with Elevated/Critical conditions is expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 09/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be low on Thursday. Hurricane Helene will be absorbed into the upper-level flow across the eastern US with widespread rainfall anticipated. Across the central and western US, a ridge of high pressure will remain in place with generally light winds. As such, no overlap of critically dry fuels with Elevated/Critical conditions is expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more