Aggregator

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... A risk for a few tornadoes and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts exists from the central Appalachians into the Carolinas and southern Virginia on Friday. ...Central Appalachians and Southern Mid-Atlantic... The expansive, enhanced low/midlevel flow field on the eastern periphery of the remnants of Hurricane Helene will impact the central Appalachians east to portions of coastal SC/NC/southern VA through Friday afternoon/evening. Convective bands will likely be ongoing Friday morning across the Pee Dee region of SC, and lift northward through the afternoon. As a dry slot punches quickly north/northeast behind this band of convection, the severe risk will quickly come to an end from south to north by late afternoon or early evening. Supercell wind profiles, with enlarged, looping low-level hodographs are evident in forecast soundings around the region. Strong 0-1 km SRH and surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F (resulting in favorable low-level instability) will support a tornado risk with cells within the northward moving convective bands. Furthermore, given the already strong low-level flow field, strong thunderstorm wind gusts also will be possible. ...TN/OH Valley vicinity... Strong winds will likely occur from the central Appalachians westward across the OH/TN Valley vicinity as Helene tracks north/northwest and becomes absorbed by the mid/upper cyclone over the Mid-South region. However, these gusty winds will be tied to the transitioning tropical system, and less influenced by convective processes, precluding severe probabilities. ..Leitman.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes will be possible later today into tonight, in association with Hurricane Helene. The greatest threat is expected from parts of Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. ...FL/GA into the Carolinas... Hurricane Helene is forecast to move north to north-northeast and accelerate across the eastern Gulf of Mexico today, with landfall expected in the Florida Big Bend region this evening. See NHC forecasts and advisories for more information. Increasing low-level flow/shear associated with Helene's large wind field will overspread the Florida Peninsula this morning, southeast Georgia and parts of SC by this afternoon, and eventually into parts of NC later tonight. Low-level hodographs will become quite large, with 0-1 km SRH increasing into at least the 250-500 m2/s2 range. This will support tornado potential with any low-topped supercells that are able to develop and persist within Helene's rain bands. Due to Helene's large size and fast forward speed, a broad region from Florida and Georgia northward into the Carolinas will see some risk for tornadoes. During the day, Helene's rain bands will overspread the FL Peninsula, with other outer bands potentially moving inland across parts of GA/SC and eventually NC through tonight. The Enhanced Risk has been maintained and expanded somewhat from extreme northeast FL into coastal GA/SC, where multiple low-topped supercells will be possible within an increasingly favorable environment. Some tornado potential will spread into parts of NC later tonight, with the northern extent of the primary tornado threat still somewhat uncertain and dependent on Helene's forward speed and track. ...Hudson Valley vicinity into southern New England... An upper low will move eastward across southern Quebec and adjacent portions of New England today. Strong large-scale ascent will aid in the development of convection during the afternoon from southern New England into the Hudson Valley. Lapse rates will be weak and buoyancy modest at best, but enhanced mid-level flow through the base of the upper low will support moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear. Consequently, a few stronger storms capable of gusty winds are possible, but confidence in sufficient destabilization is too low for severe probabilities at this time. ..Dean.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes will be possible later today into tonight, in association with Hurricane Helene. The greatest threat is expected from parts of Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. ...FL/GA into the Carolinas... Hurricane Helene is forecast to move north to north-northeast and accelerate across the eastern Gulf of Mexico today, with landfall expected in the Florida Big Bend region this evening. See NHC forecasts and advisories for more information. Increasing low-level flow/shear associated with Helene's large wind field will overspread the Florida Peninsula this morning, southeast Georgia and parts of SC by this afternoon, and eventually into parts of NC later tonight. Low-level hodographs will become quite large, with 0-1 km SRH increasing into at least the 250-500 m2/s2 range. This will support tornado potential with any low-topped supercells that are able to develop and persist within Helene's rain bands. Due to Helene's large size and fast forward speed, a broad region from Florida and Georgia northward into the Carolinas will see some risk for tornadoes. During the day, Helene's rain bands will overspread the FL Peninsula, with other outer bands potentially moving inland across parts of GA/SC and eventually NC through tonight. The Enhanced Risk has been maintained and expanded somewhat from extreme northeast FL into coastal GA/SC, where multiple low-topped supercells will be possible within an increasingly favorable environment. Some tornado potential will spread into parts of NC later tonight, with the northern extent of the primary tornado threat still somewhat uncertain and dependent on Helene's forward speed and track. ...Hudson Valley vicinity into southern New England... An upper low will move eastward across southern Quebec and adjacent portions of New England today. Strong large-scale ascent will aid in the development of convection during the afternoon from southern New England into the Hudson Valley. Lapse rates will be weak and buoyancy modest at best, but enhanced mid-level flow through the base of the upper low will support moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear. Consequently, a few stronger storms capable of gusty winds are possible, but confidence in sufficient destabilization is too low for severe probabilities at this time. ..Dean.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes will be possible later today into tonight, in association with Hurricane Helene. The greatest threat is expected from parts of Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. ...FL/GA into the Carolinas... Hurricane Helene is forecast to move north to north-northeast and accelerate across the eastern Gulf of Mexico today, with landfall expected in the Florida Big Bend region this evening. See NHC forecasts and advisories for more information. Increasing low-level flow/shear associated with Helene's large wind field will overspread the Florida Peninsula this morning, southeast Georgia and parts of SC by this afternoon, and eventually into parts of NC later tonight. Low-level hodographs will become quite large, with 0-1 km SRH increasing into at least the 250-500 m2/s2 range. This will support tornado potential with any low-topped supercells that are able to develop and persist within Helene's rain bands. Due to Helene's large size and fast forward speed, a broad region from Florida and Georgia northward into the Carolinas will see some risk for tornadoes. During the day, Helene's rain bands will overspread the FL Peninsula, with other outer bands potentially moving inland across parts of GA/SC and eventually NC through tonight. The Enhanced Risk has been maintained and expanded somewhat from extreme northeast FL into coastal GA/SC, where multiple low-topped supercells will be possible within an increasingly favorable environment. Some tornado potential will spread into parts of NC later tonight, with the northern extent of the primary tornado threat still somewhat uncertain and dependent on Helene's forward speed and track. ...Hudson Valley vicinity into southern New England... An upper low will move eastward across southern Quebec and adjacent portions of New England today. Strong large-scale ascent will aid in the development of convection during the afternoon from southern New England into the Hudson Valley. Lapse rates will be weak and buoyancy modest at best, but enhanced mid-level flow through the base of the upper low will support moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear. Consequently, a few stronger storms capable of gusty winds are possible, but confidence in sufficient destabilization is too low for severe probabilities at this time. ..Dean.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes will be possible later today into tonight, in association with Hurricane Helene. The greatest threat is expected from parts of Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. ...FL/GA into the Carolinas... Hurricane Helene is forecast to move north to north-northeast and accelerate across the eastern Gulf of Mexico today, with landfall expected in the Florida Big Bend region this evening. See NHC forecasts and advisories for more information. Increasing low-level flow/shear associated with Helene's large wind field will overspread the Florida Peninsula this morning, southeast Georgia and parts of SC by this afternoon, and eventually into parts of NC later tonight. Low-level hodographs will become quite large, with 0-1 km SRH increasing into at least the 250-500 m2/s2 range. This will support tornado potential with any low-topped supercells that are able to develop and persist within Helene's rain bands. Due to Helene's large size and fast forward speed, a broad region from Florida and Georgia northward into the Carolinas will see some risk for tornadoes. During the day, Helene's rain bands will overspread the FL Peninsula, with other outer bands potentially moving inland across parts of GA/SC and eventually NC through tonight. The Enhanced Risk has been maintained and expanded somewhat from extreme northeast FL into coastal GA/SC, where multiple low-topped supercells will be possible within an increasingly favorable environment. Some tornado potential will spread into parts of NC later tonight, with the northern extent of the primary tornado threat still somewhat uncertain and dependent on Helene's forward speed and track. ...Hudson Valley vicinity into southern New England... An upper low will move eastward across southern Quebec and adjacent portions of New England today. Strong large-scale ascent will aid in the development of convection during the afternoon from southern New England into the Hudson Valley. Lapse rates will be weak and buoyancy modest at best, but enhanced mid-level flow through the base of the upper low will support moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear. Consequently, a few stronger storms capable of gusty winds are possible, but confidence in sufficient destabilization is too low for severe probabilities at this time. ..Dean.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes will be possible later today into tonight, in association with Hurricane Helene. The greatest threat is expected from parts of Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. ...FL/GA into the Carolinas... Hurricane Helene is forecast to move north to north-northeast and accelerate across the eastern Gulf of Mexico today, with landfall expected in the Florida Big Bend region this evening. See NHC forecasts and advisories for more information. Increasing low-level flow/shear associated with Helene's large wind field will overspread the Florida Peninsula this morning, southeast Georgia and parts of SC by this afternoon, and eventually into parts of NC later tonight. Low-level hodographs will become quite large, with 0-1 km SRH increasing into at least the 250-500 m2/s2 range. This will support tornado potential with any low-topped supercells that are able to develop and persist within Helene's rain bands. Due to Helene's large size and fast forward speed, a broad region from Florida and Georgia northward into the Carolinas will see some risk for tornadoes. During the day, Helene's rain bands will overspread the FL Peninsula, with other outer bands potentially moving inland across parts of GA/SC and eventually NC through tonight. The Enhanced Risk has been maintained and expanded somewhat from extreme northeast FL into coastal GA/SC, where multiple low-topped supercells will be possible within an increasingly favorable environment. Some tornado potential will spread into parts of NC later tonight, with the northern extent of the primary tornado threat still somewhat uncertain and dependent on Helene's forward speed and track. ...Hudson Valley vicinity into southern New England... An upper low will move eastward across southern Quebec and adjacent portions of New England today. Strong large-scale ascent will aid in the development of convection during the afternoon from southern New England into the Hudson Valley. Lapse rates will be weak and buoyancy modest at best, but enhanced mid-level flow through the base of the upper low will support moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear. Consequently, a few stronger storms capable of gusty winds are possible, but confidence in sufficient destabilization is too low for severe probabilities at this time. ..Dean.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes will be possible later today into tonight, in association with Hurricane Helene. The greatest threat is expected from parts of Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. ...FL/GA into the Carolinas... Hurricane Helene is forecast to move north to north-northeast and accelerate across the eastern Gulf of Mexico today, with landfall expected in the Florida Big Bend region this evening. See NHC forecasts and advisories for more information. Increasing low-level flow/shear associated with Helene's large wind field will overspread the Florida Peninsula this morning, southeast Georgia and parts of SC by this afternoon, and eventually into parts of NC later tonight. Low-level hodographs will become quite large, with 0-1 km SRH increasing into at least the 250-500 m2/s2 range. This will support tornado potential with any low-topped supercells that are able to develop and persist within Helene's rain bands. Due to Helene's large size and fast forward speed, a broad region from Florida and Georgia northward into the Carolinas will see some risk for tornadoes. During the day, Helene's rain bands will overspread the FL Peninsula, with other outer bands potentially moving inland across parts of GA/SC and eventually NC through tonight. The Enhanced Risk has been maintained and expanded somewhat from extreme northeast FL into coastal GA/SC, where multiple low-topped supercells will be possible within an increasingly favorable environment. Some tornado potential will spread into parts of NC later tonight, with the northern extent of the primary tornado threat still somewhat uncertain and dependent on Helene's forward speed and track. ...Hudson Valley vicinity into southern New England... An upper low will move eastward across southern Quebec and adjacent portions of New England today. Strong large-scale ascent will aid in the development of convection during the afternoon from southern New England into the Hudson Valley. Lapse rates will be weak and buoyancy modest at best, but enhanced mid-level flow through the base of the upper low will support moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear. Consequently, a few stronger storms capable of gusty winds are possible, but confidence in sufficient destabilization is too low for severe probabilities at this time. ..Dean.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on Friday. High pressure will continue to build in across the western US with warming temperatures and some drying of fuels. Overall, high pressure will keep winds light and fire concerns low. Across the eastern US, remnants of Hurricane Helene will bring strong winds but also widespread heavy rainfall. Overall, no overlap of Elevated/Critical conditions with receptive fuels is expected on Friday. ..Thornton.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on Friday. High pressure will continue to build in across the western US with warming temperatures and some drying of fuels. Overall, high pressure will keep winds light and fire concerns low. Across the eastern US, remnants of Hurricane Helene will bring strong winds but also widespread heavy rainfall. Overall, no overlap of Elevated/Critical conditions with receptive fuels is expected on Friday. ..Thornton.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on Friday. High pressure will continue to build in across the western US with warming temperatures and some drying of fuels. Overall, high pressure will keep winds light and fire concerns low. Across the eastern US, remnants of Hurricane Helene will bring strong winds but also widespread heavy rainfall. Overall, no overlap of Elevated/Critical conditions with receptive fuels is expected on Friday. ..Thornton.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on Friday. High pressure will continue to build in across the western US with warming temperatures and some drying of fuels. Overall, high pressure will keep winds light and fire concerns low. Across the eastern US, remnants of Hurricane Helene will bring strong winds but also widespread heavy rainfall. Overall, no overlap of Elevated/Critical conditions with receptive fuels is expected on Friday. ..Thornton.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on Friday. High pressure will continue to build in across the western US with warming temperatures and some drying of fuels. Overall, high pressure will keep winds light and fire concerns low. Across the eastern US, remnants of Hurricane Helene will bring strong winds but also widespread heavy rainfall. Overall, no overlap of Elevated/Critical conditions with receptive fuels is expected on Friday. ..Thornton.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on Friday. High pressure will continue to build in across the western US with warming temperatures and some drying of fuels. Overall, high pressure will keep winds light and fire concerns low. Across the eastern US, remnants of Hurricane Helene will bring strong winds but also widespread heavy rainfall. Overall, no overlap of Elevated/Critical conditions with receptive fuels is expected on Friday. ..Thornton.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 26 Sep 2024 05:41:33 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 26 Sep 2024 03:35:02 GMT

Issued at 1200 AM CST Thu Sep 26 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 260541 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm John Intermediate Advisory Number 13A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 1200 AM CST Thu Sep 26 2024 ...JOHN NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH... ...CATASTROPHIC LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 102.4W ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM S OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM SW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...28.99 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Maldonado to Tecpan de Galeana A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm John was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 102.4 West. John is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or two, followed by a gradual turn to the west-northwest on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of John is forecast to approach the southwestern coast of Mexico by tonight and move along the coast or inland on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. John is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane later today, with additional strengthening expected until the center moves along the coast or inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (28.99 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Through Friday, Tropical Storm John is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches with isolated totals around 30 inches across portions of the Mexican States of Guerrero, Oaxaca and Michoacan. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with John, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected along the coast within the hurricane warning area by tonight or early Friday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength later this morning, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are currently occurring over portions of the coast within the tropical storm warning area, and should continue through today. SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue to affect the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico through the week, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents. Please see local statements for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Roberts

...JOHN NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH... ...CATASTROPHIC LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... As of 12:00 AM CST Thu Sep 26 the center of John was located near 17.0, -102.4 with movement NW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 982 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

882
ABPZ20 KNHC 260525
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Sep 25 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm John, located just south of southwestern Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm John are issued under WMO
header WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm John are issued under WMO
header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

$$
Forecaster Papin

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... The pattern across the US on Thursday will be characterized by Hurricane Helene moving inland and becoming absorbed into the upper-level flow across the eastern US as a ridge of high pressure continues to be in place across the western US. Across the northern Rockies, a shortwave trough will traverse the northern periphery of the ridge with a dry cold front sagging southward into the northern Plains through the period. Ahead of the front, relative humidity around 15-20 percent will be possible across portions of eastern Wyoming into South Dakota. The frontal passage will bring an increase in surface winds, with sustained winds around 20-25 mph. There is some question as to what the duration of overlap will be between the lower relative humidity and stronger wind speeds. HREF probabilities of Elevated to Critical conditions remain generally around 30-40 percent. Fuels across much of eastern Wyoming into South Dakota are critically dry. Taking into account the possibility of briefly Elevated to locally Critical conditions, an Elevated area was included with this outlook given the uncertainty. ..Thornton.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... The pattern across the US on Thursday will be characterized by Hurricane Helene moving inland and becoming absorbed into the upper-level flow across the eastern US as a ridge of high pressure continues to be in place across the western US. Across the northern Rockies, a shortwave trough will traverse the northern periphery of the ridge with a dry cold front sagging southward into the northern Plains through the period. Ahead of the front, relative humidity around 15-20 percent will be possible across portions of eastern Wyoming into South Dakota. The frontal passage will bring an increase in surface winds, with sustained winds around 20-25 mph. There is some question as to what the duration of overlap will be between the lower relative humidity and stronger wind speeds. HREF probabilities of Elevated to Critical conditions remain generally around 30-40 percent. Fuels across much of eastern Wyoming into South Dakota are critically dry. Taking into account the possibility of briefly Elevated to locally Critical conditions, an Elevated area was included with this outlook given the uncertainty. ..Thornton.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... The pattern across the US on Thursday will be characterized by Hurricane Helene moving inland and becoming absorbed into the upper-level flow across the eastern US as a ridge of high pressure continues to be in place across the western US. Across the northern Rockies, a shortwave trough will traverse the northern periphery of the ridge with a dry cold front sagging southward into the northern Plains through the period. Ahead of the front, relative humidity around 15-20 percent will be possible across portions of eastern Wyoming into South Dakota. The frontal passage will bring an increase in surface winds, with sustained winds around 20-25 mph. There is some question as to what the duration of overlap will be between the lower relative humidity and stronger wind speeds. HREF probabilities of Elevated to Critical conditions remain generally around 30-40 percent. Fuels across much of eastern Wyoming into South Dakota are critically dry. Taking into account the possibility of briefly Elevated to locally Critical conditions, an Elevated area was included with this outlook given the uncertainty. ..Thornton.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more