Aggregator

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated weak thunderstorms are possible from southeast New Mexico to central Texas today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The large-scale pattern will begin to change today, with the deep upper trough over the northeastern CONUS lifting into eastern CA through the period. This will result in warming aloft over much of the MS/OH Valleys, Midwest and Great Lakes. To the west, a mean ridge will remain over the Pacific Coast, with a slow-moving upper low over northern MX and southern AZ/NM. This feature will be embedded within a positive-tilt trough, with a weakening trend. At the surface, high pressure over the mid to lower MS Valley will move into the southeastern CONUS, with northeast surface winds maintaining a stable surface air mass. Another high will reside over the Great Basin. In advance of the low over AZ/NM/MX, southerly winds of 15-25 kt will develop over the southern Plains tonight, with modest levels of theta-e advection. Given cool temperatures aloft, this will be enough to support increasing rain and thunderstorm chances, as elevated buoyancy of a few hundred J/kg develops. Weak instability will not support any severe threat. ..Jewell/Moore.. 12/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated weak thunderstorms are possible from southeast New Mexico to central Texas today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The large-scale pattern will begin to change today, with the deep upper trough over the northeastern CONUS lifting into eastern CA through the period. This will result in warming aloft over much of the MS/OH Valleys, Midwest and Great Lakes. To the west, a mean ridge will remain over the Pacific Coast, with a slow-moving upper low over northern MX and southern AZ/NM. This feature will be embedded within a positive-tilt trough, with a weakening trend. At the surface, high pressure over the mid to lower MS Valley will move into the southeastern CONUS, with northeast surface winds maintaining a stable surface air mass. Another high will reside over the Great Basin. In advance of the low over AZ/NM/MX, southerly winds of 15-25 kt will develop over the southern Plains tonight, with modest levels of theta-e advection. Given cool temperatures aloft, this will be enough to support increasing rain and thunderstorm chances, as elevated buoyancy of a few hundred J/kg develops. Weak instability will not support any severe threat. ..Jewell/Moore.. 12/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated weak thunderstorms are possible from southeast New Mexico to central Texas today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The large-scale pattern will begin to change today, with the deep upper trough over the northeastern CONUS lifting into eastern CA through the period. This will result in warming aloft over much of the MS/OH Valleys, Midwest and Great Lakes. To the west, a mean ridge will remain over the Pacific Coast, with a slow-moving upper low over northern MX and southern AZ/NM. This feature will be embedded within a positive-tilt trough, with a weakening trend. At the surface, high pressure over the mid to lower MS Valley will move into the southeastern CONUS, with northeast surface winds maintaining a stable surface air mass. Another high will reside over the Great Basin. In advance of the low over AZ/NM/MX, southerly winds of 15-25 kt will develop over the southern Plains tonight, with modest levels of theta-e advection. Given cool temperatures aloft, this will be enough to support increasing rain and thunderstorm chances, as elevated buoyancy of a few hundred J/kg develops. Weak instability will not support any severe threat. ..Jewell/Moore.. 12/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 PM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... Dry conditions will persist over much of the CONUS owing to high pressure at the surface. A low-latitude shortwave trough now over northwest MX will remain nearly stationary through the period, with cool air aloft extending east across AZ, NM and southwest TX. The presence of midlevel moisture and weak elevated instability may support a few thunderstorms over far southern NM into far west TX tonight and into Friday morning. Such weak instability will not favor severe weather. ..Jewell.. 12/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 PM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... Dry conditions will persist over much of the CONUS owing to high pressure at the surface. A low-latitude shortwave trough now over northwest MX will remain nearly stationary through the period, with cool air aloft extending east across AZ, NM and southwest TX. The presence of midlevel moisture and weak elevated instability may support a few thunderstorms over far southern NM into far west TX tonight and into Friday morning. Such weak instability will not favor severe weather. ..Jewell.. 12/06/2024 Read more

Although Pennsylvania game officials thought that the drought would not affect hunting, a Westmoreland County processor has noticed a difference in the size and quality of antlers and the amount of quality meat that has been returned to archery hunters. Does have not had as much body fat. “They’re just not really yielding meat they would have in the past,” she said, blaming the dry weather for limited food supplies. A board member with the Allegheny County Sportsmen’s League agreed that the deer were thinner than usual. TRIBLive (Tarentum, Pa.), Nov 30, 2024

No watches are valid as of Thu Dec 5 23:54:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Dec 5 23:54:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z ...Days 5-6/Monday-Tuesday - Southern California... A belt of strong north-northwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the West Coast, aiding in large-scale trough amplification over the western CONUS. At the same time, a highly amplified upstream ridge will build over the eastern Pacific, promoting strengthening surface high pressure over the Intermountain West. As a result, the offshore pressure gradient will tighten across southern CA (LAX-DAG gradient around -5 to -7 mb). This gradient and the upper-level support will favor critical fire-weather conditions across portions of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties in southern CA, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. Confidence in the development of critical conditions is highest on Day 6/Tuesday as the pressure gradient peaks, and 70-percent Critical probabilities have been added for this timeframe. The onset of critical conditions is still uncertain, and higher probabilities may eventually be needed for the Day 5/Monday overnight period. Elsewhere, strong westerly surface winds and locally dry conditions are expected in the vicinity of a deepening lee trough over the southern High Plains on Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday. However, fuels do not appear supportive of large-fire potential at this time. ..Weinman.. 12/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z ...Days 5-6/Monday-Tuesday - Southern California... A belt of strong north-northwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the West Coast, aiding in large-scale trough amplification over the western CONUS. At the same time, a highly amplified upstream ridge will build over the eastern Pacific, promoting strengthening surface high pressure over the Intermountain West. As a result, the offshore pressure gradient will tighten across southern CA (LAX-DAG gradient around -5 to -7 mb). This gradient and the upper-level support will favor critical fire-weather conditions across portions of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties in southern CA, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. Confidence in the development of critical conditions is highest on Day 6/Tuesday as the pressure gradient peaks, and 70-percent Critical probabilities have been added for this timeframe. The onset of critical conditions is still uncertain, and higher probabilities may eventually be needed for the Day 5/Monday overnight period. Elsewhere, strong westerly surface winds and locally dry conditions are expected in the vicinity of a deepening lee trough over the southern High Plains on Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday. However, fuels do not appear supportive of large-fire potential at this time. ..Weinman.. 12/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z ...Days 5-6/Monday-Tuesday - Southern California... A belt of strong north-northwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the West Coast, aiding in large-scale trough amplification over the western CONUS. At the same time, a highly amplified upstream ridge will build over the eastern Pacific, promoting strengthening surface high pressure over the Intermountain West. As a result, the offshore pressure gradient will tighten across southern CA (LAX-DAG gradient around -5 to -7 mb). This gradient and the upper-level support will favor critical fire-weather conditions across portions of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties in southern CA, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. Confidence in the development of critical conditions is highest on Day 6/Tuesday as the pressure gradient peaks, and 70-percent Critical probabilities have been added for this timeframe. The onset of critical conditions is still uncertain, and higher probabilities may eventually be needed for the Day 5/Monday overnight period. Elsewhere, strong westerly surface winds and locally dry conditions are expected in the vicinity of a deepening lee trough over the southern High Plains on Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday. However, fuels do not appear supportive of large-fire potential at this time. ..Weinman.. 12/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z ...Days 5-6/Monday-Tuesday - Southern California... A belt of strong north-northwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the West Coast, aiding in large-scale trough amplification over the western CONUS. At the same time, a highly amplified upstream ridge will build over the eastern Pacific, promoting strengthening surface high pressure over the Intermountain West. As a result, the offshore pressure gradient will tighten across southern CA (LAX-DAG gradient around -5 to -7 mb). This gradient and the upper-level support will favor critical fire-weather conditions across portions of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties in southern CA, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. Confidence in the development of critical conditions is highest on Day 6/Tuesday as the pressure gradient peaks, and 70-percent Critical probabilities have been added for this timeframe. The onset of critical conditions is still uncertain, and higher probabilities may eventually be needed for the Day 5/Monday overnight period. Elsewhere, strong westerly surface winds and locally dry conditions are expected in the vicinity of a deepening lee trough over the southern High Plains on Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday. However, fuels do not appear supportive of large-fire potential at this time. ..Weinman.. 12/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... Surface high pressure with cold offshore flow will continue over much of the CONUS through the remainder of today and tonight. This will end the thunderstorm threat across parts of the Gulf Coast as the meager remaining buoyancy is forced offshore. Isolated, mostly elevated, storms will still remain possible over parts of West TX and NM tonight. However, very weak buoyancy will negate any severe threat. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 12/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Thu Dec 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad and deep upper trough is present today over the eastern CONUS, with widespread stable conditions. The only areas with some risk of thunderstorms will be along the Gulf Coast this afternoon, and in vicinity of southern NM/southwest TX later tonight. In both areas, weak instability will preclude a concern for severe storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... Surface high pressure with cold offshore flow will continue over much of the CONUS through the remainder of today and tonight. This will end the thunderstorm threat across parts of the Gulf Coast as the meager remaining buoyancy is forced offshore. Isolated, mostly elevated, storms will still remain possible over parts of West TX and NM tonight. However, very weak buoyancy will negate any severe threat. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 12/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Thu Dec 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad and deep upper trough is present today over the eastern CONUS, with widespread stable conditions. The only areas with some risk of thunderstorms will be along the Gulf Coast this afternoon, and in vicinity of southern NM/southwest TX later tonight. In both areas, weak instability will preclude a concern for severe storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... Surface high pressure with cold offshore flow will continue over much of the CONUS through the remainder of today and tonight. This will end the thunderstorm threat across parts of the Gulf Coast as the meager remaining buoyancy is forced offshore. Isolated, mostly elevated, storms will still remain possible over parts of West TX and NM tonight. However, very weak buoyancy will negate any severe threat. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 12/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Thu Dec 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad and deep upper trough is present today over the eastern CONUS, with widespread stable conditions. The only areas with some risk of thunderstorms will be along the Gulf Coast this afternoon, and in vicinity of southern NM/southwest TX later tonight. In both areas, weak instability will preclude a concern for severe storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... Surface high pressure with cold offshore flow will continue over much of the CONUS through the remainder of today and tonight. This will end the thunderstorm threat across parts of the Gulf Coast as the meager remaining buoyancy is forced offshore. Isolated, mostly elevated, storms will still remain possible over parts of West TX and NM tonight. However, very weak buoyancy will negate any severe threat. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 12/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Thu Dec 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad and deep upper trough is present today over the eastern CONUS, with widespread stable conditions. The only areas with some risk of thunderstorms will be along the Gulf Coast this afternoon, and in vicinity of southern NM/southwest TX later tonight. In both areas, weak instability will preclude a concern for severe storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... Surface high pressure with cold offshore flow will continue over much of the CONUS through the remainder of today and tonight. This will end the thunderstorm threat across parts of the Gulf Coast as the meager remaining buoyancy is forced offshore. Isolated, mostly elevated, storms will still remain possible over parts of West TX and NM tonight. However, very weak buoyancy will negate any severe threat. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 12/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Thu Dec 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad and deep upper trough is present today over the eastern CONUS, with widespread stable conditions. The only areas with some risk of thunderstorms will be along the Gulf Coast this afternoon, and in vicinity of southern NM/southwest TX later tonight. In both areas, weak instability will preclude a concern for severe storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... Surface high pressure with cold offshore flow will continue over much of the CONUS through the remainder of today and tonight. This will end the thunderstorm threat across parts of the Gulf Coast as the meager remaining buoyancy is forced offshore. Isolated, mostly elevated, storms will still remain possible over parts of West TX and NM tonight. However, very weak buoyancy will negate any severe threat. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 12/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Thu Dec 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad and deep upper trough is present today over the eastern CONUS, with widespread stable conditions. The only areas with some risk of thunderstorms will be along the Gulf Coast this afternoon, and in vicinity of southern NM/southwest TX later tonight. In both areas, weak instability will preclude a concern for severe storms. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 PM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z The only change with this update was the addition of an Elevated area for portions of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties in southern CA. Here, high-resolution guidance has come into good agreement, depicting 15-20 mph sustained northeasterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 10-15 percent RH. Given the potential for brief/localized critical conditions and substantial fuel loading, the targeted Elevated highlights are warranted. ..Weinman.. 12/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CST Thu Dec 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low on Friday, as much of the CONUS remains under a cool air mass with widespread precipitation across the eastern US. Weak midlevel trough will remain over the Southwest with upstream surface high pressure encouraging locally dry/breezy offshore flow across southern CA. Some locally Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible. Areas are expected to remain localized, which will preclude the need to add areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 PM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z The only change with this update was the addition of an Elevated area for portions of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties in southern CA. Here, high-resolution guidance has come into good agreement, depicting 15-20 mph sustained northeasterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 10-15 percent RH. Given the potential for brief/localized critical conditions and substantial fuel loading, the targeted Elevated highlights are warranted. ..Weinman.. 12/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CST Thu Dec 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low on Friday, as much of the CONUS remains under a cool air mass with widespread precipitation across the eastern US. Weak midlevel trough will remain over the Southwest with upstream surface high pressure encouraging locally dry/breezy offshore flow across southern CA. Some locally Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible. Areas are expected to remain localized, which will preclude the need to add areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more