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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Limited fire weather concerns are expected for Saturday across the country, though localized concerns are possible within the higher terrain of the southern CA coast. The persistent offshore flow regime over southern CA is expected to slowly abate through the day Saturday as the upper trough currently over southern AZ ejects into the southern Plains, resulting in weakening low to mid-level flow across the region. Areas of elevated fire weather conditions (featuring 15-25 mph winds and 15-20% RH) will likely be ongoing at the start of the period within the higher terrain, but should become more isolated after 18 UTC. While similar wind/RH conditions are possible early Saturday compared to today (Friday), latest high-res guidance suggests the overall coverage of such conditions should be more limited, which precludes highlights at this time, though trends will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 12/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Limited fire weather concerns are expected for Saturday across the country, though localized concerns are possible within the higher terrain of the southern CA coast. The persistent offshore flow regime over southern CA is expected to slowly abate through the day Saturday as the upper trough currently over southern AZ ejects into the southern Plains, resulting in weakening low to mid-level flow across the region. Areas of elevated fire weather conditions (featuring 15-25 mph winds and 15-20% RH) will likely be ongoing at the start of the period within the higher terrain, but should become more isolated after 18 UTC. While similar wind/RH conditions are possible early Saturday compared to today (Friday), latest high-res guidance suggests the overall coverage of such conditions should be more limited, which precludes highlights at this time, though trends will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 12/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Limited fire weather concerns are expected for Saturday across the country, though localized concerns are possible within the higher terrain of the southern CA coast. The persistent offshore flow regime over southern CA is expected to slowly abate through the day Saturday as the upper trough currently over southern AZ ejects into the southern Plains, resulting in weakening low to mid-level flow across the region. Areas of elevated fire weather conditions (featuring 15-25 mph winds and 15-20% RH) will likely be ongoing at the start of the period within the higher terrain, but should become more isolated after 18 UTC. While similar wind/RH conditions are possible early Saturday compared to today (Friday), latest high-res guidance suggests the overall coverage of such conditions should be more limited, which precludes highlights at this time, though trends will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 12/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... Localized elevated fire weather conditions are expected for portions of the southern CA coast through the day and into the overnight hours. 06 UTC surface observations show a seasonally strong surface high over the northern Great Basin (MSLP values between the 75th to 90th percentile for early December). This feature, combined with a weak trough axis along the CA coast, has maintained a persistent DAG-LAX pressure gradient between -5 to -8 mb over the past 24 hours. Offshore winds are forecast to increase through 18 UTC as the pressure gradient gradually strengthens before slowly abating through the remainder of the forecast period. A shallow marine layer evident in the 00 UTC VBG sounding and coastal surface obs is expected to mix out as winds strengthen, but the warmest/driest conditions will likely reside within the thermal layer above 1700 ft (also evident in the VBG sounding and surface obs). Latest high-res guidance suggests the offshore pressure gradient will approach critical thresholds by around 16-18 UTC and may support gusts within the higher terrain between 20-30 mph as RH values fall into the teens. As such, pockets of elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible through much of the southern CA coastal terrain - though appear most persistent/widespread between the San Gabriel and San Rafael Mountains where terrain influences will locally augment the gradient winds. Elevated fire weather conditions should become increasingly isolated through late afternoon, but may persist for some locations through early Saturday morning. ..Moore.. 12/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... Localized elevated fire weather conditions are expected for portions of the southern CA coast through the day and into the overnight hours. 06 UTC surface observations show a seasonally strong surface high over the northern Great Basin (MSLP values between the 75th to 90th percentile for early December). This feature, combined with a weak trough axis along the CA coast, has maintained a persistent DAG-LAX pressure gradient between -5 to -8 mb over the past 24 hours. Offshore winds are forecast to increase through 18 UTC as the pressure gradient gradually strengthens before slowly abating through the remainder of the forecast period. A shallow marine layer evident in the 00 UTC VBG sounding and coastal surface obs is expected to mix out as winds strengthen, but the warmest/driest conditions will likely reside within the thermal layer above 1700 ft (also evident in the VBG sounding and surface obs). Latest high-res guidance suggests the offshore pressure gradient will approach critical thresholds by around 16-18 UTC and may support gusts within the higher terrain between 20-30 mph as RH values fall into the teens. As such, pockets of elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible through much of the southern CA coastal terrain - though appear most persistent/widespread between the San Gabriel and San Rafael Mountains where terrain influences will locally augment the gradient winds. Elevated fire weather conditions should become increasingly isolated through late afternoon, but may persist for some locations through early Saturday morning. ..Moore.. 12/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... Localized elevated fire weather conditions are expected for portions of the southern CA coast through the day and into the overnight hours. 06 UTC surface observations show a seasonally strong surface high over the northern Great Basin (MSLP values between the 75th to 90th percentile for early December). This feature, combined with a weak trough axis along the CA coast, has maintained a persistent DAG-LAX pressure gradient between -5 to -8 mb over the past 24 hours. Offshore winds are forecast to increase through 18 UTC as the pressure gradient gradually strengthens before slowly abating through the remainder of the forecast period. A shallow marine layer evident in the 00 UTC VBG sounding and coastal surface obs is expected to mix out as winds strengthen, but the warmest/driest conditions will likely reside within the thermal layer above 1700 ft (also evident in the VBG sounding and surface obs). Latest high-res guidance suggests the offshore pressure gradient will approach critical thresholds by around 16-18 UTC and may support gusts within the higher terrain between 20-30 mph as RH values fall into the teens. As such, pockets of elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible through much of the southern CA coastal terrain - though appear most persistent/widespread between the San Gabriel and San Rafael Mountains where terrain influences will locally augment the gradient winds. Elevated fire weather conditions should become increasingly isolated through late afternoon, but may persist for some locations through early Saturday morning. ..Moore.. 12/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... Localized elevated fire weather conditions are expected for portions of the southern CA coast through the day and into the overnight hours. 06 UTC surface observations show a seasonally strong surface high over the northern Great Basin (MSLP values between the 75th to 90th percentile for early December). This feature, combined with a weak trough axis along the CA coast, has maintained a persistent DAG-LAX pressure gradient between -5 to -8 mb over the past 24 hours. Offshore winds are forecast to increase through 18 UTC as the pressure gradient gradually strengthens before slowly abating through the remainder of the forecast period. A shallow marine layer evident in the 00 UTC VBG sounding and coastal surface obs is expected to mix out as winds strengthen, but the warmest/driest conditions will likely reside within the thermal layer above 1700 ft (also evident in the VBG sounding and surface obs). Latest high-res guidance suggests the offshore pressure gradient will approach critical thresholds by around 16-18 UTC and may support gusts within the higher terrain between 20-30 mph as RH values fall into the teens. As such, pockets of elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible through much of the southern CA coastal terrain - though appear most persistent/widespread between the San Gabriel and San Rafael Mountains where terrain influences will locally augment the gradient winds. Elevated fire weather conditions should become increasingly isolated through late afternoon, but may persist for some locations through early Saturday morning. ..Moore.. 12/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... Localized elevated fire weather conditions are expected for portions of the southern CA coast through the day and into the overnight hours. 06 UTC surface observations show a seasonally strong surface high over the northern Great Basin (MSLP values between the 75th to 90th percentile for early December). This feature, combined with a weak trough axis along the CA coast, has maintained a persistent DAG-LAX pressure gradient between -5 to -8 mb over the past 24 hours. Offshore winds are forecast to increase through 18 UTC as the pressure gradient gradually strengthens before slowly abating through the remainder of the forecast period. A shallow marine layer evident in the 00 UTC VBG sounding and coastal surface obs is expected to mix out as winds strengthen, but the warmest/driest conditions will likely reside within the thermal layer above 1700 ft (also evident in the VBG sounding and surface obs). Latest high-res guidance suggests the offshore pressure gradient will approach critical thresholds by around 16-18 UTC and may support gusts within the higher terrain between 20-30 mph as RH values fall into the teens. As such, pockets of elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible through much of the southern CA coastal terrain - though appear most persistent/widespread between the San Gabriel and San Rafael Mountains where terrain influences will locally augment the gradient winds. Elevated fire weather conditions should become increasingly isolated through late afternoon, but may persist for some locations through early Saturday morning. ..Moore.. 12/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... Localized elevated fire weather conditions are expected for portions of the southern CA coast through the day and into the overnight hours. 06 UTC surface observations show a seasonally strong surface high over the northern Great Basin (MSLP values between the 75th to 90th percentile for early December). This feature, combined with a weak trough axis along the CA coast, has maintained a persistent DAG-LAX pressure gradient between -5 to -8 mb over the past 24 hours. Offshore winds are forecast to increase through 18 UTC as the pressure gradient gradually strengthens before slowly abating through the remainder of the forecast period. A shallow marine layer evident in the 00 UTC VBG sounding and coastal surface obs is expected to mix out as winds strengthen, but the warmest/driest conditions will likely reside within the thermal layer above 1700 ft (also evident in the VBG sounding and surface obs). Latest high-res guidance suggests the offshore pressure gradient will approach critical thresholds by around 16-18 UTC and may support gusts within the higher terrain between 20-30 mph as RH values fall into the teens. As such, pockets of elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible through much of the southern CA coastal terrain - though appear most persistent/widespread between the San Gabriel and San Rafael Mountains where terrain influences will locally augment the gradient winds. Elevated fire weather conditions should become increasingly isolated through late afternoon, but may persist for some locations through early Saturday morning. ..Moore.. 12/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are likely across a large portion of Texas on Saturday. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... A southern-stream upper low is forecast to begin the period over the AZ/NM/Mexico border intersection vicinity before progressing northeastward through the southern High Plains throughout the period. Enhanced mid-level flow will accompany this low, spreading eastward across the southern Plains. Low-level flow across the southern Plains will also increase ahead of this system, resulting in strengthening warm-air advection throughout the day. Surface easterlies are expected across the Gulf of Mexico, but a stationary boundary along the TX Coast will prevent inland penetration of any notable low-level moisture. Even so, moderate mid-level moisture and increasing large-scale lift ahead of the approaching upper low will result in a large area of precipitation. Cooling mid-level temperatures may help support modest buoyancy, with isolated thunderstorms expected within the larger precipitation shield. The probability of any severe thunderstorms is very low. ..Mosier.. 12/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are likely across a large portion of Texas on Saturday. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... A southern-stream upper low is forecast to begin the period over the AZ/NM/Mexico border intersection vicinity before progressing northeastward through the southern High Plains throughout the period. Enhanced mid-level flow will accompany this low, spreading eastward across the southern Plains. Low-level flow across the southern Plains will also increase ahead of this system, resulting in strengthening warm-air advection throughout the day. Surface easterlies are expected across the Gulf of Mexico, but a stationary boundary along the TX Coast will prevent inland penetration of any notable low-level moisture. Even so, moderate mid-level moisture and increasing large-scale lift ahead of the approaching upper low will result in a large area of precipitation. Cooling mid-level temperatures may help support modest buoyancy, with isolated thunderstorms expected within the larger precipitation shield. The probability of any severe thunderstorms is very low. ..Mosier.. 12/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are likely across a large portion of Texas on Saturday. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... A southern-stream upper low is forecast to begin the period over the AZ/NM/Mexico border intersection vicinity before progressing northeastward through the southern High Plains throughout the period. Enhanced mid-level flow will accompany this low, spreading eastward across the southern Plains. Low-level flow across the southern Plains will also increase ahead of this system, resulting in strengthening warm-air advection throughout the day. Surface easterlies are expected across the Gulf of Mexico, but a stationary boundary along the TX Coast will prevent inland penetration of any notable low-level moisture. Even so, moderate mid-level moisture and increasing large-scale lift ahead of the approaching upper low will result in a large area of precipitation. Cooling mid-level temperatures may help support modest buoyancy, with isolated thunderstorms expected within the larger precipitation shield. The probability of any severe thunderstorms is very low. ..Mosier.. 12/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are likely across a large portion of Texas on Saturday. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... A southern-stream upper low is forecast to begin the period over the AZ/NM/Mexico border intersection vicinity before progressing northeastward through the southern High Plains throughout the period. Enhanced mid-level flow will accompany this low, spreading eastward across the southern Plains. Low-level flow across the southern Plains will also increase ahead of this system, resulting in strengthening warm-air advection throughout the day. Surface easterlies are expected across the Gulf of Mexico, but a stationary boundary along the TX Coast will prevent inland penetration of any notable low-level moisture. Even so, moderate mid-level moisture and increasing large-scale lift ahead of the approaching upper low will result in a large area of precipitation. Cooling mid-level temperatures may help support modest buoyancy, with isolated thunderstorms expected within the larger precipitation shield. The probability of any severe thunderstorms is very low. ..Mosier.. 12/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are likely across a large portion of Texas on Saturday. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... A southern-stream upper low is forecast to begin the period over the AZ/NM/Mexico border intersection vicinity before progressing northeastward through the southern High Plains throughout the period. Enhanced mid-level flow will accompany this low, spreading eastward across the southern Plains. Low-level flow across the southern Plains will also increase ahead of this system, resulting in strengthening warm-air advection throughout the day. Surface easterlies are expected across the Gulf of Mexico, but a stationary boundary along the TX Coast will prevent inland penetration of any notable low-level moisture. Even so, moderate mid-level moisture and increasing large-scale lift ahead of the approaching upper low will result in a large area of precipitation. Cooling mid-level temperatures may help support modest buoyancy, with isolated thunderstorms expected within the larger precipitation shield. The probability of any severe thunderstorms is very low. ..Mosier.. 12/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are likely across a large portion of Texas on Saturday. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... A southern-stream upper low is forecast to begin the period over the AZ/NM/Mexico border intersection vicinity before progressing northeastward through the southern High Plains throughout the period. Enhanced mid-level flow will accompany this low, spreading eastward across the southern Plains. Low-level flow across the southern Plains will also increase ahead of this system, resulting in strengthening warm-air advection throughout the day. Surface easterlies are expected across the Gulf of Mexico, but a stationary boundary along the TX Coast will prevent inland penetration of any notable low-level moisture. Even so, moderate mid-level moisture and increasing large-scale lift ahead of the approaching upper low will result in a large area of precipitation. Cooling mid-level temperatures may help support modest buoyancy, with isolated thunderstorms expected within the larger precipitation shield. The probability of any severe thunderstorms is very low. ..Mosier.. 12/06/2024 Read more

With precipitation at an historic low over the last four months, the Cape Cod and Islands regions were categorized as being in a Level 1-Mild Drought. A Level 3-Critical Drought declaration remained in the Western, Connecticut River Valley, Southeast, Central and Northeast regions. Mass.gov (Boston), Dec 6, 2024 After extremely low precipitation over the past three months, most of Massachusetts entered Level 3 – Critical Drought on November 19. Only the Cape Cod and Islands Regions were in Level 0 – Normal condition. Over the past 30 days, less than an inch of rain has fallen, putting the deficit at 3 to 4.5 inches below average. Brooks and streambeds have gone dry, and groundwater levels were dropping rapidly in all regions. Two hundred cities and towns have temporarily restricted outdoor burning as fire activity has risen. Thirty-seven wildfires were actively burning in the state. Hundreds of blazes have sparked since Oct. 1 and burned more land than typically burns in an entire year. MassLive.com (Springfield, Mass.), Nov 19, 2024

The Dorena-Hickman Ferry closed on December 6 due to the low level of the Mississippi River. According to the Kentucky Transportation Cabinet, the Dorena-Hickman Ferry is the only direct route between Missouri and Kentucky because the two states are not directly connected by a road or bridge. KFVS12 (Cape Girardeau, Mo.), Dec 6, 2024

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated weak thunderstorms are possible from southeast New Mexico to central Texas today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The large-scale pattern will begin to change today, with the deep upper trough over the northeastern CONUS lifting into eastern CA through the period. This will result in warming aloft over much of the MS/OH Valleys, Midwest and Great Lakes. To the west, a mean ridge will remain over the Pacific Coast, with a slow-moving upper low over northern MX and southern AZ/NM. This feature will be embedded within a positive-tilt trough, with a weakening trend. At the surface, high pressure over the mid to lower MS Valley will move into the southeastern CONUS, with northeast surface winds maintaining a stable surface air mass. Another high will reside over the Great Basin. In advance of the low over AZ/NM/MX, southerly winds of 15-25 kt will develop over the southern Plains tonight, with modest levels of theta-e advection. Given cool temperatures aloft, this will be enough to support increasing rain and thunderstorm chances, as elevated buoyancy of a few hundred J/kg develops. Weak instability will not support any severe threat. ..Jewell/Moore.. 12/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated weak thunderstorms are possible from southeast New Mexico to central Texas today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The large-scale pattern will begin to change today, with the deep upper trough over the northeastern CONUS lifting into eastern CA through the period. This will result in warming aloft over much of the MS/OH Valleys, Midwest and Great Lakes. To the west, a mean ridge will remain over the Pacific Coast, with a slow-moving upper low over northern MX and southern AZ/NM. This feature will be embedded within a positive-tilt trough, with a weakening trend. At the surface, high pressure over the mid to lower MS Valley will move into the southeastern CONUS, with northeast surface winds maintaining a stable surface air mass. Another high will reside over the Great Basin. In advance of the low over AZ/NM/MX, southerly winds of 15-25 kt will develop over the southern Plains tonight, with modest levels of theta-e advection. Given cool temperatures aloft, this will be enough to support increasing rain and thunderstorm chances, as elevated buoyancy of a few hundred J/kg develops. Weak instability will not support any severe threat. ..Jewell/Moore.. 12/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated weak thunderstorms are possible from southeast New Mexico to central Texas today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The large-scale pattern will begin to change today, with the deep upper trough over the northeastern CONUS lifting into eastern CA through the period. This will result in warming aloft over much of the MS/OH Valleys, Midwest and Great Lakes. To the west, a mean ridge will remain over the Pacific Coast, with a slow-moving upper low over northern MX and southern AZ/NM. This feature will be embedded within a positive-tilt trough, with a weakening trend. At the surface, high pressure over the mid to lower MS Valley will move into the southeastern CONUS, with northeast surface winds maintaining a stable surface air mass. Another high will reside over the Great Basin. In advance of the low over AZ/NM/MX, southerly winds of 15-25 kt will develop over the southern Plains tonight, with modest levels of theta-e advection. Given cool temperatures aloft, this will be enough to support increasing rain and thunderstorm chances, as elevated buoyancy of a few hundred J/kg develops. Weak instability will not support any severe threat. ..Jewell/Moore.. 12/06/2024 Read more