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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. today or tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows low-amplitude, progressive flow regime across the Lower 48 states. In the low levels, a cool/stable airmass will influence much of the eastern U.S. via surface high pressure centered over Ontario and moving into New England late tonight. Conditions will be hostile to thunderstorm development for almost the entire CONUS, with the exception associated with low-topped convection and perhaps a stray lightning flash possible near the WA coastal vicinity. ..Smith/Bentley.. 02/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. today or tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows low-amplitude, progressive flow regime across the Lower 48 states. In the low levels, a cool/stable airmass will influence much of the eastern U.S. via surface high pressure centered over Ontario and moving into New England late tonight. Conditions will be hostile to thunderstorm development for almost the entire CONUS, with the exception associated with low-topped convection and perhaps a stray lightning flash possible near the WA coastal vicinity. ..Smith/Bentley.. 02/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. today or tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows low-amplitude, progressive flow regime across the Lower 48 states. In the low levels, a cool/stable airmass will influence much of the eastern U.S. via surface high pressure centered over Ontario and moving into New England late tonight. Conditions will be hostile to thunderstorm development for almost the entire CONUS, with the exception associated with low-topped convection and perhaps a stray lightning flash possible near the WA coastal vicinity. ..Smith/Bentley.. 02/01/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models continue to depict generally zonal flow across the U.S. through the medium-range period. By the start of the period, a prominent baroclinic zone at the leading edge of an Arctic airmass is progged to have become established in a roughly west-to-east manner from the Mid-Atlantic region west-southwestward into the southern Plains. Weak/subtle perturbations forecast to move across the U.S. within the background/fast westerly flow regime are expected to modulate the north-south position of this boundary, but with its average location remaining roughly unchanged through day 6 -- after which evolving model differences cast more substantial uncertainty into the forecast. At this time, it appears that mainly elevated convection -- and perhaps a limited potential for hail -- may evolve primarily north of the front, in the late day 4 to early day 6 time frame, from the central U.S. eastward into the Tennessee Valley/Mid South region. However, at this time, risk appears to limited/low to highlight with a 15% probability area. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models continue to depict generally zonal flow across the U.S. through the medium-range period. By the start of the period, a prominent baroclinic zone at the leading edge of an Arctic airmass is progged to have become established in a roughly west-to-east manner from the Mid-Atlantic region west-southwestward into the southern Plains. Weak/subtle perturbations forecast to move across the U.S. within the background/fast westerly flow regime are expected to modulate the north-south position of this boundary, but with its average location remaining roughly unchanged through day 6 -- after which evolving model differences cast more substantial uncertainty into the forecast. At this time, it appears that mainly elevated convection -- and perhaps a limited potential for hail -- may evolve primarily north of the front, in the late day 4 to early day 6 time frame, from the central U.S. eastward into the Tennessee Valley/Mid South region. However, at this time, risk appears to limited/low to highlight with a 15% probability area. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models continue to depict generally zonal flow across the U.S. through the medium-range period. By the start of the period, a prominent baroclinic zone at the leading edge of an Arctic airmass is progged to have become established in a roughly west-to-east manner from the Mid-Atlantic region west-southwestward into the southern Plains. Weak/subtle perturbations forecast to move across the U.S. within the background/fast westerly flow regime are expected to modulate the north-south position of this boundary, but with its average location remaining roughly unchanged through day 6 -- after which evolving model differences cast more substantial uncertainty into the forecast. At this time, it appears that mainly elevated convection -- and perhaps a limited potential for hail -- may evolve primarily north of the front, in the late day 4 to early day 6 time frame, from the central U.S. eastward into the Tennessee Valley/Mid South region. However, at this time, risk appears to limited/low to highlight with a 15% probability area. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models continue to depict generally zonal flow across the U.S. through the medium-range period. By the start of the period, a prominent baroclinic zone at the leading edge of an Arctic airmass is progged to have become established in a roughly west-to-east manner from the Mid-Atlantic region west-southwestward into the southern Plains. Weak/subtle perturbations forecast to move across the U.S. within the background/fast westerly flow regime are expected to modulate the north-south position of this boundary, but with its average location remaining roughly unchanged through day 6 -- after which evolving model differences cast more substantial uncertainty into the forecast. At this time, it appears that mainly elevated convection -- and perhaps a limited potential for hail -- may evolve primarily north of the front, in the late day 4 to early day 6 time frame, from the central U.S. eastward into the Tennessee Valley/Mid South region. However, at this time, risk appears to limited/low to highlight with a 15% probability area. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models continue to depict generally zonal flow across the U.S. through the medium-range period. By the start of the period, a prominent baroclinic zone at the leading edge of an Arctic airmass is progged to have become established in a roughly west-to-east manner from the Mid-Atlantic region west-southwestward into the southern Plains. Weak/subtle perturbations forecast to move across the U.S. within the background/fast westerly flow regime are expected to modulate the north-south position of this boundary, but with its average location remaining roughly unchanged through day 6 -- after which evolving model differences cast more substantial uncertainty into the forecast. At this time, it appears that mainly elevated convection -- and perhaps a limited potential for hail -- may evolve primarily north of the front, in the late day 4 to early day 6 time frame, from the central U.S. eastward into the Tennessee Valley/Mid South region. However, at this time, risk appears to limited/low to highlight with a 15% probability area. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Monday. ...Discussion... Low-amplitude flow aloft is expected to prevail across the U.S. Monday, with the zonal regime trending weakly toward a western trough/central ridge/eastern trough configuration through the period. At the surface, a weak frontal wave along the slowly sagging baroclinic zone should shift out of the Plains across the Midwest through the day, and then across New England overnight. In the wake of this wave, the surface front will continue shifting southeastward/southward across the central and eastern states. By late in the period, the front should stretch from coastal New England southwestward to the Mid-Atlantic region, and then west-southwestward across the Tennessee and Lower Mississippi Valleys into Texas. While very weak low-level theta-e advection is expected ahead of the southward-moving front, moisture return should be quite insufficient to support appreciable destabilization. Meanwhile, with Arctic air spreading southward behind the front, a thermodynamic environment insufficient to support deep moist convection is forecast to persist across the U.S. through the period. ..Goss.. 02/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Monday. ...Discussion... Low-amplitude flow aloft is expected to prevail across the U.S. Monday, with the zonal regime trending weakly toward a western trough/central ridge/eastern trough configuration through the period. At the surface, a weak frontal wave along the slowly sagging baroclinic zone should shift out of the Plains across the Midwest through the day, and then across New England overnight. In the wake of this wave, the surface front will continue shifting southeastward/southward across the central and eastern states. By late in the period, the front should stretch from coastal New England southwestward to the Mid-Atlantic region, and then west-southwestward across the Tennessee and Lower Mississippi Valleys into Texas. While very weak low-level theta-e advection is expected ahead of the southward-moving front, moisture return should be quite insufficient to support appreciable destabilization. Meanwhile, with Arctic air spreading southward behind the front, a thermodynamic environment insufficient to support deep moist convection is forecast to persist across the U.S. through the period. ..Goss.. 02/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Monday. ...Discussion... Low-amplitude flow aloft is expected to prevail across the U.S. Monday, with the zonal regime trending weakly toward a western trough/central ridge/eastern trough configuration through the period. At the surface, a weak frontal wave along the slowly sagging baroclinic zone should shift out of the Plains across the Midwest through the day, and then across New England overnight. In the wake of this wave, the surface front will continue shifting southeastward/southward across the central and eastern states. By late in the period, the front should stretch from coastal New England southwestward to the Mid-Atlantic region, and then west-southwestward across the Tennessee and Lower Mississippi Valleys into Texas. While very weak low-level theta-e advection is expected ahead of the southward-moving front, moisture return should be quite insufficient to support appreciable destabilization. Meanwhile, with Arctic air spreading southward behind the front, a thermodynamic environment insufficient to support deep moist convection is forecast to persist across the U.S. through the period. ..Goss.. 02/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Monday. ...Discussion... Low-amplitude flow aloft is expected to prevail across the U.S. Monday, with the zonal regime trending weakly toward a western trough/central ridge/eastern trough configuration through the period. At the surface, a weak frontal wave along the slowly sagging baroclinic zone should shift out of the Plains across the Midwest through the day, and then across New England overnight. In the wake of this wave, the surface front will continue shifting southeastward/southward across the central and eastern states. By late in the period, the front should stretch from coastal New England southwestward to the Mid-Atlantic region, and then west-southwestward across the Tennessee and Lower Mississippi Valleys into Texas. While very weak low-level theta-e advection is expected ahead of the southward-moving front, moisture return should be quite insufficient to support appreciable destabilization. Meanwhile, with Arctic air spreading southward behind the front, a thermodynamic environment insufficient to support deep moist convection is forecast to persist across the U.S. through the period. ..Goss.. 02/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Monday. ...Discussion... Low-amplitude flow aloft is expected to prevail across the U.S. Monday, with the zonal regime trending weakly toward a western trough/central ridge/eastern trough configuration through the period. At the surface, a weak frontal wave along the slowly sagging baroclinic zone should shift out of the Plains across the Midwest through the day, and then across New England overnight. In the wake of this wave, the surface front will continue shifting southeastward/southward across the central and eastern states. By late in the period, the front should stretch from coastal New England southwestward to the Mid-Atlantic region, and then west-southwestward across the Tennessee and Lower Mississippi Valleys into Texas. While very weak low-level theta-e advection is expected ahead of the southward-moving front, moisture return should be quite insufficient to support appreciable destabilization. Meanwhile, with Arctic air spreading southward behind the front, a thermodynamic environment insufficient to support deep moist convection is forecast to persist across the U.S. through the period. ..Goss.. 02/01/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Flow aloft will be primarily zonal over the central US through the weekend. In response, lee troughing will persist with west/southwesterly winds over much of the southern Plains. Some fire-weather risk is possible as area fuels dry with warm temperatures and low humidity. However, the overlap of strong winds and low humidity is not expected to support widespread critical concerns. ...Southern High Plains... At least modestly dry and windy conditions should continue into D2/Sunday as the lee low/trough remains over the High Plains. Continued warm and dry conditions will support further drying of area fuels. While zonal flow aloft is expected to be fairly strong, it is displaced to the north. This should keep surface wind speeds modest for much of that period across areas of the drier/more receptive fuels. Localized elevated fire-weather conditions are still possible from southeastern NM into West TX. However, conditions are not expected to be widespread enough to support an Elevated area. ..Lyons.. 02/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Flow aloft will be primarily zonal over the central US through the weekend. In response, lee troughing will persist with west/southwesterly winds over much of the southern Plains. Some fire-weather risk is possible as area fuels dry with warm temperatures and low humidity. However, the overlap of strong winds and low humidity is not expected to support widespread critical concerns. ...Southern High Plains... At least modestly dry and windy conditions should continue into D2/Sunday as the lee low/trough remains over the High Plains. Continued warm and dry conditions will support further drying of area fuels. While zonal flow aloft is expected to be fairly strong, it is displaced to the north. This should keep surface wind speeds modest for much of that period across areas of the drier/more receptive fuels. Localized elevated fire-weather conditions are still possible from southeastern NM into West TX. However, conditions are not expected to be widespread enough to support an Elevated area. ..Lyons.. 02/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Flow aloft will be primarily zonal over the central US through the weekend. In response, lee troughing will persist with west/southwesterly winds over much of the southern Plains. Some fire-weather risk is possible as area fuels dry with warm temperatures and low humidity. However, the overlap of strong winds and low humidity is not expected to support widespread critical concerns. ...Southern High Plains... At least modestly dry and windy conditions should continue into D2/Sunday as the lee low/trough remains over the High Plains. Continued warm and dry conditions will support further drying of area fuels. While zonal flow aloft is expected to be fairly strong, it is displaced to the north. This should keep surface wind speeds modest for much of that period across areas of the drier/more receptive fuels. Localized elevated fire-weather conditions are still possible from southeastern NM into West TX. However, conditions are not expected to be widespread enough to support an Elevated area. ..Lyons.. 02/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Flow aloft will be primarily zonal over the central US through the weekend. In response, lee troughing will persist with west/southwesterly winds over much of the southern Plains. Some fire-weather risk is possible as area fuels dry with warm temperatures and low humidity. However, the overlap of strong winds and low humidity is not expected to support widespread critical concerns. ...Southern High Plains... At least modestly dry and windy conditions should continue into D2/Sunday as the lee low/trough remains over the High Plains. Continued warm and dry conditions will support further drying of area fuels. While zonal flow aloft is expected to be fairly strong, it is displaced to the north. This should keep surface wind speeds modest for much of that period across areas of the drier/more receptive fuels. Localized elevated fire-weather conditions are still possible from southeastern NM into West TX. However, conditions are not expected to be widespread enough to support an Elevated area. ..Lyons.. 02/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Flow aloft will be primarily zonal over the central US through the weekend. In response, lee troughing will persist with west/southwesterly winds over much of the southern Plains. Some fire-weather risk is possible as area fuels dry with warm temperatures and low humidity. However, the overlap of strong winds and low humidity is not expected to support widespread critical concerns. ...Southern High Plains... At least modestly dry and windy conditions should continue into D2/Sunday as the lee low/trough remains over the High Plains. Continued warm and dry conditions will support further drying of area fuels. While zonal flow aloft is expected to be fairly strong, it is displaced to the north. This should keep surface wind speeds modest for much of that period across areas of the drier/more receptive fuels. Localized elevated fire-weather conditions are still possible from southeastern NM into West TX. However, conditions are not expected to be widespread enough to support an Elevated area. ..Lyons.. 02/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... Increasing zonal mid-level flow will become established over the CONUS in the wake of the trough departing the East Coast today. A lee low will strengthen surface winds over parts of the Plains where warm temperatures and low humidity are expected. This could allow for some fire-weather risk over the southern High Plains and NM, though fuels remain a complicating factor. ...Southern Plains and east-central NM... As mostly zonal flow aloft pass over the central Rockies, a lee low is expected to bolster south/southwesterly flow (15-25 mph) over parts of the southern High Plains. Diurnal heating, intermixed with some mid and high-level cloud cover, should favor above normal temperatures. The warm temperatures and westerly surface flow should support gusty winds and RH below 20% across much of the southern Plains. Meteorologically elevated (and localized near critical) conditions are possible across portions of the NM highlands, eastern TX Panhandles and western OK for several hours this afternoon. The primary uncertainty precluding larger and higher categorical areas remains the availability and receptiveness of area fuels. Drying has been noted over the last several days, especially within areas devoid of heavier precipitation (TX Panhandle and western OK). ERCs are expected to gradually increase above normal, but confidence in widespread critical fuels is currently low. Still, the expected drying of fuels could support a risk of increased initial attack within short-hour fuels. Thus, an Elevated area has been added where the best overlap of receptive fuels and sustained meteorological conditions are expected across TX/OK and NM. ..Lyons.. 02/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... Increasing zonal mid-level flow will become established over the CONUS in the wake of the trough departing the East Coast today. A lee low will strengthen surface winds over parts of the Plains where warm temperatures and low humidity are expected. This could allow for some fire-weather risk over the southern High Plains and NM, though fuels remain a complicating factor. ...Southern Plains and east-central NM... As mostly zonal flow aloft pass over the central Rockies, a lee low is expected to bolster south/southwesterly flow (15-25 mph) over parts of the southern High Plains. Diurnal heating, intermixed with some mid and high-level cloud cover, should favor above normal temperatures. The warm temperatures and westerly surface flow should support gusty winds and RH below 20% across much of the southern Plains. Meteorologically elevated (and localized near critical) conditions are possible across portions of the NM highlands, eastern TX Panhandles and western OK for several hours this afternoon. The primary uncertainty precluding larger and higher categorical areas remains the availability and receptiveness of area fuels. Drying has been noted over the last several days, especially within areas devoid of heavier precipitation (TX Panhandle and western OK). ERCs are expected to gradually increase above normal, but confidence in widespread critical fuels is currently low. Still, the expected drying of fuels could support a risk of increased initial attack within short-hour fuels. Thus, an Elevated area has been added where the best overlap of receptive fuels and sustained meteorological conditions are expected across TX/OK and NM. ..Lyons.. 02/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more