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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible today over the Olympic Peninsula of northwest Washington. ...20Z Update... No changes were made to the Day 1 Outlook. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 02/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025/ ...WA... Dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms over most of the continental US today. The one exception will be in northwest WA, where strong/deep onshore flow and cold temperatures aloft (< -30C) will pose a risk of a few lightning flashes over the Olympic Peninsula. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible today over the Olympic Peninsula of northwest Washington. ...20Z Update... No changes were made to the Day 1 Outlook. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 02/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025/ ...WA... Dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms over most of the continental US today. The one exception will be in northwest WA, where strong/deep onshore flow and cold temperatures aloft (< -30C) will pose a risk of a few lightning flashes over the Olympic Peninsula. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible today over the Olympic Peninsula of northwest Washington. ...20Z Update... No changes were made to the Day 1 Outlook. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 02/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025/ ...WA... Dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms over most of the continental US today. The one exception will be in northwest WA, where strong/deep onshore flow and cold temperatures aloft (< -30C) will pose a risk of a few lightning flashes over the Olympic Peninsula. Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Feb 1 19:52:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 PM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Monday. ...Synopsis... A mostly zonal flow regime will exist during the day on Monday, with some gradual height falls occurring late across the West and over the Northeast. A large area of high pressure over the Southeast will prevent appreciable destabilization over land, although limited/shallow moisture return will occur over TX with southerly surface winds. Elsewhere, a midlevel moist plume will result in precipitation across northern and central CA, but poor lapse rates will likely limit even elevated convective potential. ..Jewell.. 02/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 PM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Monday. ...Synopsis... A mostly zonal flow regime will exist during the day on Monday, with some gradual height falls occurring late across the West and over the Northeast. A large area of high pressure over the Southeast will prevent appreciable destabilization over land, although limited/shallow moisture return will occur over TX with southerly surface winds. Elsewhere, a midlevel moist plume will result in precipitation across northern and central CA, but poor lapse rates will likely limit even elevated convective potential. ..Jewell.. 02/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 PM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Monday. ...Synopsis... A mostly zonal flow regime will exist during the day on Monday, with some gradual height falls occurring late across the West and over the Northeast. A large area of high pressure over the Southeast will prevent appreciable destabilization over land, although limited/shallow moisture return will occur over TX with southerly surface winds. Elsewhere, a midlevel moist plume will result in precipitation across northern and central CA, but poor lapse rates will likely limit even elevated convective potential. ..Jewell.. 02/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 PM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Monday. ...Synopsis... A mostly zonal flow regime will exist during the day on Monday, with some gradual height falls occurring late across the West and over the Northeast. A large area of high pressure over the Southeast will prevent appreciable destabilization over land, although limited/shallow moisture return will occur over TX with southerly surface winds. Elsewhere, a midlevel moist plume will result in precipitation across northern and central CA, but poor lapse rates will likely limit even elevated convective potential. ..Jewell.. 02/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 PM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Monday. ...Synopsis... A mostly zonal flow regime will exist during the day on Monday, with some gradual height falls occurring late across the West and over the Northeast. A large area of high pressure over the Southeast will prevent appreciable destabilization over land, although limited/shallow moisture return will occur over TX with southerly surface winds. Elsewhere, a midlevel moist plume will result in precipitation across northern and central CA, but poor lapse rates will likely limit even elevated convective potential. ..Jewell.. 02/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 PM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Monday. ...Synopsis... A mostly zonal flow regime will exist during the day on Monday, with some gradual height falls occurring late across the West and over the Northeast. A large area of high pressure over the Southeast will prevent appreciable destabilization over land, although limited/shallow moisture return will occur over TX with southerly surface winds. Elsewhere, a midlevel moist plume will result in precipitation across northern and central CA, but poor lapse rates will likely limit even elevated convective potential. ..Jewell.. 02/01/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 PM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 02/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... Flow aloft will be primarily zonal over the central US through the weekend. In response, lee troughing will persist with west/southwesterly winds over much of the southern Plains. Some fire-weather risk is possible as area fuels dry with warm temperatures and low humidity. However, the overlap of strong winds and low humidity is not expected to support widespread critical concerns. ...Southern High Plains... At least modestly dry and windy conditions should continue into D2/Sunday as the lee low/trough remains over the High Plains. Continued warm and dry conditions will support further drying of area fuels. While zonal flow aloft is expected to be fairly strong, it is displaced to the north. This should keep surface wind speeds modest for much of that period across areas of the drier/more receptive fuels. Localized elevated fire-weather conditions are still possible from southeastern NM into West TX. However, conditions are not expected to be widespread enough to support an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 PM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 02/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... Flow aloft will be primarily zonal over the central US through the weekend. In response, lee troughing will persist with west/southwesterly winds over much of the southern Plains. Some fire-weather risk is possible as area fuels dry with warm temperatures and low humidity. However, the overlap of strong winds and low humidity is not expected to support widespread critical concerns. ...Southern High Plains... At least modestly dry and windy conditions should continue into D2/Sunday as the lee low/trough remains over the High Plains. Continued warm and dry conditions will support further drying of area fuels. While zonal flow aloft is expected to be fairly strong, it is displaced to the north. This should keep surface wind speeds modest for much of that period across areas of the drier/more receptive fuels. Localized elevated fire-weather conditions are still possible from southeastern NM into West TX. However, conditions are not expected to be widespread enough to support an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 PM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 02/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... Flow aloft will be primarily zonal over the central US through the weekend. In response, lee troughing will persist with west/southwesterly winds over much of the southern Plains. Some fire-weather risk is possible as area fuels dry with warm temperatures and low humidity. However, the overlap of strong winds and low humidity is not expected to support widespread critical concerns. ...Southern High Plains... At least modestly dry and windy conditions should continue into D2/Sunday as the lee low/trough remains over the High Plains. Continued warm and dry conditions will support further drying of area fuels. While zonal flow aloft is expected to be fairly strong, it is displaced to the north. This should keep surface wind speeds modest for much of that period across areas of the drier/more receptive fuels. Localized elevated fire-weather conditions are still possible from southeastern NM into West TX. However, conditions are not expected to be widespread enough to support an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 PM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 02/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... Flow aloft will be primarily zonal over the central US through the weekend. In response, lee troughing will persist with west/southwesterly winds over much of the southern Plains. Some fire-weather risk is possible as area fuels dry with warm temperatures and low humidity. However, the overlap of strong winds and low humidity is not expected to support widespread critical concerns. ...Southern High Plains... At least modestly dry and windy conditions should continue into D2/Sunday as the lee low/trough remains over the High Plains. Continued warm and dry conditions will support further drying of area fuels. While zonal flow aloft is expected to be fairly strong, it is displaced to the north. This should keep surface wind speeds modest for much of that period across areas of the drier/more receptive fuels. Localized elevated fire-weather conditions are still possible from southeastern NM into West TX. However, conditions are not expected to be widespread enough to support an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 PM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 02/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... Flow aloft will be primarily zonal over the central US through the weekend. In response, lee troughing will persist with west/southwesterly winds over much of the southern Plains. Some fire-weather risk is possible as area fuels dry with warm temperatures and low humidity. However, the overlap of strong winds and low humidity is not expected to support widespread critical concerns. ...Southern High Plains... At least modestly dry and windy conditions should continue into D2/Sunday as the lee low/trough remains over the High Plains. Continued warm and dry conditions will support further drying of area fuels. While zonal flow aloft is expected to be fairly strong, it is displaced to the north. This should keep surface wind speeds modest for much of that period across areas of the drier/more receptive fuels. Localized elevated fire-weather conditions are still possible from southeastern NM into West TX. However, conditions are not expected to be widespread enough to support an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 PM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 02/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... Flow aloft will be primarily zonal over the central US through the weekend. In response, lee troughing will persist with west/southwesterly winds over much of the southern Plains. Some fire-weather risk is possible as area fuels dry with warm temperatures and low humidity. However, the overlap of strong winds and low humidity is not expected to support widespread critical concerns. ...Southern High Plains... At least modestly dry and windy conditions should continue into D2/Sunday as the lee low/trough remains over the High Plains. Continued warm and dry conditions will support further drying of area fuels. While zonal flow aloft is expected to be fairly strong, it is displaced to the north. This should keep surface wind speeds modest for much of that period across areas of the drier/more receptive fuels. Localized elevated fire-weather conditions are still possible from southeastern NM into West TX. However, conditions are not expected to be widespread enough to support an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm activity is forecast to be minimal across the U.S. on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A broad belt of generally westerly flow aloft will exist across the northern half of the CONUS on Sunday, with a leading wave moving across the OH Valley and Great Lakes. A strong midlevel temperature gradient will remain across WA, MT, and into the Dakotas and MN, as the base of a low-amplitude wave skirts those areas. At the surface, high pressure will exist over the East, and across the southern Plains and into the Southwest. Gradual low-level moistening may occur late toward TX with modest southerly winds developing beneath the midlevel westerlies. However, any appreciable instability will remain offshore. Otherwise, little to no instability is forecast to support thunderstorms across the CONUS. ..Jewell.. 02/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm activity is forecast to be minimal across the U.S. on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A broad belt of generally westerly flow aloft will exist across the northern half of the CONUS on Sunday, with a leading wave moving across the OH Valley and Great Lakes. A strong midlevel temperature gradient will remain across WA, MT, and into the Dakotas and MN, as the base of a low-amplitude wave skirts those areas. At the surface, high pressure will exist over the East, and across the southern Plains and into the Southwest. Gradual low-level moistening may occur late toward TX with modest southerly winds developing beneath the midlevel westerlies. However, any appreciable instability will remain offshore. Otherwise, little to no instability is forecast to support thunderstorms across the CONUS. ..Jewell.. 02/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm activity is forecast to be minimal across the U.S. on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A broad belt of generally westerly flow aloft will exist across the northern half of the CONUS on Sunday, with a leading wave moving across the OH Valley and Great Lakes. A strong midlevel temperature gradient will remain across WA, MT, and into the Dakotas and MN, as the base of a low-amplitude wave skirts those areas. At the surface, high pressure will exist over the East, and across the southern Plains and into the Southwest. Gradual low-level moistening may occur late toward TX with modest southerly winds developing beneath the midlevel westerlies. However, any appreciable instability will remain offshore. Otherwise, little to no instability is forecast to support thunderstorms across the CONUS. ..Jewell.. 02/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm activity is forecast to be minimal across the U.S. on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A broad belt of generally westerly flow aloft will exist across the northern half of the CONUS on Sunday, with a leading wave moving across the OH Valley and Great Lakes. A strong midlevel temperature gradient will remain across WA, MT, and into the Dakotas and MN, as the base of a low-amplitude wave skirts those areas. At the surface, high pressure will exist over the East, and across the southern Plains and into the Southwest. Gradual low-level moistening may occur late toward TX with modest southerly winds developing beneath the midlevel westerlies. However, any appreciable instability will remain offshore. Otherwise, little to no instability is forecast to support thunderstorms across the CONUS. ..Jewell.. 02/01/2025 Read more