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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential across the United States appears low on Saturday. ...Synopsis... Low-amplitude, quasi-zonal upper level flow will emerge across the CONUS as a shortwave trough moves offshore the Atlantic coast early Saturday. At the surface, low pressure centered over southern portions of the Canadian Prairies will shift east, while a trailing cold front moves across the northern Rockies/High Plains region. A weak frontal zone across the FL Peninsula will dissipate, while strong surface high pressure persists across the eastern U.S. northern low-level flow across the western Atlantic and Gulf will result in a dry and stable airmass across much of the U.S. east of the Rockies. Precipitation is more likely across portions of the Pacific Northwest as moist onshore deep-layer flow streams over the region. Cold midlevels will result in steep lapse rates and meager elevated instability. A lightning flash or two is possible along the WA coast with low-topped convection, but thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain less than 10 percent and more likely offshore. ..Leitman.. 01/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential across the United States appears low on Saturday. ...Synopsis... Low-amplitude, quasi-zonal upper level flow will emerge across the CONUS as a shortwave trough moves offshore the Atlantic coast early Saturday. At the surface, low pressure centered over southern portions of the Canadian Prairies will shift east, while a trailing cold front moves across the northern Rockies/High Plains region. A weak frontal zone across the FL Peninsula will dissipate, while strong surface high pressure persists across the eastern U.S. northern low-level flow across the western Atlantic and Gulf will result in a dry and stable airmass across much of the U.S. east of the Rockies. Precipitation is more likely across portions of the Pacific Northwest as moist onshore deep-layer flow streams over the region. Cold midlevels will result in steep lapse rates and meager elevated instability. A lightning flash or two is possible along the WA coast with low-topped convection, but thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain less than 10 percent and more likely offshore. ..Leitman.. 01/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential across the United States appears low on Saturday. ...Synopsis... Low-amplitude, quasi-zonal upper level flow will emerge across the CONUS as a shortwave trough moves offshore the Atlantic coast early Saturday. At the surface, low pressure centered over southern portions of the Canadian Prairies will shift east, while a trailing cold front moves across the northern Rockies/High Plains region. A weak frontal zone across the FL Peninsula will dissipate, while strong surface high pressure persists across the eastern U.S. northern low-level flow across the western Atlantic and Gulf will result in a dry and stable airmass across much of the U.S. east of the Rockies. Precipitation is more likely across portions of the Pacific Northwest as moist onshore deep-layer flow streams over the region. Cold midlevels will result in steep lapse rates and meager elevated instability. A lightning flash or two is possible along the WA coast with low-topped convection, but thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain less than 10 percent and more likely offshore. ..Leitman.. 01/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential across the United States appears low on Saturday. ...Synopsis... Low-amplitude, quasi-zonal upper level flow will emerge across the CONUS as a shortwave trough moves offshore the Atlantic coast early Saturday. At the surface, low pressure centered over southern portions of the Canadian Prairies will shift east, while a trailing cold front moves across the northern Rockies/High Plains region. A weak frontal zone across the FL Peninsula will dissipate, while strong surface high pressure persists across the eastern U.S. northern low-level flow across the western Atlantic and Gulf will result in a dry and stable airmass across much of the U.S. east of the Rockies. Precipitation is more likely across portions of the Pacific Northwest as moist onshore deep-layer flow streams over the region. Cold midlevels will result in steep lapse rates and meager elevated instability. A lightning flash or two is possible along the WA coast with low-topped convection, but thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain less than 10 percent and more likely offshore. ..Leitman.. 01/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential across the United States appears low on Saturday. ...Synopsis... Low-amplitude, quasi-zonal upper level flow will emerge across the CONUS as a shortwave trough moves offshore the Atlantic coast early Saturday. At the surface, low pressure centered over southern portions of the Canadian Prairies will shift east, while a trailing cold front moves across the northern Rockies/High Plains region. A weak frontal zone across the FL Peninsula will dissipate, while strong surface high pressure persists across the eastern U.S. northern low-level flow across the western Atlantic and Gulf will result in a dry and stable airmass across much of the U.S. east of the Rockies. Precipitation is more likely across portions of the Pacific Northwest as moist onshore deep-layer flow streams over the region. Cold midlevels will result in steep lapse rates and meager elevated instability. A lightning flash or two is possible along the WA coast with low-topped convection, but thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain less than 10 percent and more likely offshore. ..Leitman.. 01/31/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Downslope winds in the lee of the Laramie Mountains may produce locally elevated conditions, but the overall environment (including fuels) does not suggest significant fire weather concerns. ..Wendt.. 01/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather conditions are unlikely over much of the CONUS today and tonight. Broad troughing over the eastern third of the US will support the potential for widespread wetting rainfall. While to the west, low-amplitude ridging is expected over the Rockies and Plains. Cooler temperatures and weak winds are expected beneath the ridge. With little overlap of strong winds, low humidity and receptive fuels, fire-weather potential is limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Downslope winds in the lee of the Laramie Mountains may produce locally elevated conditions, but the overall environment (including fuels) does not suggest significant fire weather concerns. ..Wendt.. 01/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather conditions are unlikely over much of the CONUS today and tonight. Broad troughing over the eastern third of the US will support the potential for widespread wetting rainfall. While to the west, low-amplitude ridging is expected over the Rockies and Plains. Cooler temperatures and weak winds are expected beneath the ridge. With little overlap of strong winds, low humidity and receptive fuels, fire-weather potential is limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Downslope winds in the lee of the Laramie Mountains may produce locally elevated conditions, but the overall environment (including fuels) does not suggest significant fire weather concerns. ..Wendt.. 01/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather conditions are unlikely over much of the CONUS today and tonight. Broad troughing over the eastern third of the US will support the potential for widespread wetting rainfall. While to the west, low-amplitude ridging is expected over the Rockies and Plains. Cooler temperatures and weak winds are expected beneath the ridge. With little overlap of strong winds, low humidity and receptive fuels, fire-weather potential is limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Downslope winds in the lee of the Laramie Mountains may produce locally elevated conditions, but the overall environment (including fuels) does not suggest significant fire weather concerns. ..Wendt.. 01/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather conditions are unlikely over much of the CONUS today and tonight. Broad troughing over the eastern third of the US will support the potential for widespread wetting rainfall. While to the west, low-amplitude ridging is expected over the Rockies and Plains. Cooler temperatures and weak winds are expected beneath the ridge. With little overlap of strong winds, low humidity and receptive fuels, fire-weather potential is limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Downslope winds in the lee of the Laramie Mountains may produce locally elevated conditions, but the overall environment (including fuels) does not suggest significant fire weather concerns. ..Wendt.. 01/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather conditions are unlikely over much of the CONUS today and tonight. Broad troughing over the eastern third of the US will support the potential for widespread wetting rainfall. While to the west, low-amplitude ridging is expected over the Rockies and Plains. Cooler temperatures and weak winds are expected beneath the ridge. With little overlap of strong winds, low humidity and receptive fuels, fire-weather potential is limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Downslope winds in the lee of the Laramie Mountains may produce locally elevated conditions, but the overall environment (including fuels) does not suggest significant fire weather concerns. ..Wendt.. 01/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather conditions are unlikely over much of the CONUS today and tonight. Broad troughing over the eastern third of the US will support the potential for widespread wetting rainfall. While to the west, low-amplitude ridging is expected over the Rockies and Plains. Cooler temperatures and weak winds are expected beneath the ridge. With little overlap of strong winds, low humidity and receptive fuels, fire-weather potential is limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Downslope winds in the lee of the Laramie Mountains may produce locally elevated conditions, but the overall environment (including fuels) does not suggest significant fire weather concerns. ..Wendt.. 01/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather conditions are unlikely over much of the CONUS today and tonight. Broad troughing over the eastern third of the US will support the potential for widespread wetting rainfall. While to the west, low-amplitude ridging is expected over the Rockies and Plains. Cooler temperatures and weak winds are expected beneath the ridge. With little overlap of strong winds, low humidity and receptive fuels, fire-weather potential is limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1006 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND VICINITY.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated damaging gusts are possible this afternoon across parts of the central Florida Panhandle and vicinity. ...Southeast AL/Southwest GA/FL Panhandle... A large, positively tilted upper trough/low is over the Mid MS Valley today, with an associated surface cold front sweeping eastward across AL/GA/FL. Southerly low-level winds ahead of the front have weakened considerably from yesterday, limiting the northward transport of Gulf moisture. Dewpoints in the 50s and lower 60s are common ahead of the front, but this only results in MUCAPE values less than 250 J/kg. One small area of slightly greater instability may occur later this afternoon over the central FL Panhandle and vicinity where visible satellite imagery shows broken clouds and more heating potential. This area remains in the MRGL risk. Later tonight, the cold front will sweep eastward across GA and the Carolinas. A combination of weak instability and limited forcing in the warm sector suggests any deep convection that can form will be along, and more likely behind, the front. ..Hart/Gleason.. 01/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1006 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND VICINITY.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated damaging gusts are possible this afternoon across parts of the central Florida Panhandle and vicinity. ...Southeast AL/Southwest GA/FL Panhandle... A large, positively tilted upper trough/low is over the Mid MS Valley today, with an associated surface cold front sweeping eastward across AL/GA/FL. Southerly low-level winds ahead of the front have weakened considerably from yesterday, limiting the northward transport of Gulf moisture. Dewpoints in the 50s and lower 60s are common ahead of the front, but this only results in MUCAPE values less than 250 J/kg. One small area of slightly greater instability may occur later this afternoon over the central FL Panhandle and vicinity where visible satellite imagery shows broken clouds and more heating potential. This area remains in the MRGL risk. Later tonight, the cold front will sweep eastward across GA and the Carolinas. A combination of weak instability and limited forcing in the warm sector suggests any deep convection that can form will be along, and more likely behind, the front. ..Hart/Gleason.. 01/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1006 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND VICINITY.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated damaging gusts are possible this afternoon across parts of the central Florida Panhandle and vicinity. ...Southeast AL/Southwest GA/FL Panhandle... A large, positively tilted upper trough/low is over the Mid MS Valley today, with an associated surface cold front sweeping eastward across AL/GA/FL. Southerly low-level winds ahead of the front have weakened considerably from yesterday, limiting the northward transport of Gulf moisture. Dewpoints in the 50s and lower 60s are common ahead of the front, but this only results in MUCAPE values less than 250 J/kg. One small area of slightly greater instability may occur later this afternoon over the central FL Panhandle and vicinity where visible satellite imagery shows broken clouds and more heating potential. This area remains in the MRGL risk. Later tonight, the cold front will sweep eastward across GA and the Carolinas. A combination of weak instability and limited forcing in the warm sector suggests any deep convection that can form will be along, and more likely behind, the front. ..Hart/Gleason.. 01/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1006 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND VICINITY.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated damaging gusts are possible this afternoon across parts of the central Florida Panhandle and vicinity. ...Southeast AL/Southwest GA/FL Panhandle... A large, positively tilted upper trough/low is over the Mid MS Valley today, with an associated surface cold front sweeping eastward across AL/GA/FL. Southerly low-level winds ahead of the front have weakened considerably from yesterday, limiting the northward transport of Gulf moisture. Dewpoints in the 50s and lower 60s are common ahead of the front, but this only results in MUCAPE values less than 250 J/kg. One small area of slightly greater instability may occur later this afternoon over the central FL Panhandle and vicinity where visible satellite imagery shows broken clouds and more heating potential. This area remains in the MRGL risk. Later tonight, the cold front will sweep eastward across GA and the Carolinas. A combination of weak instability and limited forcing in the warm sector suggests any deep convection that can form will be along, and more likely behind, the front. ..Hart/Gleason.. 01/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1006 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND VICINITY.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated damaging gusts are possible this afternoon across parts of the central Florida Panhandle and vicinity. ...Southeast AL/Southwest GA/FL Panhandle... A large, positively tilted upper trough/low is over the Mid MS Valley today, with an associated surface cold front sweeping eastward across AL/GA/FL. Southerly low-level winds ahead of the front have weakened considerably from yesterday, limiting the northward transport of Gulf moisture. Dewpoints in the 50s and lower 60s are common ahead of the front, but this only results in MUCAPE values less than 250 J/kg. One small area of slightly greater instability may occur later this afternoon over the central FL Panhandle and vicinity where visible satellite imagery shows broken clouds and more heating potential. This area remains in the MRGL risk. Later tonight, the cold front will sweep eastward across GA and the Carolinas. A combination of weak instability and limited forcing in the warm sector suggests any deep convection that can form will be along, and more likely behind, the front. ..Hart/Gleason.. 01/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1006 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND VICINITY.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated damaging gusts are possible this afternoon across parts of the central Florida Panhandle and vicinity. ...Southeast AL/Southwest GA/FL Panhandle... A large, positively tilted upper trough/low is over the Mid MS Valley today, with an associated surface cold front sweeping eastward across AL/GA/FL. Southerly low-level winds ahead of the front have weakened considerably from yesterday, limiting the northward transport of Gulf moisture. Dewpoints in the 50s and lower 60s are common ahead of the front, but this only results in MUCAPE values less than 250 J/kg. One small area of slightly greater instability may occur later this afternoon over the central FL Panhandle and vicinity where visible satellite imagery shows broken clouds and more heating potential. This area remains in the MRGL risk. Later tonight, the cold front will sweep eastward across GA and the Carolinas. A combination of weak instability and limited forcing in the warm sector suggests any deep convection that can form will be along, and more likely behind, the front. ..Hart/Gleason.. 01/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1006 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND VICINITY.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated damaging gusts are possible this afternoon across parts of the central Florida Panhandle and vicinity. ...Southeast AL/Southwest GA/FL Panhandle... A large, positively tilted upper trough/low is over the Mid MS Valley today, with an associated surface cold front sweeping eastward across AL/GA/FL. Southerly low-level winds ahead of the front have weakened considerably from yesterday, limiting the northward transport of Gulf moisture. Dewpoints in the 50s and lower 60s are common ahead of the front, but this only results in MUCAPE values less than 250 J/kg. One small area of slightly greater instability may occur later this afternoon over the central FL Panhandle and vicinity where visible satellite imagery shows broken clouds and more heating potential. This area remains in the MRGL risk. Later tonight, the cold front will sweep eastward across GA and the Carolinas. A combination of weak instability and limited forcing in the warm sector suggests any deep convection that can form will be along, and more likely behind, the front. ..Hart/Gleason.. 01/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated damaging gusts will be possible this afternoon across parts of the central Gulf Coast. ...Southern AL/FL Panhandle into southwest GA... Water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level low over the lower MO Valley this morning. This upper feature is forecast to evolve into an open wave and accelerate eastward to the Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas coast by early Saturday morning. Strong southwesterly mid-level flow will move through the base of the larger-scale trough over the central Gulf Coast states today. In the low levels, an effective cold front extends southward through western AL from an occluded surface low over the mid MS Valley. This front will push east during the day with southerly low-level flow acting to advect a still-modifying airmass northward into the FL Panhandle and AL/GA. Scant buoyancy sampled this morning on the 12 UTC Birmingham, AL raob (100 J/kg MUCAPE) will contribute to isolated thunderstorm development today. However, weak lapse rates and weak convergence associated with the front will likely limit storm intensity. Uncertainty remains whether robust updrafts can develop with the low-topped convective band moving east across southern AL this morning. Intensification of this band is quite uncertain at this time given a dearth of a severe signal in convection-allowing model guidance and observational trends trending lower. Will maintain a low-probability wind highlight for now given the aforementioned uncertainty. Elsewhere, weak instability may lead to isolated storms over central GA into the Carolinas later today. Forecast soundings show intense flow fields with 100-300 J/kg MUCAPE possibly developing with a neutral surface-1km AGL layer before frontal passage. Confidence in a strong storm over this region is low---precluding severe probabilities. ..Smith/Bentley.. 01/31/2025 Read more