Aggregator

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0919 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced for portions of western/central NV. Recent surface observations show leeward winds off the central Sierra Nevada strengthening to 15-25 mph with RH values falling into the upper single digits and teens due to downslope warming/drying. These conditions are expected to become more widespread through the afternoon as winds increase to 20-30 mph across much of central NV. Critical fire weather conditions appear probable, but recent fuel guidance suggests fuels are generally not supportive of rapid fire spread. For this reason, a Critical risk delineation was withheld, but the Elevated risk area denotes the most probable corridor of critical wind/RH conditions. See the previous discussion below for details pertaining to the fire weather potential across the remainder of the country. ..Moore.. 02/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Zonal flow will largely continue across the US. The upper-level flow will gradually amplify as short-wave ridging develops over the central US. Flow aloft will intensify as broad troughing builds over the Southwest. Gusty winds and dry conditions will be possible near a lee trough across the High Plains and over the northern Great Basin supporting some localized fire-weather potential. However, the large-scale overlap of strong winds, low humidity and receptive fuels appears limited. Further drying of short-hour fuels could support some localized fire-weather risk across parts of eastern NM and west TX, but more widespread fire-weather concerns are not currently expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0919 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced for portions of western/central NV. Recent surface observations show leeward winds off the central Sierra Nevada strengthening to 15-25 mph with RH values falling into the upper single digits and teens due to downslope warming/drying. These conditions are expected to become more widespread through the afternoon as winds increase to 20-30 mph across much of central NV. Critical fire weather conditions appear probable, but recent fuel guidance suggests fuels are generally not supportive of rapid fire spread. For this reason, a Critical risk delineation was withheld, but the Elevated risk area denotes the most probable corridor of critical wind/RH conditions. See the previous discussion below for details pertaining to the fire weather potential across the remainder of the country. ..Moore.. 02/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Zonal flow will largely continue across the US. The upper-level flow will gradually amplify as short-wave ridging develops over the central US. Flow aloft will intensify as broad troughing builds over the Southwest. Gusty winds and dry conditions will be possible near a lee trough across the High Plains and over the northern Great Basin supporting some localized fire-weather potential. However, the large-scale overlap of strong winds, low humidity and receptive fuels appears limited. Further drying of short-hour fuels could support some localized fire-weather risk across parts of eastern NM and west TX, but more widespread fire-weather concerns are not currently expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0919 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced for portions of western/central NV. Recent surface observations show leeward winds off the central Sierra Nevada strengthening to 15-25 mph with RH values falling into the upper single digits and teens due to downslope warming/drying. These conditions are expected to become more widespread through the afternoon as winds increase to 20-30 mph across much of central NV. Critical fire weather conditions appear probable, but recent fuel guidance suggests fuels are generally not supportive of rapid fire spread. For this reason, a Critical risk delineation was withheld, but the Elevated risk area denotes the most probable corridor of critical wind/RH conditions. See the previous discussion below for details pertaining to the fire weather potential across the remainder of the country. ..Moore.. 02/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Zonal flow will largely continue across the US. The upper-level flow will gradually amplify as short-wave ridging develops over the central US. Flow aloft will intensify as broad troughing builds over the Southwest. Gusty winds and dry conditions will be possible near a lee trough across the High Plains and over the northern Great Basin supporting some localized fire-weather potential. However, the large-scale overlap of strong winds, low humidity and receptive fuels appears limited. Further drying of short-hour fuels could support some localized fire-weather risk across parts of eastern NM and west TX, but more widespread fire-weather concerns are not currently expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0919 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced for portions of western/central NV. Recent surface observations show leeward winds off the central Sierra Nevada strengthening to 15-25 mph with RH values falling into the upper single digits and teens due to downslope warming/drying. These conditions are expected to become more widespread through the afternoon as winds increase to 20-30 mph across much of central NV. Critical fire weather conditions appear probable, but recent fuel guidance suggests fuels are generally not supportive of rapid fire spread. For this reason, a Critical risk delineation was withheld, but the Elevated risk area denotes the most probable corridor of critical wind/RH conditions. See the previous discussion below for details pertaining to the fire weather potential across the remainder of the country. ..Moore.. 02/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Zonal flow will largely continue across the US. The upper-level flow will gradually amplify as short-wave ridging develops over the central US. Flow aloft will intensify as broad troughing builds over the Southwest. Gusty winds and dry conditions will be possible near a lee trough across the High Plains and over the northern Great Basin supporting some localized fire-weather potential. However, the large-scale overlap of strong winds, low humidity and receptive fuels appears limited. Further drying of short-hour fuels could support some localized fire-weather risk across parts of eastern NM and west TX, but more widespread fire-weather concerns are not currently expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0919 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced for portions of western/central NV. Recent surface observations show leeward winds off the central Sierra Nevada strengthening to 15-25 mph with RH values falling into the upper single digits and teens due to downslope warming/drying. These conditions are expected to become more widespread through the afternoon as winds increase to 20-30 mph across much of central NV. Critical fire weather conditions appear probable, but recent fuel guidance suggests fuels are generally not supportive of rapid fire spread. For this reason, a Critical risk delineation was withheld, but the Elevated risk area denotes the most probable corridor of critical wind/RH conditions. See the previous discussion below for details pertaining to the fire weather potential across the remainder of the country. ..Moore.. 02/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Zonal flow will largely continue across the US. The upper-level flow will gradually amplify as short-wave ridging develops over the central US. Flow aloft will intensify as broad troughing builds over the Southwest. Gusty winds and dry conditions will be possible near a lee trough across the High Plains and over the northern Great Basin supporting some localized fire-weather potential. However, the large-scale overlap of strong winds, low humidity and receptive fuels appears limited. Further drying of short-hour fuels could support some localized fire-weather risk across parts of eastern NM and west TX, but more widespread fire-weather concerns are not currently expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0919 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced for portions of western/central NV. Recent surface observations show leeward winds off the central Sierra Nevada strengthening to 15-25 mph with RH values falling into the upper single digits and teens due to downslope warming/drying. These conditions are expected to become more widespread through the afternoon as winds increase to 20-30 mph across much of central NV. Critical fire weather conditions appear probable, but recent fuel guidance suggests fuels are generally not supportive of rapid fire spread. For this reason, a Critical risk delineation was withheld, but the Elevated risk area denotes the most probable corridor of critical wind/RH conditions. See the previous discussion below for details pertaining to the fire weather potential across the remainder of the country. ..Moore.. 02/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Zonal flow will largely continue across the US. The upper-level flow will gradually amplify as short-wave ridging develops over the central US. Flow aloft will intensify as broad troughing builds over the Southwest. Gusty winds and dry conditions will be possible near a lee trough across the High Plains and over the northern Great Basin supporting some localized fire-weather potential. However, the large-scale overlap of strong winds, low humidity and receptive fuels appears limited. Further drying of short-hour fuels could support some localized fire-weather risk across parts of eastern NM and west TX, but more widespread fire-weather concerns are not currently expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0919 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced for portions of western/central NV. Recent surface observations show leeward winds off the central Sierra Nevada strengthening to 15-25 mph with RH values falling into the upper single digits and teens due to downslope warming/drying. These conditions are expected to become more widespread through the afternoon as winds increase to 20-30 mph across much of central NV. Critical fire weather conditions appear probable, but recent fuel guidance suggests fuels are generally not supportive of rapid fire spread. For this reason, a Critical risk delineation was withheld, but the Elevated risk area denotes the most probable corridor of critical wind/RH conditions. See the previous discussion below for details pertaining to the fire weather potential across the remainder of the country. ..Moore.. 02/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Zonal flow will largely continue across the US. The upper-level flow will gradually amplify as short-wave ridging develops over the central US. Flow aloft will intensify as broad troughing builds over the Southwest. Gusty winds and dry conditions will be possible near a lee trough across the High Plains and over the northern Great Basin supporting some localized fire-weather potential. However, the large-scale overlap of strong winds, low humidity and receptive fuels appears limited. Further drying of short-hour fuels could support some localized fire-weather risk across parts of eastern NM and west TX, but more widespread fire-weather concerns are not currently expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning indicates a belt of high momentum flow extending from west to east across the northern half of the Lower 48. Model guidance shows this flow regime amplifying as a mid-level ridge builds over the Great Plains and a trough continues to develop over the eastern Pacific to the west of the West Coast. In the low levels, a cold front will push southward across the central Great Plains and through much of the Midwest during the period. A moist conveyor will extend from the eastern Pacific northeastward through northern CA and into the northern Rockies. Showers are forecast within the aforementioned corridor but thunderstorms are not expected. ..Smith/Bentley.. 02/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning indicates a belt of high momentum flow extending from west to east across the northern half of the Lower 48. Model guidance shows this flow regime amplifying as a mid-level ridge builds over the Great Plains and a trough continues to develop over the eastern Pacific to the west of the West Coast. In the low levels, a cold front will push southward across the central Great Plains and through much of the Midwest during the period. A moist conveyor will extend from the eastern Pacific northeastward through northern CA and into the northern Rockies. Showers are forecast within the aforementioned corridor but thunderstorms are not expected. ..Smith/Bentley.. 02/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning indicates a belt of high momentum flow extending from west to east across the northern half of the Lower 48. Model guidance shows this flow regime amplifying as a mid-level ridge builds over the Great Plains and a trough continues to develop over the eastern Pacific to the west of the West Coast. In the low levels, a cold front will push southward across the central Great Plains and through much of the Midwest during the period. A moist conveyor will extend from the eastern Pacific northeastward through northern CA and into the northern Rockies. Showers are forecast within the aforementioned corridor but thunderstorms are not expected. ..Smith/Bentley.. 02/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning indicates a belt of high momentum flow extending from west to east across the northern half of the Lower 48. Model guidance shows this flow regime amplifying as a mid-level ridge builds over the Great Plains and a trough continues to develop over the eastern Pacific to the west of the West Coast. In the low levels, a cold front will push southward across the central Great Plains and through much of the Midwest during the period. A moist conveyor will extend from the eastern Pacific northeastward through northern CA and into the northern Rockies. Showers are forecast within the aforementioned corridor but thunderstorms are not expected. ..Smith/Bentley.. 02/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning indicates a belt of high momentum flow extending from west to east across the northern half of the Lower 48. Model guidance shows this flow regime amplifying as a mid-level ridge builds over the Great Plains and a trough continues to develop over the eastern Pacific to the west of the West Coast. In the low levels, a cold front will push southward across the central Great Plains and through much of the Midwest during the period. A moist conveyor will extend from the eastern Pacific northeastward through northern CA and into the northern Rockies. Showers are forecast within the aforementioned corridor but thunderstorms are not expected. ..Smith/Bentley.. 02/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning indicates a belt of high momentum flow extending from west to east across the northern half of the Lower 48. Model guidance shows this flow regime amplifying as a mid-level ridge builds over the Great Plains and a trough continues to develop over the eastern Pacific to the west of the West Coast. In the low levels, a cold front will push southward across the central Great Plains and through much of the Midwest during the period. A moist conveyor will extend from the eastern Pacific northeastward through northern CA and into the northern Rockies. Showers are forecast within the aforementioned corridor but thunderstorms are not expected. ..Smith/Bentley.. 02/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning indicates a belt of high momentum flow extending from west to east across the northern half of the Lower 48. Model guidance shows this flow regime amplifying as a mid-level ridge builds over the Great Plains and a trough continues to develop over the eastern Pacific to the west of the West Coast. In the low levels, a cold front will push southward across the central Great Plains and through much of the Midwest during the period. A moist conveyor will extend from the eastern Pacific northeastward through northern CA and into the northern Rockies. Showers are forecast within the aforementioned corridor but thunderstorms are not expected. ..Smith/Bentley.. 02/03/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0403 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... A short-wave trough is progged to be moving across the Midwest/Ohio Valley day 4 (Thursday), along with a weak surface wave moving along a baroclinic zone separating Arctic air to the north, and a more temperate/modifying continental airmass to the south. Late day 4 (Friday morning), the low is forecast to undergo significant cyclogenesis over the Canadian Maritimes, with the trailing surface front becoming realigned in an east/west orientation from the Carolinas to the southern Plains. During the day 4 period, as the cold front progresses southward across the Mid South in the immediate wake of the weak frontal wave, showers and isolated thunderstorms -- initially confined to the cool side of the front -- will likely develop across the Mid South in a weakly destabilizing warm sector. With strong/weakly veering flow through the lower troposphere, storms which do develop would be fast-moving, and could intensify locally to near severe levels. However, current expectations are that the degree of surface-based destabilization will be limited, and thus overall severe potential tempered as well. While low-probability severe risk across parts of the Mid South may be required in later outlooks, the risk appears too low to highlight at this time. Day 5, the next short-wave trough is forecast to be crossing the Rockies, and will likely begin impinging on the Plains overnight. This will support new frontal low development along the pre-existing west-to-east baroclinic zone. At this time, projections are that a developing low may exist over the Ozarks vicinity, but with limited CAPE expected in the evolving warm sector, severe weather potential would appear minimal at best. Day 6, the low is forecast to move rapidly east-northeastward across the Ohio Valley through the day, and then on into/across New England overnight. As this occurs, the trailing portion of the baroclinic zone should surge southeastward with time -- reaching a position from the Mid-Atlantic region to the Gulf Coast States late. Once again, showers and a few thunderstorms will likely occur within the warm sector, but again, limited CAPE should continue to characterize the pre-frontal environment, tempering overall risk for severe weather. The front should be continuing southward Day 7, moving off the Gulf Coast during the period. Limited CAPE and weaker flow with southward extent should continue to limit any severe risk, continuing through day 8 as the front shifts across Florida through the end of the period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0403 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... A short-wave trough is progged to be moving across the Midwest/Ohio Valley day 4 (Thursday), along with a weak surface wave moving along a baroclinic zone separating Arctic air to the north, and a more temperate/modifying continental airmass to the south. Late day 4 (Friday morning), the low is forecast to undergo significant cyclogenesis over the Canadian Maritimes, with the trailing surface front becoming realigned in an east/west orientation from the Carolinas to the southern Plains. During the day 4 period, as the cold front progresses southward across the Mid South in the immediate wake of the weak frontal wave, showers and isolated thunderstorms -- initially confined to the cool side of the front -- will likely develop across the Mid South in a weakly destabilizing warm sector. With strong/weakly veering flow through the lower troposphere, storms which do develop would be fast-moving, and could intensify locally to near severe levels. However, current expectations are that the degree of surface-based destabilization will be limited, and thus overall severe potential tempered as well. While low-probability severe risk across parts of the Mid South may be required in later outlooks, the risk appears too low to highlight at this time. Day 5, the next short-wave trough is forecast to be crossing the Rockies, and will likely begin impinging on the Plains overnight. This will support new frontal low development along the pre-existing west-to-east baroclinic zone. At this time, projections are that a developing low may exist over the Ozarks vicinity, but with limited CAPE expected in the evolving warm sector, severe weather potential would appear minimal at best. Day 6, the low is forecast to move rapidly east-northeastward across the Ohio Valley through the day, and then on into/across New England overnight. As this occurs, the trailing portion of the baroclinic zone should surge southeastward with time -- reaching a position from the Mid-Atlantic region to the Gulf Coast States late. Once again, showers and a few thunderstorms will likely occur within the warm sector, but again, limited CAPE should continue to characterize the pre-frontal environment, tempering overall risk for severe weather. The front should be continuing southward Day 7, moving off the Gulf Coast during the period. Limited CAPE and weaker flow with southward extent should continue to limit any severe risk, continuing through day 8 as the front shifts across Florida through the end of the period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0403 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... A short-wave trough is progged to be moving across the Midwest/Ohio Valley day 4 (Thursday), along with a weak surface wave moving along a baroclinic zone separating Arctic air to the north, and a more temperate/modifying continental airmass to the south. Late day 4 (Friday morning), the low is forecast to undergo significant cyclogenesis over the Canadian Maritimes, with the trailing surface front becoming realigned in an east/west orientation from the Carolinas to the southern Plains. During the day 4 period, as the cold front progresses southward across the Mid South in the immediate wake of the weak frontal wave, showers and isolated thunderstorms -- initially confined to the cool side of the front -- will likely develop across the Mid South in a weakly destabilizing warm sector. With strong/weakly veering flow through the lower troposphere, storms which do develop would be fast-moving, and could intensify locally to near severe levels. However, current expectations are that the degree of surface-based destabilization will be limited, and thus overall severe potential tempered as well. While low-probability severe risk across parts of the Mid South may be required in later outlooks, the risk appears too low to highlight at this time. Day 5, the next short-wave trough is forecast to be crossing the Rockies, and will likely begin impinging on the Plains overnight. This will support new frontal low development along the pre-existing west-to-east baroclinic zone. At this time, projections are that a developing low may exist over the Ozarks vicinity, but with limited CAPE expected in the evolving warm sector, severe weather potential would appear minimal at best. Day 6, the low is forecast to move rapidly east-northeastward across the Ohio Valley through the day, and then on into/across New England overnight. As this occurs, the trailing portion of the baroclinic zone should surge southeastward with time -- reaching a position from the Mid-Atlantic region to the Gulf Coast States late. Once again, showers and a few thunderstorms will likely occur within the warm sector, but again, limited CAPE should continue to characterize the pre-frontal environment, tempering overall risk for severe weather. The front should be continuing southward Day 7, moving off the Gulf Coast during the period. Limited CAPE and weaker flow with southward extent should continue to limit any severe risk, continuing through day 8 as the front shifts across Florida through the end of the period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0403 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... A short-wave trough is progged to be moving across the Midwest/Ohio Valley day 4 (Thursday), along with a weak surface wave moving along a baroclinic zone separating Arctic air to the north, and a more temperate/modifying continental airmass to the south. Late day 4 (Friday morning), the low is forecast to undergo significant cyclogenesis over the Canadian Maritimes, with the trailing surface front becoming realigned in an east/west orientation from the Carolinas to the southern Plains. During the day 4 period, as the cold front progresses southward across the Mid South in the immediate wake of the weak frontal wave, showers and isolated thunderstorms -- initially confined to the cool side of the front -- will likely develop across the Mid South in a weakly destabilizing warm sector. With strong/weakly veering flow through the lower troposphere, storms which do develop would be fast-moving, and could intensify locally to near severe levels. However, current expectations are that the degree of surface-based destabilization will be limited, and thus overall severe potential tempered as well. While low-probability severe risk across parts of the Mid South may be required in later outlooks, the risk appears too low to highlight at this time. Day 5, the next short-wave trough is forecast to be crossing the Rockies, and will likely begin impinging on the Plains overnight. This will support new frontal low development along the pre-existing west-to-east baroclinic zone. At this time, projections are that a developing low may exist over the Ozarks vicinity, but with limited CAPE expected in the evolving warm sector, severe weather potential would appear minimal at best. Day 6, the low is forecast to move rapidly east-northeastward across the Ohio Valley through the day, and then on into/across New England overnight. As this occurs, the trailing portion of the baroclinic zone should surge southeastward with time -- reaching a position from the Mid-Atlantic region to the Gulf Coast States late. Once again, showers and a few thunderstorms will likely occur within the warm sector, but again, limited CAPE should continue to characterize the pre-frontal environment, tempering overall risk for severe weather. The front should be continuing southward Day 7, moving off the Gulf Coast during the period. Limited CAPE and weaker flow with southward extent should continue to limit any severe risk, continuing through day 8 as the front shifts across Florida through the end of the period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0403 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... A short-wave trough is progged to be moving across the Midwest/Ohio Valley day 4 (Thursday), along with a weak surface wave moving along a baroclinic zone separating Arctic air to the north, and a more temperate/modifying continental airmass to the south. Late day 4 (Friday morning), the low is forecast to undergo significant cyclogenesis over the Canadian Maritimes, with the trailing surface front becoming realigned in an east/west orientation from the Carolinas to the southern Plains. During the day 4 period, as the cold front progresses southward across the Mid South in the immediate wake of the weak frontal wave, showers and isolated thunderstorms -- initially confined to the cool side of the front -- will likely develop across the Mid South in a weakly destabilizing warm sector. With strong/weakly veering flow through the lower troposphere, storms which do develop would be fast-moving, and could intensify locally to near severe levels. However, current expectations are that the degree of surface-based destabilization will be limited, and thus overall severe potential tempered as well. While low-probability severe risk across parts of the Mid South may be required in later outlooks, the risk appears too low to highlight at this time. Day 5, the next short-wave trough is forecast to be crossing the Rockies, and will likely begin impinging on the Plains overnight. This will support new frontal low development along the pre-existing west-to-east baroclinic zone. At this time, projections are that a developing low may exist over the Ozarks vicinity, but with limited CAPE expected in the evolving warm sector, severe weather potential would appear minimal at best. Day 6, the low is forecast to move rapidly east-northeastward across the Ohio Valley through the day, and then on into/across New England overnight. As this occurs, the trailing portion of the baroclinic zone should surge southeastward with time -- reaching a position from the Mid-Atlantic region to the Gulf Coast States late. Once again, showers and a few thunderstorms will likely occur within the warm sector, but again, limited CAPE should continue to characterize the pre-frontal environment, tempering overall risk for severe weather. The front should be continuing southward Day 7, moving off the Gulf Coast during the period. Limited CAPE and weaker flow with southward extent should continue to limit any severe risk, continuing through day 8 as the front shifts across Florida through the end of the period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0403 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... A short-wave trough is progged to be moving across the Midwest/Ohio Valley day 4 (Thursday), along with a weak surface wave moving along a baroclinic zone separating Arctic air to the north, and a more temperate/modifying continental airmass to the south. Late day 4 (Friday morning), the low is forecast to undergo significant cyclogenesis over the Canadian Maritimes, with the trailing surface front becoming realigned in an east/west orientation from the Carolinas to the southern Plains. During the day 4 period, as the cold front progresses southward across the Mid South in the immediate wake of the weak frontal wave, showers and isolated thunderstorms -- initially confined to the cool side of the front -- will likely develop across the Mid South in a weakly destabilizing warm sector. With strong/weakly veering flow through the lower troposphere, storms which do develop would be fast-moving, and could intensify locally to near severe levels. However, current expectations are that the degree of surface-based destabilization will be limited, and thus overall severe potential tempered as well. While low-probability severe risk across parts of the Mid South may be required in later outlooks, the risk appears too low to highlight at this time. Day 5, the next short-wave trough is forecast to be crossing the Rockies, and will likely begin impinging on the Plains overnight. This will support new frontal low development along the pre-existing west-to-east baroclinic zone. At this time, projections are that a developing low may exist over the Ozarks vicinity, but with limited CAPE expected in the evolving warm sector, severe weather potential would appear minimal at best. Day 6, the low is forecast to move rapidly east-northeastward across the Ohio Valley through the day, and then on into/across New England overnight. As this occurs, the trailing portion of the baroclinic zone should surge southeastward with time -- reaching a position from the Mid-Atlantic region to the Gulf Coast States late. Once again, showers and a few thunderstorms will likely occur within the warm sector, but again, limited CAPE should continue to characterize the pre-frontal environment, tempering overall risk for severe weather. The front should be continuing southward Day 7, moving off the Gulf Coast during the period. Limited CAPE and weaker flow with southward extent should continue to limit any severe risk, continuing through day 8 as the front shifts across Florida through the end of the period. Read more