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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible today in parts of the western U.S., but no severe storms are expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a ridge will move eastward across the central U.S. today, as a trough approaches the West Coast. Ahead of the trough, a few thunderstorms may develop in parts of north-central California from San Francisco eastward into the Sierra. Isolated lighting strikes may also occur along the Oregon coast. No severe threat is expected. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 02/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible today in parts of the western U.S., but no severe storms are expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a ridge will move eastward across the central U.S. today, as a trough approaches the West Coast. Ahead of the trough, a few thunderstorms may develop in parts of north-central California from San Francisco eastward into the Sierra. Isolated lighting strikes may also occur along the Oregon coast. No severe threat is expected. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 02/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible today in parts of the western U.S., but no severe storms are expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a ridge will move eastward across the central U.S. today, as a trough approaches the West Coast. Ahead of the trough, a few thunderstorms may develop in parts of north-central California from San Francisco eastward into the Sierra. Isolated lighting strikes may also occur along the Oregon coast. No severe threat is expected. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 02/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 PM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...DISCUSSION... West to west-northwest mid-level flow is in place across most of the U.S. At the surface, high pressure is dominating across much of the Southeast and Eastern Seaboard, with a cold front moving southward through the central states. This front will usher another high pressure system southward into the north-central U.S. As this front moves south, the dry air over much of the continental U.S. will be reinforced. The relatively dry air will make conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms through tonight. ..Broyles.. 02/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 PM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...DISCUSSION... West to west-northwest mid-level flow is in place across most of the U.S. At the surface, high pressure is dominating across much of the Southeast and Eastern Seaboard, with a cold front moving southward through the central states. This front will usher another high pressure system southward into the north-central U.S. As this front moves south, the dry air over much of the continental U.S. will be reinforced. The relatively dry air will make conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms through tonight. ..Broyles.. 02/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 PM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...DISCUSSION... West to west-northwest mid-level flow is in place across most of the U.S. At the surface, high pressure is dominating across much of the Southeast and Eastern Seaboard, with a cold front moving southward through the central states. This front will usher another high pressure system southward into the north-central U.S. As this front moves south, the dry air over much of the continental U.S. will be reinforced. The relatively dry air will make conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms through tonight. ..Broyles.. 02/04/2025 Read more

MD 0063 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR SOUTHWEST OR INTO EXTREME NORTHERN CA
Mesoscale Discussion 0063 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 PM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Areas affected...Southwest OR into extreme northern CA Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 032201Z - 040100Z SUMMARY...Locally heavy snow rates will continue through the afternoon. DISCUSSION...Moderate to locally heavy precipitation is ongoing this afternoon from northern CA into southwest OR, in association with a midlevel shortwave trough and an extensive plume of moisture emanating from the eastern Pacific. Colder temperatures to the north of a stationary front across northern CA are supporting heavier snow rates across parts of southwest OR, including recent observations of heavy snow at KMFR. Moderate to locally heavy wet snow may persist at lower elevations through the afternoon, given the presence of heavier precipitation rates and a lack of near-surface warm advection, while heavy snow rates will continue across favored upslope regions at higher elevation. ..Dean.. 02/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFR...EKA... LAT...LON 41952355 42552328 43022271 43252216 43342156 43202124 42962123 42372165 41972214 41882268 41792300 41812330 41952355 Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Feb 3 23:00:02 UTC 2025.

MD 0063 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR SOUTHWEST OR INTO EXTREME NORTHERN CA
Mesoscale Discussion 0063 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 PM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Areas affected...Southwest OR into extreme northern CA Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 032201Z - 040100Z SUMMARY...Locally heavy snow rates will continue through the afternoon. DISCUSSION...Moderate to locally heavy precipitation is ongoing this afternoon from northern CA into southwest OR, in association with a midlevel shortwave trough and an extensive plume of moisture emanating from the eastern Pacific. Colder temperatures to the north of a stationary front across northern CA are supporting heavier snow rates across parts of southwest OR, including recent observations of heavy snow at KMFR. Moderate to locally heavy wet snow may persist at lower elevations through the afternoon, given the presence of heavier precipitation rates and a lack of near-surface warm advection, while heavy snow rates will continue across favored upslope regions at higher elevation. ..Dean.. 02/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFR...EKA... LAT...LON 41952355 42552328 43022271 43252216 43342156 43202124 42962123 42372165 41972214 41882268 41792300 41812330 41952355 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z Fire weather concerns will most likely be confined to the southern High Plains through the end of the work week as dry conditions persist. Long-range ensemble guidance maintains an anomalously strong, but low-amplitude, upper ridge over the south-central CONUS through the middle of the work week. This will maintain dry conditions for eastern NM and western TX, which currently have 30-day rainfall deficits of around 25% of normal. Some weakening of the ridge is anticipated over the second half of the week, resulting in strengthening zonal flow over the central/southern Rockies. Lee troughing is expected to be most pronounced on D3/Wed and D5/Fri due to the influence of two passing low-amplitude upper disturbances. The resulting low-level mass response will likely induce winds upwards of 15-25 mph across parts of eastern NM and western TX with RH reductions falling to near/below 20% due to a combination of dry air advection from the Desert Southwest and downslope warming/drying. Ensemble guidance suggests a stronger surface low is likely on D3/Wed, which should support a more robust/widespread fire weather threat. Regardless, the curing of fine grasses across the region after a prolonged dry period (coupled with above-average temperatures for the past few days) should support a fire weather concern as winds increase later this week. ..Moore.. 02/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z Fire weather concerns will most likely be confined to the southern High Plains through the end of the work week as dry conditions persist. Long-range ensemble guidance maintains an anomalously strong, but low-amplitude, upper ridge over the south-central CONUS through the middle of the work week. This will maintain dry conditions for eastern NM and western TX, which currently have 30-day rainfall deficits of around 25% of normal. Some weakening of the ridge is anticipated over the second half of the week, resulting in strengthening zonal flow over the central/southern Rockies. Lee troughing is expected to be most pronounced on D3/Wed and D5/Fri due to the influence of two passing low-amplitude upper disturbances. The resulting low-level mass response will likely induce winds upwards of 15-25 mph across parts of eastern NM and western TX with RH reductions falling to near/below 20% due to a combination of dry air advection from the Desert Southwest and downslope warming/drying. Ensemble guidance suggests a stronger surface low is likely on D3/Wed, which should support a more robust/widespread fire weather threat. Regardless, the curing of fine grasses across the region after a prolonged dry period (coupled with above-average temperatures for the past few days) should support a fire weather concern as winds increase later this week. ..Moore.. 02/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z Fire weather concerns will most likely be confined to the southern High Plains through the end of the work week as dry conditions persist. Long-range ensemble guidance maintains an anomalously strong, but low-amplitude, upper ridge over the south-central CONUS through the middle of the work week. This will maintain dry conditions for eastern NM and western TX, which currently have 30-day rainfall deficits of around 25% of normal. Some weakening of the ridge is anticipated over the second half of the week, resulting in strengthening zonal flow over the central/southern Rockies. Lee troughing is expected to be most pronounced on D3/Wed and D5/Fri due to the influence of two passing low-amplitude upper disturbances. The resulting low-level mass response will likely induce winds upwards of 15-25 mph across parts of eastern NM and western TX with RH reductions falling to near/below 20% due to a combination of dry air advection from the Desert Southwest and downslope warming/drying. Ensemble guidance suggests a stronger surface low is likely on D3/Wed, which should support a more robust/widespread fire weather threat. Regardless, the curing of fine grasses across the region after a prolonged dry period (coupled with above-average temperatures for the past few days) should support a fire weather concern as winds increase later this week. ..Moore.. 02/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z Fire weather concerns will most likely be confined to the southern High Plains through the end of the work week as dry conditions persist. Long-range ensemble guidance maintains an anomalously strong, but low-amplitude, upper ridge over the south-central CONUS through the middle of the work week. This will maintain dry conditions for eastern NM and western TX, which currently have 30-day rainfall deficits of around 25% of normal. Some weakening of the ridge is anticipated over the second half of the week, resulting in strengthening zonal flow over the central/southern Rockies. Lee troughing is expected to be most pronounced on D3/Wed and D5/Fri due to the influence of two passing low-amplitude upper disturbances. The resulting low-level mass response will likely induce winds upwards of 15-25 mph across parts of eastern NM and western TX with RH reductions falling to near/below 20% due to a combination of dry air advection from the Desert Southwest and downslope warming/drying. Ensemble guidance suggests a stronger surface low is likely on D3/Wed, which should support a more robust/widespread fire weather threat. Regardless, the curing of fine grasses across the region after a prolonged dry period (coupled with above-average temperatures for the past few days) should support a fire weather concern as winds increase later this week. ..Moore.. 02/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z Fire weather concerns will most likely be confined to the southern High Plains through the end of the work week as dry conditions persist. Long-range ensemble guidance maintains an anomalously strong, but low-amplitude, upper ridge over the south-central CONUS through the middle of the work week. This will maintain dry conditions for eastern NM and western TX, which currently have 30-day rainfall deficits of around 25% of normal. Some weakening of the ridge is anticipated over the second half of the week, resulting in strengthening zonal flow over the central/southern Rockies. Lee troughing is expected to be most pronounced on D3/Wed and D5/Fri due to the influence of two passing low-amplitude upper disturbances. The resulting low-level mass response will likely induce winds upwards of 15-25 mph across parts of eastern NM and western TX with RH reductions falling to near/below 20% due to a combination of dry air advection from the Desert Southwest and downslope warming/drying. Ensemble guidance suggests a stronger surface low is likely on D3/Wed, which should support a more robust/widespread fire weather threat. Regardless, the curing of fine grasses across the region after a prolonged dry period (coupled with above-average temperatures for the past few days) should support a fire weather concern as winds increase later this week. ..Moore.. 02/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z Fire weather concerns will most likely be confined to the southern High Plains through the end of the work week as dry conditions persist. Long-range ensemble guidance maintains an anomalously strong, but low-amplitude, upper ridge over the south-central CONUS through the middle of the work week. This will maintain dry conditions for eastern NM and western TX, which currently have 30-day rainfall deficits of around 25% of normal. Some weakening of the ridge is anticipated over the second half of the week, resulting in strengthening zonal flow over the central/southern Rockies. Lee troughing is expected to be most pronounced on D3/Wed and D5/Fri due to the influence of two passing low-amplitude upper disturbances. The resulting low-level mass response will likely induce winds upwards of 15-25 mph across parts of eastern NM and western TX with RH reductions falling to near/below 20% due to a combination of dry air advection from the Desert Southwest and downslope warming/drying. Ensemble guidance suggests a stronger surface low is likely on D3/Wed, which should support a more robust/widespread fire weather threat. Regardless, the curing of fine grasses across the region after a prolonged dry period (coupled with above-average temperatures for the past few days) should support a fire weather concern as winds increase later this week. ..Moore.. 02/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Feb 3 21:26:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 02/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025/ Fast zonal flow is present today across the northern 2/3rds of the CONUS, with dry and stable conditions precluding organized thunderstorm activity throughout the period. A warm and moist air mass across south FL, coupled with strong daytime heating, will result in a few showers and perhaps a lightning flash. Strong onshore flow and cold mid-level temperatures could also result in a lightning flash along the coast of WA/OR. In both places, very weak thermodynamic parameters suggest the threat is below 10%. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 02/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025/ Fast zonal flow is present today across the northern 2/3rds of the CONUS, with dry and stable conditions precluding organized thunderstorm activity throughout the period. A warm and moist air mass across south FL, coupled with strong daytime heating, will result in a few showers and perhaps a lightning flash. Strong onshore flow and cold mid-level temperatures could also result in a lightning flash along the coast of WA/OR. In both places, very weak thermodynamic parameters suggest the threat is below 10%. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 02/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025/ Fast zonal flow is present today across the northern 2/3rds of the CONUS, with dry and stable conditions precluding organized thunderstorm activity throughout the period. A warm and moist air mass across south FL, coupled with strong daytime heating, will result in a few showers and perhaps a lightning flash. Strong onshore flow and cold mid-level temperatures could also result in a lightning flash along the coast of WA/OR. In both places, very weak thermodynamic parameters suggest the threat is below 10%. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 02/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025/ Fast zonal flow is present today across the northern 2/3rds of the CONUS, with dry and stable conditions precluding organized thunderstorm activity throughout the period. A warm and moist air mass across south FL, coupled with strong daytime heating, will result in a few showers and perhaps a lightning flash. Strong onshore flow and cold mid-level temperatures could also result in a lightning flash along the coast of WA/OR. In both places, very weak thermodynamic parameters suggest the threat is below 10%. Read more