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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Minimal thunder potential is evident across the U.S. on Monday. ...Discussion... A zonal flow configuration aloft is forecast at the start of the Day 2 period across the U.S., but with weak amplification expected with time, as a weak low near the southwestern Canada coast deepens and retrogrades slowly southwestward. As this occurs, broader/weakly cyclonic flow will gradually evolve near and off the West Coast. In response, weak downstream ridging will occur over the central U.S., and troughing still further downstream, over the eastern states. At the surface, a cold front will shift eastward across eastern Canada and the Northeast, and southward across the Plains and Midwest. By late in the period, the front should extend from near the New England coast and Mid-Atlantic region west-southwestward to the southern Plains. While weak low-level theta-e advection is expected across the southern U.S. south of the cold front, it should remain insufficient to yield CAPE supportive of thunderstorm development. Meanwhile, Arctic air expanding southward across the northern U.S. will prove hostile to deep convection. Late in the period, short-wave troughing moving into California will likely support an increase in showers -- and potentially an embedded lightning flash or two near the central Coast. Overall potential however does not appear to warrant inclusion of a 10% thunder area at this time. ..Goss.. 02/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Minimal thunder potential is evident across the U.S. on Monday. ...Discussion... A zonal flow configuration aloft is forecast at the start of the Day 2 period across the U.S., but with weak amplification expected with time, as a weak low near the southwestern Canada coast deepens and retrogrades slowly southwestward. As this occurs, broader/weakly cyclonic flow will gradually evolve near and off the West Coast. In response, weak downstream ridging will occur over the central U.S., and troughing still further downstream, over the eastern states. At the surface, a cold front will shift eastward across eastern Canada and the Northeast, and southward across the Plains and Midwest. By late in the period, the front should extend from near the New England coast and Mid-Atlantic region west-southwestward to the southern Plains. While weak low-level theta-e advection is expected across the southern U.S. south of the cold front, it should remain insufficient to yield CAPE supportive of thunderstorm development. Meanwhile, Arctic air expanding southward across the northern U.S. will prove hostile to deep convection. Late in the period, short-wave troughing moving into California will likely support an increase in showers -- and potentially an embedded lightning flash or two near the central Coast. Overall potential however does not appear to warrant inclusion of a 10% thunder area at this time. ..Goss.. 02/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Minimal thunder potential is evident across the U.S. on Monday. ...Discussion... A zonal flow configuration aloft is forecast at the start of the Day 2 period across the U.S., but with weak amplification expected with time, as a weak low near the southwestern Canada coast deepens and retrogrades slowly southwestward. As this occurs, broader/weakly cyclonic flow will gradually evolve near and off the West Coast. In response, weak downstream ridging will occur over the central U.S., and troughing still further downstream, over the eastern states. At the surface, a cold front will shift eastward across eastern Canada and the Northeast, and southward across the Plains and Midwest. By late in the period, the front should extend from near the New England coast and Mid-Atlantic region west-southwestward to the southern Plains. While weak low-level theta-e advection is expected across the southern U.S. south of the cold front, it should remain insufficient to yield CAPE supportive of thunderstorm development. Meanwhile, Arctic air expanding southward across the northern U.S. will prove hostile to deep convection. Late in the period, short-wave troughing moving into California will likely support an increase in showers -- and potentially an embedded lightning flash or two near the central Coast. Overall potential however does not appear to warrant inclusion of a 10% thunder area at this time. ..Goss.. 02/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Minimal thunder potential is evident across the U.S. on Monday. ...Discussion... A zonal flow configuration aloft is forecast at the start of the Day 2 period across the U.S., but with weak amplification expected with time, as a weak low near the southwestern Canada coast deepens and retrogrades slowly southwestward. As this occurs, broader/weakly cyclonic flow will gradually evolve near and off the West Coast. In response, weak downstream ridging will occur over the central U.S., and troughing still further downstream, over the eastern states. At the surface, a cold front will shift eastward across eastern Canada and the Northeast, and southward across the Plains and Midwest. By late in the period, the front should extend from near the New England coast and Mid-Atlantic region west-southwestward to the southern Plains. While weak low-level theta-e advection is expected across the southern U.S. south of the cold front, it should remain insufficient to yield CAPE supportive of thunderstorm development. Meanwhile, Arctic air expanding southward across the northern U.S. will prove hostile to deep convection. Late in the period, short-wave troughing moving into California will likely support an increase in showers -- and potentially an embedded lightning flash or two near the central Coast. Overall potential however does not appear to warrant inclusion of a 10% thunder area at this time. ..Goss.. 02/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Minimal thunder potential is evident across the U.S. on Monday. ...Discussion... A zonal flow configuration aloft is forecast at the start of the Day 2 period across the U.S., but with weak amplification expected with time, as a weak low near the southwestern Canada coast deepens and retrogrades slowly southwestward. As this occurs, broader/weakly cyclonic flow will gradually evolve near and off the West Coast. In response, weak downstream ridging will occur over the central U.S., and troughing still further downstream, over the eastern states. At the surface, a cold front will shift eastward across eastern Canada and the Northeast, and southward across the Plains and Midwest. By late in the period, the front should extend from near the New England coast and Mid-Atlantic region west-southwestward to the southern Plains. While weak low-level theta-e advection is expected across the southern U.S. south of the cold front, it should remain insufficient to yield CAPE supportive of thunderstorm development. Meanwhile, Arctic air expanding southward across the northern U.S. will prove hostile to deep convection. Late in the period, short-wave troughing moving into California will likely support an increase in showers -- and potentially an embedded lightning flash or two near the central Coast. Overall potential however does not appear to warrant inclusion of a 10% thunder area at this time. ..Goss.. 02/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. today or tonight. ...DISCUSSION... Mid-level westerly flow will be in place today across the nation today as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves across the eastern U.S. At the surface, high pressure will remain entrenched over much of the central U.S. The relatively cool and dry air will make conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms through tonight. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 02/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. today or tonight. ...DISCUSSION... Mid-level westerly flow will be in place today across the nation today as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves across the eastern U.S. At the surface, high pressure will remain entrenched over much of the central U.S. The relatively cool and dry air will make conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms through tonight. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 02/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. today or tonight. ...DISCUSSION... Mid-level westerly flow will be in place today across the nation today as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves across the eastern U.S. At the surface, high pressure will remain entrenched over much of the central U.S. The relatively cool and dry air will make conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms through tonight. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 02/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. today or tonight. ...DISCUSSION... Mid-level westerly flow will be in place today across the nation today as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves across the eastern U.S. At the surface, high pressure will remain entrenched over much of the central U.S. The relatively cool and dry air will make conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms through tonight. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 02/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. today or tonight. ...DISCUSSION... Mid-level westerly flow will be in place today across the nation today as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves across the eastern U.S. At the surface, high pressure will remain entrenched over much of the central U.S. The relatively cool and dry air will make conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms through tonight. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 02/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible this evening over the Olympic Peninsula of northwest Washington. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, westerly flow will be in place this evening into tonight across most of the continental U.S. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this evening in far northwest Washington, as a shortwave trough moves inland. Elsewhere across the nation, thunderstorms are not expected, mainly due to the influence of a high pressure system in the central and eastern U.S., which is associated with relatively cool and dry air. ..Broyles.. 02/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible this evening over the Olympic Peninsula of northwest Washington. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, westerly flow will be in place this evening into tonight across most of the continental U.S. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this evening in far northwest Washington, as a shortwave trough moves inland. Elsewhere across the nation, thunderstorms are not expected, mainly due to the influence of a high pressure system in the central and eastern U.S., which is associated with relatively cool and dry air. ..Broyles.. 02/02/2025 Read more

MD 0062 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 0062 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Areas affected...Portions of central and northern Minnesota Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 012008Z - 020015Z SUMMARY...Moderate to locally heavy snowfall is expected to develop across portions of central MN and the Northland through late this afternoon. Snowfall rates exceeding 1" per hour will be possible. DISCUSSION...Latest observational trends, including shallow convective elements in visible satellite imagery, increasing snowfall rates, and decreased visibility, suggest heavier snowfall potential is materializing across portions of central MN and the Northland this afternoon. A stout low-level jet, and to some extent DPVA associated with an upstream shortwave trough, is supporting enhanced ascent across this region. As the low level flow slowly continues to veer, isentropic ascent should become maximized within the outlined area where it will be juxtaposed with higher moisture content through the DGZ and aloft. In addition to the heavier rates, surface winds near 15 to 20 kt will aid in reduced visibility through late this afternoon. ..Barnes/Hart.. 02/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF... LAT...LON 47309476 46739477 46419479 46279468 46119449 45899425 45759405 45579361 45549338 45659301 45749286 45889267 46179240 46519231 46669210 46799187 47029170 47219188 47359224 47459234 47459234 47519234 47639247 47759264 47869296 47929325 47989361 47969386 47949402 47819436 47639457 47309476 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Feb 1 22:34:01 UTC 2025.

MD 0062 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 0062 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Areas affected...Portions of central and northern Minnesota Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 012008Z - 020015Z SUMMARY...Moderate to locally heavy snowfall is expected to develop across portions of central MN and the Northland through late this afternoon. Snowfall rates exceeding 1" per hour will be possible. DISCUSSION...Latest observational trends, including shallow convective elements in visible satellite imagery, increasing snowfall rates, and decreased visibility, suggest heavier snowfall potential is materializing across portions of central MN and the Northland this afternoon. A stout low-level jet, and to some extent DPVA associated with an upstream shortwave trough, is supporting enhanced ascent across this region. As the low level flow slowly continues to veer, isentropic ascent should become maximized within the outlined area where it will be juxtaposed with higher moisture content through the DGZ and aloft. In addition to the heavier rates, surface winds near 15 to 20 kt will aid in reduced visibility through late this afternoon. ..Barnes/Hart.. 02/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF... LAT...LON 47309476 46739477 46419479 46279468 46119449 45899425 45759405 45579361 45549338 45659301 45749286 45889267 46179240 46519231 46669210 46799187 47029170 47219188 47359224 47459234 47459234 47519234 47639247 47759264 47869296 47929325 47989361 47969386 47949402 47819436 47639457 47309476 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 PM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An elongated upper-level ridge will begin to amplify early next week as a trough moves into the West. Model trends over the past 24 hours have generally decreased the amplitude of the western trough. This is most notable in the GFS. This impacts the southern extent of the stronger mid-level flow and, consequently, the strength of the lee trough anticipated towards next Wednesday. Of further note, the shortwave trough feature in the southern High Plains on Wednesday has sped up in the latest model guidance and is slightly less optimally timed during the afternoon as a result. At the surface, an initial cold air surge on Monday/Tuesday in the Plains will likely stall somewhere in Oklahoma and will not make much westward progress into the southern Rockies. Another cold air surge will push farther south and west on Thursday. ...Southern High Plains... A few days of at least modestly dry and breezy conditions are expected this weekend into early next week. Fuels will continue to dry further given the lack of precipitation recently. Given the model trends of late, confidence in critical fire weather remains low to moderate. Based on the ECMWF as well as ensemble guidance, 40% critical probabilities will be maintained as the pattern will still support elevated to locally critical fire weather. Of course, model trends will continue to be monitored over the next few days. ..Wendt.. 02/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 PM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An elongated upper-level ridge will begin to amplify early next week as a trough moves into the West. Model trends over the past 24 hours have generally decreased the amplitude of the western trough. This is most notable in the GFS. This impacts the southern extent of the stronger mid-level flow and, consequently, the strength of the lee trough anticipated towards next Wednesday. Of further note, the shortwave trough feature in the southern High Plains on Wednesday has sped up in the latest model guidance and is slightly less optimally timed during the afternoon as a result. At the surface, an initial cold air surge on Monday/Tuesday in the Plains will likely stall somewhere in Oklahoma and will not make much westward progress into the southern Rockies. Another cold air surge will push farther south and west on Thursday. ...Southern High Plains... A few days of at least modestly dry and breezy conditions are expected this weekend into early next week. Fuels will continue to dry further given the lack of precipitation recently. Given the model trends of late, confidence in critical fire weather remains low to moderate. Based on the ECMWF as well as ensemble guidance, 40% critical probabilities will be maintained as the pattern will still support elevated to locally critical fire weather. Of course, model trends will continue to be monitored over the next few days. ..Wendt.. 02/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 PM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An elongated upper-level ridge will begin to amplify early next week as a trough moves into the West. Model trends over the past 24 hours have generally decreased the amplitude of the western trough. This is most notable in the GFS. This impacts the southern extent of the stronger mid-level flow and, consequently, the strength of the lee trough anticipated towards next Wednesday. Of further note, the shortwave trough feature in the southern High Plains on Wednesday has sped up in the latest model guidance and is slightly less optimally timed during the afternoon as a result. At the surface, an initial cold air surge on Monday/Tuesday in the Plains will likely stall somewhere in Oklahoma and will not make much westward progress into the southern Rockies. Another cold air surge will push farther south and west on Thursday. ...Southern High Plains... A few days of at least modestly dry and breezy conditions are expected this weekend into early next week. Fuels will continue to dry further given the lack of precipitation recently. Given the model trends of late, confidence in critical fire weather remains low to moderate. Based on the ECMWF as well as ensemble guidance, 40% critical probabilities will be maintained as the pattern will still support elevated to locally critical fire weather. Of course, model trends will continue to be monitored over the next few days. ..Wendt.. 02/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 PM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An elongated upper-level ridge will begin to amplify early next week as a trough moves into the West. Model trends over the past 24 hours have generally decreased the amplitude of the western trough. This is most notable in the GFS. This impacts the southern extent of the stronger mid-level flow and, consequently, the strength of the lee trough anticipated towards next Wednesday. Of further note, the shortwave trough feature in the southern High Plains on Wednesday has sped up in the latest model guidance and is slightly less optimally timed during the afternoon as a result. At the surface, an initial cold air surge on Monday/Tuesday in the Plains will likely stall somewhere in Oklahoma and will not make much westward progress into the southern Rockies. Another cold air surge will push farther south and west on Thursday. ...Southern High Plains... A few days of at least modestly dry and breezy conditions are expected this weekend into early next week. Fuels will continue to dry further given the lack of precipitation recently. Given the model trends of late, confidence in critical fire weather remains low to moderate. Based on the ECMWF as well as ensemble guidance, 40% critical probabilities will be maintained as the pattern will still support elevated to locally critical fire weather. Of course, model trends will continue to be monitored over the next few days. ..Wendt.. 02/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 PM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An elongated upper-level ridge will begin to amplify early next week as a trough moves into the West. Model trends over the past 24 hours have generally decreased the amplitude of the western trough. This is most notable in the GFS. This impacts the southern extent of the stronger mid-level flow and, consequently, the strength of the lee trough anticipated towards next Wednesday. Of further note, the shortwave trough feature in the southern High Plains on Wednesday has sped up in the latest model guidance and is slightly less optimally timed during the afternoon as a result. At the surface, an initial cold air surge on Monday/Tuesday in the Plains will likely stall somewhere in Oklahoma and will not make much westward progress into the southern Rockies. Another cold air surge will push farther south and west on Thursday. ...Southern High Plains... A few days of at least modestly dry and breezy conditions are expected this weekend into early next week. Fuels will continue to dry further given the lack of precipitation recently. Given the model trends of late, confidence in critical fire weather remains low to moderate. Based on the ECMWF as well as ensemble guidance, 40% critical probabilities will be maintained as the pattern will still support elevated to locally critical fire weather. Of course, model trends will continue to be monitored over the next few days. ..Wendt.. 02/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more