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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low overall on Tuesday. ...Discussion... Little change in the overall upper pattern over the U.S. is forecast Tuesday, with low-amplitude westerly flow forecast to prevail, while the upper low off the northwestern U.S. coast lingers in place. A subtle short-wave trough embedded in the mid-level westerly flow is progged to cross California and the Great Basin/Desert Southwest with time, reaching the central High Plains late. At the surface, a cold front will remain draped from west to east from the southern Plains to the Carolinas. A few showers may occur near and north of this front -- and farther west in the vicinity of the track of the aforementioned upper system. While a few lightning strikes may occur within the broader area of showers, coverage appears likely to remain too low to warrant inclusion of a 10% thunder area at this time. ..Goss.. 02/02/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Predominately zonal mid-level flow will persist over much of the CONUS D2/Monday. Low-amplitude ridging within the zonal flow should slowly build over the central Plains supporting relatively quiescent weather. While occasional gusty surface winds are expected near a lee trough across the High Plains, overall fire-weather conditions appear limited. ...Southern Plains... Occasional dry and breezy conditions will continue across the southern Plains through Day2/Monday. A lee low and cold front over west TX could support occasional gusts to 15 mph. Dry conditions should also persist, though stronger southerly flow should increase humidity gradually. Additional drying of fuels is likely with little to no precipitation expected. This could support localized fire-weather potential across the southern High Plains, but widespread concerns are not expected. ..Lyons.. 02/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Predominately zonal mid-level flow will persist over much of the CONUS D2/Monday. Low-amplitude ridging within the zonal flow should slowly build over the central Plains supporting relatively quiescent weather. While occasional gusty surface winds are expected near a lee trough across the High Plains, overall fire-weather conditions appear limited. ...Southern Plains... Occasional dry and breezy conditions will continue across the southern Plains through Day2/Monday. A lee low and cold front over west TX could support occasional gusts to 15 mph. Dry conditions should also persist, though stronger southerly flow should increase humidity gradually. Additional drying of fuels is likely with little to no precipitation expected. This could support localized fire-weather potential across the southern High Plains, but widespread concerns are not expected. ..Lyons.. 02/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Predominately zonal mid-level flow will persist over much of the CONUS D2/Monday. Low-amplitude ridging within the zonal flow should slowly build over the central Plains supporting relatively quiescent weather. While occasional gusty surface winds are expected near a lee trough across the High Plains, overall fire-weather conditions appear limited. ...Southern Plains... Occasional dry and breezy conditions will continue across the southern Plains through Day2/Monday. A lee low and cold front over west TX could support occasional gusts to 15 mph. Dry conditions should also persist, though stronger southerly flow should increase humidity gradually. Additional drying of fuels is likely with little to no precipitation expected. This could support localized fire-weather potential across the southern High Plains, but widespread concerns are not expected. ..Lyons.. 02/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Predominately zonal mid-level flow will persist over much of the CONUS D2/Monday. Low-amplitude ridging within the zonal flow should slowly build over the central Plains supporting relatively quiescent weather. While occasional gusty surface winds are expected near a lee trough across the High Plains, overall fire-weather conditions appear limited. ...Southern Plains... Occasional dry and breezy conditions will continue across the southern Plains through Day2/Monday. A lee low and cold front over west TX could support occasional gusts to 15 mph. Dry conditions should also persist, though stronger southerly flow should increase humidity gradually. Additional drying of fuels is likely with little to no precipitation expected. This could support localized fire-weather potential across the southern High Plains, but widespread concerns are not expected. ..Lyons.. 02/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Predominately zonal mid-level flow will persist over much of the CONUS D2/Monday. Low-amplitude ridging within the zonal flow should slowly build over the central Plains supporting relatively quiescent weather. While occasional gusty surface winds are expected near a lee trough across the High Plains, overall fire-weather conditions appear limited. ...Southern Plains... Occasional dry and breezy conditions will continue across the southern Plains through Day2/Monday. A lee low and cold front over west TX could support occasional gusts to 15 mph. Dry conditions should also persist, though stronger southerly flow should increase humidity gradually. Additional drying of fuels is likely with little to no precipitation expected. This could support localized fire-weather potential across the southern High Plains, but widespread concerns are not expected. ..Lyons.. 02/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Predominately zonal mid-level flow will persist over much of the CONUS D2/Monday. Low-amplitude ridging within the zonal flow should slowly build over the central Plains supporting relatively quiescent weather. While occasional gusty surface winds are expected near a lee trough across the High Plains, overall fire-weather conditions appear limited. ...Southern Plains... Occasional dry and breezy conditions will continue across the southern Plains through Day2/Monday. A lee low and cold front over west TX could support occasional gusts to 15 mph. Dry conditions should also persist, though stronger southerly flow should increase humidity gradually. Additional drying of fuels is likely with little to no precipitation expected. This could support localized fire-weather potential across the southern High Plains, but widespread concerns are not expected. ..Lyons.. 02/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Increasing zonal flow aloft over the Rockies will aide in deepening a lee trough over much of the High Plains. Coincident with warm temperatures and dry surface conditions, gusty winds could support some localized fire-weather risk. However, the lack of stronger winds, and more modest fuel receptiveness should limit greater fire-weather concerns. ...Southern High Plains... Dry and breezy conditions should continue today as the lee low/trough remains over the High Plains. Continued warm and dry conditions will support further curing of area fuels. Stronger, but displaced zonal flow aloft should keep surface wind speeds modest for much of that period across areas of the drier/more receptive fuels. Localized elevated fire-weather conditions are still possible from southeastern NM into West TX. However, conditions are not expected to be widespread enough to support an Elevated area. ..Lyons.. 02/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Increasing zonal flow aloft over the Rockies will aide in deepening a lee trough over much of the High Plains. Coincident with warm temperatures and dry surface conditions, gusty winds could support some localized fire-weather risk. However, the lack of stronger winds, and more modest fuel receptiveness should limit greater fire-weather concerns. ...Southern High Plains... Dry and breezy conditions should continue today as the lee low/trough remains over the High Plains. Continued warm and dry conditions will support further curing of area fuels. Stronger, but displaced zonal flow aloft should keep surface wind speeds modest for much of that period across areas of the drier/more receptive fuels. Localized elevated fire-weather conditions are still possible from southeastern NM into West TX. However, conditions are not expected to be widespread enough to support an Elevated area. ..Lyons.. 02/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Increasing zonal flow aloft over the Rockies will aide in deepening a lee trough over much of the High Plains. Coincident with warm temperatures and dry surface conditions, gusty winds could support some localized fire-weather risk. However, the lack of stronger winds, and more modest fuel receptiveness should limit greater fire-weather concerns. ...Southern High Plains... Dry and breezy conditions should continue today as the lee low/trough remains over the High Plains. Continued warm and dry conditions will support further curing of area fuels. Stronger, but displaced zonal flow aloft should keep surface wind speeds modest for much of that period across areas of the drier/more receptive fuels. Localized elevated fire-weather conditions are still possible from southeastern NM into West TX. However, conditions are not expected to be widespread enough to support an Elevated area. ..Lyons.. 02/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Increasing zonal flow aloft over the Rockies will aide in deepening a lee trough over much of the High Plains. Coincident with warm temperatures and dry surface conditions, gusty winds could support some localized fire-weather risk. However, the lack of stronger winds, and more modest fuel receptiveness should limit greater fire-weather concerns. ...Southern High Plains... Dry and breezy conditions should continue today as the lee low/trough remains over the High Plains. Continued warm and dry conditions will support further curing of area fuels. Stronger, but displaced zonal flow aloft should keep surface wind speeds modest for much of that period across areas of the drier/more receptive fuels. Localized elevated fire-weather conditions are still possible from southeastern NM into West TX. However, conditions are not expected to be widespread enough to support an Elevated area. ..Lyons.. 02/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Increasing zonal flow aloft over the Rockies will aide in deepening a lee trough over much of the High Plains. Coincident with warm temperatures and dry surface conditions, gusty winds could support some localized fire-weather risk. However, the lack of stronger winds, and more modest fuel receptiveness should limit greater fire-weather concerns. ...Southern High Plains... Dry and breezy conditions should continue today as the lee low/trough remains over the High Plains. Continued warm and dry conditions will support further curing of area fuels. Stronger, but displaced zonal flow aloft should keep surface wind speeds modest for much of that period across areas of the drier/more receptive fuels. Localized elevated fire-weather conditions are still possible from southeastern NM into West TX. However, conditions are not expected to be widespread enough to support an Elevated area. ..Lyons.. 02/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Minimal thunder potential is evident across the U.S. on Monday. ...Discussion... A zonal flow configuration aloft is forecast at the start of the Day 2 period across the U.S., but with weak amplification expected with time, as a weak low near the southwestern Canada coast deepens and retrogrades slowly southwestward. As this occurs, broader/weakly cyclonic flow will gradually evolve near and off the West Coast. In response, weak downstream ridging will occur over the central U.S., and troughing still further downstream, over the eastern states. At the surface, a cold front will shift eastward across eastern Canada and the Northeast, and southward across the Plains and Midwest. By late in the period, the front should extend from near the New England coast and Mid-Atlantic region west-southwestward to the southern Plains. While weak low-level theta-e advection is expected across the southern U.S. south of the cold front, it should remain insufficient to yield CAPE supportive of thunderstorm development. Meanwhile, Arctic air expanding southward across the northern U.S. will prove hostile to deep convection. Late in the period, short-wave troughing moving into California will likely support an increase in showers -- and potentially an embedded lightning flash or two near the central Coast. Overall potential however does not appear to warrant inclusion of a 10% thunder area at this time. ..Goss.. 02/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Minimal thunder potential is evident across the U.S. on Monday. ...Discussion... A zonal flow configuration aloft is forecast at the start of the Day 2 period across the U.S., but with weak amplification expected with time, as a weak low near the southwestern Canada coast deepens and retrogrades slowly southwestward. As this occurs, broader/weakly cyclonic flow will gradually evolve near and off the West Coast. In response, weak downstream ridging will occur over the central U.S., and troughing still further downstream, over the eastern states. At the surface, a cold front will shift eastward across eastern Canada and the Northeast, and southward across the Plains and Midwest. By late in the period, the front should extend from near the New England coast and Mid-Atlantic region west-southwestward to the southern Plains. While weak low-level theta-e advection is expected across the southern U.S. south of the cold front, it should remain insufficient to yield CAPE supportive of thunderstorm development. Meanwhile, Arctic air expanding southward across the northern U.S. will prove hostile to deep convection. Late in the period, short-wave troughing moving into California will likely support an increase in showers -- and potentially an embedded lightning flash or two near the central Coast. Overall potential however does not appear to warrant inclusion of a 10% thunder area at this time. ..Goss.. 02/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Minimal thunder potential is evident across the U.S. on Monday. ...Discussion... A zonal flow configuration aloft is forecast at the start of the Day 2 period across the U.S., but with weak amplification expected with time, as a weak low near the southwestern Canada coast deepens and retrogrades slowly southwestward. As this occurs, broader/weakly cyclonic flow will gradually evolve near and off the West Coast. In response, weak downstream ridging will occur over the central U.S., and troughing still further downstream, over the eastern states. At the surface, a cold front will shift eastward across eastern Canada and the Northeast, and southward across the Plains and Midwest. By late in the period, the front should extend from near the New England coast and Mid-Atlantic region west-southwestward to the southern Plains. While weak low-level theta-e advection is expected across the southern U.S. south of the cold front, it should remain insufficient to yield CAPE supportive of thunderstorm development. Meanwhile, Arctic air expanding southward across the northern U.S. will prove hostile to deep convection. Late in the period, short-wave troughing moving into California will likely support an increase in showers -- and potentially an embedded lightning flash or two near the central Coast. Overall potential however does not appear to warrant inclusion of a 10% thunder area at this time. ..Goss.. 02/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Minimal thunder potential is evident across the U.S. on Monday. ...Discussion... A zonal flow configuration aloft is forecast at the start of the Day 2 period across the U.S., but with weak amplification expected with time, as a weak low near the southwestern Canada coast deepens and retrogrades slowly southwestward. As this occurs, broader/weakly cyclonic flow will gradually evolve near and off the West Coast. In response, weak downstream ridging will occur over the central U.S., and troughing still further downstream, over the eastern states. At the surface, a cold front will shift eastward across eastern Canada and the Northeast, and southward across the Plains and Midwest. By late in the period, the front should extend from near the New England coast and Mid-Atlantic region west-southwestward to the southern Plains. While weak low-level theta-e advection is expected across the southern U.S. south of the cold front, it should remain insufficient to yield CAPE supportive of thunderstorm development. Meanwhile, Arctic air expanding southward across the northern U.S. will prove hostile to deep convection. Late in the period, short-wave troughing moving into California will likely support an increase in showers -- and potentially an embedded lightning flash or two near the central Coast. Overall potential however does not appear to warrant inclusion of a 10% thunder area at this time. ..Goss.. 02/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Minimal thunder potential is evident across the U.S. on Monday. ...Discussion... A zonal flow configuration aloft is forecast at the start of the Day 2 period across the U.S., but with weak amplification expected with time, as a weak low near the southwestern Canada coast deepens and retrogrades slowly southwestward. As this occurs, broader/weakly cyclonic flow will gradually evolve near and off the West Coast. In response, weak downstream ridging will occur over the central U.S., and troughing still further downstream, over the eastern states. At the surface, a cold front will shift eastward across eastern Canada and the Northeast, and southward across the Plains and Midwest. By late in the period, the front should extend from near the New England coast and Mid-Atlantic region west-southwestward to the southern Plains. While weak low-level theta-e advection is expected across the southern U.S. south of the cold front, it should remain insufficient to yield CAPE supportive of thunderstorm development. Meanwhile, Arctic air expanding southward across the northern U.S. will prove hostile to deep convection. Late in the period, short-wave troughing moving into California will likely support an increase in showers -- and potentially an embedded lightning flash or two near the central Coast. Overall potential however does not appear to warrant inclusion of a 10% thunder area at this time. ..Goss.. 02/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. today or tonight. ...DISCUSSION... Mid-level westerly flow will be in place today across the nation today as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves across the eastern U.S. At the surface, high pressure will remain entrenched over much of the central U.S. The relatively cool and dry air will make conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms through tonight. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 02/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. today or tonight. ...DISCUSSION... Mid-level westerly flow will be in place today across the nation today as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves across the eastern U.S. At the surface, high pressure will remain entrenched over much of the central U.S. The relatively cool and dry air will make conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms through tonight. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 02/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. today or tonight. ...DISCUSSION... Mid-level westerly flow will be in place today across the nation today as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves across the eastern U.S. At the surface, high pressure will remain entrenched over much of the central U.S. The relatively cool and dry air will make conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms through tonight. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 02/02/2025 Read more