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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0935 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are necessary, and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 02/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Increasing zonal flow aloft over the Rockies will aide in deepening a lee trough over much of the High Plains. Coincident with warm temperatures and dry surface conditions, gusty winds could support some localized fire-weather risk. However, the lack of stronger winds, and more modest fuel receptiveness should limit greater fire-weather concerns. ...Southern High Plains... Dry and breezy conditions should continue today as the lee low/trough remains over the High Plains. Continued warm and dry conditions will support further curing of area fuels. Stronger, but displaced zonal flow aloft should keep surface wind speeds modest for much of that period across areas of the drier/more receptive fuels. Localized elevated fire-weather conditions are still possible from southeastern NM into West TX. However, conditions are not expected to be widespread enough to support an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0935 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are necessary, and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 02/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Increasing zonal flow aloft over the Rockies will aide in deepening a lee trough over much of the High Plains. Coincident with warm temperatures and dry surface conditions, gusty winds could support some localized fire-weather risk. However, the lack of stronger winds, and more modest fuel receptiveness should limit greater fire-weather concerns. ...Southern High Plains... Dry and breezy conditions should continue today as the lee low/trough remains over the High Plains. Continued warm and dry conditions will support further curing of area fuels. Stronger, but displaced zonal flow aloft should keep surface wind speeds modest for much of that period across areas of the drier/more receptive fuels. Localized elevated fire-weather conditions are still possible from southeastern NM into West TX. However, conditions are not expected to be widespread enough to support an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0935 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are necessary, and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 02/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Increasing zonal flow aloft over the Rockies will aide in deepening a lee trough over much of the High Plains. Coincident with warm temperatures and dry surface conditions, gusty winds could support some localized fire-weather risk. However, the lack of stronger winds, and more modest fuel receptiveness should limit greater fire-weather concerns. ...Southern High Plains... Dry and breezy conditions should continue today as the lee low/trough remains over the High Plains. Continued warm and dry conditions will support further curing of area fuels. Stronger, but displaced zonal flow aloft should keep surface wind speeds modest for much of that period across areas of the drier/more receptive fuels. Localized elevated fire-weather conditions are still possible from southeastern NM into West TX. However, conditions are not expected to be widespread enough to support an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A series of mid-level shortwave troughs will traverse the northern tier of states within a low-amplitude, progressive flow pattern. A surface ridge will extend across the East into the central Gulf states with a lee trough over the High Plains. Stable conditions will prevail across the Lower 48 states such that thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Smith/Bentley.. 02/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A series of mid-level shortwave troughs will traverse the northern tier of states within a low-amplitude, progressive flow pattern. A surface ridge will extend across the East into the central Gulf states with a lee trough over the High Plains. Stable conditions will prevail across the Lower 48 states such that thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Smith/Bentley.. 02/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A series of mid-level shortwave troughs will traverse the northern tier of states within a low-amplitude, progressive flow pattern. A surface ridge will extend across the East into the central Gulf states with a lee trough over the High Plains. Stable conditions will prevail across the Lower 48 states such that thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Smith/Bentley.. 02/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A series of mid-level shortwave troughs will traverse the northern tier of states within a low-amplitude, progressive flow pattern. A surface ridge will extend across the East into the central Gulf states with a lee trough over the High Plains. Stable conditions will prevail across the Lower 48 states such that thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Smith/Bentley.. 02/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A series of mid-level shortwave troughs will traverse the northern tier of states within a low-amplitude, progressive flow pattern. A surface ridge will extend across the East into the central Gulf states with a lee trough over the High Plains. Stable conditions will prevail across the Lower 48 states such that thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Smith/Bentley.. 02/02/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Uncertainty remains high in the medium-range period, in terms of both pattern evolution, and attendant potential for severe weather. Models agree in general that early in the period, a quasi-zonal pattern aloft will prevail across the U.S., and a roughly west-to-east surface baroclinic zone will be in place from the central/southern Plains vicinity eastward to the Carolinas. Initially, any convective potential should remain limited, and largely confined to the cool side of the surface front. However, emerging model differences become evident, even early in the period, in terms of the eastward advance of various short-wave disturbances through the background westerlies. This progression of short-wave energy -- varying in degree from model to model -- results in correspondingly varying degrees of amplification of the flow field aloft, and also correspondingly, varying levels of mass response at the surface. Within the generally more amplified ECMWF, even early in the period but particularly through the middle and later stages of the forecast, likelihood for greater northward transport of higher theta-e air would exist, meaning greater potential for destabilization, and -- given flow aloft more than sufficient for organized convection -- greater potential for severe weather. With all of that said, given what appears to be a pattern of inherently low predictability, delineating areas of severe-weather potential would appear imprudent at this time, at the medium-range time frames. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Uncertainty remains high in the medium-range period, in terms of both pattern evolution, and attendant potential for severe weather. Models agree in general that early in the period, a quasi-zonal pattern aloft will prevail across the U.S., and a roughly west-to-east surface baroclinic zone will be in place from the central/southern Plains vicinity eastward to the Carolinas. Initially, any convective potential should remain limited, and largely confined to the cool side of the surface front. However, emerging model differences become evident, even early in the period, in terms of the eastward advance of various short-wave disturbances through the background westerlies. This progression of short-wave energy -- varying in degree from model to model -- results in correspondingly varying degrees of amplification of the flow field aloft, and also correspondingly, varying levels of mass response at the surface. Within the generally more amplified ECMWF, even early in the period but particularly through the middle and later stages of the forecast, likelihood for greater northward transport of higher theta-e air would exist, meaning greater potential for destabilization, and -- given flow aloft more than sufficient for organized convection -- greater potential for severe weather. With all of that said, given what appears to be a pattern of inherently low predictability, delineating areas of severe-weather potential would appear imprudent at this time, at the medium-range time frames. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Uncertainty remains high in the medium-range period, in terms of both pattern evolution, and attendant potential for severe weather. Models agree in general that early in the period, a quasi-zonal pattern aloft will prevail across the U.S., and a roughly west-to-east surface baroclinic zone will be in place from the central/southern Plains vicinity eastward to the Carolinas. Initially, any convective potential should remain limited, and largely confined to the cool side of the surface front. However, emerging model differences become evident, even early in the period, in terms of the eastward advance of various short-wave disturbances through the background westerlies. This progression of short-wave energy -- varying in degree from model to model -- results in correspondingly varying degrees of amplification of the flow field aloft, and also correspondingly, varying levels of mass response at the surface. Within the generally more amplified ECMWF, even early in the period but particularly through the middle and later stages of the forecast, likelihood for greater northward transport of higher theta-e air would exist, meaning greater potential for destabilization, and -- given flow aloft more than sufficient for organized convection -- greater potential for severe weather. With all of that said, given what appears to be a pattern of inherently low predictability, delineating areas of severe-weather potential would appear imprudent at this time, at the medium-range time frames. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Uncertainty remains high in the medium-range period, in terms of both pattern evolution, and attendant potential for severe weather. Models agree in general that early in the period, a quasi-zonal pattern aloft will prevail across the U.S., and a roughly west-to-east surface baroclinic zone will be in place from the central/southern Plains vicinity eastward to the Carolinas. Initially, any convective potential should remain limited, and largely confined to the cool side of the surface front. However, emerging model differences become evident, even early in the period, in terms of the eastward advance of various short-wave disturbances through the background westerlies. This progression of short-wave energy -- varying in degree from model to model -- results in correspondingly varying degrees of amplification of the flow field aloft, and also correspondingly, varying levels of mass response at the surface. Within the generally more amplified ECMWF, even early in the period but particularly through the middle and later stages of the forecast, likelihood for greater northward transport of higher theta-e air would exist, meaning greater potential for destabilization, and -- given flow aloft more than sufficient for organized convection -- greater potential for severe weather. With all of that said, given what appears to be a pattern of inherently low predictability, delineating areas of severe-weather potential would appear imprudent at this time, at the medium-range time frames. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Uncertainty remains high in the medium-range period, in terms of both pattern evolution, and attendant potential for severe weather. Models agree in general that early in the period, a quasi-zonal pattern aloft will prevail across the U.S., and a roughly west-to-east surface baroclinic zone will be in place from the central/southern Plains vicinity eastward to the Carolinas. Initially, any convective potential should remain limited, and largely confined to the cool side of the surface front. However, emerging model differences become evident, even early in the period, in terms of the eastward advance of various short-wave disturbances through the background westerlies. This progression of short-wave energy -- varying in degree from model to model -- results in correspondingly varying degrees of amplification of the flow field aloft, and also correspondingly, varying levels of mass response at the surface. Within the generally more amplified ECMWF, even early in the period but particularly through the middle and later stages of the forecast, likelihood for greater northward transport of higher theta-e air would exist, meaning greater potential for destabilization, and -- given flow aloft more than sufficient for organized convection -- greater potential for severe weather. With all of that said, given what appears to be a pattern of inherently low predictability, delineating areas of severe-weather potential would appear imprudent at this time, at the medium-range time frames. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low overall on Tuesday. ...Discussion... Little change in the overall upper pattern over the U.S. is forecast Tuesday, with low-amplitude westerly flow forecast to prevail, while the upper low off the northwestern U.S. coast lingers in place. A subtle short-wave trough embedded in the mid-level westerly flow is progged to cross California and the Great Basin/Desert Southwest with time, reaching the central High Plains late. At the surface, a cold front will remain draped from west to east from the southern Plains to the Carolinas. A few showers may occur near and north of this front -- and farther west in the vicinity of the track of the aforementioned upper system. While a few lightning strikes may occur within the broader area of showers, coverage appears likely to remain too low to warrant inclusion of a 10% thunder area at this time. ..Goss.. 02/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low overall on Tuesday. ...Discussion... Little change in the overall upper pattern over the U.S. is forecast Tuesday, with low-amplitude westerly flow forecast to prevail, while the upper low off the northwestern U.S. coast lingers in place. A subtle short-wave trough embedded in the mid-level westerly flow is progged to cross California and the Great Basin/Desert Southwest with time, reaching the central High Plains late. At the surface, a cold front will remain draped from west to east from the southern Plains to the Carolinas. A few showers may occur near and north of this front -- and farther west in the vicinity of the track of the aforementioned upper system. While a few lightning strikes may occur within the broader area of showers, coverage appears likely to remain too low to warrant inclusion of a 10% thunder area at this time. ..Goss.. 02/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low overall on Tuesday. ...Discussion... Little change in the overall upper pattern over the U.S. is forecast Tuesday, with low-amplitude westerly flow forecast to prevail, while the upper low off the northwestern U.S. coast lingers in place. A subtle short-wave trough embedded in the mid-level westerly flow is progged to cross California and the Great Basin/Desert Southwest with time, reaching the central High Plains late. At the surface, a cold front will remain draped from west to east from the southern Plains to the Carolinas. A few showers may occur near and north of this front -- and farther west in the vicinity of the track of the aforementioned upper system. While a few lightning strikes may occur within the broader area of showers, coverage appears likely to remain too low to warrant inclusion of a 10% thunder area at this time. ..Goss.. 02/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low overall on Tuesday. ...Discussion... Little change in the overall upper pattern over the U.S. is forecast Tuesday, with low-amplitude westerly flow forecast to prevail, while the upper low off the northwestern U.S. coast lingers in place. A subtle short-wave trough embedded in the mid-level westerly flow is progged to cross California and the Great Basin/Desert Southwest with time, reaching the central High Plains late. At the surface, a cold front will remain draped from west to east from the southern Plains to the Carolinas. A few showers may occur near and north of this front -- and farther west in the vicinity of the track of the aforementioned upper system. While a few lightning strikes may occur within the broader area of showers, coverage appears likely to remain too low to warrant inclusion of a 10% thunder area at this time. ..Goss.. 02/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low overall on Tuesday. ...Discussion... Little change in the overall upper pattern over the U.S. is forecast Tuesday, with low-amplitude westerly flow forecast to prevail, while the upper low off the northwestern U.S. coast lingers in place. A subtle short-wave trough embedded in the mid-level westerly flow is progged to cross California and the Great Basin/Desert Southwest with time, reaching the central High Plains late. At the surface, a cold front will remain draped from west to east from the southern Plains to the Carolinas. A few showers may occur near and north of this front -- and farther west in the vicinity of the track of the aforementioned upper system. While a few lightning strikes may occur within the broader area of showers, coverage appears likely to remain too low to warrant inclusion of a 10% thunder area at this time. ..Goss.. 02/02/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Predominately zonal mid-level flow will persist over much of the CONUS D2/Monday. Low-amplitude ridging within the zonal flow should slowly build over the central Plains supporting relatively quiescent weather. While occasional gusty surface winds are expected near a lee trough across the High Plains, overall fire-weather conditions appear limited. ...Southern Plains... Occasional dry and breezy conditions will continue across the southern Plains through Day2/Monday. A lee low and cold front over west TX could support occasional gusts to 15 mph. Dry conditions should also persist, though stronger southerly flow should increase humidity gradually. Additional drying of fuels is likely with little to no precipitation expected. This could support localized fire-weather potential across the southern High Plains, but widespread concerns are not expected. ..Lyons.. 02/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Predominately zonal mid-level flow will persist over much of the CONUS D2/Monday. Low-amplitude ridging within the zonal flow should slowly build over the central Plains supporting relatively quiescent weather. While occasional gusty surface winds are expected near a lee trough across the High Plains, overall fire-weather conditions appear limited. ...Southern Plains... Occasional dry and breezy conditions will continue across the southern Plains through Day2/Monday. A lee low and cold front over west TX could support occasional gusts to 15 mph. Dry conditions should also persist, though stronger southerly flow should increase humidity gradually. Additional drying of fuels is likely with little to no precipitation expected. This could support localized fire-weather potential across the southern High Plains, but widespread concerns are not expected. ..Lyons.. 02/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more