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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 PM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of Tennessee and Kentucky. ...Tennessee/Kentucky... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the central U.S. today, as an associated jet streak translates eastward through the central Plains. In response, a low-level jet will gradually strengthen across the Ozarks today. At the surface, a warm front will move northward across the Tennessee Valley this afternoon and into the Ohio Valley this evening. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and to the south of the warm front near the eastern edge of the low-level jet. This convection is forecast to expand in coverage as large-scale ascent increases ahead of the approaching trough. Surface dewpoints near the front should be in the 50s F, with instability remaining weak during the day due to abundant cloud cover. In spite of this, deep-layer shear will be strong, with a notable increase in shear taking place as the exit region of the mid-level jet overspreads the Ohio Valley early this evening. RAP forecast soundings near the warm front from 00Z to 02Z/Thursday across southern Kentucky and northern Tennessee have MUCAPE between 500 and 1000 J/kg, 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot range, and 700 to 500 mb lapse rates approaching 7 C/km. This environment could be enough for an isolated severe threat. If surface-based cells can initiate near or to the south of the front, a few severe gusts and a brief tornado spinup would be possible. However, a near-surface inversion is present on many of the forecast soundings along the warm front. This will likely be a negative factor for the severe threat, keeping any severe potential localized and marginal. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 02/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 PM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of Tennessee and Kentucky. ...Tennessee/Kentucky... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the central U.S. today, as an associated jet streak translates eastward through the central Plains. In response, a low-level jet will gradually strengthen across the Ozarks today. At the surface, a warm front will move northward across the Tennessee Valley this afternoon and into the Ohio Valley this evening. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and to the south of the warm front near the eastern edge of the low-level jet. This convection is forecast to expand in coverage as large-scale ascent increases ahead of the approaching trough. Surface dewpoints near the front should be in the 50s F, with instability remaining weak during the day due to abundant cloud cover. In spite of this, deep-layer shear will be strong, with a notable increase in shear taking place as the exit region of the mid-level jet overspreads the Ohio Valley early this evening. RAP forecast soundings near the warm front from 00Z to 02Z/Thursday across southern Kentucky and northern Tennessee have MUCAPE between 500 and 1000 J/kg, 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot range, and 700 to 500 mb lapse rates approaching 7 C/km. This environment could be enough for an isolated severe threat. If surface-based cells can initiate near or to the south of the front, a few severe gusts and a brief tornado spinup would be possible. However, a near-surface inversion is present on many of the forecast soundings along the warm front. This will likely be a negative factor for the severe threat, keeping any severe potential localized and marginal. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 02/05/2025 Read more

The Monticello City Council discussed drought concerns and fire risks at their January 28 meeting. Members approved a letter to residents encouraging the reduction of fire hazards on personal property, given the increase in fire risk with the dry winter. The public was also urged to be mindful of their water use. San Juan Record (Monticello, Utah), Feb 4, 2025

Native oak trees in northern Illinois were declining due to dryness. CBS Chicago (Ill.), Feb 4, 2025

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 PM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this evening across parts of north-central California, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... On water vapor imagery, a ridge is located in the central U.S. with a trough near the West Coast. Ahead of the trough, an area of widespread rainfall will continue to move inland across central and northern California this evening. Large-scale ascent and steep mid-level lapse rates may be enough for isolated lightning strikes from near San Francisco eastward into the Sierras. No severe weather is expected across the continental U.S. through tonight. ..Broyles.. 02/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 PM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this evening across parts of north-central California, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... On water vapor imagery, a ridge is located in the central U.S. with a trough near the West Coast. Ahead of the trough, an area of widespread rainfall will continue to move inland across central and northern California this evening. Large-scale ascent and steep mid-level lapse rates may be enough for isolated lightning strikes from near San Francisco eastward into the Sierras. No severe weather is expected across the continental U.S. through tonight. ..Broyles.. 02/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 PM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this evening across parts of north-central California, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... On water vapor imagery, a ridge is located in the central U.S. with a trough near the West Coast. Ahead of the trough, an area of widespread rainfall will continue to move inland across central and northern California this evening. Large-scale ascent and steep mid-level lapse rates may be enough for isolated lightning strikes from near San Francisco eastward into the Sierras. No severe weather is expected across the continental U.S. through tonight. ..Broyles.. 02/05/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Feb 4 22:39:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Feb 4 22:39:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z Fire weather concerns will remain focused across the southern High Plains through the upcoming weekend. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to suggest that dry conditions will prevail across the southern High Plains for the next several days as an anomalously strong upper-level ridge over the south-central CONUS gradually breaks down. Periods of breezy conditions are anticipated as low-amplitude upper disturbances traverse the central Rockies through the late week/weekend period. Modest lee troughing will promote westerly downslope winds off the central/southern Rockies. The combination of dry air advection and downslope warming/drying will help maintain a dry air mass with daily RH minimums in the teens to low 20s. While localized elevated conditions appear possible each day during the D3/Thu through D5/Sat period, ensemble guidance suggests the strongest lee trough/cyclone will likely develop on D4/Fri afternoon across eastern CO, supporting a higher probability for achieving critical (20+ mph) winds across eastern NM and parts of western TX. A cold frontal passage on D6/Sun will usher in a cold continental air mass to much of the central/southern Plains, limiting further fire concerns heading into early next week. ..Moore.. 02/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z Fire weather concerns will remain focused across the southern High Plains through the upcoming weekend. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to suggest that dry conditions will prevail across the southern High Plains for the next several days as an anomalously strong upper-level ridge over the south-central CONUS gradually breaks down. Periods of breezy conditions are anticipated as low-amplitude upper disturbances traverse the central Rockies through the late week/weekend period. Modest lee troughing will promote westerly downslope winds off the central/southern Rockies. The combination of dry air advection and downslope warming/drying will help maintain a dry air mass with daily RH minimums in the teens to low 20s. While localized elevated conditions appear possible each day during the D3/Thu through D5/Sat period, ensemble guidance suggests the strongest lee trough/cyclone will likely develop on D4/Fri afternoon across eastern CO, supporting a higher probability for achieving critical (20+ mph) winds across eastern NM and parts of western TX. A cold frontal passage on D6/Sun will usher in a cold continental air mass to much of the central/southern Plains, limiting further fire concerns heading into early next week. ..Moore.. 02/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z Fire weather concerns will remain focused across the southern High Plains through the upcoming weekend. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to suggest that dry conditions will prevail across the southern High Plains for the next several days as an anomalously strong upper-level ridge over the south-central CONUS gradually breaks down. Periods of breezy conditions are anticipated as low-amplitude upper disturbances traverse the central Rockies through the late week/weekend period. Modest lee troughing will promote westerly downslope winds off the central/southern Rockies. The combination of dry air advection and downslope warming/drying will help maintain a dry air mass with daily RH minimums in the teens to low 20s. While localized elevated conditions appear possible each day during the D3/Thu through D5/Sat period, ensemble guidance suggests the strongest lee trough/cyclone will likely develop on D4/Fri afternoon across eastern CO, supporting a higher probability for achieving critical (20+ mph) winds across eastern NM and parts of western TX. A cold frontal passage on D6/Sun will usher in a cold continental air mass to much of the central/southern Plains, limiting further fire concerns heading into early next week. ..Moore.. 02/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z Fire weather concerns will remain focused across the southern High Plains through the upcoming weekend. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to suggest that dry conditions will prevail across the southern High Plains for the next several days as an anomalously strong upper-level ridge over the south-central CONUS gradually breaks down. Periods of breezy conditions are anticipated as low-amplitude upper disturbances traverse the central Rockies through the late week/weekend period. Modest lee troughing will promote westerly downslope winds off the central/southern Rockies. The combination of dry air advection and downslope warming/drying will help maintain a dry air mass with daily RH minimums in the teens to low 20s. While localized elevated conditions appear possible each day during the D3/Thu through D5/Sat period, ensemble guidance suggests the strongest lee trough/cyclone will likely develop on D4/Fri afternoon across eastern CO, supporting a higher probability for achieving critical (20+ mph) winds across eastern NM and parts of western TX. A cold frontal passage on D6/Sun will usher in a cold continental air mass to much of the central/southern Plains, limiting further fire concerns heading into early next week. ..Moore.. 02/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z Fire weather concerns will remain focused across the southern High Plains through the upcoming weekend. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to suggest that dry conditions will prevail across the southern High Plains for the next several days as an anomalously strong upper-level ridge over the south-central CONUS gradually breaks down. Periods of breezy conditions are anticipated as low-amplitude upper disturbances traverse the central Rockies through the late week/weekend period. Modest lee troughing will promote westerly downslope winds off the central/southern Rockies. The combination of dry air advection and downslope warming/drying will help maintain a dry air mass with daily RH minimums in the teens to low 20s. While localized elevated conditions appear possible each day during the D3/Thu through D5/Sat period, ensemble guidance suggests the strongest lee trough/cyclone will likely develop on D4/Fri afternoon across eastern CO, supporting a higher probability for achieving critical (20+ mph) winds across eastern NM and parts of western TX. A cold frontal passage on D6/Sun will usher in a cold continental air mass to much of the central/southern Plains, limiting further fire concerns heading into early next week. ..Moore.. 02/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across northern/central California this afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough continues to approach the CA coastline, along with cooler temperatures aloft, which are poised to overspread a marginally warm and moist low-level airmass later this evening and tonight. A broad precipitation band, with embedded low-topped convection, is still expected to traverse central CA with the aforementioned cooler temperatures aloft, supporting scant buoyancy and the chance for a few lightning flashes. A couple of lightning flashes also cannot be ruled out over portions of the Intermountain West or the WA/OR coastline, as mid-level impulses pass over these regions later tonight. Even so, overall lack of buoyancy suggests that lightning flashes in these regions should remain too sparse to warrant thunder probabilities at this time. ..Squitieri.. 02/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025/ ...Northern/Central CA... Morning water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough approaching the coast of northern CA. An associated surface cold front is also moving southeastward into northern CA, with an increasingly large shield of showers along/ahead of the front. Forecast soundings show the development of very weak CAPE later today, which could result in a few lightning flashes within the embedded precip shield. No severe storms are expected. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across northern/central California this afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough continues to approach the CA coastline, along with cooler temperatures aloft, which are poised to overspread a marginally warm and moist low-level airmass later this evening and tonight. A broad precipitation band, with embedded low-topped convection, is still expected to traverse central CA with the aforementioned cooler temperatures aloft, supporting scant buoyancy and the chance for a few lightning flashes. A couple of lightning flashes also cannot be ruled out over portions of the Intermountain West or the WA/OR coastline, as mid-level impulses pass over these regions later tonight. Even so, overall lack of buoyancy suggests that lightning flashes in these regions should remain too sparse to warrant thunder probabilities at this time. ..Squitieri.. 02/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025/ ...Northern/Central CA... Morning water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough approaching the coast of northern CA. An associated surface cold front is also moving southeastward into northern CA, with an increasingly large shield of showers along/ahead of the front. Forecast soundings show the development of very weak CAPE later today, which could result in a few lightning flashes within the embedded precip shield. No severe storms are expected. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across northern/central California this afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough continues to approach the CA coastline, along with cooler temperatures aloft, which are poised to overspread a marginally warm and moist low-level airmass later this evening and tonight. A broad precipitation band, with embedded low-topped convection, is still expected to traverse central CA with the aforementioned cooler temperatures aloft, supporting scant buoyancy and the chance for a few lightning flashes. A couple of lightning flashes also cannot be ruled out over portions of the Intermountain West or the WA/OR coastline, as mid-level impulses pass over these regions later tonight. Even so, overall lack of buoyancy suggests that lightning flashes in these regions should remain too sparse to warrant thunder probabilities at this time. ..Squitieri.. 02/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025/ ...Northern/Central CA... Morning water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough approaching the coast of northern CA. An associated surface cold front is also moving southeastward into northern CA, with an increasingly large shield of showers along/ahead of the front. Forecast soundings show the development of very weak CAPE later today, which could result in a few lightning flashes within the embedded precip shield. No severe storms are expected. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across northern/central California this afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough continues to approach the CA coastline, along with cooler temperatures aloft, which are poised to overspread a marginally warm and moist low-level airmass later this evening and tonight. A broad precipitation band, with embedded low-topped convection, is still expected to traverse central CA with the aforementioned cooler temperatures aloft, supporting scant buoyancy and the chance for a few lightning flashes. A couple of lightning flashes also cannot be ruled out over portions of the Intermountain West or the WA/OR coastline, as mid-level impulses pass over these regions later tonight. Even so, overall lack of buoyancy suggests that lightning flashes in these regions should remain too sparse to warrant thunder probabilities at this time. ..Squitieri.. 02/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025/ ...Northern/Central CA... Morning water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough approaching the coast of northern CA. An associated surface cold front is also moving southeastward into northern CA, with an increasingly large shield of showers along/ahead of the front. Forecast soundings show the development of very weak CAPE later today, which could result in a few lightning flashes within the embedded precip shield. No severe storms are expected. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across northern/central California this afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough continues to approach the CA coastline, along with cooler temperatures aloft, which are poised to overspread a marginally warm and moist low-level airmass later this evening and tonight. A broad precipitation band, with embedded low-topped convection, is still expected to traverse central CA with the aforementioned cooler temperatures aloft, supporting scant buoyancy and the chance for a few lightning flashes. A couple of lightning flashes also cannot be ruled out over portions of the Intermountain West or the WA/OR coastline, as mid-level impulses pass over these regions later tonight. Even so, overall lack of buoyancy suggests that lightning flashes in these regions should remain too sparse to warrant thunder probabilities at this time. ..Squitieri.. 02/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025/ ...Northern/Central CA... Morning water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough approaching the coast of northern CA. An associated surface cold front is also moving southeastward into northern CA, with an increasingly large shield of showers along/ahead of the front. Forecast soundings show the development of very weak CAPE later today, which could result in a few lightning flashes within the embedded precip shield. No severe storms are expected. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 PM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not expected across the U.S. on Thursday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A low-amplitude wave will quickly move out of the upper OH Valley and weaken as it moves into the Northeast. Behind this feature, a strong shortwave trough will move eastward across the Great Lakes. To the west, a trough will drop south toward CA then move across the Great Basin and into the central Rockies by Saturday morning. At the surface, high pressure will remain over the Southeast, but a low-level moist plume will remain ahead of a cold front from KY into WV. Western parts of this front will stall as low pressure quickly moves from OH across southern New England. Rain and primarily elevated thunderstorms are expected from the OH valley eastward toward the Mid Atlantic, as westerly flow brings midlevel moisture eastward. However, drying will occur rapidly behind the shortwave trough. ..Jewell.. 02/04/2025 Read more