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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... Continued, largely zonal, mid-level flow is expected across the central and western US D2/Thursday. Several embedded perturbations are forecast to move over the Rockies, enhancing lee troughing and surface winds over the Southwest. Continued warm/dry conditions, bolstered by increasing winds, should support several hours of elevated to near-critical fire-weather concerns. ...Southern High Plains and Southwest... Periods of breezy conditions are anticipated as low-amplitude upper disturbances and strong westerly flow aloft traverse the central Rockies. Modest lee troughing will encourage westerly downslope winds of 15-25 mph off the central/southern Rockies over much of AZ and NM. Continued dry and warm conditions, aided by deep mixing, will keep humidity below 15% over much of the area. With several days of drying, fuels will likely continue to become more receptive to fire spread. Recent model guidance has trended windier and drier across much of the Southwest. A few hours of locally critical fire-weather conditions also appear possible within areas of stronger terrain-enhanced wind gusts. However, confidence in widespread critical conditions is relatively low, given the more limited overlap of the stronger winds, low humidity and more receptive fuels. ..Lyons.. 02/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... Continued, largely zonal, mid-level flow is expected across the central and western US D2/Thursday. Several embedded perturbations are forecast to move over the Rockies, enhancing lee troughing and surface winds over the Southwest. Continued warm/dry conditions, bolstered by increasing winds, should support several hours of elevated to near-critical fire-weather concerns. ...Southern High Plains and Southwest... Periods of breezy conditions are anticipated as low-amplitude upper disturbances and strong westerly flow aloft traverse the central Rockies. Modest lee troughing will encourage westerly downslope winds of 15-25 mph off the central/southern Rockies over much of AZ and NM. Continued dry and warm conditions, aided by deep mixing, will keep humidity below 15% over much of the area. With several days of drying, fuels will likely continue to become more receptive to fire spread. Recent model guidance has trended windier and drier across much of the Southwest. A few hours of locally critical fire-weather conditions also appear possible within areas of stronger terrain-enhanced wind gusts. However, confidence in widespread critical conditions is relatively low, given the more limited overlap of the stronger winds, low humidity and more receptive fuels. ..Lyons.. 02/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... Continued, largely zonal, mid-level flow is expected across the central and western US D2/Thursday. Several embedded perturbations are forecast to move over the Rockies, enhancing lee troughing and surface winds over the Southwest. Continued warm/dry conditions, bolstered by increasing winds, should support several hours of elevated to near-critical fire-weather concerns. ...Southern High Plains and Southwest... Periods of breezy conditions are anticipated as low-amplitude upper disturbances and strong westerly flow aloft traverse the central Rockies. Modest lee troughing will encourage westerly downslope winds of 15-25 mph off the central/southern Rockies over much of AZ and NM. Continued dry and warm conditions, aided by deep mixing, will keep humidity below 15% over much of the area. With several days of drying, fuels will likely continue to become more receptive to fire spread. Recent model guidance has trended windier and drier across much of the Southwest. A few hours of locally critical fire-weather conditions also appear possible within areas of stronger terrain-enhanced wind gusts. However, confidence in widespread critical conditions is relatively low, given the more limited overlap of the stronger winds, low humidity and more receptive fuels. ..Lyons.. 02/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... Continued, largely zonal, mid-level flow is expected across the central and western US D2/Thursday. Several embedded perturbations are forecast to move over the Rockies, enhancing lee troughing and surface winds over the Southwest. Continued warm/dry conditions, bolstered by increasing winds, should support several hours of elevated to near-critical fire-weather concerns. ...Southern High Plains and Southwest... Periods of breezy conditions are anticipated as low-amplitude upper disturbances and strong westerly flow aloft traverse the central Rockies. Modest lee troughing will encourage westerly downslope winds of 15-25 mph off the central/southern Rockies over much of AZ and NM. Continued dry and warm conditions, aided by deep mixing, will keep humidity below 15% over much of the area. With several days of drying, fuels will likely continue to become more receptive to fire spread. Recent model guidance has trended windier and drier across much of the Southwest. A few hours of locally critical fire-weather conditions also appear possible within areas of stronger terrain-enhanced wind gusts. However, confidence in widespread critical conditions is relatively low, given the more limited overlap of the stronger winds, low humidity and more receptive fuels. ..Lyons.. 02/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... Continued, largely zonal, mid-level flow is expected across the central and western US D2/Thursday. Several embedded perturbations are forecast to move over the Rockies, enhancing lee troughing and surface winds over the Southwest. Continued warm/dry conditions, bolstered by increasing winds, should support several hours of elevated to near-critical fire-weather concerns. ...Southern High Plains and Southwest... Periods of breezy conditions are anticipated as low-amplitude upper disturbances and strong westerly flow aloft traverse the central Rockies. Modest lee troughing will encourage westerly downslope winds of 15-25 mph off the central/southern Rockies over much of AZ and NM. Continued dry and warm conditions, aided by deep mixing, will keep humidity below 15% over much of the area. With several days of drying, fuels will likely continue to become more receptive to fire spread. Recent model guidance has trended windier and drier across much of the Southwest. A few hours of locally critical fire-weather conditions also appear possible within areas of stronger terrain-enhanced wind gusts. However, confidence in widespread critical conditions is relatively low, given the more limited overlap of the stronger winds, low humidity and more receptive fuels. ..Lyons.. 02/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough, embedded within stronger westerly flow, will cross the Rockies and eject over the Plains through the forecast period. In response to the increase in flow aloft, a surface low will move eastward from the Great Basin and intensify in the lee of the Rockies. This will support periods of strong winds and low humidity over parts of the Southwest and High Plains. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible. ...High Plains and Southwest... As the upper trough crosses the Rockies, low-level westerly winds are expected to increase across central NM and parts of eastern AZ, scouring out a shallow cold air mass from a stalled cold front farther east. Aided by the increasing flow aloft, surface winds of 15-25 mph and higher gusts are likely, especially through terrain-favored areas across central NM. Ample heating/mixing should promote RH reductions into the teens to upper single digits. The combination of increasing winds with falling RH over areas of rapidly drying fuels should allow for sustained elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ..Lyons.. 02/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough, embedded within stronger westerly flow, will cross the Rockies and eject over the Plains through the forecast period. In response to the increase in flow aloft, a surface low will move eastward from the Great Basin and intensify in the lee of the Rockies. This will support periods of strong winds and low humidity over parts of the Southwest and High Plains. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible. ...High Plains and Southwest... As the upper trough crosses the Rockies, low-level westerly winds are expected to increase across central NM and parts of eastern AZ, scouring out a shallow cold air mass from a stalled cold front farther east. Aided by the increasing flow aloft, surface winds of 15-25 mph and higher gusts are likely, especially through terrain-favored areas across central NM. Ample heating/mixing should promote RH reductions into the teens to upper single digits. The combination of increasing winds with falling RH over areas of rapidly drying fuels should allow for sustained elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ..Lyons.. 02/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough, embedded within stronger westerly flow, will cross the Rockies and eject over the Plains through the forecast period. In response to the increase in flow aloft, a surface low will move eastward from the Great Basin and intensify in the lee of the Rockies. This will support periods of strong winds and low humidity over parts of the Southwest and High Plains. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible. ...High Plains and Southwest... As the upper trough crosses the Rockies, low-level westerly winds are expected to increase across central NM and parts of eastern AZ, scouring out a shallow cold air mass from a stalled cold front farther east. Aided by the increasing flow aloft, surface winds of 15-25 mph and higher gusts are likely, especially through terrain-favored areas across central NM. Ample heating/mixing should promote RH reductions into the teens to upper single digits. The combination of increasing winds with falling RH over areas of rapidly drying fuels should allow for sustained elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ..Lyons.. 02/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough, embedded within stronger westerly flow, will cross the Rockies and eject over the Plains through the forecast period. In response to the increase in flow aloft, a surface low will move eastward from the Great Basin and intensify in the lee of the Rockies. This will support periods of strong winds and low humidity over parts of the Southwest and High Plains. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible. ...High Plains and Southwest... As the upper trough crosses the Rockies, low-level westerly winds are expected to increase across central NM and parts of eastern AZ, scouring out a shallow cold air mass from a stalled cold front farther east. Aided by the increasing flow aloft, surface winds of 15-25 mph and higher gusts are likely, especially through terrain-favored areas across central NM. Ample heating/mixing should promote RH reductions into the teens to upper single digits. The combination of increasing winds with falling RH over areas of rapidly drying fuels should allow for sustained elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ..Lyons.. 02/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough, embedded within stronger westerly flow, will cross the Rockies and eject over the Plains through the forecast period. In response to the increase in flow aloft, a surface low will move eastward from the Great Basin and intensify in the lee of the Rockies. This will support periods of strong winds and low humidity over parts of the Southwest and High Plains. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible. ...High Plains and Southwest... As the upper trough crosses the Rockies, low-level westerly winds are expected to increase across central NM and parts of eastern AZ, scouring out a shallow cold air mass from a stalled cold front farther east. Aided by the increasing flow aloft, surface winds of 15-25 mph and higher gusts are likely, especially through terrain-favored areas across central NM. Ample heating/mixing should promote RH reductions into the teens to upper single digits. The combination of increasing winds with falling RH over areas of rapidly drying fuels should allow for sustained elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ..Lyons.. 02/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not expected across the U.S. on Thursday. ...Discussion... Zonal flow aloft will broadly persist across the U.S. Thursday, with the two main features being a short-wave trough pivoting toward -- and eventually into -- the Pacific Northwest, and a second that will cross Ontario/Quebec and the Great Lakes region through the period. Meanwhile, a much weaker/more subtle disturbance will move out of the Pacific and across California early, and then continue eastward across the Four Corners states, and eventually -- by the end of the period -- emerge into the Plains. At the surface, a weak frontal wave should move across the central Appalachians and then off the New England coast by evening, while the trailing cold front makes only slow southward progress across the Southeast and Southern Plains through the period. Showers and possibly a few weak thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period, from the Tennessee Valley into the Mid-Atlantic region. Weak convective activity will likely continue during the period, along the aforementioned surface front as it sags southward. However, weak instability forecast across the region should substantially hinder appreciable severe risk. At this time, it appears that a stronger, elevated afternoon storm or two, evolving over the North Carolina vicinity, possibly capable of producing hail. However, overall risk for any hail exceeding 1" in diameter appears too small at this time to introduce a MRGL risk area. ..Goss.. 02/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not expected across the U.S. on Thursday. ...Discussion... Zonal flow aloft will broadly persist across the U.S. Thursday, with the two main features being a short-wave trough pivoting toward -- and eventually into -- the Pacific Northwest, and a second that will cross Ontario/Quebec and the Great Lakes region through the period. Meanwhile, a much weaker/more subtle disturbance will move out of the Pacific and across California early, and then continue eastward across the Four Corners states, and eventually -- by the end of the period -- emerge into the Plains. At the surface, a weak frontal wave should move across the central Appalachians and then off the New England coast by evening, while the trailing cold front makes only slow southward progress across the Southeast and Southern Plains through the period. Showers and possibly a few weak thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period, from the Tennessee Valley into the Mid-Atlantic region. Weak convective activity will likely continue during the period, along the aforementioned surface front as it sags southward. However, weak instability forecast across the region should substantially hinder appreciable severe risk. At this time, it appears that a stronger, elevated afternoon storm or two, evolving over the North Carolina vicinity, possibly capable of producing hail. However, overall risk for any hail exceeding 1" in diameter appears too small at this time to introduce a MRGL risk area. ..Goss.. 02/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not expected across the U.S. on Thursday. ...Discussion... Zonal flow aloft will broadly persist across the U.S. Thursday, with the two main features being a short-wave trough pivoting toward -- and eventually into -- the Pacific Northwest, and a second that will cross Ontario/Quebec and the Great Lakes region through the period. Meanwhile, a much weaker/more subtle disturbance will move out of the Pacific and across California early, and then continue eastward across the Four Corners states, and eventually -- by the end of the period -- emerge into the Plains. At the surface, a weak frontal wave should move across the central Appalachians and then off the New England coast by evening, while the trailing cold front makes only slow southward progress across the Southeast and Southern Plains through the period. Showers and possibly a few weak thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period, from the Tennessee Valley into the Mid-Atlantic region. Weak convective activity will likely continue during the period, along the aforementioned surface front as it sags southward. However, weak instability forecast across the region should substantially hinder appreciable severe risk. At this time, it appears that a stronger, elevated afternoon storm or two, evolving over the North Carolina vicinity, possibly capable of producing hail. However, overall risk for any hail exceeding 1" in diameter appears too small at this time to introduce a MRGL risk area. ..Goss.. 02/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not expected across the U.S. on Thursday. ...Discussion... Zonal flow aloft will broadly persist across the U.S. Thursday, with the two main features being a short-wave trough pivoting toward -- and eventually into -- the Pacific Northwest, and a second that will cross Ontario/Quebec and the Great Lakes region through the period. Meanwhile, a much weaker/more subtle disturbance will move out of the Pacific and across California early, and then continue eastward across the Four Corners states, and eventually -- by the end of the period -- emerge into the Plains. At the surface, a weak frontal wave should move across the central Appalachians and then off the New England coast by evening, while the trailing cold front makes only slow southward progress across the Southeast and Southern Plains through the period. Showers and possibly a few weak thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period, from the Tennessee Valley into the Mid-Atlantic region. Weak convective activity will likely continue during the period, along the aforementioned surface front as it sags southward. However, weak instability forecast across the region should substantially hinder appreciable severe risk. At this time, it appears that a stronger, elevated afternoon storm or two, evolving over the North Carolina vicinity, possibly capable of producing hail. However, overall risk for any hail exceeding 1" in diameter appears too small at this time to introduce a MRGL risk area. ..Goss.. 02/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not expected across the U.S. on Thursday. ...Discussion... Zonal flow aloft will broadly persist across the U.S. Thursday, with the two main features being a short-wave trough pivoting toward -- and eventually into -- the Pacific Northwest, and a second that will cross Ontario/Quebec and the Great Lakes region through the period. Meanwhile, a much weaker/more subtle disturbance will move out of the Pacific and across California early, and then continue eastward across the Four Corners states, and eventually -- by the end of the period -- emerge into the Plains. At the surface, a weak frontal wave should move across the central Appalachians and then off the New England coast by evening, while the trailing cold front makes only slow southward progress across the Southeast and Southern Plains through the period. Showers and possibly a few weak thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period, from the Tennessee Valley into the Mid-Atlantic region. Weak convective activity will likely continue during the period, along the aforementioned surface front as it sags southward. However, weak instability forecast across the region should substantially hinder appreciable severe risk. At this time, it appears that a stronger, elevated afternoon storm or two, evolving over the North Carolina vicinity, possibly capable of producing hail. However, overall risk for any hail exceeding 1" in diameter appears too small at this time to introduce a MRGL risk area. ..Goss.. 02/05/2025 Read more

A 90-day burn ban was reinstated by the Bexar County Commissioners Court as dry conditions persisted. The previous burn ban ended on January 27. KSAT 12 (San Antonio, Texas), Feb 4, 2025

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 PM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of Tennessee and Kentucky. ...Tennessee/Kentucky... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the central U.S. today, as an associated jet streak translates eastward through the central Plains. In response, a low-level jet will gradually strengthen across the Ozarks today. At the surface, a warm front will move northward across the Tennessee Valley this afternoon and into the Ohio Valley this evening. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and to the south of the warm front near the eastern edge of the low-level jet. This convection is forecast to expand in coverage as large-scale ascent increases ahead of the approaching trough. Surface dewpoints near the front should be in the 50s F, with instability remaining weak during the day due to abundant cloud cover. In spite of this, deep-layer shear will be strong, with a notable increase in shear taking place as the exit region of the mid-level jet overspreads the Ohio Valley early this evening. RAP forecast soundings near the warm front from 00Z to 02Z/Thursday across southern Kentucky and northern Tennessee have MUCAPE between 500 and 1000 J/kg, 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot range, and 700 to 500 mb lapse rates approaching 7 C/km. This environment could be enough for an isolated severe threat. If surface-based cells can initiate near or to the south of the front, a few severe gusts and a brief tornado spinup would be possible. However, a near-surface inversion is present on many of the forecast soundings along the warm front. This will likely be a negative factor for the severe threat, keeping any severe potential localized and marginal. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 02/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 PM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of Tennessee and Kentucky. ...Tennessee/Kentucky... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the central U.S. today, as an associated jet streak translates eastward through the central Plains. In response, a low-level jet will gradually strengthen across the Ozarks today. At the surface, a warm front will move northward across the Tennessee Valley this afternoon and into the Ohio Valley this evening. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and to the south of the warm front near the eastern edge of the low-level jet. This convection is forecast to expand in coverage as large-scale ascent increases ahead of the approaching trough. Surface dewpoints near the front should be in the 50s F, with instability remaining weak during the day due to abundant cloud cover. In spite of this, deep-layer shear will be strong, with a notable increase in shear taking place as the exit region of the mid-level jet overspreads the Ohio Valley early this evening. RAP forecast soundings near the warm front from 00Z to 02Z/Thursday across southern Kentucky and northern Tennessee have MUCAPE between 500 and 1000 J/kg, 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot range, and 700 to 500 mb lapse rates approaching 7 C/km. This environment could be enough for an isolated severe threat. If surface-based cells can initiate near or to the south of the front, a few severe gusts and a brief tornado spinup would be possible. However, a near-surface inversion is present on many of the forecast soundings along the warm front. This will likely be a negative factor for the severe threat, keeping any severe potential localized and marginal. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 02/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 PM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of Tennessee and Kentucky. ...Tennessee/Kentucky... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the central U.S. today, as an associated jet streak translates eastward through the central Plains. In response, a low-level jet will gradually strengthen across the Ozarks today. At the surface, a warm front will move northward across the Tennessee Valley this afternoon and into the Ohio Valley this evening. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and to the south of the warm front near the eastern edge of the low-level jet. This convection is forecast to expand in coverage as large-scale ascent increases ahead of the approaching trough. Surface dewpoints near the front should be in the 50s F, with instability remaining weak during the day due to abundant cloud cover. In spite of this, deep-layer shear will be strong, with a notable increase in shear taking place as the exit region of the mid-level jet overspreads the Ohio Valley early this evening. RAP forecast soundings near the warm front from 00Z to 02Z/Thursday across southern Kentucky and northern Tennessee have MUCAPE between 500 and 1000 J/kg, 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot range, and 700 to 500 mb lapse rates approaching 7 C/km. This environment could be enough for an isolated severe threat. If surface-based cells can initiate near or to the south of the front, a few severe gusts and a brief tornado spinup would be possible. However, a near-surface inversion is present on many of the forecast soundings along the warm front. This will likely be a negative factor for the severe threat, keeping any severe potential localized and marginal. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 02/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 PM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of Tennessee and Kentucky. ...Tennessee/Kentucky... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the central U.S. today, as an associated jet streak translates eastward through the central Plains. In response, a low-level jet will gradually strengthen across the Ozarks today. At the surface, a warm front will move northward across the Tennessee Valley this afternoon and into the Ohio Valley this evening. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and to the south of the warm front near the eastern edge of the low-level jet. This convection is forecast to expand in coverage as large-scale ascent increases ahead of the approaching trough. Surface dewpoints near the front should be in the 50s F, with instability remaining weak during the day due to abundant cloud cover. In spite of this, deep-layer shear will be strong, with a notable increase in shear taking place as the exit region of the mid-level jet overspreads the Ohio Valley early this evening. RAP forecast soundings near the warm front from 00Z to 02Z/Thursday across southern Kentucky and northern Tennessee have MUCAPE between 500 and 1000 J/kg, 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot range, and 700 to 500 mb lapse rates approaching 7 C/km. This environment could be enough for an isolated severe threat. If surface-based cells can initiate near or to the south of the front, a few severe gusts and a brief tornado spinup would be possible. However, a near-surface inversion is present on many of the forecast soundings along the warm front. This will likely be a negative factor for the severe threat, keeping any severe potential localized and marginal. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 02/05/2025 Read more