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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY INTO FAR SOUTHERN OHIO AND FAR SOUTHWEST WEST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe potential will be possible this afternoon and evening from Tennessee and Kentucky into far southern Ohio and far southwest West Virginia. ...Synopsis... Early morning satellite imagery reveals a shortwave trough entering the central Plains, with another, more amplified shortwave trough farther west across the Pacific Northwest. The lead shortwave is forecast to progress eastward, reaching the Mid MS Valley by late tonight and continuing through the OH Valley early tomorrow. Mass response ahead of this wave will contribute to a broad area of moisture return, with the airmass that is currently over east TX and the Lower MS Valley advecting northeastward through the Mid South and TN Valley throughout the day. A weak surface low will likely develop over the Ozarks ahead of the approaching shortwave, before then progressing quickly northeastward along the warm front and ending the period near the OH/WV/KY border vicinity. ...Tennessee/Kentucky... As mentioned in the synopsis, moderate low-level moisture is expected to advect in the TN Valley throughout the day, with most guidance bringing low 60s dewpoints into western and south-central KY by early Thursday. Showers and occasional thunderstorms are possible amid the broad warm-air advection expected throughout the warm sector. Instability will be modest, tempered by widespread cloud cover and poor lapse rates, which is expected to limit thunderstorm strength and duration throughout much of the period. However, large-scale forcing for ascent will increase as the shortwave trough approaches the region, augmenting the ongoing warm-air advection. This increased lift is expected to result in increased convective coverage and intensity, with more persistent updrafts likely. Strong vertical shear will be in place (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear around 50 kt), supporting the potential for organization with any more persistent updrafts. Primary threat will likely be hail as storms are generally expected to stay elevated. A strong gust or two, and perhaps even a brief tornado are possible from central KY into western/middle TN where a few surface based storms could occur. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY INTO FAR SOUTHERN OHIO AND FAR SOUTHWEST WEST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe potential will be possible this afternoon and evening from Tennessee and Kentucky into far southern Ohio and far southwest West Virginia. ...Synopsis... Early morning satellite imagery reveals a shortwave trough entering the central Plains, with another, more amplified shortwave trough farther west across the Pacific Northwest. The lead shortwave is forecast to progress eastward, reaching the Mid MS Valley by late tonight and continuing through the OH Valley early tomorrow. Mass response ahead of this wave will contribute to a broad area of moisture return, with the airmass that is currently over east TX and the Lower MS Valley advecting northeastward through the Mid South and TN Valley throughout the day. A weak surface low will likely develop over the Ozarks ahead of the approaching shortwave, before then progressing quickly northeastward along the warm front and ending the period near the OH/WV/KY border vicinity. ...Tennessee/Kentucky... As mentioned in the synopsis, moderate low-level moisture is expected to advect in the TN Valley throughout the day, with most guidance bringing low 60s dewpoints into western and south-central KY by early Thursday. Showers and occasional thunderstorms are possible amid the broad warm-air advection expected throughout the warm sector. Instability will be modest, tempered by widespread cloud cover and poor lapse rates, which is expected to limit thunderstorm strength and duration throughout much of the period. However, large-scale forcing for ascent will increase as the shortwave trough approaches the region, augmenting the ongoing warm-air advection. This increased lift is expected to result in increased convective coverage and intensity, with more persistent updrafts likely. Strong vertical shear will be in place (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear around 50 kt), supporting the potential for organization with any more persistent updrafts. Primary threat will likely be hail as storms are generally expected to stay elevated. A strong gust or two, and perhaps even a brief tornado are possible from central KY into western/middle TN where a few surface based storms could occur. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY INTO FAR SOUTHERN OHIO AND FAR SOUTHWEST WEST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe potential will be possible this afternoon and evening from Tennessee and Kentucky into far southern Ohio and far southwest West Virginia. ...Synopsis... Early morning satellite imagery reveals a shortwave trough entering the central Plains, with another, more amplified shortwave trough farther west across the Pacific Northwest. The lead shortwave is forecast to progress eastward, reaching the Mid MS Valley by late tonight and continuing through the OH Valley early tomorrow. Mass response ahead of this wave will contribute to a broad area of moisture return, with the airmass that is currently over east TX and the Lower MS Valley advecting northeastward through the Mid South and TN Valley throughout the day. A weak surface low will likely develop over the Ozarks ahead of the approaching shortwave, before then progressing quickly northeastward along the warm front and ending the period near the OH/WV/KY border vicinity. ...Tennessee/Kentucky... As mentioned in the synopsis, moderate low-level moisture is expected to advect in the TN Valley throughout the day, with most guidance bringing low 60s dewpoints into western and south-central KY by early Thursday. Showers and occasional thunderstorms are possible amid the broad warm-air advection expected throughout the warm sector. Instability will be modest, tempered by widespread cloud cover and poor lapse rates, which is expected to limit thunderstorm strength and duration throughout much of the period. However, large-scale forcing for ascent will increase as the shortwave trough approaches the region, augmenting the ongoing warm-air advection. This increased lift is expected to result in increased convective coverage and intensity, with more persistent updrafts likely. Strong vertical shear will be in place (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear around 50 kt), supporting the potential for organization with any more persistent updrafts. Primary threat will likely be hail as storms are generally expected to stay elevated. A strong gust or two, and perhaps even a brief tornado are possible from central KY into western/middle TN where a few surface based storms could occur. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY INTO FAR SOUTHERN OHIO AND FAR SOUTHWEST WEST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe potential will be possible this afternoon and evening from Tennessee and Kentucky into far southern Ohio and far southwest West Virginia. ...Synopsis... Early morning satellite imagery reveals a shortwave trough entering the central Plains, with another, more amplified shortwave trough farther west across the Pacific Northwest. The lead shortwave is forecast to progress eastward, reaching the Mid MS Valley by late tonight and continuing through the OH Valley early tomorrow. Mass response ahead of this wave will contribute to a broad area of moisture return, with the airmass that is currently over east TX and the Lower MS Valley advecting northeastward through the Mid South and TN Valley throughout the day. A weak surface low will likely develop over the Ozarks ahead of the approaching shortwave, before then progressing quickly northeastward along the warm front and ending the period near the OH/WV/KY border vicinity. ...Tennessee/Kentucky... As mentioned in the synopsis, moderate low-level moisture is expected to advect in the TN Valley throughout the day, with most guidance bringing low 60s dewpoints into western and south-central KY by early Thursday. Showers and occasional thunderstorms are possible amid the broad warm-air advection expected throughout the warm sector. Instability will be modest, tempered by widespread cloud cover and poor lapse rates, which is expected to limit thunderstorm strength and duration throughout much of the period. However, large-scale forcing for ascent will increase as the shortwave trough approaches the region, augmenting the ongoing warm-air advection. This increased lift is expected to result in increased convective coverage and intensity, with more persistent updrafts likely. Strong vertical shear will be in place (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear around 50 kt), supporting the potential for organization with any more persistent updrafts. Primary threat will likely be hail as storms are generally expected to stay elevated. A strong gust or two, and perhaps even a brief tornado are possible from central KY into western/middle TN where a few surface based storms could occur. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY INTO FAR SOUTHERN OHIO AND FAR SOUTHWEST WEST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe potential will be possible this afternoon and evening from Tennessee and Kentucky into far southern Ohio and far southwest West Virginia. ...Synopsis... Early morning satellite imagery reveals a shortwave trough entering the central Plains, with another, more amplified shortwave trough farther west across the Pacific Northwest. The lead shortwave is forecast to progress eastward, reaching the Mid MS Valley by late tonight and continuing through the OH Valley early tomorrow. Mass response ahead of this wave will contribute to a broad area of moisture return, with the airmass that is currently over east TX and the Lower MS Valley advecting northeastward through the Mid South and TN Valley throughout the day. A weak surface low will likely develop over the Ozarks ahead of the approaching shortwave, before then progressing quickly northeastward along the warm front and ending the period near the OH/WV/KY border vicinity. ...Tennessee/Kentucky... As mentioned in the synopsis, moderate low-level moisture is expected to advect in the TN Valley throughout the day, with most guidance bringing low 60s dewpoints into western and south-central KY by early Thursday. Showers and occasional thunderstorms are possible amid the broad warm-air advection expected throughout the warm sector. Instability will be modest, tempered by widespread cloud cover and poor lapse rates, which is expected to limit thunderstorm strength and duration throughout much of the period. However, large-scale forcing for ascent will increase as the shortwave trough approaches the region, augmenting the ongoing warm-air advection. This increased lift is expected to result in increased convective coverage and intensity, with more persistent updrafts likely. Strong vertical shear will be in place (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear around 50 kt), supporting the potential for organization with any more persistent updrafts. Primary threat will likely be hail as storms are generally expected to stay elevated. A strong gust or two, and perhaps even a brief tornado are possible from central KY into western/middle TN where a few surface based storms could occur. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY INTO FAR SOUTHERN OHIO AND FAR SOUTHWEST WEST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe potential will be possible this afternoon and evening from Tennessee and Kentucky into far southern Ohio and far southwest West Virginia. ...Synopsis... Early morning satellite imagery reveals a shortwave trough entering the central Plains, with another, more amplified shortwave trough farther west across the Pacific Northwest. The lead shortwave is forecast to progress eastward, reaching the Mid MS Valley by late tonight and continuing through the OH Valley early tomorrow. Mass response ahead of this wave will contribute to a broad area of moisture return, with the airmass that is currently over east TX and the Lower MS Valley advecting northeastward through the Mid South and TN Valley throughout the day. A weak surface low will likely develop over the Ozarks ahead of the approaching shortwave, before then progressing quickly northeastward along the warm front and ending the period near the OH/WV/KY border vicinity. ...Tennessee/Kentucky... As mentioned in the synopsis, moderate low-level moisture is expected to advect in the TN Valley throughout the day, with most guidance bringing low 60s dewpoints into western and south-central KY by early Thursday. Showers and occasional thunderstorms are possible amid the broad warm-air advection expected throughout the warm sector. Instability will be modest, tempered by widespread cloud cover and poor lapse rates, which is expected to limit thunderstorm strength and duration throughout much of the period. However, large-scale forcing for ascent will increase as the shortwave trough approaches the region, augmenting the ongoing warm-air advection. This increased lift is expected to result in increased convective coverage and intensity, with more persistent updrafts likely. Strong vertical shear will be in place (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear around 50 kt), supporting the potential for organization with any more persistent updrafts. Primary threat will likely be hail as storms are generally expected to stay elevated. A strong gust or two, and perhaps even a brief tornado are possible from central KY into western/middle TN where a few surface based storms could occur. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/05/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range global models appear to be in reasonable large-scale agreement into the first half of day 6 (Monday). At this point, more substantial differences begin to emerge with respect to the amplification of the flow field across the U.S., as the main western U.S. trough begins a slow eastward advance. These differences are significant in that speed and timing of the advance of this system will influence surface cyclogenesis along what has been a persistent, roughly west-to-east baroclinic zone across the south-central and southeastern CONUS. Stronger/inland low development along this front would potential bring an increase in severe-weather potential, but this scenario is far too uncertain at this point to highlight through the second half of the period. Earlier in the period, a frontal low along the surface baroclinic zone is forecast to shift out of the Oklahoma vicinity, and east-northeastward across the Ohio Valley area day 4, before reaching the southern New England coastal vicinity by the start of day 5. However, very weak warm-sector instability is expected at this time, which should preclude severe risk. As the low deepens northward into the Canadian Maritimes, the trailing cold front should settle back into its recently persistent position from the southern Plains to the Southeast, and remain there into the Day 6 period ahead of the advancing western upper trough. Again, with weak instability near the boundary and southward into the warm sector, severe weather is not expected. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range global models appear to be in reasonable large-scale agreement into the first half of day 6 (Monday). At this point, more substantial differences begin to emerge with respect to the amplification of the flow field across the U.S., as the main western U.S. trough begins a slow eastward advance. These differences are significant in that speed and timing of the advance of this system will influence surface cyclogenesis along what has been a persistent, roughly west-to-east baroclinic zone across the south-central and southeastern CONUS. Stronger/inland low development along this front would potential bring an increase in severe-weather potential, but this scenario is far too uncertain at this point to highlight through the second half of the period. Earlier in the period, a frontal low along the surface baroclinic zone is forecast to shift out of the Oklahoma vicinity, and east-northeastward across the Ohio Valley area day 4, before reaching the southern New England coastal vicinity by the start of day 5. However, very weak warm-sector instability is expected at this time, which should preclude severe risk. As the low deepens northward into the Canadian Maritimes, the trailing cold front should settle back into its recently persistent position from the southern Plains to the Southeast, and remain there into the Day 6 period ahead of the advancing western upper trough. Again, with weak instability near the boundary and southward into the warm sector, severe weather is not expected. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range global models appear to be in reasonable large-scale agreement into the first half of day 6 (Monday). At this point, more substantial differences begin to emerge with respect to the amplification of the flow field across the U.S., as the main western U.S. trough begins a slow eastward advance. These differences are significant in that speed and timing of the advance of this system will influence surface cyclogenesis along what has been a persistent, roughly west-to-east baroclinic zone across the south-central and southeastern CONUS. Stronger/inland low development along this front would potential bring an increase in severe-weather potential, but this scenario is far too uncertain at this point to highlight through the second half of the period. Earlier in the period, a frontal low along the surface baroclinic zone is forecast to shift out of the Oklahoma vicinity, and east-northeastward across the Ohio Valley area day 4, before reaching the southern New England coastal vicinity by the start of day 5. However, very weak warm-sector instability is expected at this time, which should preclude severe risk. As the low deepens northward into the Canadian Maritimes, the trailing cold front should settle back into its recently persistent position from the southern Plains to the Southeast, and remain there into the Day 6 period ahead of the advancing western upper trough. Again, with weak instability near the boundary and southward into the warm sector, severe weather is not expected. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range global models appear to be in reasonable large-scale agreement into the first half of day 6 (Monday). At this point, more substantial differences begin to emerge with respect to the amplification of the flow field across the U.S., as the main western U.S. trough begins a slow eastward advance. These differences are significant in that speed and timing of the advance of this system will influence surface cyclogenesis along what has been a persistent, roughly west-to-east baroclinic zone across the south-central and southeastern CONUS. Stronger/inland low development along this front would potential bring an increase in severe-weather potential, but this scenario is far too uncertain at this point to highlight through the second half of the period. Earlier in the period, a frontal low along the surface baroclinic zone is forecast to shift out of the Oklahoma vicinity, and east-northeastward across the Ohio Valley area day 4, before reaching the southern New England coastal vicinity by the start of day 5. However, very weak warm-sector instability is expected at this time, which should preclude severe risk. As the low deepens northward into the Canadian Maritimes, the trailing cold front should settle back into its recently persistent position from the southern Plains to the Southeast, and remain there into the Day 6 period ahead of the advancing western upper trough. Again, with weak instability near the boundary and southward into the warm sector, severe weather is not expected. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range global models appear to be in reasonable large-scale agreement into the first half of day 6 (Monday). At this point, more substantial differences begin to emerge with respect to the amplification of the flow field across the U.S., as the main western U.S. trough begins a slow eastward advance. These differences are significant in that speed and timing of the advance of this system will influence surface cyclogenesis along what has been a persistent, roughly west-to-east baroclinic zone across the south-central and southeastern CONUS. Stronger/inland low development along this front would potential bring an increase in severe-weather potential, but this scenario is far too uncertain at this point to highlight through the second half of the period. Earlier in the period, a frontal low along the surface baroclinic zone is forecast to shift out of the Oklahoma vicinity, and east-northeastward across the Ohio Valley area day 4, before reaching the southern New England coastal vicinity by the start of day 5. However, very weak warm-sector instability is expected at this time, which should preclude severe risk. As the low deepens northward into the Canadian Maritimes, the trailing cold front should settle back into its recently persistent position from the southern Plains to the Southeast, and remain there into the Day 6 period ahead of the advancing western upper trough. Again, with weak instability near the boundary and southward into the warm sector, severe weather is not expected. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range global models appear to be in reasonable large-scale agreement into the first half of day 6 (Monday). At this point, more substantial differences begin to emerge with respect to the amplification of the flow field across the U.S., as the main western U.S. trough begins a slow eastward advance. These differences are significant in that speed and timing of the advance of this system will influence surface cyclogenesis along what has been a persistent, roughly west-to-east baroclinic zone across the south-central and southeastern CONUS. Stronger/inland low development along this front would potential bring an increase in severe-weather potential, but this scenario is far too uncertain at this point to highlight through the second half of the period. Earlier in the period, a frontal low along the surface baroclinic zone is forecast to shift out of the Oklahoma vicinity, and east-northeastward across the Ohio Valley area day 4, before reaching the southern New England coastal vicinity by the start of day 5. However, very weak warm-sector instability is expected at this time, which should preclude severe risk. As the low deepens northward into the Canadian Maritimes, the trailing cold front should settle back into its recently persistent position from the southern Plains to the Southeast, and remain there into the Day 6 period ahead of the advancing western upper trough. Again, with weak instability near the boundary and southward into the warm sector, severe weather is not expected. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunder potential appears minimal across the U.S. on Friday. ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal flow aloft will continue across the U.S. in a broad sense on Friday. A short-wave trough initially over the northwestern U.S. will move quickly eastward within the background westerly flow field, weakening with time as it crosses the northern Rockies and reaches the northern Plains late. Surface mass response associated with this system, in the form of a weak surface low, is forecast to shift eastward across the Intermountain West and into the Plains, settling over the Nebraska vicinity late. Meanwhile, the main surface baroclinic zone will remain draped west-to-east from Oklahoma to the Southeast. Any lingering/sporadic lightning ongoing early over the Carolina Coast near this front should move quickly offshore. Afterward, though isolated showers may evolve during the afternoon near the front over the Southeast, and other/isolated showers should accompany passage of the western U.S. trough across the Rockies, any potential for lightning appears too low at this time to highlight with a 10% thunder area. ..Goss.. 02/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunder potential appears minimal across the U.S. on Friday. ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal flow aloft will continue across the U.S. in a broad sense on Friday. A short-wave trough initially over the northwestern U.S. will move quickly eastward within the background westerly flow field, weakening with time as it crosses the northern Rockies and reaches the northern Plains late. Surface mass response associated with this system, in the form of a weak surface low, is forecast to shift eastward across the Intermountain West and into the Plains, settling over the Nebraska vicinity late. Meanwhile, the main surface baroclinic zone will remain draped west-to-east from Oklahoma to the Southeast. Any lingering/sporadic lightning ongoing early over the Carolina Coast near this front should move quickly offshore. Afterward, though isolated showers may evolve during the afternoon near the front over the Southeast, and other/isolated showers should accompany passage of the western U.S. trough across the Rockies, any potential for lightning appears too low at this time to highlight with a 10% thunder area. ..Goss.. 02/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunder potential appears minimal across the U.S. on Friday. ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal flow aloft will continue across the U.S. in a broad sense on Friday. A short-wave trough initially over the northwestern U.S. will move quickly eastward within the background westerly flow field, weakening with time as it crosses the northern Rockies and reaches the northern Plains late. Surface mass response associated with this system, in the form of a weak surface low, is forecast to shift eastward across the Intermountain West and into the Plains, settling over the Nebraska vicinity late. Meanwhile, the main surface baroclinic zone will remain draped west-to-east from Oklahoma to the Southeast. Any lingering/sporadic lightning ongoing early over the Carolina Coast near this front should move quickly offshore. Afterward, though isolated showers may evolve during the afternoon near the front over the Southeast, and other/isolated showers should accompany passage of the western U.S. trough across the Rockies, any potential for lightning appears too low at this time to highlight with a 10% thunder area. ..Goss.. 02/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunder potential appears minimal across the U.S. on Friday. ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal flow aloft will continue across the U.S. in a broad sense on Friday. A short-wave trough initially over the northwestern U.S. will move quickly eastward within the background westerly flow field, weakening with time as it crosses the northern Rockies and reaches the northern Plains late. Surface mass response associated with this system, in the form of a weak surface low, is forecast to shift eastward across the Intermountain West and into the Plains, settling over the Nebraska vicinity late. Meanwhile, the main surface baroclinic zone will remain draped west-to-east from Oklahoma to the Southeast. Any lingering/sporadic lightning ongoing early over the Carolina Coast near this front should move quickly offshore. Afterward, though isolated showers may evolve during the afternoon near the front over the Southeast, and other/isolated showers should accompany passage of the western U.S. trough across the Rockies, any potential for lightning appears too low at this time to highlight with a 10% thunder area. ..Goss.. 02/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunder potential appears minimal across the U.S. on Friday. ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal flow aloft will continue across the U.S. in a broad sense on Friday. A short-wave trough initially over the northwestern U.S. will move quickly eastward within the background westerly flow field, weakening with time as it crosses the northern Rockies and reaches the northern Plains late. Surface mass response associated with this system, in the form of a weak surface low, is forecast to shift eastward across the Intermountain West and into the Plains, settling over the Nebraska vicinity late. Meanwhile, the main surface baroclinic zone will remain draped west-to-east from Oklahoma to the Southeast. Any lingering/sporadic lightning ongoing early over the Carolina Coast near this front should move quickly offshore. Afterward, though isolated showers may evolve during the afternoon near the front over the Southeast, and other/isolated showers should accompany passage of the western U.S. trough across the Rockies, any potential for lightning appears too low at this time to highlight with a 10% thunder area. ..Goss.. 02/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunder potential appears minimal across the U.S. on Friday. ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal flow aloft will continue across the U.S. in a broad sense on Friday. A short-wave trough initially over the northwestern U.S. will move quickly eastward within the background westerly flow field, weakening with time as it crosses the northern Rockies and reaches the northern Plains late. Surface mass response associated with this system, in the form of a weak surface low, is forecast to shift eastward across the Intermountain West and into the Plains, settling over the Nebraska vicinity late. Meanwhile, the main surface baroclinic zone will remain draped west-to-east from Oklahoma to the Southeast. Any lingering/sporadic lightning ongoing early over the Carolina Coast near this front should move quickly offshore. Afterward, though isolated showers may evolve during the afternoon near the front over the Southeast, and other/isolated showers should accompany passage of the western U.S. trough across the Rockies, any potential for lightning appears too low at this time to highlight with a 10% thunder area. ..Goss.. 02/05/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... Continued, largely zonal, mid-level flow is expected across the central and western US D2/Thursday. Several embedded perturbations are forecast to move over the Rockies, enhancing lee troughing and surface winds over the Southwest. Continued warm/dry conditions, bolstered by increasing winds, should support several hours of elevated to near-critical fire-weather concerns. ...Southern High Plains and Southwest... Periods of breezy conditions are anticipated as low-amplitude upper disturbances and strong westerly flow aloft traverse the central Rockies. Modest lee troughing will encourage westerly downslope winds of 15-25 mph off the central/southern Rockies over much of AZ and NM. Continued dry and warm conditions, aided by deep mixing, will keep humidity below 15% over much of the area. With several days of drying, fuels will likely continue to become more receptive to fire spread. Recent model guidance has trended windier and drier across much of the Southwest. A few hours of locally critical fire-weather conditions also appear possible within areas of stronger terrain-enhanced wind gusts. However, confidence in widespread critical conditions is relatively low, given the more limited overlap of the stronger winds, low humidity and more receptive fuels. ..Lyons.. 02/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more