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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 1019 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... AND OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA...... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms are possible from the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia and parts of the Central Valley of California. Damaging winds and a brief tornado are the primary threats. ...Southeast... Lead shortwave trough continues to progress through the OH Valley this morning, and is expected to continue northeastward through the Northeast today. Primary surface low associated with this system is over the Great Lakes region, but an ill defined secondary triple point low exists farther south over east-central GA. A cold front extends southwestward from this secondary low off the FL coast while a warm front extends eastward into the SC Lowcountry before arcing northeastward along the SC and NC coasts. Warm sector between these two features is characterized by temperatures in the low 70s with dew points in the upper 60s/low 70s. A convective line is currently traversing this warm sector, extending from the Savannah GA region southwest towards the Apalachicola region. Modest buoyancy exists ahead of this line across the eastern FL Panhandle and extreme southeastern GA, with MUCAPE in and around 1000-1500 j/kg region. Moderate deep-layer shear extends across the warm sector, which is contributing to modest updraft organization within the line and occasional bowing segments. Shear is expected to continue to weaken throughout the day as the parent shortwave trough becomes increasingly displaced north and the mid/low level flow weakens. As a result, the severe potential over this region will likely remain modest, with severe potential peaking/having already peaked. Nevertheless, a few strong to severe storms are still possible, mainly along the cold front in the eastern FL panhandle. Damaging gusts will be the primary risk, but a brief tornado is still possible as well. ...Central Valley of California... Satellite imagery depicts an intense cyclone off the West Coast, with a strong shortwave trough moving through its southern periphery towards central CA. This shortwave is forecast to reach the coast this afternoon. Warm-air advection shower activity this morning has begun to subside. As these showers continue to clear out, temperatures should warm into the upper 50s/low 60s while mid-level cold-air advection results in 500-mb temperatures in the -22 to -25 deg C range. This will support weak airmass destabilization, with modest buoyancy anticipated during the afternoon. This could result in some deeper, more sustained convection. Vertical shear will be strong enough to support transient rotation within any deeper updrafts, yielding a localized wind/brief tornado risk during the late afternoon. ..15_ows.. 02/13/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 02/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns will be minimal today, as a cold post-frontal air mass encompasses much of the central CONUS, while deep moisture and related precipitation overspread the West. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 02/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns will be minimal today, as a cold post-frontal air mass encompasses much of the central CONUS, while deep moisture and related precipitation overspread the West. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 02/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns will be minimal today, as a cold post-frontal air mass encompasses much of the central CONUS, while deep moisture and related precipitation overspread the West. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 02/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns will be minimal today, as a cold post-frontal air mass encompasses much of the central CONUS, while deep moisture and related precipitation overspread the West. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 02/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns will be minimal today, as a cold post-frontal air mass encompasses much of the central CONUS, while deep moisture and related precipitation overspread the West. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 02/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns will be minimal today, as a cold post-frontal air mass encompasses much of the central CONUS, while deep moisture and related precipitation overspread the West. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms are possible from the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia and parts of the Central Valley of California. Damaging winds and a brief tornado are the primary threats. ...Southeast... Lead shortwave trough continues to progress through the OH Valley this morning, and is expected to continue northeastward through the Northeast today. Primary surface low associated with this system is over the Lower Great Lakes, but a secondary triple point low exists farther south over west-central GA. A cold front extends southwestward from this secondary low off the AL coast while a warm front extends eastward into the SC Lowcountry before arcing northeastward along the SC and NC coasts. Warm sector between these two features is characterized by temperatures in the upper 60s/low 70s and dewpoints in the 60s. A convective line is currently traversing this warm sector, extending from the MMT vicinity in central SC southwestward to off the FL Panhandle Coast east of ECP. Modest buoyancy precedes this line across the central FL Panhandle and southwest/south-central GA, but weakens with northern extent, with MLCAPE dropping to less than 250 J/kg over southeast GA. In contrast to this modest buoyancy, strong deep-layer shear extends across the warm sector, which is contributing to modest updraft organization within the line and occasional bowing segments. Shear is expected to weaken throughout the day as the parent shortwave trough becomes increasingly displaced north and the mid/low level flow weakens. As a result, the severe potential over this region today will likely be maximized from now through the next 4 to 6 hours while some overlap between the modest buoyancy and strong shear exists. A few strong to severe storms are possible, particularly where the line interacts with the warm front. Damaging gusts will be the primary risk, but a brief line-embedded tornado is possible as well. ...Central Valley of California... Recent satellite imagery depicts an intense cyclone off the West Coast, with a strong shortwave trough moving through its southern periphery towards central CA. This shortwave is forecast to reach the coast later this afternoon, with the ongoing warm-air advection shower activity moving to the east/south as it does. As these showers clear out, temperatures should warm into the upper 50s/low 60s while mid-level cold-air advection results in 500-mb temperatures in the -22 to -25 deg C range. This will support weak airmass destabilization, with modest buoyancy anticipated during the afternoon. This could result in some deeper, more sustained convection. Vertical shear will be strong enough to support transient rotation within any deeper updrafts, yielding a localized wind/brief tornado risk during the late afternoon. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms are possible from the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia and parts of the Central Valley of California. Damaging winds and a brief tornado are the primary threats. ...Southeast... Lead shortwave trough continues to progress through the OH Valley this morning, and is expected to continue northeastward through the Northeast today. Primary surface low associated with this system is over the Lower Great Lakes, but a secondary triple point low exists farther south over west-central GA. A cold front extends southwestward from this secondary low off the AL coast while a warm front extends eastward into the SC Lowcountry before arcing northeastward along the SC and NC coasts. Warm sector between these two features is characterized by temperatures in the upper 60s/low 70s and dewpoints in the 60s. A convective line is currently traversing this warm sector, extending from the MMT vicinity in central SC southwestward to off the FL Panhandle Coast east of ECP. Modest buoyancy precedes this line across the central FL Panhandle and southwest/south-central GA, but weakens with northern extent, with MLCAPE dropping to less than 250 J/kg over southeast GA. In contrast to this modest buoyancy, strong deep-layer shear extends across the warm sector, which is contributing to modest updraft organization within the line and occasional bowing segments. Shear is expected to weaken throughout the day as the parent shortwave trough becomes increasingly displaced north and the mid/low level flow weakens. As a result, the severe potential over this region today will likely be maximized from now through the next 4 to 6 hours while some overlap between the modest buoyancy and strong shear exists. A few strong to severe storms are possible, particularly where the line interacts with the warm front. Damaging gusts will be the primary risk, but a brief line-embedded tornado is possible as well. ...Central Valley of California... Recent satellite imagery depicts an intense cyclone off the West Coast, with a strong shortwave trough moving through its southern periphery towards central CA. This shortwave is forecast to reach the coast later this afternoon, with the ongoing warm-air advection shower activity moving to the east/south as it does. As these showers clear out, temperatures should warm into the upper 50s/low 60s while mid-level cold-air advection results in 500-mb temperatures in the -22 to -25 deg C range. This will support weak airmass destabilization, with modest buoyancy anticipated during the afternoon. This could result in some deeper, more sustained convection. Vertical shear will be strong enough to support transient rotation within any deeper updrafts, yielding a localized wind/brief tornado risk during the late afternoon. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms are possible from the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia and parts of the Central Valley of California. Damaging winds and a brief tornado are the primary threats. ...Southeast... Lead shortwave trough continues to progress through the OH Valley this morning, and is expected to continue northeastward through the Northeast today. Primary surface low associated with this system is over the Lower Great Lakes, but a secondary triple point low exists farther south over west-central GA. A cold front extends southwestward from this secondary low off the AL coast while a warm front extends eastward into the SC Lowcountry before arcing northeastward along the SC and NC coasts. Warm sector between these two features is characterized by temperatures in the upper 60s/low 70s and dewpoints in the 60s. A convective line is currently traversing this warm sector, extending from the MMT vicinity in central SC southwestward to off the FL Panhandle Coast east of ECP. Modest buoyancy precedes this line across the central FL Panhandle and southwest/south-central GA, but weakens with northern extent, with MLCAPE dropping to less than 250 J/kg over southeast GA. In contrast to this modest buoyancy, strong deep-layer shear extends across the warm sector, which is contributing to modest updraft organization within the line and occasional bowing segments. Shear is expected to weaken throughout the day as the parent shortwave trough becomes increasingly displaced north and the mid/low level flow weakens. As a result, the severe potential over this region today will likely be maximized from now through the next 4 to 6 hours while some overlap between the modest buoyancy and strong shear exists. A few strong to severe storms are possible, particularly where the line interacts with the warm front. Damaging gusts will be the primary risk, but a brief line-embedded tornado is possible as well. ...Central Valley of California... Recent satellite imagery depicts an intense cyclone off the West Coast, with a strong shortwave trough moving through its southern periphery towards central CA. This shortwave is forecast to reach the coast later this afternoon, with the ongoing warm-air advection shower activity moving to the east/south as it does. As these showers clear out, temperatures should warm into the upper 50s/low 60s while mid-level cold-air advection results in 500-mb temperatures in the -22 to -25 deg C range. This will support weak airmass destabilization, with modest buoyancy anticipated during the afternoon. This could result in some deeper, more sustained convection. Vertical shear will be strong enough to support transient rotation within any deeper updrafts, yielding a localized wind/brief tornado risk during the late afternoon. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms are possible from the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia and parts of the Central Valley of California. Damaging winds and a brief tornado are the primary threats. ...Southeast... Lead shortwave trough continues to progress through the OH Valley this morning, and is expected to continue northeastward through the Northeast today. Primary surface low associated with this system is over the Lower Great Lakes, but a secondary triple point low exists farther south over west-central GA. A cold front extends southwestward from this secondary low off the AL coast while a warm front extends eastward into the SC Lowcountry before arcing northeastward along the SC and NC coasts. Warm sector between these two features is characterized by temperatures in the upper 60s/low 70s and dewpoints in the 60s. A convective line is currently traversing this warm sector, extending from the MMT vicinity in central SC southwestward to off the FL Panhandle Coast east of ECP. Modest buoyancy precedes this line across the central FL Panhandle and southwest/south-central GA, but weakens with northern extent, with MLCAPE dropping to less than 250 J/kg over southeast GA. In contrast to this modest buoyancy, strong deep-layer shear extends across the warm sector, which is contributing to modest updraft organization within the line and occasional bowing segments. Shear is expected to weaken throughout the day as the parent shortwave trough becomes increasingly displaced north and the mid/low level flow weakens. As a result, the severe potential over this region today will likely be maximized from now through the next 4 to 6 hours while some overlap between the modest buoyancy and strong shear exists. A few strong to severe storms are possible, particularly where the line interacts with the warm front. Damaging gusts will be the primary risk, but a brief line-embedded tornado is possible as well. ...Central Valley of California... Recent satellite imagery depicts an intense cyclone off the West Coast, with a strong shortwave trough moving through its southern periphery towards central CA. This shortwave is forecast to reach the coast later this afternoon, with the ongoing warm-air advection shower activity moving to the east/south as it does. As these showers clear out, temperatures should warm into the upper 50s/low 60s while mid-level cold-air advection results in 500-mb temperatures in the -22 to -25 deg C range. This will support weak airmass destabilization, with modest buoyancy anticipated during the afternoon. This could result in some deeper, more sustained convection. Vertical shear will be strong enough to support transient rotation within any deeper updrafts, yielding a localized wind/brief tornado risk during the late afternoon. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms are possible from the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia and parts of the Central Valley of California. Damaging winds and a brief tornado are the primary threats. ...Southeast... Lead shortwave trough continues to progress through the OH Valley this morning, and is expected to continue northeastward through the Northeast today. Primary surface low associated with this system is over the Lower Great Lakes, but a secondary triple point low exists farther south over west-central GA. A cold front extends southwestward from this secondary low off the AL coast while a warm front extends eastward into the SC Lowcountry before arcing northeastward along the SC and NC coasts. Warm sector between these two features is characterized by temperatures in the upper 60s/low 70s and dewpoints in the 60s. A convective line is currently traversing this warm sector, extending from the MMT vicinity in central SC southwestward to off the FL Panhandle Coast east of ECP. Modest buoyancy precedes this line across the central FL Panhandle and southwest/south-central GA, but weakens with northern extent, with MLCAPE dropping to less than 250 J/kg over southeast GA. In contrast to this modest buoyancy, strong deep-layer shear extends across the warm sector, which is contributing to modest updraft organization within the line and occasional bowing segments. Shear is expected to weaken throughout the day as the parent shortwave trough becomes increasingly displaced north and the mid/low level flow weakens. As a result, the severe potential over this region today will likely be maximized from now through the next 4 to 6 hours while some overlap between the modest buoyancy and strong shear exists. A few strong to severe storms are possible, particularly where the line interacts with the warm front. Damaging gusts will be the primary risk, but a brief line-embedded tornado is possible as well. ...Central Valley of California... Recent satellite imagery depicts an intense cyclone off the West Coast, with a strong shortwave trough moving through its southern periphery towards central CA. This shortwave is forecast to reach the coast later this afternoon, with the ongoing warm-air advection shower activity moving to the east/south as it does. As these showers clear out, temperatures should warm into the upper 50s/low 60s while mid-level cold-air advection results in 500-mb temperatures in the -22 to -25 deg C range. This will support weak airmass destabilization, with modest buoyancy anticipated during the afternoon. This could result in some deeper, more sustained convection. Vertical shear will be strong enough to support transient rotation within any deeper updrafts, yielding a localized wind/brief tornado risk during the late afternoon. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms are possible from the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia and parts of the Central Valley of California. Damaging winds and a brief tornado are the primary threats. ...Southeast... Lead shortwave trough continues to progress through the OH Valley this morning, and is expected to continue northeastward through the Northeast today. Primary surface low associated with this system is over the Lower Great Lakes, but a secondary triple point low exists farther south over west-central GA. A cold front extends southwestward from this secondary low off the AL coast while a warm front extends eastward into the SC Lowcountry before arcing northeastward along the SC and NC coasts. Warm sector between these two features is characterized by temperatures in the upper 60s/low 70s and dewpoints in the 60s. A convective line is currently traversing this warm sector, extending from the MMT vicinity in central SC southwestward to off the FL Panhandle Coast east of ECP. Modest buoyancy precedes this line across the central FL Panhandle and southwest/south-central GA, but weakens with northern extent, with MLCAPE dropping to less than 250 J/kg over southeast GA. In contrast to this modest buoyancy, strong deep-layer shear extends across the warm sector, which is contributing to modest updraft organization within the line and occasional bowing segments. Shear is expected to weaken throughout the day as the parent shortwave trough becomes increasingly displaced north and the mid/low level flow weakens. As a result, the severe potential over this region today will likely be maximized from now through the next 4 to 6 hours while some overlap between the modest buoyancy and strong shear exists. A few strong to severe storms are possible, particularly where the line interacts with the warm front. Damaging gusts will be the primary risk, but a brief line-embedded tornado is possible as well. ...Central Valley of California... Recent satellite imagery depicts an intense cyclone off the West Coast, with a strong shortwave trough moving through its southern periphery towards central CA. This shortwave is forecast to reach the coast later this afternoon, with the ongoing warm-air advection shower activity moving to the east/south as it does. As these showers clear out, temperatures should warm into the upper 50s/low 60s while mid-level cold-air advection results in 500-mb temperatures in the -22 to -25 deg C range. This will support weak airmass destabilization, with modest buoyancy anticipated during the afternoon. This could result in some deeper, more sustained convection. Vertical shear will be strong enough to support transient rotation within any deeper updrafts, yielding a localized wind/brief tornado risk during the late afternoon. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/13/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Sunday...Eastern Virginia/North Carolina... Strong mid-level ascent and a surface low moving through the Mid-Atlantic will bring strong wind fields to eastern Virginia an eastern North Carolina. While the surface cold front is not expected to move through these areas until mid/late morning, it is not clear how much destabilization will occur prior to its passage. Available forecast soundings suggest ample mid/upper-level cloud cover and subsequently cooler surface temperatures. Still, some moisture return ahead of the front may support at least shallow convection. Given the strong wind fields, some damaging winds could occur. Given the uncertainties, severe probabilities will be withheld. Beyond Sunday, expansive surface high pressure and cold air are generally expected across much of the CONUS. Severe potential through the middle of next week appears quite low. Models do hint at a surface cyclone developing along a cold front in the northern Gulf mid to late next week, but severe potential with that feature is far too uncertain this far in advance. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Sunday...Eastern Virginia/North Carolina... Strong mid-level ascent and a surface low moving through the Mid-Atlantic will bring strong wind fields to eastern Virginia an eastern North Carolina. While the surface cold front is not expected to move through these areas until mid/late morning, it is not clear how much destabilization will occur prior to its passage. Available forecast soundings suggest ample mid/upper-level cloud cover and subsequently cooler surface temperatures. Still, some moisture return ahead of the front may support at least shallow convection. Given the strong wind fields, some damaging winds could occur. Given the uncertainties, severe probabilities will be withheld. Beyond Sunday, expansive surface high pressure and cold air are generally expected across much of the CONUS. Severe potential through the middle of next week appears quite low. Models do hint at a surface cyclone developing along a cold front in the northern Gulf mid to late next week, but severe potential with that feature is far too uncertain this far in advance. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Sunday...Eastern Virginia/North Carolina... Strong mid-level ascent and a surface low moving through the Mid-Atlantic will bring strong wind fields to eastern Virginia an eastern North Carolina. While the surface cold front is not expected to move through these areas until mid/late morning, it is not clear how much destabilization will occur prior to its passage. Available forecast soundings suggest ample mid/upper-level cloud cover and subsequently cooler surface temperatures. Still, some moisture return ahead of the front may support at least shallow convection. Given the strong wind fields, some damaging winds could occur. Given the uncertainties, severe probabilities will be withheld. Beyond Sunday, expansive surface high pressure and cold air are generally expected across much of the CONUS. Severe potential through the middle of next week appears quite low. Models do hint at a surface cyclone developing along a cold front in the northern Gulf mid to late next week, but severe potential with that feature is far too uncertain this far in advance. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Sunday...Eastern Virginia/North Carolina... Strong mid-level ascent and a surface low moving through the Mid-Atlantic will bring strong wind fields to eastern Virginia an eastern North Carolina. While the surface cold front is not expected to move through these areas until mid/late morning, it is not clear how much destabilization will occur prior to its passage. Available forecast soundings suggest ample mid/upper-level cloud cover and subsequently cooler surface temperatures. Still, some moisture return ahead of the front may support at least shallow convection. Given the strong wind fields, some damaging winds could occur. Given the uncertainties, severe probabilities will be withheld. Beyond Sunday, expansive surface high pressure and cold air are generally expected across much of the CONUS. Severe potential through the middle of next week appears quite low. Models do hint at a surface cyclone developing along a cold front in the northern Gulf mid to late next week, but severe potential with that feature is far too uncertain this far in advance. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Sunday...Eastern Virginia/North Carolina... Strong mid-level ascent and a surface low moving through the Mid-Atlantic will bring strong wind fields to eastern Virginia an eastern North Carolina. While the surface cold front is not expected to move through these areas until mid/late morning, it is not clear how much destabilization will occur prior to its passage. Available forecast soundings suggest ample mid/upper-level cloud cover and subsequently cooler surface temperatures. Still, some moisture return ahead of the front may support at least shallow convection. Given the strong wind fields, some damaging winds could occur. Given the uncertainties, severe probabilities will be withheld. Beyond Sunday, expansive surface high pressure and cold air are generally expected across much of the CONUS. Severe potential through the middle of next week appears quite low. Models do hint at a surface cyclone developing along a cold front in the northern Gulf mid to late next week, but severe potential with that feature is far too uncertain this far in advance. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Sunday...Eastern Virginia/North Carolina... Strong mid-level ascent and a surface low moving through the Mid-Atlantic will bring strong wind fields to eastern Virginia an eastern North Carolina. While the surface cold front is not expected to move through these areas until mid/late morning, it is not clear how much destabilization will occur prior to its passage. Available forecast soundings suggest ample mid/upper-level cloud cover and subsequently cooler surface temperatures. Still, some moisture return ahead of the front may support at least shallow convection. Given the strong wind fields, some damaging winds could occur. Given the uncertainties, severe probabilities will be withheld. Beyond Sunday, expansive surface high pressure and cold air are generally expected across much of the CONUS. Severe potential through the middle of next week appears quite low. Models do hint at a surface cyclone developing along a cold front in the northern Gulf mid to late next week, but severe potential with that feature is far too uncertain this far in advance. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Sunday...Eastern Virginia/North Carolina... Strong mid-level ascent and a surface low moving through the Mid-Atlantic will bring strong wind fields to eastern Virginia an eastern North Carolina. While the surface cold front is not expected to move through these areas until mid/late morning, it is not clear how much destabilization will occur prior to its passage. Available forecast soundings suggest ample mid/upper-level cloud cover and subsequently cooler surface temperatures. Still, some moisture return ahead of the front may support at least shallow convection. Given the strong wind fields, some damaging winds could occur. Given the uncertainties, severe probabilities will be withheld. Beyond Sunday, expansive surface high pressure and cold air are generally expected across much of the CONUS. Severe potential through the middle of next week appears quite low. Models do hint at a surface cyclone developing along a cold front in the northern Gulf mid to late next week, but severe potential with that feature is far too uncertain this far in advance. Read more