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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... As the western trough moves inland across the Great Basin today, westerly flow aloft will overspread the central and southern Rockies. As a result, a lee cyclone will develop east of the Rockies, with an increase in surface winds across the southern/central Plains. Relative humidity reductions are expected to be limited, largely remaining above elevated and critical criteria. Some limited elevated concerns may be possible across portions of far southern New Mexico, especially in favorable downslope regions in the lee of the higher terrain, where lower relative humidity will be possible. Overall, marginal relative humidity reductions will limit the fire-weather threat. ..Thornton.. 02/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... As the western trough moves inland across the Great Basin today, westerly flow aloft will overspread the central and southern Rockies. As a result, a lee cyclone will develop east of the Rockies, with an increase in surface winds across the southern/central Plains. Relative humidity reductions are expected to be limited, largely remaining above elevated and critical criteria. Some limited elevated concerns may be possible across portions of far southern New Mexico, especially in favorable downslope regions in the lee of the higher terrain, where lower relative humidity will be possible. Overall, marginal relative humidity reductions will limit the fire-weather threat. ..Thornton.. 02/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... As the western trough moves inland across the Great Basin today, westerly flow aloft will overspread the central and southern Rockies. As a result, a lee cyclone will develop east of the Rockies, with an increase in surface winds across the southern/central Plains. Relative humidity reductions are expected to be limited, largely remaining above elevated and critical criteria. Some limited elevated concerns may be possible across portions of far southern New Mexico, especially in favorable downslope regions in the lee of the higher terrain, where lower relative humidity will be possible. Overall, marginal relative humidity reductions will limit the fire-weather threat. ..Thornton.. 02/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... As the western trough moves inland across the Great Basin today, westerly flow aloft will overspread the central and southern Rockies. As a result, a lee cyclone will develop east of the Rockies, with an increase in surface winds across the southern/central Plains. Relative humidity reductions are expected to be limited, largely remaining above elevated and critical criteria. Some limited elevated concerns may be possible across portions of far southern New Mexico, especially in favorable downslope regions in the lee of the higher terrain, where lower relative humidity will be possible. Overall, marginal relative humidity reductions will limit the fire-weather threat. ..Thornton.. 02/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... As the western trough moves inland across the Great Basin today, westerly flow aloft will overspread the central and southern Rockies. As a result, a lee cyclone will develop east of the Rockies, with an increase in surface winds across the southern/central Plains. Relative humidity reductions are expected to be limited, largely remaining above elevated and critical criteria. Some limited elevated concerns may be possible across portions of far southern New Mexico, especially in favorable downslope regions in the lee of the higher terrain, where lower relative humidity will be possible. Overall, marginal relative humidity reductions will limit the fire-weather threat. ..Thornton.. 02/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely today and tonight. ...Synopsis... A progressive longwave pattern will be highlighted by an amplifying upper trough over the Great Basin/Southwest Deserts to the southern Rockies, with lee cyclogenesis occurring across the central and southern High Plains. A few thunderstorms may occur mainly this afternoon across parts of the Great Basin to Four Corners, while thunderstorms are expected to increase tonight across the Ozarks/Mid-South to Tennessee Valley and Lower Ohio Valley. ...Ozarks/Mid-South... Initial height falls and cyclonically influenced westerlies will reach the region late tonight, with a substantially increasing and east/southeastward-shunting low-level jet and related robust elevated moisture transport. Parcels should gradually reach their LFC with scattered elevated convection (generally based 800-900mb) becoming increasingly capable of lightning overnight. MUCAPE could reach 750+ J/kg coincident with a long/semi-straight hodograph in the cloud-bearing layer. However, mid-level lapse rates will not be overly robust with relatively tall/thin elevated buoyancy. While some hail could occur early Saturday morning (9z-12z/3-6am CST) in areas spanning northern/eastern Arkansas to western Tennessee, current expectations are for hail magnitudes to generally remain below severe thresholds given the marginal thermodynamic environment. The overall severe hail potential is currently expected to remain below 5 percent. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 02/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely today and tonight. ...Synopsis... A progressive longwave pattern will be highlighted by an amplifying upper trough over the Great Basin/Southwest Deserts to the southern Rockies, with lee cyclogenesis occurring across the central and southern High Plains. A few thunderstorms may occur mainly this afternoon across parts of the Great Basin to Four Corners, while thunderstorms are expected to increase tonight across the Ozarks/Mid-South to Tennessee Valley and Lower Ohio Valley. ...Ozarks/Mid-South... Initial height falls and cyclonically influenced westerlies will reach the region late tonight, with a substantially increasing and east/southeastward-shunting low-level jet and related robust elevated moisture transport. Parcels should gradually reach their LFC with scattered elevated convection (generally based 800-900mb) becoming increasingly capable of lightning overnight. MUCAPE could reach 750+ J/kg coincident with a long/semi-straight hodograph in the cloud-bearing layer. However, mid-level lapse rates will not be overly robust with relatively tall/thin elevated buoyancy. While some hail could occur early Saturday morning (9z-12z/3-6am CST) in areas spanning northern/eastern Arkansas to western Tennessee, current expectations are for hail magnitudes to generally remain below severe thresholds given the marginal thermodynamic environment. The overall severe hail potential is currently expected to remain below 5 percent. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 02/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely today and tonight. ...Synopsis... A progressive longwave pattern will be highlighted by an amplifying upper trough over the Great Basin/Southwest Deserts to the southern Rockies, with lee cyclogenesis occurring across the central and southern High Plains. A few thunderstorms may occur mainly this afternoon across parts of the Great Basin to Four Corners, while thunderstorms are expected to increase tonight across the Ozarks/Mid-South to Tennessee Valley and Lower Ohio Valley. ...Ozarks/Mid-South... Initial height falls and cyclonically influenced westerlies will reach the region late tonight, with a substantially increasing and east/southeastward-shunting low-level jet and related robust elevated moisture transport. Parcels should gradually reach their LFC with scattered elevated convection (generally based 800-900mb) becoming increasingly capable of lightning overnight. MUCAPE could reach 750+ J/kg coincident with a long/semi-straight hodograph in the cloud-bearing layer. However, mid-level lapse rates will not be overly robust with relatively tall/thin elevated buoyancy. While some hail could occur early Saturday morning (9z-12z/3-6am CST) in areas spanning northern/eastern Arkansas to western Tennessee, current expectations are for hail magnitudes to generally remain below severe thresholds given the marginal thermodynamic environment. The overall severe hail potential is currently expected to remain below 5 percent. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 02/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely today and tonight. ...Synopsis... A progressive longwave pattern will be highlighted by an amplifying upper trough over the Great Basin/Southwest Deserts to the southern Rockies, with lee cyclogenesis occurring across the central and southern High Plains. A few thunderstorms may occur mainly this afternoon across parts of the Great Basin to Four Corners, while thunderstorms are expected to increase tonight across the Ozarks/Mid-South to Tennessee Valley and Lower Ohio Valley. ...Ozarks/Mid-South... Initial height falls and cyclonically influenced westerlies will reach the region late tonight, with a substantially increasing and east/southeastward-shunting low-level jet and related robust elevated moisture transport. Parcels should gradually reach their LFC with scattered elevated convection (generally based 800-900mb) becoming increasingly capable of lightning overnight. MUCAPE could reach 750+ J/kg coincident with a long/semi-straight hodograph in the cloud-bearing layer. However, mid-level lapse rates will not be overly robust with relatively tall/thin elevated buoyancy. While some hail could occur early Saturday morning (9z-12z/3-6am CST) in areas spanning northern/eastern Arkansas to western Tennessee, current expectations are for hail magnitudes to generally remain below severe thresholds given the marginal thermodynamic environment. The overall severe hail potential is currently expected to remain below 5 percent. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 02/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely today and tonight. ...Synopsis... A progressive longwave pattern will be highlighted by an amplifying upper trough over the Great Basin/Southwest Deserts to the southern Rockies, with lee cyclogenesis occurring across the central and southern High Plains. A few thunderstorms may occur mainly this afternoon across parts of the Great Basin to Four Corners, while thunderstorms are expected to increase tonight across the Ozarks/Mid-South to Tennessee Valley and Lower Ohio Valley. ...Ozarks/Mid-South... Initial height falls and cyclonically influenced westerlies will reach the region late tonight, with a substantially increasing and east/southeastward-shunting low-level jet and related robust elevated moisture transport. Parcels should gradually reach their LFC with scattered elevated convection (generally based 800-900mb) becoming increasingly capable of lightning overnight. MUCAPE could reach 750+ J/kg coincident with a long/semi-straight hodograph in the cloud-bearing layer. However, mid-level lapse rates will not be overly robust with relatively tall/thin elevated buoyancy. While some hail could occur early Saturday morning (9z-12z/3-6am CST) in areas spanning northern/eastern Arkansas to western Tennessee, current expectations are for hail magnitudes to generally remain below severe thresholds given the marginal thermodynamic environment. The overall severe hail potential is currently expected to remain below 5 percent. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 02/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely today and tonight. ...Synopsis... A progressive longwave pattern will be highlighted by an amplifying upper trough over the Great Basin/Southwest Deserts to the southern Rockies, with lee cyclogenesis occurring across the central and southern High Plains. A few thunderstorms may occur mainly this afternoon across parts of the Great Basin to Four Corners, while thunderstorms are expected to increase tonight across the Ozarks/Mid-South to Tennessee Valley and Lower Ohio Valley. ...Ozarks/Mid-South... Initial height falls and cyclonically influenced westerlies will reach the region late tonight, with a substantially increasing and east/southeastward-shunting low-level jet and related robust elevated moisture transport. Parcels should gradually reach their LFC with scattered elevated convection (generally based 800-900mb) becoming increasingly capable of lightning overnight. MUCAPE could reach 750+ J/kg coincident with a long/semi-straight hodograph in the cloud-bearing layer. However, mid-level lapse rates will not be overly robust with relatively tall/thin elevated buoyancy. While some hail could occur early Saturday morning (9z-12z/3-6am CST) in areas spanning northern/eastern Arkansas to western Tennessee, current expectations are for hail magnitudes to generally remain below severe thresholds given the marginal thermodynamic environment. The overall severe hail potential is currently expected to remain below 5 percent. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 02/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely today and tonight. ...Synopsis... A progressive longwave pattern will be highlighted by an amplifying upper trough over the Great Basin/Southwest Deserts to the southern Rockies, with lee cyclogenesis occurring across the central and southern High Plains. A few thunderstorms may occur mainly this afternoon across parts of the Great Basin to Four Corners, while thunderstorms are expected to increase tonight across the Ozarks/Mid-South to Tennessee Valley and Lower Ohio Valley. ...Ozarks/Mid-South... Initial height falls and cyclonically influenced westerlies will reach the region late tonight, with a substantially increasing and east/southeastward-shunting low-level jet and related robust elevated moisture transport. Parcels should gradually reach their LFC with scattered elevated convection (generally based 800-900mb) becoming increasingly capable of lightning overnight. MUCAPE could reach 750+ J/kg coincident with a long/semi-straight hodograph in the cloud-bearing layer. However, mid-level lapse rates will not be overly robust with relatively tall/thin elevated buoyancy. While some hail could occur early Saturday morning (9z-12z/3-6am CST) in areas spanning northern/eastern Arkansas to western Tennessee, current expectations are for hail magnitudes to generally remain below severe thresholds given the marginal thermodynamic environment. The overall severe hail potential is currently expected to remain below 5 percent. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 02/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0703 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms may occur this evening across coastal southern California. ...California... Some convectively enhanced wind gusts may occur across coastal southern California this evening in association with a low-topped organized convective line ongoing near the LA Metro area. Local WSR-88D VWP data suggests around 40-50 kt west-southwesterly winds within the lowest 2-3 km AGL, while the 00z observed sounding from Vandenberg sampled around 100 J/kg SBCAPE. Otherwise, the potential for some stronger storms over the interior valley of central California is expected to steadily diminish this evening as the boundary layer cools and the parent shortwave trough continues eastward tonight toward the Great Basin. ..Guyer.. 02/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0703 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms may occur this evening across coastal southern California. ...California... Some convectively enhanced wind gusts may occur across coastal southern California this evening in association with a low-topped organized convective line ongoing near the LA Metro area. Local WSR-88D VWP data suggests around 40-50 kt west-southwesterly winds within the lowest 2-3 km AGL, while the 00z observed sounding from Vandenberg sampled around 100 J/kg SBCAPE. Otherwise, the potential for some stronger storms over the interior valley of central California is expected to steadily diminish this evening as the boundary layer cools and the parent shortwave trough continues eastward tonight toward the Great Basin. ..Guyer.. 02/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0703 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms may occur this evening across coastal southern California. ...California... Some convectively enhanced wind gusts may occur across coastal southern California this evening in association with a low-topped organized convective line ongoing near the LA Metro area. Local WSR-88D VWP data suggests around 40-50 kt west-southwesterly winds within the lowest 2-3 km AGL, while the 00z observed sounding from Vandenberg sampled around 100 J/kg SBCAPE. Otherwise, the potential for some stronger storms over the interior valley of central California is expected to steadily diminish this evening as the boundary layer cools and the parent shortwave trough continues eastward tonight toward the Great Basin. ..Guyer.. 02/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0703 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms may occur this evening across coastal southern California. ...California... Some convectively enhanced wind gusts may occur across coastal southern California this evening in association with a low-topped organized convective line ongoing near the LA Metro area. Local WSR-88D VWP data suggests around 40-50 kt west-southwesterly winds within the lowest 2-3 km AGL, while the 00z observed sounding from Vandenberg sampled around 100 J/kg SBCAPE. Otherwise, the potential for some stronger storms over the interior valley of central California is expected to steadily diminish this evening as the boundary layer cools and the parent shortwave trough continues eastward tonight toward the Great Basin. ..Guyer.. 02/14/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Feb 13 22:50:01 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Feb 13 22:50:01 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z A mid-level trough will traverse the central CONUS, with a surface low deepening across the eastern CONUS on Day 3 (Saturday). Downslope westerly surface flow will encourage dry and breezy conditions across portions of southwestern Texas Saturday afternoon, overspreading drying fuels, warranting the maintenance of 40 percent Critical probabilities. Thereafter, multiple mid-level troughs will traverse the CONUS as surface high pressure and associated colder air overspreads much of the U.S. east of the Rockies, promoting quiescent fire weather conditions through much of next week. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible across southern portions of the Lower Colorado River Basin into southwestern Texas. However, confidence in widespread Critical conditions is low at this time. ..Squitieri.. 02/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z A mid-level trough will traverse the central CONUS, with a surface low deepening across the eastern CONUS on Day 3 (Saturday). Downslope westerly surface flow will encourage dry and breezy conditions across portions of southwestern Texas Saturday afternoon, overspreading drying fuels, warranting the maintenance of 40 percent Critical probabilities. Thereafter, multiple mid-level troughs will traverse the CONUS as surface high pressure and associated colder air overspreads much of the U.S. east of the Rockies, promoting quiescent fire weather conditions through much of next week. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible across southern portions of the Lower Colorado River Basin into southwestern Texas. However, confidence in widespread Critical conditions is low at this time. ..Squitieri.. 02/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more