Aggregator

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will begin to dig across the western U.S. while quasi-zonal flow emerges east of the Rockies on Monday. At the surface, strong high pressure will encompass much of the CONUS, with a prior cold frontal passage penetrating south across most of the Gulf. This will leave a dearth of boundary-layer moisture over most of the country. Some modest moisture may return to coastal TX as a lee low develops near the southern High Plains in response to the deepening southwestern U.S. upper trough. However, thunderstorm chances are not expected. ..Leitman.. 02/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will begin to dig across the western U.S. while quasi-zonal flow emerges east of the Rockies on Monday. At the surface, strong high pressure will encompass much of the CONUS, with a prior cold frontal passage penetrating south across most of the Gulf. This will leave a dearth of boundary-layer moisture over most of the country. Some modest moisture may return to coastal TX as a lee low develops near the southern High Plains in response to the deepening southwestern U.S. upper trough. However, thunderstorm chances are not expected. ..Leitman.. 02/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will begin to dig across the western U.S. while quasi-zonal flow emerges east of the Rockies on Monday. At the surface, strong high pressure will encompass much of the CONUS, with a prior cold frontal passage penetrating south across most of the Gulf. This will leave a dearth of boundary-layer moisture over most of the country. Some modest moisture may return to coastal TX as a lee low develops near the southern High Plains in response to the deepening southwestern U.S. upper trough. However, thunderstorm chances are not expected. ..Leitman.. 02/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will begin to dig across the western U.S. while quasi-zonal flow emerges east of the Rockies on Monday. At the surface, strong high pressure will encompass much of the CONUS, with a prior cold frontal passage penetrating south across most of the Gulf. This will leave a dearth of boundary-layer moisture over most of the country. Some modest moisture may return to coastal TX as a lee low develops near the southern High Plains in response to the deepening southwestern U.S. upper trough. However, thunderstorm chances are not expected. ..Leitman.. 02/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will begin to dig across the western U.S. while quasi-zonal flow emerges east of the Rockies on Monday. At the surface, strong high pressure will encompass much of the CONUS, with a prior cold frontal passage penetrating south across most of the Gulf. This will leave a dearth of boundary-layer moisture over most of the country. Some modest moisture may return to coastal TX as a lee low develops near the southern High Plains in response to the deepening southwestern U.S. upper trough. However, thunderstorm chances are not expected. ..Leitman.. 02/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will begin to dig across the western U.S. while quasi-zonal flow emerges east of the Rockies on Monday. At the surface, strong high pressure will encompass much of the CONUS, with a prior cold frontal passage penetrating south across most of the Gulf. This will leave a dearth of boundary-layer moisture over most of the country. Some modest moisture may return to coastal TX as a lee low develops near the southern High Plains in response to the deepening southwestern U.S. upper trough. However, thunderstorm chances are not expected. ..Leitman.. 02/15/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Behind a departing trough, high pressure will build in aloft with height rises across much of the western/central US. In addition, a post-frontal cool air mass will be in place across much of the central US on D2 - Sunday, supporting higher relative humidity across the southern Plains. This pattern will keep fire weather concerns low across the CONUS. ..Thornton.. 02/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Behind a departing trough, high pressure will build in aloft with height rises across much of the western/central US. In addition, a post-frontal cool air mass will be in place across much of the central US on D2 - Sunday, supporting higher relative humidity across the southern Plains. This pattern will keep fire weather concerns low across the CONUS. ..Thornton.. 02/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Behind a departing trough, high pressure will build in aloft with height rises across much of the western/central US. In addition, a post-frontal cool air mass will be in place across much of the central US on D2 - Sunday, supporting higher relative humidity across the southern Plains. This pattern will keep fire weather concerns low across the CONUS. ..Thornton.. 02/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Behind a departing trough, high pressure will build in aloft with height rises across much of the western/central US. In addition, a post-frontal cool air mass will be in place across much of the central US on D2 - Sunday, supporting higher relative humidity across the southern Plains. This pattern will keep fire weather concerns low across the CONUS. ..Thornton.. 02/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Behind a departing trough, high pressure will build in aloft with height rises across much of the western/central US. In addition, a post-frontal cool air mass will be in place across much of the central US on D2 - Sunday, supporting higher relative humidity across the southern Plains. This pattern will keep fire weather concerns low across the CONUS. ..Thornton.. 02/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Behind a departing trough, high pressure will build in aloft with height rises across much of the western/central US. In addition, a post-frontal cool air mass will be in place across much of the central US on D2 - Sunday, supporting higher relative humidity across the southern Plains. This pattern will keep fire weather concerns low across the CONUS. ..Thornton.. 02/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... Morning water vapor analysis shows a mid-level trough currently located across the southwestern US. A deepening surface low is also noted across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle, with gusts to 20 to 40 mph already occurring across much of the central high/southern Plains. The western trough is expected to eject across New Mexico today into the southern Plains, with an increase in surface winds expected as the surface low and attendant cold front shift eastward. Behind the front across portions of southwestern and far western Texas, dry conditions are expected with strong westerly to northwesterly flow around 20-25 mph (gusting around 40-50 mph) and relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent (locally as low as 10%). Though a few hours of elevated to critical meteorological conditions are expected, recent fuels guidance suggest ERCs are largely below the 50th percentile. The exception would be a small portion of Big Bend and areas west of Pecos right along the Mexico border. Though fuels are expected to experience drying, small overlap of sufficiently dry fuels with the highest likelihood of sustained critical meteorological conditions leads to low confidence in including any Critical areas at this time. Locally Critical conditions will be possible, primarily in the lee of the high terrain. ..Thornton.. 02/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... Morning water vapor analysis shows a mid-level trough currently located across the southwestern US. A deepening surface low is also noted across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle, with gusts to 20 to 40 mph already occurring across much of the central high/southern Plains. The western trough is expected to eject across New Mexico today into the southern Plains, with an increase in surface winds expected as the surface low and attendant cold front shift eastward. Behind the front across portions of southwestern and far western Texas, dry conditions are expected with strong westerly to northwesterly flow around 20-25 mph (gusting around 40-50 mph) and relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent (locally as low as 10%). Though a few hours of elevated to critical meteorological conditions are expected, recent fuels guidance suggest ERCs are largely below the 50th percentile. The exception would be a small portion of Big Bend and areas west of Pecos right along the Mexico border. Though fuels are expected to experience drying, small overlap of sufficiently dry fuels with the highest likelihood of sustained critical meteorological conditions leads to low confidence in including any Critical areas at this time. Locally Critical conditions will be possible, primarily in the lee of the high terrain. ..Thornton.. 02/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... Morning water vapor analysis shows a mid-level trough currently located across the southwestern US. A deepening surface low is also noted across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle, with gusts to 20 to 40 mph already occurring across much of the central high/southern Plains. The western trough is expected to eject across New Mexico today into the southern Plains, with an increase in surface winds expected as the surface low and attendant cold front shift eastward. Behind the front across portions of southwestern and far western Texas, dry conditions are expected with strong westerly to northwesterly flow around 20-25 mph (gusting around 40-50 mph) and relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent (locally as low as 10%). Though a few hours of elevated to critical meteorological conditions are expected, recent fuels guidance suggest ERCs are largely below the 50th percentile. The exception would be a small portion of Big Bend and areas west of Pecos right along the Mexico border. Though fuels are expected to experience drying, small overlap of sufficiently dry fuels with the highest likelihood of sustained critical meteorological conditions leads to low confidence in including any Critical areas at this time. Locally Critical conditions will be possible, primarily in the lee of the high terrain. ..Thornton.. 02/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... Morning water vapor analysis shows a mid-level trough currently located across the southwestern US. A deepening surface low is also noted across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle, with gusts to 20 to 40 mph already occurring across much of the central high/southern Plains. The western trough is expected to eject across New Mexico today into the southern Plains, with an increase in surface winds expected as the surface low and attendant cold front shift eastward. Behind the front across portions of southwestern and far western Texas, dry conditions are expected with strong westerly to northwesterly flow around 20-25 mph (gusting around 40-50 mph) and relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent (locally as low as 10%). Though a few hours of elevated to critical meteorological conditions are expected, recent fuels guidance suggest ERCs are largely below the 50th percentile. The exception would be a small portion of Big Bend and areas west of Pecos right along the Mexico border. Though fuels are expected to experience drying, small overlap of sufficiently dry fuels with the highest likelihood of sustained critical meteorological conditions leads to low confidence in including any Critical areas at this time. Locally Critical conditions will be possible, primarily in the lee of the high terrain. ..Thornton.. 02/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... Morning water vapor analysis shows a mid-level trough currently located across the southwestern US. A deepening surface low is also noted across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle, with gusts to 20 to 40 mph already occurring across much of the central high/southern Plains. The western trough is expected to eject across New Mexico today into the southern Plains, with an increase in surface winds expected as the surface low and attendant cold front shift eastward. Behind the front across portions of southwestern and far western Texas, dry conditions are expected with strong westerly to northwesterly flow around 20-25 mph (gusting around 40-50 mph) and relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent (locally as low as 10%). Though a few hours of elevated to critical meteorological conditions are expected, recent fuels guidance suggest ERCs are largely below the 50th percentile. The exception would be a small portion of Big Bend and areas west of Pecos right along the Mexico border. Though fuels are expected to experience drying, small overlap of sufficiently dry fuels with the highest likelihood of sustained critical meteorological conditions leads to low confidence in including any Critical areas at this time. Locally Critical conditions will be possible, primarily in the lee of the high terrain. ..Thornton.. 02/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... Morning water vapor analysis shows a mid-level trough currently located across the southwestern US. A deepening surface low is also noted across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle, with gusts to 20 to 40 mph already occurring across much of the central high/southern Plains. The western trough is expected to eject across New Mexico today into the southern Plains, with an increase in surface winds expected as the surface low and attendant cold front shift eastward. Behind the front across portions of southwestern and far western Texas, dry conditions are expected with strong westerly to northwesterly flow around 20-25 mph (gusting around 40-50 mph) and relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent (locally as low as 10%). Though a few hours of elevated to critical meteorological conditions are expected, recent fuels guidance suggest ERCs are largely below the 50th percentile. The exception would be a small portion of Big Bend and areas west of Pecos right along the Mexico border. Though fuels are expected to experience drying, small overlap of sufficiently dry fuels with the highest likelihood of sustained critical meteorological conditions leads to low confidence in including any Critical areas at this time. Locally Critical conditions will be possible, primarily in the lee of the high terrain. ..Thornton.. 02/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong wind gusts are possible on Sunday, mainly from late morning through the afternoon, across portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. ...Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic... Convection will be ongoing Sunday morning ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front from the FL Panhandle to the western Carolinas. This line of storms could produce strong gusts and perhaps a tornado across the FL Panhandle/north FL into southern GA where mid-60s F dewpoints are forecast amid strong vertical shear. However, large-scale ascent associated with an upper trough shifting east across the eastern U.S. will gradually become displaced to the north with time. Nevertheless, isolated severe potential is expected until the front moves offshore the GA coast by 21z. Further north into the Carolinas and portions of Delmarva vicinity, severe potential is somewhat more uncertain. Boundary-layer moisture will remain more limited (upper 50s to low 60s F) and instability will be quite weak due to poor lapse rates. However, strong large-scale ascent, frontal forcing, and intense south/southwesterly flow from around 925mb upward, will likely lend some support to strong gusts, even with weak convection that may produce little lightning. While poor thermodynamics may limit a more robust severe thunderstorm scenario, will maintain a Marginal risk given intense background flow fields. Severe thunderstorm potential should end by 21-00z as the cold front pushes offshore. ..Leitman.. 02/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong wind gusts are possible on Sunday, mainly from late morning through the afternoon, across portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. ...Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic... Convection will be ongoing Sunday morning ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front from the FL Panhandle to the western Carolinas. This line of storms could produce strong gusts and perhaps a tornado across the FL Panhandle/north FL into southern GA where mid-60s F dewpoints are forecast amid strong vertical shear. However, large-scale ascent associated with an upper trough shifting east across the eastern U.S. will gradually become displaced to the north with time. Nevertheless, isolated severe potential is expected until the front moves offshore the GA coast by 21z. Further north into the Carolinas and portions of Delmarva vicinity, severe potential is somewhat more uncertain. Boundary-layer moisture will remain more limited (upper 50s to low 60s F) and instability will be quite weak due to poor lapse rates. However, strong large-scale ascent, frontal forcing, and intense south/southwesterly flow from around 925mb upward, will likely lend some support to strong gusts, even with weak convection that may produce little lightning. While poor thermodynamics may limit a more robust severe thunderstorm scenario, will maintain a Marginal risk given intense background flow fields. Severe thunderstorm potential should end by 21-00z as the cold front pushes offshore. ..Leitman.. 02/15/2025 Read more