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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Warm and dry downslope winds appear likely in ensemble guidance across portions of central New Mexico, where winds could reach 15-20 MPH and relative humidity values drop below 20%. However, current ERC fuels guidance suggests the overall threat for wildfire ignition and spread is low. Given the lack of receptive fuels, there will be no introduction of fire-weather highlights at this time. ..Halbert.. 02/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Warm and dry downslope winds appear likely in ensemble guidance across portions of central New Mexico, where winds could reach 15-20 MPH and relative humidity values drop below 20%. However, current ERC fuels guidance suggests the overall threat for wildfire ignition and spread is low. Given the lack of receptive fuels, there will be no introduction of fire-weather highlights at this time. ..Halbert.. 02/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Warm and dry downslope winds appear likely in ensemble guidance across portions of central New Mexico, where winds could reach 15-20 MPH and relative humidity values drop below 20%. However, current ERC fuels guidance suggests the overall threat for wildfire ignition and spread is low. Given the lack of receptive fuels, there will be no introduction of fire-weather highlights at this time. ..Halbert.. 02/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Warm and dry downslope winds appear likely in ensemble guidance across portions of central New Mexico, where winds could reach 15-20 MPH and relative humidity values drop below 20%. However, current ERC fuels guidance suggests the overall threat for wildfire ignition and spread is low. Given the lack of receptive fuels, there will be no introduction of fire-weather highlights at this time. ..Halbert.. 02/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Warm and dry downslope winds appear likely in ensemble guidance across portions of central New Mexico, where winds could reach 15-20 MPH and relative humidity values drop below 20%. However, current ERC fuels guidance suggests the overall threat for wildfire ignition and spread is low. Given the lack of receptive fuels, there will be no introduction of fire-weather highlights at this time. ..Halbert.. 02/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Warm and dry downslope winds appear likely in ensemble guidance across portions of central New Mexico, where winds could reach 15-20 MPH and relative humidity values drop below 20%. However, current ERC fuels guidance suggests the overall threat for wildfire ignition and spread is low. Given the lack of receptive fuels, there will be no introduction of fire-weather highlights at this time. ..Halbert.. 02/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A southerly shift in winds across the Southern Plains will result in a return to warmer and dryer conditions, but weak surface winds and generally unreceptive fuels will limit the overall fire-weather threat. ..Halbert.. 02/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A southerly shift in winds across the Southern Plains will result in a return to warmer and dryer conditions, but weak surface winds and generally unreceptive fuels will limit the overall fire-weather threat. ..Halbert.. 02/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A southerly shift in winds across the Southern Plains will result in a return to warmer and dryer conditions, but weak surface winds and generally unreceptive fuels will limit the overall fire-weather threat. ..Halbert.. 02/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A southerly shift in winds across the Southern Plains will result in a return to warmer and dryer conditions, but weak surface winds and generally unreceptive fuels will limit the overall fire-weather threat. ..Halbert.. 02/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A southerly shift in winds across the Southern Plains will result in a return to warmer and dryer conditions, but weak surface winds and generally unreceptive fuels will limit the overall fire-weather threat. ..Halbert.. 02/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A southerly shift in winds across the Southern Plains will result in a return to warmer and dryer conditions, but weak surface winds and generally unreceptive fuels will limit the overall fire-weather threat. ..Halbert.. 02/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Scattered rainfall in the Coastal Bend ranged from 0.75-3 inches, with temperatures varying throughout the week and a potential freeze in the forecast causing concern. Soil moisture remained marginal, and subsoil moisture was inadequate despite recent precipitation. Wet conditions delayed fertilizer applications and spraying. Corn planting began but was put on hold due to cold weather concerns, while sorghum planting remained minimal. Pastures were beginning to green up, but growth was slow and inconsistent, with more rain needed. Hay supplies remained adequate from the strong spring 2024 season, but the dry winter has posed challenges. Livestock supplementation with hay and mineral tubs continued, and cattle conditions started to decline in some areas. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Feb 19, 2025

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0618 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms remain unlikely through tonight. ...Discussion... High pressure will remain situated over the majority of the CONUS through tonight, with any appreciable low-level moisture well offshore into the western Gulf. While a shortwave trough will move across AZ and NM tonight, loss of heating should minimize lapse rates and instability there. ..Jewell.. 02/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0618 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms remain unlikely through tonight. ...Discussion... High pressure will remain situated over the majority of the CONUS through tonight, with any appreciable low-level moisture well offshore into the western Gulf. While a shortwave trough will move across AZ and NM tonight, loss of heating should minimize lapse rates and instability there. ..Jewell.. 02/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0618 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms remain unlikely through tonight. ...Discussion... High pressure will remain situated over the majority of the CONUS through tonight, with any appreciable low-level moisture well offshore into the western Gulf. While a shortwave trough will move across AZ and NM tonight, loss of heating should minimize lapse rates and instability there. ..Jewell.. 02/22/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Feb 21 22:04:01 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Feb 21 22:04:01 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 011200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited through the extended period. Long-range ensemble guidance suggests that the upper-level synoptic regime will become characterized by persistent upper ridging across the northeastern Pacific/western U.S. with northwesterly flow across the eastern two-thirds of the country through next week. Low-amplitude upper disturbances embedded within the mean flow will support scattered rain/snow chances to parts of the country along with breezy conditions in the wake of any attendant surface lows/cold fronts. Both the deterministic ECMWF and GFS (and their respective ensemble families) suggest windy conditions (winds near/above 20 mph) are likely across the central to northern High Plains in the wake of such fronts during the D4/Mon to D6/Wed time frame. Although the northwesterly downslope flow regime will promote above-normal temperatures, the combination of light rain/snow chances and the presence of an established snow pack across much of the region should limit fire concerns. This synoptic regime is typically conducive for persistent dry conditions across the Southwest/Four Corners/Southern High Plains, which is supported by recent ensemble QPF probabilities (or lack thereof). While the potential for strong winds is lower, above-normal temperatures and dry conditions should support slowly drying fuels through the extended period. Some fire concerns may emerge across NM/west TX if a sufficiently strong upper disturbance can support a low-level mass response robust enough to support winds near critical thresholds, but confidence in this potential is low. ..Moore.. 02/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 011200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited through the extended period. Long-range ensemble guidance suggests that the upper-level synoptic regime will become characterized by persistent upper ridging across the northeastern Pacific/western U.S. with northwesterly flow across the eastern two-thirds of the country through next week. Low-amplitude upper disturbances embedded within the mean flow will support scattered rain/snow chances to parts of the country along with breezy conditions in the wake of any attendant surface lows/cold fronts. Both the deterministic ECMWF and GFS (and their respective ensemble families) suggest windy conditions (winds near/above 20 mph) are likely across the central to northern High Plains in the wake of such fronts during the D4/Mon to D6/Wed time frame. Although the northwesterly downslope flow regime will promote above-normal temperatures, the combination of light rain/snow chances and the presence of an established snow pack across much of the region should limit fire concerns. This synoptic regime is typically conducive for persistent dry conditions across the Southwest/Four Corners/Southern High Plains, which is supported by recent ensemble QPF probabilities (or lack thereof). While the potential for strong winds is lower, above-normal temperatures and dry conditions should support slowly drying fuels through the extended period. Some fire concerns may emerge across NM/west TX if a sufficiently strong upper disturbance can support a low-level mass response robust enough to support winds near critical thresholds, but confidence in this potential is low. ..Moore.. 02/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more