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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will envelop much of the CONUS on Friday. A prior cold frontal passage into the Gulf, and subsequent intrusion of Arctic air over much of the country, will result in cold, dry and stable conditions. As such, thunderstorm potential is not expected on Friday. ..Leitman.. 02/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will envelop much of the CONUS on Friday. A prior cold frontal passage into the Gulf, and subsequent intrusion of Arctic air over much of the country, will result in cold, dry and stable conditions. As such, thunderstorm potential is not expected on Friday. ..Leitman.. 02/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will envelop much of the CONUS on Friday. A prior cold frontal passage into the Gulf, and subsequent intrusion of Arctic air over much of the country, will result in cold, dry and stable conditions. As such, thunderstorm potential is not expected on Friday. ..Leitman.. 02/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will envelop much of the CONUS on Friday. A prior cold frontal passage into the Gulf, and subsequent intrusion of Arctic air over much of the country, will result in cold, dry and stable conditions. As such, thunderstorm potential is not expected on Friday. ..Leitman.. 02/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will envelop much of the CONUS on Friday. A prior cold frontal passage into the Gulf, and subsequent intrusion of Arctic air over much of the country, will result in cold, dry and stable conditions. As such, thunderstorm potential is not expected on Friday. ..Leitman.. 02/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will envelop much of the CONUS on Friday. A prior cold frontal passage into the Gulf, and subsequent intrusion of Arctic air over much of the country, will result in cold, dry and stable conditions. As such, thunderstorm potential is not expected on Friday. ..Leitman.. 02/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today through tonight. ...Discussion... It appears that mid-level flow will remain generally progressive across North America through this period. This is likely to include the eastward progression of a significant trough, and deepening embedded low, across the Ohio Valley and middle/northern Atlantic Seaboard through offshore western Atlantic by 12Z Friday. Upstream, the southern portions of splitting inland advancing troughing is forecast to continue digging southeast of the Great Basin through southern Rockies and adjacent portions of the Great Plains, while broad ridging builds inland to north, across and east of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies. Beneath this regime, models indicate that strong surface cyclogenesis will proceed, well offshore of the middle through northern Atlantic Seaboard. However, expansive, seasonably cold surface ridging, now entrenched across most areas to the east of the Rockies, likely will be slow to modify. To the west of the Continental Divide, while seasonably more moderate, and stable, conditions continue to prevail across most areas, insolation beneath mid-level cooling and forcing for ascent overspreading the eastern Great Basin into Colorado Rockies may contribute to weak boundary-layer destabilization this afternoon. While it appears possible that thermodynamic profiles could become conducive to convection capable of producing lighting, the extent to which this may occur still seems too limited to support 10 percent or greater thunder probabilities. ..Kerr/Thornton.. 02/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today through tonight. ...Discussion... It appears that mid-level flow will remain generally progressive across North America through this period. This is likely to include the eastward progression of a significant trough, and deepening embedded low, across the Ohio Valley and middle/northern Atlantic Seaboard through offshore western Atlantic by 12Z Friday. Upstream, the southern portions of splitting inland advancing troughing is forecast to continue digging southeast of the Great Basin through southern Rockies and adjacent portions of the Great Plains, while broad ridging builds inland to north, across and east of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies. Beneath this regime, models indicate that strong surface cyclogenesis will proceed, well offshore of the middle through northern Atlantic Seaboard. However, expansive, seasonably cold surface ridging, now entrenched across most areas to the east of the Rockies, likely will be slow to modify. To the west of the Continental Divide, while seasonably more moderate, and stable, conditions continue to prevail across most areas, insolation beneath mid-level cooling and forcing for ascent overspreading the eastern Great Basin into Colorado Rockies may contribute to weak boundary-layer destabilization this afternoon. While it appears possible that thermodynamic profiles could become conducive to convection capable of producing lighting, the extent to which this may occur still seems too limited to support 10 percent or greater thunder probabilities. ..Kerr/Thornton.. 02/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today through tonight. ...Discussion... It appears that mid-level flow will remain generally progressive across North America through this period. This is likely to include the eastward progression of a significant trough, and deepening embedded low, across the Ohio Valley and middle/northern Atlantic Seaboard through offshore western Atlantic by 12Z Friday. Upstream, the southern portions of splitting inland advancing troughing is forecast to continue digging southeast of the Great Basin through southern Rockies and adjacent portions of the Great Plains, while broad ridging builds inland to north, across and east of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies. Beneath this regime, models indicate that strong surface cyclogenesis will proceed, well offshore of the middle through northern Atlantic Seaboard. However, expansive, seasonably cold surface ridging, now entrenched across most areas to the east of the Rockies, likely will be slow to modify. To the west of the Continental Divide, while seasonably more moderate, and stable, conditions continue to prevail across most areas, insolation beneath mid-level cooling and forcing for ascent overspreading the eastern Great Basin into Colorado Rockies may contribute to weak boundary-layer destabilization this afternoon. While it appears possible that thermodynamic profiles could become conducive to convection capable of producing lighting, the extent to which this may occur still seems too limited to support 10 percent or greater thunder probabilities. ..Kerr/Thornton.. 02/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today through tonight. ...Discussion... It appears that mid-level flow will remain generally progressive across North America through this period. This is likely to include the eastward progression of a significant trough, and deepening embedded low, across the Ohio Valley and middle/northern Atlantic Seaboard through offshore western Atlantic by 12Z Friday. Upstream, the southern portions of splitting inland advancing troughing is forecast to continue digging southeast of the Great Basin through southern Rockies and adjacent portions of the Great Plains, while broad ridging builds inland to north, across and east of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies. Beneath this regime, models indicate that strong surface cyclogenesis will proceed, well offshore of the middle through northern Atlantic Seaboard. However, expansive, seasonably cold surface ridging, now entrenched across most areas to the east of the Rockies, likely will be slow to modify. To the west of the Continental Divide, while seasonably more moderate, and stable, conditions continue to prevail across most areas, insolation beneath mid-level cooling and forcing for ascent overspreading the eastern Great Basin into Colorado Rockies may contribute to weak boundary-layer destabilization this afternoon. While it appears possible that thermodynamic profiles could become conducive to convection capable of producing lighting, the extent to which this may occur still seems too limited to support 10 percent or greater thunder probabilities. ..Kerr/Thornton.. 02/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today through tonight. ...Discussion... It appears that mid-level flow will remain generally progressive across North America through this period. This is likely to include the eastward progression of a significant trough, and deepening embedded low, across the Ohio Valley and middle/northern Atlantic Seaboard through offshore western Atlantic by 12Z Friday. Upstream, the southern portions of splitting inland advancing troughing is forecast to continue digging southeast of the Great Basin through southern Rockies and adjacent portions of the Great Plains, while broad ridging builds inland to north, across and east of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies. Beneath this regime, models indicate that strong surface cyclogenesis will proceed, well offshore of the middle through northern Atlantic Seaboard. However, expansive, seasonably cold surface ridging, now entrenched across most areas to the east of the Rockies, likely will be slow to modify. To the west of the Continental Divide, while seasonably more moderate, and stable, conditions continue to prevail across most areas, insolation beneath mid-level cooling and forcing for ascent overspreading the eastern Great Basin into Colorado Rockies may contribute to weak boundary-layer destabilization this afternoon. While it appears possible that thermodynamic profiles could become conducive to convection capable of producing lighting, the extent to which this may occur still seems too limited to support 10 percent or greater thunder probabilities. ..Kerr/Thornton.. 02/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today through tonight. ...Discussion... It appears that mid-level flow will remain generally progressive across North America through this period. This is likely to include the eastward progression of a significant trough, and deepening embedded low, across the Ohio Valley and middle/northern Atlantic Seaboard through offshore western Atlantic by 12Z Friday. Upstream, the southern portions of splitting inland advancing troughing is forecast to continue digging southeast of the Great Basin through southern Rockies and adjacent portions of the Great Plains, while broad ridging builds inland to north, across and east of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies. Beneath this regime, models indicate that strong surface cyclogenesis will proceed, well offshore of the middle through northern Atlantic Seaboard. However, expansive, seasonably cold surface ridging, now entrenched across most areas to the east of the Rockies, likely will be slow to modify. To the west of the Continental Divide, while seasonably more moderate, and stable, conditions continue to prevail across most areas, insolation beneath mid-level cooling and forcing for ascent overspreading the eastern Great Basin into Colorado Rockies may contribute to weak boundary-layer destabilization this afternoon. While it appears possible that thermodynamic profiles could become conducive to convection capable of producing lighting, the extent to which this may occur still seems too limited to support 10 percent or greater thunder probabilities. ..Kerr/Thornton.. 02/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today through tonight. ...Discussion... It appears that mid-level flow will remain generally progressive across North America through this period. This is likely to include the eastward progression of a significant trough, and deepening embedded low, across the Ohio Valley and middle/northern Atlantic Seaboard through offshore western Atlantic by 12Z Friday. Upstream, the southern portions of splitting inland advancing troughing is forecast to continue digging southeast of the Great Basin through southern Rockies and adjacent portions of the Great Plains, while broad ridging builds inland to north, across and east of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies. Beneath this regime, models indicate that strong surface cyclogenesis will proceed, well offshore of the middle through northern Atlantic Seaboard. However, expansive, seasonably cold surface ridging, now entrenched across most areas to the east of the Rockies, likely will be slow to modify. To the west of the Continental Divide, while seasonably more moderate, and stable, conditions continue to prevail across most areas, insolation beneath mid-level cooling and forcing for ascent overspreading the eastern Great Basin into Colorado Rockies may contribute to weak boundary-layer destabilization this afternoon. While it appears possible that thermodynamic profiles could become conducive to convection capable of producing lighting, the extent to which this may occur still seems too limited to support 10 percent or greater thunder probabilities. ..Kerr/Thornton.. 02/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. tonight. ...01Z Update... ...Florida... Pre-frontal thunderstorm development over the eastern/southeastern Gulf has diminished with the passage of an apparent supporting mid-level short wave trough, which is now in the process of progressing east of the south Atlantic coast. As surface cyclogenesis commences and proceeds offshore of southern Mid Atlantic coastal areas later this evening and overnight, the trailing surface cold front may advance into the southern peninsula of Florida by 12Z Thursday. However, lingering warm/dry layers aloft across this region will tend to minimize the risk for new thunderstorm development. ...Great Basin... Beneath the mid-level cold pool of a vigorous short wave impulse progressing into portions of the Great Basin, destabilization aided by daytime heating has been sufficient to support weak convective development across portions of north central Nevada. While thermodynamic profiles have become supportive of some lightning during the past few hours, potential for additional convection capable of producing lightning is expected to become increasingly negligible with diurnal boundary-layer cooling. ..Kerr.. 02/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. tonight. ...01Z Update... ...Florida... Pre-frontal thunderstorm development over the eastern/southeastern Gulf has diminished with the passage of an apparent supporting mid-level short wave trough, which is now in the process of progressing east of the south Atlantic coast. As surface cyclogenesis commences and proceeds offshore of southern Mid Atlantic coastal areas later this evening and overnight, the trailing surface cold front may advance into the southern peninsula of Florida by 12Z Thursday. However, lingering warm/dry layers aloft across this region will tend to minimize the risk for new thunderstorm development. ...Great Basin... Beneath the mid-level cold pool of a vigorous short wave impulse progressing into portions of the Great Basin, destabilization aided by daytime heating has been sufficient to support weak convective development across portions of north central Nevada. While thermodynamic profiles have become supportive of some lightning during the past few hours, potential for additional convection capable of producing lightning is expected to become increasingly negligible with diurnal boundary-layer cooling. ..Kerr.. 02/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. tonight. ...01Z Update... ...Florida... Pre-frontal thunderstorm development over the eastern/southeastern Gulf has diminished with the passage of an apparent supporting mid-level short wave trough, which is now in the process of progressing east of the south Atlantic coast. As surface cyclogenesis commences and proceeds offshore of southern Mid Atlantic coastal areas later this evening and overnight, the trailing surface cold front may advance into the southern peninsula of Florida by 12Z Thursday. However, lingering warm/dry layers aloft across this region will tend to minimize the risk for new thunderstorm development. ...Great Basin... Beneath the mid-level cold pool of a vigorous short wave impulse progressing into portions of the Great Basin, destabilization aided by daytime heating has been sufficient to support weak convective development across portions of north central Nevada. While thermodynamic profiles have become supportive of some lightning during the past few hours, potential for additional convection capable of producing lightning is expected to become increasingly negligible with diurnal boundary-layer cooling. ..Kerr.. 02/20/2025 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Feb 19 23:51:01 UTC 2025.

No watches are valid as of Wed Feb 19 23:51:01 UTC 2025.

The Schuylkill County Municipal Authority, serving 30,000 residents in Pottsville and 21 other municipalities, last week asked customers to continue to limit their water usage until further notice. The seven reservoirs that the authority uses for its water supply were at an average of 66% of their total storage. The seven deep water wells were all low as rainfall has been low since the summer. The Schuylkill Haven Municipal Authority, serving about 3,300 customers in the borough, Cressona and some of North Manheim Township, also recently reiterated a plea for water conservation by its customers, asking for a 15 percent reduction. Republican Herald (Pottsville, Pa.), Feb 19, 2025

MD 0118 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0118 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Areas affected...Portions of northern/northeast North Carolina into southeast Virginia Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 191808Z - 192315Z SUMMARY...Snowfall rates around 1 in. per hour are possible within a snow band in parts of northeast North Carolina and southeast Virginia. Immediate coastal areas could see slightly higher rates. DISCUSSION...As mid-level ascent continues to increase across the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon, a coastal trough is expected to deepen offshore. By the evening, a deeper surface low should be present off the coast from the Carolinas. This process should promote low/mid-level frontogenesis across parts of the region. This already appears to be occurring in northern/northeast North Carolina into southeast Virginia. Wakefield, VA ASOS has reported heavy snow within the last 30-45 minutes. This band should continue to translate northeastward through the afternoon into the evening. Moderate to heavy snowfall is probable within this band with overall rates near 1 in. per hour anticipated. Some areas near the immediate coast may see slightly higher rates or at least longer duration snow as the frontogenetic lift should be maximized in these areas. Snowfall intensity will eventually decrease by late evening into Thursday morning. With southern extent, towards central North Carolina, more of a mix of wintry precipitation is possible along the edge of the snow band as there will be greater influence from the low/mid-level warm nose. ..Wendt.. 02/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK... LAT...LON 35927883 35887899 35857930 35957960 36087975 36247965 36497933 37137790 37447667 37427611 37347581 37037561 36597552 36257570 36077666 36027741 35957839 35927883 Read more