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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible Wednesday across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur across parts of Florida and east Georgia, and also from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...Synopsis... An intense upper trough, initially over the MS Valley this morning, and characterized by a 500 mb jet streak of 90+ kt, will pivot east across the eastern U.S. through the period. Through the morning and early afternoon hours, a southerly low level jet greater than 60 kt will overspread the Southeast coastal vicinity into the Mid-Atlantic and lower Great Lakes regions. At the surface, strong warm advection will transport 60s F dewpoints northward ahead of an eastward-progressing cold front from FL into southeast GA and as far north as southeast VA. Moisture will become more modest with northward extent into eastern OH/PA/western NY. The net result will be a modestly unstable airmass in the presence of intense deep-layer flow supporting a large area of strong to severe/damaging wind potential. Tornado potential also is possible, with greater potential expected from the Carolinas into southeast VA where low-level moisture will be greater. ...VA south to north FL... A QLCS is expected to be ongoing this morning, extending from western WV/VA and the western Carolinas into southeast GA and north FL. Diurnal heating will be limited, and low-level lapse rates will remain poor. This will pose some challenge for purely surface-based convection. Nevertheless, very strong large-scale ascent amid intense wind profiles will likely be sufficient for swaths of damaging gusts. Furthermore, forecast soundings indicate the presence of midlevel dry air just ahead of the eastward-advancing QLCS across the Carolinas and VA. This could further aid in some downward transport of stronger winds. Where 60s F dewpoints are achieved, QLCS tornadoes also will be possible, especially if backed low-level flow can be maintained to further enhance low-level SRH. While instability will likely be greater with southward extent, large-scale ascent will be lifting north of the GA/FL vicinity. Strong deep-layer flow will still be in place, and coupled with modest instability, this should result in some continued organized convection capable of strong to severe gusts. ...Lower Great Lakes Vicinity... Further north, instability will be quite limited given a cooler boundary layer and dewpoints generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s F. However, cold temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and foster MUCAPE values up to 500 J/kg. Additionally, closer to the surface low, vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt, will support isolated low-topped supercells and perhaps linear segments. Strong to severe gusts, isolated hail and perhaps a tornado will be possible with this activity this afternoon. ..Leitman/Squitieri.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible Wednesday across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur across parts of Florida and east Georgia, and also from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...Synopsis... An intense upper trough, initially over the MS Valley this morning, and characterized by a 500 mb jet streak of 90+ kt, will pivot east across the eastern U.S. through the period. Through the morning and early afternoon hours, a southerly low level jet greater than 60 kt will overspread the Southeast coastal vicinity into the Mid-Atlantic and lower Great Lakes regions. At the surface, strong warm advection will transport 60s F dewpoints northward ahead of an eastward-progressing cold front from FL into southeast GA and as far north as southeast VA. Moisture will become more modest with northward extent into eastern OH/PA/western NY. The net result will be a modestly unstable airmass in the presence of intense deep-layer flow supporting a large area of strong to severe/damaging wind potential. Tornado potential also is possible, with greater potential expected from the Carolinas into southeast VA where low-level moisture will be greater. ...VA south to north FL... A QLCS is expected to be ongoing this morning, extending from western WV/VA and the western Carolinas into southeast GA and north FL. Diurnal heating will be limited, and low-level lapse rates will remain poor. This will pose some challenge for purely surface-based convection. Nevertheless, very strong large-scale ascent amid intense wind profiles will likely be sufficient for swaths of damaging gusts. Furthermore, forecast soundings indicate the presence of midlevel dry air just ahead of the eastward-advancing QLCS across the Carolinas and VA. This could further aid in some downward transport of stronger winds. Where 60s F dewpoints are achieved, QLCS tornadoes also will be possible, especially if backed low-level flow can be maintained to further enhance low-level SRH. While instability will likely be greater with southward extent, large-scale ascent will be lifting north of the GA/FL vicinity. Strong deep-layer flow will still be in place, and coupled with modest instability, this should result in some continued organized convection capable of strong to severe gusts. ...Lower Great Lakes Vicinity... Further north, instability will be quite limited given a cooler boundary layer and dewpoints generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s F. However, cold temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and foster MUCAPE values up to 500 J/kg. Additionally, closer to the surface low, vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt, will support isolated low-topped supercells and perhaps linear segments. Strong to severe gusts, isolated hail and perhaps a tornado will be possible with this activity this afternoon. ..Leitman/Squitieri.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible Wednesday across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur across parts of Florida and east Georgia, and also from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...Synopsis... An intense upper trough, initially over the MS Valley this morning, and characterized by a 500 mb jet streak of 90+ kt, will pivot east across the eastern U.S. through the period. Through the morning and early afternoon hours, a southerly low level jet greater than 60 kt will overspread the Southeast coastal vicinity into the Mid-Atlantic and lower Great Lakes regions. At the surface, strong warm advection will transport 60s F dewpoints northward ahead of an eastward-progressing cold front from FL into southeast GA and as far north as southeast VA. Moisture will become more modest with northward extent into eastern OH/PA/western NY. The net result will be a modestly unstable airmass in the presence of intense deep-layer flow supporting a large area of strong to severe/damaging wind potential. Tornado potential also is possible, with greater potential expected from the Carolinas into southeast VA where low-level moisture will be greater. ...VA south to north FL... A QLCS is expected to be ongoing this morning, extending from western WV/VA and the western Carolinas into southeast GA and north FL. Diurnal heating will be limited, and low-level lapse rates will remain poor. This will pose some challenge for purely surface-based convection. Nevertheless, very strong large-scale ascent amid intense wind profiles will likely be sufficient for swaths of damaging gusts. Furthermore, forecast soundings indicate the presence of midlevel dry air just ahead of the eastward-advancing QLCS across the Carolinas and VA. This could further aid in some downward transport of stronger winds. Where 60s F dewpoints are achieved, QLCS tornadoes also will be possible, especially if backed low-level flow can be maintained to further enhance low-level SRH. While instability will likely be greater with southward extent, large-scale ascent will be lifting north of the GA/FL vicinity. Strong deep-layer flow will still be in place, and coupled with modest instability, this should result in some continued organized convection capable of strong to severe gusts. ...Lower Great Lakes Vicinity... Further north, instability will be quite limited given a cooler boundary layer and dewpoints generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s F. However, cold temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and foster MUCAPE values up to 500 J/kg. Additionally, closer to the surface low, vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt, will support isolated low-topped supercells and perhaps linear segments. Strong to severe gusts, isolated hail and perhaps a tornado will be possible with this activity this afternoon. ..Leitman/Squitieri.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible Wednesday across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur across parts of Florida and east Georgia, and also from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...Synopsis... An intense upper trough, initially over the MS Valley this morning, and characterized by a 500 mb jet streak of 90+ kt, will pivot east across the eastern U.S. through the period. Through the morning and early afternoon hours, a southerly low level jet greater than 60 kt will overspread the Southeast coastal vicinity into the Mid-Atlantic and lower Great Lakes regions. At the surface, strong warm advection will transport 60s F dewpoints northward ahead of an eastward-progressing cold front from FL into southeast GA and as far north as southeast VA. Moisture will become more modest with northward extent into eastern OH/PA/western NY. The net result will be a modestly unstable airmass in the presence of intense deep-layer flow supporting a large area of strong to severe/damaging wind potential. Tornado potential also is possible, with greater potential expected from the Carolinas into southeast VA where low-level moisture will be greater. ...VA south to north FL... A QLCS is expected to be ongoing this morning, extending from western WV/VA and the western Carolinas into southeast GA and north FL. Diurnal heating will be limited, and low-level lapse rates will remain poor. This will pose some challenge for purely surface-based convection. Nevertheless, very strong large-scale ascent amid intense wind profiles will likely be sufficient for swaths of damaging gusts. Furthermore, forecast soundings indicate the presence of midlevel dry air just ahead of the eastward-advancing QLCS across the Carolinas and VA. This could further aid in some downward transport of stronger winds. Where 60s F dewpoints are achieved, QLCS tornadoes also will be possible, especially if backed low-level flow can be maintained to further enhance low-level SRH. While instability will likely be greater with southward extent, large-scale ascent will be lifting north of the GA/FL vicinity. Strong deep-layer flow will still be in place, and coupled with modest instability, this should result in some continued organized convection capable of strong to severe gusts. ...Lower Great Lakes Vicinity... Further north, instability will be quite limited given a cooler boundary layer and dewpoints generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s F. However, cold temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and foster MUCAPE values up to 500 J/kg. Additionally, closer to the surface low, vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt, will support isolated low-topped supercells and perhaps linear segments. Strong to severe gusts, isolated hail and perhaps a tornado will be possible with this activity this afternoon. ..Leitman/Squitieri.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible Wednesday across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur across parts of Florida and east Georgia, and also from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...Synopsis... An intense upper trough, initially over the MS Valley this morning, and characterized by a 500 mb jet streak of 90+ kt, will pivot east across the eastern U.S. through the period. Through the morning and early afternoon hours, a southerly low level jet greater than 60 kt will overspread the Southeast coastal vicinity into the Mid-Atlantic and lower Great Lakes regions. At the surface, strong warm advection will transport 60s F dewpoints northward ahead of an eastward-progressing cold front from FL into southeast GA and as far north as southeast VA. Moisture will become more modest with northward extent into eastern OH/PA/western NY. The net result will be a modestly unstable airmass in the presence of intense deep-layer flow supporting a large area of strong to severe/damaging wind potential. Tornado potential also is possible, with greater potential expected from the Carolinas into southeast VA where low-level moisture will be greater. ...VA south to north FL... A QLCS is expected to be ongoing this morning, extending from western WV/VA and the western Carolinas into southeast GA and north FL. Diurnal heating will be limited, and low-level lapse rates will remain poor. This will pose some challenge for purely surface-based convection. Nevertheless, very strong large-scale ascent amid intense wind profiles will likely be sufficient for swaths of damaging gusts. Furthermore, forecast soundings indicate the presence of midlevel dry air just ahead of the eastward-advancing QLCS across the Carolinas and VA. This could further aid in some downward transport of stronger winds. Where 60s F dewpoints are achieved, QLCS tornadoes also will be possible, especially if backed low-level flow can be maintained to further enhance low-level SRH. While instability will likely be greater with southward extent, large-scale ascent will be lifting north of the GA/FL vicinity. Strong deep-layer flow will still be in place, and coupled with modest instability, this should result in some continued organized convection capable of strong to severe gusts. ...Lower Great Lakes Vicinity... Further north, instability will be quite limited given a cooler boundary layer and dewpoints generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s F. However, cold temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and foster MUCAPE values up to 500 J/kg. Additionally, closer to the surface low, vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt, will support isolated low-topped supercells and perhaps linear segments. Strong to severe gusts, isolated hail and perhaps a tornado will be possible with this activity this afternoon. ..Leitman/Squitieri.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible Wednesday across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur across parts of Florida and east Georgia, and also from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...Synopsis... An intense upper trough, initially over the MS Valley this morning, and characterized by a 500 mb jet streak of 90+ kt, will pivot east across the eastern U.S. through the period. Through the morning and early afternoon hours, a southerly low level jet greater than 60 kt will overspread the Southeast coastal vicinity into the Mid-Atlantic and lower Great Lakes regions. At the surface, strong warm advection will transport 60s F dewpoints northward ahead of an eastward-progressing cold front from FL into southeast GA and as far north as southeast VA. Moisture will become more modest with northward extent into eastern OH/PA/western NY. The net result will be a modestly unstable airmass in the presence of intense deep-layer flow supporting a large area of strong to severe/damaging wind potential. Tornado potential also is possible, with greater potential expected from the Carolinas into southeast VA where low-level moisture will be greater. ...VA south to north FL... A QLCS is expected to be ongoing this morning, extending from western WV/VA and the western Carolinas into southeast GA and north FL. Diurnal heating will be limited, and low-level lapse rates will remain poor. This will pose some challenge for purely surface-based convection. Nevertheless, very strong large-scale ascent amid intense wind profiles will likely be sufficient for swaths of damaging gusts. Furthermore, forecast soundings indicate the presence of midlevel dry air just ahead of the eastward-advancing QLCS across the Carolinas and VA. This could further aid in some downward transport of stronger winds. Where 60s F dewpoints are achieved, QLCS tornadoes also will be possible, especially if backed low-level flow can be maintained to further enhance low-level SRH. While instability will likely be greater with southward extent, large-scale ascent will be lifting north of the GA/FL vicinity. Strong deep-layer flow will still be in place, and coupled with modest instability, this should result in some continued organized convection capable of strong to severe gusts. ...Lower Great Lakes Vicinity... Further north, instability will be quite limited given a cooler boundary layer and dewpoints generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s F. However, cold temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and foster MUCAPE values up to 500 J/kg. Additionally, closer to the surface low, vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt, will support isolated low-topped supercells and perhaps linear segments. Strong to severe gusts, isolated hail and perhaps a tornado will be possible with this activity this afternoon. ..Leitman/Squitieri.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible Wednesday across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur across parts of Florida and east Georgia, and also from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...Synopsis... An intense upper trough, initially over the MS Valley this morning, and characterized by a 500 mb jet streak of 90+ kt, will pivot east across the eastern U.S. through the period. Through the morning and early afternoon hours, a southerly low level jet greater than 60 kt will overspread the Southeast coastal vicinity into the Mid-Atlantic and lower Great Lakes regions. At the surface, strong warm advection will transport 60s F dewpoints northward ahead of an eastward-progressing cold front from FL into southeast GA and as far north as southeast VA. Moisture will become more modest with northward extent into eastern OH/PA/western NY. The net result will be a modestly unstable airmass in the presence of intense deep-layer flow supporting a large area of strong to severe/damaging wind potential. Tornado potential also is possible, with greater potential expected from the Carolinas into southeast VA where low-level moisture will be greater. ...VA south to north FL... A QLCS is expected to be ongoing this morning, extending from western WV/VA and the western Carolinas into southeast GA and north FL. Diurnal heating will be limited, and low-level lapse rates will remain poor. This will pose some challenge for purely surface-based convection. Nevertheless, very strong large-scale ascent amid intense wind profiles will likely be sufficient for swaths of damaging gusts. Furthermore, forecast soundings indicate the presence of midlevel dry air just ahead of the eastward-advancing QLCS across the Carolinas and VA. This could further aid in some downward transport of stronger winds. Where 60s F dewpoints are achieved, QLCS tornadoes also will be possible, especially if backed low-level flow can be maintained to further enhance low-level SRH. While instability will likely be greater with southward extent, large-scale ascent will be lifting north of the GA/FL vicinity. Strong deep-layer flow will still be in place, and coupled with modest instability, this should result in some continued organized convection capable of strong to severe gusts. ...Lower Great Lakes Vicinity... Further north, instability will be quite limited given a cooler boundary layer and dewpoints generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s F. However, cold temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and foster MUCAPE values up to 500 J/kg. Additionally, closer to the surface low, vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt, will support isolated low-topped supercells and perhaps linear segments. Strong to severe gusts, isolated hail and perhaps a tornado will be possible with this activity this afternoon. ..Leitman/Squitieri.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible Wednesday across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur across parts of Florida and east Georgia, and also from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...Synopsis... An intense upper trough, initially over the MS Valley this morning, and characterized by a 500 mb jet streak of 90+ kt, will pivot east across the eastern U.S. through the period. Through the morning and early afternoon hours, a southerly low level jet greater than 60 kt will overspread the Southeast coastal vicinity into the Mid-Atlantic and lower Great Lakes regions. At the surface, strong warm advection will transport 60s F dewpoints northward ahead of an eastward-progressing cold front from FL into southeast GA and as far north as southeast VA. Moisture will become more modest with northward extent into eastern OH/PA/western NY. The net result will be a modestly unstable airmass in the presence of intense deep-layer flow supporting a large area of strong to severe/damaging wind potential. Tornado potential also is possible, with greater potential expected from the Carolinas into southeast VA where low-level moisture will be greater. ...VA south to north FL... A QLCS is expected to be ongoing this morning, extending from western WV/VA and the western Carolinas into southeast GA and north FL. Diurnal heating will be limited, and low-level lapse rates will remain poor. This will pose some challenge for purely surface-based convection. Nevertheless, very strong large-scale ascent amid intense wind profiles will likely be sufficient for swaths of damaging gusts. Furthermore, forecast soundings indicate the presence of midlevel dry air just ahead of the eastward-advancing QLCS across the Carolinas and VA. This could further aid in some downward transport of stronger winds. Where 60s F dewpoints are achieved, QLCS tornadoes also will be possible, especially if backed low-level flow can be maintained to further enhance low-level SRH. While instability will likely be greater with southward extent, large-scale ascent will be lifting north of the GA/FL vicinity. Strong deep-layer flow will still be in place, and coupled with modest instability, this should result in some continued organized convection capable of strong to severe gusts. ...Lower Great Lakes Vicinity... Further north, instability will be quite limited given a cooler boundary layer and dewpoints generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s F. However, cold temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and foster MUCAPE values up to 500 J/kg. Additionally, closer to the surface low, vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt, will support isolated low-topped supercells and perhaps linear segments. Strong to severe gusts, isolated hail and perhaps a tornado will be possible with this activity this afternoon. ..Leitman/Squitieri.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible Wednesday across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur across parts of Florida and east Georgia, and also from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...Synopsis... An intense upper trough, initially over the MS Valley this morning, and characterized by a 500 mb jet streak of 90+ kt, will pivot east across the eastern U.S. through the period. Through the morning and early afternoon hours, a southerly low level jet greater than 60 kt will overspread the Southeast coastal vicinity into the Mid-Atlantic and lower Great Lakes regions. At the surface, strong warm advection will transport 60s F dewpoints northward ahead of an eastward-progressing cold front from FL into southeast GA and as far north as southeast VA. Moisture will become more modest with northward extent into eastern OH/PA/western NY. The net result will be a modestly unstable airmass in the presence of intense deep-layer flow supporting a large area of strong to severe/damaging wind potential. Tornado potential also is possible, with greater potential expected from the Carolinas into southeast VA where low-level moisture will be greater. ...VA south to north FL... A QLCS is expected to be ongoing this morning, extending from western WV/VA and the western Carolinas into southeast GA and north FL. Diurnal heating will be limited, and low-level lapse rates will remain poor. This will pose some challenge for purely surface-based convection. Nevertheless, very strong large-scale ascent amid intense wind profiles will likely be sufficient for swaths of damaging gusts. Furthermore, forecast soundings indicate the presence of midlevel dry air just ahead of the eastward-advancing QLCS across the Carolinas and VA. This could further aid in some downward transport of stronger winds. Where 60s F dewpoints are achieved, QLCS tornadoes also will be possible, especially if backed low-level flow can be maintained to further enhance low-level SRH. While instability will likely be greater with southward extent, large-scale ascent will be lifting north of the GA/FL vicinity. Strong deep-layer flow will still be in place, and coupled with modest instability, this should result in some continued organized convection capable of strong to severe gusts. ...Lower Great Lakes Vicinity... Further north, instability will be quite limited given a cooler boundary layer and dewpoints generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s F. However, cold temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and foster MUCAPE values up to 500 J/kg. Additionally, closer to the surface low, vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt, will support isolated low-topped supercells and perhaps linear segments. Strong to severe gusts, isolated hail and perhaps a tornado will be possible with this activity this afternoon. ..Leitman/Squitieri.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible Wednesday across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur across parts of Florida and east Georgia, and also from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...Synopsis... An intense upper trough, initially over the MS Valley this morning, and characterized by a 500 mb jet streak of 90+ kt, will pivot east across the eastern U.S. through the period. Through the morning and early afternoon hours, a southerly low level jet greater than 60 kt will overspread the Southeast coastal vicinity into the Mid-Atlantic and lower Great Lakes regions. At the surface, strong warm advection will transport 60s F dewpoints northward ahead of an eastward-progressing cold front from FL into southeast GA and as far north as southeast VA. Moisture will become more modest with northward extent into eastern OH/PA/western NY. The net result will be a modestly unstable airmass in the presence of intense deep-layer flow supporting a large area of strong to severe/damaging wind potential. Tornado potential also is possible, with greater potential expected from the Carolinas into southeast VA where low-level moisture will be greater. ...VA south to north FL... A QLCS is expected to be ongoing this morning, extending from western WV/VA and the western Carolinas into southeast GA and north FL. Diurnal heating will be limited, and low-level lapse rates will remain poor. This will pose some challenge for purely surface-based convection. Nevertheless, very strong large-scale ascent amid intense wind profiles will likely be sufficient for swaths of damaging gusts. Furthermore, forecast soundings indicate the presence of midlevel dry air just ahead of the eastward-advancing QLCS across the Carolinas and VA. This could further aid in some downward transport of stronger winds. Where 60s F dewpoints are achieved, QLCS tornadoes also will be possible, especially if backed low-level flow can be maintained to further enhance low-level SRH. While instability will likely be greater with southward extent, large-scale ascent will be lifting north of the GA/FL vicinity. Strong deep-layer flow will still be in place, and coupled with modest instability, this should result in some continued organized convection capable of strong to severe gusts. ...Lower Great Lakes Vicinity... Further north, instability will be quite limited given a cooler boundary layer and dewpoints generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s F. However, cold temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and foster MUCAPE values up to 500 J/kg. Additionally, closer to the surface low, vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt, will support isolated low-topped supercells and perhaps linear segments. Strong to severe gusts, isolated hail and perhaps a tornado will be possible with this activity this afternoon. ..Leitman/Squitieri.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible Wednesday across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur across parts of Florida and east Georgia, and also from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...Synopsis... An intense upper trough, initially over the MS Valley this morning, and characterized by a 500 mb jet streak of 90+ kt, will pivot east across the eastern U.S. through the period. Through the morning and early afternoon hours, a southerly low level jet greater than 60 kt will overspread the Southeast coastal vicinity into the Mid-Atlantic and lower Great Lakes regions. At the surface, strong warm advection will transport 60s F dewpoints northward ahead of an eastward-progressing cold front from FL into southeast GA and as far north as southeast VA. Moisture will become more modest with northward extent into eastern OH/PA/western NY. The net result will be a modestly unstable airmass in the presence of intense deep-layer flow supporting a large area of strong to severe/damaging wind potential. Tornado potential also is possible, with greater potential expected from the Carolinas into southeast VA where low-level moisture will be greater. ...VA south to north FL... A QLCS is expected to be ongoing this morning, extending from western WV/VA and the western Carolinas into southeast GA and north FL. Diurnal heating will be limited, and low-level lapse rates will remain poor. This will pose some challenge for purely surface-based convection. Nevertheless, very strong large-scale ascent amid intense wind profiles will likely be sufficient for swaths of damaging gusts. Furthermore, forecast soundings indicate the presence of midlevel dry air just ahead of the eastward-advancing QLCS across the Carolinas and VA. This could further aid in some downward transport of stronger winds. Where 60s F dewpoints are achieved, QLCS tornadoes also will be possible, especially if backed low-level flow can be maintained to further enhance low-level SRH. While instability will likely be greater with southward extent, large-scale ascent will be lifting north of the GA/FL vicinity. Strong deep-layer flow will still be in place, and coupled with modest instability, this should result in some continued organized convection capable of strong to severe gusts. ...Lower Great Lakes Vicinity... Further north, instability will be quite limited given a cooler boundary layer and dewpoints generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s F. However, cold temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and foster MUCAPE values up to 500 J/kg. Additionally, closer to the surface low, vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt, will support isolated low-topped supercells and perhaps linear segments. Strong to severe gusts, isolated hail and perhaps a tornado will be possible with this activity this afternoon. ..Leitman/Squitieri.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible Wednesday across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur across parts of Florida and east Georgia, and also from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...Synopsis... An intense upper trough, initially over the MS Valley this morning, and characterized by a 500 mb jet streak of 90+ kt, will pivot east across the eastern U.S. through the period. Through the morning and early afternoon hours, a southerly low level jet greater than 60 kt will overspread the Southeast coastal vicinity into the Mid-Atlantic and lower Great Lakes regions. At the surface, strong warm advection will transport 60s F dewpoints northward ahead of an eastward-progressing cold front from FL into southeast GA and as far north as southeast VA. Moisture will become more modest with northward extent into eastern OH/PA/western NY. The net result will be a modestly unstable airmass in the presence of intense deep-layer flow supporting a large area of strong to severe/damaging wind potential. Tornado potential also is possible, with greater potential expected from the Carolinas into southeast VA where low-level moisture will be greater. ...VA south to north FL... A QLCS is expected to be ongoing this morning, extending from western WV/VA and the western Carolinas into southeast GA and north FL. Diurnal heating will be limited, and low-level lapse rates will remain poor. This will pose some challenge for purely surface-based convection. Nevertheless, very strong large-scale ascent amid intense wind profiles will likely be sufficient for swaths of damaging gusts. Furthermore, forecast soundings indicate the presence of midlevel dry air just ahead of the eastward-advancing QLCS across the Carolinas and VA. This could further aid in some downward transport of stronger winds. Where 60s F dewpoints are achieved, QLCS tornadoes also will be possible, especially if backed low-level flow can be maintained to further enhance low-level SRH. While instability will likely be greater with southward extent, large-scale ascent will be lifting north of the GA/FL vicinity. Strong deep-layer flow will still be in place, and coupled with modest instability, this should result in some continued organized convection capable of strong to severe gusts. ...Lower Great Lakes Vicinity... Further north, instability will be quite limited given a cooler boundary layer and dewpoints generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s F. However, cold temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and foster MUCAPE values up to 500 J/kg. Additionally, closer to the surface low, vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt, will support isolated low-topped supercells and perhaps linear segments. Strong to severe gusts, isolated hail and perhaps a tornado will be possible with this activity this afternoon. ..Leitman/Squitieri.. 03/05/2025 Read more

MD 0142 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0142 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Areas affected...Florida Panhandle...Southeast Alabama...Southwest Georgia Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 050428Z - 050530Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...New Tornado Watch appears warranted. DISCUSSION...Mid 60s surface dew points have nosed inland ahead of the squall line across the western Florida Panhandle. This air mass is providing a bit more buoyancy along southern portions of the MCS, which may enhance updraft strength and potential severe. Forecast soundings suggest near-surface based convection with 65 dew point, but lifted parcels are still likely a bit elevated. Latest buoy data suggests 67 dew point is just offshore and this may advance inland ahead of the line. Given the very strong shear, there is increasing concern for damaging winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes. New Tornado watch will likely be issued soon. ..Darrow/Guyer.. 03/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB... LAT...LON 29758745 31828581 31428368 29258512 29758745 Read more

MD 0140 CONCERNING BLIZZARD FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 0140 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0720 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Areas affected...portions of extreme eastern Nebraska into western Iowa Concerning...Blizzard Valid 050120Z - 050515Z SUMMARY...Blizzard conditions are expected to become more common through early tonight. Sustained winds over 40 mph are possible amid intermittent bouts of moderate to heavy snow and quarter-mile visibilities. DISCUSSION...A surface low, analyzed just east-northeast of the Kansas City metropolitan area, continues to drift northeast while gradually deepening. The northwest quadrant of this low continues to overspread portions of extreme eastern NE into western IA, where deep-layer cold-air advection is supporting the transition from rain to snow. Surface observations and correlation coefficient data from KOAX NEXRAD radar indicate the rain/snow transition line roughly from Crawford to Fremont Counties in IA, with surface northwesterly winds intensifying to over 30 kts west of this line. The expectation is for sustained surface winds to reach 40 mph in spots, with increasing snowfall rates (perhaps briefly reaching 1 inch/hour) over the next few hours. Such conditions may reduce visibility to around a quarter mile or less. Additionally, the latest high-resolution guidance consensus suggests that blizzard conditions are most likely across western IA in the 02-08Z time frame. ..Squitieri.. 03/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX... LAT...LON 40249688 40929684 41939659 42419633 43079549 43309480 43189418 42959391 42589392 41989430 41179480 40699525 40339576 40109647 40249688 Read more

WW 0022 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 22 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW PNS TO 10 E MGM. ..SPC..03/05/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 22 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC013-035-039-041-051-053-101-050540- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW ELMORE ESCAMBIA MONTGOMERY FLC033-091-113-050540- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA GMZ633-634-635-636-650-655-050540- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE PERDIDO BAY AREA Read more

WW 0022 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 22 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW PNS TO 10 E MGM. ..SPC..03/05/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 22 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC013-035-039-041-051-053-101-050540- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW ELMORE ESCAMBIA MONTGOMERY FLC033-091-113-050540- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA GMZ633-634-635-636-650-655-050540- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE PERDIDO BAY AREA Read more

WW 0022 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 22 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW PNS TO 10 E MGM. ..SPC..03/05/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 22 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC013-035-039-041-051-053-101-050540- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW ELMORE ESCAMBIA MONTGOMERY FLC033-091-113-050540- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA GMZ633-634-635-636-650-655-050540- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE PERDIDO BAY AREA Read more

WW 0022 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 22 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW PNS TO 10 E MGM. ..SPC..03/05/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 22 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC013-035-039-041-051-053-101-050540- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW ELMORE ESCAMBIA MONTGOMERY FLC033-091-113-050540- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA GMZ633-634-635-636-650-655-050540- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE PERDIDO BAY AREA Read more

WW 0022 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 22 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW PNS TO 10 E MGM. ..SPC..03/05/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 22 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC013-035-039-041-051-053-101-050540- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW ELMORE ESCAMBIA MONTGOMERY FLC033-091-113-050540- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA GMZ633-634-635-636-650-655-050540- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE PERDIDO BAY AREA Read more

WW 0022 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 22 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW PNS TO 10 E MGM. ..SPC..03/05/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 22 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC013-035-039-041-051-053-101-050540- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW ELMORE ESCAMBIA MONTGOMERY FLC033-091-113-050540- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA GMZ633-634-635-636-650-655-050540- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE PERDIDO BAY AREA Read more