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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will build over the Great Plains as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic, with another mid-level trough amplifying along the West Coast today. As a strong surface cyclone ejects into Ontario from the Great Lakes region, strong and somewhat dry northwesterly surface flow will overspread portions of the southern Plains. However, marginally supportive RH atop fuels that have recently received appreciable rainfall suggests that Elevated highlights are not currently warranted. Dry southerly flow will also prevail across portions of eastern New Mexico, but overlapping Elevated conditions should be localized at best. ..Squitieri.. 03/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will build over the Great Plains as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic, with another mid-level trough amplifying along the West Coast today. As a strong surface cyclone ejects into Ontario from the Great Lakes region, strong and somewhat dry northwesterly surface flow will overspread portions of the southern Plains. However, marginally supportive RH atop fuels that have recently received appreciable rainfall suggests that Elevated highlights are not currently warranted. Dry southerly flow will also prevail across portions of eastern New Mexico, but overlapping Elevated conditions should be localized at best. ..Squitieri.. 03/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will build over the Great Plains as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic, with another mid-level trough amplifying along the West Coast today. As a strong surface cyclone ejects into Ontario from the Great Lakes region, strong and somewhat dry northwesterly surface flow will overspread portions of the southern Plains. However, marginally supportive RH atop fuels that have recently received appreciable rainfall suggests that Elevated highlights are not currently warranted. Dry southerly flow will also prevail across portions of eastern New Mexico, but overlapping Elevated conditions should be localized at best. ..Squitieri.. 03/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will build over the Great Plains as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic, with another mid-level trough amplifying along the West Coast today. As a strong surface cyclone ejects into Ontario from the Great Lakes region, strong and somewhat dry northwesterly surface flow will overspread portions of the southern Plains. However, marginally supportive RH atop fuels that have recently received appreciable rainfall suggests that Elevated highlights are not currently warranted. Dry southerly flow will also prevail across portions of eastern New Mexico, but overlapping Elevated conditions should be localized at best. ..Squitieri.. 03/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will build over the Great Plains as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic, with another mid-level trough amplifying along the West Coast today. As a strong surface cyclone ejects into Ontario from the Great Lakes region, strong and somewhat dry northwesterly surface flow will overspread portions of the southern Plains. However, marginally supportive RH atop fuels that have recently received appreciable rainfall suggests that Elevated highlights are not currently warranted. Dry southerly flow will also prevail across portions of eastern New Mexico, but overlapping Elevated conditions should be localized at best. ..Squitieri.. 03/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will build over the Great Plains as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic, with another mid-level trough amplifying along the West Coast today. As a strong surface cyclone ejects into Ontario from the Great Lakes region, strong and somewhat dry northwesterly surface flow will overspread portions of the southern Plains. However, marginally supportive RH atop fuels that have recently received appreciable rainfall suggests that Elevated highlights are not currently warranted. Dry southerly flow will also prevail across portions of eastern New Mexico, but overlapping Elevated conditions should be localized at best. ..Squitieri.. 03/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will build over the Great Plains as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic, with another mid-level trough amplifying along the West Coast today. As a strong surface cyclone ejects into Ontario from the Great Lakes region, strong and somewhat dry northwesterly surface flow will overspread portions of the southern Plains. However, marginally supportive RH atop fuels that have recently received appreciable rainfall suggests that Elevated highlights are not currently warranted. Dry southerly flow will also prevail across portions of eastern New Mexico, but overlapping Elevated conditions should be localized at best. ..Squitieri.. 03/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will build over the Great Plains as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic, with another mid-level trough amplifying along the West Coast today. As a strong surface cyclone ejects into Ontario from the Great Lakes region, strong and somewhat dry northwesterly surface flow will overspread portions of the southern Plains. However, marginally supportive RH atop fuels that have recently received appreciable rainfall suggests that Elevated highlights are not currently warranted. Dry southerly flow will also prevail across portions of eastern New Mexico, but overlapping Elevated conditions should be localized at best. ..Squitieri.. 03/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will build over the Great Plains as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic, with another mid-level trough amplifying along the West Coast today. As a strong surface cyclone ejects into Ontario from the Great Lakes region, strong and somewhat dry northwesterly surface flow will overspread portions of the southern Plains. However, marginally supportive RH atop fuels that have recently received appreciable rainfall suggests that Elevated highlights are not currently warranted. Dry southerly flow will also prevail across portions of eastern New Mexico, but overlapping Elevated conditions should be localized at best. ..Squitieri.. 03/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will build over the Great Plains as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic, with another mid-level trough amplifying along the West Coast today. As a strong surface cyclone ejects into Ontario from the Great Lakes region, strong and somewhat dry northwesterly surface flow will overspread portions of the southern Plains. However, marginally supportive RH atop fuels that have recently received appreciable rainfall suggests that Elevated highlights are not currently warranted. Dry southerly flow will also prevail across portions of eastern New Mexico, but overlapping Elevated conditions should be localized at best. ..Squitieri.. 03/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorm activity is possible across parts of central California and the Great Basin into the Southern Rockies Thursday into Thursday evening, but the risk for severe thunderstorms appears neglible. ...Discussion... The center of a broad and deep, occluding cyclone is forecast to progress across the lower Great Lakes into southwestern Quebec by 12Z Thursday, when a significant trailing cold front may be offshore all the Atlantic Seaboard but perhaps eastern portions of New England. It appears that the southwestern flank of this front will be in the process of stalling and weakening across the western Gulf Basin, and models indicate that the boundary layer may undergo substantive modification across the southwestern Gulf toward the lower Texas coast vicinity late Thursday through Thursday night. This may be accompanied by weak inland boundary-layer moisture return beneath warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air across the southern Great Plains, as renewed cyclogenesis occurs to the lee of the Colorado Rockies. Within and beneath a generally confluent mid-level regime to the east of the Rockies, the cyclone, and supporting mid-level short wave perturbation emerging from larger-scale troughing advancing inland of the Pacific coast, are likely to weaken while progressing eastward through the central Great Plains Thursday night into early Friday. Trailing the lead short wave, models indicate that a more prominent short wave trough will dig inland across central/southern California, and into the lower Colorado Valley by 12Z Friday. ...Central California through southern Great Basin/Rockies... A swath of stronger mid-level cooling overspreading the region in association with the short wave developments is likely to contribute to weak destabilization with daytime heating. It appears that this will become sufficient to support scattered weak afternoon and evening thunderstorm activity, aided by areas of dynamic and orographic forcing for ascent. ...Cape Cod vicinity... Forecast soundings, perhaps most notably the NAM, suggest that lift associated with frontal forcing and/or pre-frontal low-level warm advection may still be contributing to elevated convective development capable of producing lightning around 12Z Thursday, before spreading away from the coast by mid/late morning. ..Kerr.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorm activity is possible across parts of central California and the Great Basin into the Southern Rockies Thursday into Thursday evening, but the risk for severe thunderstorms appears neglible. ...Discussion... The center of a broad and deep, occluding cyclone is forecast to progress across the lower Great Lakes into southwestern Quebec by 12Z Thursday, when a significant trailing cold front may be offshore all the Atlantic Seaboard but perhaps eastern portions of New England. It appears that the southwestern flank of this front will be in the process of stalling and weakening across the western Gulf Basin, and models indicate that the boundary layer may undergo substantive modification across the southwestern Gulf toward the lower Texas coast vicinity late Thursday through Thursday night. This may be accompanied by weak inland boundary-layer moisture return beneath warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air across the southern Great Plains, as renewed cyclogenesis occurs to the lee of the Colorado Rockies. Within and beneath a generally confluent mid-level regime to the east of the Rockies, the cyclone, and supporting mid-level short wave perturbation emerging from larger-scale troughing advancing inland of the Pacific coast, are likely to weaken while progressing eastward through the central Great Plains Thursday night into early Friday. Trailing the lead short wave, models indicate that a more prominent short wave trough will dig inland across central/southern California, and into the lower Colorado Valley by 12Z Friday. ...Central California through southern Great Basin/Rockies... A swath of stronger mid-level cooling overspreading the region in association with the short wave developments is likely to contribute to weak destabilization with daytime heating. It appears that this will become sufficient to support scattered weak afternoon and evening thunderstorm activity, aided by areas of dynamic and orographic forcing for ascent. ...Cape Cod vicinity... Forecast soundings, perhaps most notably the NAM, suggest that lift associated with frontal forcing and/or pre-frontal low-level warm advection may still be contributing to elevated convective development capable of producing lightning around 12Z Thursday, before spreading away from the coast by mid/late morning. ..Kerr.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorm activity is possible across parts of central California and the Great Basin into the Southern Rockies Thursday into Thursday evening, but the risk for severe thunderstorms appears neglible. ...Discussion... The center of a broad and deep, occluding cyclone is forecast to progress across the lower Great Lakes into southwestern Quebec by 12Z Thursday, when a significant trailing cold front may be offshore all the Atlantic Seaboard but perhaps eastern portions of New England. It appears that the southwestern flank of this front will be in the process of stalling and weakening across the western Gulf Basin, and models indicate that the boundary layer may undergo substantive modification across the southwestern Gulf toward the lower Texas coast vicinity late Thursday through Thursday night. This may be accompanied by weak inland boundary-layer moisture return beneath warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air across the southern Great Plains, as renewed cyclogenesis occurs to the lee of the Colorado Rockies. Within and beneath a generally confluent mid-level regime to the east of the Rockies, the cyclone, and supporting mid-level short wave perturbation emerging from larger-scale troughing advancing inland of the Pacific coast, are likely to weaken while progressing eastward through the central Great Plains Thursday night into early Friday. Trailing the lead short wave, models indicate that a more prominent short wave trough will dig inland across central/southern California, and into the lower Colorado Valley by 12Z Friday. ...Central California through southern Great Basin/Rockies... A swath of stronger mid-level cooling overspreading the region in association with the short wave developments is likely to contribute to weak destabilization with daytime heating. It appears that this will become sufficient to support scattered weak afternoon and evening thunderstorm activity, aided by areas of dynamic and orographic forcing for ascent. ...Cape Cod vicinity... Forecast soundings, perhaps most notably the NAM, suggest that lift associated with frontal forcing and/or pre-frontal low-level warm advection may still be contributing to elevated convective development capable of producing lightning around 12Z Thursday, before spreading away from the coast by mid/late morning. ..Kerr.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorm activity is possible across parts of central California and the Great Basin into the Southern Rockies Thursday into Thursday evening, but the risk for severe thunderstorms appears neglible. ...Discussion... The center of a broad and deep, occluding cyclone is forecast to progress across the lower Great Lakes into southwestern Quebec by 12Z Thursday, when a significant trailing cold front may be offshore all the Atlantic Seaboard but perhaps eastern portions of New England. It appears that the southwestern flank of this front will be in the process of stalling and weakening across the western Gulf Basin, and models indicate that the boundary layer may undergo substantive modification across the southwestern Gulf toward the lower Texas coast vicinity late Thursday through Thursday night. This may be accompanied by weak inland boundary-layer moisture return beneath warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air across the southern Great Plains, as renewed cyclogenesis occurs to the lee of the Colorado Rockies. Within and beneath a generally confluent mid-level regime to the east of the Rockies, the cyclone, and supporting mid-level short wave perturbation emerging from larger-scale troughing advancing inland of the Pacific coast, are likely to weaken while progressing eastward through the central Great Plains Thursday night into early Friday. Trailing the lead short wave, models indicate that a more prominent short wave trough will dig inland across central/southern California, and into the lower Colorado Valley by 12Z Friday. ...Central California through southern Great Basin/Rockies... A swath of stronger mid-level cooling overspreading the region in association with the short wave developments is likely to contribute to weak destabilization with daytime heating. It appears that this will become sufficient to support scattered weak afternoon and evening thunderstorm activity, aided by areas of dynamic and orographic forcing for ascent. ...Cape Cod vicinity... Forecast soundings, perhaps most notably the NAM, suggest that lift associated with frontal forcing and/or pre-frontal low-level warm advection may still be contributing to elevated convective development capable of producing lightning around 12Z Thursday, before spreading away from the coast by mid/late morning. ..Kerr.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorm activity is possible across parts of central California and the Great Basin into the Southern Rockies Thursday into Thursday evening, but the risk for severe thunderstorms appears neglible. ...Discussion... The center of a broad and deep, occluding cyclone is forecast to progress across the lower Great Lakes into southwestern Quebec by 12Z Thursday, when a significant trailing cold front may be offshore all the Atlantic Seaboard but perhaps eastern portions of New England. It appears that the southwestern flank of this front will be in the process of stalling and weakening across the western Gulf Basin, and models indicate that the boundary layer may undergo substantive modification across the southwestern Gulf toward the lower Texas coast vicinity late Thursday through Thursday night. This may be accompanied by weak inland boundary-layer moisture return beneath warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air across the southern Great Plains, as renewed cyclogenesis occurs to the lee of the Colorado Rockies. Within and beneath a generally confluent mid-level regime to the east of the Rockies, the cyclone, and supporting mid-level short wave perturbation emerging from larger-scale troughing advancing inland of the Pacific coast, are likely to weaken while progressing eastward through the central Great Plains Thursday night into early Friday. Trailing the lead short wave, models indicate that a more prominent short wave trough will dig inland across central/southern California, and into the lower Colorado Valley by 12Z Friday. ...Central California through southern Great Basin/Rockies... A swath of stronger mid-level cooling overspreading the region in association with the short wave developments is likely to contribute to weak destabilization with daytime heating. It appears that this will become sufficient to support scattered weak afternoon and evening thunderstorm activity, aided by areas of dynamic and orographic forcing for ascent. ...Cape Cod vicinity... Forecast soundings, perhaps most notably the NAM, suggest that lift associated with frontal forcing and/or pre-frontal low-level warm advection may still be contributing to elevated convective development capable of producing lightning around 12Z Thursday, before spreading away from the coast by mid/late morning. ..Kerr.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorm activity is possible across parts of central California and the Great Basin into the Southern Rockies Thursday into Thursday evening, but the risk for severe thunderstorms appears neglible. ...Discussion... The center of a broad and deep, occluding cyclone is forecast to progress across the lower Great Lakes into southwestern Quebec by 12Z Thursday, when a significant trailing cold front may be offshore all the Atlantic Seaboard but perhaps eastern portions of New England. It appears that the southwestern flank of this front will be in the process of stalling and weakening across the western Gulf Basin, and models indicate that the boundary layer may undergo substantive modification across the southwestern Gulf toward the lower Texas coast vicinity late Thursday through Thursday night. This may be accompanied by weak inland boundary-layer moisture return beneath warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air across the southern Great Plains, as renewed cyclogenesis occurs to the lee of the Colorado Rockies. Within and beneath a generally confluent mid-level regime to the east of the Rockies, the cyclone, and supporting mid-level short wave perturbation emerging from larger-scale troughing advancing inland of the Pacific coast, are likely to weaken while progressing eastward through the central Great Plains Thursday night into early Friday. Trailing the lead short wave, models indicate that a more prominent short wave trough will dig inland across central/southern California, and into the lower Colorado Valley by 12Z Friday. ...Central California through southern Great Basin/Rockies... A swath of stronger mid-level cooling overspreading the region in association with the short wave developments is likely to contribute to weak destabilization with daytime heating. It appears that this will become sufficient to support scattered weak afternoon and evening thunderstorm activity, aided by areas of dynamic and orographic forcing for ascent. ...Cape Cod vicinity... Forecast soundings, perhaps most notably the NAM, suggest that lift associated with frontal forcing and/or pre-frontal low-level warm advection may still be contributing to elevated convective development capable of producing lightning around 12Z Thursday, before spreading away from the coast by mid/late morning. ..Kerr.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorm activity is possible across parts of central California and the Great Basin into the Southern Rockies Thursday into Thursday evening, but the risk for severe thunderstorms appears neglible. ...Discussion... The center of a broad and deep, occluding cyclone is forecast to progress across the lower Great Lakes into southwestern Quebec by 12Z Thursday, when a significant trailing cold front may be offshore all the Atlantic Seaboard but perhaps eastern portions of New England. It appears that the southwestern flank of this front will be in the process of stalling and weakening across the western Gulf Basin, and models indicate that the boundary layer may undergo substantive modification across the southwestern Gulf toward the lower Texas coast vicinity late Thursday through Thursday night. This may be accompanied by weak inland boundary-layer moisture return beneath warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air across the southern Great Plains, as renewed cyclogenesis occurs to the lee of the Colorado Rockies. Within and beneath a generally confluent mid-level regime to the east of the Rockies, the cyclone, and supporting mid-level short wave perturbation emerging from larger-scale troughing advancing inland of the Pacific coast, are likely to weaken while progressing eastward through the central Great Plains Thursday night into early Friday. Trailing the lead short wave, models indicate that a more prominent short wave trough will dig inland across central/southern California, and into the lower Colorado Valley by 12Z Friday. ...Central California through southern Great Basin/Rockies... A swath of stronger mid-level cooling overspreading the region in association with the short wave developments is likely to contribute to weak destabilization with daytime heating. It appears that this will become sufficient to support scattered weak afternoon and evening thunderstorm activity, aided by areas of dynamic and orographic forcing for ascent. ...Cape Cod vicinity... Forecast soundings, perhaps most notably the NAM, suggest that lift associated with frontal forcing and/or pre-frontal low-level warm advection may still be contributing to elevated convective development capable of producing lightning around 12Z Thursday, before spreading away from the coast by mid/late morning. ..Kerr.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorm activity is possible across parts of central California and the Great Basin into the Southern Rockies Thursday into Thursday evening, but the risk for severe thunderstorms appears neglible. ...Discussion... The center of a broad and deep, occluding cyclone is forecast to progress across the lower Great Lakes into southwestern Quebec by 12Z Thursday, when a significant trailing cold front may be offshore all the Atlantic Seaboard but perhaps eastern portions of New England. It appears that the southwestern flank of this front will be in the process of stalling and weakening across the western Gulf Basin, and models indicate that the boundary layer may undergo substantive modification across the southwestern Gulf toward the lower Texas coast vicinity late Thursday through Thursday night. This may be accompanied by weak inland boundary-layer moisture return beneath warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air across the southern Great Plains, as renewed cyclogenesis occurs to the lee of the Colorado Rockies. Within and beneath a generally confluent mid-level regime to the east of the Rockies, the cyclone, and supporting mid-level short wave perturbation emerging from larger-scale troughing advancing inland of the Pacific coast, are likely to weaken while progressing eastward through the central Great Plains Thursday night into early Friday. Trailing the lead short wave, models indicate that a more prominent short wave trough will dig inland across central/southern California, and into the lower Colorado Valley by 12Z Friday. ...Central California through southern Great Basin/Rockies... A swath of stronger mid-level cooling overspreading the region in association with the short wave developments is likely to contribute to weak destabilization with daytime heating. It appears that this will become sufficient to support scattered weak afternoon and evening thunderstorm activity, aided by areas of dynamic and orographic forcing for ascent. ...Cape Cod vicinity... Forecast soundings, perhaps most notably the NAM, suggest that lift associated with frontal forcing and/or pre-frontal low-level warm advection may still be contributing to elevated convective development capable of producing lightning around 12Z Thursday, before spreading away from the coast by mid/late morning. ..Kerr.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorm activity is possible across parts of central California and the Great Basin into the Southern Rockies Thursday into Thursday evening, but the risk for severe thunderstorms appears neglible. ...Discussion... The center of a broad and deep, occluding cyclone is forecast to progress across the lower Great Lakes into southwestern Quebec by 12Z Thursday, when a significant trailing cold front may be offshore all the Atlantic Seaboard but perhaps eastern portions of New England. It appears that the southwestern flank of this front will be in the process of stalling and weakening across the western Gulf Basin, and models indicate that the boundary layer may undergo substantive modification across the southwestern Gulf toward the lower Texas coast vicinity late Thursday through Thursday night. This may be accompanied by weak inland boundary-layer moisture return beneath warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air across the southern Great Plains, as renewed cyclogenesis occurs to the lee of the Colorado Rockies. Within and beneath a generally confluent mid-level regime to the east of the Rockies, the cyclone, and supporting mid-level short wave perturbation emerging from larger-scale troughing advancing inland of the Pacific coast, are likely to weaken while progressing eastward through the central Great Plains Thursday night into early Friday. Trailing the lead short wave, models indicate that a more prominent short wave trough will dig inland across central/southern California, and into the lower Colorado Valley by 12Z Friday. ...Central California through southern Great Basin/Rockies... A swath of stronger mid-level cooling overspreading the region in association with the short wave developments is likely to contribute to weak destabilization with daytime heating. It appears that this will become sufficient to support scattered weak afternoon and evening thunderstorm activity, aided by areas of dynamic and orographic forcing for ascent. ...Cape Cod vicinity... Forecast soundings, perhaps most notably the NAM, suggest that lift associated with frontal forcing and/or pre-frontal low-level warm advection may still be contributing to elevated convective development capable of producing lightning around 12Z Thursday, before spreading away from the coast by mid/late morning. ..Kerr.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorm activity is possible across parts of central California and the Great Basin into the Southern Rockies Thursday into Thursday evening, but the risk for severe thunderstorms appears neglible. ...Discussion... The center of a broad and deep, occluding cyclone is forecast to progress across the lower Great Lakes into southwestern Quebec by 12Z Thursday, when a significant trailing cold front may be offshore all the Atlantic Seaboard but perhaps eastern portions of New England. It appears that the southwestern flank of this front will be in the process of stalling and weakening across the western Gulf Basin, and models indicate that the boundary layer may undergo substantive modification across the southwestern Gulf toward the lower Texas coast vicinity late Thursday through Thursday night. This may be accompanied by weak inland boundary-layer moisture return beneath warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air across the southern Great Plains, as renewed cyclogenesis occurs to the lee of the Colorado Rockies. Within and beneath a generally confluent mid-level regime to the east of the Rockies, the cyclone, and supporting mid-level short wave perturbation emerging from larger-scale troughing advancing inland of the Pacific coast, are likely to weaken while progressing eastward through the central Great Plains Thursday night into early Friday. Trailing the lead short wave, models indicate that a more prominent short wave trough will dig inland across central/southern California, and into the lower Colorado Valley by 12Z Friday. ...Central California through southern Great Basin/Rockies... A swath of stronger mid-level cooling overspreading the region in association with the short wave developments is likely to contribute to weak destabilization with daytime heating. It appears that this will become sufficient to support scattered weak afternoon and evening thunderstorm activity, aided by areas of dynamic and orographic forcing for ascent. ...Cape Cod vicinity... Forecast soundings, perhaps most notably the NAM, suggest that lift associated with frontal forcing and/or pre-frontal low-level warm advection may still be contributing to elevated convective development capable of producing lightning around 12Z Thursday, before spreading away from the coast by mid/late morning. ..Kerr.. 03/05/2025 Read more