Aggregator

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Probabilities for thunderstorms appear negligible across the U.S. Friday through Friday night. ...Discussion... A broad and deep, occluded cyclone, initially centered over southwestern Quebec, may undergo substantive further deepening during this period, with a new primary center developing and migrating north of the Canadian Maritimes into Newfoundland and Labrador. In its wake, models indicate that cyclonic mid-level flow characterized by seasonably low heights will linger across the Great Lakes vicinity through Northeast. As much of the remainder of the U.S. remains under the influence of a belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, mid-level flow is likely to become increasing confluent across and east of the central Great Plains, downstream of an evolving low within larger-scale troughing digging inland of the southern California coast by 12Z Friday. This perturbation is forecast to turn eastward to the north of the Southwestern international border vicinity Friday through Friday night, preceded by an increasingly sheared perturbation across the central Great Plains into middle Mississippi Valley. In association with the lead impulse, an initially more prominent surface low over the central Great Plains is forecast to weaken considerably while rapidly translating eastward, trailed by a reinforcing cold front which may advance through the Cumberland Plateau, Mid South and south central Great Plains by late Friday night. Ahead of the front, a deepening moist boundary-layer may develop across the north central Gulf toward coastal areas between southeastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. However, models indicate that this will remain capped by warm, dry air the lower/mid-troposphere. ...Four Corners States... Beneath the mid-level cold core overspreading the Southwest and southern Great Basin into southern Rockies, it appears that a cold and/or dry boundary layer (even with insolation) will tend to minimize the risk for weak thunderstorm activity. ..Kerr.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Probabilities for thunderstorms appear negligible across the U.S. Friday through Friday night. ...Discussion... A broad and deep, occluded cyclone, initially centered over southwestern Quebec, may undergo substantive further deepening during this period, with a new primary center developing and migrating north of the Canadian Maritimes into Newfoundland and Labrador. In its wake, models indicate that cyclonic mid-level flow characterized by seasonably low heights will linger across the Great Lakes vicinity through Northeast. As much of the remainder of the U.S. remains under the influence of a belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, mid-level flow is likely to become increasing confluent across and east of the central Great Plains, downstream of an evolving low within larger-scale troughing digging inland of the southern California coast by 12Z Friday. This perturbation is forecast to turn eastward to the north of the Southwestern international border vicinity Friday through Friday night, preceded by an increasingly sheared perturbation across the central Great Plains into middle Mississippi Valley. In association with the lead impulse, an initially more prominent surface low over the central Great Plains is forecast to weaken considerably while rapidly translating eastward, trailed by a reinforcing cold front which may advance through the Cumberland Plateau, Mid South and south central Great Plains by late Friday night. Ahead of the front, a deepening moist boundary-layer may develop across the north central Gulf toward coastal areas between southeastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. However, models indicate that this will remain capped by warm, dry air the lower/mid-troposphere. ...Four Corners States... Beneath the mid-level cold core overspreading the Southwest and southern Great Basin into southern Rockies, it appears that a cold and/or dry boundary layer (even with insolation) will tend to minimize the risk for weak thunderstorm activity. ..Kerr.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Probabilities for thunderstorms appear negligible across the U.S. Friday through Friday night. ...Discussion... A broad and deep, occluded cyclone, initially centered over southwestern Quebec, may undergo substantive further deepening during this period, with a new primary center developing and migrating north of the Canadian Maritimes into Newfoundland and Labrador. In its wake, models indicate that cyclonic mid-level flow characterized by seasonably low heights will linger across the Great Lakes vicinity through Northeast. As much of the remainder of the U.S. remains under the influence of a belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, mid-level flow is likely to become increasing confluent across and east of the central Great Plains, downstream of an evolving low within larger-scale troughing digging inland of the southern California coast by 12Z Friday. This perturbation is forecast to turn eastward to the north of the Southwestern international border vicinity Friday through Friday night, preceded by an increasingly sheared perturbation across the central Great Plains into middle Mississippi Valley. In association with the lead impulse, an initially more prominent surface low over the central Great Plains is forecast to weaken considerably while rapidly translating eastward, trailed by a reinforcing cold front which may advance through the Cumberland Plateau, Mid South and south central Great Plains by late Friday night. Ahead of the front, a deepening moist boundary-layer may develop across the north central Gulf toward coastal areas between southeastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. However, models indicate that this will remain capped by warm, dry air the lower/mid-troposphere. ...Four Corners States... Beneath the mid-level cold core overspreading the Southwest and southern Great Basin into southern Rockies, it appears that a cold and/or dry boundary layer (even with insolation) will tend to minimize the risk for weak thunderstorm activity. ..Kerr.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Probabilities for thunderstorms appear negligible across the U.S. Friday through Friday night. ...Discussion... A broad and deep, occluded cyclone, initially centered over southwestern Quebec, may undergo substantive further deepening during this period, with a new primary center developing and migrating north of the Canadian Maritimes into Newfoundland and Labrador. In its wake, models indicate that cyclonic mid-level flow characterized by seasonably low heights will linger across the Great Lakes vicinity through Northeast. As much of the remainder of the U.S. remains under the influence of a belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, mid-level flow is likely to become increasing confluent across and east of the central Great Plains, downstream of an evolving low within larger-scale troughing digging inland of the southern California coast by 12Z Friday. This perturbation is forecast to turn eastward to the north of the Southwestern international border vicinity Friday through Friday night, preceded by an increasingly sheared perturbation across the central Great Plains into middle Mississippi Valley. In association with the lead impulse, an initially more prominent surface low over the central Great Plains is forecast to weaken considerably while rapidly translating eastward, trailed by a reinforcing cold front which may advance through the Cumberland Plateau, Mid South and south central Great Plains by late Friday night. Ahead of the front, a deepening moist boundary-layer may develop across the north central Gulf toward coastal areas between southeastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. However, models indicate that this will remain capped by warm, dry air the lower/mid-troposphere. ...Four Corners States... Beneath the mid-level cold core overspreading the Southwest and southern Great Basin into southern Rockies, it appears that a cold and/or dry boundary layer (even with insolation) will tend to minimize the risk for weak thunderstorm activity. ..Kerr.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Probabilities for thunderstorms appear negligible across the U.S. Friday through Friday night. ...Discussion... A broad and deep, occluded cyclone, initially centered over southwestern Quebec, may undergo substantive further deepening during this period, with a new primary center developing and migrating north of the Canadian Maritimes into Newfoundland and Labrador. In its wake, models indicate that cyclonic mid-level flow characterized by seasonably low heights will linger across the Great Lakes vicinity through Northeast. As much of the remainder of the U.S. remains under the influence of a belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, mid-level flow is likely to become increasing confluent across and east of the central Great Plains, downstream of an evolving low within larger-scale troughing digging inland of the southern California coast by 12Z Friday. This perturbation is forecast to turn eastward to the north of the Southwestern international border vicinity Friday through Friday night, preceded by an increasingly sheared perturbation across the central Great Plains into middle Mississippi Valley. In association with the lead impulse, an initially more prominent surface low over the central Great Plains is forecast to weaken considerably while rapidly translating eastward, trailed by a reinforcing cold front which may advance through the Cumberland Plateau, Mid South and south central Great Plains by late Friday night. Ahead of the front, a deepening moist boundary-layer may develop across the north central Gulf toward coastal areas between southeastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. However, models indicate that this will remain capped by warm, dry air the lower/mid-troposphere. ...Four Corners States... Beneath the mid-level cold core overspreading the Southwest and southern Great Basin into southern Rockies, it appears that a cold and/or dry boundary layer (even with insolation) will tend to minimize the risk for weak thunderstorm activity. ..Kerr.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Probabilities for thunderstorms appear negligible across the U.S. Friday through Friday night. ...Discussion... A broad and deep, occluded cyclone, initially centered over southwestern Quebec, may undergo substantive further deepening during this period, with a new primary center developing and migrating north of the Canadian Maritimes into Newfoundland and Labrador. In its wake, models indicate that cyclonic mid-level flow characterized by seasonably low heights will linger across the Great Lakes vicinity through Northeast. As much of the remainder of the U.S. remains under the influence of a belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, mid-level flow is likely to become increasing confluent across and east of the central Great Plains, downstream of an evolving low within larger-scale troughing digging inland of the southern California coast by 12Z Friday. This perturbation is forecast to turn eastward to the north of the Southwestern international border vicinity Friday through Friday night, preceded by an increasingly sheared perturbation across the central Great Plains into middle Mississippi Valley. In association with the lead impulse, an initially more prominent surface low over the central Great Plains is forecast to weaken considerably while rapidly translating eastward, trailed by a reinforcing cold front which may advance through the Cumberland Plateau, Mid South and south central Great Plains by late Friday night. Ahead of the front, a deepening moist boundary-layer may develop across the north central Gulf toward coastal areas between southeastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. However, models indicate that this will remain capped by warm, dry air the lower/mid-troposphere. ...Four Corners States... Beneath the mid-level cold core overspreading the Southwest and southern Great Basin into southern Rockies, it appears that a cold and/or dry boundary layer (even with insolation) will tend to minimize the risk for weak thunderstorm activity. ..Kerr.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Probabilities for thunderstorms appear negligible across the U.S. Friday through Friday night. ...Discussion... A broad and deep, occluded cyclone, initially centered over southwestern Quebec, may undergo substantive further deepening during this period, with a new primary center developing and migrating north of the Canadian Maritimes into Newfoundland and Labrador. In its wake, models indicate that cyclonic mid-level flow characterized by seasonably low heights will linger across the Great Lakes vicinity through Northeast. As much of the remainder of the U.S. remains under the influence of a belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, mid-level flow is likely to become increasing confluent across and east of the central Great Plains, downstream of an evolving low within larger-scale troughing digging inland of the southern California coast by 12Z Friday. This perturbation is forecast to turn eastward to the north of the Southwestern international border vicinity Friday through Friday night, preceded by an increasingly sheared perturbation across the central Great Plains into middle Mississippi Valley. In association with the lead impulse, an initially more prominent surface low over the central Great Plains is forecast to weaken considerably while rapidly translating eastward, trailed by a reinforcing cold front which may advance through the Cumberland Plateau, Mid South and south central Great Plains by late Friday night. Ahead of the front, a deepening moist boundary-layer may develop across the north central Gulf toward coastal areas between southeastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. However, models indicate that this will remain capped by warm, dry air the lower/mid-troposphere. ...Four Corners States... Beneath the mid-level cold core overspreading the Southwest and southern Great Basin into southern Rockies, it appears that a cold and/or dry boundary layer (even with insolation) will tend to minimize the risk for weak thunderstorm activity. ..Kerr.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Probabilities for thunderstorms appear negligible across the U.S. Friday through Friday night. ...Discussion... A broad and deep, occluded cyclone, initially centered over southwestern Quebec, may undergo substantive further deepening during this period, with a new primary center developing and migrating north of the Canadian Maritimes into Newfoundland and Labrador. In its wake, models indicate that cyclonic mid-level flow characterized by seasonably low heights will linger across the Great Lakes vicinity through Northeast. As much of the remainder of the U.S. remains under the influence of a belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, mid-level flow is likely to become increasing confluent across and east of the central Great Plains, downstream of an evolving low within larger-scale troughing digging inland of the southern California coast by 12Z Friday. This perturbation is forecast to turn eastward to the north of the Southwestern international border vicinity Friday through Friday night, preceded by an increasingly sheared perturbation across the central Great Plains into middle Mississippi Valley. In association with the lead impulse, an initially more prominent surface low over the central Great Plains is forecast to weaken considerably while rapidly translating eastward, trailed by a reinforcing cold front which may advance through the Cumberland Plateau, Mid South and south central Great Plains by late Friday night. Ahead of the front, a deepening moist boundary-layer may develop across the north central Gulf toward coastal areas between southeastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. However, models indicate that this will remain capped by warm, dry air the lower/mid-troposphere. ...Four Corners States... Beneath the mid-level cold core overspreading the Southwest and southern Great Basin into southern Rockies, it appears that a cold and/or dry boundary layer (even with insolation) will tend to minimize the risk for weak thunderstorm activity. ..Kerr.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Probabilities for thunderstorms appear negligible across the U.S. Friday through Friday night. ...Discussion... A broad and deep, occluded cyclone, initially centered over southwestern Quebec, may undergo substantive further deepening during this period, with a new primary center developing and migrating north of the Canadian Maritimes into Newfoundland and Labrador. In its wake, models indicate that cyclonic mid-level flow characterized by seasonably low heights will linger across the Great Lakes vicinity through Northeast. As much of the remainder of the U.S. remains under the influence of a belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, mid-level flow is likely to become increasing confluent across and east of the central Great Plains, downstream of an evolving low within larger-scale troughing digging inland of the southern California coast by 12Z Friday. This perturbation is forecast to turn eastward to the north of the Southwestern international border vicinity Friday through Friday night, preceded by an increasingly sheared perturbation across the central Great Plains into middle Mississippi Valley. In association with the lead impulse, an initially more prominent surface low over the central Great Plains is forecast to weaken considerably while rapidly translating eastward, trailed by a reinforcing cold front which may advance through the Cumberland Plateau, Mid South and south central Great Plains by late Friday night. Ahead of the front, a deepening moist boundary-layer may develop across the north central Gulf toward coastal areas between southeastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. However, models indicate that this will remain capped by warm, dry air the lower/mid-troposphere. ...Four Corners States... Beneath the mid-level cold core overspreading the Southwest and southern Great Basin into southern Rockies, it appears that a cold and/or dry boundary layer (even with insolation) will tend to minimize the risk for weak thunderstorm activity. ..Kerr.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Probabilities for thunderstorms appear negligible across the U.S. Friday through Friday night. ...Discussion... A broad and deep, occluded cyclone, initially centered over southwestern Quebec, may undergo substantive further deepening during this period, with a new primary center developing and migrating north of the Canadian Maritimes into Newfoundland and Labrador. In its wake, models indicate that cyclonic mid-level flow characterized by seasonably low heights will linger across the Great Lakes vicinity through Northeast. As much of the remainder of the U.S. remains under the influence of a belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, mid-level flow is likely to become increasing confluent across and east of the central Great Plains, downstream of an evolving low within larger-scale troughing digging inland of the southern California coast by 12Z Friday. This perturbation is forecast to turn eastward to the north of the Southwestern international border vicinity Friday through Friday night, preceded by an increasingly sheared perturbation across the central Great Plains into middle Mississippi Valley. In association with the lead impulse, an initially more prominent surface low over the central Great Plains is forecast to weaken considerably while rapidly translating eastward, trailed by a reinforcing cold front which may advance through the Cumberland Plateau, Mid South and south central Great Plains by late Friday night. Ahead of the front, a deepening moist boundary-layer may develop across the north central Gulf toward coastal areas between southeastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. However, models indicate that this will remain capped by warm, dry air the lower/mid-troposphere. ...Four Corners States... Beneath the mid-level cold core overspreading the Southwest and southern Great Basin into southern Rockies, it appears that a cold and/or dry boundary layer (even with insolation) will tend to minimize the risk for weak thunderstorm activity. ..Kerr.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Probabilities for thunderstorms appear negligible across the U.S. Friday through Friday night. ...Discussion... A broad and deep, occluded cyclone, initially centered over southwestern Quebec, may undergo substantive further deepening during this period, with a new primary center developing and migrating north of the Canadian Maritimes into Newfoundland and Labrador. In its wake, models indicate that cyclonic mid-level flow characterized by seasonably low heights will linger across the Great Lakes vicinity through Northeast. As much of the remainder of the U.S. remains under the influence of a belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, mid-level flow is likely to become increasing confluent across and east of the central Great Plains, downstream of an evolving low within larger-scale troughing digging inland of the southern California coast by 12Z Friday. This perturbation is forecast to turn eastward to the north of the Southwestern international border vicinity Friday through Friday night, preceded by an increasingly sheared perturbation across the central Great Plains into middle Mississippi Valley. In association with the lead impulse, an initially more prominent surface low over the central Great Plains is forecast to weaken considerably while rapidly translating eastward, trailed by a reinforcing cold front which may advance through the Cumberland Plateau, Mid South and south central Great Plains by late Friday night. Ahead of the front, a deepening moist boundary-layer may develop across the north central Gulf toward coastal areas between southeastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. However, models indicate that this will remain capped by warm, dry air the lower/mid-troposphere. ...Four Corners States... Beneath the mid-level cold core overspreading the Southwest and southern Great Basin into southern Rockies, it appears that a cold and/or dry boundary layer (even with insolation) will tend to minimize the risk for weak thunderstorm activity. ..Kerr.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Probabilities for thunderstorms appear negligible across the U.S. Friday through Friday night. ...Discussion... A broad and deep, occluded cyclone, initially centered over southwestern Quebec, may undergo substantive further deepening during this period, with a new primary center developing and migrating north of the Canadian Maritimes into Newfoundland and Labrador. In its wake, models indicate that cyclonic mid-level flow characterized by seasonably low heights will linger across the Great Lakes vicinity through Northeast. As much of the remainder of the U.S. remains under the influence of a belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, mid-level flow is likely to become increasing confluent across and east of the central Great Plains, downstream of an evolving low within larger-scale troughing digging inland of the southern California coast by 12Z Friday. This perturbation is forecast to turn eastward to the north of the Southwestern international border vicinity Friday through Friday night, preceded by an increasingly sheared perturbation across the central Great Plains into middle Mississippi Valley. In association with the lead impulse, an initially more prominent surface low over the central Great Plains is forecast to weaken considerably while rapidly translating eastward, trailed by a reinforcing cold front which may advance through the Cumberland Plateau, Mid South and south central Great Plains by late Friday night. Ahead of the front, a deepening moist boundary-layer may develop across the north central Gulf toward coastal areas between southeastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. However, models indicate that this will remain capped by warm, dry air the lower/mid-troposphere. ...Four Corners States... Beneath the mid-level cold core overspreading the Southwest and southern Great Basin into southern Rockies, it appears that a cold and/or dry boundary layer (even with insolation) will tend to minimize the risk for weak thunderstorm activity. ..Kerr.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Probabilities for thunderstorms appear negligible across the U.S. Friday through Friday night. ...Discussion... A broad and deep, occluded cyclone, initially centered over southwestern Quebec, may undergo substantive further deepening during this period, with a new primary center developing and migrating north of the Canadian Maritimes into Newfoundland and Labrador. In its wake, models indicate that cyclonic mid-level flow characterized by seasonably low heights will linger across the Great Lakes vicinity through Northeast. As much of the remainder of the U.S. remains under the influence of a belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, mid-level flow is likely to become increasing confluent across and east of the central Great Plains, downstream of an evolving low within larger-scale troughing digging inland of the southern California coast by 12Z Friday. This perturbation is forecast to turn eastward to the north of the Southwestern international border vicinity Friday through Friday night, preceded by an increasingly sheared perturbation across the central Great Plains into middle Mississippi Valley. In association with the lead impulse, an initially more prominent surface low over the central Great Plains is forecast to weaken considerably while rapidly translating eastward, trailed by a reinforcing cold front which may advance through the Cumberland Plateau, Mid South and south central Great Plains by late Friday night. Ahead of the front, a deepening moist boundary-layer may develop across the north central Gulf toward coastal areas between southeastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. However, models indicate that this will remain capped by warm, dry air the lower/mid-troposphere. ...Four Corners States... Beneath the mid-level cold core overspreading the Southwest and southern Great Basin into southern Rockies, it appears that a cold and/or dry boundary layer (even with insolation) will tend to minimize the risk for weak thunderstorm activity. ..Kerr.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Probabilities for thunderstorms appear negligible across the U.S. Friday through Friday night. ...Discussion... A broad and deep, occluded cyclone, initially centered over southwestern Quebec, may undergo substantive further deepening during this period, with a new primary center developing and migrating north of the Canadian Maritimes into Newfoundland and Labrador. In its wake, models indicate that cyclonic mid-level flow characterized by seasonably low heights will linger across the Great Lakes vicinity through Northeast. As much of the remainder of the U.S. remains under the influence of a belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, mid-level flow is likely to become increasing confluent across and east of the central Great Plains, downstream of an evolving low within larger-scale troughing digging inland of the southern California coast by 12Z Friday. This perturbation is forecast to turn eastward to the north of the Southwestern international border vicinity Friday through Friday night, preceded by an increasingly sheared perturbation across the central Great Plains into middle Mississippi Valley. In association with the lead impulse, an initially more prominent surface low over the central Great Plains is forecast to weaken considerably while rapidly translating eastward, trailed by a reinforcing cold front which may advance through the Cumberland Plateau, Mid South and south central Great Plains by late Friday night. Ahead of the front, a deepening moist boundary-layer may develop across the north central Gulf toward coastal areas between southeastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. However, models indicate that this will remain capped by warm, dry air the lower/mid-troposphere. ...Four Corners States... Beneath the mid-level cold core overspreading the Southwest and southern Great Basin into southern Rockies, it appears that a cold and/or dry boundary layer (even with insolation) will tend to minimize the risk for weak thunderstorm activity. ..Kerr.. 03/05/2025 Read more

MD 0144 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 23... FOR FAR EASTERN ALABAMA AND NORTHWESTERN GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0144 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Areas affected...Far eastern Alabama and northwestern Georgia Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 23... Valid 050536Z - 050730Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 23 continues. SUMMARY...Damaging winds are expected along the surging squall line. DISCUSSION...Strongly forced squall line continues its eastward progression at roughly 30kt. While buoyancy remains weak, very strong ESRH is noted ahead of the convection. Latest 1km VAD winds at FFC are 70kt and this may continue to favor stronger flow mixing down as the linear MCS advances east over the next few hours. With time, forecast soundings do suggest convection will gradually weaken, perhaps limiting the downward transfer of flow. Until then, damaging winds are likely along the line. ..Darrow.. 03/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX... LAT...LON 32268529 34688492 34598395 32078440 32268529 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will build over the Great Plains as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic, with another mid-level trough amplifying along the West Coast today. As a strong surface cyclone ejects into Ontario from the Great Lakes region, strong and somewhat dry northwesterly surface flow will overspread portions of the southern Plains. However, marginally supportive RH atop fuels that have recently received appreciable rainfall suggests that Elevated highlights are not currently warranted. Dry southerly flow will also prevail across portions of eastern New Mexico, but overlapping Elevated conditions should be localized at best. ..Squitieri.. 03/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will build over the Great Plains as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic, with another mid-level trough amplifying along the West Coast today. As a strong surface cyclone ejects into Ontario from the Great Lakes region, strong and somewhat dry northwesterly surface flow will overspread portions of the southern Plains. However, marginally supportive RH atop fuels that have recently received appreciable rainfall suggests that Elevated highlights are not currently warranted. Dry southerly flow will also prevail across portions of eastern New Mexico, but overlapping Elevated conditions should be localized at best. ..Squitieri.. 03/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will build over the Great Plains as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic, with another mid-level trough amplifying along the West Coast today. As a strong surface cyclone ejects into Ontario from the Great Lakes region, strong and somewhat dry northwesterly surface flow will overspread portions of the southern Plains. However, marginally supportive RH atop fuels that have recently received appreciable rainfall suggests that Elevated highlights are not currently warranted. Dry southerly flow will also prevail across portions of eastern New Mexico, but overlapping Elevated conditions should be localized at best. ..Squitieri.. 03/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will build over the Great Plains as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic, with another mid-level trough amplifying along the West Coast today. As a strong surface cyclone ejects into Ontario from the Great Lakes region, strong and somewhat dry northwesterly surface flow will overspread portions of the southern Plains. However, marginally supportive RH atop fuels that have recently received appreciable rainfall suggests that Elevated highlights are not currently warranted. Dry southerly flow will also prevail across portions of eastern New Mexico, but overlapping Elevated conditions should be localized at best. ..Squitieri.. 03/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will build over the Great Plains as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic, with another mid-level trough amplifying along the West Coast today. As a strong surface cyclone ejects into Ontario from the Great Lakes region, strong and somewhat dry northwesterly surface flow will overspread portions of the southern Plains. However, marginally supportive RH atop fuels that have recently received appreciable rainfall suggests that Elevated highlights are not currently warranted. Dry southerly flow will also prevail across portions of eastern New Mexico, but overlapping Elevated conditions should be localized at best. ..Squitieri.. 03/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more